politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Viewcode on the chronicle of a bet foretold

AndyJS said:

isam said:

AndyJS said:

What a marvellous resource this page is.

https://www.livefrombrexit.com/petitions/241584

Any anomalies?

Birmingham Ladywood 64.4% Remain and only 9% signed

Central Devon is the highest Leave constituency (50.9% & 14%)
Bradford West is the lowest Remain (53.5% & 5%)

Irish, Scottish and Welsh Remain seats seem to be least interested

Remain seats with large ethnic minority populations, like Bradford West, Harrow East and Edmonton, have not been signing the petition with the enthusiasm one might have expected. Conversely, seats that narrowly voted Leave with very middle-class profiles, like Chichester, Wealden and Devon Central, have been signing it in surprisingly large numbers. The simple conclusion may be that middle-class people are a lot more likely to go to the trouble of signing a petition like this.

In Belfast South the petition has more signatures than the DUP MP got votes.

dixiedean said:

ydoethur said:

dixiedean said:

Philip_Thompson said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Paristonda said:

Has this been shared already on here?
Potential betting implications given she is currently favourite for next leader. It's a very awkward subject and I doubt there is much appetite in the lib dems to have domestic violence as a topic of debate in the same way that a debate over religion vs gay rights overtook Farrons tenure


https://twitter.com/LaylaMoran/status/1109528327453331456?s=09

You call that a scandal?

I remember when Lib Dem leadership candidates were exposed for [moderating] all over male prostitutes or ringing up gay chat lines.

I miss the good old days.

Physical violence v consensual chat lines. Which is worse?

Thought the issue with Simon Hughes was hypocrisy. He ran against Peter Tatchell with the slogan "The straight choice."

No he didn't - that slogan was coined by an independent candidate and former Labour member who ran against Tatchell specifically because he was gay.

In which case what was the problem?

Sorry, I may not have been clear - this other candidate, John O'Grady, ran because Tatchell was gay.

Benpointer said:

ydoethur said:

Foxy said:

ydoethur said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Ishmael_Z said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

I appear to have been blocked by David Lammy.

https://twitter.com/TSEofPB/status/1109900150858752000

Console yourself with the thought that he thinks radium was discovered by Marie Antoinette.

I don't think he will better his black smoke comment.

Did he get burned for that?

He is toast now...

But he can brush it all off.

Even so, he'll be on the rack soon.

Jammy bugger.

ydoethur said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Philip_Thompson said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Paristonda said:

Has this been shared already on here?
Potential betting implications given she is currently favourite for next leader. It's a very awkward subject and I doubt there is much appetite in the lib dems to have domestic violence as a topic of debate in the same way that a debate over religion vs gay rights overtook Farrons tenure


https://twitter.com/LaylaMoran/status/1109528327453331456?s=09

You call that a scandal?

I remember when Lib Dem leadership candidates were exposed for [moderating] all over male prostitutes or ringing up gay chat lines.

I miss the good old days.

Physical violence v consensual chat lines. Which is worse?

The police investigated it and said she did nothing wrong, her ex corroborated her events.

But you appear to know better.

I think Mr Eagles there is a difference between 'she did nothing wrong' and 'she faced no criminal charges.'

If the police accepted her version of events, and if her version of events is true, then by the standards set by the criminal law she did nothing wrong, A person may use such force as is objectively reasonable in the circumstances as she subjectively believes them to be. She says she apprehend the immediate use of unlawful violence against her, which if true means she herself was a victim of the the lowest form of common assault, and she therefore took the steps she felt were necessary in the circumstances to defend herself.

Now her version of events may be bullshit but the police didn’t think so and we have no reason to second guess them. She says he thought he might get violent, not an uncommon fear for a woman to have, more uncommon for men to have, and slapped him. The truth is that although the law needs to be applied equally to men and women the sad fact is that women DO feel more threatened than men in domestic relationships and are more likely to seek to defend themselves, so her story is not exactly beyond the realms of possibility. To say “would a man get a pass on this” is slightly simplistic and disingenuous.

Foxy said:

Benpointer said:

ydoethur said:

Foxy said:

ydoethur said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Ishmael_Z said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

I appear to have been blocked by David Lammy.

https://twitter.com/TSEofPB/status/1109900150858752000

Console yourself with the thought that he thinks radium was discovered by Marie Antoinette.

I don't think he will better his black smoke comment.

Did he get burned for that?

He is toast now...

But he can brush it all off.

Even so, he'll be on the rack soon.

Jammy bugger.

Your puns are damson good this evening.

I shall go and get some sleep. Have a good evening everyone.

AramintaMoonbeamQC said:

Benpointer said:

I appreciate it's expecting an unprecedented level of forward planning on behalf of HMG but do we have any view of next week's HoC timetable yet?

Monday: Loads of blethering, and some futile ideas floated. Everyone briefing against each other and leaking.

Tuesday - Friday: see Monday

Are they working Friday? What's the urgency now they have 2 more weeks?

https://twitter.com/bannerite/status/1109914425434103809

williamglenn said:

AndyJS said:

isam said:

AndyJS said:

What a marvellous resource this page is.

https://www.livefrombrexit.com/petitions/241584

Any anomalies?

Birmingham Ladywood 64.4% Remain and only 9% signed

Central Devon is the highest Leave constituency (50.9% & 14%)
Bradford West is the lowest Remain (53.5% & 5%)

Irish, Scottish and Welsh Remain seats seem to be least interested

Remain seats with large ethnic minority populations, like Bradford West, Harrow East and Edmonton, have not been signing the petition with the enthusiasm one might have expected. Conversely, seats that narrowly voted Leave with very middle-class profiles, like Chichester, Wealden and Devon Central, have been signing it in surprisingly large numbers. The simple conclusion may be that middle-class people are a lot more likely to go to the trouble of signing a petition like this.

In Belfast South the petition has more signatures than the DUP MP got votes.

Ditto Cities of London & Westminster for the Tories. Definitely one to watch at the next election.

Richard_Tyndall said:

<



I would certainly question the second half of that sentence.

We know that many countries in Europe are massively pro EU - and that even now the UK ranks towards the bottom of the list of pro-EU countries.

There are 1.5 million EU citizens living in London. How many of them were on the march yesterday? How many EU citizens living in the UK will have voted in that petition? If you or I were an EU citizen living here you can bet your bottom dollar we would have voted and if we were in London we would have marched.

That is not to deny that there is significant pro-EU support amongst the British electorate. We already know that at least 16 million people feel that way to some extent. But using either a petition or a march which are open to all as evidence of a change of opinion involving almost 34 million people is, I would suggest, tenuous in the extreme.

The EU citizens who I canvass seem mostly dispirited and wondering what will happen to them rather than in a mood to demonstrate - hard to get them even to vote.

You're obviously right that a big demo doesn't prove a shift in opinion. What I think is hard to deny is that there has been a big swing among Remainers from "oh, I suppose it's OK" to genuine Euro-enthusiasm. I've not seen so many EU flags in my lifetime.

The Brexiteers who I meet have in principle won, but they don't seem very happy - they envisaged a moment of glorious freedom, rather than a wrestling match staggering just over the line. They may feel differentlky when it's really happened?

NickPalmer said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

<



I would certainly question the second half of that sentence.

We know that many countries in Europe are massively pro EU - and that even now the UK ranks towards the bottom of the list of pro-EU countries.

There are 1.5 million EU citizens living in London. How many of them were on the march yesterday? How many EU citizens living in the UK will have voted in that petition? If you or I were an EU citizen living here you can bet your bottom dollar we would have voted and if we were in London we would have marched.

That is not to deny that there is significant pro-EU support amongst the British electorate. We already know that at least 16 million people feel that way to some extent. But using either a petition or a march which are open to all as evidence of a change of opinion involving almost 34 million people is, I would suggest, tenuous in the extreme.

The EU citizens who I canvass seem mostly dispirited and wondering what will happen to them rather than in a mood to demonstrate - hard to get them even to vote.

You're obviously right that a big demo doesn't prove a shift in opinion. What I think is hard to deny is that there has been a big swing among Remainers from "oh, I suppose it's OK" to genuine Euro-enthusiasm. I've not seen so many EU flags in my lifetime.

The Brexiteers who I meet have in principle won, but they don't seem very happy - they envisaged a moment of glorious freedom, rather than a wrestling match staggering just over the line. They may feel differentlky when it's really happened?

Leavers have done everything they can to alienate Remain voters. Many of them have turned to the EU in the absence of any other credible alternative.

At some point a new consensus will need to be forged, or at least a sulky armistice. Neither looks remotely in prospect nor even easy to map out. One half or the other of the population is going to be in insurrection for the foreseeable future.

NickPalmer said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

<



I would certainly question the second half of that sentence.

We know that many countries in Europe are massively pro EU - and that even now the UK ranks towards the bottom of the list of pro-EU countries.

There are 1.5 million EU citizens living in London. How many of them were on the march yesterday? How many EU citizens living in the UK will have voted in that petition? If you or I were an EU citizen living here you can bet your bottom dollar we would have voted and if we were in London we would have marched.

That is not to deny that there is significant pro-EU support amongst the British electorate. We already know that at least 16 million people feel that way to some extent. But using either a petition or a march which are open to all as evidence of a change of opinion involving almost 34 million people is, I would suggest, tenuous in the extreme.

The EU citizens who I canvass seem mostly dispirited and wondering what will happen to them rather than in a mood to demonstrate - hard to get them even to vote.

You're obviously right that a big demo doesn't prove a shift in opinion. What I think is hard to deny is that there has been a big swing among Remainers from "oh, I suppose it's OK" to genuine Euro-enthusiasm. I've not seen so many EU flags in my lifetime.

The Brexiteers who I meet have in principle won, but they don't seem very happy - they envisaged a moment of glorious freedom, rather than a wrestling match staggering just over the line. They may feel differentlky when it's really happened?

Nah, this is just the beginning of buyers remorse for Brexiteers.

Certainly in my part of the crowd pretty much everyone was British as far as I could tell. A decent slice were under 18 though.

Even if the petition had been signed nationally at the rate signed by the least enthusiastic constituency, the petition would have been signed by well over a million people. That’s pretty extraordinary.

NickPalmer said:

Paristonda said:

Has this been shared already on here?
Potential betting implications given she is currently favourite for next leader. It's a very awkward subject and I doubt there is much appetite in the lib dems to have domestic violence as a topic of debate in the same way that a debate over religion vs gay rights overtook Farrons tenure


https://twitter.com/LaylaMoran/status/1109528327453331456?s=09

Sounds distressing but not somthing to concern the public.

Nick, if a male MP had hit his partner would you say the same?

Tom Watson's seat is 9th from bottom on the list of signatures (using percentages not absolute numbers).

NickPalmer said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

<



I would certainly question the second half of that sentence.

We know that many countries in Europe are massively pro EU - and that even now the UK ranks towards the bottom of the list of pro-EU countries.

There are 1.5 million EU citizens living in London. How many of them were on the march yesterday? How many EU citizens living in the UK will have voted in that petition? If you or I were an EU citizen living here you can bet your bottom dollar we would have voted and if we were in London we would have marched.

That is not to deny that there is significant pro-EU support amongst the British electorate. We already know that at least 16 million people feel that way to some extent. But using either a petition or a march which are open to all as evidence of a change of opinion involving almost 34 million people is, I would suggest, tenuous in the extreme.

The EU citizens who I canvass seem mostly dispirited and wondering what will happen to them rather than in a mood to demonstrate - hard to get them even to vote.

You're obviously right that a big demo doesn't prove a shift in opinion. What I think is hard to deny is that there has been a big swing among Remainers from "oh, I suppose it's OK" to genuine Euro-enthusiasm. I've not seen so many EU flags in my lifetime.

The Brexiteers who I meet have in principle won, but they don't seem very happy - they envisaged a moment of glorious freedom, rather than a wrestling match staggering just over the line. They may feel differentlky when it's really happened?

The EU citizens I spoke to were happy that a million people were marching, but had no interest in doing so themselves.

hamiltonace said:

On the petition my guess is it will reach about 7 to 8 million. What is interesting is that the vast majority of the signatures will come from only a third of the country. More from Twickenham than all of Birmingham.

Not sure about that, it already seems to be losing momentum. May not reach 6 million.

Foxy said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Even if the petition had been signed nationally at the rate signed by the least enthusiastic constituency, the petition would have been signed by well over a million people. That’s pretty extraordinary.

The distribution of the signatures doesn't show any signs of systemic manipulation. The constituencies at the top are the ones with the most technically and politically engaged.

I haven’t seen anything to make me doubt the general picture. I have seen an awful lot of Leavers raging at the picture presented. They would do better to ask themselves why they have so comprehensively failed to forge a consensus for their policy. That, however, is a fence that they refuse to attempt to jump.

Foxy said:

NickPalmer said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

<



I would certainly question the second half of that sentence.

We know that many countries in Europe are massively pro EU - and that even now the UK ranks towards the bottom of the list of pro-EU countries.

There are 1.5 million EU citizens living in London. How many of them were on the march yesterday? How many EU citizens living in the UK will have voted in that petition? If you or I were an EU citizen living here you can bet your bottom dollar we would have voted and if we were in London we would have marched.

That is not to deny that there is significant pro-EU support amongst the British electorate. We already know that at least 16 million people feel that way to some extent. But using either a petition or a march which are open to all as evidence of a change of opinion involving almost 34 million people is, I would suggest, tenuous in the extreme.

The EU citizens who I canvass seem mostly dispirited and wondering what will happen to them rather than in a mood to demonstrate - hard to get them even to vote.

You're obviously right that a big demo doesn't prove a shift in opinion. What I think is hard to deny is that there has been a big swing among Remainers from "oh, I suppose it's OK" to genuine Euro-enthusiasm. I've not seen so many EU flags in my lifetime.

The Brexiteers who I meet have in principle won, but they don't seem very happy - they envisaged a moment of glorious freedom, rather than a wrestling match staggering just over the line. They may feel differentlky when it's really happened?

Nah, this is just the beginning of buyers remorse for Brexiteers.

Certainly in my part of the crowd pretty much everyone was British as far as I could tell. A decent slice were under 18 though.

The immigration team at my firm has seen a massive upswing in EU citizens applying for British nationality based on residency. Before Brexit there was no need. Brexit appears to have resulted in a terrific number of presumably Europhilic new voters.

DougSeal said:

Foxy said:

NickPalmer said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

<



I would certainly question the second half of that sentence.

We know that many countries in Europe are massively pro EU - and that even now the UK ranks towards the bottom of the list of pro-EU countries.

There are 1.5 million EU citizens living in London. How many of them were on the march yesterday? How many EU citizens living in the UK will have voted in that petition? If you or I were an EU citizen living here you can bet your bottom dollar we would have voted and if we were in London we would have marched.

That is not to deny that there is significant pro-EU support amongst the British electorate. We already know that at least 16 million people feel that way to some extent. But using either a petition or a march which are open to all as evidence of a change of opinion involving almost 34 million people is, I would suggest, tenuous in the extreme.

The EU citizens who I canvass seem mostly dispirited and wondering what will happen to them rather than in a mood to demonstrate - hard to get them even to vote.

You're obviously right that a big demo doesn't prove a shift in opinion. What I think is hard to deny is that there has been a big swing among Remainers from "oh, I suppose it's OK" to genuine Euro-enthusiasm. I've not seen so many EU flags in my lifetime.

The Brexiteers who I meet have in principle won, but they don't seem very happy - they envisaged a moment of glorious freedom, rather than a wrestling match staggering just over the line. They may feel differentlky when it's really happened?

Nah, this is just the beginning of buyers remorse for Brexiteers.

Certainly in my part of the crowd pretty much everyone was British as far as I could tell. A decent slice were under 18 though.

The immigration team at my firm has seen a massive upswing in EU citizens applying for British nationality based on residency. Before Brexit there was no need. Brexit appears to have resulted in a terrific number of presumably Europhilic new voters.

Interesting point. How long after applying can they vote?

AlastairMeeks said:

Foxy said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Even if the petition had been signed nationally at the rate signed by the least enthusiastic constituency, the petition would have been signed by well over a million people. That’s pretty extraordinary.

The distribution of the signatures doesn't show any signs of systemic manipulation. The constituencies at the top are the ones with the most technically and politically engaged.

I haven’t seen anything to make me doubt the general picture. I have seen an awful lot of Leavers raging at the picture presented. They would do better to ask themselves why they have so comprehensively failed to forge a consensus for their policy. That, however, is a fence that they refuse to attempt to jump.

The fundamental problem is that the only possible compromise is some variation on soft Brexit, however that is clearly inferior to current membership terms.

The WA is super soft and sets the tone and foundations for a final deal that looks much the same. All the same driving factors that have written the WA will still apply in 21 months times, whether Irish border or chlorinated chicken.

AndyJS said:

Tom Watson's seat is 9th from bottom on the list of signatures (using percentages not absolute numbers).

It’s West Brom Andy, we’m proper leave 🙂

AlastairMeeks said:

Foxy said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Even if the petition had been signed nationally at the rate signed by the least enthusiastic constituency, the petition would have been signed by well over a million people. That’s pretty extraordinary.

The distribution of the signatures doesn't show any signs of systemic manipulation. The constituencies at the top are the ones with the most technically and politically engaged.

I haven’t seen anything to make me doubt the general picture. I have seen an awful lot of Leavers raging at the picture presented. They would do better to ask themselves why they have so comprehensively failed to forge a consensus for their policy. That, however, is a fence that they refuse to attempt to jump.

Indeed, To think we would be leaving in 5 days time if the ERG and DUP had not thrown their proverbial toys out of the pram.

DougSeal said:

TudorRose said:

Genuine question; if the date on the article 50 legislation can be changed by SI, what else can be changed in this way?

I’m not sure how general your question is but in my view it is a huge issue. The EU Withdrawal Act gives Ministers broad delegated powers under SI’s to amend and repeal primary legislation. The argument is that there is so much to unpick after 45 years that there is no time to repeal and amend everything through primary legislation. It may not be practical but I would like these Henry VIII powers to be abolished or at least severely limited in all cases. It is not just this Act but the huge scope of EU law that has built up over 45 years makes it the worst culprit. Brexit has resulted in this unholy power grab by the Executive and I think some of what we are seeing is a reaction by the Legislature.

It is one of the main reasons why, although I think Brexit was possible, it was not possible in the time given. The appropriate legislation should have been proposed and passed, with suspended implementation pending the outcome, and a set of proposals formulated and published, before A50 was triggered. It was at least a 5 and maybe 10 year process end to end IMHO but Brexiteers were not prepared to wait that long.

I should point out that there were plenty of Leave supporters on here who made very clear their opposition to the Henry VIII powers at the time they were announced. Along with the refusal to automatically devolved powers to the relevant Parliaments or Assemblies this was one of a number of really stupid moves that hardened opposition to the overall Brexit plan.

isam said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Foxy said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Even if the petition had been signed nationally at the rate signed by the least enthusiastic constituency, the petition would have been signed by well over a million people. That’s pretty extraordinary.

The distribution of the signatures doesn't show any signs of systemic manipulation. The constituencies at the top are the ones with the most technically and politically engaged.

I haven’t seen anything to make me doubt the general picture. I have seen an awful lot of Leavers raging at the picture presented. They would do better to ask themselves why they have so comprehensively failed to forge a consensus for their policy. That, however, is a fence that they refuse to attempt to jump.

It’s hardly a one sided phenomenon. When the status quo was EU membership and no referendum was in the offing, UKIP were winning by elections, coming 2nd in places they used to poll 2%, winning the Euros, polling in the mid teens for the GE, & at every point being criticised for not doing well enough & dismissed by the same people who are keen to make the numbers on the March & petition as a sign of something meaningful.

True. But at that point there was a settled policy. Now a new policy must be formed. And the winners have proven quite clueless about what they want and determined to exclude the losers from any discussions to sort the mess out. Then they wonder why vast numbers seek to revoke the decision and march for a fresh referendum.

LOL!


https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1109918388133023744

Richard_Tyndall said:

DougSeal said:

TudorRose said:

Genuine question; if the date on the article 50 legislation can be changed by SI, what else can be changed in this way?

I’m not sure how general your question is but in my view it is a huge issue. The EU Withdrawal Act gives Ministers broad delegated powers under SI’s to amend and repeal primary legislation. The argument is that there is so much to unpick after 45 years that there is no time to repeal and amend everything through primary legislation. It may not be practical but I would like these Henry VIII powers to be abolished or at least severely limited in all cases. It is not just this Act but the huge scope of EU law that has built up over 45 years makes it the worst culprit. Brexit has resulted in this unholy power grab by the Executive and I think some of what we are seeing is a reaction by the Legislature.

It is one of the main reasons why, although I think Brexit was possible, it was not possible in the time given. The appropriate legislation should have been proposed and passed, with suspended implementation pending the outcome, and a set of proposals formulated and published, before A50 was triggered. It was at least a 5 and maybe 10 year process end to end IMHO but Brexiteers were not prepared to wait that long.

I should point out that there were plenty of Leave supporters on here who made very clear their opposition to the Henry VIII powers at the time they were announced. Along with the refusal to automatically devolved powers to the relevant Parliaments or Assemblies this was one of a number of really stupid moves that hardened opposition to the overall Brexit plan.

Absolutely. If the more thoughtful leavers were in charge and there was not this unholy rush then Brexit was certainly doable. I might even have got on board a decent planned exit. But the approach taken makes the Fyre Festival look like a triumph of logistical planning.

isam said:

AlastairMeeks said:

isam said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Foxy said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Even if the petition had been signed nationally at the rate signed by the least enthusiastic constituency, the petition would have been signed by well over a million people. That’s pretty extraordinary.

The distribution of the signatures doesn't show any signs of systemic manipulation. The constituencies at the top are the ones with the most technically and politically engaged.

I haven’t seen anything to make me doubt the general picture. I have seen an awful lot of Leavers raging at the picture presented. They would do better to ask themselves why they have so comprehensively failed to forge a consensus for their policy. That, however, is a fence that they refuse to attempt to jump.

It’s hardly a one sided phenomenon. When the status quo was EU membership and no referendum was in the offing, UKIP were winning by elections, coming 2nd in places they used to poll 2%, winning the Euros, polling in the mid teens for the GE, & at every point being criticised for not doing well enough & dismissed by the same people who are keen to make the numbers on the March & petition as a sign of something meaningful.

True. But at that point there was a settled policy. Now a new policy must be formed. And the winners have proven quite clueless about what they want and determined to exclude the losers from any discussions to sort the mess out. Then they wonder why vast numbers seek to revoke the decision and march for a fresh referendum.

I don’t wonder why, I accept those marchers and signees want Brexit stopped. But I don’t see what it matters. If every Labour voter decided to march to say how much they wish Labour had won the last election, what would that tell us?

It would tell us that there was a rage among Labour voters that was completely unprecedented. Why have Leavers failed to get Remainers to the point of sullen acquiescence?

AlastairMeeks said:

isam said:

AlastairMeeks said:

isam said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Foxy said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Even if the petition had been signed nationally at the rate signed by the least enthusiastic constituency, the petition would have been signed by well over a million people. That’s pretty extraordinary.

The distribution of the signatures doesn't show any signs of systemic manipulation. The constituencies at the top are the ones with the most technically and politically engaged.

I haven’t seen anything to make me doubt the general picture. I have seen an awful lot of Leavers raging at the picture presented. They would do better to ask themselves why they have so comprehensively failed to forge a consensus for their policy. That, however, is a fence that they refuse to attempt to jump.

It’s hardly a one sided phenomenon. When the status quo was EU membership and no referendum was in the offing, UKIP were winning by elections, coming 2nd in places they used to poll 2%, winning the Euros, polling in the mid teens for the GE, & at every point being criticised for not doing well enough & dismissed by the same people who are keen to make the numbers on the March & petition as a sign of something meaningful.

True. But at that point there was a settled policy. Now a new policy must be formed. And the winners have proven quite clueless about what they want and determined to exclude the losers from any discussions to sort the mess out. Then they wonder why vast numbers seek to revoke the decision and march for a fresh referendum.

I don’t wonder why, I accept those marchers and signees want Brexit stopped. But I don’t see what it matters. If every Labour voter decided to march to say how much they wish Labour had won the last election, what would that tell us?

It would tell us that there was a rage among Labour voters that was completely unprecedented. Why have Leavers failed to get Remainers to the point of sullen acquiescence?

It would tell us TIG weren't that popular!

Because it's three years since the vote and we haven't left. If you fancy someone who is engaged, it's never really over until they get married, and the longer the engagement, the more hope you get.

Still doesn't mean they fancy you though!

williamglenn said:

isam said:

AlastairMeeks said:

isam said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Foxy said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Even if the petition had been signed nationally at the rate signed by the least enthusiastic constituency, the petition would have been signed by well over a million people. That’s pretty extraordinary.

The distribution of the signatures doesn't show any signs of systemic manipulation. The constituencies at the top are the ones with the most technically and politically engaged.

I haven’t seen anything to make me doubt the general picture. I have seen an awful lot of Leavers raging at the picture presented. They would do better to ask themselves why they have so comprehensively failed to forge a consensus for their policy. That, however, is a fence that they refuse to attempt to jump.

It’s hardly a one sided phenomenon. When the status quo was EU membership and no referendum was in the offing, UKIP were winning by elections, coming 2nd in places they used to poll 2%, winning the Euros, polling in the mid teens for the GE, & at every point being criticised for not doing well enough & dismissed by the same people who are keen to make the numbers on the March & petition as a sign of something meaningful.

True. But at that point there was a settled policy. Now a new policy must be formed. And the winners have proven quite clueless about what they want and determined to exclude the losers from any discussions to sort the mess out. Then they wonder why vast numbers seek to revoke the decision and march for a fresh referendum.

I don’t wonder why, I accept those marchers and signees want Brexit stopped. But I don’t see what it matters. If every Labour voter decided to march to say how much they wish Labour had won the last election, what would that tell us?

It matters because for "Brexit" to work, it needs to become a sustainable national consensus, not something imposed in a couple of years never to be questioned again.

Why? We were in the EU for years, and it turned out there was no consensus for it. I would doubt there is a consensus for mass immigration or soft sentencing for criminals but they have been government policy for decades

https://twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1109931995117821952

FF43 said:

Rare excellent news for Donald Trump tonight.

The general economic situation is good for him.

TheWhiteRabbit said:

ydoethur said:

dixiedean said:

Philip_Thompson said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Paristonda said:

Has this been shared already on here?
Potential


https://twitter.com/LaylaMoran/status/1109528327453331456?s=09

You call that a scandal?

I remember when Lib Dem leadership candidates were exposed for [moderating] all over male prostitutes or ringing up gay chat lines.

I miss the good old days.

Physical violence v consensual chat lines. Which is worse?

Thought the issue with Simon Hughes was hypocrisy. He ran against Peter Tatchell with the slogan "The straight choice."

No he didn't - that slogan was coined by an independent candidate and former Labour member who ran against Tatchell specifically because he was gay.

I'm afraid Hughes ran it:

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-374935/Hughes-apologises-anti-gay-campaign.html

TheWhiteRabbit said:

ydoethur said:

dixiedean said:

Philip_Thompson said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Paristonda said:

Has this been shared already on here?
Potential betting implications given she is currently favourite for next leader. It's a very awkward subject and I doubt there is much appetite in the lib dems to have domestic violence as a topic of debate in the same way that a debate over religion vs gay rights overtook Farrons tenure


https://twitter.com/LaylaMoran/status/1109528327453331456?s=09

You call that a scandal?

I remember when Lib Dem leadership candidates were exposed for [moderating] all over male prostitutes or ringing up gay chat lines.

I miss the good old days.

Physical violence v consensual chat lines. Which is worse?

Thought the issue with Simon Hughes was hypocrisy. He ran against Peter Tatchell with the slogan "The straight choice."

No he didn't - that slogan was coined by an independent candidate and former Labour member who ran against Tatchell specifically because he was gay.

I'm afraid Hughes ran it:

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-374935/Hughes-apologises-anti-gay-campaign.html

I remember the Bermondsey by election, and while there was certainly a homophobic element to it, Tatchell was also seen as a "looney leftie" at the height of Labour's post 1979 meltdown.

Much of thT "looney leftism" is now government, and Tory party policy of course. Not so much looney, as a vanguard for the future.

Benpointer said:

Ishmael_Z said:

NickPalmer said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

<



I would certainly question the second half of that sentence.

We know that many countries in Europe are massively pro EU - and that even now the UK ranks towards the bottom of the list of pro-EU countries.

There are 1.5 million EU citizens living in London. How many of them were on the march yesterday? How many EU citizens living in the UK will have voted in that petition? If you or I were an EU citizen living here you can bet your bottom dollar we would have voted and if we were in London we would have marched.

That is not to deny that there is significant pro-EU support amongst the British electorate. We already know that at least 16 million people feel that way to some extent. But using either a petition or a march which are open to all as evidence of a change of opinion involving almost 34 million people is, I would suggest, tenuous in the extreme.

The EU citizens who I canvass seem mostly dispirited and wondering what will happen to them rather than in a mood to demonstrate - hard to get them even to vote.

You're obviously right that a big demo doesn't prove a shift in opinion. What I think is hard to deny is that there has been a big swing among Remainers from "oh, I suppose it's OK" to genuine Euro-enthusiasm. I've not seen so many EU flags in my lifetime.

The Brexiteers who I meet have in principle won, but they don't seem very happy - they envisaged a moment of glorious freedom, rather than a wrestling match staggering just over the line. They may feel differentlky when it's really happened?

In my case, a rather more downbeat shift from "oh, I suppose it's OK" to "it's no longer bloody OK." I would not have signed that petition at any time in 2016, 17 or 18 but leave have had more than a reasonable time to shit, and must now get off the pot. And if they complain that this defecation business is not as easy as it looks, they should have thought of that a bit sooner.

Nicely put

Brexit seems to be truly going down the pan - but then some of its more extreme proponents are completely round the bend.

A blame the cistern.

Is Farage's Long March still going btw? Genuine question, I have been away for the past fortnight.

algarkirk said:

AlastairMeeks said:

isam said:

AlastairMeeks said:

isam said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Foxy said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Even if the petition had been signed nationally at the rate signed by the least enthusiastic constituency, the petition would have been signed by well over a million people. That’s pretty extraordinary.

The distribution of the signatures doesn't show any signs of systemic manipulation. The constituencies at the top are the ones with the most technically and politically engaged.

I haven’t seen anything to make me doubt the general picture. I have seen an awful lot of Leavers raging at the picture presented. They would do better to ask themselves why they have so comprehensively failed to forge a consensus for their policy. That, however, is a fence that they refuse to attempt to jump.

It’s hardly a one sided phenomenon. When the status quo was EU membership and no referendum was in the offing, UKIP were winning by elections, coming 2nd in places they used to poll 2%, winning the Euros, polling in the mid teens for the GE, & at every point being criticised for not doing well enough & dismissed by the same people who are keen to make the numbers on the March & petition as a sign of something meaningful.

True. But at that point there was a settled policy. Now a new policy must be formed. And the winners have proven quite clueless about what they want and determined to exclude the losers from any discussions to sort the mess out. Then they wonder why vast numbers seek to revoke the decision and march for a fresh referendum.

I don’t wonder why, I accept those marchers and signees want Brexit stopped. But I don’t see what it matters. If every Labour voter decided to march to say how much they wish Labour had won the last election, what would that tell us?

It would tell us that there was a rage among Labour voters that was completely unprecedented. Why have Leavers failed to get Remainers to the point of sullen acquiescence?

Because a mostly remainer parliament hasn't run a very brilliant process; because remain is intrinsically a fairly single view (ie continuity) while leaving is intrinsically by its nature open to alternatives. Government and Parliament opted to be handed the job of handling a 'Leave' vote if it arose and has lacked the sort of outstanding leadership needed for this tough task.

Remarkable how it is never ever, even slightly, the fault of the people who actually advocated the sodding idea in the first place.

isam said:

williamglenn said:

isam said:

AlastairMeeks said:

isam said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Foxy said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Even if the petition had been signed nationally at the rate signed by the least enthusiastic constituency, the petition would have been signed by well over a million people. That’s pretty extraordinary.

The distribution of the signatures doesn't show any signs of systemic manipulation. The constituencies at the top are the ones with the most technically and politically engaged.

I haven’t seen anything to make me doubt the general picture. I have seen an awful lot of Leavers raging at the picture presented. They would do better to ask themselves why they have so comprehensively failed to forge a consensus for their policy. That, however, is a fence that they refuse to attempt to jump.

It’s hardly a one sided phenomenon. When the status quo was EU membership and no referendum was in the offing, UKIP were winning by elections, coming 2nd in places they used to poll 2%, winning the Euros, polling in the mid teens for the GE, & at every point being criticised for not doing well enough & dismissed by the same people who are keen to make the numbers on the March & petition as a sign of something meaningful.

True. But at that point there was a settled policy. Now a new policy must be formed. And the winners have proven quite clueless about what they want and determined to exclude the losers from any discussions to sort the mess out. Then they wonder why vast numbers seek to revoke the decision and march for a fresh referendum.

I don’t wonder why, I accept those marchers and signees want Brexit stopped. But I don’t see what it matters. If every Labour voter decided to march to say how much they wish Labour had won the last election, what would that tell us?

It matters because for "Brexit" to work, it needs to become a sustainable national consensus, not something imposed in a couple of years never to be questioned again.

Why? We were in the EU for years, and it turned out there was no consensus for it. I would doubt there is a consensus for mass immigration or soft sentencing for criminals but they have been government policy for decades

Because as you can see, if you don't build that consensus, you end up with a million politically-engaged people marching through London and dedicating themselves to building a mass movement to overturn your grisly project.

Wait, what?

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-6845121/Justice-Department-says-Mueller-report-does-not-exonerate-President-Trump.html

AlastairMeeks said:

initforthemoney said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Leavers have done everything they can to alienate Remain voters.

That's not quite true. I don't shit on the carpet at work when someone makes a comment which idly assumes we're all remainers. Nor do I punch them or threaten them. In fact I don't even dare tell them I voted leave.

Try harder then. You can’t be sure that routinely labelling them quislings and traitors will alienate them enough. Shitting on the carpet might be the necessary final step.

Unlike you I don't feel the need to stoop to spreading shit and alienating friends.

AlastairMeeks said:

algarkirk said:

AlastairMeeks said:

isam said:

AlastairMeeks said:

isam said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Foxy said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Even if the petition had been signed nationally at the rate signed by the least enthusiastic constituency, the petition would have been signed by well over a million people. That’s pretty extraordinary.

The distribution of the signatures doesn't show any signs of systemic manipulation. The constituencies at the top are the ones with the most technically and politically engaged.

I haven’t seen anything to make me doubt the general picture. I have seen an awful lot of Leavers raging at the picture presented. They would do better to ask themselves why they have so comprehensively failed to forge a consensus for their policy. That, however, is a fence that they refuse to attempt to jump.

It’s hardly a one sided phenomenon. When the status quo was EU membership and no referendum was in the offing, UKIP were winning by elections, coming 2nd in places they used to poll 2%, winning the Euros, polling in the mid teens for the GE, & at every point being criticised for not doing well enough & dismissed by the same people who are keen to make the numbers on the March & petition as a sign of something meaningful.

True. But at that point there was a settled policy. Now a new policy must be formed. And the winners have proven quite clueless about what they want and determined to exclude the losers from any discussions to sort the mess out. Then they wonder why vast numbers seek to revoke the decision and march for a fresh referendum.

I don’t wonder why, I accept those marchers and signees want Brexit stopped. But I don’t see what it matters. If every Labour voter decided to march to say how much they wish Labour had won the last election, what would that tell us?

It would tell us that there was a rage among Labour voters that was completely unprecedented. Why have Leavers failed to get Remainers to the point of sullen acquiescence?

Because a mostly remainer parliament hasn't run a very brilliant process; because remain is intrinsically a fairly single view (ie continuity) while leaving is intrinsically by its nature open to alternatives. Government and Parliament opted to be handed the job of handling a 'Leave' vote if it arose and has lacked the sort of outstanding leadership needed for this tough task.

Remarkable how it is never ever, even slightly, the fault of the people who actually advocated the sodding idea in the first place.

Not quite right. Prominent leavers are amongst the most culpable.

Benpointer said:

Is Farage's Long March still going btw? Genuine question, I have been away for the past fortnight.

Yeah, they are in Cropston tonight, setting off round the Leicester ring road through heavily Hindu Thurmaston, then off on ramble past Scraptoft to Oakham on country lanes. The White House at Scraptoft for lunch I expect, it is a 'spoons.

https://twitter.com/foxinsoxuk/status/1109861291722719235?s=19

Charles said:

DougSeal said:

Charles said:

NickPalmer said:

Paristonda said:

Has this been shared already on here?
Potential betting implications given she is currently favourite for next leader. It's a very awkward subject and I doubt there is much appetite in the lib dems to have domestic violence as a topic of debate in the same way that a debate over religion vs gay rights overtook Farrons tenure


https://twitter.com/LaylaMoran/status/1109528327453331456?s=09

Sounds distressing but not somthing to concern the public.

Nick, if a male MP had hit his partner would you say the same?

Men and women are equal but they are not exactly the same. As I point out below she felt threatened, which is sadly commonplace for women as opposed to men, and she claims (and the police believed her) that she defended herself. If a male MP had done this the reaction would indeed be different, because the lived experiences of men and women are different. In a perfect world that would not be the case but this is not that world.

She said she felt threatened

I tend to believe that most politicians will say whatever gets them out of trouble

In any event it demonstrates a lack of self control

The police disagree with you. If you feel threatened then you can act in many ways. In the circumstances a slap may have been remarkably self controlled. Women have been acquitted of murder in similar circumstances- quite rightly.

isam said:

AlastairMeeks said:

isam said:

AlastairMeeks said:

isam said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Foxy said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Even if the petition had been signed nationally at the rate signed by the least enthusiastic constituency, the petition would have been signed by well over a million people. That’s pretty extraordinary.

The distribution of the signatures doesn't show any signs of systemic manipulation. The constituencies at the top are the ones with the most technically and politically engaged.

I haven’t seen anything to make me doubt the general picture. I have seen an awful lot of Leavers raging at the picture presented. They would do better to ask themselves why they have so comprehensively failed to forge a consensus for their policy. That, however, is a fence that they refuse to attempt to jump.

It’s hardly a one sided phenomenon. When the status quo was EU membership and no referendum was in the offing, UKIP were winning by elections, coming 2nd in places they used to poll 2%, winning the Euros, polling in the mid teens for the GE, & at every point being criticised for not doing well enough & dismissed by the same people who are keen to make the numbers on the March & petition as a sign of something meaningful.

True. But at that point there was a settled policy. Now a new policy must be formed. And the winners have proven quite clueless about what they want and determined to exclude the losers from any discussions to sort the mess out. Then they wonder why vast numbers seek to revoke the decision and march for a fresh referendum.

I don’t wonder why, I accept those marchers and signees want Brexit stopped. But I don’t see what it matters. If every Labour voter decided to march to say how much they wish Labour had won the last election, what would that tell us?

It would tell us that there was a rage among Labour voters that was completely unprecedented. Why have Leavers failed to get Remainers to the point of sullen acquiescence?

It would tell us TIG weren't that popular!

Because it's three years since the vote and we haven't left. If you fancy someone who is engaged, it's never really over until they get married, and the longer the engagement, the more hope you get.

Still doesn't mean they fancy you though!

Speaking from experience?

williamglenn said:

Boris Johnson: "Theresa May is a chicken who's bottled Brexit"

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/03/24/theresa-may-chicken-bottled-brexit-way-forward-come-eu-now/

Cometh the hour, cometh the man!

It will be interesting to see if all the publicity for revoke moves the polls

If we could remain without tearing the country apart I would be happy but I do not think either the conservative or labour parties are going to allow the conditions to remain, ie a referendum with the UK taking part in the EU elections from 12th April

I do have a huge desire to see our country healed one way or another, but I fear it is a vain hope

AlastairMeeks said:

initforthemoney said:

AlastairMeeks said:

initforthemoney said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Leavers have done everything they can to alienate Remain voters.

That's not quite true. I don't shit on the carpet at work when someone makes a comment which idly assumes we're all remainers. Nor do I punch them or threaten them. In fact I don't even dare tell them I voted leave.

Try harder then. You can’t be sure that routinely labelling them quislings and traitors will alienate them enough. Shitting on the carpet might be the necessary final step.

Unlike you I don't feel the need to stoop to spreading shit and alienating friends.

Talk to me about your bridge-building with your Remainer chums. Have you ruffled their hair as you call them saboteurs? Do you give them fancy biscuits as you label them enemies of the people?

And yet still they don’t come round. How inflexible of them.

See the last sentence of my first post above and ask yourself who is being more measured and reasonable here, the leave voter or the remain voter.

TheScreamingEagles said:

williamglenn said:

Boris Johnson: "Theresa May is a chicken who's bottled Brexit"

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/03/24/theresa-may-chicken-bottled-brexit-way-forward-come-eu-now/

Is that the same Boris the Chicken that bottled the 2016 Tory leadership election

Whilst I don’t in general support the idea that politicians should be barred from paid outside interests, it might be worth it just for the prospect of getting rid of Johnson’s Telegraph column. How come it is not possible to censure him on some sort of “bringing the party into disrepute charge”? The man should be locked up.

Charles said:

isam said:

AlastairMeeks said:

isam said:

AlastairMeeks said:

isam said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Foxy said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Even if the petition had been signed nationally at the rate signed by the least enthusiastic constituency, the petition would have been signed by well over a million people. That’s pretty extraordinary.

The distribution of the signatures doesn't show any signs of systemic manipulation. The constituencies at the top are the ones with the most technically and politically engaged.

I haven’t seen anything to make me doubt the general picture. I have seen an awful lot of Leavers raging at the picture presented. They would do better to ask themselves why they have so comprehensively failed to forge a consensus for their policy. That, however, is a fence that they refuse to attempt to jump.

It’s hardly a one sided phenomenon. When the status quo was EU membership and no referendum was in the offing, UKIP were winning by elections, coming 2nd in places they used to poll 2%, winning the Euros, polling in the mid teens for the GE, & at every point being criticised for not doing well enough & dismissed by the same people who are keen to make the numbers on the March & petition as a sign of something meaningful.

True. But at that point there was a settled policy. Now a new policy must be formed. And the winners have proven quite clueless about what they want and determined to exclude the losers from any discussions to sort the mess out. Then they wonder why vast numbers seek to revoke the decision and march for a fresh referendum.

I don’t wonder why, I accept those marchers and signees want Brexit stopped. But I don’t see what it matters. If every Labour voter decided to march to say how much they wish Labour had won the last election, what would that tell us?

It would tell us that there was a rage among Labour voters that was completely unprecedented. Why have Leavers failed to get Remainers to the point of sullen acquiescence?

It would tell us TIG weren't that popular!

Because it's three years since the vote and we haven't left. If you fancy someone who is engaged, it's never really over until they get married, and the longer the engagement, the more hope you get.

Still doesn't mean they fancy you though!

Speaking from experience?

Artistic license!

williamglenn said:

isam said:

williamglenn said:

isam said:

AlastairMeeks said:

isam said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Foxy said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Even if the petition had been signed nationally at the rate signed by the least enthusiastic constituency, the petition would have been signed by well over a million people. That’s pretty extraordinary.

The distribution of the signatures doesn't show any signs of systemic manipulation. The constituencies at the top are the ones with the most technically and politically engaged.

I haven’t seen anything to make me doubt the general picture. I have seen an awful lot of Leavers raging at the picture presented. They would do better to ask themselves why they have so comprehensively failed to forge a consensus for their policy. That, however, is a fence that they refuse to attempt to jump.

It’s hardly a one sided phenomenon. When the status quo was EU membership and no referendum was in the offing, UKIP were winning by elections, coming 2nd in places they used to poll 2%, winning the Euros, polling in the mid teens for the GE, & at every point being criticised for not doing well enough & dismissed by the same people who are keen to make the numbers on the March & petition as a sign of something meaningful.

True. But at that point there was a settled policy. Now a new policy must be formed. And the winners have proven quite clueless about what they want and determined to exclude the losers from any discussions to sort the mess out. Then they wonder why vast numbers seek to revoke the decision and march for a fresh referendum.

I don’t wonder why, I accept those marchers and signees want Brexit stopped. But I don’t see what it matters. If every Labour voter decided to march to say how much they wish Labour had won the last election, what would that tell us?

It matters because for "Brexit" to work, it needs to become a sustainable national consensus, not something imposed in a couple of years never to be questioned again.

Why? We were in the EU for years, and it turned out there was no consensus for it. I would doubt there is a consensus for mass immigration or soft sentencing for criminals but they have been government policy for decades

Because as you can see, if you don't build that consensus, you end up with a million politically-engaged people marching through London and dedicating themselves to building a mass movement to overturn your grisly project.

As opposed to the 17.4 million people who took the first opportunity available to overturn your grisly little EU project?

TheScreamingEagles said:

Benpointer said:

Is Farage's Long March still going btw? Genuine question, I have been away for the past fortnight.

Easiest march in history.

Also is it really Farage's Long March considering he's chickened out of most it ?

According to my Futurescope, the official History of the Glorious Long March being taught to all schoolchildren in Little Great Britain in 2040 says Chairman Nige led the full 100,000 throng along the entire 5,600 miles.