politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Just over 14 months to go to GE2015 and LAB’s position rema
Since before Christmas I’ve been maintaining an average of the four main party shares from the 5 YouGov polls that appear every week. This enables us to follow trends much better than looking at individual polls from the firm which like all surveys can sometimes be affected by sampling issues.
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First! And true......0
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Good morning to OGH.
I was wondering if we might not have a discussion as to what dear old Sean Thomas was on last night...0 -
He was on pb last night.Innocent_Abroad said:Good morning to OGH.
I was wondering if we might not have a discussion as to what dear old Sean Thomas was on last night...0 -
- "What is very difficult to forecast from where we are at the moment is a CON majority."
It is not just the requirement for a 7 point lead that hinders the Tories, it is the fact that they have excluded themselves from vast geographical spreads of the UK: Scotland, Northern Ireland, most of Wales, and most or urban and northern England.
That makes the medium-sized towns of central and southern England the entrenched frontline of the next UK GE. But is it quite simply too narrow a front for the Tories to ever achieve another Westminster majority pre-independence?0 -
ROFL - that's a keeper. Never say never in politics and slowly slowly catchy monkey. you might just as easily say Scotland will never vote yes given the latest ICM but most people wouldn't be that silly.Stuart_Dickson said:- "What is very difficult to forecast from where we are at the moment is a CON majority."
It is not just the requirement for a 7 point lead that hinders the Tories, it is the fact that they have excluded themselves from vast geographical spreads of the UK: Scotland, Northern Ireland, most of Wales, and most or urban and northern England.
That makes the medium-sized towns of central and southern England the entrenched frontline of the next UK GE. But is it quite simply too narrow a front for the Tories to ever achieve another Westminster majority pre-independence?0 -
Another "union dividend" (sic).malcolmg said:We are really seeing the benefits of the union nowadays:
SCOTLAND's biggest food bank has run out of food as the number of poverty-stricken Scots turning to food banks for help reaches its hightest level ever.
http://www.heraldscotland.com/news/home-news/the-food-bank-with-no-food.235094220 -
There ought to be a better way of describing this phenomenon than favouring Labour. It gives the impression the system could be "corrected" to even out this bias, but as we all know it is largely due to Labour supporters in safe seats not voting, whereas it looks as if Labour's vote does turn out in close elections.OGH in OP said:We’ve discussed many times before on PB the huge challenge facing the Tories because of the way the electoral system favours Labour. My reckoning is that the blues could be 3-4% ahead in national vote share and still be behind Labour on the number of seats.
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Please note that is was a question, not a statement.felix said:
ROFL - that's a keeper. Never say never in politics and slowly slowly catchy monkey.Stuart_Dickson said:- "What is very difficult to forecast from where we are at the moment is a CON majority."
It is not just the requirement for a 7 point lead that hinders the Tories, it is the fact that they have excluded themselves from vast geographical spreads of the UK: Scotland, Northern Ireland, most of Wales, and most or urban and northern England.
That makes the medium-sized towns of central and southern England the entrenched frontline of the next UK GE. But is it quite simply too narrow a front for the Tories to ever achieve another Westminster majority pre-independence?
If you like, you could try to answer my question. For starters, how exactly do you see Cameron's team managing to win significant numbers of MPs in Scotland, Wales and northern and urban England? If you can provide a convincing reply you may convince readers. Otherwise...
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Maybe time to send some food parcels from SwedenStuart_Dickson said:
Another "union dividend" (sic).malcolmg said:We are really seeing the benefits of the union nowadays:
SCOTLAND's biggest food bank has run out of food as the number of poverty-stricken Scots turning to food banks for help reaches its hightest level ever.
http://www.heraldscotland.com/news/home-news/the-food-bank-with-no-food.235094220 -
If Cameron can win the votes of some Labour 2010 voters - the better the nurse for fear of worse demographic, perhaps - then he can still win. I don't expect him to, but I think it's within the window of opportunity.0
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Obesity rising in Salmond's famine ridden Scotland;Stuart_Dickson said:
Another "union dividend" (sic).malcolmg said:We are really seeing the benefits of the union nowadays:
SCOTLAND's biggest food bank has run out of food as the number of poverty-stricken Scots turning to food banks for help reaches its hightest level ever.
http://www.heraldscotland.com/news/home-news/the-food-bank-with-no-food.23509422
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-25102035
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What disturbs me as a tory isn;t the polls but the government's fiscal position.
I've thought that a combination of tax cuts, concessions from Europe, good growth, improving finances and better weather could easily swing the polls very significantly at any moment.
Avery's analysis of the recent budget figures suggest that tax cuts are not on the agenda and the commitment to fiscal discipline is more spin than fact.
And the tories will never win like that. And they will not deserve to.0 -
Oh dear - looks like a nerve has been touched. Polls now are mere snapshots - let's look again nearer the time. I neither wish nor care to convince readers of anything - not that desperate.Stuart_Dickson said:
Please note that is was a question, not a statement.felix said:
ROFL - that's a keeper. Never say never in politics and slowly slowly catchy monkey.Stuart_Dickson said:- "What is very difficult to forecast from where we are at the moment is a CON majority."
It is not just the requirement for a 7 point lead that hinders the Tories, it is the fact that they have excluded themselves from vast geographical spreads of the UK: Scotland, Northern Ireland, most of Wales, and most or urban and northern England.
That makes the medium-sized towns of central and southern England the entrenched frontline of the next UK GE. But is it quite simply too narrow a front for the Tories to ever achieve another Westminster majority pre-independence?
If you like, you could try to answer my question. For starters, how exactly do you see Cameron's team managing to win significant numbers of MPs in Scotland, Wales and northern and urban England? If you can provide a convincing reply you may convince readers. Otherwise...0 -
HahahahahaMonikerDiCanio said:
Obesity rising in Salmond's famine ridden Scotland;Stuart_Dickson said:
Another "union dividend" (sic).malcolmg said:We are really seeing the benefits of the union nowadays:
SCOTLAND's biggest food bank has run out of food as the number of poverty-stricken Scots turning to food banks for help reaches its hightest level ever.
http://www.heraldscotland.com/news/home-news/the-food-bank-with-no-food.23509422
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-251020350 -
A fair point. We need a new shorthand to describe this.DecrepitJohnL said:
There ought to be a better way of describing this phenomenon than favouring Labour. It gives the impression the system could be "corrected" to even out this bias, but as we all know it is largely due to Labour supporters in safe seats not voting, whereas it looks as if Labour's vote does turn out in close elections.OGH in OP said:We’ve discussed many times before on PB the huge challenge facing the Tories because of the way the electoral system favours Labour. My reckoning is that the blues could be 3-4% ahead in national vote share and still be behind Labour on the number of seats.
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The next big event is the budget.A chance for Osborne to change the narrative.
The other big unknown is the Nick-Nigel debate.Will it generate enough interest with the big two not participating?
It could lead to Lib Dems pulling some voters back from Labour and also UKIP consolidating Con voters/lose voters back to Con.0 -
'After bullying and Bowie there will be nothing united about this Kingdom following the referendum ...
In September, at a conference in Orkney, Better Together's Ian Davidson MP declared that the No campaign had already won and all that was left was "to bayonet the wounded".
http://www.heraldscotland.com/comment/columnists/after-bullying-and-bowie-there-will-be-nothing-united-about-this-kingdom-followin.23509172
... One of the untold stories of the referendum has been the tension within the Labour movement in Scotland as the UK Labour establishment has tried to keep a lid on it. It burst into the open last week when the STUC leader, Grahame Smith, openly criticised the Better Together campaign.
... Many Scots voters, Yes and No, felt belittled by George Osborne's punitive intervention.
... The UK political establishment has clearly forgotten that the Union of 1707 was supposed to have been a partnership not an annexation.
... Perhaps Scots were deluding themselves that this was a partnership of equals, but that is what most genuinely believed. Very few people in Scotland in the 19th or 20th centuries felt that Scotland was a colony of England, or was oppressed by England or that Scotland had been extinguished. Only now, thanks to a clodhopping Chancellor and a myopic Westminster opposition, has that idea acquired any traction. Whether they vote Yes or No in September, I suspect the Scots will never feel quite the same about the UK. The Osborne diktat has turned what was a great moral project into an exercise in crude power politics. In truth, these callow politicians are not fit to call themselves Unionist. They haven't a clue what the word means.
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If you can provide a convincing reply you may convince readers. Otherwise...
Employment is one way. The numbers show that private sector jobs are being created in very significant numbers in areas like the midlands, the north west and even the north east.
I can;t pretend to know the situation on the ground, but the employment reports do show that this is the case.
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http://www.heraldscotland.com/comment/columnists/after-bullying-and-bowie-there-will-be-nothing-united-about-this-kingdom-followin.23509172Stuart_Dickson said:'After bullying and Bowie there will be nothing united about this Kingdom following the referendum ...
In September, at a conference in Orkney, Better Together's Ian Davidson MP declared that the No campaign had already won and all that was left was "to bayonet the wounded".
... One of the untold stories of the referendum has been the tension within the Labour movement in Scotland as the UK Labour establishment has tried to keep a lid on it. It burst into the open last week when the STUC leader, Grahame Smith, openly criticised the Better Together campaign.
... Many Scots voters, Yes and No, felt belittled by George Osborne's punitive intervention.
... The UK political establishment has clearly forgotten that the Union of 1707 was supposed to have been a partnership not an annexation.
... Perhaps Scots were deluding themselves that this was a partnership of equals, but that is what most genuinely believed. Very few people in Scotland in the 19th or 20th centuries felt that Scotland was a colony of England, or was oppressed by England or that Scotland had been extinguished. Only now, thanks to a clodhopping Chancellor and a myopic Westminster opposition, has that idea acquired any traction. Whether they vote Yes or No in September, I suspect the Scots will never feel quite the same about the UK. The Osborne diktat has turned what was a great moral project into an exercise in crude power politics. In truth, these callow politicians are not fit to call themselves Unionist. They haven't a clue what the word means.
Oh dear Scotland being bullied by Osborne AND David Bowie - diddums!0 -
One or two little factoids to throw into OGH's little Sunday morning potboiler :
1. Election still 15 months away.
2. Labour lead of 4/6 points is hardly insurmountable or historically large.
3. Ed Miliband - Nuff said.
4. YouGov not the top rated pollster.
5. It's the economy stupid.
6. IMHO increased and differential turnout will considerably assist the Conservatives.
7. My ARSE shows Con largest party and going away ....
And .... the most reliable PB indicator of all ....
8. Rogerdamus predicts a Labour majority !!0 -
If Cameron was unable to win these LAB voters in 2010 it is hard to see him getting many converts next year.OblitusSumMe said:If Cameron can win the votes of some Labour 2010 voters - the better the nurse for fear of worse demographic, perhaps - then he can still win. I don't expect him to, but I think it's within the window of opportunity.
The other problem is going to be taking the LD seats that the seat projectors suggest CON should get on UNS. The evidence is that this wil be very challenging where a sitting MP is standing again.
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A chance for Osborne to change the narrative.
The narrative on the economy is already flowing entirely in the coalition's direction. It now remains for Osborne to start sharing the proceeds of austerity with voters.
And that is what worries me. Avery suggests Osborne has chosen to spend rather than save.
The tories will not win without tax cuts and a very reduced deficit.0 -
Oh dear Scotland being bullied by Osborne AND David Bowie - diddums!felix said:
http://www.heraldscotland.com/comment/columnists/after-bullying-and-bowie-there-will-be-nothing-united-about-this-kingdom-followin.23509172Stuart_Dickson said:'After bullying and Bowie there will be nothing united about this Kingdom following the referendum ...
In September, at a conference in Orkney, Better Together's Ian Davidson MP declared that the No campaign had already won and all that was left was "to bayonet the wounded".
... One of the untold stories of the referendum has been the tension within the Labour movement in Scotland as the UK Labour establishment has tried to keep a lid on it. It burst into the open last week when the STUC leader, Grahame Smith, openly criticised the Better Together campaign.
... Many Scots voters, Yes and No, felt belittled by George Osborne's punitive intervention.
... The UK political establishment has clearly forgotten that the Union of 1707 was supposed to have been a partnership not an annexation.
... Perhaps Scots were deluding themselves that this was a partnership of equals, but that is what most genuinely believed. Very few people in Scotland in the 19th or 20th centuries felt that Scotland was a colony of England, or was oppressed by England or that Scotland had been extinguished. Only now, thanks to a clodhopping Chancellor and a myopic Westminster opposition, has that idea acquired any traction. Whether they vote Yes or No in September, I suspect the Scots will never feel quite the same about the UK. The Osborne diktat has turned what was a great moral project into an exercise in crude power politics. In truth, these callow politicians are not fit to call themselves Unionist. They haven't a clue what the word means.
The article is about bullying and Bowie. At no point does it try to claim that Bowie is a bully. He quite clearly is not. He is as entitled to his opinion as anyone else.
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Alternatively, the coalition could bring in some new boundaries based on 2010 turnout. That should fix it.MikeSmithson said:
A fair point. We need a new shorthand to describe this.DecrepitJohnL said:
There ought to be a better way of describing this phenomenon than favouring Labour. It gives the impression the system could be "corrected" to even out this bias, but as we all know it is largely due to Labour supporters in safe seats not voting, whereas it looks as if Labour's vote does turn out in close elections.OGH in OP said:We’ve discussed many times before on PB the huge challenge facing the Tories because of the way the electoral system favours Labour. My reckoning is that the blues could be 3-4% ahead in national vote share and still be behind Labour on the number of seats.
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Tax receipts are falling with lower than expected surplus in January.If Osborne gives tax cuts with a 110 billion pound deficit,he will be laughed off the park.taffys said:A chance for Osborne to change the narrative.
The narrative on the economy is already flowing entirely in the coalition's direction. It now remains for Osborne to start sharing the proceeds of austerity with voters.
And that is what worries me. Avery suggests Osborne has chosen to spend rather than save.
The tories will not win without tax cuts and a very reduced deficit.0 -
If OGH wants to make a reasonable size (£100) bet then I will be interested. Odds-and-sods* say that Labour will not win. **
* Not referring to the Harpenden Tory Baron.
** Bet not open to Junior.
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How exactly do you see Cameron's team managing to win significant numbers of MPs in Scotland, Wales and northern and urban England?JackW said:One or two little factoids to throw into OGH's little Sunday morning potboiler :
1. Election still 15 months away.
2. Labour lead of 4/6 points is hardly insurmountable or historically large.
3. Ed Miliband - Nuff said.
4. YouGov not the top rated pollster.
5. It's the economy stupid.
6. IMHO increased and differential turnout will considerably assist the Conservatives.
7. My ARSE shows Con largest party and going away ....
And .... the most reliable PB indicator of all ....
8. Rogerdamus predicts a Labour majority !!
(If your McARSE is wrong, we will be calling you Jackodamus after September.)0 -
What sort of jobs? F/T, P/T, zero-hours contracts? And are they going to locals or to arrivals from east of Venice? I can't believe that any private sector employer can make a profit offering F/T union rate jobs to local people. And neither can you, Taffys...taffys said:If you can provide a convincing reply you may convince readers. Otherwise...
Employment is one way. The numbers show that private sector jobs are being created in very significant numbers in areas like the midlands, the north west and even the north east.
I can;t pretend to know the situation on the ground, but the employment reports do show that this is the case.
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I fear dear fellow that the "Mary Celeste" thread from yesterday, together with your outstanding contribution, has been lost forever in the black hole of OGH's meanderings.Innocent_Abroad said:Good morning to OGH.
I was wondering if we might not have a discussion as to what dear old Sean Thomas was on last night...
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... and good morning to you too, Jack. I fear you are only too right...JackW said:
I fear dear fellow that the "Mary Celeste" thread from yesterday, together with your outstanding contribution, has been lost forever in the black hole of OGH's meanderings.Innocent_Abroad said:Good morning to OGH.
I was wondering if we might not have a discussion as to what dear old Sean Thomas was on last night...
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Mr. Dickson, I must say I'm greatly surprised by the response to Osborne's speech on currency, which did contain a number of reasons behind his conclusion (rather than just 'Yes we can').
How does Scotland imagine it can vote to leave, and then demand to retain the same currency as the United Kingdom? Even if you consider sterling to be desirable, its use (via formal currency union) cannot be considered something solely within the gift of Scotland.0 -
By winning 326 seats under FPTP of the 650 seats that will still be the contested after No decisively wins the Scottish referendum.Stuart_Dickson said:
How exactly do you see Cameron's team managing to win significant numbers of MPs in Scotland, Wales and northern and urban England?JackW said:One or two little factoids to throw into OGH's little Sunday morning potboiler :
1. Election still 15 months away.
2. Labour lead of 4/6 points is hardly insurmountable or historically large.
3. Ed Miliband - Nuff said.
4. YouGov not the top rated pollster.
5. It's the economy stupid.
6. IMHO increased and differential turnout will considerably assist the Conservatives.
7. My ARSE shows Con largest party and going away ....
And .... the most reliable PB indicator of all ....
8. Rogerdamus predicts a Labour majority !!
(If your McARSE is wrong, we will be calling you Jackodamus after September.)
Many have scoffed at my ARSE. All have been spectacularly wrong, as indeed will you be "Stuart Truth II
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And neither can you, Taffys...
With respect, I never claimed that I could. And I think it is a massive and untrue generalisation to say all the jobs created are zero hours/low paid/going to foreigners.
For example, do Jaguar Land Rover create jobs like that? I bet they don't
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.If Osborne gives tax cuts with a 110 billion pound deficit,he will be laughed off the park.
Agreed. Which is why I am so disappointed in the government's fiscal position. I thought that by now we would be far further down the road than we are.0 -
I thought your McARSE was blowing for no. Has the wind changed?JackW said:
By winning 326 seats under FPTP of the 650 seats that will still be the contested after YES decisively wins the Scottish referendum.Stuart_Dickson said:
How exactly do you see Cameron's team managing to win significant numbers of MPs in Scotland, Wales and northern and urban England?JackW said:One or two little factoids to throw into OGH's little Sunday morning potboiler :
1. Election still 15 months away.
2. Labour lead of 4/6 points is hardly insurmountable or historically large.
3. Ed Miliband - Nuff said.
4. YouGov not the top rated pollster.
5. It's the economy stupid.
6. IMHO increased and differential turnout will considerably assist the Conservatives.
7. My ARSE shows Con largest party and going away ....
And .... the most reliable PB indicator of all ....
8. Rogerdamus predicts a Labour majority !!
(If your McARSE is wrong, we will be calling you Jackodamus after September.)
Many have scoffed at my ARSE. All have been spectacularly wrong, as indeed will you be "Stuart Truth II0 -
The Edit button is your friend.foxinsoxuk said:I thought your McARSE was blowing for no. Has the wind changed?
JackW said:
By winning 326 seats under FPTP of the 650 seats that will still be the contested after YES decisively wins the Scottish referendum.Stuart_Dickson said:
How exactly do you see Cameron's team managing to win significant numbers of MPs in Scotland, Wales and northern and urban England?JackW said:One or two little factoids to throw into OGH's little Sunday morning potboiler :
1. Election still 15 months away.
2. Labour lead of 4/6 points is hardly insurmountable or historically large.
3. Ed Miliband - Nuff said.
4. YouGov not the top rated pollster.
5. It's the economy stupid.
6. IMHO increased and differential turnout will considerably assist the Conservatives.
7. My ARSE shows Con largest party and going away ....
And .... the most reliable PB indicator of all ....
8. Rogerdamus predicts a Labour majority !!
(If your McARSE is wrong, we will be calling you Jackodamus after September.)
Many have scoffed at my ARSE. All have been spectacularly wrong, as indeed will you be "Stuart Truth II
Thank goodness !!
I'll keep both posts .... Never let it be said ....
Titters ....
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Now that's what I call a Freudian slip!JackW said:
By winning 326 seats under FPTP of the 650 seats that will still be the contested after YES decisively wins the Scottish referendum.Stuart_Dickson said:
How exactly do you see Cameron's team managing to win significant numbers of MPs in Scotland, Wales and northern and urban England?JackW said:One or two little factoids to throw into OGH's little Sunday morning potboiler :
1. Election still 15 months away.
2. Labour lead of 4/6 points is hardly insurmountable or historically large.
3. Ed Miliband - Nuff said.
4. YouGov not the top rated pollster.
5. It's the economy stupid.
6. IMHO increased and differential turnout will considerably assist the Conservatives.
7. My ARSE shows Con largest party and going away ....
And .... the most reliable PB indicator of all ....
8. Rogerdamus predicts a Labour majority !!
(If your McARSE is wrong, we will be calling you Jackodamus after September.)
Many have scoffed at my ARSE. All have been spectacularly wrong, as indeed will you be "Stuart Truth II
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But they will create them in whichever country with a sufficiently educated workforce has the lowest house prices. That's what globalisation is all about.taffys said:And neither can you, Taffys...
With respect, I never claimed that I could. And I think it is a massive and untrue generalisation to say all the jobs created are zero hours/low paid/going to foreigners.
For example, do Jaguar Land Rover create jobs like that? I bet they don't
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We need to avoid the trap some fall into of believing that votes are determined by whether people work in the public or private sectors. Low-paid workers in either sector are more likely to vote Labour.taffys said:If you can provide a convincing reply you may convince readers. Otherwise...
Employment is one way. The numbers show that private sector jobs are being created in very significant numbers in areas like the midlands, the north west and even the north east.
I can;t pretend to know the situation on the ground, but the employment reports do show that this is the case.
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Dear Dear, when in poverty you eat anything you can get and it is usually not caviare or turbot. Poverty equals poor diet and obesity, just look at America.MonikerDiCanio said:
Obesity rising in Salmond's famine ridden Scotland;Stuart_Dickson said:
Another "union dividend" (sic).malcolmg said:We are really seeing the benefits of the union nowadays:
SCOTLAND's biggest food bank has run out of food as the number of poverty-stricken Scots turning to food banks for help reaches its hightest level ever.
http://www.heraldscotland.com/news/home-news/the-food-bank-with-no-food.23509422
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-251020350 -
I dare say a suitable narrative will be found if it looks like a path to victory in 2015.SMukesh said:
Tax receipts are falling with lower than expected surplus in January.If Osborne gives tax cuts with a 110 billion pound deficit,he will be laughed off the park.taffys said:A chance for Osborne to change the narrative.
The narrative on the economy is already flowing entirely in the coalition's direction. It now remains for Osborne to start sharing the proceeds of austerity with voters.
And that is what worries me. Avery suggests Osborne has chosen to spend rather than save.
The tories will not win without tax cuts and a very reduced deficit.0 -
Scotland has "Dennis" and most of those automotive sites are Engerlundtshire based. Scotland also lacks any known high-tech automotive industry. Given the 'dream' of Scotland's educational excellence can you explain why...?Innocent_Abroad said:But they will create them in whichever country with a sufficiently educated workforce has the lowest house prices. That's what globalisation is all about.
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Cutting government spending went out of the window when growth started to falter.A lot of hype on deficit reduction for little result.Which makes it interesting which way Osborne is going to spin this years` budget.taffys said:.If Osborne gives tax cuts with a 110 billion pound deficit,he will be laughed off the park.
Agreed. Which is why I am so disappointed in the government's fiscal position. I thought that by now we would be far further down the road than we are.0 -
Mr. G, not entirely I sure I agree on poverty/obesity. Not many fat people in Sudan.
I also think it's quite wrong to try and blame the UK for obesity in Scotland. If you become independent you won't all become svelte and gorgeous.
Rising obesity is a common problem amongst Western nations. Consumerism, lack of self-control, lack of willpower to exercise and so forth are all relevant factors.0 -
OT After George Osborne's intervention in IndyRef, it must be even clearer to the man that, fairly or unfairly (and the same is true of Ed Balls), voters react badly to him. Will Osborne take a low profile in 2015, as at the last election, or will there be a reshuffle later this year? Should we be betting on a Conservative "next Chancellor"?0
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MD, once again , it is a negotiating position. George has shown his hand early and backed himself into a corner. Mr Salmond has all his options open. So George folds and looks a fool or else he is hamstrung in negotiating from his supposed fixed position. Mr Salmond can negotiate and either give in on it or say George is unreasonable and so no fair deal can be done. Best option I think is for George to hold his position and we can then start afresh with no baggage.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Dickson, I must say I'm greatly surprised by the response to Osborne's speech on currency, which did contain a number of reasons behind his conclusion (rather than just 'Yes we can').
How does Scotland imagine it can vote to leave, and then demand to retain the same currency as the United Kingdom? Even if you consider sterling to be desirable, its use (via formal currency union) cannot be considered something solely within the gift of Scotland.0 -
Actually it's called a Mrs JackW slip .... as I was typing she asked if I taking her out for lunch ? .... and of course do you think there was any other possible response !!Stuart_Dickson said:
Now that's what I call a Freudian slip!JackW said:
By winning 326 seats under FPTP of the 650 seats that will still be the contested after YES decisively wins the Scottish referendum.Stuart_Dickson said:
How exactly do you see Cameron's team managing to win significant numbers of MPs in Scotland, Wales and northern and urban England?JackW said:One or two little factoids to throw into OGH's little Sunday morning potboiler :
1. Election still 15 months away.
2. Labour lead of 4/6 points is hardly insurmountable or historically large.
3. Ed Miliband - Nuff said.
4. YouGov not the top rated pollster.
5. It's the economy stupid.
6. IMHO increased and differential turnout will considerably assist the Conservatives.
7. My ARSE shows Con largest party and going away ....
And .... the most reliable PB indicator of all ....
8. Rogerdamus predicts a Labour majority !!
(If your McARSE is wrong, we will be calling you Jackodamus after September.)
Many have scoffed at my ARSE. All have been spectacularly wrong, as indeed will you be "Stuart Truth II
It might have been worse .... I might have typed to you YES darling !!
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:logic-failure:DecrepitJohnL said:We need to avoid the trap some fall into of believing that votes are determined by whether people work in the public or private sectors. Low-paid workers in either sector are more likely to vote Labour.
Using that metric all millionaires are Tories and they pay their taxes. Unless they work for the sin-houses of Al-Beeb, Westminster, 'Olyrood, &c. ....
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LOLStuart_Dickson said:
Now that's what I call a Freudian slip!JackW said:
By winning 326 seats under FPTP of the 650 seats that will still be the contested after YES decisively wins the Scottish referendum.Stuart_Dickson said:
How exactly do you see Cameron's team managing to win significant numbers of MPs in Scotland, Wales and northern and urban England?JackW said:One or two little factoids to throw into OGH's little Sunday morning potboiler :
1. Election still 15 months away.
2. Labour lead of 4/6 points is hardly insurmountable or historically large.
3. Ed Miliband - Nuff said.
4. YouGov not the top rated pollster.
5. It's the economy stupid.
6. IMHO increased and differential turnout will considerably assist the Conservatives.
7. My ARSE shows Con largest party and going away ....
And .... the most reliable PB indicator of all ....
8. Rogerdamus predicts a Labour majority !!
(If your McARSE is wrong, we will be calling you Jackodamus after September.)
Many have scoffed at my ARSE. All have been spectacularly wrong, as indeed will you be "Stuart Truth II0 -
Mr. L, there's no way in hell Osborne will be reshuffled. The Conservatives will make the economy (or possibly Scotland, if Yes wins) the keystone of their approach to the election. Replacing your Chancellor for so many years would be seen as hoisting the white flag. For the same reason, Balls is bulletproof in terms of reshuffles.0
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Try reading my posts to the end. my dear. I know they annoy you (and lots of other Peebies) but that's how I mean them to be read, all the same. And "highly" and "sufficiently" are two different words...FluffyThoughts said:
Scotland has "Dennis" and most of those automotive sites are Engerlundtshire based. Scotland also lacks any known high-tech automotive industry. Given the 'dream' of Scotland's educational excellence can you explain why...?Innocent_Abroad said:But they will create them in whichever country with a sufficiently educated workforce has the lowest house prices. That's what globalisation is all about.
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Is the variability in the L % too small statistically? Is there some smoothing as a methodological side effect?0
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YouGov has some SIndy polling on currency union:
Scotland/England&Wales
Currency Union
Support: 70/25
Oppose: 18/58
Effect of Currency Union on SIndy economy:
Good: 54/41
Bad: 14/18
Effect of Currency Union on rUK economy:
Good: 55/18
Bad: 20/43
Who's bluffing now?
And on the EU, Scotland
Remains in: 44/23
Applies to join: 36/61
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Mr. G, what if you're wrong?
I think you are, regarding the "no currency union" position being a negotiating stance. The electoral timetable is critical here. The negotiations would be 2014-2016. The General Election is in 2015. Infuriating 60% of the electorate (and looking like a liar to 100% of the electorate) immediately prior to and during an election campaign is a great way to commit electoral suicide.
So, it won't happen. That's my view, anyway.
Also, Salmond can't claim Osborne et al. are unreasonable, because he's made the position clear. It's not like you're heading for the vote uncertain on this topic.
The only certainty, really, is that if Yes wins we're going to have a rather interesting couple of years.0 -
Foodbanks are just proof that if you offer something for nothing, people will come and take it.0
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@computor2
If you are worried about Tramadol levels (although why you are taking opiates without a hospital-based specialist prescribing them) then perhaps you should vote Tory in 2015?
After all, Labour was planning to cut £20bn from the NHS budget in 2010.
@John_Lilburne
I agree, Sveaborg is lovely. I once dated a Swedish girl whose family name (roughly) translated as 'Guardians of the Portals of the East' - she took me there as it was one of their historical bases.0 -
MD partly agree but I am afraid you see lots of apparently fat people in places like Sudan, either the rich for real or those with malnutrition who oddly get distended and appear obese, at least for a spell.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. G, not entirely I sure I agree on poverty/obesity. Not many fat people in Sudan.
I also think it's quite wrong to try and blame the UK for obesity in Scotland. If you become independent you won't all become svelte and gorgeous.
Rising obesity is a common problem amongst Western nations. Consumerism, lack of self-control, lack of willpower to exercise and so forth are all relevant factors.
Also I alluded to the political realities of the UK which is so mismanaged as to mean lots of people north and south of the border assist people to become obese.0 -
Eh?FluffyThoughts said:
:logic-failure:DecrepitJohnL said:We need to avoid the trap some fall into of believing that votes are determined by whether people work in the public or private sectors. Low-paid workers in either sector are more likely to vote Labour.
Using that metric all millionaires are Tories and they pay their taxes. Unless they work for the sin-houses of Al-Beeb, Westminster, 'Olyrood, &c. ....
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Read the polls........malcolmg said:
MD, once again , it is a negotiating position. George has shown his hand early and backed himself into a corner. Mr Salmond has all his options open. So George folds and looks a fool or else he is hamstrung in negotiating from his supposed fixed position. Mr Salmond can negotiate and either give in on it or say George is unreasonable and so no fair deal can be done. Best option I think is for George to hold his position and we can then start afresh with no baggage.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Dickson, I must say I'm greatly surprised by the response to Osborne's speech on currency, which did contain a number of reasons behind his conclusion (rather than just 'Yes we can').
How does Scotland imagine it can vote to leave, and then demand to retain the same currency as the United Kingdom? Even if you consider sterling to be desirable, its use (via formal currency union) cannot be considered something solely within the gift of Scotland.0 -
Correct MD:Morris_Dancer said:Mr. L, there's no way in hell Osborne will be reshuffled.
Even the Scots-born Anti-Christ could not rid Engerlundt of the curse that was "The Gormless One". Only the English electorate offered salvation (and ended up with the incompetent Cloggie DPM in his stead)....
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That is for sureMorris_Dancer said:Mr. G, what if you're wrong?
I think you are, regarding the "no currency union" position being a negotiating stance. The electoral timetable is critical here. The negotiations would be 2014-2016. The General Election is in 2015. Infuriating 60% of the electorate (and looking like a liar to 100% of the electorate) immediately prior to and during an election campaign is a great way to commit electoral suicide.
So, it won't happen. That's my view, anyway.
Also, Salmond can't claim Osborne et al. are unreasonable, because he's made the position clear. It's not like you're heading for the vote uncertain on this topic.
The only certainty, really, is that if Yes wins we're going to have a rather interesting couple of years.0 -
I prefer realityCarlottaVance said:
Read the polls........malcolmg said:
MD, once again , it is a negotiating position. George has shown his hand early and backed himself into a corner. Mr Salmond has all his options open. So George folds and looks a fool or else he is hamstrung in negotiating from his supposed fixed position. Mr Salmond can negotiate and either give in on it or say George is unreasonable and so no fair deal can be done. Best option I think is for George to hold his position and we can then start afresh with no baggage.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Dickson, I must say I'm greatly surprised by the response to Osborne's speech on currency, which did contain a number of reasons behind his conclusion (rather than just 'Yes we can').
How does Scotland imagine it can vote to leave, and then demand to retain the same currency as the United Kingdom? Even if you consider sterling to be desirable, its use (via formal currency union) cannot be considered something solely within the gift of Scotland.0 -
Lol - they don't come more svelte and gorgeous that wee eck!!Morris_Dancer said:Mr. G, not entirely I sure I agree on poverty/obesity. Not many fat people in Sudan.
I also think it's quite wrong to try and blame the UK for obesity in Scotland. If you become independent you won't all become svelte and gorgeous.
Rising obesity is a common problem amongst Western nations. Consumerism, lack of self-control, lack of willpower to exercise and so forth are all relevant factors.
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The alternative reality that isn't reflected in the opinion polls?malcolmg said:
I prefer realityCarlottaVance said:
Read the polls........malcolmg said:
MD, once again , it is a negotiating position. George has shown his hand early and backed himself into a corner. Mr Salmond has all his options open. So George folds and looks a fool or else he is hamstrung in negotiating from his supposed fixed position. Mr Salmond can negotiate and either give in on it or say George is unreasonable and so no fair deal can be done. Best option I think is for George to hold his position and we can then start afresh with no baggage.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Dickson, I must say I'm greatly surprised by the response to Osborne's speech on currency, which did contain a number of reasons behind his conclusion (rather than just 'Yes we can').
How does Scotland imagine it can vote to leave, and then demand to retain the same currency as the United Kingdom? Even if you consider sterling to be desirable, its use (via formal currency union) cannot be considered something solely within the gift of Scotland.
How will an rUK CoE sell a currency union to an electorate who oppose it 2:1 and think it will damage the rUK economy?
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Miss Vance, and an electorate which has been told by all its major parties that they oppose it.0
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Salmond claims to have been on a successful diet but he remains as fat as ever. Whatever the opposite of anorexia nervosa is, Salmond's got it.felix said:
Lol - they don't come more svelte and gorgeous that wee eck!!Morris_Dancer said:Mr. G, not entirely I sure I agree on poverty/obesity. Not many fat people in Sudan.
I also think it's quite wrong to try and blame the UK for obesity in Scotland. If you become independent you won't all become svelte and gorgeous.
Rising obesity is a common problem amongst Western nations. Consumerism, lack of self-control, lack of willpower to exercise and so forth are all relevant factors.
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"Interesting" is one way of putting it.Morris_Dancer said:... The only certainty, really, is that if Yes wins we're going to have a rather interesting couple of years.
For Scots it will be a breath of fresh air to be in charge of our own destiny again, but England is going to wake up with one hell of a hangover after drowning its sorrows over the penultimate loss of its long imperial decline. Only Wales to go.
The biggest uncertainty about the dissolution of the United Kingdom is not what Scotland is going to be like, but what is England going to do?0 -
The majority of fat people are fat because they eat too much.. but lets blame someone else for their gluttony0
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http://www.heraldscotland.com/comment/columnists/after-bullying-and-bowie-there-will-be-nothing-united-about-this-kingdom-followin.23509172Stuart_Dickson said:'After bullying and Bowie there will be nothing united about this Kingdom following the referendum ...
In September, at a conference in Orkney, Better Together's Ian Davidson MP declared that the No campaign had already won and all that was left was "to bayonet the wounded".
... One of the untold stories of the referendum has been the tension within the Labour movement in Scotland as the UK Labour establishment has tried to keep a lid on it. It burst into the open last week when the STUC leader, Grahame Smith, openly criticised the Better Together campaign.
... Many Scots voters, Yes and No, felt belittled by George Osborne's punitive intervention.
... The UK political establishment has clearly forgotten that the Union of 1707 was supposed to have been a partnership not an annexation.
... Perhaps Scots were deluding themselves that this was a partnership of equals, but that is what most genuinely believed. Very few people in Scotland in the 19th or 20th centuries felt that Scotland was a colony of England, or was oppressed by England or that Scotland had been extinguished. Only now, thanks to a clodhopping Chancellor and a myopic Westminster opposition, has that idea acquired any traction. Whether they vote Yes or No in September, I suspect the Scots will never feel quite the same about the UK. The Osborne diktat has turned what was a great moral project into an exercise in crude power politics. In truth, these callow politicians are not fit to call themselves Unionist. They haven't a clue what the word means.
I don't think I have a clue what Unionist means, either. This time three years ago I though the jokes about sport were an amusing proxy for the real debate, but no one has come up with any issue more substantive than whether to cheer for Andy Murray. The Acts of Union were a fix up by corrupt commissioners, and if they'd had a referendum in Scotland no (to the union) would have won 75% of the vote. The entity created by the Acts is uniquely weird; no attempt to merge the legal systems, which are about as far apart as legal systems get, and no institution of a new parliament at, say, Carlisle on neutral ground (like DC). We have fruitfully cooperated in imperialism, engineering and world wars, but that was then and this is now. In fact thinking about it what we have now is a currency union with bells on. The all-important panda ratio tells us how far apart the countries are (and that point would apply equally to whichever party supplied the PM and led the coalition in England, but had one MP in Scotland). I think no will win (can't say I hope it will) and we will muddle along as before, with the atmosphere poisoned by the antics of both sides.
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On a serious note, there is (or was planned to be when I was at university) a condition called binge eating disorder.
On a more interesting note, you could make a case for a huge number of men being bulimic, because purging (whilst commonly viewed as being induced vomiting) actually includes 'excessive' exercise.
Not always easy to correctly diagnose such things. I was immensely skinny at school, but never had any eating disorder.
And, to finish on a serious note, good for Salmond to lose some weight. I still think he's an absolute arse, of course, but a slightly lighter one.0 -
What is it folk in glass houses shouldn't do?MonikerDiCanio said:
Salmond claims to have been on a successful diet but he remains as fat as ever. Whatever the opposite of anorexia nervosa is, Salmond's got it.felix said:
Lol - they don't come more svelte and gorgeous that wee eck!!Morris_Dancer said:Mr. G, not entirely I sure I agree on poverty/obesity. Not many fat people in Sudan.
I also think it's quite wrong to try and blame the UK for obesity in Scotland. If you become independent you won't all become svelte and gorgeous.
Rising obesity is a common problem amongst Western nations. Consumerism, lack of self-control, lack of willpower to exercise and so forth are all relevant factors.
Here's the leader of the (ahem) 'largest' Unionist party in Scotland:
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/wintour-and-watt/2011/dec/29/alexsalmond-scotland
... and you really don't want to look too closely at her fellow shadow cabinet members either.0 -
Carry on much as before I expect. The greater changes will be in Scotland. New currency/Euro and EU application and all.Stuart_Dickson said:
what is England going to do?Morris_Dancer said:... The only certainty, really, is that if Yes wins we're going to have a rather interesting couple of years.
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Read in the currant bun on Thursday that Osborne has gone on the same diet that Salmond uses.. The 5:2 diet, eat what you like for five days, and NOTHING AT ALL for the other twoMonikerDiCanio said:
Salmond claims to have been on a successful diet but he remains as fat as ever. Whatever the opposite of anorexia nervosa is, Salmond's got it.felix said:
Lol - they don't come more svelte and gorgeous that wee eck!!Morris_Dancer said:Mr. G, not entirely I sure I agree on poverty/obesity. Not many fat people in Sudan.
I also think it's quite wrong to try and blame the UK for obesity in Scotland. If you become independent you won't all become svelte and gorgeous.
Rising obesity is a common problem amongst Western nations. Consumerism, lack of self-control, lack of willpower to exercise and so forth are all relevant factors.0 -
Mr. Dickson, imperial decline?
Shade unfair, considering England et al. [according to what I've read here] rescued Scotland from immense debt due to a colonial misadventure. We didn't conquer and oppress you, we paid your bills.
I agree, however, that "What next?" is a question as much for England, Wales and Northern Ireland as for Scotland. Wales won't want to go its own way, I feel. It has 3% of the population and 2% of the economy. Welsh independence would amount to a crash in living standards.
Northern Ireland still isn't fully peaceful, and even if the UK excluding Scotland remains in one peace, a Scottish Yes could throw things up in the air.
Mr. Dodd, that's pretty much true. A serious problem is for children whose parents overfeed them. During childhood new fat cells (adipocytes) can be created, if too much is consumed. This effectively raises the permanent baseline of 'fatness' for the child when they become an adult, making it far harder to become svelte and gorgeous even with a good diet and exercise when they're grown up.0 -
Mr. Isam, I read about that diet. I think Horizon had a programme about similar things that involve at least some periods of fasting. It was fairly interesting, but I think I'll stick to my usual diet of not eating very much. It seems to work fairly well.0
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Indeed?CarlottaVance said:
Carry on much as before I expect.Stuart_Dickson said:
what is England going to do?Morris_Dancer said:... The only certainty, really, is that if Yes wins we're going to have a rather interesting couple of years.
- "England's Tories are panicking again as the prospect of losing a quarter of their kingdom and with it their seat on the UN Security Council looms."
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/feb/16/scotland-independence-sterling-george-osborne
And ever heard of Coulport Carlotta? Where exactly in England are you planning on digging silos for the 200 nuclear warheads? I expect that the local residents' associations would like some advance warning.
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Don't forget the fairly effective baby-eater campaign in 2010 that scared dome key demographics into continuing to support Labour. Tory rule really has been that badMikeSmithson said:
If Cameron was unable to win these LAB voters in 2010 it is hard to see him getting many converts next year.OblitusSumMe said:If Cameron can win the votes of some Labour 2010 voters - the better the nurse for fear of worse demographic, perhaps - then he can still win. I don't expect him to, but I think it's within the window of opportunity.
The other problem is going to be taking the LD seats that the seat projectors suggest CON should get on UNS. The evidence is that this wil be very challenging where a sitting MP is standing again.0 -
On current trends, Cameron will lose in 2015, but a major unexpected upset could change this. Four possibilities, in no particular order:
a/ a yes vote in the referendum. Losing Scotland would be a blow to Cameron, but Labour would be looking at the loss of a few dozen seats, and might also catch some of the blame for losing the referendum.
b/ a major scandal hitting Labour, but leaving the Conservatives untouched. There's currently no reason to expect this, but nor can it be completely ruled out. (Note, I'm not a lawyer, but I understand discussing possible scandals could fall foul of the libel laws.)
c/ a successful terrorist attack on the cabinet. If half of them are dead, and the other half confined to wheelchairs, there will be a sympathy factor, and they may win points for 'defying the terrorists', 'leadership in a time of crisis', etc.
d/ a major international crisis - Russia and the EU getting involved in an Ukrainian civil war, China getting into a fight with Japan, revolution in Saudi Arabia, etc. This would make foreign policy a more significant issue, which could benefit the conservatives. They wouldn't need to have an outright advantage in foreign policy, just shoving things like the cost of living down the political agenda would help them.
I won't claim any of these are likely, but the aggregate probability of all these scenarios, and the others that could torpedo Labour, does set a floor on the chance of Cameron winning.
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Mr. Dickson, suppose we did lose our UN Security Council Seat. Do you actually think that would be a good thing for the world?
You appear to be gloating about making life hard for your 'best pals in the world'. Not the best way to encourage strong bilateral trade and foster a warm and cordial approach to independence negotiations.0 -
I missed Avery's conclusion last night, but his data suggested that the spending was being offset in the small print. I'm wondering if he is building up a massive war chest so he can deliver a big tax cut while also bringing the deficit down?taffys said:A chance for Osborne to change the narrative.
The narrative on the economy is already flowing entirely in the coalition's direction. It now remains for Osborne to start sharing the proceeds of austerity with voters.
And that is what worries me. Avery suggests Osborne has chosen to spend rather than save.
The tories will not win without tax cuts and a very reduced deficit.0 -
"I agree with Kevin McKenna ("Memo to George: England's bullying of Scots will drive us into the Yes camp", Comment) that George Osborne's statement rejecting a currency union is likely to alienate Scots further. But this has more to do with his manner and choice of language than with the substance of what he said."
http://www.theguardian.com/theobserver/2014/feb/23/the-big-issue-scottish-independence0 -
I thought the at-sea deterrent would be maintained, just based at a different dockyards.Stuart_Dickson said:
And ever heard of Coulport Carlotta? Where exactly in England are you planning on digging silos for the 200 nuclear warheads? I expect that the local residents' associations would like some advance warning.
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Mr Dickson, the warheads would not be kept in silo's0
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Sweden was one of the main protagonists in 'The Thirty-Years War". Search far enough and you will also find her innovative approach to West-African slavery.
Nothing must be as humiliating as losing a European empire to the French (and their Scots/Oirish toe-rags). The Swedes' lost to everyone....0 -
Hooey. The Soviet Union suffered a much greater loss on the collapse of the iron curtain - yet Russia is still on the security council. And of course, if the SNP want to add NATO to the list of organisations Scotland will struggle to join, then go ahead. If SIndy happens the deterrent will be relocated, but it will take time, as the SNP have implicitly acknowledged.Stuart_Dickson said:
Indeed?CarlottaVance said:
Carry on much as before I expect.Stuart_Dickson said:
what is England going to do?Morris_Dancer said:... The only certainty, really, is that if Yes wins we're going to have a rather interesting couple of years.
- "England's Tories are panicking again as the prospect of losing a quarter of their kingdom and with it their seat on the UN Security Council looms."
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/feb/16/scotland-independence-sterling-george-osborne
And ever heard of Coulport Carlotta? Where exactly in England are you planning on digging silos for the 200 nuclear warheads? I expect that the local residents' associations would like some advance warning.
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A tax cut doesn't automatically lead to lower revenues. See the 45% tax rate, for instance. If there are any tax cuts, I am sure (hope) they will be those which further stimulate the economy.Charles said:
I missed Avery's conclusion last night, but his data suggested that the spending was being offset in the small print. I'm wondering if he is building up a massive war chest so he can deliver a big tax cut while also bringing the deficit down?
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Polling Crossover Goalpost Syndrome - We endlessly debate for months and months of reasons why and how there will be a polling crossover and how the system is slanted towards Labour, however, it just doesn't happen.....we just keep moving the goalposts further into the future every few months.MikeSmithson said:
A fair point. We need a new shorthand to describe this.DecrepitJohnL said:
There ought to be a better way of describing this phenomenon than favouring Labour. It gives the impression the system could be "corrected" to even out this bias, but as we all know it is largely due to Labour supporters in safe seats not voting, whereas it looks as if Labour's vote does turn out in close elections.OGH in OP said:We’ve discussed many times before on PB the huge challenge facing the Tories because of the way the electoral system favours Labour. My reckoning is that the blues could be 3-4% ahead in national vote share and still be behind Labour on the number of seats.
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Sounds like a fad, like most diets.isam said:
Read in the currant bun on Thursday that Osborne has gone on the same diet that Salmond uses.. The 5:2 diet, eat what you like for five days, and NOTHING AT ALL for the other twoMonikerDiCanio said:
Salmond claims to have been on a successful diet but he remains as fat as ever. Whatever the opposite of anorexia nervosa is, Salmond's got it.felix said:
Lol - they don't come more svelte and gorgeous that wee eck!!Morris_Dancer said:Mr. G, not entirely I sure I agree on poverty/obesity. Not many fat people in Sudan.
I also think it's quite wrong to try and blame the UK for obesity in Scotland. If you become independent you won't all become svelte and gorgeous.
Rising obesity is a common problem amongst Western nations. Consumerism, lack of self-control, lack of willpower to exercise and so forth are all relevant factors.
They key to trimming a little excess weight is:
a) Eat a healthy amount; a little of everything, regularly.
b) Do a healthy amount of exercise.
The only thing that fasting for periods, or cutting out certain foodtypes (except in the case of allergies), will achieve is a slimming of the bank balance.
ISTR that SeanT is our dieting expert, but I can't quite recall what he did.0 -
Recent Horizon programme about the effects of sugar vs fat found that in rats, and in humans too, it is the combo of both that is like heroin... Ie double cream and sugar eaten separately are not appealing, but the two combined are... So high fat diets and high sugar diets don't really lead to big weight gain but a diet of foods that combine both is the road to obesityMorris_Dancer said:Mr. Isam, I read about that diet. I think Horizon had a programme about similar things that involve at least some periods of fasting. It was fairly interesting, but I think I'll stick to my usual diet of not eating very much. It seems to work fairly well.
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You missed a bit:Stuart_Dickson said:"I agree with Kevin McKenna ("Memo to George: England's bullying of Scots will drive us into the Yes camp", Comment) that George Osborne's statement rejecting a currency union is likely to alienate Scots further. But this has more to do with his manner and choice of language than with the substance of what he said."
http://www.theguardian.com/theobserver/2014/feb/23/the-big-issue-scottish-independence
The question that should be asked with incredulity is – do Kevin McKenna or Alex Salmond really believe that the rest of the UK will agree effectively to underwrite the sovereign debt of a foreign country, in order to avoid these transaction costs on 10% of its trade?
Answer came there none......
In any case not every business in rUK will want to invoice in a minor volatile currency and may well invoice in Sterling - so the costs will be in Scotland, not rUK.
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I hardly see how less than a tenth of the population leaving the UK will somehow cause the UK to be stripped of her UNSC seat. What would be the legal basis for doing that? The rUK wouldn't even have to be recognised as a successor state, because it would be the exact same state continuing, just with less territory. And even when there was the need to recognise a successor state, this was done with both Russia and the People's Republic, when they replaced the USSR and the RoC.0
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Indeed; sans Lancaster House (2010) warhead maintenance is out-sourced to France. [Development is Aldermaston's role]. Most warheads are either on-top or prepared.richardDodd said:Mr Dickson, the warheads would not be kept in silo's
Why any need for £billions at HMNB Clyde when the French are an appreciative host (and a suitable site for a "broken-arrow") is beyond me....
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Splittism!
'Ukip rebels stage alternative rally as crisis-hit party launches Scottish Euro candidate'
http://tinyurl.com/naowp9h
Frankly I'm amazed that UKIP are still getting 2-3% in Scottish polls. Thinking UKIPers must despair, knowing that they have a small but solid constituency they could build on if it weren't for the eejits.0 -
Th'UD:Theuniondivvie said:Splittism!
'Ukip rebels stage alternative rally as crisis-hit party launches Scottish Euro candidate'
http://tinyurl.com/naowp9h
Frankly I'm amazed that UKIP are still getting 2-3% in Scottish polls. Thinking UKIPers must despair, knowing that they have a small but solid constituency they could build on if it weren't for the eejits.
Yet some fat ugly bloke demanded - and, I believe, went to court - using that same UK-wide percentage to justify his place at the "Prime-Ministerial Debates", 2010. Was it a call for a Barnett-Formula for ' a 50"-plasma TV's for every Scottish voter' subsidy...?
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Evidently still only the cat at home at Fluffy Towers..FluffyThoughts said:
Th'UD:Theuniondivvie said:Splittism!
'Ukip rebels stage alternative rally as crisis-hit party launches Scottish Euro candidate'
http://tinyurl.com/naowp9h
Frankly I'm amazed that UKIP are still getting 2-3% in Scottish polls. Thinking UKIPers must despair, knowing that they have a small but solid constituency they could build on if it weren't for the eejits.
Yet some fat ugly bloke demanded - and, I believe, went to court - using that same UK-wide percentage to justify his place at the "Prime-Ministerial Debates", 2010. Was it a call for a Barnett-Formula for ' a 50"-plasma TV's for every Scottish voter' subsidy...?
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Another four reasons added to the growing.Robert_Of_Sheffield said:On current trends, Cameron will lose in 2015, but a major unexpected upset could change this. Four possibilities, in no particular order:
a/ a yes vote in the referendum. Losing Scotland would be a blow to Cameron, but Labour would be looking at the loss of a few dozen seats, and might also catch some of the blame for losing the referendum.
b/ a major scandal hitting Labour, but leaving the Conservatives untouched. There's currently no reason to expect this, but nor can it be completely ruled out. (Note, I'm not a lawyer, but I understand discussing possible scandals could fall foul of the libel laws.)
c/ a successful terrorist attack on the cabinet. If half of them are dead, and the other half confined to wheelchairs, there will be a sympathy factor, and they may win points for 'defying the terrorists', 'leadership in a time of crisis', etc.
d/ a major international crisis - Russia and the EU getting involved in an Ukrainian civil war, China getting into a fight with Japan, revolution in Saudi Arabia, etc. This would make foreign policy a more significant issue, which could benefit the conservatives. They wouldn't need to have an outright advantage in foreign policy, just shoving things like the cost of living down the political agenda would help them.
I won't claim any of these are likely, but the aggregate probability of all these scenarios, and the others that could torpedo Labour, does set a floor on the chance of Cameron winning.
I did list twenty a few months ago, under the title "PB Hodges favourite straws to clutch at"....however, me and the squirrel are still carrying the burden.0 -
I don't think anything says more about the current state of Scots chippiness than the fact that a refusal of a country they have just left to underwrite a foreign country's financial sector is "bullying". It seems like, should independence happen, rather than be a confident new state in the world, they will instead repeat Ireland's mentality for its early decades. Perhaps they could also refuse to participate in upholding the international order and send condolences on the death of the UK's enemies?0
