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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Tonight’s Brexit news on how Russia sought to influence the re
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Tonight’s Brexit news on how Russia sought to influence the referendum & YouGov on what voters think will happen
US Senate report on Russia's role during the UK referendum campaign
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And a possible first
Will any Cabinet Members finally throw in the towel if after the vote fails against next week May proposed to do nothing again? It's time to give up on Brexit - when even the Brexit purists don't want the Brexit that is on offer, just stop.
The report by Democrats on the Senate foreign relations committee, titled Putin’s asymmetric assault on democracy in Russia and Europe: implications for US national security, pinpoints the way in which UK campaign finance laws do not require disclosure of political donations if they are from “the beneficial owners of non-British companies that are incorporated in the EU and carry out business in the UK”.
This opacity, the report suggests, “may have enabled Russian-related money to be directed with insufficient scrutiny to various UK political actors”.
That is correct in a literal sense, but any company registered in the UK has (since June 2016) had to disclose the beneficial owner, through the 'People with Significant Control (PSC)' register (a provision dating from the 2010-2016 period when we had good government). The rules on that are very strict. Admittedly the timing leaves a window where in principle a donation related to influencing the referendum could have been made before the PSC declaration, changing the beneficial owner before the PSC declaration was made, but that would involve some very dodgy-looking acrobatics which would be obvious to any half-competent Guardian journalist looking at the lists of donors. At the very least it would be obvious that something was fishy.
Hates non zionist Jews Founded Migration Matters etc etc
Lest we forget, the US sought strongly to influence the result in accordance with its own stated geopolitical aims, or were they just acting as kindly and altruistic friends?
https://twitter.com/MacDazzaUK/status/1103783950428880896
Not sure of the immediate relevance.
But hey - its just a vast conspiracy against the saintly trots
You know the team that includes a potential home secretary that once said
“We are not interested in reforming … the police, armed services, judiciary and monarchy. We are about dismantling them and replacing them with our own machinery of class rule.”
Surely at the point of extension the Tories will need to find a new leader who can come up with a new plan for where we go next?
The creatures outside looked from Labour to Trump, and from Trump to Labour, and from Labour to Trump again; but already it was impossible to say which was which.
And now of course Brexit WILL happen by end of March! I hope it does.
I just don't think she has anything left at all.
Why should they trust that she can sell any deal at all?
And May telling the EU the deal will be voted down is just plain dumb. They know that. They think we'll cave eventually or remain, not without cause given the paroxysms of fear that parliament has about no deal. Unless May is dumber than she looks she knows they know that. So what does she think that will achieve?
Pretty pathetic if they cannot even get a new deal to vote on though. Sure, a new one would not sway enough unless it was a true capitulation from the EU, but at least something would allow them to argue it was not a total waste of time.
Why would the EU extend for simply more of the same?
But MPs can. MPs have said themselves what it will take to get a deal. Unfortunately MPs have given the EU two stark choices.
Option 1: Drop the backstop and the Deal can be ratified. No deal averted. Parliament has voted for this in principle already.
Option 2: Don't drop the backstop, the Deal will be rejected and an extension will be requested. No deal will be averted and the EU can demand what it likes as the price for an extension. Parliament has made it clear this is what will be done to avoid No Deal.
Given those 2 options, which will the EU go for I wonder? Hmmm ...
10th September 2001 is a good date.
What the EU wants is the deal ratified. The last thing the EU wants is No Deal. The second-last thing the EU wants is to compromise. The third-last the EU wants is this dragging on.
What the EU wants it can't get. Better to compromise than see no deal, but better to let this drag on than to compromise since we won't go to No Deal.
What the result of that general election would be... Who knows!
I do think a long extension is where we are headed though, and ultimately remain. Extension is the easiest option for people who don't want any of the biggest options - no deal, deal or referendum - and can be supported by some of those supporting those options as they can hope they will succeed as a result of it, so it is the only thing that will probably get a majority right now. But I struggle to see how leave gets stronger after being forced into a delay because the deal was so crap. It's an admission 2 years was wasted, which immediately begs the question why more time will help.
But what would be bad would be creating uncertainty around the Euro elections, so I'd expect them to insist on the deadline either being very short, so the next extension is decided or definitively off well in advance, or very long, so it's clear the UK needs to elect MEPs.
Question Time really is piss poor.
Or do you think this could have been done better?
If the former, more time is pointless. If the latter, more time gives us a do-over. Call this a Mulligan and try again.
The deal is rejected. A50 is extended. May resigns in failure. Con has a leadership election (that will be a total bloodbath by the way) with a fresh general election on a new plan in the Summer or Autumn looks the most likely scenario to me if her deal is voted down next week.
Only then would she resign as PM.... I mean we've not had a PM who just walked out the door and drove off into the sunset without anything being sorted out first since Eden.
https://vodplayer.parliamentlive.tv/?mid=8EC1E7D8-7D87-4C43-AD0E-0BDE384AF1C6&rsp=1508232600&msp=1508233354&audioOnly=FALSE&autoplay=True&dln=20171017_political_polling_and_digital_media_committee
Right now the attention is all on the meta-question of whether there should be a vote, but once you decide you're having the vote the attention all moves to the actual substantive question of Leave vs Remain, which the Tories now mostly agree with each other on.
Compared to the shitshambles we have...……..let me out of here.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=trV6WXwg6s4
It isn't going to happen.
The new editor of the Mail really is shit. A newspaper has rarely gone from readable to unreadable as quickly as this.
If there is an election there is a chance to break the impasse. Attitudes are hard now too because there's a lack of trust and time.
My proposal for a while has been to extend to what would have been the end of the transition and try to negotiate during that time, with a new leader. A new leader will be given space to try for something and the time will be there to talk properly. If it becomes clear it will be deal or no deal we can go for that by the end of what would have been the transition anyway.
But they're less keen on no deal, or compromising if they don't need to.
If they really wanted this over before the European Elections they could have compromised by now.
Do you want a) The current unsatisfactory state of affairs to continue or b) An alternative which is unattainable and won't deal with any of the problems with the current state of affairs that you don't like?
As your Government we'd like you to opt for A but in the event of you choosing B we will pretend to implement it so that we can say we have honoured your wishes.
Hmmmmmm……..
https://brexitcentral.com/deal-no-deal-heres-brexit-cannot-stopped/
It ain't gonna happen.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kNe8qK_-wUI
He's wrong on so many points.
Firstly we wouldn't have to negotiate with the EU to convert an extension into Remaining. If we decide to Remain we revoke end of story.
Secondly getting an extension agreed from the EU is unlikely to be difficult, though it won't be free probably. They've already all but said they're waiting for that request now.
Thirdly it won't be difficult to get an extension voted through by Parliament. In fact once they've done that on the 14th it's a formality quickly wrapped up.
If the last few months have taught us anything, it is that MPs are guaranteed NOT to hold their nerve!
By this time next week Parliament will have voted for an extension.