politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » With both CON and LAB having an interest in the Peterborough r
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » With both CON and LAB having an interest in the Peterborough recall petition then the chances are that it will succeed
The Commons Research department has just issued a new paper on how recall petitions actually work. This is now an integral part of the electoral process and there a strict rules for their operation, campaigning and spending limits.
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It's a real pity that Ian Paisley Jnr was not voted out.
https://twitter.com/OwenJones84/status/1103245284799377408
We've gone way beyond banana republic and are rapidly approaching failed state.
A Wacko Jacko theme park in Ulster?!?
Either that or your post was tongue-in-cheek, in which case sorry.
As long as said pug ape has ridden the goat or been baptized in the name of the Father and of the Son and of the Holy Spirit.
If say by the end of week 2 the 10% threshold is met, will that be announced and the petition closed or will it remain open and secret for another month?
What strikes me as likely to depress turnout is the 9-5 Mon-Fri hours. A very large proportion of the country is otherwise engaged Mon-Fri 9-5. That is one thing where we do very well with our Thursday voting is opening from early in the morning until 10pm.
It seems to me it'd be better to cut the period in half to say 3 weeks, but on Thursdays through those 3 weeks have the stations open from early in the morning until 10pm.
On the other hand this means a really unpopular MP could face a huge recall vote, but I think I'd like to see a daily updated total.
Is there a betting market on the percentage who will sign?
The police response was utterly utterly inadequate. The gangs realized that they had absolutely nothing to fear from the plod, they were poorly organized, poorly prepared and overall just f##king useless. On the other hand, it is well reported that the gangs organized and mobilized quickly, and for several days had free reign to commit crime.
Despite a few high profile cases, most people involved were never caught or punished.
These kids are now the ones running the gangs. If they had zero fear of the police were there were more of them and there was stop and search, they are going to give even less of a crap now or the likely potential punishment even if they were caught.
That seems to me to hold a major element of truth. Which makes me wonder what's changed since 2015. Its not like people are getting off their phones or bored of social media.
Perhaps the falling Police numbers etc would have caused a rise in crime previously but the rise of mobiles and social media were outweighing that impact, but now the impact of phones etc is 'priced in' and so no longer having an impact?
Rather than the perceived wisdom that if people are struggling they steal more etc, it is thought when most people are struggling they have less stuff worth stealing, buying less drugs etc etc etc.
When the economy is going well, more disposable income, people buy the latest greatest phone, out and about more wearing new trainers, clothes, jewellery, etc etc etc.
https://www.legislation.gov.uk/uksi/2016/295/contents/made.
124.—(1) A person must not, before the end of the last day of the signing period for a petition, publish—
(a)any statement relating to whether any person has signed the petition where that statement is (or might reasonably be taken to be) based on information given by that person; or
(b)any forecast as to the result of the petition which is (or might reasonably be taken to be) based on information so given.
(2) A person who contravenes paragraph (1) is liable on summary conviction to a fine or to imprisonment for a term not exceeding six months.
(3) In this regulation—
“forecast” includes estimate; and
“publish” means make available to the public at large, or any section of the public, in whatever form and by whatever means.
I think there's a parallel with New York in the 90's "broken windows" policy. A lot of low-level crimes have probably been stopped, which stops a number of people entering a circle or life of crime, which stops some higher level crimes. But it will never stop everything and the gangs can indeed use it as a weapon.
https://twitter.com/foxinsoxuk/status/978302412363624448?s=19
There is flexibility depending on the location used, but I would be surprised if there was not opening late at least one evening a week and during the day on Saturday.
Also, I think the homicide rate in this country is really quite low, so small variations can be made to appear more significant than they perhaps are.
Oh, and finally, since I'm on a roll here, I'm sure most homicides are committed by people known to the victim and would be unlikely to be affected by something like more coppers on the beat. (Not that I'm against more coppers, now that I am past my tear-away stage.)
With all the kids now have access to social media, especially Instagram, they see what all the new shiny stuff celebs and rich people have. Before people had that, their frame of reference was basically what your mates had, which was probably a pair of Air Jordans if they were really lucky.
Those running the gangs have said they use this to encourage kids to get involved. It is pushing on an open door, as the kids see all the stuff other people from around the world claim to have, and the gangs also show it off as things you can get if you join us.
1. What is the appropriate sanction for someone sharing, posting, expressing anti-semitic views? There seems to be no clear or consistent approach to this. But one is badly needed.
2. How to distinguish between legitimate criticism of Israel (not anti-semitic, clearly) and that which is. Again, Labour has no clear and consistent view on this and some of the cases that have come out appear to suggest that Labour appears to strain towards finding the use of anti-semitic tropes acceptable if it can be said, however tangentially, that the target is Israel. That is a particular problem because it implies that anti-semitic language is acceptable in certain circumstances and drives a very large coach and horses through a claim to be zero tolerant. It would be the equivalent of saying that personal abuse of Muslims is acceptable on the basis that one is criticising Islam - the Tmmy Robinson approach. IMO both are equally wrong.
3. Why is the Leader’s office involved in giving a view on possible sanctions. In a properly run disciplinary process, there should be an independent investigation report sent to an independent disciplinary panel, which comes to a view, based on clear policies. There should be no interference by anyone else. And there should be a right of appeal, again to an independent appeals body. So the disciplinary process seems flawed, liable to give rise to inconsistencies and liable to be full of actual or potential conflicts of interest.
It is a hell of a mess. Before Falconer or whoever can even start looking at cases, it seems to me that Labour’s entire investigative and disciplinary process needs tearing up and starting again. It does not seem to me to be fit for purpose. I doubt whether any of the people involved in it have any investigative experience at all or the independence of mind and character to do what can be - indeed pretty much always is if you do it properly - a tough job.
Ye Gods.
This is the crux of the issue with Labour isn't it. All parties will have people with dodgy views, antisemitc, Islamophobic, homophobic....however you don't expect the leadership of the party to be actively enabling this by arguing against their internal watchdogs that clearly disgusting shit is actually ok and/or lobbying against and massively delaying any punishment and quickly un-suspending people.
Will Smith 'casting as Richard Williams' sparks colourism debate
But Smith's reported casting in the film has angered critics, who say he is too light-skinned for the part.The actor has not yet commented on the reported casting or the criticism.
Colourism is a form of discrimination against dark-skinned people in favour of those with lighter skin from the same race.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-47468011
For example, PPI claims as a result of unemployment went sky high in 2008-9 (as you would expect), but there was also a (smaller) uptick in disability claims as well. Possibly stress related illness, possibly management finding imaginative ways to reduce headcount; possibly fraud; I never found out for certain. It's been observed with motor and household as well, although the factors there are different.
The US government's Centre for Disease Control says there are about 1.3 million illness from campylobacter and 1.2 million illnesses from salmonella a year, affecting about 0.4% of the population.
It's based on information from infection surveillance centres in 10 states. That sample is used to give an estimate for the whole country.
Across the UK in 2017, there were 63,946 confirmed cases of infection from campylobacter and 10,089 infections from salmonella, equating to 0.1% and 0.02% of the population respectively. Those figures are the actual number of confirmed reports around the UK, not estimates.
Do you give Corbyn, Formby, etc, another chance to create an independent process?
Why would you?
The factors seem to include:-
1. Prosperity (however some poor countries are very peaceful, and some relatively prosperous countries are very violent);
2. The honesty and efficiency of police forces and judicial systems;
3. Strength of family structures (East Asia is very peaceful, apart from the Philippines) regardless of levels of prosperity;
4. The drugs trade (see Latin America and the Caribbean. East Asians are utterly ruthless towards their own drug taffickers);
5. Age profiles (younger societies tend to be more violent).
But hold on, we were told it was a positive thing and that Idris Elder should be the next James Bond, because that would be progressive.
I think it's highly likely that the recall petition will succeed. As well as the point that Mike notes about the difference between Peterborough and North Antrim in terms of their marginality, perhaps even more relevant is that Onasanya has been kicked out of Labour, and both they and the Tories have pledged to actively campaign to remove her.
Just thinking about the timing, my reading is that the milestone events would be something like:
tomorrow(?): Speaker gives notice of the Recall Vote
21 March: Petition opens
2 May: Petition closes
3 May: Result announced as to whether the Recall Vote succeeded or not
June: by-election held (if Recall vote succeded).
My reading of the Recall Act is that there isn't an automatic trigger of a by-election as the vote merely vacates the seat; the writ for the by-election would still need to be moved as normal. Is that right?
https://www.amazon.co.uk/Dreamland-True-Americas-Opiate-Epidemic/dp/1620402505
The old joke that a criminal is just a lower class entrepreneur has a grain of truth.
All it needed was a short polite letter explaining that serious politics requires care and balance and that the nonsense she posted could cause great damage as well as offence - membership suspended, please reapply in five years time.
Scary stuff that these racist lunatics have taken over one of our main political parties.
Evidently not in this case, given the source of the image and given that Kayla Bibby was fully aware of the source.
Are we sure that this is comparing apples with apples?
Teenage criminals intrinsically are not people who think very far ahead!