politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » 24 hours after TMay’s exit plan announcement and Michael Gove

Casino_Royale said:

I'm actually a layer of Gove at present.

Wise.

FWIW, I think the Tories need to skip a whole generation and do a wholesale reboot. Experience be damned, as the problem is far more fundamental.

That's why my (personal) choice is Johnny Mercer. On the fence originally over Brexit, not thinking it really was a central issue to his constituents lives, and very reasonable and human, he now favours Brexit, but also sees the huge weaknesses of the Tories and knows they must change.

I don't know if he can do it but I pray he can, and build a strong team around him. I hope he's getting training and support.

It was no doubt not original but very apt nevertheless...

https://twitter.com/iainjwatson/status/1111326290836144128

kle4 said:

kle4 said:

IanB2 said:

kle4 said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

IanB2 said:

The opposition line of attack is clearly going to be "blind Brexit" redoubled, contrasting the transparency of the indicative debate on options with the motion to write HMG a blank cheque.

Which is garbage, of course, because you can still have the indicative debate (almost all the discussion was about the PD). Not that that will deter them.

Except that it rules out the option (pass WA subject to confirmatory referendum) that got the most votes yesterday. It's a blank cheque to May and whatever headbanger replaces her, Labour would be mad to allow their fingerprints anywhere near it.

Perhaps so. But if fails, as expected, but gets more votes than the options voted on yesterday, what then? Does Customs union have to drop out? If it is provably more popular than any other option that could be very relevant.

The government had the chance to table it yesterday!

I agree, but people were whinging yesterday that the top two items yesterday were more popular than the deal as if that made a difference, therefore if the WA is more popular those same people must think it significant.

It would be an argument in the government's favour if the IO process could run on with a narrow loser, but I really think it needs to identify a winner on Monday. Given that the WA will have lost tomorrow (otherwise IO ends) the point becomes academic.

Casino_Royale said:

FWIW, I think the Tories need to skip a whole generation and do a wholesale reboot. Experience be damned, as the problem is far more fundamental.

That's why my (personal) choice is Johnny Mercer. On the fence originally over Brexit, not thinking it really was a central issue to his constituents lives, and very reasonable and human, he now favours Brexit, but also sees the huge weaknesses of the Tories and knows they must change.

I don't know if he can do it but I pray he can, and build a strong team around him. I hope he's getting training and support.

This, except Rory Stewart, not Mercer.

Casino_Royale said:

FWIW, I think the Tories need to skip a whole generation and do a wholesale reboot. Experience be damned, as the problem is far more fundamental.

That's why my (personal) choice is Johnny Mercer. On the fence originally over Brexit, not thinking it really was a central issue to his constituents lives, and very reasonable and human, he now favours Brexit, but also sees the huge weaknesses of the Tories and knows they must change.

I don't know if he can do it but I pray he can, and build a strong team around him. I hope he's getting training and support.

I agree, except that those sort of changes are done in opposition. Very hard for an upcoming relative youngster to drop straight into PM. Not least because of the power of potential patronage that the oldies will have been working on for some time.

Benpointer said:

It was no doubt not original but very apt nevertheless...

https://twitter.com/iainjwatson/status/1111326290836144128

It's a good line, which is why it is being used so much, but really it is just sad - the best chance for something to get resolved and everyone to move forward at least has been snapped out.

But here's hoping Monday brings some forward progress, particularly since tomorrow won't - it's a bit of a circus, necessitated by needing to at least try to get something passed to meet the 22 May date.

Benpointer said:

Casino_Royale said:

FWIW, I think the Tories need to skip a whole generation and do a wholesale reboot. Experience be damned, as the problem is far more fundamental.

That's why my (personal) choice is Johnny Mercer. On the fence originally over Brexit, not thinking it really was a central issue to his constituents lives, and very reasonable and human, he now favours Brexit, but also sees the huge weaknesses of the Tories and knows they must change.

I don't know if he can do it but I pray he can, and build a strong team around him. I hope he's getting training and support.

Interesting comments. Do you think Brexit or the EU is a central issue to most people's lives?

I think it is but they don't know it; most people don't appreciate how important Europe is to our lives today imo.

Lol @ the usual Tory activist trying to persuade everyone to get worked up about Europe rather than trivia like housing, health and transport.

Jeremy Hunt interview the Evening Standard

'Like a Theresa May 2.0 with updated software, says a former minister. If she's the iPhone 4, he's the 8s'

https://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/jeremy-hunt-on-theresa-may-and-changing-his-mind-on-brexit-a4103156.html

IanB2 said:

kle4 said:

Benpointer said:

It was no doubt not original but very apt nevertheless...

https://twitter.com/iainjwatson/status/1111326290836144128

It's a good line, which is why it is being used so much, but really it is just sad - the best chance for something to get resolved and everyone to move forward at least has been snapped out.

But here's hoping Monday brings some forward progress, particularly since tomorrow won't - it's a bit of a circus, necessitated by needing to at least try to get something passed to meet the 22 May date.

I preferred the one about Mrs May not having enough support to resign.

Or this one...

https://twitter.com/DuncanWeldon/status/1111008567660822529

IanB2 said:

Benpointer said:

Casino_Royale said:

FWIW, I think the Tories need to skip a whole generation and do a wholesale reboot. Experience be damned, as the problem is far more fundamental.

That's why my (personal) choice is Johnny Mercer. On the fence originally over Brexit, not thinking it really was a central issue to his constituents lives, and very reasonable and human, he now favours Brexit, but also sees the huge weaknesses of the Tories and knows they must change.

I don't know if he can do it but I pray he can, and build a strong team around him. I hope he's getting training and support.

Interesting comments. Do you think Brexit or the EU is a central issue to most people's lives?

I think it is but they don't know it; most people don't appreciate how important Europe is to our lives today imo.

Lol @ the usual Tory activist trying to persuade everyone to get worked up about Europe rather than trivia like housing, health and transport.

I don't think @benoointer is a Tory.

GIN1138 said:

We have a path forwards:

GIN1138 said:

1. WA passes minus PD

2. Theresa May resigns - Con leadership election - Theresa stays on as PM during leadership election.

3. We leave the EU on 22nd May with the WA.

4. New Con leader.

5. General election to decide what we want from our future arrangements.

6. New government begins negotiations for future trade deal endorsed by general election.

Can that work?

Labour/Jezza should go for this. They get their much wanted general election by July and if they win it they can implement #CorbynsCustomsUnion (if Con win they can try for Canada or something similar?)

Do it Jezza!

After (1) Corbyn should immediately table a VONC. Assuming the DUP are true to their word it might be close.

Benpointer said:

Sean_F said:

IanB2 said:

Benpointer said:

Casino_Royale said:

FWIW, I think the Tories need to skip a whole generation and do a wholesale reboot. Experience be damned, as the problem is far more fundamental.

That's why my (personal) choice is Johnny Mercer. On the fence originally over Brexit, not thinking it really was a central issue to his constituents lives, and very reasonable and human, he now favours Brexit, but also sees the huge weaknesses of the Tories and knows they must change.

I don't know if he can do it but I pray he can, and build a strong team around him. I hope he's getting training and support.

Interesting comments. Do you think Brexit or the EU is a central issue to most people's lives?

I think it is but they don't know it; most people don't appreciate how important Europe is to our lives today imo.

Lol @ the usual Tory activist trying to persuade everyone to get worked up about Europe rather than trivia like housing, health and transport.

I don't think @benoointer is a Tory.

Perceptive and accurate. But I assumed @IanB2 was referring to @Casino_Royale... else I'd have been mortified!

I think the blockquotes might have been off in the thread. It was aimed at whoever was suggesting people needed to appreciate how Europe should be the biggest issue in their lives.

Benpointer said:

Casino_Royale said:

FWIW, I think the Tories need to skip a whole generation and do a wholesale reboot. Experience be damned, as the problem is far more fundamental.

That's why my (personal) choice is Johnny Mercer. On the fence originally over Brexit, not thinking it really was a central issue to his constituents lives, and very reasonable and human, he now favours Brexit, but also sees the huge weaknesses of the Tories and knows they must change.

I don't know if he can do it but I pray he can, and build a strong team around him. I hope he's getting training and support.

Interesting comments. Do you think Brexit or the EU is a central issue to most people's lives?

I think it is but they don't know it; most people don't appreciate how important Europe is to our lives today imo.

A great number of people did know it, hence UKIP winning the Euros in 2014, getting 13% at the 2015 GE, and Leave winning the referendum in 2016

IanB2 said:

Bottom line is that if Government fails again tomorrow and Letwin produces a supported option on Monday, the pressure on government to change direction will be immense.

Mind, it is Letwin, so let's not get our hopes up.

Let Letwin win?

isam said:

Benpointer said:

Casino_Royale said:

FWIW, I think the Tories need to skip a whole generation and do a wholesale reboot. Experience be damned, as the problem is far more fundamental.

That's why my (personal) choice is Johnny Mercer. On the fence originally over Brexit, not thinking it really was a central issue to his constituents lives, and very reasonable and human, he now favours Brexit, but also sees the huge weaknesses of the Tories and knows they must change.

I don't know if he can do it but I pray he can, and build a strong team around him. I hope he's getting training and support.

Interesting comments. Do you think Brexit or the EU is a central issue to most people's lives?

I think it is but they don't know it; most people don't appreciate how important Europe is to our lives today imo.

A great number of people did know it, hence UKIP winning the Euros in 2014, getting 13% at the 2015 GE, and Leave winning the referendum in 2016

At best that suggests 13% agree, and I'd suggest a chunk of UKIP's vote is straight protest or NOTA. The Euros and the referendum are obviously about Europe and the votes count the same whether the X is marked lightly or heavily etched into the ballot paper.

Jonathan said:

IanB2 said:

Bottom line is that if Government fails again tomorrow and Letwin produces a supported option on Monday, the pressure on government to change direction will be immense.

Mind, it is Letwin, so let's not get our hopes up.

Let Letwin win?

Wulfrun_Phil said:

If the market were to be that of the next Conservative leader to lose a general election, there is a plausible case for Gove to be the favorite.

With a side bet on Mrs May

IanB2 said:

Bottom line is that if Government fails again tomorrow and Letwin produces a supported option on Monday, the pressure on government to change direction will be immense.

Mind, it is Letwin, so let's not get our hopes up.

Never do anymore, but it's better than hoping Parliament will do the logical thing (given how many don't have as big an issue with the WA as the PD) and pass the damn thing tomorrow.

HYUFD said:

New report says what we really need is a high-quality private rental market like Switzerland and Germany not higher home ownership, that would also improve flexibility in the economy and and keep UK unemployment down

https://www.standard.co.uk/business/anthony-hilton-home-ownership-and-what-it-really-costs-the-workforce-a4103281.html

HYUFD said:

New report says what we really need is a high-quality private rental market like Switzerland and Germany not higher home ownership, that would also improve flexibility in the economy and and keep UK unemployment down

https://www.standard.co.uk/business/anthony-hilton-home-ownership-and-what-it-really-costs-the-workforce-a4103281.html

I read the article, and was not convinced. I think that while the availability of housing to rent will help labour mobility, flexible labour markets are much more important for providing jobs.

Greece has high unemployment because it has inflexible labour markets, and because its economy fell off a cliff. Spain has had a very good record of job creation since 2014.

MayDay’s central self-preservation strategy presumably requires her to create a Schrodinger’s Brexit scenario, whereby Brexit is simultaneously alive and dead, and prolonging that as long as possible, ideally for several years. Therefore she stays in office.

You have to hand it to the girl, she’s doing well so far!

HYUFD said:

Jeremy Hunt interview the Evening Standard

'Like a Theresa May 2.0 with updated software, says a former minister. If she's the iPhone 4, he's the 8s'

https://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/jeremy-hunt-on-theresa-may-and-changing-his-mind-on-brexit-a4103156.html

I'm not sure that is right. Gove is Theresa May redux: inflexible, his way or nothing. Hunt is Boris: ambitious but somehow lightweight. His first triumph was to stop the BBC showing The Apprentice. Though in the end, I'm not sure drawing these parallels gets us very far.

Champagne on standby. I only wish he'd been in charge of the first phase of negotiations...

OnlyLivingBoy said:

HYUFD said:

Jeremy Hunt interview the Evening Standard

'Like a Theresa May 2.0 with updated software, says a former minister. If she's the iPhone 4, he's the 8s'

https://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/jeremy-hunt-on-theresa-may-and-changing-his-mind-on-brexit-a4103156.html

I can't work out whether that is supposed to be a complement or an insult. But the fact that a former Minister of the Crown can spout such inane wank says a lot about how we have ended up in this mess.

I think It is trying to present Hunt as the Tory Mitt Romney which in many respects he is, from the business background to the corporate style and the 'etch a sketch' movement he has made from Remain to Leave and the right and would try and make back to the centre again for the general election

DecrepitJohnL said:

HYUFD said:

Jeremy Hunt interview the Evening Standard

'Like a Theresa May 2.0 with updated software, says a former minister. If she's the iPhone 4, he's the 8s'

https://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/jeremy-hunt-on-theresa-may-and-changing-his-mind-on-brexit-a4103156.html

I'm not sure that is right. Gove is Theresa May redux: inflexible, his way or nothing. Hunt is Boris: ambitious but somehow lightweight. His first triumph was to stop the BBC showing The Apprentice. Though in the end, I'm not sure drawing these parallels gets us very far.

Hunt lacks the charisma of Boris though, he is Romney to Boris' Trump

why is boycottrachelriley trending ... what now?

kle4 said:

IanB2 said:

Bottom line is that if Government fails again tomorrow and Letwin produces a supported option on Monday, the pressure on government to change direction will be immense.

Mind, it is Letwin, so let's not get our hopes up.

Never do anymore, but it's better than hoping Parliament will do the logical thing (given how many don't have as big an issue with the WA as the PD) and pass the damn thing tomorrow.

Well, if Parliament is really committed to avoiding No Deal *AND* it won't contemplate passing the WA (whether directly or with a Deal/Remain referendum attached, which the EU would presumably provide an extension for,) then the only other realistic way this can be achieved now is through Revocation.

MPs could well find themselves on the 10th or 11th of April facing Revoke or No Deal as the only two remaining options, and having to vote for the former or allow the latter to come to pass by default. That'll be fun for them - though no more or less than they deserve, frankly.

Scrapheap_as_was said:

why is boycottrachelriley trending ... what now?

She's a Zionist Nazi, one imagines.

I think this is clever politics by TM

Putting the WDA in front of the HOC gives the opportunity for the ERG, DUP and labour to defeat it heavily, thereby ending the deal and leaving on the 22nd May

There are many comments on what happens next but most of them ignore the fact that what happens next is the 12th April and the ERG and DUP dream of no deal

There has to be an agreement next week in the HOC that is actually douable, and has sufficient support to put in place the legislation to stop no deal. There is no point in saying labour want a GE and should support a second referendum as that decision would be out of time

The HOC needs to agree an extension to the 12th April that accepts we elect MEPs in May and has a proposition that the EU can agree to, including a referendum, as the EU will not permit this to continue

Today has seen many in the EU expressing horror at us being in their new Parliament and the demands for no deal by the EU are at the highest level so far

Next monday needs to see the elimination of the amendments until a majority view emerges and TM creates the political space to accept the verdict, as she cannot be sacked now she is going

Could TM final act be to agree to the deal with a confirmation referendum and then put in place her succession

Fantasy or possibility ?

@Big_G_NorthWales and what happens if the public says ‘no’ to the deal in this ‘confirmatory referendum’? We’re back to square one in interpreting the result. Does it mean the country wants no deal, a different deal or remain?

Awful idea all round.

Big_G_NorthWales said:

I think this is clever politics by TM

Putting the WDA in front of the HOC gives the opportunity for the ERG, DUP and labour to defeat it heavily, thereby ending the deal and leaving on the 22nd May

There are many comments on what happens next but most of them ignore the fact that what happens next is the 12th April and the ERG and DUP dream of no deal

There has to be an agreement next week in the HOC that is actually douable, and has sufficient support to put in place the legislation to stop no deal. There is no point in saying labour want a GE and should support a second referendum as that decision would be out of time

The HOC needs to agree an extension to the 12th April that accepts we elect MEPs in May and has a proposition that the EU can agree to, including a referendum, as the EU will not permit this to continue

Today has seen many in the EU expressing horror at us being in their new Parliament and the demands for no deal by the EU are at the highest level so far

Next monday needs to see the elimination of the amendments until a majority view emerges and TM creates the political space to accept the verdict, as she cannot be sacked now she is going

Could TM final act be to agree to the deal with a confirmation referendum and then put in place her succession

Fantasy or possibility ?

I didn't follow that. You're saying she now secretly supports a confirmatory referendum and has a cunning plan to get one by having the WA defeated tomorrow?

AmpfieldAndy said:

Difficult to see a winner frankly. I can’t see Gove becoming party leader after he knifed Johnson in the back last time and given how he antagonised the teachers. Johnson has no obvious qualities beyond being a good journalist but he seems to be the members choice if he made it to the MPs short list. Hunt and Javid are all talk and no substance. Raab would have a good chance but only if Johnson doesnt stand.

Whoever wins needs to have a lot more charisma and campaigning skills than May, but that’s not setting the bar particularly high.

Given how Johnson covered himself in glory while at the Foreign Office I think it's becoming clear that Gove performed a tremendous public duty by sabotaging his bid for the leadership in 2016. Accordingly there would be justice in him now being rewarded for it.

Big_G_NorthWales said:

I think this is clever politics by TM

Putting the WDA in front of the HOC gives the opportunity for the ERG, DUP and labour to defeat it heavily, thereby ending the deal and leaving on the 22nd May

There are many comments on what happens next but most of them ignore the fact that what happens next is the 12th April and the ERG and DUP dream of no deal

There has to be an agreement next week in the HOC that is actually douable, and has sufficient support to put in place the legislation to stop no deal. There is no point in saying labour want a GE and should support a second referendum as that decision would be out of time

The HOC needs to agree an extension to the 12th April that accepts we elect MEPs in May and has a proposition that the EU can agree to, including a referendum, as the EU will not permit this to continue

Today has seen many in the EU expressing horror at us being in their new Parliament and the demands for no deal by the EU are at the highest level so far

Next monday needs to see the elimination of the amendments until a majority view emerges and TM creates the political space to accept the verdict, as she cannot be sacked now she is going

Could TM final act be to agree to the deal with a confirmation referendum and then put in place her succession

Fantasy or possibility ?

If so, it will represent an enormous political cock-up on her part; she could have agreed the Deal with a confirmatory referendum back in December (and stayed on btw).

Black_Rook said:

Gallowgate said:

@Big_G_NorthWales and what happens if the public says ‘no’ to the deal in this ‘confirmatory referendum’? We’re back to square one in interpreting the result. Does it mean the country wants no deal, a different deal or remain?

Awful idea all round.

The assumption is that the EU will allow an extension for a referendum *IF* the proposition is Deal vs Remain. This gives the EU certainty, with two outcomes either of which they can accept, eliminating No Deal.

A referendum in which rejection puts us back to square one is a non-starter. The EU won't swallow it, and all of the MPs who are backing a referendum are doing it with the express intention of persuading the public to vote to stay in.

Indeed.

Hang on a mo. Why doesn't the graph above look anything like this one:



Ok one is next PM and one is next Tory Leader but BoJo was ahead of Govey yesterday.

"There's almost no chance of getting out of the backstop ever without the political declaration being attached."

Bridgen doesn't understand does he?

We will only go into transition with both the WA and PD signed and ratified by means of resolution. So no backstop without a PD.

Benpointer said:

Black_Rook said:

Gallowgate said:

@Big_G_NorthWales and what happens if the public says ‘no’ to the deal in this ‘confirmatory referendum’? We’re back to square one in interpreting the result. Does it mean the country wants no deal, a different deal or remain?

Awful idea all round.

The assumption is that the EU will allow an extension for a referendum *IF* the proposition is Deal vs Remain. This gives the EU certainty, with two outcomes either of which they can accept, eliminating No Deal.

A referendum in which rejection puts us back to square one is a non-starter. The EU won't swallow it, and all of the MPs who are backing a referendum are doing it with the express intention of persuading the public to vote to stay in.

Indeed.

+1

A further referendum is a painful choice not without potential downsides. MPs aren't going to vote for it unless the vote will resolve the matter, whichever way it goes, and with either answer being clearly implementable. Having one side of the question put us back in limbo is never going to happen.

JackW said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

I think this is clever politics by TM

Putting the WDA in front of the HOC gives the opportunity for the ERG, DUP and labour to defeat it heavily, thereby ending the deal and leaving on the 22nd May

There are many comments on what happens next but most of them ignore the fact that what happens next is the 12th April and the ERG and DUP dream of no deal

There has to be an agreement next week in the HOC that is actually douable, and has sufficient support to put in place the legislation to stop no deal. There is no point in saying labour want a GE and should support a second referendum as that decision would be out of time

The HOC needs to agree an extension to the 12th April that accepts we elect MEPs in May and has a proposition that the EU can agree to, including a referendum, as the EU will not permit this to continue

Today has seen many in the EU expressing horror at us being in their new Parliament and the demands for no deal by the EU are at the highest level so far

Next monday needs to see the elimination of the amendments until a majority view emerges and TM creates the political space to accept the verdict, as she cannot be sacked now she is going

Could TM final act be to agree to the deal with a confirmation referendum and then put in place her succession

Fantasy or possibility ?

You lost me after the first sentence ....

And the rest

Benpointer said:

Hang on a mo. Why doesn't the graph above look anything like this one:

Different markets, there's now a chance that Corbyn becomes next PM after a snap election.

This week two esteemed PBers closed out their big reds against Corbyn as next PM.

AmpfieldAndy said:

OblitusSumMe said:

AmpfieldAndy said:

Difficult to see a winner frankly. I can’t see Gove becoming party leader after he knifed Johnson in the back last time and given how he antagonised the teachers. Johnson has no obvious qualities beyond being a good journalist but he seems to be the members choice if he made it to the MPs short list. Hunt and Javid are all talk and no substance. Raab would have a good chance but only if Johnson doesnt stand.

Whoever wins needs to have a lot more charisma and campaigning skills than May, but that’s not setting the bar particularly high.

Given how Johnson covered himself in glory while at the Foreign Office I think it's becoming clear that Gove performed a tremendous public duty by sabotaging his bid for the leadership in 2016. Accordingly there would be justice in him now being rewarded for it.

No one like a turncoat or those who stab others in the back - no matter what Johnson’s failings. Gove has shown he can’t be trusted.

If I had to lend one of them some money I think I'd have more chance of seeing it again with Gove

AmpfieldAndy said:

Difficult to see a winner frankly. I can’t see Gove becoming party leader after he knifed Johnson in the back last time and given how he antagonised the teachers. Johnson has no obvious qualities beyond being a good journalist but he seems to be the members choice if he made it to the MPs short list. Hunt and Javid are all talk and no substance. Raab would have a good chance but only if Johnson doesnt stand.

Whoever wins needs to have a lot more charisma and campaigning skills than May, but that’s not setting the bar particularly high.

I fancy Hancock if May goes if the Tories stay in Government, Boris if the new leader is picked in opposition.

Remember if May's Deal passes tomorrow as a result of Labour MPs from Leave seats backing the Withdrawal Agreement to ensure Brexit but leaving the PD to be decided later then the DUP will still back a VONC and we will have a snap general election perhaps even with May leading the Tories.

If the Deal fails again No 10 is clear May will stay and perhaps call a snap general election to get a majority for her Deal anyway

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Stereotomy said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

I think this is clever politics by TM

Putting the WDA in front of the HOC gives the opportunity for the ERG, DUP and labour to defeat it heavily, thereby ending the deal and leaving on the 22nd May

There are many comments on what happens next but most of them ignore the fact that what happens next is the 12th April and the ERG and DUP dream of no deal

There has to be an agreement next week in the HOC that is actually douable, and has sufficient support to put in place the legislation to stop no deal. There is no point in saying labour want a GE and should support a second referendum as that decision would be out of time

The HOC needs to agree an extension to the 12th April that accepts we elect MEPs in May and has a proposition that the EU can agree to, including a referendum, as the EU will not permit this to continue

Today has seen many in the EU expressing horror at us being in their new Parliament and the demands for no deal by the EU are at the highest level so far

Next monday needs to see the elimination of the amendments until a majority view emerges and TM creates the political space to accept the verdict, as she cannot be sacked now she is going

Could TM final act be to agree to the deal with a confirmation referendum and then put in place her succession

Fantasy or possibility ?

I didn't follow that. You're saying she now secretly supports a confirmatory referendum and has a cunning plan to get one by having the WA defeated tomorrow?

I think she is making space to adopt the majority view of the HOC which might just be a confirmatory referendum. She has nothing to lose now

Legacy. As such she has everything to lose.

Stereotomy said:

AmpfieldAndy said:

Difficult to see a winner frankly. I can’t see Gove becoming party leader after he knifed Johnson in the back last time and given how he antagonised the teachers. Johnson has no obvious qualities beyond being a good journalist but he seems to be the members choice if he made it to the MPs short list. Hunt and Javid are all talk and no substance. Raab would have a good chance but only if Johnson doesnt stand.

Whoever wins needs to have a lot more charisma and campaigning skills than May, but that’s not setting the bar particularly high.

The teachers Gove antagonised ain't Conservative members.

The Tories have not won a majority of the teacher vote for decades and even in 2010 they got less support from teachers than nationally

AmpfieldAndy said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Gallowgate said:

AmpfieldAndy said:

Stereotomy said:

AmpfieldAndy said:

Difficult to see a winner frankly. I can’t see Gove becoming party leader after he knifed Johnson in the back last time and given how he antagonised the teachers. Johnson has no obvious qualities beyond being a good journalist but he seems to be the members choice if he made it to the MPs short list. Hunt and Javid are all talk and no substance. Raab would have a good chance but only if Johnson doesnt stand.

Whoever wins needs to have a lot more charisma and campaigning skills than May, but that’s not setting the bar particularly high.

The teachers Gove antagonised ain't Conservative members.

A lot of them were before he got the job, as were a lot of doctors before Hunt became Health Sec

Tories running out of supporters. Soon it’ll be just farmers and Tommy Robinson supporters.

Farmers are bricking it over No Deal, so not even farmers might be supporting the Tories.

Losing all their subsidies didn’t do NZ’s farmers any harm - but to scrap those means being a capitalist and supporting primacy of consumer interests and competition. Probably explains why Gov has promised to safeguard subsidies.

Pah the big farmers (i.e. landowners) will see their EU subsidies replaced by similar from any Conservative govt.

Whereas if Labour get in they might be wwishing we were still in the EU!

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Benpointer said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

I think this is clever politics by TM

Putting the WDA in front of the HOC gives the opportunity for the ERG, DUP and labour to defeat it heavily, thereby ending the deal and leaving on the 22nd May

There are many comments on what happens next but most of them ignore the fact that what happens next is the 12th April and the ERG and DUP dream of no deal

There has to be an agreement next week in the HOC that is actually douable, and has sufficient support to put in place the legislation to stop no deal. There is no point in saying labour want a GE and should support a second referendum as that decision would be out of time

The HOC needs to agree an extension to the 12th April that accepts we elect MEPs in May and has a proposition that the EU can agree to, including a referendum, as the EU will not permit this to continue

Today has seen many in the EU expressing horror at us being in their new Parliament and the demands for no deal by the EU are at the highest level so far

Next monday needs to see the elimination of the amendments until a majority view emerges and TM creates the political space to accept the verdict, as she cannot be sacked now she is going

Could TM final act be to agree to the deal with a confirmation referendum and then put in place her succession

Fantasy or possibility ?

If so, it will represent an enormous political cock-up on her part; she could have agreed the Deal with a confirmatory referendum back in December (and stayed on btw).

No I do not agree Ben. She did not have the space then.

The conservative party would have gone crackers

Yes, you might have a point. Mind you won't it go ballistic anyway?

Black_Rook said:

Gallowgate said:

@Big_G_NorthWales and what happens if the public says ‘no’ to the deal in this ‘confirmatory referendum’? We’re back to square one in interpreting the result. Does it mean the country wants no deal, a different deal or remain?

Awful idea all round.

The assumption is that the EU will allow an extension for a referendum *IF* the proposition is Deal vs Remain. This gives the EU certainty, with two outcomes either of which they can accept, eliminating No Deal.

A referendum in which rejection puts us back to square one is a non-starter. The EU won't swallow it, and all of the MPs who are backing a referendum are doing it with the express intention of persuading the public to vote to stay in.

IMV either (any) choice inn a referendum has to be passed by parliament (both houses) *before* it is held.

In other words, parliament passes both yes and no results, subject to the result of the referendum. Only then is the referendum held.

To add extra complexity, both results would also need to be agreed with the EU, so we know neither yes nor no campaign is selling unicorn flatulence to parliament and the public - as leave did last time.

This will almost certainly be a very loooonnnnnggggg and convoluted process, and is therefore sadly improbable. It also requires intelligence within the government and parliament as a whole, which makes it impossible.

TheWhiteRabbit said:

"There's almost no chance of getting out of the backstop ever without the political declaration being attached."

Bridgen doesn't understand does he?

We will only go into transition with both the WA and PD signed and ratified by means of resolution. So no backstop without a PD.

The intention seems to be to use the Bill itself to ratify both WA and PD. The Bill is still under wraps and rumour appears to be that when people see it they won't like it. What happens if waverers did vote through MV2.5 and then turn against the Bill isn't clear.