politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Matthew Shadsy of Ladbrokes on the WH2020 betting phenomenon o
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Matthew Shadsy of Ladbrokes on the WH2020 betting phenomenon of Andrew Yang
The 2020 US Presidential Market is gathering steam right now with most of the top-tier Democratic possibles having announced their candidature. Just waiting on Joe Biden who has recently become favourite for the nomination at Ladbrokes. No doubt his price will drop a little further if and when he announces, but the bigger impact on the overall market would be if he says no.
Comments
-
Goodness, could this be.....?0
-
First!Wulfrun_Phil said:Goodness, could this be.....?
0 -
Thanks Shadsy.
Thanks to Mr Meeks for mentioning Yang the other day.0 -
With apologies FPT:
There will be substantial food price rises whether we Brexit or not. Several reasons: the entire industry has largely tied itself in knots trying to second guess events. Vast amounts of cash is tied up in stored stock, ingredients and packaging all stockpiled as a hedge against disruption. All that costs money. The massive change to ordering patterns has genuinely loaded costs onto producers who have had to work flat out to fulfill enhanced orders.Alanbrooke said:it doesnt seem to have struck JS and ASDA that screaming about price increases post Brexit while simultaneously claiming there will be price decreases in the post Brexit world may be somewhat inconsistent.
Likewise if both supermarkets claim they will be stretched to maintain their supply chains next month why on earth would we want to add the turmoil of a supply chain reorganisation in to the mix.
But then Greg Clark is easily duped.
Even if Brexit is significantly delayed next week costs have been incurred (albeit not as big an increase as we'd see if we crash out). We've also seen cost loading and cash flow strains on businesses not resilient enough to cope (and yes, I count the likes of Asda and JS in this as they are not remotely profitable enough for their stock exchange overlords).
So price rises are inevitable. Brexit has cost the industry a lot and we haven't left yet. And for the few lucky sods not directly hit by costs? They'll go for price anyway as its a free hit if everyone else is doing so.0 -
Go Pete Bettigieg! Good to see Shadys following my tip of two weeks ago!!!
0 -
I'm on Mayor Pete at 270.0
-
Yang's problem is although he identifies a genuine issue coming down the tracks, his solutions are totally unrealistic. UBI is the most "sensible" of them and that would cost trillions and require a giant shake-up. Once you get past that, he policies start to get real nutty, real quickly.
He has been touring all the "intellectual dark web" podcasts, JRE, Sam Harris, Freakonomics, and he always starts off well, sounds plausible, but after 30mins it all goes downhill.
I imagine if he ever gains any real traction, the inner machine of the DNC will rip him apart in favour of their chosen candidates.0 -
0
-
Have you seen the Paddy Power Cantona BrexitBunker ad?TheScreamingEagles said:Thanks Shadsy.
Thanks to Mr Meeks for mentioning Yang the other day.
And what do you think of your anti-Brexit, Irish and French allies saying that the bunker will keep you "as happy as David Cameron with a pig"?
0 -
As of a couple of weeks ago a grain merchant friend of mine said that no vessels of wheat had been traded for post March 29th delivery. Push the supposed exit date back and I can't see how things will work out to say nothing of carry costs.RochdalePioneers said:With apologies FPT:
There will be substantial food price rises whether we Brexit or not. Several reasons: the entire industry has largely tied itself in knots trying to second guess events. Vast amounts of cash is tied up in stored stock, ingredients and packaging all stockpiled as a hedge against disruption. All that costs money. The massive change to ordering patterns has genuinely loaded costs onto producers who have had to work flat out to fulfill enhanced orders.Alanbrooke said:it doesnt seem to have struck JS and ASDA that screaming about price increases post Brexit while simultaneously claiming there will be price decreases in the post Brexit world may be somewhat inconsistent.
Likewise if both supermarkets claim they will be stretched to maintain their supply chains next month why on earth would we want to add the turmoil of a supply chain reorganisation in to the mix.
But then Greg Clark is easily duped.
Even if Brexit is significantly delayed next week costs have been incurred (albeit not as big an increase as we'd see if we crash out). We've also seen cost loading and cash flow strains on businesses not resilient enough to cope (and yes, I count the likes of Asda and JS in this as they are not remotely profitable enough for their stock exchange overlords).
So price rises are inevitable. Brexit has cost the industry a lot and we haven't left yet. And for the few lucky sods not directly hit by costs? They'll go for price anyway as its a free hit if everyone else is doing so.0 -
I am shocked the famously publicity shy Paddy Power would do such a thing.TrèsDifficile said:
Have you seen the Paddy Power Cantona BrexitBunker ad?TheScreamingEagles said:Thanks Shadsy.
Thanks to Mr Meeks for mentioning Yang the other day.
And what do you think of your anti-Brexit, Irish and French allies saying that the bunker will keep you "as happy as David Cameron with a pig"?
They didn’t use to be like this before they merged with Betfair.0 -
Yeah but YANGGANG2020 Yes I'm laying him too, but should be a fun ride..FrancisUrquhart said:Yang's problem is although he identifies a genuine issue coming down the tracks, his solutions are totally unrealistic. UBI is the most "sensible" of them and that would cost trillions and require a giant shake-up. Once you get past that, he policies start to get real nutty, real quickly.
He has been touring all the "intellectual dark web" podcasts, JRE, Sam Harris, Freakonomics, and he always starts off well, sounds plausible, but after 30mins it all goes downhill.
I imagine if he ever gains any real traction, the inner machine of the DNC will rip him apart in favour of their chosen candidates.0 -
FPT
Liz sounding rather fatalistic...rottenborough said:
0 -
Made me chuckle,TrèsDifficile said:
Have you seen the Paddy Power Cantona BrexitBunker ad?TheScreamingEagles said:Thanks Shadsy.
Thanks to Mr Meeks for mentioning Yang the other day.
And what do you think of your anti-Brexit, Irish and French allies saying that the bunker will keep you "as happy as David Cameron with a pig"?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v2OsF-tmGpQ0 -
I do like his Maybot dance!FrancisUrquhart said:
Made me chuckle,TrèsDifficile said:
Have you seen the Paddy Power Cantona BrexitBunker ad?TheScreamingEagles said:Thanks Shadsy.
Thanks to Mr Meeks for mentioning Yang the other day.
And what do you think of your anti-Brexit, Irish and French allies saying that the bunker will keep you "as happy as David Cameron with a pig"?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v2OsF-tmGpQ0 -
https://twitter.com/David_K_Clark/status/1108017116865691649
Really late to this. Some of us started in the autumn.0 -
You have to give it to them, Paddy Power advertising department is top-notch.
Remember when they got Farage to do a pro Europe one for the Ryder cup. Ryan Giggs brother doing one last month was also very funny.
I did notice that Piers Morgan's Ryder cup one didn't get many view though, no idea why.0 -
For those of us already short Gabbard, it presented something of a free hit (in Betfair cashflow terms).TheScreamingEagles said:Thanks Shadsy.
Thanks to Mr Meeks for mentioning Yang the other day.
Her candidacy continues to mystify.
https://www.politico.com/story/2019/03/19/tulsi-gabbard-2020-campaign-12257580 -
78 year old columnist says Biden and Sanders are too old to be President...
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/joe-biden-and-bernie-sanders-are-too-old-to-be-president/2019/03/18/66f9a316-49ac-11e9-93d0-64dbcf38ba41_story.html0 -
I tipped him way before you!! It was my son who put me onto him.rottenborough said:Go Pete Bettigieg! Good to see Shadys following my tip of two weeks ago!!!
0 -
Great final line.
I'm not a Yang man (does that make me a Yin?). He looks like this year's profitable lay to me.0 -
Brexit has certainly highlighted many things in this country that have needed fixing for a long time.williamglenn said:0 -
I remember.....Cyclefree said:
I tipped him way before you!! It was my son who put me onto him.rottenborough said:Go Pete Bettigieg! Good to see Shadys following my tip of two weeks ago!!!
0 -
Apparently, the nutters who have broken in the AG office aren't there because of Brexit,
the protesters are conspiracy theorist group ‘Fighting For Justice’, sometimes known as ‘Justice For Our Boys’ who are often heard shouting outside Parliament. They have broken into the Attorney General’s office to demand an apology.
https://order-order.com/2019/03/19/conspiracy-theorists-break-attorney-generals-office/
0 -
https://twitter.com/AlastairMeeks/status/1092156069835689984rottenborough said:https://twitter.com/David_K_Clark/status/1108017116865691649
Really late to this. Some of us started in the autumn.0 -
I can't see any boxed wine there....must be all just out of shot.AlastairMeeks said:
https://twitter.com/AlastairMeeks/status/1092156069835689984rottenborough said:https://twitter.com/David_K_Clark/status/1108017116865691649
Really late to this. Some of us started in the autumn.0 -
-
he keeps it next to the canned pineapple for pizza nightFrancisUrquhart said:
I can't see any boxed wine there....must be all just out of shot.AlastairMeeks said:
https://twitter.com/AlastairMeeks/status/1092156069835689984rottenborough said:https://twitter.com/David_K_Clark/status/1108017116865691649
Really late to this. Some of us started in the autumn.0 -
Good afternoon, everyone.
FPT: Mr. F, congrats. What's the start of the period you'll be covering?0 -
My local pub does a great Hawaiian pizza. It calls it "the Debatable".Alanbrooke said:
he keeps it next to the canned pineapple for pizza nightFrancisUrquhart said:
I can't see any boxed wine there....must be all just out of shot.AlastairMeeks said:
https://twitter.com/AlastairMeeks/status/1092156069835689984rottenborough said:https://twitter.com/David_K_Clark/status/1108017116865691649
Really late to this. Some of us started in the autumn.0 -
Peter bone on SKY saying this 9 months is not an extension of article 50, but a 9 month period where the EU's no deal contingency "mini deals" come into place. i.e the planes flying, financial services, etc.Scott_P said:0 -
In seriousness, the main effect of Yang is that it makes Trump look absolubtely old hat. MAGA is SO 2016 now, it's all about Yang Gang 2020 in the crucial meme primary. It won't make much difference (And Yang doesn't win because of this), but Trump needs every advantage he can get. It destroys buzz and sucks oxygen from him.
In short Yang is terrible news for Trump.0 -
I can see the debate over an extension is going to go well...ralphmalph said:
Peter bone on SKY saying this 9 months is not an extension of article 50, but a 9 month period where the EU's no deal contingency "mini deals" come into place. i.e the planes flying, financial services, etc.Scott_P said:0 -
I'd agree. It makes him look like last year's man.Pulpstar said:In seriousness, the main effect of Yang is that it makes Trump look absolubtely old hat. MAGA is SO 2016 now, it's all about Yang Gang 2020 in the crucial meme primary. It won't make much difference (And Yang doesn't win because of this), but Trump needs every advantage he can get. It destroys buzz and sucks oxygen from him.
In short Yang is terrible news for Trump.0 -
We're in the market for various bulk cereals. With the exception of one provider who is clearly prepped and sees a big opportunity for distress business, the rest can't guarantee delivery dates or prices. On anything, as delivery dates are now into April.TOPPING said:As of a couple of weeks ago a grain merchant friend of mine said that no vessels of wheat had been traded for post March 29th delivery. Push the supposed exit date back and I can't see how things will work out to say nothing of carry costs.
As an industry we've been warning for a good while (and I've reported so on here) as to the chaos and risk of catastrophe. I've sat in reception of two of our biggest supermarket chains over the last few weeks and heard sales people discussing various vary large food conglomerates struggling for supply of some specific ingredient or other. Remember that you only need to run out of one thing in a recipe or part of its packaging to not be able to supply that product. And what does short supply plus a spike in demand do to prices...?
If this government had set out to methodically cripple the food supply as a policy, it couldn't have been any more effective than reality has been.
0 -
-
And we know that She Will Not Go.AlastairMeeks said:0 -
Not sure about that. Trump still has a year plus to watch and come up with something new, while all his potential opponents slug it out amongst themselves. He can test his strategies by sniping at whichever challengers he fancies/thinks look dangerous, and whoever wins the Democrat primary might already have used up their best ideas preaching to the choir (the increasing left-wing Democrat caucus) and have to come up with a completely new set of tactics for the swing voters they face in November.AlastairMeeks said:
I'd agree. It makes him look like last year's man.Pulpstar said:In seriousness, the main effect of Yang is that it makes Trump look absolubtely old hat. MAGA is SO 2016 now, it's all about Yang Gang 2020 in the crucial meme primary. It won't make much difference (And Yang doesn't win because of this), but Trump needs every advantage he can get. It destroys buzz and sucks oxygen from him.
In short Yang is terrible news for Trump.
Assuming, of course, Trump doesn't face a serious challenger in his own Primary season.0 -
I see Gove's effectively been what I've been saying, No Deal does NOT honour the referendum result.AlastairMeeks said:
A minister told me: "Andrea was sitting there with a face like thunder. She went bonkers.
"She said she’d been on the phone to 40 ERGers [Tory Brexiter MPs] over the weekend and they are not moving. Her objection to the Cabinet was NOT about being ‘Remainers’ but about this being a Cabinet that won’t deliver on no-deal.
"Which Gove said at last cabinet was not what he campaigned for as former chairman of Vote Leave,” and leaves Leadsom stranded (my source says Leadsom is “very much in a minority”).
0 -
Mr. Pioneers, if she seeks a long delay then the year from the failed no confidence challenge will have elapsed and a fresh one can be mounted.0
-
Worse still, it makes him appear borderline sane...AlastairMeeks said:
I'd agree. It makes him look like last year's man.Pulpstar said:In seriousness, the main effect of Yang is that it makes Trump look absolubtely old hat. MAGA is SO 2016 now, it's all about Yang Gang 2020 in the crucial meme primary. It won't make much difference (And Yang doesn't win because of this), but Trump needs every advantage he can get. It destroys buzz and sucks oxygen from him.
In short Yang is terrible news for Trump.0 -
What mechanism do they propose? she is safe until Dec, surely?AlastairMeeks said:0 -
Two weeks out from Brexit and the Conservative chaos continues unabated. This catastrophic policy has undermined trust in every basic institution of our country. Parliament is derided, the civil service condemned, the Union more brittle than ever, the economy holding its breath.
The irresponsible press has a field day whipping up hatred against judges, business people, entrepreneurs and any other person who questions the insanely damaging course we are currently following.
I simply do not understand why the Conservatives, far from facing absolute annihilation, are actually ahead in most polls.
When I speak to Conservatives I simply get a sense of utter despair: "We cannot go on like this". They are right, we can't. May is an inflexible dud as PM, BoJo a shallow sham, Rees Mogg a sinister crook. etc etc.
I guess all those "citizens of Nowhere" seem to have become citizens of Ireland.
0 -
Or impeachment.Endillion said:
Not sure about that. Trump still has a year plus to watch and come up with something new, while all his potential opponents slug it out amongst themselves. He can test his strategies by sniping at whichever challengers he fancies/thinks look dangerous, and whoever wins the Democrat primary might already have used up their best ideas preaching to the choir (the increasing left-wing Democrat caucus) and have to come up with a completely new set of tactics for the swing voters they face in November.AlastairMeeks said:
I'd agree. It makes him look like last year's man.Pulpstar said:In seriousness, the main effect of Yang is that it makes Trump look absolubtely old hat. MAGA is SO 2016 now, it's all about Yang Gang 2020 in the crucial meme primary. It won't make much difference (And Yang doesn't win because of this), but Trump needs every advantage he can get. It destroys buzz and sucks oxygen from him.
In short Yang is terrible news for Trump.
Assuming, of course, Trump doesn't face a serious challenger in his own Primary season.
In any event, he seems to be spending most of his time being goaded by George Conway, rather than honing his 'strategies'.0 -
Dr. Foxy, they could all resign the Conservative whip. Which isn't so much a nuclear option as a Death Star option.0
-
Just had a sponsored advert from Right To Vote appear on Facebook, telling me that 60% of people in my constituency want a second referendum so I ought to support one.
I looked at their page and the average figures for each constituency barely count as a subsample - their poll asked the question of 14,046 adults across 632 constituencies. That's 22.22 people per constituency.0 -
EU government websites infested with third-party adtech scripts
Ironic as it may be, EU websites might not be compliant with the EU's own data protection rules.
https://www.zdnet.com/article/eu-government-websites-are-infested-with-third-party-trackers/0 -
Yebbut, he's an idiot...ralphmalph said:Peter bone on SKY saying this 9 months is not an extension of article 50, but a 9 month period where the EU's no deal contingency "mini deals" come into place. i.e the planes flying, financial services, etc.
0 -
-
What a blessed relief that even May beat Leadsom in the leadership contest.TheScreamingEagles said:
I see Gove's effectively been what I've been saying, No Deal does NOT honour the referendum result.AlastairMeeks said:
A minister told me: "Andrea was sitting there with a face like thunder. She went bonkers.
"She said she’d been on the phone to 40 ERGers [Tory Brexiter MPs] over the weekend and they are not moving. Her objection to the Cabinet was NOT about being ‘Remainers’ but about this being a Cabinet that won’t deliver on no-deal.
"Which Gove said at last cabinet was not what he campaigned for as former chairman of Vote Leave,” and leaves Leadsom stranded (my source says Leadsom is “very much in a minority”).0 -
If there's a majority to oust her then there is a majority to change the 1922 rules.Foxy said:
What mechanism do they propose? she is safe until Dec, surely?AlastairMeeks said:
There may not be enough to change the 1922 rules though.0 -
She is good value for next Leader IMO.WhisperingOracle said:
What a blessed relief that even May beat Leadsom in the leadership contest.TheScreamingEagles said:
I see Gove's effectively been what I've been saying, No Deal does NOT honour the referendum result.AlastairMeeks said:
A minister told me: "Andrea was sitting there with a face like thunder. She went bonkers.
"She said she’d been on the phone to 40 ERGers [Tory Brexiter MPs] over the weekend and they are not moving. Her objection to the Cabinet was NOT about being ‘Remainers’ but about this being a Cabinet that won’t deliver on no-deal.
"Which Gove said at last cabinet was not what he campaigned for as former chairman of Vote Leave,” and leaves Leadsom stranded (my source says Leadsom is “very much in a minority”).0 -
Call that stockpiling. Pah! That's a normal supply in our house.AlastairMeeks said:
https://twitter.com/AlastairMeeks/status/1092156069835689984rottenborough said:https://twitter.com/David_K_Clark/status/1108017116865691649
Really late to this. Some of us started in the autumn.0 -
He's mostly angry about a Twitter account called "Devin Nunes' Mom" which mercilessly takes the piss out of him.FrancisUrquhart said:US politician Devin Nunes sues Twitter over insults
https://www.bbc.com/news/technology-47624326
I think he needs a safe space.0 -
Which would mean the end of the Tory party.Foxy said:
She is good value for next Leader IMO.WhisperingOracle said:
What a blessed relief that even May beat Leadsom in the leadership contest.TheScreamingEagles said:
I see Gove's effectively been what I've been saying, No Deal does NOT honour the referendum result.AlastairMeeks said:
A minister told me: "Andrea was sitting there with a face like thunder. She went bonkers.
"She said she’d been on the phone to 40 ERGers [Tory Brexiter MPs] over the weekend and they are not moving. Her objection to the Cabinet was NOT about being ‘Remainers’ but about this being a Cabinet that won’t deliver on no-deal.
"Which Gove said at last cabinet was not what he campaigned for as former chairman of Vote Leave,” and leaves Leadsom stranded (my source says Leadsom is “very much in a minority”).0 -
My wife and I listened to him and groaned in despair at his lack of political understanding of the forces against his and ERG view of a wasteland brexitScott_P said:
Yebbut, he's an idiot...ralphmalph said:Peter bone on SKY saying this 9 months is not an extension of article 50, but a 9 month period where the EU's no deal contingency "mini deals" come into place. i.e the planes flying, financial services, etc.
0 -
With all due respect, that's bullsh1t. The dry bulk (to the UK) market has gone a bit - err - illiquid, and costs have risen, but the idea that there are no ships coming after the 29th is ridiculous.TOPPING said:
As of a couple of weeks ago a grain merchant friend of mine said that no vessels of wheat had been traded for post March 29th delivery. Push the supposed exit date back and I can't see how things will work out to say nothing of carry costs.RochdalePioneers said:With apologies FPT:
There will be substantial food price rises whether we Brexit or not. Several reasons: the entire industry has largely tied itself in knots trying to second guess events. Vast amounts of cash is tied up in stored stock, ingredients and packaging all stockpiled as a hedge against disruption. All that costs money. The massive change to ordering patterns has genuinely loaded costs onto producers who have had to work flat out to fulfill enhanced orders.Alanbrooke said:it doesnt seem to have struck JS and ASDA that screaming about price increases post Brexit while simultaneously claiming there will be price decreases in the post Brexit world may be somewhat inconsistent.
Likewise if both supermarkets claim they will be stretched to maintain their supply chains next month why on earth would we want to add the turmoil of a supply chain reorganisation in to the mix.
But then Greg Clark is easily duped.
Even if Brexit is significantly delayed next week costs have been incurred (albeit not as big an increase as we'd see if we crash out). We've also seen cost loading and cash flow strains on businesses not resilient enough to cope (and yes, I count the likes of Asda and JS in this as they are not remotely profitable enough for their stock exchange overlords).
So price rises are inevitable. Brexit has cost the industry a lot and we haven't left yet. And for the few lucky sods not directly hit by costs? They'll go for price anyway as its a free hit if everyone else is doing so.0 -
Indeed. But as the crash Brexit / delayed Brexit* shockwave blasts away whats left of Tory unity I can see at least some people continuing to support leaving her in office for fear of the alternative.Pulpstar said:
If there's a majority to oust her then there is a majority to change the 1922 rules.Foxy said:
What mechanism do they propose? she is safe until Dec, surely?AlastairMeeks said:
There may not be enough to change the 1922 rules though.
Do do have to wonder about Shame. At which point does her self awareness, self pride and supposed concern for party and country kick in and make her decide to stop? At one end of the spectrum we have Estelle Morris, who harshly self assessed her own performance as Education Secretary and not only quit the post but quit politics. At the other end we have May. Brazen doesn't cover it.
*delete as appropriate0 -
Presumably a Parliamentary vote of no confidence.Foxy said:
What mechanism do they propose? she is safe until Dec, surely?AlastairMeeks said:
0 -
-
There is nowhere near a majority wanting to replace TMPulpstar said:
If there's a majority to oust her then there is a majority to change the 1922 rules.Foxy said:
What mechanism do they propose? she is safe until Dec, surely?AlastairMeeks said:
There may not be enough to change the 1922 rules though.0 -
-
I have been quite impressed with her recentlyFoxy said:
She is good value for next Leader IMO.WhisperingOracle said:
What a blessed relief that even May beat Leadsom in the leadership contest.TheScreamingEagles said:
I see Gove's effectively been what I've been saying, No Deal does NOT honour the referendum result.AlastairMeeks said:
A minister told me: "Andrea was sitting there with a face like thunder. She went bonkers.
"She said she’d been on the phone to 40 ERGers [Tory Brexiter MPs] over the weekend and they are not moving. Her objection to the Cabinet was NOT about being ‘Remainers’ but about this being a Cabinet that won’t deliver on no-deal.
"Which Gove said at last cabinet was not what he campaigned for as former chairman of Vote Leave,” and leaves Leadsom stranded (my source says Leadsom is “very much in a minority”).0 -
Haven't we been through this before (I think David Herdson did a piece on it?). In theory, yes but the 1922 Committee can change the rules which they would do if it looked like she needed to go.Foxy said:
What mechanism do they propose? she is safe until Dec, surely?AlastairMeeks said:0 -
The reason why Conservative support is where it is is that 45% + favour Brexit, lots of people don't like Corbyn, and there is full employment.Cicero said:Two weeks out from Brexit and the Conservative chaos continues unabated. This catastrophic policy has undermined trust in every basic institution of our country. Parliament is derided, the civil service condemned, the Union more brittle than ever, the economy holding its breath.
The irresponsible press has a field day whipping up hatred against judges, business people, entrepreneurs and any other person who questions the insanely damaging course we are currently following.
I simply do not understand why the Conservatives, far from facing absolute annihilation, are actually ahead in most polls.
When I speak to Conservatives I simply get a sense of utter despair: "We cannot go on like this". They are right, we can't. May is an inflexible dud as PM, BoJo a shallow sham, Rees Mogg a sinister crook. etc etc.
I guess all those "citizens of Nowhere" seem to have become citizens of Ireland.0 -
Barnier restating "no faffing delay" policy.. setting out what TM's letter needs to include.0
-
The current definition of Shame (as set out here - http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2017/11/06/the-pb-cynics-dictionary-especially-complied-for-the-times/):-RochdalePioneers said:
Indeed. But as the crash Brexit / delayed Brexit* shockwave blasts away whats left of Tory unity I can see at least some people continuing to support leaving her in office for fear of the alternative.Pulpstar said:
If there's a majority to oust her then there is a majority to change the 1922 rules.Foxy said:
What mechanism do they propose? she is safe until Dec, surely?AlastairMeeks said:
There may not be enough to change the 1922 rules though.
Do do have to wonder about Shame. At which point does her self awareness, self pride and supposed concern for party and country kick in and make her decide to stop? At one end of the spectrum we have Estelle Morris, who harshly self assessed her own performance as Education Secretary and not only quit the post but quit politics. At the other end we have May. Brazen doesn't cover it.
*delete as appropriate
"Shame: No known contemporary definition. Last heard of in the 1960’s."
0 -
So, that would last about a fortnight?AlastairMeeks said:
https://twitter.com/AlastairMeeks/status/1092156069835689984rottenborough said:https://twitter.com/David_K_Clark/status/1108017116865691649
Really late to this. Some of us started in the autumn.0 -
I found this article at the time interesting, I wonder if it is still the case.Sean_F said:
The reason why Conservative support is where it is is that 45% + favour Brexit, lots of people don't like Corbyn, and there is full employment.Cicero said:Two weeks out from Brexit and the Conservative chaos continues unabated. This catastrophic policy has undermined trust in every basic institution of our country. Parliament is derided, the civil service condemned, the Union more brittle than ever, the economy holding its breath.
The irresponsible press has a field day whipping up hatred against judges, business people, entrepreneurs and any other person who questions the insanely damaging course we are currently following.
I simply do not understand why the Conservatives, far from facing absolute annihilation, are actually ahead in most polls.
When I speak to Conservatives I simply get a sense of utter despair: "We cannot go on like this". They are right, we can't. May is an inflexible dud as PM, BoJo a shallow sham, Rees Mogg a sinister crook. etc etc.
I guess all those "citizens of Nowhere" seem to have become citizens of Ireland.
https://www.businessinsider.com/unemployment-in-the-uk-is-now-so-low-its-in-danger-of-exposing-the-lie-used-to-create-the-numbers-2017-7?r=US&IR=T0 -
Frankly, given how it is currently behaving, hard to see why that is not a good thing.WhisperingOracle said:
Which would mean the end of the Tory party.Foxy said:
She is good value for next Leader IMO.WhisperingOracle said:
What a blessed relief that even May beat Leadsom in the leadership contest.TheScreamingEagles said:
I see Gove's effectively been what I've been saying, No Deal does NOT honour the referendum result.AlastairMeeks said:
A minister told me: "Andrea was sitting there with a face like thunder. She went bonkers.
"She said she’d been on the phone to 40 ERGers [Tory Brexiter MPs] over the weekend and they are not moving. Her objection to the Cabinet was NOT about being ‘Remainers’ but about this being a Cabinet that won’t deliver on no-deal.
"Which Gove said at last cabinet was not what he campaigned for as former chairman of Vote Leave,” and leaves Leadsom stranded (my source says Leadsom is “very much in a minority”).0 -
The Claimant Count is pretty meaningless as a definition of unemployment, but the ILO figures (which is the ONS headline figure) is generally considered accurate. Saying that anyone who is not currently employed is therefore unemployed is very misleading.148grss said:
I found this article at the time interesting, I wonder if it is still the case.Sean_F said:
The reason why Conservative support is where it is is that 45% + favour Brexit, lots of people don't like Corbyn, and there is full employment.Cicero said:Two weeks out from Brexit and the Conservative chaos continues unabated. This catastrophic policy has undermined trust in every basic institution of our country. Parliament is derided, the civil service condemned, the Union more brittle than ever, the economy holding its breath.
The irresponsible press has a field day whipping up hatred against judges, business people, entrepreneurs and any other person who questions the insanely damaging course we are currently following.
I simply do not understand why the Conservatives, far from facing absolute annihilation, are actually ahead in most polls.
When I speak to Conservatives I simply get a sense of utter despair: "We cannot go on like this". They are right, we can't. May is an inflexible dud as PM, BoJo a shallow sham, Rees Mogg a sinister crook. etc etc.
I guess all those "citizens of Nowhere" seem to have become citizens of Ireland.
https://www.businessinsider.com/unemployment-in-the-uk-is-now-so-low-its-in-danger-of-exposing-the-lie-used-to-create-the-numbers-2017-7?r=US&IR=T
And, as it happens, real wages have started going up again.0 -
I hope the EU grants an extension to the 30th June and that is it. No further discussion or negotiation
That should focus minds0 -
Miss Cyclefree, because it might enable Corbyn as PM.
Incompetence isn't good. Incompetence plus a spike in anti-Semitism, plus the scourge of socialism is worse by far.0 -
0
-
Andrea Leadsom to believe she spoke for the country.TheScreamingEagles said:
I see Gove's effectively been what I've been saying, No Deal does NOT honour the referendum result.AlastairMeeks said:
A minister told me: "Andrea was sitting there with a face like thunder. She went bonkers.
"She said she’d been on the phone to 40 ERGers [Tory Brexiter MPs] over the weekend and they are not moving. Her objection to the Cabinet was NOT about being ‘Remainers’ but about this being a Cabinet that won’t deliver on no-deal.
"Which Gove said at last cabinet was not what he campaigned for as former chairman of Vote Leave,” and leaves Leadsom stranded (my source says Leadsom is “very much in a minority”).
But, she speaks only for the ERG.
0 -
Big_G_NorthWales said:
I hope the EU grants an extension to the 30th June and that is it. No further discussion or negotiation
That should focus minds
A delay of, let's say, 50 or so years would be preferable for anyone who is trying to make a hill of beans in this crazy world.0 -
schrodingers WA....Scott_P said:Prisoners' dilemma
https://twitter.com/singharj/status/11080353310671216650 -
Barnier
The deal is the only possible basis for orderly UK exit
There must be a purpose for the extension hinting at GE or referendum0 -
-
pah young Smithson, you have emigrated to the colonies and have forfeited the right to comment :-)rcs1000 said:
With all due respect, that's bullsh1t. The dry bulk (to the UK) market has gone a bit - err - illiquid, and costs have risen, but the idea that there are no ships coming after the 29th is ridiculous.TOPPING said:
As of a couple of weeks ago a grain merchant friend of mine said that no vessels of wheat had been traded for post March 29th delivery. Push the supposed exit date back and I can't see how things will work out to say nothing of carry costs.RochdalePioneers said:With apologies FPT:
There will be substantial food price rises whether we Brexit or not. Several reasons: the entire industry has largely tied itself in knots trying to second guess events. Vast amounts of cash is tied up in stored stock, ingredients and packaging all stockpiled as a hedge against disruption. All that costs money. The massive change to ordering patterns has genuinely loaded costs onto producers who have had to work flat out to fulfill enhanced orders.Alanbrooke said:it doesnt seem to have struck JS and ASDA that screaming about price increases post Brexit while simultaneously claiming there will be price decreases in the post Brexit world may be somewhat inconsistent.
Likewise if both supermarkets claim they will be stretched to maintain their supply chains next month why on earth would we want to add the turmoil of a supply chain reorganisation in to the mix.
But then Greg Clark is easily duped.
Even if Brexit is significantly delayed next week costs have been incurred (albeit not as big an increase as we'd see if we crash out). We've also seen cost loading and cash flow strains on businesses not resilient enough to cope (and yes, I count the likes of Asda and JS in this as they are not remotely profitable enough for their stock exchange overlords).
So price rises are inevitable. Brexit has cost the industry a lot and we haven't left yet. And for the few lucky sods not directly hit by costs? They'll go for price anyway as its a free hit if everyone else is doing so.
desist or Ill send you a picture of a bus0 -
That's what I've been saying. A long extension is an admission of failure, the Cabinet must tell her to go.AlastairMeeks said:0 -
Of course. But the way the Tories are behaving is making a Corbyn government ever more likely. So best to get a new sensible party of the centre right - as well as a better one on the left.Morris_Dancer said:Miss Cyclefree, because it might enable Corbyn as PM.
Incompetence isn't good. Incompetence plus a spike in anti-Semitism, plus the scourge of socialism is worse by far.
The Tories are enabling an illiberal political culture to grow. They do not deserve to be forgiven for that.0 -
real wages have started going up againSean_F said:
The Claimant Count is pretty meaningless as a definition of unemployment, but the ILO figures (which is the ONS headline figure) is generally considered accurate. Saying that anyone who is not currently employed is therefore unemployed is very misleading.148grss said:
I found this article at the time interesting, I wonder if it is still the case.Sean_F said:
The reason why Conservative support is where it is is that 45% + favour Brexit, lots of people don't like Corbyn, and there is full employment.Cicero said:Two weeks out from Brexit and the Conservative chaos continues unabated. This catastrophic policy has undermined trust in every basic institution of our country. Parliament is derided, the civil service condemned, the Union more brittle than ever, the economy holding its breath.
The irresponsible press has a field day whipping up hatred against judges, business people, entrepreneurs and any other person who questions the insanely damaging course we are currently following.
I simply do not understand why the Conservatives, far from facing absolute annihilation, are actually ahead in most polls.
When I speak to Conservatives I simply get a sense of utter despair: "We cannot go on like this". They are right, we can't. May is an inflexible dud as PM, BoJo a shallow sham, Rees Mogg a sinister crook. etc etc.
I guess all those "citizens of Nowhere" seem to have become citizens of Ireland.
https://www.businessinsider.com/unemployment-in-the-uk-is-now-so-low-its-in-danger-of-exposing-the-lie-used-to-create-the-numbers-2017-7?r=US&IR=T
And, as it happens, real wages have started going up again.
Its good to see at least one Remainer threat come true0 -
Are you prepared to accept no deal on 30th June if it doesn't focus minds?Big_G_NorthWales said:I hope the EU grants an extension to the 30th June and that is it. No further discussion or negotiation
That should focus minds0 -
Andrea Leadsom can't even speak accurately about her own career let alone anything else._Anazina_ said:
Andrea Leadsom to believe she spoke for the country.TheScreamingEagles said:
I see Gove's effectively been what I've been saying, No Deal does NOT honour the referendum result.AlastairMeeks said:
A minister told me: "Andrea was sitting there with a face like thunder. She went bonkers.
"She said she’d been on the phone to 40 ERGers [Tory Brexiter MPs] over the weekend and they are not moving. Her objection to the Cabinet was NOT about being ‘Remainers’ but about this being a Cabinet that won’t deliver on no-deal.
"Which Gove said at last cabinet was not what he campaigned for as former chairman of Vote Leave,” and leaves Leadsom stranded (my source says Leadsom is “very much in a minority”).
But, she speaks only for the ERG.0 -
-
https://twitter.com/ToryFibs/status/1107942175722168321?s=19Alanbrooke said:
real wages have started going up againSean_F said:
The Claimant Count is pretty meaningless as a definition of unemployment, but the ILO figures (which is the ONS headline figure) is generally considered accurate. Saying that anyone who is not currently employed is therefore unemployed is very misleading.148grss said:
I found this article at the time interesting, I wonder if it is still the case.Sean_F said:
The reason why Conservative support is where it is is that 45% + favour Brexit, lots of people don't like Corbyn, and there is full employment.Cicero said:Two weeks out from Brexit and the Conservative chaos continues unabated. This catastrophic policy has undermined trust in every basic institution of our country. Parliament is derided, the civil service condemned, the Union more brittle than ever, the economy holding its breath.
The irresponsible press has a field day whipping up hatred against judges, business people, entrepreneurs and any other person who questions the insanely damaging course we are currently following.
I simply do not understand why the Conservatives, far from facing absolute annihilation, are actually ahead in most polls.
When I speak to Conservatives I simply get a sense of utter despair: "We cannot go on like this". They are right, we can't. May is an inflexible dud as PM, BoJo a shallow sham, Rees Mogg a sinister crook. etc etc.
I guess all those "citizens of Nowhere" seem to have become citizens of Ireland.
https://www.businessinsider.com/unemployment-in-the-uk-is-now-so-low-its-in-danger-of-exposing-the-lie-used-to-create-the-numbers-2017-7?r=US&IR=T
And, as it happens, real wages have started going up again.
Its good to see at least one Remainer threat come true0 -
I have no doubt the EU are now in control of the UKs destiny and Barnier, it has to be said is on top of his brief
ERG have not only lost their dream they have trashed our image abroad
Remaining in the EU would be humilating and embarrassing and I still hope TM gets her deal through.
0 -
EU closing off the "Lets have an extension to faf around" door May was hoping to get through0
-
Surely that's not all of it? Let me know if you run out, I might have a bottle or two to spare..AlastairMeeks said:
https://twitter.com/AlastairMeeks/status/1092156069835689984rottenborough said:https://twitter.com/David_K_Clark/status/1108017116865691649
Really late to this. Some of us started in the autumn.
0 -
Nice collection!TrèsDifficile said:
Surely that's not all of it? Let me know if you run out, I might have a bottle or two to spare..AlastairMeeks said:
https://twitter.com/AlastairMeeks/status/1092156069835689984rottenborough said:https://twitter.com/David_K_Clark/status/1108017116865691649
Really late to this. Some of us started in the autumn.
No, it's not all of it. But I can't match yours.0 -
If the HOC cannot come to its senses by then they all deserve to be sacked. No deal is a collective failure of our political class and they will not be forgivenPhilip_Thompson said:
Are you prepared to accept no deal on 30th June if it doesn't focus minds?Big_G_NorthWales said:I hope the EU grants an extension to the 30th June and that is it. No further discussion or negotiation
That should focus minds0 -
"Dr" Eoin Clarke's account!Foxy said:
https://twitter.com/ToryFibs/status/1107942175722168321?s=19Alanbrooke said:
real wages have started going up againSean_F said:
The Claimant Count is pretty meaningless as a definition of unemployment, but the ILO figures (which is the ONS headline figure) is generally considered accurate. Saying that anyone who is not currently employed is therefore unemployed is very misleading.148grss said:
I found this article at the time interesting, I wonder if it is still the case.Sean_F said:
The reason why Conservative support is where it is is that 45% + favour Brexit, lots of people don't like Corbyn, and there is full employment.Cicero said:Two weeks out from Brexit and the Conservative chaos continues unabated. This catastrophic policy has undermined trust in every basic institution of our country. Parliament is derided, the civil service condemned, the Union more brittle than ever, the economy holding its breath.
The irresponsible press has a field day whipping up hatred against judges, business people, entrepreneurs and any other person who questions the insanely damaging course we are currently following.
I simply do not understand why the Conservatives, far from facing absolute annihilation, are actually ahead in most polls.
When I speak to Conservatives I simply get a sense of utter despair: "We cannot go on like this". They are right, we can't. May is an inflexible dud as PM, BoJo a shallow sham, Rees Mogg a sinister crook. etc etc.
I guess all those "citizens of Nowhere" seem to have become citizens of Ireland.
https://www.businessinsider.com/unemployment-in-the-uk-is-now-so-low-its-in-danger-of-exposing-the-lie-used-to-create-the-numbers-2017-7?r=US&IR=T
And, as it happens, real wages have started going up again.
Its good to see at least one Remainer threat come true
What about unreal wages?
0 -
-
Anyone who quotes 2008 figures are themselves disingenous. 2008 was peak bubble, why should we compare with that?Foxy said:
https://twitter.com/ToryFibs/status/1107942175722168321?s=19Alanbrooke said:
real wages have started going up againSean_F said:
The Claimant Count is pretty meaningless as a definition of unemployment, but the ILO figures (which is the ONS headline figure) is generally considered accurate. Saying that anyone who is not currently employed is therefore unemployed is very misleading.148grss said:
I found this article at the time interesting, I wonder if it is still the case.Sean_F said:
The reason why Conservative support is where it is is that 45% + favour Brexit, lots of people don't like Corbyn, and there is full employment.Cicero said:Two weeks out from Brexit and the Conservative chaos continues unabated. This catastrophic policy has undermined trust in every basic institution of our country. Parliament is derided, the civil service condemned, the Union more brittle than ever, the economy holding its breath.
The irresponsible press has a field day whipping up hatred against judges, business people, entrepreneurs and any other person who questions the insanely damaging course we are currently following.
I simply do not understand why the Conservatives, far from facing absolute annihilation, are actually ahead in most polls.
When I speak to Conservatives I simply get a sense of utter despair: "We cannot go on like this". They are right, we can't. May is an inflexible dud as PM, BoJo a shallow sham, Rees Mogg a sinister crook. etc etc.
I guess all those "citizens of Nowhere" seem to have become citizens of Ireland.
https://www.businessinsider.com/unemployment-in-the-uk-is-now-so-low-its-in-danger-of-exposing-the-lie-used-to-create-the-numbers-2017-7?r=US&IR=T
And, as it happens, real wages have started going up again.
Its good to see at least one Remainer threat come true0 -
Yes, well there was a little matter of a humongous world financial crash, the worst since at least the 1930s, which happened under the previous Labour government and was made particularly bad for the UK because the Labour government had dismantled supervision of our banking system. Choosing a start point at the top of the unsustainable boom, just before the crash, is a rather, how shall I put it, 'selective' view of the figures.Foxy said:0 -
Didn't you get the memo? We shouldn't be embarrassed by this mess because, well, reasons.Big_G_NorthWales said:I have no doubt the EU are now in control of the UKs destiny and Barnier, it has to be said is on top of his brief
ERG have not only lost their dream they have trashed our image abroad
Remaining in the EU would be humilating and embarrassing and I still hope TM gets her deal through.
The leavers have turned their beloved Great Britain into Little Britain.
(Which as well as being an unfunny TV comedy, is also a place on the Grand Union Canal near Cowley Peachy Junction. So Little Britain is on the way to the Slough of despond ...)0
