politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » CON leadership betting analysis: This is less about Brexit and
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Lol, someone has just gobbled up my 16.0 on UKIP for Newport. But very regrettably I hadn't left shorter prices on the table, since they were just matched at 3.0.0
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It's a win win win win.IanB2 said:Looks to me like CM2 is starting to come up on the inside...
Win - for its proponents (obviously).
Win - for sense & sensibility, the most coherent deliverable non-hard brexit.
Win - for Labour, no Tory PM can pursue it therefore the political crisis deepens.
Win - for May, faced with this as the alternative her deal goes through at MV4 or 5.0 -
Indeed. At this moment of grave national crisis the PM and Cabinet girded their loins, faced the issues head on and led the country fearlessly toward .... er ....Pulpstar said:This whipped abstention from the cabinet is an absolute nonsense. It's going to bite her when something gets through with 290 odd votes.
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And in addition to this, people forget the Conservatives only have 314 MPs now after three defections to the Tiggers, and Bercow not actually being part of the '318' elected. That's deep into minority territory. Even with the DUP, that's only 324 (Assuming the C&S agreement survives).
I wouldn't rule out Sinn Fein turning up for the LOLZ. It's certainly not the most batshit insane thing that's happened so far this year.0 -
They are supposed to be listening to parliament, not the other way round. That's kinda the idea of the indicative votes, is it not?anothernick said:
Indeed. At this moment of grave national crisis the PM and Cabinet girded their loins, faced the issues head on and led the country fearlessly toward .... er ....Pulpstar said:This whipped abstention from the cabinet is an absolute nonsense. It's going to bite her when something gets through with 290 odd votes.
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The cabinet is a part of parliament too though !Richard_Nabavi said:
They are supposed to be listening to parliament, not the other way round. That's kinda the idea of the indicative votes, is it not?anothernick said:
Indeed. At this moment of grave national crisis the PM and Cabinet girded their loins, faced the issues head on and led the country fearlessly toward .... er ....Pulpstar said:This whipped abstention from the cabinet is an absolute nonsense. It's going to bite her when something gets through with 290 odd votes.
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Not when the Opposition is whipping it isn't.Richard_Nabavi said:
They are supposed to be listening to parliament, not the other way round. That's kinda the idea of the indicative votes, is it not?anothernick said:
Indeed. At this moment of grave national crisis the PM and Cabinet girded their loins, faced the issues head on and led the country fearlessly toward .... er ....Pulpstar said:This whipped abstention from the cabinet is an absolute nonsense. It's going to bite her when something gets through with 290 odd votes.
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Presumably they already know what they themselves think... hmm, I take the point...Pulpstar said:
The cabinet is a part of parliament too though !Richard_Nabavi said:
They are supposed to be listening to parliament, not the other way round. That's kinda the idea of the indicative votes, is it not?anothernick said:
Indeed. At this moment of grave national crisis the PM and Cabinet girded their loins, faced the issues head on and led the country fearlessly toward .... er ....Pulpstar said:This whipped abstention from the cabinet is an absolute nonsense. It's going to bite her when something gets through with 290 odd votes.
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Reset the Labour antisemite clock....and in a few weeks these kind of people could be in parliament.
https://order-order.com/2019/04/01/labour-pcc-wrote-fkin-ethiopian-jew-look-like-ethiopian-jew/0 -
Airbus UK factories “could well remain competitive,” even after Brexit, outgoing CEO Tom Enders said Mar. 29.
British sites enjoy lower cost levels than do sites in France and Germany, Enders said. “Our unions do not like to hear this, but it’s the reality,” he told reporters in Munich. Among other things, Airbus builds the wings for all of its commercial aircraft in the UK. “Our British colleagues are very productive.”
https://aviationweek.com/commercial-aviation/enders-airbus-uk-factories-could-remain-competitive-post-brexit0 -
For the indicative votes there should be no whipping. Labour leadership should be criticised if they do whip.
And so should the Tories and other parties!0 -
That is poor. It doesn't cover their divisions and just delays knowing the full picture and artificially lowers some optionsIanB2 said:Stunningly poor from our Government:
NEW - Downing Street sources confirm whipping for tonight - Tory MPs will be instructed to vote against the business motion, setting up indicative votes; given free votes on the Brexit options; but cabinet ministers will (again) be ordered to abstain.0 -
I remember getting a bet on Aldershot at the last election at 1-10 or some such. Quite what the bookie was thinking I have no idea.FrancisUrquhart said:Reset the Labour antisemite clock....
https://order-order.com/2019/04/01/labour-pcc-wrote-fkin-ethiopian-jew-look-like-ethiopian-jew/
Edit Was 1-14, hat tip to @AndyJS for a great money buying opportunity close to the election
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2017/04/21/gloomy-local-by-election-news-for-lab-in-the-week-a-general-election-was-called/0 -
And yet it is pretty well what a minority of those who voted leave advocated for in the first place, and satisfies the referendum vote of leaving the EU.Richard_Nabavi said:
They wouldn't compromise on the 'four freedoms'. We'd be subject to the full freedom of movement directive, plus obviously conforming to EU regulations on goods and services etc, adhering to the state subsidy rules, paying a fat fee (although probably less than as a full member), and probably EU environmental law and the social chapter. It really would not be very much different from full EU membership except we'd be out of the political structures, have no say (other than the right to lobby, like Norway) in regulations, and probably be out of the CAP and CFP (although the latter could be contentious).RobD said:
Have the EU signalled they would agree to compromise on their four freedoms? Seems to be a bit of a shot in the dark.nico67 said:As a Remainer I’m beginning to get seriously pissed off with the Peoples Vote .
This all or nothing approach isn’t going to work . They need to accept a compromise and support Common Market 2.0. At least those in the opposition need to support both but to vote against that seems very shortsighted .
This does deliver quite a lot for Leavers . Boles and co though need to stress how the UK could add some restrictions on freedom of movement .
Don’t get me wrong if a second vote happened I would be very happy but at this point it’s hard to see that .
It seems a daft idea to me - we might as well remain full members if we're going to accept all that lot - but if those who voted Leave can be conned into acquiescing in it, I suppose it has merit as a face-saving option, certainly compared with the full-on disaster of crashing out.
Edit: Corrected missing 'not' from 'It really would not be very much different..'
I entirely agree that we might as well remain as full members. But as we’ve seen, there is not even close to a majority in Parliament for revoking. That is not an argument against a consensus least worst option.
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Agreednico67 said:As a Remainer I’m beginning to get seriously pissed off with the Peoples Vote .
This all or nothing approach isn’t going to work . They need to accept a compromise and support Common Market 2.0. At least those in the opposition need to support both but to vote against that seems very shortsighted .
This does deliver quite a lot for Leavers . Boles and co though need to stress how the UK could add some restrictions on freedom of movement .
Don’t get me wrong if a second vote happened I would be very happy but at this point it’s hard to see that .0 -
The bit I don't understand about it is that it would only be part of the PD which is in no way legally binding. As such it would only take a harder (than CM2) Brexit leader of the Tory party who is half way electable to take over from May and we could see the whole thing ignored by the British in the next phase. If I were a Soft Brexit/Remain supporter I would be very dubious about supporting this as a mean as of getting a softer Brexit.Richard_Nabavi said:
They wouldn't compromise on the 'four freedoms'. We'd be subject to the full freedom of movement directive, plus obviously conforming to EU regulations on goods and services etc, adhering to the state subsidy rules, paying a fat fee (although probably less than as a full member), and probably EU environmental law and the social chapter. It really would not be very much different from full EU membership except we'd be out of the political structures, have no say (other than the right to lobby, like Norway) in regulations, and probably be out of the CAP and CFP (although the latter could be contentious).RobD said:
Have the EU signalled they would agree to compromise on their four freedoms? Seems to be a bit of a shot in the dark.nico67 said:As a Remainer I’m beginning to get seriously pissed off with the Peoples Vote .
This all or nothing approach isn’t going to work . They need to accept a compromise and support Common Market 2.0. At least those in the opposition need to support both but to vote against that seems very shortsighted .
This does deliver quite a lot for Leavers . Boles and co though need to stress how the UK could add some restrictions on freedom of movement .
Don’t get me wrong if a second vote happened I would be very happy but at this point it’s hard to see that .
It seems a daft idea to me - we might as well remain full members if we're going to accept all that lot - but if those who voted Leave can be conned into acquiescing in it, I suppose it has merit as a face-saving option, certainly compared with the full-on disaster of crashing out.
Edit: Corrected missing 'not' from 'It really would not be very much different..'0 -
nico67 said:
As a Remainer I’m beginning to get seriously pissed off with the Peoples Vote .
This all or nothing approach isn’t going to work . They need to accept a compromise and support Common Market 2.0. At least those in the opposition need to support both but to vote against that seems very shortsighted .
This does deliver quite a lot for Leavers . Boles and co though need to stress how the UK could add some restrictions on freedom of movement .
Don’t get me wrong if a second vote happened I would be very happy but at this point it’s hard to see that .
Agreed. CM 2.0 is a fair compromise. They should certainly vote for it.
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He definitely looks like a full-on hacker.Pulpstar said:
6'3, 240 pounds and a handicap under 3.FrancisUrquhart said:Mr Trump claims his handicap is 2.8, but that's also been questioned by Reilly, who says: "If Trump is a 2.8, Queen Elizabeth is a pole vaulter".
https://news.sky.com/story/amp/new-book-claims-trump-cheats-at-the-highest-level-on-the-golf-course-11681097
There is no way on god's earth trump is a single figure golfer. As a youth I played a lot and got down to 5, and to get past that you have to be really really good. One look at that swing and it is more 28 than 2.8
/Another mis-spent yoof here/0 -
Spot on. People on this forum are far, far too easily bogged down by overanalyses of the technicalities – witness the ludicrous contentions the other day that actually we would leave on 29 March despite the fact that the PM and EU had already announced otherwise.Richard_Tyndall said:
It would require no real extension at all beyond the May 22nd date. Since it is only for insertion into the PD rather than the WA it could be arranged very quickly. It needs no detail as the PD is only a list of aspirations.anothernick said:
Exactly, that is the point. Which is why PV supporters should not be worried about backing CM2. It will require a long delay while the details are worked out, and when the details are worked out it will be seen that it is not really a very sensible way forward as it keeps the UK in the EU economic structure without any say in the political structure. So there would be little point in leaving. When people realise that the pressure for reversal will grow.IanB2 said:
The key point is that any alternative approach needs a long extension. Unless you believe the suggestions this lunchtime that a CU PD could be quickly negotiated in time for exit on 12 April.RobD said:
I would expect the EU to jump at the chance to get this over the line and then worry about the negotiations of the final details over the two year transition period.
Like you, Richard, I am minded to analyse situations through the prism of the players' incentives. As the EU have a huge incentive to validate CM 2.0, it wouldn't pose a difficult journey.0 -
Common Market 2.0 does everything except address how the referendum campaign was won. Anything that junks the anti-immigration message that won can reasonably be criticised as incompatible with its (malign) spirit.0
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You spend an unhealthy amount of time on Order Order FUFrancisUrquhart said:Reset the Labour antisemite clock....and in a few weeks these kind of people could be in parliament.
https://order-order.com/2019/04/01/labour-pcc-wrote-fkin-ethiopian-jew-look-like-ethiopian-jew/
You really should get a life
Story after story falls apart when you remove the spin
Corbyn Commie Spy for example0 -
That's true, but then it is equally true of any option that the future government which ends up doing the negotiation of the next stage can't easily be bound now. It might not even be the same parliament.Richard_Tyndall said:The bit I don't understand about it is that it would only be part of the PD which is in no way legally binding. As such it would only take a harder (than CM2) Brexit leader of the Tory party who is half way electable to take over from May and we could see the whole thing ignored by the British in the next phase. If I were a Soft Brexit/Remain supporter I would be very dubious about supporting this as a mean as of getting a softer Brexit.
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CM 2.0 is certainly better than CU, Norway vs Turkey. I've realised just how atrocious a "a CU" option could be as an exporter over the weekend.
True CM 2.0 has a de facto CU with the backstop, but that is THE CU not A CU (Which is fine)0 -
Good.kle4 said:
Dead before arrival.IanB2 said:
Whatever happened to the boundary review proposal coming back to the Commons?GIN1138 said:
Rudd will be out at the next election. She's done.WhisperingOracle said:
Rudd and Stewart are the two humans, and possibly Liddington aswell.GIN1138 said:
Out of that lot Raab has the best chance I think as he's got the fewest enemies... Although the Murdoch press will support Hunt for what that's worth these days...AmpfieldAndy said:
Most of the names are failures just jockeying for a future Cabinet place. Those with a genuine chance in my view are Boris, who is a marmite character, Raab, who is being wrongly smeared by May’s office, Hunt, who has done nothing except alienate the medical profession and junior doctors in particular, and Gove, whose credibility is shot having alienated the teachers and stabbed both Cameron and Boris in the back.
However I think only a Brexiter will be supported.
Rory The Tory has no Cabinet experience.
Liddington? Can't see it but you never know...0 -
I experienced the same bafflement over this radged scheme. All they would really be voting for is May's fucking shit deal.Richard_Tyndall said:
The bit I don't understand about it is that it would only be part of the PD which is in no way legally binding. As such it would only take a harder (than CM2) Brexit leader of the Tory party who is half way electable to take over from May and we could see the whole thing ignored by the British in the next phase. If I were a Soft Brexit/Remain supporter I would be very dubious about supporting this as a mean as of getting a softer Brexit.Richard_Nabavi said:
They wouldn't compromise on the 'four freedoms'. We'd be subject to the full freedom of movement directive, plus obviously conforming to EU regulations on goods and services etc, adhering to the state subsidy rules, paying a fat fee (although probably less than as a full member), and probably EU environmental law and the social chapter. It really would not be very much different from full EU membership except we'd be out of the political structures, have no say (other than the right to lobby, like Norway) in regulations, and probably be out of the CAP and CFP (although the latter could be contentious).RobD said:
Have the EU signalled they would agree to compromise on their four freedoms? Seems to be a bit of a shot in the dark.nico67 said:As a Remainer I’m beginning to get seriously pissed off with the Peoples Vote .
This all or nothing approach isn’t going to work . They need to accept a compromise and support Common Market 2.0. At least those in the opposition need to support both but to vote against that seems very shortsighted .
This does deliver quite a lot for Leavers . Boles and co though need to stress how the UK could add some restrictions on freedom of movement .
Don’t get me wrong if a second vote happened I would be very happy but at this point it’s hard to see that .
It seems a daft idea to me - we might as well remain full members if we're going to accept all that lot - but if those who voted Leave can be conned into acquiescing in it, I suppose it has merit as a face-saving option, certainly compared with the full-on disaster of crashing out.
Edit: Corrected missing 'not' from 'It really would not be very much different..'0 -
What’s the hole in this particular story then.bigjohnowls said:
You spend an unhealthy amount of time on Order Order FUFrancisUrquhart said:Reset the Labour antisemite clock....and in a few weeks these kind of people could be in parliament.
https://order-order.com/2019/04/01/labour-pcc-wrote-fkin-ethiopian-jew-look-like-ethiopian-jew/
You really should get a life
Story after story falls apart when you remove the spin
Corbyn Commie Spy for example
*innocent face*0 -
https://twitter.com/_abbylouisee_/status/1112657378619600898Pulpstar said:
I remember getting a bet on Aldershot at the last election at 1-10 or some such. Quite what the bookie was thinking I have no idea.FrancisUrquhart said:Reset the Labour antisemite clock....
https://order-order.com/2019/04/01/labour-pcc-wrote-fkin-ethiopian-jew-look-like-ethiopian-jew/
Edit Was 1-14, hat tip to @AndyJS for a great money buying opportunity close to the election
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2017/04/21/gloomy-local-by-election-news-for-lab-in-the-week-a-general-election-was-called/0 -
Pulpstar said:
6'3, 240 pounds and a handicap under 3.FrancisUrquhart said:Mr Trump claims his handicap is 2.8, but that's also been questioned by Reilly, who says: "If Trump is a 2.8, Queen Elizabeth is a pole vaulter".
https://news.sky.com/story/amp/new-book-claims-trump-cheats-at-the-highest-level-on-the-golf-course-11681097
There is no way on god's earth trump is a single figure golfer. As a youth I played a lot and got down to 5, and to get past that you have to be really really good. One look at that swing and it is more 28 than 2.8
It will come as no surprise that the low-life Trumpton cheats at golf.0 -
Corbyn commie spy was a MSM, the sun (or the mail) "scoop", if my memory serves me correctly.bigjohnowls said:
You spend an unhealthy amount of time on Order Order FUFrancisUrquhart said:Reset the Labour antisemite clock....and in a few weeks these kind of people could be in parliament.
https://order-order.com/2019/04/01/labour-pcc-wrote-fkin-ethiopian-jew-look-like-ethiopian-jew/
You really should get a life
Story after story falls apart when you remove the spin
Corbyn Commie Spy for example
Which I said at the time was horeshit, because those hired to spy arent total morons.0 -
Yes, if CM2 wins and is agreed for PD purposes, or indeed CU, or even if the May deal returns and beats everything, the upshot is the same - the WA passes and we leave on 22/5 or soon after. No Euro elections.Richard_Tyndall said:It would require no real extension at all beyond the May 22nd date. Since it is only for insertion into the PD rather than the WA it could be arranged very quickly. It needs no detail as the PD is only a list of aspirations.
I would expect the EU to jump at the chance to get this over the line and then worry about the negotiations of the final details over the two year transition period.
Then a new Tory leader and a GE to decide the target Future Relationship for phase 2 and who will be running with it. The Labour and Tory manifesto for that election will trump whatever is in the PD.
This is what we are looking at, I think, unless Labour are sufficiently disciplined to block everything in the hope of forcing a long extension and/or triggering a snap crisis GE pre leaving.
SO exciting!0 -
I always suspected Letwin was a May plantDura_Ace said:
I experienced the same bafflement over this radged scheme. All they would really be voting for is May's fucking shit deal.Richard_Tyndall said:
The bit I don't understand about it is that it would only be part of the PD which is in no way legally binding. As such it would only take a harder (than CM2) Brexit leader of the Tory party who is half way electable to take over from May and we could see the whole thing ignored by the British in the next phase. If I were a Soft Brexit/Remain supporter I would be very dubious about supporting this as a mean as of getting a softer Brexit.Richard_Nabavi said:
They wouldn't compromise on the 'four freedoms'. We'd be subject to the full freedom of movement directive, plus obviously conforming to EU regulations on goods and services etc, adhering to the state subsidy rules, paying a fat fee (although probably less than as a full member), and probably EU environmental law and the social chapter. It really would not be very much different from full EU membership except we'd be out of the political structures, have no say (other than the right to lobby, like Norway) in regulations, and probably be out of the CAP and CFP (although the latter could be contentious).RobD said:
Have the EU signalled they would agree to compromise on their four freedoms? Seems to be a bit of a shot in the dark.nico67 said:As a Remainer I’m beginning to get seriously pissed off with the Peoples Vote .
This all or nothing approach isn’t going to work . They need to accept a compromise and support Common Market 2.0. At least those in the opposition need to support both but to vote against that seems very shortsighted .
This does deliver quite a lot for Leavers . Boles and co though need to stress how the UK could add some restrictions on freedom of movement .
Don’t get me wrong if a second vote happened I would be very happy but at this point it’s hard to see that .
It seems a daft idea to me - we might as well remain full members if we're going to accept all that lot - but if those who voted Leave can be conned into acquiescing in it, I suppose it has merit as a face-saving option, certainly compared with the full-on disaster of crashing out.
Edit: Corrected missing 'not' from 'It really would not be very much different..'
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I expect a lot of MP's are so shell-shocked, they just want to get anything over the line.AlastairMeeks said:Common Market 2.0 does everything except address how the referendum campaign was won. Anything that junks the anti-immigration message that won can reasonably be criticised as incompatible with its (malign) spirit.
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Well, Leavers know what to do.AlastairMeeks said:Common Market 2.0 does everything except address how the referendum campaign was won. Anything that junks the anti-immigration message that won can reasonably be criticised as incompatible with its (malign) spirit.
Ring or text ERG members and get them to vote for Brexit i.e. May's deal.
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Isn’t that in the “no sh*t Sherlock” category?Richard_Nabavi said:This doesn't seem to have received much attention, but if it's correct it is a really major development:
Meanwhile the Evening Standard can reveal that Attorney General Geoffrey Cox has warned Cabinet ministers that they are powerless to stop a soft Brexit if a cross-party group of MPs succeeds in getting an Act of Parliament passed this week.
Mr Cox’s verdict that the Government faces being legally out-gunned by Parliament is significant as it means that the Cabinet’s own legal chief believes that Sir Oliver Letwin’s plan to use an Act of Parliament to require a softer Brexit plan will have the full force of the law behind it.
Mr Cox is understood to have told at least two groups of ministers that any attempt to ignore or challenge the Act would be doomed to failure.
Mr Cox warned them that the Government could be obliged by the courts to show “good faith” and strive to implement the decision of Parliament.
https://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/chief-whip-julian-smith-accuses-mps-of-trying-to-undermine-theresa-may-in-bbc-documentary-on-brexit-a4105671.html
All the stuff about May ignoring parliament has been based on votes
If it’s the law then it’s the law.0 -
Is he not a communist spy? Agent Steptoe?bigjohnowls said:
You spend an unhealthy amount of time on Order Order FUFrancisUrquhart said:Reset the Labour antisemite clock....and in a few weeks these kind of people could be in parliament.
https://order-order.com/2019/04/01/labour-pcc-wrote-fkin-ethiopian-jew-look-like-ethiopian-jew/
You really should get a life
Story after story falls apart when you remove the spin
Corbyn Commie Spy for example0 -
CM2.0 was rejected by 95 votes last week, what's changed to get it over the line this week?0
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Juncker calls Cameron “one of the great destroyers of modern times”.
https://www.politico.eu/article/juncker-calls-david-cameron-one-of-the-great-destroyers-of-modern-times/0 -
In fairness, most of the ERG now realise. But, The Spartans are beyond reasoning with.rottenborough said:
Well, Leavers know what to do.AlastairMeeks said:Common Market 2.0 does everything except address how the referendum campaign was won. Anything that junks the anti-immigration message that won can reasonably be criticised as incompatible with its (malign) spirit.
Ring or text ERG members and get them to vote for Brexit i.e. May's deal.0 -
Well, as has been discussed before 48% cited Remain and a chunk of the 52% that voted Leave support free movement. Ergo, it's a fair compromise that respects the result of the referendum. MPs need to move on.AlastairMeeks said:Common Market 2.0 does everything except address how the referendum campaign was won. Anything that junks the anti-immigration message that won can reasonably be criticised as incompatible with its (malign) spirit.
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Or if you've reached the conclusion that the Gov't will always tonnes of immigration (Even if you personally aren't a fan) regardless of whether we're outside or inside the EU.Sean_F said:
I expect a lot of MP's are so shell-shocked, they just want to get anything over the line.AlastairMeeks said:Common Market 2.0 does everything except address how the referendum campaign was won. Anything that junks the anti-immigration message that won can reasonably be criticised as incompatible with its (malign) spirit.
Common Market 2.0 is definitely superior to CU anyway I think !0 -
I'd rather like that description. A modern Genghis Khan.williamglenn said:Juncker calls Cameron “one of the great destroyers of modern times”.
https://www.politico.eu/article/juncker-calls-david-cameron-one-of-the-great-destroyers-of-modern-times/0 -
I was out and about in the East Riding and saw a placard outside someone's house quoting from the Levellers declaration of independence.Anorak said:Was pootling through the Chilterns yesterday and somebody had put up a large hand-painted sign, on the side of the dual carriageway, saying "We voted LEAVE. Anything else is TREACHERY."
I haven't been out and about much recently. If this now a normal thing?
So maybe it is.
"...yet such hath been the wicked policies of those who from time to time have endeavoured to bring this Nation into bondage; that they have in all times either by the disuse or abuse of Parliaments deprived the people of their hopes..."0 -
Does that count those who voted Remain in spite of freedom of movement?_Anazina_ said:
Well, as has been discussed before 48% cited Remain and a chunk of the 52% that voted Leave support free movement. Ergo, it's a fair compromise that respects the result of the referendum. MPs need to move on.AlastairMeeks said:Common Market 2.0 does everything except address how the referendum campaign was won. Anything that junks the anti-immigration message that won can reasonably be criticised as incompatible with its (malign) spirit.
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Chris Bryant has just said he will vote for common market 2 but he thinks it is an unicorn because there will be a legally binding negotiating mandate for the HMG, as no one can bind any future government in negotiations
If that is true, common market 2 is an attempt to pull the wool over people's eyes0 -
Probably a fair number of the 48% don't like F o M, but I think most people just want the Commons to take a decision._Anazina_ said:
Well, as has been discussed before 48% cited Remain and a chunk of the 52% that voted Leave support free movement. Ergo, it's a fair compromise that respects the result of the referendum. MPs need to move on.AlastairMeeks said:Common Market 2.0 does everything except address how the referendum campaign was won. Anything that junks the anti-immigration message that won can reasonably be criticised as incompatible with its (malign) spirit.
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Good afternoon, everyone.
Have we had any more meaningless votes?0 -
Not exactly what he said about Dover-CalaisCyclefree said:
He did not understand about the importance of the Dover-Calais route to our trade. I don't give two hoots about his academic record. I have spent over three decades dealing with people with fantastic academic records who are as stupid as fuck. Being good at whatever he was doing before he became an MP says nothing about his achievements as an MP and there and in Cabinet he has not distinguished himself. He looks - and is - out of his depth.matt said:Cyclefree said:
Raab is a lightweight and a moron. He couldn't hack it as Brexit secretary. Yeah: May undermined him. So what? He should have been a damn sight tougher. If he can't deal with that, he doesn't have the balls needed to be leader or PM.GIN1138 said:
Out of that lot Raab has the best chance I think as he's got the fewest enemies... Although the Murdoch press will support Hunt for what that's worth these days...AmpfieldAndy said:
Most of the names are failures just jockeying for a future Cabinet place. Those with a genuine chance in my view are Boris, who is a marmite character, Raab, who is being wrongly smeared by May’s office, Hunt, who has done nothing except alienate the medical profession and junior doctors in particular, and Gove, whose credibility is shot having alienated the teachers and stabbed both Cameron and Boris in the back.
Frankly, no-one in the Cabinet particularly impresses. The Tories are split, are messing up the country and need to go away into a darkened corner and grow up before bothering the rest of us.
His academic record suggests otherwise to the accusation of being a moron. His employment record before before becoming an MP pushes strongly back against your accusation. Something to do with Westminster perhaps.
He said he didn’t realise it was “quite as significant” as it was.
That’s a relative statement rather than the absolute one you report0 -
Well it is from the get go as the common market that most people remember us joining (and would overwhelmingly win a majority with the public) doesn't exist anymore nor anything close to it.Big_G_NorthWales said:Chris Bryant has just said he will vote for common market 2 but he thinks it is an unicorn because there will be a legally binding negotiating mandate for the HMG, as no one can bind any future government in negotiations
If that is true, common market 2 is an attempt to pull the wool over people's eyes0 -
Isn't the 2016 Referendum result binding this government at the moment?Big_G_NorthWales said:Chris Bryant has just said he will vote for common market 2 but he thinks it is an unicorn because there will be a legally binding negotiating mandate for the HMG, as no one can bind any future government in negotiations
If that is true, common market 2 is an attempt to pull the wool over people's eyes0 -
The Accidental Destroyer, perhaps?Sean_F said:
I'd rather like that description. A modern Genghis Khan.williamglenn said:Juncker calls Cameron “one of the great destroyers of modern times”.
https://www.politico.eu/article/juncker-calls-david-cameron-one-of-the-great-destroyers-of-modern-times/
A white-gold wielder.....0 -
panic and desperationBenpointer said:CM2.0 was rejected by 95 votes last week, what's changed to get it over the line this week?
0 -
They voted for the status quo which included FOM. So Remain + Tyndallite Leave, is a decent compromise.RobD said:
Does that count those who voted Remain in spite of freedom of movement?_Anazina_ said:
Well, as has been discussed before 48% cited Remain and a chunk of the 52% that voted Leave support free movement. Ergo, it's a fair compromise that respects the result of the referendum. MPs need to move on.AlastairMeeks said:Common Market 2.0 does everything except address how the referendum campaign was won. Anything that junks the anti-immigration message that won can reasonably be criticised as incompatible with its (malign) spirit.
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You’ve spotted Corbyn’s cunning plan...FrancisUrquhart said:
I thought the whole point of these votes were that they weren't to be whipped so that they truly showed the view of the house, not what the party leaders want?El_Capitano said:
Surely if it is whipped it gives cover to the government to ignore it as they can say it wasn't a free vote.
(Convince Remainers he’s in their side while at the same time undermining their cause in favour of no deal)0 -
Sounds a bit too clever for uncle thickie to have come up with that plan.Charles said:
You’ve spotted Corbyn’s cunning plan...FrancisUrquhart said:
I thought the whole point of these votes were that they weren't to be whipped so that they truly showed the view of the house, not what the party leaders want?El_Capitano said:
Surely if it is whipped it gives cover to the government to ignore it as they can say it wasn't a free vote.
(Convince Remainers he’s in their side while at the same time undermining their cause in favour of no deal)0 -
Find the will first, the way later.Big_G_NorthWales said:Chris Bryant has just said he will vote for common market 2 but he thinks it is an unicorn because there will be a legally binding negotiating mandate for the HMG, as no one can bind any future government in negotiations
If that is true, common market 2 is an attempt to pull the wool over people's eyes
So far, we haven't even got an expressed will – so this would mark serious progress.
P.S. I think it will lose narrowly. Hope I am wrong.
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Are the SNP going to back it this time? That would close nearly half the gap.malcolmg said:
panic and desperationBenpointer said:CM2.0 was rejected by 95 votes last week, what's changed to get it over the line this week?
0 -
Thw WDA is the treaty, common market 2 would be in the non binding political declarationBenpointer said:
Isn't the 2016 Referendum result binding this government at the moment?Big_G_NorthWales said:Chris Bryant has just said he will vote for common market 2 but he thinks it is an unicorn because there will be a legally binding negotiating mandate for the HMG, as no one can bind any future government in negotiations
If that is true, common market 2 is an attempt to pull the wool over people's eyes0 -
I reckon there's way more of the 48% who don't like FoM but voted Remain for other reasons, than those of the 52% who do support FoM._Anazina_ said:
Well, as has been discussed before 48% cited Remain and a chunk of the 52% that voted Leave support free movement. Ergo, it's a fair compromise that respects the result of the referendum. MPs need to move on.AlastairMeeks said:Common Market 2.0 does everything except address how the referendum campaign was won. Anything that junks the anti-immigration message that won can reasonably be criticised as incompatible with its (malign) spirit.
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Not quite as easy to chant though.AnotherEngineer said:
I was out and about in the East Riding and saw a placard outside someone's house quoting from the Levellers declaration of independence.Anorak said:Was pootling through the Chilterns yesterday and somebody had put up a large hand-painted sign, on the side of the dual carriageway, saying "We voted LEAVE. Anything else is TREACHERY."
I haven't been out and about much recently. If this now a normal thing?
So maybe it is.
"...yet such hath been the wicked policies of those who from time to time have endeavoured to bring this Nation into bondage; that they have in all times either by the disuse or abuse of Parliaments deprived the people of their hopes..."0 -
Sure but if you voted remain in spite of FoM concerns then you weighed up that leaving would be more hassle than the FoM was. Enough leavers to make the difference wouldn't be overly concerned about immigration either. Ergo you get to over 50%.RobD said:
Does that count those who voted Remain in spite of freedom of movement?_Anazina_ said:
Well, as has been discussed before 48% cited Remain and a chunk of the 52% that voted Leave support free movement. Ergo, it's a fair compromise that respects the result of the referendum. MPs need to move on.AlastairMeeks said:Common Market 2.0 does everything except address how the referendum campaign was won. Anything that junks the anti-immigration message that won can reasonably be criticised as incompatible with its (malign) spirit.
0 -
I thought the SNP want to remain, not support a Norway dealmalcolmg said:
panic and desperationBenpointer said:CM2.0 was rejected by 95 votes last week, what's changed to get it over the line this week?
Interesting they now support Brexit0 -
I like the idea of Cameron proclaiming:-MarqueeMark said:
The Accidental Destroyer, perhaps?Sean_F said:
I'd rather like that description. A modern Genghis Khan.williamglenn said:Juncker calls Cameron “one of the great destroyers of modern times”.
https://www.politico.eu/article/juncker-calls-david-cameron-one-of-the-great-destroyers-of-modern-times/
A white-gold wielder.....
"I am the Punishment of God. If you had not committed such sins, He would not have sent such a punishment as I."0 -
Yes.Benpointer said:
Are the SNP going to back it this time? That would close nearly half the gap.malcolmg said:
panic and desperationBenpointer said:CM2.0 was rejected by 95 votes last week, what's changed to get it over the line this week?
0 -
No 10 announce the cabinet will not vote tonight on any option0
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Nothing says he came up with it. But he can follow itFrancisUrquhart said:
Sounds a bit too clever for uncle thickie to have come up with that plan.Charles said:
You’ve spotted Corbyn’s cunning plan...FrancisUrquhart said:
I thought the whole point of these votes were that they weren't to be whipped so that they truly showed the view of the house, not what the party leaders want?El_Capitano said:
Surely if it is whipped it gives cover to the government to ignore it as they can say it wasn't a free vote.
(Convince Remainers he’s in their side while at the same time undermining their cause in favour of no deal)0 -
The problem is that if you pass the WA we are out of the EU, the leverage is gone, and the dream of Remain is dead.nico67 said:As a Remainer I’m beginning to get seriously pissed off with the Peoples Vote .
This all or nothing approach isn’t going to work . They need to accept a compromise and support Common Market 2.0. At least those in the opposition need to support both but to vote against that seems very shortsighted .
This does deliver quite a lot for Leavers . Boles and co though need to stress how the UK could add some restrictions on freedom of movement .
Don’t get me wrong if a second vote happened I would be very happy but at this point it’s hard to see that .
OK, so the stated aim at that point could be a very closely aligned trade deal but this is not binding. Given that the Tories are about to change leader, the risk is that the new PM (perhaps following a general election which they win) would pursue maximum divergence and would, if necessary, walk away from the WA.
Oddly, the best chance of PV happening is the entrance into number 10 of the person the PV crowd seem to hate so much - Jeremy Corbyn.0 -
Why atrocious? Customs unions aren't magic bullets, nor will this one make up for the loss of business incurred by leaving the European Union. But the only question is whether being in a customs union is better than not being in one. As long as you are sensible about how you put your customs union together you will less friction of trade, which is surely a good thing for exporters?Pulpstar said:CM 2.0 is certainly better than CU, Norway vs Turkey. I've realised just how atrocious a "a CU" option could be as an exporter over the weekend.
True CM 2.0 has a de facto CU with the backstop, but that is THE CU not A CU (Which is fine)0 -
Ah, that's the name of my deodorant.malcolmg said:
panic and desperationBenpointer said:CM2.0 was rejected by 95 votes last week, what's changed to get it over the line this week?
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Going home early to catch the Arsenal game?Big_G_NorthWales said:No 10 announce the cabinet will not vote tonight on any option
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I don't think there is a contradiction. But in any case it hardly helps his case, does it? Not quite as significant as what, exactly? Our exports from the port of Liverpool perhaps? Or Maryport? For God's sake, the first thing a Brexit secretary should have done is got a briefing on our trade and what routes it uses. He might even have thought to get such a briefing before he became a Brexiteer and started campaigning for us to leave.Charles said:
Not exactly what he said about Dover-CalaisCyclefree said:
He did not understand about the importance of the Dover-Calais route to our trade. I don't give two hoots about his academic record. I have spent over three decades dealing with people with fantastic academic records who are as stupid as fuck. Being good at whatever he was doing before he became an MP says nothing about his achievements as an MP and there and in Cabinet he has not distinguished himself. He looks - and is - out of his depth.matt said:Cyclefree said:
Raab is a lightweight and a moron. He couldn't hack it as Brexit secretary. Yeah: May undermined him. So what? He should have been a damn sight tougher. If he can't deal with that, he doesn't have the balls needed to be leader or PM.GIN1138 said:
Out of that lot Raab has the best chance I think as he's got the fewest enemies... Although the Murdoch press will support Hunt for what that's worth these days...AmpfieldAndy said:
Most of the names are failures just jockeying for a future Cabinet place. Those with a genuine chance in my view are Boris, who is a marmite character, Raab, who is being wrongly smeared by May’s office, Hunt, who has done nothing except alienate the medical profession and junior doctors in particular, and Gove, whose credibility is shot having alienated the teachers and stabbed both Cameron and Boris in the back.
Frankly, no-one in the Cabinet particularly impresses. The Tories are split, are messing up the country and need to go away into a darkened corner and grow up before bothering the rest of us.
His academic record suggests otherwise to the accusation of being a moron. His employment record before before becoming an MP pushes strongly back against your accusation. Something to do with Westminster perhaps.
He said he didn’t realise it was “quite as significant” as it was.
That’s a relative statement rather than the absolute one you report0 -
Do the DUP really only desire No Deal ?
(Or remain.)
https://twitter.com/nickeardleybbc/status/11127092718782832650 -
Yes, they are. 35 of the votes needed (they abstained last time)..Benpointer said:
Are the SNP going to back it this time? That would close nearly half the gap.malcolmg said:
panic and desperationBenpointer said:CM2.0 was rejected by 95 votes last week, what's changed to get it over the line this week?
I support a 2nd referendum, but MPs who use that to oppose reasonable compromise are exhausting my patience (and that includes the whole independent group, a couple of whom I count as personal friends).0 -
I think that's correct.Nigelb said:Do the DUP really only desire No Deal ?
(Or remain.)
https://twitter.com/nickeardleybbc/status/11127092718782832650 -
White gold wielder? Is that a Thomas covenant reference?!MarqueeMark said:
The Accidental Destroyer, perhaps?Sean_F said:
I'd rather like that description. A modern Genghis Khan.williamglenn said:Juncker calls Cameron “one of the great destroyers of modern times”.
https://www.politico.eu/article/juncker-calls-david-cameron-one-of-the-great-destroyers-of-modern-times/
A white-gold wielder.....
Juncker is showing his pettiness though, whatever the awfulness or not of leaving the EU that's a ridiculous thing to suggest.0 -
They demand pineapple and cheddar cheese on a stick....Nigelb said:Do the DUP really only desire No Deal ?
(Or remain.)
https://twitter.com/nickeardleybbc/status/11127092718782832650 -
Common Market 2 is nothing more than a clever slogan. Ranks alongside take back control and independent trade policy. Rather better than Brexit means Brexit. But there is no substance, it means different things to different people and if it is ever defined in detail it will lose a lot of the support it now has. It is merely a step on the road to reversing Brexit, and, if it gets a majority, quite a significant one at that.Big_G_NorthWales said:Chris Bryant has just said he will vote for common market 2 but he thinks it is an unicorn because there will be a legally binding negotiating mandate for the HMG, as no one can bind any future government in negotiations
If that is true, common market 2 is an attempt to pull the wool over people's eyes0 -
whats the point of the lot of them?Big_G_NorthWales said:No 10 announce the cabinet will not vote tonight on any option
0 -
If something like CM2 passes, but opposition in the Conservative Party is so intense that the government can't accept it, then I think the government has no choice but to go into Opposition.0 -
Mr. Slackbladder, space cannon ammunition?0
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Looks very like itNigelb said:Do the DUP really only desire No Deal ?
(Or remain.)
https://twitter.com/nickeardleybbc/status/11127092718782832650 -
Making the rest of us look good by comparison?Slackbladder said:
whats the point of the lot of them?Big_G_NorthWales said:No 10 announce the cabinet will not vote tonight on any option
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Or a Deal/Remain referendum. Brexiteers could acquiesce because it's better for them than an enforced Soft Brexit, and it poses a strategic problem for Labour.Sean_F said:
If something like CM2 passes, but opposition in the Conservative Party is so intense that the government can't accept it, then I think the government has no choice but to go into Opposition.0 -
SNP whipping in favour instead of abstaining closes the gap by 35 (down to 60)Benpointer said:CM2.0 was rejected by 95 votes last week, what's changed to get it over the line this week?
Labour whipping in favour instead of mildly encouraging. Last time they had about 42 against and about 60 abstentions on it - that could be enough to get it over the line. If 10-20 of the 42 switch, the gap goes down to 20-40; if 40 of the abstentions go aye instead, it's over the line.0 -
When do we find out which motions Bercow has selected for voting?0
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Oh he didn’t come up with it - he’s just the brandingFrancisUrquhart said:
Sounds a bit too clever for uncle thickie to have come up with that plan.Charles said:
You’ve spotted Corbyn’s cunning plan...FrancisUrquhart said:
I thought the whole point of these votes were that they weren't to be whipped so that they truly showed the view of the house, not what the party leaders want?El_Capitano said:
Surely if it is whipped it gives cover to the government to ignore it as they can say it wasn't a free vote.
(Convince Remainers he’s in their side while at the same time undermining their cause in favour of no deal)0 -
What happens if we have multiple options getting majority support (eg Customs Union, CM2.0, PV)?0
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Raab also said he didn't read the 35-page Good Friday Agreement in full because it's not "a cracking read".Cyclefree said:
I don't think there is a contradiction. But in any case it hardly helps his case, does it? Not quite as significant as what, exactly? Our exports from the port of Liverpool perhaps? Or Maryport? For God's sake, the first thing a Brexit secretary should have done is got a briefing on our trade and what routes it uses. He might even have thought to get such a briefing before he became a Brexiteer and started campaigning for us to leave.Charles said:
Not exactly what he said about Dover-CalaisCyclefree said:
He did not understand about the importance of the Dover-Calais route to our trade. I don't give two hoots about his academic record. I have spent over three decades dealing with people with fantastic academic records who are as stupid as fuck. Being good at whatever he was doing before he became an MP says nothing about his achievements as an MP and there and in Cabinet he has not distinguished himself. He looks - and is - out of his depth.matt said:Cyclefree said:
Raab is a lightweight and a moron. He couldn't hack it as Brexit secretary. Yeah: May undermined him. So what? He should have been a damn sight tougher. If he can't deal with that, he doesn't have the balls needed to be leader or PM.GIN1138 said:
Out of that lot Raab has the best chance I think as he's got the fewest enemies... Although the Murdoch press will support Hunt for what that's worth these days...AmpfieldAndy said:
Most of the names are failures just jockeying for a future Cabinet place. Those with a genuine chance in my view are Boris, who is a marmite character, Raab, who is being wrongly smeared by May’s office, Hunt, who has done nothing except alienate the medical profession and junior doctors in particular, and Gove, whose credibility is shot having alienated the teachers and stabbed both Cameron and Boris in the back.
Frankly, no-one in the Cabinet particularly impresses. The Tories are split, are messing up the country and need to go away into a darkened corner and grow up before bothering the rest of us.
His academic record suggests otherwise to the accusation of being a moron. His employment record before before becoming an MP pushes strongly back against your accusation. Something to do with Westminster perhaps.
He said he didn’t realise it was “quite as significant” as it was.
That’s a relative statement rather than the absolute one you report0 -
Almost no one in the Conservative Party supports it.williamglenn said:
Or a Deal/Remain referendum. Brexiteers could acquiesce because it's better for them than an enforced Soft Brexit, and it poses a strategic problem for Labour.Sean_F said:
If something like CM2 passes, but opposition in the Conservative Party is so intense that the government can't accept it, then I think the government has no choice but to go into Opposition.0 -
We could have a people's vote on which option to adopt?Andy_Cooke said:What happens if we have multiple options getting majority support (eg Customs Union, CM2.0, PV)?
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That's to be expected of the least worst option.Sean_F said:
Almost no one in the Conservative Party supports it.williamglenn said:
Or a Deal/Remain referendum. Brexiteers could acquiesce because it's better for them than an enforced Soft Brexit, and it poses a strategic problem for Labour.Sean_F said:
If something like CM2 passes, but opposition in the Conservative Party is so intense that the government can't accept it, then I think the government has no choice but to go into Opposition.
By the way, there was quite a strong contingent of Conservatives for a Peoples' Vote on the march in London.0 -
Any outcome other than those two contains the backstop. If you're opposed to the backstop then you're opposed to CU, CM2.0, May's deal on it's own, Labour's alternative plan or anything else for that matter.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Looks very like itNigelb said:Do the DUP really only desire No Deal ?
(Or remain.)
https://twitter.com/nickeardleybbc/status/11127092718782832650 -
Exactly. You need to give people a way to climb down. Most people don't actively want to harm the country. So you say, here is a solution that respects the result and minimises the damage. You sort out the nitty gritty stuff later. Then people can decide if not having a say is worse than going through another referendum.anothernick said:
Common Market 2 is nothing more than a clever slogan. Ranks alongside take back control and independent trade policy. Rather better than Brexit means Brexit. But there is no substance, it means different things to different people and if it is ever defined in detail it will lose a lot of the support it now has. It is merely a step on the road to reversing Brexit, and, if it gets a majority, quite a significant one at that.Big_G_NorthWales said:Chris Bryant has just said he will vote for common market 2 but he thinks it is an unicorn because there will be a legally binding negotiating mandate for the HMG, as no one can bind any future government in negotiations
If that is true, common market 2 is an attempt to pull the wool over people's eyes0 -
There should be a second referendum
Mays deal vs carry on negotiating0 -
Very soon liveBenpointer said:When do we find out which motions Bercow has selected for voting?
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Well that's scuppered that then. It's about time the country realised it should stop trying to put its interests before those of the Conservative Party!Sean_F said:
Almost no one in the Conservative Party supports it.williamglenn said:
Or a Deal/Remain referendum. Brexiteers could acquiesce because it's better for them than an enforced Soft Brexit, and it poses a strategic problem for Labour.Sean_F said:
If something like CM2 passes, but opposition in the Conservative Party is so intense that the government can't accept it, then I think the government has no choice but to go into Opposition.0 -
If we do end up going to Norway, Remainers will forever be toasting the Spartans and Theresa May for refusing to accept the far harder Customs Union compromise that would surely have got through, given Theresa May's initial willingness to discuss customs arrangements.0
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The amendment that should have been supported is Norway without a CU .
That would allow trade deals , out of the ECJ , fisheries and agriculture come into UK control.
That’s an easier sell .
However now that Labour are going to whip for Common Market 2.0 and with SNP support it’s likely to get at least towards the 250 mark .0 -
Because it relies on opposition votes to get through - and now apparently has the tacit approval of the DUP - if passed, any resiling from it would mean a general election... which realistically is the means by which any post Brexit future will be settled, in any event.Dura_Ace said:
I experienced the same bafflement over this radged scheme. All they would really be voting for is May's fucking shit deal.Richard_Tyndall said:
The bit I don't understand about it is that it would only be part of the PD which is in no way legally binding. As such it would only take a harder (than CM2) Brexit leader of the Tory party who is half way electable to take over from May and we could see the whole thing ignored by the British in the next phase. If I were a Soft Brexit/Remain supporter I would be very dubious about supporting this as a mean as of getting a softer Brexit.Richard_Nabavi said:
They wouldn't compromise on the 'four freedoms'. We'd be subject to the full freedom of movement directive, plus obviously conforming to EU regulations on goods and services etc, adhering to the state subsidy rules, paying a fat fee (although probably less than as a full member), and probably EU environmental law and the social chapter. It really would not be very much different from full EU membership except we'd be out of the political structures, have no say (other than the right to lobby, like Norway) in regulations, and probably be out of the CAP and CFP (although the latter could be contentious).RobD said:
Have the EU signalled they would agree to compromise on their four freedoms? Seems to be a bit of a shot in the dark.nico67 said:As a Remainer I’m beginning to get seriously pissed off with the Peoples Vote .
This all or nothing approach isn’t going to work . They need to accept a compromise and support Common Market 2.0. At least those in the opposition need to support both but to vote against that seems very shortsighted .
This does deliver quite a lot for Leavers . Boles and co though need to stress how the UK could add some restrictions on freedom of movement .
Don’t get me wrong if a second vote happened I would be very happy but at this point it’s hard to see that .
It seems a daft idea to me - we might as well remain full members if we're going to accept all that lot - but if those who voted Leave can be conned into acquiescing in it, I suppose it has merit as a face-saving option, certainly compared with the full-on disaster of crashing out.
Edit: Corrected missing 'not' from 'It really would not be very much different..'
It is no more legally binding than the referendum vote - but perhaps equally effective politically ?
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