politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Vince Cable stepping down as LD leader. Layla Moran the openin
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Vince Cable stepping down as LD leader. Layla Moran the opening favourite to succeed
On he eve of the Lib Dem Spring Conference in York the leader since GE2017, Twickenham MP Vince Cable, has announced tonight that he’s stepping thus opening up a leadership contest.
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Steel is suspended by Lib Dems.
If anyone should go it should be May for being so bloody incompetent at all this. Whatever happened to "the buck stops here"?
On the leader rules, I thought they'd only discussed them and they had not yet been implemented? It's hard to remember the details of anything coming out of the LD conference.
The Tiggers have a male spokesperson of course, so if they go for party status may well have a male leader. But the Brexit party does not, and they could be major soon if we get EU elections!
Stepping down? Stepping up? Stepping into a vat of liquid marmalade? You decide, readers
a) Layla is awesome.
b) Unusually, everyone I know who comes into contact with her is reinforced in that belief. Cameron was my MP and the universal belief was “he’s a great constituency MP, but he’s a shit”. People I know in OxWAb say “she’s a great constituency MP and she’s a star”. DISCLAIMER: oxfordsimon of this parish believes precisely the opposite.
c) Her constituency agent (a very astute chap) doesn’t want her to stand. He thinks she needs to concentrate on building up her vote first. Personally I think the leadership would be worth an extra 3k and there is no way North Oxford is going to vote Tory post-Brexit, especially given that the contest will be a social liberal teacher vs a weird bitcoin enthusiast, but he knows more about pavement politics than I do.
Leibovitz photo.
But I don't think it a serious proposition.
And I'm even more confused why the rest of the Lib Dem MPs (including the aforementioned Ms Moran) gave him a clear run at it despite those obvious drawbacks.
They should have taken more of a gamble.
Jo Swinson’s reluctance is more significant. But tbh I think Jo’s problem is more that she’s identified with what are characterised as “SJW issues” whereas Layla has been concentrating on “why your child is getting a shit education”, which is arguably a whole bunch more marketable.
Layla, begging, darling, please
Layla, darling, won't you ease my worried mind?
The one we miss is Charlie Kennedy. Just think what a contribution he could make to the Brexit debate. Tragically sad for him but also for the country.
I agree Moran is best for the job. But I was in touch with her office just two weeks back and they said then that she doesn't feel ready.
Was he a long term plant?
I repeat, again, regarding the DUP if it now still isn't evident to some. They really do want to find a way to achieve support for the May deal if they can. They just happen to have come to 'talk' at a moment when they have quite a long and flexible lever.
Whether she thinks that... we shall see.
Then Corbyn is left the only man standing (down to :Adam Price?)
May
Swinson/Moran
Sturgeon
McDonald
That the law can be changed, even on matters of religious faith, seems to be a surprise .
They were one of the first to raise the idea that 'clarifications' might help. There is a strong hint there that they are looking a way through from London as much as Brussels.
https://youtu.be/LhzEsb2tNbI
Personally I am a Lamb-ite, but Layla is a breath of fresh air and great on TV with a natural normality that comes over well.
Run Layla Run.
https://youtu.be/uz2-D4lY2qg
Judging by their actions they don't seem to give a hoot what option happens, and that seems more reliable than judging by their words or even the feeling of people with local knowledge of their operation. They can say they want to help all they want without ever actually helping.
But I could be wrong. It wouldn't take much of a Lib Dem revival to make the Conservative path to a decent majority much harder.
You were ahead of your times there
https://twitter.com/ShankerASingham/status/1106323985837576192
http://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/targets/liberal-democrat
DUP. Before MV2 there was at least momentum and fanfare of various documents that could act as fig leaf for whoever needed one? Fervently against it so far, what actually changes before MV3 for them to do such a fateful flip flop?
ERG. Can be pared down further, yes! but all the way to zero? can thisgroup ever be pared down to less than twen t for MV3?Some including Boris, will never vote for May’s deal, see it as too much vassalage not enough respect for Britain that can only come from no deal, One way to pare it down would be for May to announce timetable of her departure this year. However one variable eclipses growing threat of no Brexit, seeing the terms, strings, the control EU will have over Brexit at the next EU gathering, Britain weak at the summit begging, accepting distasteful terms at the hands of the EU will set a terrible anti EU, pro no deal mood back here will influence brexiteers inMV4 held straight after it, sending noes on MV4 up again not down.
Labour rebels. In their minds this week it was last meaningful vote time, yet just three Labour MPs went for it. How many more for MV3 and why? How many come out the woodwork if it looks like it could win, will it ever look like it could win for them to risk that? Where’s thirty Mann predicted when he came out of Downing Street having talked thirty pieces of silver? Am beginning to think Mann, darling of media for a quote is a tad gobby over exaggerates. Just because someone is leave inclined or in leave constituency doesn’t make them a shoe in for supporting May’s narrowly negotiated self-confessed imperfect deal, regardless what party they are in.
Tory remainers, soft brexiteers, back to thepeoplers. And here’s the thing, with all the focus on ERG/DUP we could be missing something that has changed since MV2. This tory grouping have become firmer, bigger, emboldened making Mays deal even harder to pass? Those in this grouping who backed may in MV2, such as Ken Clarke, can their vote be taken for granted in MV3?
I repeat what should have happened all along. Get Barnier, May, Varadkar and the DUP [I don't know if its Dodds or Foster who is really in charge] in the same room, metaphorically lock the doors and tell them they can come out once they've reached an agreement.
Yes, because if you cannot agree a big deal, agreeing lots of mini deals is super easy.
GuidoFawkes, while dismissive of no deal fears, does seem to me to be broadly a reluctant deal supporter, and while more cautious than others in making predictions perhaps just as prone to the unreasonable optimism of most predictors of potential success for the deal.
Maybe I've read him wrong though.
So the 'negotiations' didn't actually negotiate anything at all. But a new leader or whoever would manage to negotiate something major in a week?
What's not been spoken about much is that we've already reached a whole series of mini deals that will be implemented in a no deal scenario.
And yes I know May can do it unilaterally, but she won't
Hence my proposal that Dodds [and lets add Cox too] should be in the room next time.
If there's to be a successful MV3 the same could happen again. But this time less of a farce would be great.
They aren't aiming at the same objectives as the ERG beyond supporting Brexit and ensuring the union is maintained. Never have been and given some ERG members wouldn't give two hoots about NI in an ideological quest for their kind of Brexit, there are some interesting gaps between the two. The DUP have, somehow, got to a situation where many of the ERG grouping are relying on their opinion. Why that is, no idea but there it is.
If you look back on Monday, I posted clearly that the concessions brought back on Monday would prove challenging for the DUP to say no to and that they would hold on making a call until the morning if not the afternoon. They just sat tight. Now its all stories that the DUP are talking here and there.
Consider their existential purpose and its perfectly logical why they now want to close out on this situation.
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When you promised an end to spin & triangulation but delivered constructive ambiguity. When you said members would shape policy but shut them out. When working class voters think you're a Liberal elite & affluent voters think you've sold out for Leave, maybe it's a dead end.