politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Now all eyes are on the DUP – if they’re happy then a deal mor
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Only if they want to be sure of losing.HYUFD said:
The EU could of course demand EUref2 Remain v Deal as the price of a lengthy extension, putting the threat of No Brexit at all tooChris said:One thing I think we should bear in mind is that the vote today isn't taking place under an imminent threat of No Deal, because there's a strong expectation that a short extension will be approved by the EU.
But a short extension may be all there is, and the BBC yesterday was suggesting it would be only seven and a half weeks - until the Euro elections, not until the European parliament convenes. If the EU makes that clear, and if people believe it, then even if the New Deal fails relatively narrowly today, it may go through later when there's a more tangible threat of No Deal as the alternative. (I still don't believe revocation could happen without a second referendum.)0 -
That sounds like if the AG gives us cover, we'll retreat.Scott_P said:0 -
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That's what Parliament should have been doing for the last nine months, the transition period doesn't matter all that much in the long term.Jonathan said:It looks like they are lapping up the thin gruel like good little boys and girls, the deal will now pass and we will be in May’s limbo state and able to debate Brexit for years to come.
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Cant say I'm confident. Too many erg likely to be bullish . But at least some option is closed off today.0
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On other news. Australia joins Singapore in banning all 737 - 8 flights into their airspace and more countries to follow. There are 400 in service but for Boeing 5,000 on order
Big problem for Boeing0 -
There is another factor for the DUP to consider here. Time and time again, polls have shown that, if push comes to shove, a majority of pro-Brexit voters would favour NI leaving the UK - which is the "cleanest" solution to the Backstop - than having to sign a deal they don't like. If the DUP vote for May's deal and there is the cry that Brexit has been betrayed, then the question of whether it is worthwhile having NI in the UK will be centre stage in politics.Scott_P said:
So the DUP will be looking to see what the ERG and their ilk do (not the other way round). If the ERG accept the deal, then that gives cover to the DUP.
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Varadkar hopes and trusts the WDA will pass the HOC tonight0
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From the distant perspective of sunny Bangkok I can say, without hesitation, that I don’t know whether I want the Deal to pass, and I also think it will fail, but it might pass later on, yet probably not, so who knows what will happen then, not me. I hope that clarifies things.DavidL said:Classic PB this morning. Those who want the deal to pass almost universally say that it is not going to. Those who want to remain almost universally think that May has done enough and it will pass. I want the deal to pass so, logically, I have my doubts.
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I'll tell you if there's an 'all staff' email when I get to the office, but I bet there isn't.DougSeal said:
What is this “legal world” and why am I not invited?Gallowgate said:
By the way, if I told an journo that a lawyer had advised HMG explicitly one way, and was changing their mind under political pressure to 180 degrees the opposite, I'd want the shield of an email trail showing exactly that.0 -
I suspect the AG will fudge between his legal instincts and his political ones, and declare "no-ish but yes-ish".Gallowgate said:
Then MV either passing very narrowly this time, or rejected narrowly this time then passing narrowly next time.
And May lives to fight another day... just in time for years of negotiations on the future relationship which will, no doubt, come down to the wire in the last weeks two years hence.
Depressing as anything but what can you do.0 -
Getting concerned now. My wife and children are due to fly later this month (I cant go due to work obligations). I think it might be a 737 - 8 they're due to fly on.Big_G_NorthWales said:On other news. Australia joins Singapore in banning all 737 - 8 flights into their airspace and more countries to follow. There are 400 in service but for Boeing 5,000 on order
Big problem for Boeing0 -
The remainers are all out in force while leavers arevmuch quieterHYUFD said:
For the sake of the country I hope the deal gets through and I would also predict real anger in the populace if the deal is taken down especially as labour will be seen acting purely in their own interests0 -
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They could be banned worldwide by thenPhilip_Thompson said:
Getting concerned now. My wife and children are due to fly later this month (I cant go due to work obligations). I think it might be a 737 - 8 they're due to fly on.Big_G_NorthWales said:On other news. Australia joins Singapore in banning all 737 - 8 flights into their airspace and more countries to follow. There are 400 in service but for Boeing 5,000 on order
Big problem for Boeing0 -
It’s all down to the ERG and the DUP, not LabourBig_G_NorthWales said:
The remainers are all out in force while leavers arevmuch quieterHYUFD said:
For the sake of the country I hope the deal gets through and I would also predict real anger in the populace if the deal is taken down especially as labour will be seen acting purely in their own interests0 -
They could be right, but it would be by accident since like their counterparts in the ERG nothing will divert them from their moral mission. Its pathetic that they try to claim objective analysis. God himself could tell them it was fine and theyd disagree.MarqueeMark said:0 -
I was wondering the same. I remain fascinated by the idea that a legal opinion should be treated as akin to the sermon on the mount in its certainty and infallibility.DougSeal said:
What is this “legal world” and why am I not invited?Gallowgate said:0 -
How would this news have gotten out? Professionally and politically Cox would look a fool if it is true.Gallowgate said:0 -
Channel 4 remainers peddling fake news is the most likely scenario here.kle4 said:
How would this news have gotten out? Professionally and politically Cox would look a fool if it is true.Gallowgate said:0 -
Erm, wasn't it posted on this very pb a thread or two back?kle4 said:
How would this news have gotten out? Professionally and politically Cox would look a fool if it is true.Gallowgate said:0 -
It's a wash, but rest assured its large damage either way.SandyRentool said:
I want events to damage the Tories to maximum effect. I'm not sure whether pass or fail will achieve this.DavidL said:Classic PB this morning. Those who want the deal to pass almost universally say that it is not going to. Those who want to remain almost universally think that May has done enough and it will pass. I want the deal to pass so, logically, I have my doubts.
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Disagree, on both counts. First, I suspect the Deal will fall, albeit narrowly. Second, if it DOES pass, that’s it: we will stop talking about Brexit in this maniacal and obsessive way. Yes it will be a grumbling issue in the background, like a small duodenal ulcer, but it won’t be the possible brain cancer with vicious associated migraines that it is today.Jonathan said:
It looks like they are lapping up the thin gruel like good little boys and girls, the deal will now pass and we will be in May’s limbo state and able to debate Brexit for years to come.SouthamObserver said:
I am very torn now. I have wanted the deal to pass because I thought the alternative was no deal. Now, though, it’s clear the alternative is Remain or Norway plus. My guess, though, is that the ERG and DUP can see what I see and will vote for the Brexit they say they want.DavidL said:Classic PB this morning. Those who want the deal to pass almost universally say that it is not going to. Those who want to remain almost universally think that May has done enough and it will pass. I want the deal to pass so, logically, I have my doubts.
Brexit will go from one massive first order issue to a series of smaller, boring, second and third order issues as we slowly thrash out the important but very tedious detail of our FTA: from fishing to banking to aviation to education blah blah; everyone will very happily yawn and switch over.0 -
What time are we expecting AG statement?0
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The JSFA website is out of date. PO has finally been forced to admit that they did have the ability to alter branch records without the knowledge of the subposmaster despite repeated denials, including their then CEO, Paula Vennells, assuring MPs this was not possible. They have also been forced to disclose their Known Error Log listing tens of thousands of known errors, despite insisting that no such log existed. It also appears to be clear from evidence given in the first case that Post Office deliberately suppressed evidence in criminal prosecutions if it would harm their case, contrary to the law which requires them to disclose all such evidence to the defence.JosiasJessop said:
Radio 4 has been over this case for years. It's broken a fair few lives, and the problem wasn't the computer software: it was the way the PO bosses and courts believed the software was correct, and then (IMO) PO bosses then didn't seem to want to admit to problems - despite people having been jailed.AndyJS said:O/T
Why isn't this making the headlines and front pages?
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-6797193/More-500-village-postmasters-wrongly-hounded-stealing-millions-system.html
Yes, there were software bugs the real evil was the process that overlay it.
https://www.jfsa.org.uk/about-us.html
As a quick example, from a report: "Our current, evidence based opinion, is that Fujitsu / Post Office did have, and may still have, the ability to directly alter branch records without the knowledge of the relevant Subpostmaster" (the PO and Fujitsu deny this).
That alone should have been enough to drive a coach and horses through any court cases.
There will be at least three, possible four trials. The decision in the first should be out at the end of this week or early next. If Post Office win, the judge will have accepted their argument that they do not have to act in good faith when dealing with subpostmasters, i.e they don't have to treat them with honesty and sincerity. If they succeed, who would want to be a subpostmaster?0 -
I think all comments today needs to look at the source and especially if they are a remainer and of course the broadcast media which is very remainer biasedkle4 said:
How would this news have gotten out? Professionally and politically Cox would look a fool if it is true.Gallowgate said:0 -
If the ERG all support the deal, how sure are we that it will pass?0
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LOL. Clear as day.SeanT said:
From the distant perspective of sunny Bangkok I can say, without hesitation, that I don’t know whether I want the Deal to pass, and I also think it will fail, but it might pass later on, yet probably not, so who knows what will happen then, not me. I hope that clarifies things.DavidL said:Classic PB this morning. Those who want the deal to pass almost universally say that it is not going to. Those who want to remain almost universally think that May has done enough and it will pass. I want the deal to pass so, logically, I have my doubts.
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We can all switch over to watching Labour get pressed to death, as more and more cases of anti-semitism are loaded onto it moribund frame....SeanT said:
Disagree, on both counts. First, I suspect the Deal will fall, albeit narrowly. Second, if it DOES pass, that’s it: we will stop talking about Brexit in this maniacal and obsessive way. Yes it will be a grumbling issue in the background, like a small duodenal ulcer, but it won’t be the possible brain cancer with vicious associated migraines that it is today.Jonathan said:
It looks like they are lapping up the thin gruel like good little boys and girls, the deal will now pass and we will be in May’s limbo state and able to debate Brexit for years to come.SouthamObserver said:
I am very torn now. I have wanted the deal to pass because I thought the alternative was no deal. Now, though, it’s clear the alternative is Remain or Norway plus. My guess, though, is that the ERG and DUP can see what I see and will vote for the Brexit they say they want.DavidL said:Classic PB this morning. Those who want the deal to pass almost universally say that it is not going to. Those who want to remain almost universally think that May has done enough and it will pass. I want the deal to pass so, logically, I have my doubts.
Brexit will go from one massive first order issue to a series of smaller, boring, second and third order issues as we slowly thrash out the important but very tedious detail of our FTA: from fishing to banking to aviation to education blah blah; everyone will very happily yawn and switch over.0 -
If Tory Remainiacs, DUP and Tiggers vote against then even with Labour rebels I think it still fails.tlg86 said:If the ERG all support the deal, how sure are we that it will pass?
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The UK leaving the EU in any form whatever increases the chance of NI leaving the UK. The pressures pushing the whole island to be under the same system are bound to be intense, and the harder the Brexit the more that is true. An outcome with the UK remaining in the SM and CU will obviously minimise the pressures.TheKitchenCabinet said:
There is another factor for the DUP to consider here. Time and time again, polls have shown that, if push comes to shove, a majority of pro-Brexit voters would favour NI leaving the UK - which is the "cleanest" solution to the Backstop - than having to sign a deal they don't like. If the DUP vote for May's deal and there is the cry that Brexit has been betrayed, then the question of whether it is worthwhile having NI in the UK will be centre stage in politics.Scott_P said:
So the DUP will be looking to see what the ERG and their ilk do (not the other way round). If the ERG accept the deal, then that gives cover to the DUP.
Much the same is true for Scotland.
We have many more years of this stuff, in many forms whatever the outcome.
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Lawyers, including the AG, have opinions. Courts make decisions. In cases where the AG is party he sometimes wins and sometimes loses.DecrepitJohnL said:
Erm, wasn't it posted on this very pb a thread or two back?kle4 said:
How would this news have gotten out? Professionally and politically Cox would look a fool if it is true.Gallowgate said:0 -
For those wanting chaos, I think this is the outcome that delivers it.SandyRentool said:
If Tory Remainiacs, DUP and Tiggers vote against then even with Labour rebels I think it still fails.tlg86 said:If the ERG all support the deal, how sure are we that it will pass?
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If you want to see how low Labour have sunk, check the recent activity on this Corbynite Twitter account (she’s the prostitute that revealed the Osborne kink scandal)MarqueeMark said:
We can all switch over to watching Labour get pressed to death, as more and more cases of anti-semitism are loaded onto it moribund frame....SeanT said:
Disagree, on both counts. First, I suspect the Deal will fall, albeit narrowly. Second, if it DOES pass, that’s it: we will stop talking about Brexit in this maniacal and obsessive way. Yes it will be a grumbling issue in the background, like a small duodenal ulcer, but it won’t be the possible brain cancer with vicious associated migraines that it is today.Jonathan said:
It looks like they are lapping up the thin gruel like good little boys and girls, the deal will now pass and we will be in May’s limbo state and able to debate Brexit for years to come.SouthamObserver said:
I am very torn now. I have wanted the deal to pass because I thought the alternative was no deal. Now, though, it’s clear the alternative is Remain or Norway plus. My guess, though, is that the ERG and DUP can see what I see and will vote for the Brexit they say they want.DavidL said:Classic PB this morning. Those who want the deal to pass almost universally say that it is not going to. Those who want to remain almost universally think that May has done enough and it will pass. I want the deal to pass so, logically, I have my doubts.
Brexit will go from one massive first order issue to a series of smaller, boring, second and third order issues as we slowly thrash out the important but very tedious detail of our FTA: from fishing to banking to aviation to education blah blah; everyone will very happily yawn and switch over.
@RealNatalieRowe
I won’t link to the actual tweet she wrote, about Peter Mandelson, as it is clearly libellous, but it is quite extraordinary in its hatred - you won’t have to look hard to find it. And all the comments beneath are just mind-boggling. I thought Labour had been taken over by cranks, but it’s worse than that: they’ve actually been taken over by vile, abusive, lunatic cranks.0 -
I hope you’re right that Brexit will go away, but given how much is left up in the air I fear you are wrong.SeanT said:
Disagree, on both counts. First, I suspect the Deal will fall, albeit narrowly. Second, if it DOES pass, that’s it: we will stop talking about Brexit in this maniacal and obsessive way. Yes it will be a grumbling issue in the background, like a small duodenal ulcer, but it won’t be the possible brain cancer with vicious associated migraines that it is today.Jonathan said:
It looks like they are lapping up the thin gruel like good little boys and girls, the deal will now pass and we will be in May’s limbo state and able to debate Brexit for years to come.SouthamObserver said:
I am very torn now. I have wanted the deal to pass because I thought the alternative was no deal. Now, though, it’s clear the alternative is Remain or Norway plus. My guess, though, is that the ERG and DUP can see what I see and will vote for the Brexit they say they want.DavidL said:Classic PB this morning. Those who want the deal to pass almost universally say that it is not going to. Those who want to remain almost universally think that May has done enough and it will pass. I want the deal to pass so, logically, I have my doubts.
Brexit will go from one massive first order issue to a series of smaller, boring, second and third order issues as we slowly thrash out the important but very tedious detail of our FTA: from fishing to banking to aviation to education blah blah; everyone will very happily yawn and switch over.
Whatever the outcome today, for me it underlines why people’s view of politics is so bad. Presentation, spin and packaging are once again today taking precedent over understandable, meaningful things. It will hinge on a political forced legal opinion. We’ve been here before and have learned nothing from it.
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If the Deal fails again Remainers will really push extension and EUref2 hardBig_G_NorthWales said:
The remainers are all out in force while leavers arevmuch quieterHYUFD said:
For the sake of the country I hope the deal gets through and I would also predict real anger in the populace if the deal is taken down especially as labour will be seen acting purely in their own interests0 -
What time is the vote tonight?
I will miss it as I shall be enjoying the gentle swell of the English channel in a force 10 aboard Ventura.
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Say 20 MPs had flipped position before last night. I don't see how she gets the other 95: the DUP carry 50 including themselves, prior flips having reduced the DUP influence, Labour a dozen or so, Cox will be disbelieved and only carry a few. I fear, at best, the government goes down by 50 tonight.
Given I was a Remain, result accepting supporter of May's deal, as something that respected the Leave vote and its reasons to an extent I didn't think possible (or strictly necessary tbh), I think I comply with DavidL's rule here. I gave up on May's deal passing a few weeks ago, and reached a second referendum position.
It's funny how much the Centrist opinion on here was pro-deal and in a way that hasn't been reflected in parliament - who knows what Mr Tyndall's unwhipped house would have done with a stronger Flintite faction? It's also funny that many of us have been only a little faster to come round to a second referendum as Corbyn has.0 -
10 DUP, 11 TIG, 9 Continuity Remain, 243 Lab, 11 Lib Dem, 35 SNP, 4 Plaid, 1 Green is 324 vs 304 Con, and four independents. With Labour rebels, it would be very tight.SandyRentool said:
If Tory Remainiacs, DUP and Tiggers vote against then even with Labour rebels I think it still fails.tlg86 said:If the ERG all support the deal, how sure are we that it will pass?
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Nick Boles sounding unhinged? Must think the deal is likely to pass...HYUFD said:0 -
Is there anything more contemptible than an MP who wants the deal to pass, but won’t vote for it?0
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Why do people think DUP will vote against?0
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It seems untimely to mention it but a decent salesman could present being stuck in the backstop as Having Your Cake and Eating It. Which indeed it, to a certain extent would be. Mrs Thatcher would have found a way of celebrating it with a victory parade, her enemies being led triumphantly in chains before being eaten by lions.0
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So which safe Labour seat do you think Nick Boles will end up representing?HYUFD said:0 -
My favourite thing is that they seem to have taken ownership of that behaviour. Blocking people - good. Abusing people - good. Someone arguing with them - shows that that person has lost. Use of data? Cardinal sin.SeanT said:
If you want to see how low Labour have sunk, check the recent activity on this Corbynite Twitter account (she’s the prostitute that revealed the Osborne kink scandal)MarqueeMark said:
We can all switch over to watching Labour get pressed to death, as more and more cases of anti-semitism are loaded onto it moribund frame....SeanT said:
Disagree, on both counts. First, I suspect the Deal will fall, albeit narrowly. Second, if it DOES pass, that’s it: we will stop talking about Brexit in this maniacal and obsessive way. Yes it will be a grumbling issue in the background, like a small duodenal ulcer, but it won’t be the possible brain cancer with vicious associated migraines that it is today.Jonathan said:
It looks like they are lapping up the thin gruel like good little boys and girls, the deal will now pass and we will be in May’s limbo state and able to debate Brexit for years to come.SouthamObserver said:
I am very torn now. I have wanted the deal to pass because I thought the alternative was no deal. Now, though, it’s clear the alternative is Remain or Norway plus. My guess, though, is that the ERG and DUP can see what I see and will vote for the Brexit they say they want.DavidL said:Classic PB this morning. Those who want the deal to pass almost universally say that it is not going to. Those who want to remain almost universally think that May has done enough and it will pass. I want the deal to pass so, logically, I have my doubts.
Brexit will go from one massive first order issue to a series of smaller, boring, second and third order issues as we slowly thrash out the important but very tedious detail of our FTA: from fishing to banking to aviation to education blah blah; everyone will very happily yawn and switch over.
@RealNatalieRowe
I won’t link to the actual tweet she wrote, about Peter Mandelson, as it is clearly libellous, but it is quite extraordinary in its hatred - you won’t have to look hard to find it. And all the comments beneath are just mind-boggling. I thought Labour had been taken over by cranks, but it’s worse than that: they’ve actually been taken over by vile, abusive, lunatic cranks.
Anyway, let them carry on, on twitter, on here, wherever. It's such a good look.0 -
If the Deal does not pass tonight it’s Norway+ or Remain. No Deal is no longer an option. That’s why the deal will pass. I also think SeanT is spot on about where Brexit goes from here. It will become a largely secondary issue, except for the 15% of Leavers and 25% of Remainers who will feel utterly bereft and betrayed. Their votes will decide the next election.HYUFD said:
If the Deal fails again Remainers will really push extension and EUref2 hardBig_G_NorthWales said:
The remainers are all out in force while leavers arevmuch quieterHYUFD said:
For the sake of the country I hope the deal gets through and I would also predict real anger in the populace if the deal is taken down especially as labour will be seen acting purely in their own interests
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Although a committed Remainer I was for May's deal back in December, as the 'best of a bad job'.
Since then it has looked increasingly possible that Brexit could be legitimately* reveresed through a 2nd referendum.
So now I am torn, but tbh I will be content if May's deal goes through: it would end the possibility of No Deal chaos, keep our relations with the EU reasonably sweet, avoid giving Farage and co a platform at the EU elections.
So I am trying to be sanguine and see either outcome as ok. Deal passes = soft Brexit; Deal fails = probability of a 2nd ref and Remain.
(* I know most Leavers would not see a 2nd referendum as legitimate but if the HoC passed the legislation for one, I can't see how it would not be legitimate.)0 -
Because Nooo is the default option.Gallowgate said:Why do people think DUP will vote against?
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I largely agree on resonance, but a section of the Leave and Remain camps in the electorate will be bitterly disappointed. I suspect that means good news for Nigel Farage, UKIP, the Greens, the SNP and maybe even the LDs.SeanT said:
Disagree, on both counts. First, I suspect the Deal will fall, albeit narrowly. Second, if it DOES pass, that’s it: we will stop talking about Brexit in this maniacal and obsessive way. Yes it will be a grumbling issue in the background, like a small duodenal ulcer, but it won’t be the possible brain cancer with vicious associated migraines that it is today.Jonathan said:
It looks like they are lapping up the thin gruel like good little boys and girls, the deal will now pass and we will be in May’s limbo state and able to debate Brexit for years to come.SouthamObserver said:
I am very torn now. I have wanted the deal to pass because I thought the alternative was no deal. Now, though, it’s clear the alternative is Remain or Norway plus. My guess, though, is that the ERG and DUP can see what I see and will vote for the Brexit they say they want.DavidL said:Classic PB this morning. Those who want the deal to pass almost universally say that it is not going to. Those who want to remain almost universally think that May has done enough and it will pass. I want the deal to pass so, logically, I have my doubts.
Brexit will go from one massive first order issue to a series of smaller, boring, second and third order issues as we slowly thrash out the important but very tedious detail of our FTA: from fishing to banking to aviation to education blah blah; everyone will very happily yawn and switch over.
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That post is just one of a thread and needs to be read fully... the first one in the thread is more constructive.SouthamObserver said:
https://twitter.com/NickBoles/status/11053871474466365450 -
If Theresa May were phoning you up to tell you you'd won the Lottery jackpot she'd find a way to make you doubt it was a good thing.algarkirk said:It seems untimely to mention it but a decent salesman could present being stuck in the backstop as Having Your Cake and Eating It. Which indeed it, to a certain extent would be. Mrs Thatcher would have found a way of celebrating it with a victory parade, her enemies being led triumphantly in chains before being eaten by lions.
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It all depends on how many self - proclaimed Brexiters actually support Brexit.SouthamObserver said:
If the Deal does not pass tonight it’s Norway+ or Remain. No Deal is no longer an option. That’s why the deal will pass. I also think SeanT is spot on about where Brexit goes from here. It will become a largely secondary issue, except for the 15% of Leavers and 25% of Remainers who will feel utterly bereft and betrayed. Their votes will decide the next election.HYUFD said:
If the Deal fails again Remainers will really push extension and EUref2 hardBig_G_NorthWales said:
The remainers are all out in force while leavers arevmuch quieterHYUFD said:
For the sake of the country I hope the deal gets through and I would also predict real anger in the populace if the deal is taken down especially as labour will be seen acting purely in their own interests0 -
On the day that Tim Berners-Lee says Web is on a downward plunge.BannedInParis said:
My favourite thing is that they seem to have taken ownership of that behaviour. Blocking people - good. Abusing people - good. Someone arguing with them - shows that that person has lost. Use of data? Cardinal sin.SeanT said:
If you want to see how low Labour have sunk, check the recent activity on this Corbynite Twitter account (she’s the prostitute that revealed the Osborne kink scandal)MarqueeMark said:
We can all switch over to watching Labour get pressed to death, as more and more cases of anti-semitism are loaded onto it moribund frame....SeanT said:
Disagree, on both counts. First, I suspect the Deal will fall, albeit narrowly. Second, if it DOES pass, that’s it: we will stop talking about Brexit in this maniacal and obsessive way. Yes it will be a grumbling issue in the background, like a small duodenal ulcer, but it won’t be the possible brain cancer with vicious associated migraines that it is today.Jonathan said:
It looks like they are lapping up the thin gruel like good little boys and girls, the deal will now pass and we will be in May’s limbo state and able to debate Brexit for years to come.SouthamObserver said:
I am very torn now. I have wanted the deal to pass because I thought the alternative was no deal. Now, though, it’s clear the alternative is Remain or Norway plus. My guess, though, is that the ERG and DUP can see what I see and will vote for the Brexit they say they want.DavidL said:Classic PB this morning. Those who want the deal to pass almost universally say that it is not going to. Those who want to remain almost universally think that May has done enough and it will pass. I want the deal to pass so, logically, I have my doubts.
Brexit will go from one massive first order issue to a series of smaller, boring, second and third order issues as we slowly thrash out the important but very tedious detail of our FTA: from fishing to banking to aviation to education blah blah; everyone will very happily yawn and switch over.
@RealNatalieRowe
I won’t link to the actual tweet she wrote, about Peter Mandelson, as it is clearly libellous, but it is quite extraordinary in its hatred - you won’t have to look hard to find it. And all the comments beneath are just mind-boggling. I thought Labour had been taken over by cranks, but it’s worse than that: they’ve actually been taken over by vile, abusive, lunatic cranks.
Anyway, let them carry on, on twitter, on here, wherever. It's such a good look.0 -
It may be wishful thinking, but I firmly disagree. Even as a (reluctant) Leaver, I have to confess that Brexit has been a carnival of shyte. I thought it would as bad as having a baby, in the end it’s as bad as having a baby in a rolling yacht in a North Sea hurricane with a hungry pair of wolverines at the other end of the boat.algarkirk said:
The UK leaving the EU in any form whatever increases the chance of NI leaving the UK. The pressures pushing the whole island to be under the same system are bound to be intense, and the harder the Brexit the more that is true. An outcome with the UK remaining in the SM and CU will obviously minimise the pressures.TheKitchenCabinet said:
There is another factor for the DUP to consider here. Time and time again, polls have shown that, if push comes to shove, a majority of pro-Brexit voters would favour NI leaving the UK - which is the "cleanest" solution to the Backstop - than having to sign a deal they don't like. If the DUP vote for May's deal and there is the cry that Brexit has been betrayed, then the question of whether it is worthwhile having NI in the UK will be centre stage in politics.Scott_P said:
So the DUP will be looking to see what the ERG and their ilk do (not the other way round). If the ERG accept the deal, then that gives cover to the DUP.
Much the same is true for Scotland.
We have many more years of this stuff, in many forms whatever the outcome.
No one will want to go through something like this for a long long time. There won’t be any referendums, on anything serious, for ages. We are all mentally scarred. The UK will hang together because the alternatives are just too monumentally painful.0 -
I think the deal will pass, but not tonight - we are not quite at the 59th minute of the 11th hour.SouthamObserver said:
If the Deal does not pass tonight it’s Norway+ or Remain. No Deal is no longer an option. That’s why the deal will pass. I also think SeanT is spot on about where Brexit goes from here. It will become a largely secondary issue, except for the 15% of Leavers and 25% of Remainers who will feel utterly bereft and betrayed. Their votes will decide the next election.HYUFD said:
If the Deal fails again Remainers will really push extension and EUref2 hardBig_G_NorthWales said:
The remainers are all out in force while leavers arevmuch quieterHYUFD said:
For the sake of the country I hope the deal gets through and I would also predict real anger in the populace if the deal is taken down especially as labour will be seen acting purely in their own interests
Is the deal truly incompatible with Norway+? I'm not sure that we could not do a pivot or two on the PD.
I'm not sure what will decide the next election, though I think it's a banker that Labour cannot win it under extreme left leadership. What an election can't settle is the will of the nation when an important issue - in this case Brexit and all that - divides opinion into more than two serious options.
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You’re optimistic I fear given that the WA doesn’t really settle anything.SouthamObserver said:
If the Deal does not pass tonight it’s Norway+ or Remain. No Deal is no longer an option. That’s why the deal will pass. I also think SeanT is spot on about where Brexit goes from here. It will become a largely secondary issue, except for the 15% of Leavers and 25% of Remainers who will feel utterly bereft and betrayed. Their votes will decide the next election.HYUFD said:
If the Deal fails again Remainers will really push extension and EUref2 hardBig_G_NorthWales said:
The remainers are all out in force while leavers arevmuch quieterHYUFD said:
For the sake of the country I hope the deal gets through and I would also predict real anger in the populace if the deal is taken down especially as labour will be seen acting purely in their own interests
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Her political skills are non-existent, but even Harold Wilson would struggle with this lot.Benpointer said:
If Theresa May were phoning you up to tell you you'd won the Lottery jackpot she'd find a way to make you doubt it was a good thing.algarkirk said:It seems untimely to mention it but a decent salesman could present being stuck in the backstop as Having Your Cake and Eating It. Which indeed it, to a certain extent would be. Mrs Thatcher would have found a way of celebrating it with a victory parade, her enemies being led triumphantly in chains before being eaten by lions.
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I am a staunch Remainer but I want the deal to pass, in the perhaps vain hope that we might at least get some business certainty and be able to get on with our lives, and stop talking about this divisive and toxic shambles. Some deal - any deal - is likely to give London a bit of a bounce, which is much needed. We will find a way around the daft free labour movement rules in time, perhaps with regional visas. London always finds a way.0
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I'd be surprised if Geoffrey Cox didn't say something obliging for the Prime Minister (otherwise what would be the point?).0
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Liverpool Wavertree?Recidivist said:
So which safe Labour seat do you think Nick Boles will end up representing?HYUFD said:0 -
Here you go:AlastairMeeks said:I'd be surprised if Geoffrey Cox didn't say something obliging for the Prime Minister (otherwise what would be the point?).
https://twitter.com/geoffrey_cox/status/1105393787243778053?s=21
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I have no idea who this woman is but I have just had a look at the thread. She is explicitly inviting a libel suit.BannedInParis said:
My favourite thing is that they seem to have taken ownership of that behaviour. Blocking people - good. Abusing people - good. Someone arguing with them - shows that that person has lost. Use of data? Cardinal sin.SeanT said:
If you want to see how low Labour have sunk, check the recent activity on this Corbynite Twitter account (she’s the prostitute that revealed the Osborne kink scandal)MarqueeMark said:
We can all switch over to watching Labour get pressed to death, as more and more cases of anti-semitism are loaded onto it moribund frame....SeanT said:
Disagree, on both counts. First, I suspect the Deal will fall, albeit narrowly. Second, if it DOES pass, that’s it: we will stop talking about Brexit in this maniacal and obsessive way. Yes it will be a grumbling issue in the background, like a small duodenal ulcer, but it won’t be the possible brain cancer with vicious associated migraines that it is today.Jonathan said:
It looks like they are lapping up the thin gruel like good little boys and girls, the deal will now pass and we will be in May’s limbo state and able to debate Brexit for years to come.SouthamObserver said:
I am very torn now. I have wanted the deal to pass because I thought the alternative was no deal. Now, though, it’s clear the alternative is Remain or Norway plus. My guess, though, is that the ERG and DUP can see what I see and will vote for the Brexit they say they want.DavidL said:Classic PB this morning. Those who want the deal to pass almost universally say that it is not going to. Those who want to remain almost universally think that May has done enough and it will pass. I want the deal to pass so, logically, I have my doubts.
Brexit will go from one massive first order issue to a series of smaller, boring, second and third order issues as we slowly thrash out the important but very tedious detail of our FTA: from fishing to banking to aviation to education blah blah; everyone will very happily yawn and switch over.
@RealNatalieRowe
I won’t link to the actual tweet she wrote, about Peter Mandelson, as it is clearly libellous, but it is quite extraordinary in its hatred - you won’t have to look hard to find it. And all the comments beneath are just mind-boggling. I thought Labour had been taken over by cranks, but it’s worse than that: they’ve actually been taken over by vile, abusive, lunatic cranks.
Anyway, let them carry on, on twitter, on here, wherever. It's such a good look.
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So PBers. If you were in the HoC tonight, would you vote for or against the deal?0
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That is what I'm getting concerned about. I think they're safe personally (though not an expert) and they're travelling on a first world airline but if its grounded then what happens to her flight? She is travelling to see her parents who live overseas and has been looking forward to this trip for months if not years.Big_G_NorthWales said:
They could be banned worldwide by thenPhilip_Thompson said:
Getting concerned now. My wife and children are due to fly later this month (I cant go due to work obligations). I think it might be a 737 - 8 they're due to fly on.Big_G_NorthWales said:On other news. Australia joins Singapore in banning all 737 - 8 flights into their airspace and more countries to follow. There are 400 in service but for Boeing 5,000 on order
Big problem for Boeing0 -
I was referring to the thread. It sets out very clearly why any MP who genuinely wants to the Leave the EU has to back May’s deal. Any Tory MP not voting for it is not serious about leaving.Scrapheap_as_was said:
That post is just one of a thread and needs to be read fully... the first one in the thread is more constructive.SouthamObserver said:
https://twitter.com/NickBoles/status/1105387147446636545
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Political discourse in Britain has fallen a bit below the level of Periclean.
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I don't think that is the case. The big arguments about what Britain wants are still to come. Remember aftera nearly three years they will only have settled three issues that nominally the EU and UK both accept: on citizen rights, an open Irish border and severence payments.SouthamObserver said:
If the Deal does not pass tonight it’s Norway+ or Remain. No Deal is no longer an option. That’s why the deal will pass. I also think SeanT is spot on about where Brexit goes from here. It will become a largely secondary issue, except for the 15% of Leavers and 25% of Remainers who will feel utterly bereft and betrayed. Their votes will decide the next election.HYUFD said:
If the Deal fails again Remainers will really push extension and EUref2 hardBig_G_NorthWales said:
The remainers are all out in force while leavers arevmuch quieterHYUFD said:
For the sake of the country I hope the deal gets through and I would also predict real anger in the populace if the deal is taken down especially as labour will be seen acting purely in their own interests0 -
Of course he will.AlastairMeeks said:I'd be surprised if Geoffrey Cox didn't say something obliging for the Prime Minister (otherwise what would be the point?).
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Found in the replies to Nick Boles.
Brextremists aren't just fond of the British Empire, they also think the Galactic empire were the good guys:
https://twitter.com/No_Deal_Now/status/1105392144502718464?s=190 -
The fact the DUP have not instantly said no suggests that they may at least be minded to say yes - being awkward sods I do wonder if the delay is in them coming up with a price for their support, again.0
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I would have voted for it last time. The changes made overnight are essentially cosmetic, drawing out explicitly what was essentially implicit. So I would vote for it again this time.Jonathan said:So PBers. If you were in the HoC tonight, would you vote for or against the deal?
If it were rejected tonight, I would be shoulder to shoulder with Nick Boles on the subject.0 -
"Come ahead, if you think you're hard enough..."Scrapheap_as_was said:That post is just one of a thread and needs to be read fully... the first one in the thread is more constructive.
https://twitter.com/NickBoles/status/11053871474466365450 -
For. But then I would have done so on all the previous occasions as well.Jonathan said:So PBers. If you were in the HoC tonight, would you vote for or against the deal?
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Agreed. I also expect the campaign to rejoin to start the day after we Brexit (if we Brexit). It will have a fair number of ardent supporters and quite a bit of impetus. This may dissipate over time, depending on how the UK economy fares. If we struggle, or if the UK looks like breaking up, they may get their 2nd referendum within 5-10 years. If not, it’ll be 30 years, or never.SouthamObserver said:
I largely agree on resonance, but a section of the Leave and Remain camps in the electorate will be bitterly disappointed. I suspect that means good news for Nigel Farage, UKIP, the Greens, the SNP and maybe even the LDs.SeanT said:
Disagree, on both counts. First, I suspect the Deal will fall, albeit narrowly. Second, if it DOES pass, that’s it: we will stop talking about Brexit in this maniacal and obsessive way. Yes it will be a grumbling issue in the background, like a small duodenal ulcer, but it won’t be the possible brain cancer with vicious associated migraines that it is today.Jonathan said:
It looks like they are lapping up the thin gruel like good little boys and girls, the deal will now pass and we will be in May’s limbo state and able to debate Brexit for years to come.SouthamObserver said:
I am very torn now. I have wanted the deal to pass because I thought the alternative was no deal. Now, though, it’s clear the alternative is Remain or Norway plus. My guess, though, is that the ERG and DUP can see what I see and will vote for the Brexit they say they want.DavidL said:Classic PB this morning. Those who want the deal to pass almost universally say that it is not going to. Those who want to remain almost universally think that May has done enough and it will pass. I want the deal to pass so, logically, I have my doubts.
Brexit will go from one massive first order issue to a series of smaller, boring, second and third order issues as we slowly thrash out the important but very tedious detail of our FTA: from fishing to banking to aviation to education blah blah; everyone will very happily yawn and switch over.0 -
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I was referring to HYUFDs sole post... sorry if not clear.SouthamObserver said:
I was referring to the thread. It sets out very clearly why any MP who genuinely wants to the Leave the EU has to back May’s deal. Any Tory MP not voting for it is not serious about leaving.Scrapheap_as_was said:
That post is just one of a thread and needs to be read fully... the first one in the thread is more constructive.SouthamObserver said:
https://twitter.com/NickBoles/status/11053871474466365450 -
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To be fair, I gather the professional reputation of Ethiopian Airlines is very good. Lion of Indonesia less so, of course.Philip_Thompson said:
That is what I'm getting concerned about. I think they're safe personally (though not an expert) and they're travelling on a first world airline but if its grounded then what happens to her flight? She is travelling to see her parents who live overseas and has been looking forward to this trip for months if not years.Big_G_NorthWales said:
They could be banned worldwide by thenPhilip_Thompson said:
Getting concerned now. My wife and children are due to fly later this month (I cant go due to work obligations). I think it might be a 737 - 8 they're due to fly on.Big_G_NorthWales said:On other news. Australia joins Singapore in banning all 737 - 8 flights into their airspace and more countries to follow. There are 400 in service but for Boeing 5,000 on order
Big problem for Boeing0 -
Looks like we now know what is in his cod-piece!Recidivist said:
Political discourse in Britain has fallen a bit below the level of Periclean.0 -
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Anna Soubry is to address the LibDem Spring Conference, apparently.SeanT said:
Agreed. I also expect the campaign to rejoin to start the day after we Brexit (if we Brexit). It will have a fair number of ardent supporters and quite a bit of impetus. This may dissipate over time, depending on how the UK economy fares. If we struggle, or if the UK looks like breaking up, they may get their 2nd referendum within 5-10 years. If not, it’ll be 30 years, or never.SouthamObserver said:
I largely agree on resonance, but a section of the Leave and Remain camps in the electorate will be bitterly disappointed. I suspect that means good news for Nigel Farage, UKIP, the Greens, the SNP and maybe even the LDs.SeanT said:
Disagree, on both counts. First, I suspect the Deal will fall, albeit narrowly. Second, if it DOES pass, that’s it: we will stop talking about Brexit in this maniacal and obsessive way. Yes it will be a grumbling issue in the background, like a small duodenal ulcer, but it won’t be the possible brain cancer with vicious associated migraines that it is today.Jonathan said:
It looks like they are lapping up the thin gruel like good little boys and girls, the deal will now pass and we will be in May’s limbo state and able to debate Brexit for years to come.SouthamObserver said:
I am very torn now. I have wanted the deal to pass because I thought the alternative was no deal. Now, though, it’s clear the alternative is Remain or Norway plus. My guess, though, is that the ERG and DUP can see what I see and will vote for the Brexit they say they want.DavidL said:Classic PB this morning. Those who want the deal to pass almost universally say that it is not going to. Those who want to remain almost universally think that May has done enough and it will pass. I want the deal to pass so, logically, I have my doubts.
Brexit will go from one massive first order issue to a series of smaller, boring, second and third order issues as we slowly thrash out the important but very tedious detail of our FTA: from fishing to banking to aviation to education blah blah; everyone will very happily yawn and switch over.0 -
For me tonight may turn on the credibility of Geoffrey Cox QC, the man the EU were describing as a buffoon as recently as yesterday. Labour have called upon him to make a statement, the DUP have said that they will listen to him carefully as has David Davis.
I enjoy watching a craftsman at work. By being difficult at every stage, including when May wanted to accept some waffle on Friday, Cox has built himself up credibility which will allow a range of people coming from different perspectives to accept his judgment. If he is clear and persuasive today it might just be enough. It might not of course but to get it this close when you started off losing by 230 votes is an impressive achievement.
Brian Blessed with a law degree? Yeah, right.
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Tough one. Before yesterday it would have been For, for sure, because the alternative looked like No Deal. Now the alternative is Norway+ or Remain I’d be sorely tempted to vote against. However, Norway+ is still perfectly achievable after Brexit, so I guess I’d have to be a democrat - unless there was an amendment which would approve the deal subject to a referendum with Remain as the other option!Jonathan said:So PBers. If you were in the HoC tonight, would you vote for or against the deal?
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Against, I simply couldn’t put my name to it.Jonathan said:So PBers. If you were in the HoC tonight, would you vote for or against the deal?
In all probability it makes us worse off, reduces political independence compared to EU membership and has been forced upon us through the worst political tactics.
If she wants this, she can carry it in her name.0 -
UKIP home keeps its customers/audience happy.... and wants a bit more can kicking...
https://twitter.com/SamCoatesTimes/status/11053976782996439050 -
Until Boeing implements the software upgrade they are working on, I would not fly on one.Philip_Thompson said:
Getting concerned now. My wife and children are due to fly later this month (I cant go due to work obligations). I think it might be a 737 - 8 they're due to fly on.Big_G_NorthWales said:On other news. Australia joins Singapore in banning all 737 - 8 flights into their airspace and more countries to follow. There are 400 in service but for Boeing 5,000 on order
Big problem for Boeing
That probably won't be until next month at the earliest.0 -
Mr. Observer, that may be the crux of the matter. Anything that satisfies hardline Leavers may put off Remainers, and vice versa.
I was tempted by the 3.25 on the 200-249 seat band (backing the deal) on Ladbrokes, but decided against it. Difficult to tell now.0 -
Totally O/T but how in God name did this happen?
A Malaysia-bound plane had to turn back to Saudi Arabia after a passenger realised she had left her baby in the terminal.
From the Guardian.0 -
On balance, and just about: For. And I would have been Against previously.Jonathan said:So PBers. If you were in the HoC tonight, would you vote for or against the deal?
My mind hasn’t been changed by TMay’s addition of lipstick, on the pig, but by Richard Nabavi explaining to me that the pig isn’t all that bad, and besides, pig is all we’re going to get, and if we don’t accept the pig, we might get nothing and the country would possibly descend into rapine and despair.
So I am modestly in favour. Though no thanks to TMay who couldn’t sell a Christmas amnesty to turkeys.0 -
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It certainly doesn't reduce political independence. That is such a wild claim I simply can't see how you get there.Jonathan said:
Against, I simply couldn’t put my name to it.Jonathan said:So PBers. If you were in the HoC tonight, would you vote for or against the deal?
In all probability it makes us worse off, reduces political independence compared to EU membership and has been forced upon us through the worst political tactics.
If she wants this, she can carry it in her name.0 -
Indeed, closer to perineum, literally.Recidivist said:
Political discourse in Britain has fallen a bit below the level of Periclean.0 -
Or we will look back on this time as just being the prologue.SeanT said:
Disagree, on both counts. First, I suspect the Deal will fall, albeit narrowly. Second, if it DOES pass, that’s it: we will stop talking about Brexit in this maniacal and obsessive way. Yes it will be a grumbling issue in the background, like a small duodenal ulcer, but it won’t be the possible brain cancer with vicious associated migraines that it is today.
Brexit will go from one massive first order issue to a series of smaller, boring, second and third order issues as we slowly thrash out the important but very tedious detail of our FTA: from fishing to banking to aviation to education blah blah; everyone will very happily yawn and switch over.
The WA doesn't actually deliver anything other than a holding period for us and the EU to get on with actually negotiating what life will be like afterwards. It's a "You're out, but things don't change (much) for two years"
I'd expect a rerun of 2017-now, with the initial period being quieter until the papers realise nothing's changed, and then the entire focus, a year down the line, being "We must avoid having to activate the backstop!"
Companies (especially multinationals) complaining about uncertainty, as they don't know what the status will be after 2020.
Lots of arguments, more uncertainty, any downturn or loss of investment being trumpeted as "because of Brexit" and "because of uncertainty," impassioned disagreements over whether it was or was not down to Brexit (when in the majority of the cases it would have been one factor amongst others, with the prominence of that individual factor being arguable), then "will we extend the WA?" coming up, followed by the inevitable extension of it, rumours that the EU would let us back in on exactly the same terms if we asked, rumours that they'd insist on asset stripping us and bending over to be reamed if we asked to be let in, confusion from most international partners, further internal ructions on both the Big Two...
But, of course, I could just be overly pessimistic, and things could happen to be far smoother.
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