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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Just over 14 months to go to GE2015 and LAB’s position rema
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Just over 14 months to go to GE2015 and LAB’s position remains solid in the PB YouGov weekly average
Since before Christmas I’ve been maintaining an average of the four main party shares from the 5 YouGov polls that appear every week. This enables us to follow trends much better than looking at individual polls from the firm which like all surveys can sometimes be affected by sampling issues.
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I was wondering if we might not have a discussion as to what dear old Sean Thomas was on last night...
It is not just the requirement for a 7 point lead that hinders the Tories, it is the fact that they have excluded themselves from vast geographical spreads of the UK: Scotland, Northern Ireland, most of Wales, and most or urban and northern England.
That makes the medium-sized towns of central and southern England the entrenched frontline of the next UK GE. But is it quite simply too narrow a front for the Tories to ever achieve another Westminster majority pre-independence?
If you like, you could try to answer my question. For starters, how exactly do you see Cameron's team managing to win significant numbers of MPs in Scotland, Wales and northern and urban England? If you can provide a convincing reply you may convince readers. Otherwise...
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-25102035
I've thought that a combination of tax cuts, concessions from Europe, good growth, improving finances and better weather could easily swing the polls very significantly at any moment.
Avery's analysis of the recent budget figures suggest that tax cuts are not on the agenda and the commitment to fiscal discipline is more spin than fact.
And the tories will never win like that. And they will not deserve to.
The other big unknown is the Nick-Nigel debate.Will it generate enough interest with the big two not participating?
It could lead to Lib Dems pulling some voters back from Labour and also UKIP consolidating Con voters/lose voters back to Con.
Employment is one way. The numbers show that private sector jobs are being created in very significant numbers in areas like the midlands, the north west and even the north east.
I can;t pretend to know the situation on the ground, but the employment reports do show that this is the case.
Oh dear Scotland being bullied by Osborne AND David Bowie - diddums!
1. Election still 15 months away.
2. Labour lead of 4/6 points is hardly insurmountable or historically large.
3. Ed Miliband - Nuff said.
4. YouGov not the top rated pollster.
5. It's the economy stupid.
6. IMHO increased and differential turnout will considerably assist the Conservatives.
7. My ARSE shows Con largest party and going away ....
And .... the most reliable PB indicator of all ....
8. Rogerdamus predicts a Labour majority !!
The other problem is going to be taking the LD seats that the seat projectors suggest CON should get on UNS. The evidence is that this wil be very challenging where a sitting MP is standing again.
The narrative on the economy is already flowing entirely in the coalition's direction. It now remains for Osborne to start sharing the proceeds of austerity with voters.
And that is what worries me. Avery suggests Osborne has chosen to spend rather than save.
The tories will not win without tax cuts and a very reduced deficit.
The article is about bullying and Bowie. At no point does it try to claim that Bowie is a bully. He quite clearly is not. He is as entitled to his opinion as anyone else.
* Not referring to the Harpenden Tory Baron.
** Bet not open to Junior.
(If your McARSE is wrong, we will be calling you Jackodamus after September.)
How does Scotland imagine it can vote to leave, and then demand to retain the same currency as the United Kingdom? Even if you consider sterling to be desirable, its use (via formal currency union) cannot be considered something solely within the gift of Scotland.
Many have scoffed at my ARSE. All have been spectacularly wrong, as indeed will you be "Stuart Truth II
With respect, I never claimed that I could. And I think it is a massive and untrue generalisation to say all the jobs created are zero hours/low paid/going to foreigners.
For example, do Jaguar Land Rover create jobs like that? I bet they don't
Agreed. Which is why I am so disappointed in the government's fiscal position. I thought that by now we would be far further down the road than we are.
Thank goodness !!
I'll keep both posts .... Never let it be said ....
Titters ....
http://newsthump.com/2014/02/17/alex-salmond-claims-he-has-every-right-to-use-gym-hes-no-longer-member-of
@hat-tip: ChrisP@Warships1
I also think it's quite wrong to try and blame the UK for obesity in Scotland. If you become independent you won't all become svelte and gorgeous.
Rising obesity is a common problem amongst Western nations. Consumerism, lack of self-control, lack of willpower to exercise and so forth are all relevant factors.
It might have been worse .... I might have typed to you YES darling !!
Using that metric all millionaires are Tories and they pay their taxes. Unless they work for the sin-houses of Al-Beeb, Westminster, 'Olyrood, &c. ....
Scotland/England&Wales
Currency Union
Support: 70/25
Oppose: 18/58
Effect of Currency Union on SIndy economy:
Good: 54/41
Bad: 14/18
Effect of Currency Union on rUK economy:
Good: 55/18
Bad: 20/43
Who's bluffing now?
And on the EU, Scotland
Remains in: 44/23
Applies to join: 36/61
I think you are, regarding the "no currency union" position being a negotiating stance. The electoral timetable is critical here. The negotiations would be 2014-2016. The General Election is in 2015. Infuriating 60% of the electorate (and looking like a liar to 100% of the electorate) immediately prior to and during an election campaign is a great way to commit electoral suicide.
So, it won't happen. That's my view, anyway.
Also, Salmond can't claim Osborne et al. are unreasonable, because he's made the position clear. It's not like you're heading for the vote uncertain on this topic.
The only certainty, really, is that if Yes wins we're going to have a rather interesting couple of years.
If you are worried about Tramadol levels (although why you are taking opiates without a hospital-based specialist prescribing them) then perhaps you should vote Tory in 2015?
After all, Labour was planning to cut £20bn from the NHS budget in 2010.
@John_Lilburne
I agree, Sveaborg is lovely. I once dated a Swedish girl whose family name (roughly) translated as 'Guardians of the Portals of the East' - she took me there as it was one of their historical bases.
Also I alluded to the political realities of the UK which is so mismanaged as to mean lots of people north and south of the border assist people to become obese.
Even the Scots-born Anti-Christ could not rid Engerlundt of the curse that was "The Gormless One". Only the English electorate offered salvation (and ended up with the incompetent Cloggie DPM in his stead)....
How will an rUK CoE sell a currency union to an electorate who oppose it 2:1 and think it will damage the rUK economy?
For Scots it will be a breath of fresh air to be in charge of our own destiny again, but England is going to wake up with one hell of a hangover after drowning its sorrows over the penultimate loss of its long imperial decline. Only Wales to go.
The biggest uncertainty about the dissolution of the United Kingdom is not what Scotland is going to be like, but what is England going to do?
I don't think I have a clue what Unionist means, either. This time three years ago I though the jokes about sport were an amusing proxy for the real debate, but no one has come up with any issue more substantive than whether to cheer for Andy Murray. The Acts of Union were a fix up by corrupt commissioners, and if they'd had a referendum in Scotland no (to the union) would have won 75% of the vote. The entity created by the Acts is uniquely weird; no attempt to merge the legal systems, which are about as far apart as legal systems get, and no institution of a new parliament at, say, Carlisle on neutral ground (like DC). We have fruitfully cooperated in imperialism, engineering and world wars, but that was then and this is now. In fact thinking about it what we have now is a currency union with bells on. The all-important panda ratio tells us how far apart the countries are (and that point would apply equally to whichever party supplied the PM and led the coalition in England, but had one MP in Scotland). I think no will win (can't say I hope it will) and we will muddle along as before, with the atmosphere poisoned by the antics of both sides.
On a more interesting note, you could make a case for a huge number of men being bulimic, because purging (whilst commonly viewed as being induced vomiting) actually includes 'excessive' exercise.
Not always easy to correctly diagnose such things. I was immensely skinny at school, but never had any eating disorder.
And, to finish on a serious note, good for Salmond to lose some weight. I still think he's an absolute arse, of course, but a slightly lighter one.
Here's the leader of the (ahem) 'largest' Unionist party in Scotland:
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/wintour-and-watt/2011/dec/29/alexsalmond-scotland
... and you really don't want to look too closely at her fellow shadow cabinet members either.
23/02/2014 10:43
Nancy Dell'Olio is giving Sky News her analysis of Ukraine's internal politics. On #murnaghan!! Next: W Rooney on Chinese Politburo dynamics
Shade unfair, considering England et al. [according to what I've read here] rescued Scotland from immense debt due to a colonial misadventure. We didn't conquer and oppress you, we paid your bills.
I agree, however, that "What next?" is a question as much for England, Wales and Northern Ireland as for Scotland. Wales won't want to go its own way, I feel. It has 3% of the population and 2% of the economy. Welsh independence would amount to a crash in living standards.
Northern Ireland still isn't fully peaceful, and even if the UK excluding Scotland remains in one peace, a Scottish Yes could throw things up in the air.
Mr. Dodd, that's pretty much true. A serious problem is for children whose parents overfeed them. During childhood new fat cells (adipocytes) can be created, if too much is consumed. This effectively raises the permanent baseline of 'fatness' for the child when they become an adult, making it far harder to become svelte and gorgeous even with a good diet and exercise when they're grown up.
- "England's Tories are panicking again as the prospect of losing a quarter of their kingdom and with it their seat on the UN Security Council looms."
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/feb/16/scotland-independence-sterling-george-osborne
And ever heard of Coulport Carlotta? Where exactly in England are you planning on digging silos for the 200 nuclear warheads? I expect that the local residents' associations would like some advance warning.
a/ a yes vote in the referendum. Losing Scotland would be a blow to Cameron, but Labour would be looking at the loss of a few dozen seats, and might also catch some of the blame for losing the referendum.
b/ a major scandal hitting Labour, but leaving the Conservatives untouched. There's currently no reason to expect this, but nor can it be completely ruled out. (Note, I'm not a lawyer, but I understand discussing possible scandals could fall foul of the libel laws.)
c/ a successful terrorist attack on the cabinet. If half of them are dead, and the other half confined to wheelchairs, there will be a sympathy factor, and they may win points for 'defying the terrorists', 'leadership in a time of crisis', etc.
d/ a major international crisis - Russia and the EU getting involved in an Ukrainian civil war, China getting into a fight with Japan, revolution in Saudi Arabia, etc. This would make foreign policy a more significant issue, which could benefit the conservatives. They wouldn't need to have an outright advantage in foreign policy, just shoving things like the cost of living down the political agenda would help them.
I won't claim any of these are likely, but the aggregate probability of all these scenarios, and the others that could torpedo Labour, does set a floor on the chance of Cameron winning.
You appear to be gloating about making life hard for your 'best pals in the world'. Not the best way to encourage strong bilateral trade and foster a warm and cordial approach to independence negotiations.
http://www.theguardian.com/theobserver/2014/feb/23/the-big-issue-scottish-independence
Nothing must be as humiliating as losing a European empire to the French (and their Scots/Oirish toe-rags). The Swedes' lost to everyone....
They key to trimming a little excess weight is:
a) Eat a healthy amount; a little of everything, regularly.
b) Do a healthy amount of exercise.
The only thing that fasting for periods, or cutting out certain foodtypes (except in the case of allergies), will achieve is a slimming of the bank balance.
ISTR that SeanT is our dieting expert, but I can't quite recall what he did.
The question that should be asked with incredulity is – do Kevin McKenna or Alex Salmond really believe that the rest of the UK will agree effectively to underwrite the sovereign debt of a foreign country, in order to avoid these transaction costs on 10% of its trade?
Answer came there none......
In any case not every business in rUK will want to invoice in a minor volatile currency and may well invoice in Sterling - so the costs will be in Scotland, not rUK.
Why any need for £billions at HMNB Clyde when the French are an appreciative host (and a suitable site for a "broken-arrow") is beyond me....
'Ukip rebels stage alternative rally as crisis-hit party launches Scottish Euro candidate'
http://tinyurl.com/naowp9h
Frankly I'm amazed that UKIP are still getting 2-3% in Scottish polls. Thinking UKIPers must despair, knowing that they have a small but solid constituency they could build on if it weren't for the eejits.
Yet some fat ugly bloke demanded - and, I believe, went to court - using that same UK-wide percentage to justify his place at the "Prime-Ministerial Debates", 2010. Was it a call for a Barnett-Formula for ' a 50"-plasma TV's for every Scottish voter' subsidy...?
I did list twenty a few months ago, under the title "PB Hodges favourite straws to clutch at"....however, me and the squirrel are still carrying the burden.