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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Now all eyes are on the DUP – if they’re happy then a deal mor
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Now all eyes are on the DUP – if they’re happy then a deal more likely
"In politics sometimes you get a second chance. It is what we do with this that counts, because there will be no third chance"
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Still got my concerns that the MV will fail again though, and where we go from there, who knows!
This is new, this is different. Its hilarious seeing Remain Ultras desperate to pretend nothing has changed now.
Ultimately, I think if we want to exit the backstop in years to come it will still be on the basis of the UK deciding to rip up the WA and walk away. But tonight's developments mean we will have some legal document with treaty like force to wave about to justify our actions. Which we didn't have 3 hours ago.
Coupled with it being "take it or leave it" time, I think this is going to pass.
For the first time in the past 3 years I now think we are actually going to leave the EU.
Sporting Index have a market up on the number of "ayes" on MV2 tomorrow, although market is currently suspended.
I suspect it will be volatile, for a while, once it opens/resumes. The distribution of outcomes is non-trivial right now; I would suggest it is bi- and possibly multi-modal.
I know there will be so much more aggravation to follow, years of it, but it is nice to think, for a moment, that whether one wants to remain or leave at least the question might be settled tomorrow. Thank you to the DUP for not killing it off right away, so I can take that thought with me as I go to rest.
Night all.
It's a shit Tory BREXIT then.
<300 ...... urrrgh. General election?
"It is in this spirit that today the prime minister and I have agreed on a joint legally binding instrument relating to the withdrawal agreement. This instrument provides meaningful clarifications and legal guarantees on the nature of the backstop."
I am imagining Nigel Dodds tucked up in his bed, laughing, as he has already decided what to do.
But he'll make us wait.
Night all.
I wonder how many other small business owners are waiting to hear...
Technical discussion of the Ethiopian air crash.
https://www.pprune.org/rumours-news/619272-ethiopian-airliner-down-africa-27.html
https://twitter.com/LeaveEUOfficial/status/1105251232241864704?s=20
On a more quotidian note, it will also improve the re-election prospects of the more than 5,000 Tory councillors up for election in May.
I don't think there is a hard Brexiteer amongst the DUP Westminster team in the mould of the ideologues within the Conservatives PP. .
We’ve always had the power to abrogate an international treaty; as has often been pointed out, it’s the fact that there are very big costs involved in doing so rather than ‘international law’ itself that prevent it happening.
Exiting unilaterally a treaty which we’ve warned we might leave before signing it - and had that warning acknowledged by the other party - could not possibly impact in our international credibility in the same way.
It might be legal flim flam, but it does seem effectively to deal with the ‘indefinitely trapped’ objection.
If they vote against then the chances of a second EU vote go up especially if the public start warming to the deal.
And no, I don't think it's significantly different from before, but a lot of Tory opponents didn't necessarily hate the deal, they just hated agreeing without having some apparent new element to embrace.
https://twitter.com/damiancollins/status/1105252157794717698?s=21
If there's an argument for letting it through, I guess it's that they'd rather not have to take the subsequent votes on the next step, which is where it gets harder to sit on the fence. But then it's better if other people vote it through, not you.
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/competition/10393583
Shall we just agree that we're talking about two different hypothetical groupings of Labour MPs, both of who will find different reasons to back the Deal later today?
I'm thinking Hoey/Stringer/Field etc, plus possibly Flint/Mann et al.
https://twitter.com/Peston/status/1105258420062613504
"A vote for the Brady amendment is a vote to see if the PM can land a deal that will work. If not then we are not committed."
Is it a deal that will work?
I believe enough on the Tory benches will think it is now adequate to stop buggering about, get on with Brexiting by the only route possible - and lean on Spreadsheet Phil to open his post-Brexit warchest.
FWIW, I also think enough on the Labour benches will realise that "Corbyn's Brexit" will be shown to be a dead unicorn. The EU would offer PM Corbyn nothing more than is in the WA. So what is the point of get in the way of it passing? Abstaining will do the job.
The interpretative document allows the UK to use the WA arbitration mechanism if it considers the EU to be stringing the backstop out indefinitely (para 12). If the arbitration is available on a mere consideration, then perhaps so would suspension under A60 of the Vienna Treaty. Ballsy move by the AG if he calls it that way.
Still hard to see what happens but I think May could be gone by the end of the week and any extension will be for a new leader to reset the negotiations . Would the EU agree to that and have to put up with more Tory infighting .
The purpose of this arbitration mechanism is to ensure that, if the EU is not sincerely attempting to implement the technical measures in the WA, then we can bring it to the attention of an independent body.
It is largely what I suggested a month ago. (Albeit I called it an independent body writing an annual report on progress.)
Now, there are sensible objections, and non-sensible ones.
The principle sensible objection is that it's not technical solutions - or lack thereof - that will keep NI in the backstop. It is that it will end up politically expedient. If 65% of the population in the province want to remain in the backstop, then in all probability Westminster will be unable to enforce it.
And the unsensible one: the independent body will shit on us.
Although maybe that is me misreading some in the ERG rather than a mistake, unlike last time where I was sure it would go down I'm not hugely confident of saying it will happen again.
If the Deal passes, there's unlikely to be a GE for a while, whereas one becomes likely in 2019 if it gets voted down again. So they can crash Brexit and the Government, or neither, but not one without the other. In that situation I think I'd be inclined to crash neither, but obviously I'm very far from being an opposition MP.