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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The battle between LAB & CON viewed through the perspective of their leader’s approval ratings since GE2017
I have been meaning to compile this for sometime – how Corbyn and May compare with each other month by month based on the Opinium leader approval ratings. The pollster is the only one that asks this question in every survey it does for the Observer though the figures often don’t get reported.
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OT already. David Gauke's intimation this morning that we might delay Brexit used the phrase "smooth and orderly" twice, thus referencing the 2017 manifesto which used it four times.0
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FPT to RCS
I mean there will be no checks.rcs1000 said:
Do you mean there will be no customs checks or enforcement, like between France and Belgium, or there will be passport checks, like between Switzerland and France?Philip_Thompson said:There will be no need for a backstop as there will be no hard border in Ireland. That is why this is a ludicrous and obvious bluff.
Ireland has no intention to enforce the border even in a no deal scenario.
The UK has no intention to enforce the border even in a no deal scenario.
The EU has no ability to enforce the border even in a no deal scenario.
If a no deal scenario actually happens and the border remains open then it is the EU, not the UK or Ireland, with the biggest headache as far as Ireland is concerned. We and Ireland will be having our cake and eating it by not enforcing the border. That is why the EU is desperate to tie down the ludicrous backstop now.
If the bluff gets called then there's no need to deal with the border issue as its already not getting dealt with. Instead there's a need to fix the fact they have a gaping hole in their Single Market to a non-member. Which is best dealt with by a deal we can and will ratify - which means no backstop.
Only way a backstop remains after no deal is if the border gets enforced (won't happen) or we suffer so much we go back on bended knees desperate for anything (won't happen either).0 -
So the Irish government is only pretending it wants a backstop, and will actually be really really pleased if the EU takes it out of the Withdrawal Agreement?Philip_Thompson said:FPT to RCS
I mean there will be no checks.rcs1000 said:
Do you mean there will be no customs checks or enforcement, like between France and Belgium, or there will be passport checks, like between Switzerland and France?Philip_Thompson said:There will be no need for a backstop as there will be no hard border in Ireland. That is why this is a ludicrous and obvious bluff.
Ireland has no intention to enforce the border even in a no deal scenario.
The UK has no intention to enforce the border even in a no deal scenario.
The EU has no ability to enforce the border even in a no deal scenario.
If a no deal scenario actually happens and the border remains open then it is the EU, not the UK or Ireland, with the biggest headache as far as Ireland is concerned. We and Ireland will be having our cake and eating it by not enforcing the border. That is why the EU is desperate to tie down the ludicrous backstop now.0 -
Fourth like Boris0
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Interesting chart. So May is still not as popular (net) as Corbyn was in June/July 17?0
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No.Chris said:
So the Irish government is only pretending it wants a backstop, and will actually be really really pleased if the EU takes it out of the Withdrawal Agreement?Philip_Thompson said:FPT to RCS
I mean there will be no checks.rcs1000 said:
Do you mean there will be no customs checks or enforcement, like between France and Belgium, or there will be passport checks, like between Switzerland and France?Philip_Thompson said:There will be no need for a backstop as there will be no hard border in Ireland. That is why this is a ludicrous and obvious bluff.
Ireland has no intention to enforce the border even in a no deal scenario.
The UK has no intention to enforce the border even in a no deal scenario.
The EU has no ability to enforce the border even in a no deal scenario.
If a no deal scenario actually happens and the border remains open then it is the EU, not the UK or Ireland, with the biggest headache as far as Ireland is concerned. We and Ireland will be having our cake and eating it by not enforcing the border. That is why the EU is desperate to tie down the ludicrous backstop now.
Ireland doesn't want Brexit. It wants NI to remain bound as a member of the EU. However even if Brexit does happen then Ireland still won't enforce a hard border.0 -
You can determine their relative popularity and Corbyn in June/July 17 was relatively more popular than May is now.IanB2 said:
But the chart is popularity relative to each other, from which you cant determine either of their actual popularity scoresDavidL said:Interesting chart. So May is still not as popular (net) as Corbyn was in June/July 17?
Not since the country went daft over Bambi in 97 have we had a genuinely popular politician. We don't like any of them and for good reasons.0 -
This series I think is really only measuring how popular leaders are with their own parties and natural supporters, since neither leader attracts much cross party support.0
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You're saying Ireland _isn't_ pretending it wants a backstop? Ireland really does want a backstop?Philip_Thompson said:
No.Chris said:
So the Irish government is only pretending it wants a backstop, and will actually be really really pleased if the EU takes it out of the Withdrawal Agreement?Philip_Thompson said:FPT to RCS
I mean there will be no checks.rcs1000 said:
Do you mean there will be no customs checks or enforcement, like between France and Belgium, or there will be passport checks, like between Switzerland and France?Philip_Thompson said:There will be no need for a backstop as there will be no hard border in Ireland. That is why this is a ludicrous and obvious bluff.
Ireland has no intention to enforce the border even in a no deal scenario.
The UK has no intention to enforce the border even in a no deal scenario.
The EU has no ability to enforce the border even in a no deal scenario.
If a no deal scenario actually happens and the border remains open then it is the EU, not the UK or Ireland, with the biggest headache as far as Ireland is concerned. We and Ireland will be having our cake and eating it by not enforcing the border. That is why the EU is desperate to tie down the ludicrous backstop now.
Ireland doesn't want Brexit. It wants NI to remain bound as a member of the EU. However even if Brexit does happen then Ireland still won't enforce a hard border.0 -
Yes. 100%.Chris said:
You're saying Ireland _isn't_ pretending it wants a backstop? Ireland really does want a backstop?Philip_Thompson said:
No.Chris said:
So the Irish government is only pretending it wants a backstop, and will actually be really really pleased if the EU takes it out of the Withdrawal Agreement?Philip_Thompson said:FPT to RCS
I mean there will be no checks.rcs1000 said:
Do you mean there will be no customs checks or enforcement, like between France and Belgium, or there will be passport checks, like between Switzerland and France?Philip_Thompson said:There will be no need for a backstop as there will be no hard border in Ireland. That is why this is a ludicrous and obvious bluff.
Ireland has no intention to enforce the border even in a no deal scenario.
The UK has no intention to enforce the border even in a no deal scenario.
The EU has no ability to enforce the border even in a no deal scenario.
If a no deal scenario actually happens and the border remains open then it is the EU, not the UK or Ireland, with the biggest headache as far as Ireland is concerned. We and Ireland will be having our cake and eating it by not enforcing the border. That is why the EU is desperate to tie down the ludicrous backstop now.
Ireland doesn't want Brexit. It wants NI to remain bound as a member of the EU. However even if Brexit does happen then Ireland still won't enforce a hard border.0 -
I am not sure she is even that popular in her own household.DavidL said:
Hmm...you think May is currently popular in the Conservative party?rkrkrk said:This series I think is really only measuring how popular leaders are with their own parties and natural supporters, since neither leader attracts much cross party support.
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It wants a deadline by which it has to stop having its cake and eating it?Philip_Thompson said:
Yes. 100%.Chris said:
You're saying Ireland _isn't_ pretending it wants a backstop? Ireland really does want a backstop?Philip_Thompson said:
No.Chris said:
So the Irish government is only pretending it wants a backstop, and will actually be really really pleased if the EU takes it out of the Withdrawal Agreement?Philip_Thompson said:FPT to RCS
I mean there will be no checks.rcs1000 said:
Do you mean there will be no customs checks or enforcement, like between France and Belgium, or there will be passport checks, like between Switzerland and France?Philip_Thompson said:There will be no need for a backstop as there will be no hard border in Ireland. That is why this is a ludicrous and obvious bluff.
Ireland has no intention to enforce the border even in a no deal scenario.
The UK has no intention to enforce the border even in a no deal scenario.
The EU has no ability to enforce the border even in a no deal scenario.
If a no deal scenario actually happens and the border remains open then it is the EU, not the UK or Ireland, with the biggest headache as far as Ireland is concerned. We and Ireland will be having our cake and eating it by not enforcing the border. That is why the EU is desperate to tie down the ludicrous backstop now.
Ireland doesn't want Brexit. It wants NI to remain bound as a member of the EU. However even if Brexit does happen then Ireland still won't enforce a hard border.
Can't you ring up Mr Varadkar and explain all this to him, and then the whole problem will be solved?0 -
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Not sure why you would say that. Philip seems immensely supportive of her to me.FrancisUrquhart said:
I am not sure she is even that popular in her own household.DavidL said:
Hmm...you think May is currently popular in the Conservative party?rkrkrk said:This series I think is really only measuring how popular leaders are with their own parties and natural supporters, since neither leader attracts much cross party support.
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This is "orderly" in the sense of "person who puts your straitjacket on".DecrepitJohnL said:OT already. David Gauke's intimation this morning that we might delay Brexit used the phrase "smooth and orderly" twice, thus referencing the 2017 manifesto which used it four times.
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What choice will Ireland have? Without any immigration, customs and tariff agreements, border checkpoints will be needed where (some if not all) passports and goods are checked.Philip_Thompson said:
No.Chris said:
So the Irish government is only pretending it wants a backstop, and will actually be really really pleased if the EU takes it out of the Withdrawal Agreement?Philip_Thompson said:FPT to RCS
I mean there will be no checks.rcs1000 said:
Do you mean there will be no customs checks or enforcement, like between France and Belgium, or there will be passport checks, like between Switzerland and France?Philip_Thompson said:There will be no need for a backstop as there will be no hard border in Ireland. That is why this is a ludicrous and obvious bluff.
Ireland has no intention to enforce the border even in a no deal scenario.
The UK has no intention to enforce the border even in a no deal scenario.
The EU has no ability to enforce the border even in a no deal scenario.
If a no deal scenario actually happens and the border remains open then it is the EU, not the UK or Ireland, with the biggest headache as far as Ireland is concerned. We and Ireland will be having our cake and eating it by not enforcing the border. That is why the EU is desperate to tie down the ludicrous backstop now.
Ireland doesn't want Brexit. It wants NI to remain bound as a member of the EU. However even if Brexit does happen then Ireland still won't enforce a hard border.0 -
And your typical Labour Northern Leave seat would vote Labour even if the candidate was a half-dead baboon provided said baboon was wearing a Red Rosette.Scott_P said:0 -
Over the years there are a reasonable number that have been lost to the LibDems, including in Liverpool, Manchester, Stockport, Leeds, Bradford, Sheffield and Chesterfield.eek said:
And your typical Labour Northern Leave seat would vote Labour even if the candidate was a half-dead baboon provided said baboon was wearing a Red Rosette.Scott_P said:0 -
Jesus (Jaysus) H Christ will you please take some time to understand who will or won't erect a hard border in Northern Ireland.Philip_Thompson said:
No.Chris said:
So the Irish government is only pretending it wants a backstop, and will actually be really really pleased if the EU takes it out of the Withdrawal Agreement?Philip_Thompson said:FPT to RCS
I mean there will be no checks.rcs1000 said:
Do you mean there will be no customs checks or enforcement, like between France and Belgium, or there will be passport checks, like between Switzerland and France?Philip_Thompson said:There will be no need for a backstop as there will be no hard border in Ireland. That is why this is a ludicrous and obvious bluff.
Ireland has no intention to enforce the border even in a no deal scenario.
The UK has no intention to enforce the border even in a no deal scenario.
The EU has no ability to enforce the border even in a no deal scenario.
If a no deal scenario actually happens and the border remains open then it is the EU, not the UK or Ireland, with the biggest headache as far as Ireland is concerned. We and Ireland will be having our cake and eating it by not enforcing the border. That is why the EU is desperate to tie down the ludicrous backstop now.
Ireland doesn't want Brexit. It wants NI to remain bound as a member of the EU. However even if Brexit does happen then Ireland still won't enforce a hard border.0 -
To be fair, there are some Tory seats which fall into that category, too. Only the rosette would, of course, be blue. Rayleigh/Wickford for example.eek said:
And your typical Labour Northern Leave seat would vote Labour even if the candidate was a half-dead baboon provided said baboon was wearing a Red Rosette.Scott_P said:0 -
And if they point blank refuse to do so, then who is going to force the matter and how?Dadge said:
What choice will Ireland have? Without any immigration, customs and tariff agreements, border checkpoints will be needed where (some if not all) passports and goods are checked.Philip_Thompson said:
No.Chris said:
So the Irish government is only pretending it wants a backstop, and will actually be really really pleased if the EU takes it out of the Withdrawal Agreement?Philip_Thompson said:FPT to RCS
I mean there will be no checks.rcs1000 said:
Do you mean there will be no customs checks or enforcement, like between France and Belgium, or there will be passport checks, like between Switzerland and France?Philip_Thompson said:There will be no need for a backstop as there will be no hard border in Ireland. That is why this is a ludicrous and obvious bluff.
Ireland has no intention to enforce the border even in a no deal scenario.
The UK has no intention to enforce the border even in a no deal scenario.
The EU has no ability to enforce the border even in a no deal scenario.
If a no deal scenario actually happens and the border remains open then it is the EU, not the UK or Ireland, with the biggest headache as far as Ireland is concerned. We and Ireland will be having our cake and eating it by not enforcing the border. That is why the EU is desperate to tie down the ludicrous backstop now.
Ireland doesn't want Brexit. It wants NI to remain bound as a member of the EU. However even if Brexit does happen then Ireland still won't enforce a hard border.0 -
Nobody will. End of story.TOPPING said:
Jesus (Jaysus) H Christ will you please take some time to understand who will or won't erect a hard border in Northern Ireland.Philip_Thompson said:
No.Chris said:
So the Irish government is only pretending it wants a backstop, and will actually be really really pleased if the EU takes it out of the Withdrawal Agreement?Philip_Thompson said:FPT to RCS
I mean there will be no checks.rcs1000 said:
Do you mean there will be no customs checks or enforcement, like between France and Belgium, or there will be passport checks, like between Switzerland and France?Philip_Thompson said:There will be no need for a backstop as there will be no hard border in Ireland. That is why this is a ludicrous and obvious bluff.
Ireland has no intention to enforce the border even in a no deal scenario.
The UK has no intention to enforce the border even in a no deal scenario.
The EU has no ability to enforce the border even in a no deal scenario.
If a no deal scenario actually happens and the border remains open then it is the EU, not the UK or Ireland, with the biggest headache as far as Ireland is concerned. We and Ireland will be having our cake and eating it by not enforcing the border. That is why the EU is desperate to tie down the ludicrous backstop now.
Ireland doesn't want Brexit. It wants NI to remain bound as a member of the EU. However even if Brexit does happen then Ireland still won't enforce a hard border.0 -
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It doesn't want to be in a position where it is compelled to eat cake and have it too.Chris said:
It wants a deadline by which it has to stop having its cake and eating it?Philip_Thompson said:
Yes. 100%.Chris said:
You're saying Ireland _isn't_ pretending it wants a backstop? Ireland really does want a backstop?Philip_Thompson said:
No.Chris said:
So the Irish government is only pretending it wants a backstop, and will actually be really really pleased if the EU takes it out of the Withdrawal Agreement?Philip_Thompson said:FPT to RCS
I mean there will be no checks.rcs1000 said:
Do you mean there will be no customs checks or enforcement, like between France and Belgium, or there will be passport checks, like between Switzerland and France?Philip_Thompson said:There will be no need for a backstop as there will be no hard border in Ireland. That is why this is a ludicrous and obvious bluff.
Ireland has no intention to enforce the border even in a no deal scenario.
The UK has no intention to enforce the border even in a no deal scenario.
The EU has no ability to enforce the border even in a no deal scenario.
If a no deal scenario actually happens and the border remains open then it is the EU, not the UK or Ireland, with the biggest headache as far as Ireland is concerned. We and Ireland will be having our cake and eating it by not enforcing the border. That is why the EU is desperate to tie down the ludicrous backstop now.
Ireland doesn't want Brexit. It wants NI to remain bound as a member of the EU. However even if Brexit does happen then Ireland still won't enforce a hard border.
Can't you ring up Mr Varadkar and explain all this to him, and then the whole problem will be solved?0 -
Or looking at it another way, a position where it is compelled to choose between having a hard border with Northern Ireland and breaking its treaty obligations to the European Union?Philip_Thompson said:
It doesn't want to be in a position where it is compelled to eat cake and have it too.Chris said:
It wants a deadline by which it has to stop having its cake and eating it?Philip_Thompson said:
Yes. 100%.Chris said:
You're saying Ireland _isn't_ pretending it wants a backstop? Ireland really does want a backstop?Philip_Thompson said:
No.Chris said:
So the Irish government is only pretending it wants a backstop, and will actually be really really pleased if the EU takes it out of the Withdrawal Agreement?Philip_Thompson said:FPT to RCS
I mean there will be no checks.rcs1000 said:
Do you mean there will be no customs checks or enforcement, like between France and Belgium, or there will be passport checks, like between Switzerland and France?Philip_Thompson said:There will be no need for a backstop as there will be no hard border in Ireland. That is why this is a ludicrous and obvious bluff.
Ireland has no intention to enforce the border even in a no deal scenario.
The UK has no intention to enforce the border even in a no deal scenario.
The EU has no ability to enforce the border even in a no deal scenario.
If a no deal scenario actually happens and the border remains open then it is the EU, not the UK or Ireland, with the biggest headache as far as Ireland is concerned. We and Ireland will be having our cake and eating it by not enforcing the border. That is why the EU is desperate to tie down the ludicrous backstop now.
Ireland doesn't want Brexit. It wants NI to remain bound as a member of the EU. However even if Brexit does happen then Ireland still won't enforce a hard border.
Can't you ring up Mr Varadkar and explain all this to him, and then the whole problem will be solved?
That would certainly make Ireland's position more comprehensible than your cake metaphor.0 -
Same thing. The whole cake metaphor has been invoked all along this process to mean that.Chris said:
Or looking at it another way, a position where it is compelled to choose between having a hard border with Northern Ireland and breaking its treaty obligations to the European Union?Philip_Thompson said:
It doesn't want to be in a position where it is compelled to eat cake and have it too.Chris said:
It wants a deadline by which it has to stop having its cake and eating it?Philip_Thompson said:
Yes. 100%.Chris said:
You're saying Ireland _isn't_ pretending it wants a backstop? Ireland really does want a backstop?Philip_Thompson said:
No.Chris said:
So the Irish government is only pretending it wants a backstop, and will actually be really really pleased if the EU takes it out of the Withdrawal Agreement?Philip_Thompson said:FPT to RCS
I mean there will be no checks.rcs1000 said:
Do you mean there will be no customs checks or enforcement, like between France and Belgium, or there will be passport checks, like between Switzerland and France?Philip_Thompson said:There will be no need for a backstop as there will be no hard border in Ireland. That is why this is a ludicrous and obvious bluff.
Ireland has no intention to enforce the border even in a no deal scenario.
The UK has no intention to enforce the border even in a no deal scenario.
The EU has no ability to enforce the border even in a no deal scenario.
If a no deal scenario actually happens and the border remains open then it is the EU, not the UK or Ireland, with the biggest headache as far as Ireland is concerned. We and Ireland will be having our cake and eating it by not enforcing the border. That is why the EU is desperate to tie down the ludicrous backstop now.
Ireland doesn't want Brexit. It wants NI to remain bound as a member of the EU. However even if Brexit does happen then Ireland still won't enforce a hard border.
Can't you ring up Mr Varadkar and explain all this to him, and then the whole problem will be solved?
That would certainly make Ireland's position more comprehensible than your cake metaphor.
But if a no deal scenario happens then Ireland will break its obligations before it erects a border. If the UK doesn't come to heel then the only way to get out of the mess will be a deal which means no backstop.0 -
Guten Abend, meine Freunde.0
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That's a big lead for May over Corbyn. Bet she's itching to call a general election. Because just imagine if you can the deep and intensely personal sense of redemption, vindication, potency, triumph and euphoria with which her entire being would be suffused if she does so and wins an overall majority of, say, 50 seats. Imagine her at Tory HQ the morning after being cheered to the rafters and given the bumps by hordes of delirious shiny-eyed activists almost as if she were a winning FA Cup final manager. Perhaps you can't imagine it, but I assure you that she can. She thinks of little else. Keeps it secret no doubt, probably not even told hubby, but she is obsessed with the idea. Snap election to break the impasse on the deal. This is why she isn't trying that hard to get it through. In fact she is not trying at all, she's only pretending to. She likes the impasse. She wants to be forced to call a general election. Well, sorry but the secret's out now. We all know what her little game is. She is BUSTED.0
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I agree that the Irish are not going to put up any barriers when we go to No Deal. They would be mad to. But that is not going to help the UK.Philip_Thompson said:
Same thing. The whole cake metaphor has been invoked all along this process to mean that.Chris said:
Or looking at it another way, a position where it is compelled to choose between having a hard border with Northern Ireland and breaking its treaty obligations to the European Union?Philip_Thompson said:
It doesn't want to be in a position where it is compelled to eat cake and have it too.Chris said:
It wants a deadline by which it has to stop having its cake and eating it?Philip_Thompson said:
Yes. 100%.Chris said:
You're saying Ireland _isn't_ pretending it wants a backstop? Ireland really does want a backstop?Philip_Thompson said:
No.Chris said:
So the Irish government is only pretending it wants a backstop, and will actually be really really pleased if the EU takes it out of the Withdrawal Agreement?Philip_Thompson said:FPT to RCS
I mean there will be no checks.rcs1000 said:
Do you mean there will be no customs checks or enforcement, like between France and Belgium, or there will be passport checks, like between Switzerland and France?Philip_Thompson said:There will be no need for a backstop as there will be no hard border in Ireland. That is why this is a ludicrous and obvious bluff.
Ireland has no intention to enforce the border even in a no deal scenario.
The UK has no intention to enforce the border even in a no deal scenario.
The EU has no ability to enforce the border even in a no deal scenario.
If a no deal scenario actually happens and the border remains open then it is the EU, not the UK or Ireland, with the biggest headache as far as Ireland is concerned. We and Ireland will be having our cake and eating it by not enforcing the border. That is why the EU is desperate to tie down the ludicrous backstop now.
Ireland doesn't want Brexit. It wants NI to remain bound as a member of the EU. However even if Brexit does happen then Ireland still won't enforce a hard border.
Can't you ring up Mr Varadkar and explain all this to him, and then the whole problem will be solved?
That would certainly make Ireland's position more comprehensible than your cake metaphor.
But if a no deal scenario happens then Ireland will break its obligations before it erects a border. If the UK doesn't come to heel then the only way to get out of the mess will be a deal which means no backstop.
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Of course, there is a very simple solution to the backstop issue. Ask the people of Northern Ireland whether they are OK with it applying just to them. The reason this is not going to happen is because they will supply the wrong answer: Yes.0
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Help! To the accountants and business owners on here:
Does anyone know how long it takes to get a certificate of tax residency for a limited company?
Bloody Indian bureaucracy screwing up my cash flow...0 -
Boro has always been a labour seat, and Stockton South is in many ways a North Yorkshire seat.notme2 said:
Assuming you actually mean Redcar than 2010 was a very poorly timed election locally (with the closure of the steelworks) and it returned to Labour in 2015...0 -
You may be onto something there. I would similarly love to play up front for Everton and score a hat trick in a Mersey Derby.kinabalu said:That's a big lead for May over Corbyn. Bet she's itching to call a general election. Because just imagine if you can the deep and intensely personal sense of redemption, vindication, potency, triumph and euphoria with which her entire being would be suffused if she does so and wins an overall majority of, say, 50 seats. Imagine her at Tory HQ the morning after being cheered to the rafters and given the bumps by hordes of delirious shiny-eyed activists almost as if she were a winning FA Cup final manager. Perhaps you can't imagine it, but I assure you that she can. She thinks of little else. Keeps it secret no doubt, probably not even told hubby, but she is obsessed with the idea. Snap election to break the impasse on the deal. This is why she isn't trying that hard to get it through. In fact she is not trying at all, she's only pretending to. She likes the impasse. She wants to be forced to call a general election. Well, sorry but the secret's out now. We all know what her little game is. She is BUSTED.
Fortunately, saner forces are preventing me having a go.0 -
The EU will if we no deal. They will have no choice. I think this game of chicken is very dangerous because in both deal and no deal the EU have to agree a solution for the borderPhilip_Thompson said:
Nobody will. End of story.TOPPING said:
Jesus (Jaysus) H Christ will you please take some time to understand who will or won't erect a hard border in Northern Ireland.Philip_Thompson said:
No.Chris said:
So the Irish government is only pretending it wants a backstop, and will actually be really really pleased if the EU takes it out of the Withdrawal Agreement?Philip_Thompson said:FPT to RCS
I mean there will be no checks.rcs1000 said:
Do you mean there will be no customs checks or enforcement, like between France and Belgium, or there will be passport checks, like between Switzerland and France?Philip_Thompson said:There will be no need for a backstop as there will be no hard border in Ireland. That is why this is a ludicrous and obvious bluff.
Ireland has no intention to enforce the border even in a no deal scenario.
The UK has no intention to enforce the border even in a no deal scenario.
The EU has no ability to enforce the border even in a no deal scenario.
If a no deal scenario actually happens and the border remains open then it is the EU, not the UK or Ireland, with the biggest headache as far as Ireland is concerned. We and Ireland will be having our cake and eating it by not enforcing the border. That is why the EU is desperate to tie down the ludicrous backstop now.
Ireland doesn't want Brexit. It wants NI to remain bound as a member of the EU. However even if Brexit does happen then Ireland still won't enforce a hard border.
And I do not support ERG at all, in case I am accused, as I was yesterday believe or not, of being a hard brexiteer0 -
I assume that the EU would take Ireland to court since it would be in breach of its responsibilities. It would probably also be necessary to instigate checks of goods and people from Ireland to the rest of the EU.Philip_Thompson said:
And if they point blank refuse to do so, then who is going to force the matter and how?Dadge said:
What choice will Ireland have? Without any immigration, customs and tariff agreements, border checkpoints will be needed where (some if not all) passports and goods are checked.Philip_Thompson said:
No.Chris said:
So the Irish government is only pretending it wants a backstop, and will actually be really really pleased if the EU takes it out of the Withdrawal Agreement?Philip_Thompson said:FPT to RCS
I mean there will be no checks.rcs1000 said:
Do you mean there will be no customs checks or enforcement, like between France and Belgium, or there will be passport checks, like between Switzerland and France?Philip_Thompson said:There will be no need for a backstop as there will be no hard border in Ireland. That is why this is a ludicrous and obvious bluff.
Ireland has no intention to enforce the border even in a no deal scenario.
The UK has no intention to enforce the border even in a no deal scenario.
The EU has no ability to enforce the border even in a no deal scenario.
If a no deal scenario actually happens and the border remains open then it is the EU, not the UK or Ireland, with the biggest headache as far as Ireland is concerned. We and Ireland will be having our cake and eating it by not enforcing the border. That is why the EU is desperate to tie down the ludicrous backstop now.
Ireland doesn't want Brexit. It wants NI to remain bound as a member of the EU. However even if Brexit does happen then Ireland still won't enforce a hard border.0 -
I think he means Boro S and Cleveland East. Which is a relatively small bit of Boro, and a rather larger bit of rural area similar politically to N Yorkshire.eek said:
Boro has always been a labour seat, and Stockton South is in many ways a North Yorkshire seat.notme2 said:
Assuming you actually mean Redcar than 2010 was a very poorly timed election locally (with the closure of the steelworks) and it returned to Labour in 2015...0 -
Yes, that is the big difference. She can pick herself regardless of ability or form.dixiedean said:You may be onto something there. I would similarly love to play up front for Everton and score a hat trick in a Mersey Derby.
Fortunately, saner forces are preventing me having a go.0 -
This is a good point that journalists skirt over. The DUP is holding us all to ransom.SouthamObserver said:Of course, there is a very simple solution to the backstop issue. Ask the people of Northern Ireland whether they are OK with it applying just to them. The reason this is not going to happen is because they will supply the wrong answer: Yes.
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With respect you do seem to be willing a GE but it is not in TM power to call one. The cabinet would not support it and nor would her mps, and without them you cannot get 434 mps to vote for dissolutionkinabalu said:That's a big lead for May over Corbyn. Bet she's itching to call a general election. Because just imagine if you can the deep and intensely personal sense of redemption, vindication, potency, triumph and euphoria with which her entire being would be suffused if she does so and wins an overall majority of, say, 50 seats. Imagine her at Tory HQ the morning after being cheered to the rafters and given the bumps by hordes of delirious shiny-eyed activists almost as if she were a winning FA Cup final manager. Perhaps you can't imagine it, but I assure you that she can. She thinks of little else. Keeps it secret no doubt, probably not even told hubby, but she is obsessed with the idea. Snap election to break the impasse on the deal. This is why she isn't trying that hard to get it through. In fact she is not trying at all, she's only pretending to. She likes the impasse. She wants to be forced to call a general election. Well, sorry but the secret's out now. We all know what her little game is. She is BUSTED.
0 -
Lol! Don't take it to heart, Big G. We're all called some odd things on here from time to time. I was once referred to as a 'right-wing Cockney'. Moi!Big_G_NorthWales said:
The EU will if we no deal. They will have no choice. I think this game of chicken is very dangerous because in both deal and no deal the EU have to agree a solution for the borderPhilip_Thompson said:
Nobody will. End of story.TOPPING said:
Jesus (Jaysus) H Christ will you please take some time to understand who will or won't erect a hard border in Northern Ireland.Philip_Thompson said:
No.Chris said:
So the Irish government is only pretending it wants a backstop, and will actually be really really pleased if the EU takes it out of the Withdrawal Agreement?Philip_Thompson said:FPT to RCS
I mean there will be no checks.rcs1000 said:
Do you mean there will be no customs checks or enforcement, like between France and Belgium, or there will be passport checks, like between Switzerland and France?Philip_Thompson said:There will be no need for a backstop as there will be no hard border in Ireland. That is why this is a ludicrous and obvious bluff.
Ireland has no intention to enforce the border even in a no deal scenario.
The UK has no intention to enforce the border even in a no deal scenario.
The EU has no ability to enforce the border even in a no deal scenario.
If a no deal scenario actually happens and the border remains open then it is the EU, not the UK or Ireland, with the biggest headache as far as Ireland is concerned. We and Ireland will be having our cake and eating it by not enforcing the border. That is why the EU is desperate to tie down the ludicrous backstop now.
Ireland doesn't want Brexit. It wants NI to remain bound as a member of the EU. However even if Brexit does happen then Ireland still won't enforce a hard border.
And I do not support ERG at all, in case I am accused, as I was yesterday believe or not, of being a hard brexiteer0 -
And I suspect the end result of that ransom will be a border vote and a united Ireland. The DUP are sadly not bright enough to see that consequence...Dadge said:
This is a good point that journalists skirt over. The DUP is holding us all to ransom.SouthamObserver said:Of course, there is a very simple solution to the backstop issue. Ask the people of Northern Ireland whether they are OK with it applying just to them. The reason this is not going to happen is because they will supply the wrong answer: Yes.
0 -
Taking Ireland to court will take longer than it takes the UK to come back to the table to ask for a deal. As for checks, they are going to be happening anyway given that most Irish goods are exported to the EU via the UK.Dadge said:
I assume that the EU would take Ireland to court since it would be in breach of its responsibilities. It would probably also be necessary to instigate checks of goods and people from Ireland to the rest of the EU.Philip_Thompson said:
And if they point blank refuse to do so, then who is going to force the matter and how?Dadge said:
What choice will Ireland have? Without any immigration, customs and tariff agreements, border checkpoints will be needed where (some if not all) passports and goods are checked.Philip_Thompson said:
No.Chris said:
So the Irish government is only pretending it wants a backstop, and will actually be really really pleased if the EU takes it out of the Withdrawal Agreement?Philip_Thompson said:FPT to RCS
I mean there will be no checks.rcs1000 said:
Do you mean there will be no customs checks or enforcement, like between France and Belgium, or there will be passport checks, like between Switzerland and France?Philip_Thompson said:There will be no need for a backstop as there will be no hard border in Ireland. That is why this is a ludicrous and obvious bluff.
Ireland has no intention to enforce the border even in a no deal scenario.
The UK has no intention to enforce the border even in a no deal scenario.
The EU has no ability to enforce the border even in a no deal scenario.
If a no deal scenario actually happens and the border remains open then it is the EU, not the UK or Ireland, with the biggest headache as far as Ireland is concerned. We and Ireland will be having our cake and eating it by not enforcing the border. That is why the EU is desperate to tie down the ludicrous backstop now.
Ireland doesn't want Brexit. It wants NI to remain bound as a member of the EU. However even if Brexit does happen then Ireland still won't enforce a hard border.
0 -
But didn't you do that once, Mr Dean?dixiedean said:
You may be onto something there. I would similarly love to play up front for Everton and score a hat trick in a Mersey Derby.kinabalu said:That's a big lead for May over Corbyn. Bet she's itching to call a general election. Because just imagine if you can the deep and intensely personal sense of redemption, vindication, potency, triumph and euphoria with which her entire being would be suffused if she does so and wins an overall majority of, say, 50 seats. Imagine her at Tory HQ the morning after being cheered to the rafters and given the bumps by hordes of delirious shiny-eyed activists almost as if she were a winning FA Cup final manager. Perhaps you can't imagine it, but I assure you that she can. She thinks of little else. Keeps it secret no doubt, probably not even told hubby, but she is obsessed with the idea. Snap election to break the impasse on the deal. This is why she isn't trying that hard to get it through. In fact she is not trying at all, she's only pretending to. She likes the impasse. She wants to be forced to call a general election. Well, sorry but the secret's out now. We all know what her little game is. She is BUSTED.
Fortunately, saner forces are preventing me having a go.
Wait a minute, you're not the real Dixie Dean....? Pshah!0 -
They are. Or their influence is perniciously disproportionate let's just say that.Dadge said:This is a good point that journalists skirt over. The DUP is holding us all to ransom.
One of the (IMO many) strong arguments for a general election sooner rather than later is that there is a good chance of this situation being rectified.0 -
And even the Boro bits are posher than the other parts...dixiedean said:
I think he means Boro S and Cleveland East. Which is a relatively small bit of Boro, and a rather larger bit of rural area similar politically to N Yorkshire.eek said:
Boro has always been a labour seat, and Stockton South is in many ways a North Yorkshire seat.notme2 said:
Assuming you actually mean Redcar than 2010 was a very poorly timed election locally (with the closure of the steelworks) and it returned to Labour in 2015...0 -
This is very naive. If what you say is true, May and co would not have wasted any time on the border issue. If we leave without a deal, there will be chaos at the border. Not overnight, but the EU (and to a lesser extent the UK) will act over the summer to plug the hole.SouthamObserver said:
I agree that the Irish are not going to put up any barriers when we go to No Deal. They would be mad to. But that is not going to help the UK.Philip_Thompson said:
Same thing. The whole cake metaphor has been invoked all along this process to mean that.Chris said:
Or looking at it another way, a position where it is compelled to choose between having a hard border with Northern Ireland and breaking its treaty obligations to the European Union?Philip_Thompson said:
It doesn't want to be in a position where it is compelled to eat cake and have it too.Chris said:
It wants a deadline by which it has to stop having its cake and eating it?Philip_Thompson said:
Yes. 100%.Chris said:
You're saying Ireland _isn't_ pretending it wants a backstop? Ireland really does want a backstop?Philip_Thompson said:
No.Chris said:
So the Irish government is only pretending it wants a backstop, and will actually be really really pleased if the EU takes it out of the Withdrawal Agreement?Philip_Thompson said:
I mean there will be no checks.
Ireland has no intention to enforce the border even in a no deal scenario.
The UK has no intention to enforce the border even in a no deal scenario.
The EU has no ability to enforce the border even in a no deal scenario.
If a no deal scenario actually happens and the border remains open then it is the EU, not the UK or Ireland, with the biggest headache as far as Ireland is concerned. We and Ireland will be having our cake and eating it by not enforcing the border. That is why the EU is desperate to tie down the ludicrous backstop now.
Ireland doesn't want Brexit. It wants NI to remain bound as a member of the EU. However even if Brexit does happen then Ireland still won't enforce a hard border.
Can't you ring up Mr Varadkar and explain all this to him, and then the whole problem will be solved?
That would certainly make Ireland's position more comprehensible than your cake metaphor.
But if a no deal scenario happens then Ireland will break its obligations before it erects a border. If the UK doesn't come to heel then the only way to get out of the mess will be a deal which means no backstop.0 -
It won’t get to the summer. For Ireland no deal really is better than a bad deal.Dadge said:
This is very naive. If what you say is true, May and co would not have wasted any time on the border issue. If we leave without a deal, there will be chaos at the border. Not overnight, but the EU (and to a lesser extent the UK) will act over the summer to plug the hole.SouthamObserver said:
I agree that the Irish are not going to put up any barriers when we go to No Deal. They would be mad to. But that is not going to help the UK.Philip_Thompson said:
Same thing. The whole cake metaphor has been invoked all along this process to mean that.Chris said:
Or looking at it breaking its treaty obligations to the European Union?Philip_Thompson said:
It doesn't want to be in a position where it is compelled to eat cake and have it too.Chris said:
It wants a deadline by which it has to stop having its cake and eating it?Philip_Thompson said:
Yes. 100%.Chris said:
You're saying Ireland _isn't_ pretending it wants a backstop? Ireland really does want a backstop?Philip_Thompson said:
No.Chris said:
So the Irish government is only pretending it wants a backstop, and will actually be really really pleased if the EU takes it out of the Withdrawal Agreement?Philip_Thompson said:
I mean there will be no checks.
Ireland has no intention to enforce the border even in a no deal scenario.
The UK has no intention to enforce the border even in a no deal scenario.
The EU has no ability to enforce the border even in a no deal scenario.
If a no deal scenario actually happens and the border remains open then it is the EU, not the UK or Ireland, with the biggest headache as far as Ireland is concerned. We and Ireland will be having our cake and eating it by not enforcing the border. That is why the EU is desperate to tie down the ludicrous backstop now.
Ireland doesn't want Brexit. It wants NI to remain bound as a member of the EU. However even if Brexit does happen then Ireland still won't enforce a hard border.
Can't you ring up Mr Varadkar and explain all this to him, and then the whole problem will be solved?
That would certainly make Ireland's position more comprehensible than your cake metaphor.
But if a no deal scenario happens then Ireland will break its obligations before it erects a border. If the UK doesn't come to heel then the only way to get out of the mess will be a deal which means no backstop.
0 -
Has no-one considered the possibility that, for understandable historical reasons, the Irish Government may not trust a gentleman's agreement with the UK not to erect a hard border?0
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A backstop pushes the problem to the U.K. no backstop creates a risk for IrelandChris said:
It wants a deadline by which it has to stop having its cake and eating it?Philip_Thompson said:
Yes. 100%.Chris said:
You're saying Ireland _isn't_ pretending it wants a backstop? Ireland really does want a backstop?Philip_Thompson said:
No.Chris said:
So the Irish government is only pretending it wants a backstop, and will actually be really really pleased if the EU takes it out of the Withdrawal Agreement?Philip_Thompson said:FPT to RCS
I mean there will be no checks.rcs1000 said:
Do you mean there will be no customs checks or enforcement, like between France and Belgium, or there will be passport checks, like between Switzerland and France?Philip_Thompson said:There will be no need for a backstop as there will be no hard border in Ireland. That is why this is a ludicrous and obvious bluff.
Ireland has no intention to enforce the border even in a no deal scenario.
The UK has no intention to enforce the border even in a no deal scenario.
The EU has no ability to enforce the border even in a no deal scenario.
If a no deal scenario actually happens and the border remains open then it is the EU, not the UK or Ireland, with the biggest headache as far as Ireland is concerned. We and Ireland will be having our cake and eating it by not enforcing the border. That is why the EU is desperate to tie down the ludicrous backstop now.
Ireland doesn't want Brexit. It wants NI to remain bound as a member of the EU. However even if Brexit does happen then Ireland still won't enforce a hard border.
Can't you ring up Mr Varadkar and explain all this to him, and then the whole problem will be solved?0 -
I disagree with you there. I reckon as a last resort (if no 'tory brexit' can be approved by this parliament) she might well be able to get a GE passed.Big_G_NorthWales said:With respect you do seem to be willing a GE but it is not in TM power to call one. The cabinet would not support it and nor would her mps, and without them you cannot get 434 mps to vote for dissolution
However, on balance, I see the deal passing (eventually) without one.0 -
I assume you want a Certificate to satisfy the Indian Tax Authorities?Anorak said:Help! To the accountants and business owners on here:
Does anyone know how long it takes to get a certificate of tax residency for a limited company?
Bloody Indian bureaucracy screwing up my cash flow...
I used to have this problem from time to time and it's slightly awkward because there is no official certificate as such and the Indians (and others) seem to assume there is. I used to find the problem was best solved by a letter from HMRC stating that your company is resident in the UK for Corporation Tax purposes. Best phone your tax inspector first to see if they are willing to provide such a letter. Explain the difficulty and they are likely(but not obliged) to help. I found it helped if I drafted the letter myself and sent a blank to them and they would just repeat the wording. That saves them hassle and as long as you word it sensibly they will just repeat it on headed notepaper. That usually works.
Your tax advisors could organise this for you but will charge you like a wounded rhino, and probably cock it up. Best to do it yourself.
0 -
I was surprised but I also understand the anger of some remainers who on the odd occasion go over the top and hit outPeter_the_Punter said:
Lol! Don't take it to heart, Big G. We're all called some odd things on here from time to time. I was once referred to as a 'right-wing Cockney'. Moi!Big_G_NorthWales said:
The EU will if we no deal. They will have no choice. I think this game of chicken is very dangerous because in both deal and no deal the EU have to agree a solution for the borderPhilip_Thompson said:
Nobody will. End of story.TOPPING said:
Jesus (Jaysus) H Christ will you please take some time to understand who will or won't erect a hard border in Northern Ireland.Philip_Thompson said:
No.Chris said:
So the Irish government is only pretending it wants a backstop, and will actually be really really pleased if the EU takes it out of the Withdrawal Agreement?Philip_Thompson said:FPT to RCS
I mean there will be no checks.rcs1000 said:
Do you mean there will be no customs checks or enforcement, like between France and Belgium, or there will be passport checks, like between Switzerland and France?Philip_Thompson said:There will be no need for a backstop as there will be no hard border in Ireland. That is why this is a ludicrous and obvious bluff.
Ireland has no intention to enforce the border even in a no deal scenario.
The UK has no intention to enforce the border even in a no deal scenario.
The EU has no ability to enforce the border even in a no deal scenario.
If a no deal scenario actually happens and the border remains open then it is the EU, not the UK or Ireland, with the biggest headache as far as Ireland is concerned. We and Ireland will be having our cake and eating it by not enforcing the border. That is why the EU is desperate to tie down the ludicrous backstop now.
Ireland doesn't want Brexit. It wants NI to remain bound as a member of the EU. However even if Brexit does happen then Ireland still won't enforce a hard border.
And I do not support ERG at all, in case I am accused, as I was yesterday believe or not, of being a hard brexiteer0 -
-
Welcome to PB. I don’t see a strong desire on the UK’s side (or anyone’s) for a border. Sounds as though the EU are the only one who’d force the issue.DougSeal said:Has no-one considered the possibility that, for understandable historical reasons, the Irish Government may not trust a gentleman's agreement with the UK not to erect a hard border?
0 -
If it wasn’t for the history that would be the logical outcomeDadge said:
I assume that the EU would take Ireland to court since it would be in breach of its responsibilities. It would probably also be necessary to instigate checks of goods and people from Ireland to the rest of the EU.Philip_Thompson said:
And if they point blank refuse to do so, then who is going to force the matter and how?Dadge said:
What choice will Ireland have? Without any immigration, customs and tariff agreements, border checkpoints will be needed where (some if not all) passports and goods are checked.Philip_Thompson said:
No.Chris said:
So the Irish government is only pretending it wants a backstop, and will actually be really really pleased if the EU takes it out of the Withdrawal Agreement?Philip_Thompson said:FPT to RCS
I mean there will be no checks.rcs1000 said:
Do you mean there will be no customs checks or enforcement, like between France and Belgium, or there will be passport checks, like between Switzerland and France?Philip_Thompson said:There will be no need for a backstop as there will be no hard border in Ireland. That is why this is a ludicrous and obvious bluff.
Ireland has no intention to enforce the border even in a no deal scenario.
The UK has no intention to enforce the border even in a no deal scenario.
The EU has no ability to enforce the border even in a no deal scenario.
If a no deal scenario actually happens and the border remains open then it is the EU, not the UK or Ireland, with the biggest headache as far as Ireland is concerned. We and Ireland will be having our cake and eating it by not enforcing the border. That is why the EU is desperate to tie down the ludicrous backstop now.
Ireland doesn't want Brexit. It wants NI to remain bound as a member of the EU. However even if Brexit does happen then Ireland still won't enforce a hard border.0 -
I mean Phil, I think your presence on here is interesting enough in that it gives us an insight into the mind of people such as yourself, of whom I think there are many.Philip_Thompson said:
Nobody will. End of story.TOPPING said:
Jesus (Jaysus) H Christ will you please take some time to understand who will or won't erect a hard border in Northern Ireland.Philip_Thompson said:
No.Chris said:
So the Irish government is only pretending it wants a backstop, and will actually be really really pleased if the EU takes it out of the Withdrawal Agreement?Philip_Thompson said:FPT to RCS
I mean there will be no checks.rcs1000 said:
Do you mean there will be no customs checks or enforcement, like between France and Belgium, or there will be passport checks, like between Switzerland and France?Philip_Thompson said:There will be no need for a backstop as there will be no hard border in Ireland. That is why this is a ludicrous and obvious bluff.
Ireland has no intention to enforce the border even in a no deal scenario.
The UK has no intention to enforce the border even in a no deal scenario.
The EU has no ability to enforce the border even in a no deal scenario.
If a no deal scenario actually happens and the border remains open then it is the EU, not the UK or Ireland, with the biggest headache as far as Ireland is concerned. We and Ireland will be having our cake and eating it by not enforcing the border. That is why the EU is desperate to tie down the ludicrous backstop now.
Ireland doesn't want Brexit. It wants NI to remain bound as a member of the EU. However even if Brexit does happen then Ireland still won't enforce a hard border.
But when your posts are so devoid of understanding, and exhibit such transparent ignorance, it is difficult to take you seriously.
As one final effort, although god knows why I persist, I will point you in the direction of the answer which is WTO MFN.
All yours now - good luck!0 -
Yes it does help the UK as (so long as we don't fold) it gives us immense leverage. The only way to solve the problem - and it will be a problem for the EU - will be to get a deal. Only way to get a deal is to get both sides to agree. We wont agree if there is a backstop.SouthamObserver said:
I agree that the Irish are not going to put up any barriers when we go to No Deal. They would be mad to. But that is not going to help the UK.Philip_Thompson said:
But if a no deal scenario happens then Ireland will break its obligations before it erects a border. If the UK doesn't come to heel then the only way to get out of the mess will be a deal which means no backstop.
The EU will need the Irish border issue dealing with us in that scenario more than us. The integrity of the UK will be intact but the integrity of the Single Market won't be. A standstill transition minus the backstop is a fudge that will kick the can down the road and remove the immediate headache for the EU while concentrating minds on both sides to find a real solution.0 -
Meanwhile, what Nissan were promised in 2016 is revealed.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/feb/04/government-letter-to-nissan-reveals-brexit-promise-to-carmarkers
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She will not get it passed her party judging by the near hysteria from her mps on twitter. The only way is through another vonc but even that may not result in a GEkinabalu said:
I disagree with you there. I reckon as a last resort (if no 'tory brexit' can be approved by this parliament) she might well be able to get a GE passed.Big_G_NorthWales said:With respect you do seem to be willing a GE but it is not in TM power to call one. The cabinet would not support it and nor would her mps, and without them you cannot get 434 mps to vote for dissolution
However, on balance, I see the deal passing (eventually) without one.0 -
Well that's bewildering. My understanding is that the argument is that the GFA requires a back stop, not that it contravenes it.eek said:0 -
Clark’s promise cannot be met because no Brexit deal has been struck with the European Union,dixiedean said:Meanwhile, what Nissan were promised in 2016 is revealed.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/feb/04/government-letter-to-nissan-reveals-brexit-promise-to-carmarkers
Cannot? There’s a deal on the table, isn’t there?0 -
It's a healthy relative lead but it doesn't look particularly strong or stable.0
-
Sky breaking news
Lord Trimble to take government to court to get the backstop protocol removed from the deal0 -
Although as @SouthamObserver points out the Irish lobby in the US is so strong they wouldn’t want to sue us because that might require a hard borderTOPPING said:
I mean Phil, I think your presence on here is interesting enough in that it gives us an insight into the mind of people such as yourself, of whom I think there are many.Philip_Thompson said:
Nobody will. End of story.TOPPING said:
Jesus (Jaysus) H Christ will you please take some time to understand who will or won't erect a hard border in Northern Ireland.Philip_Thompson said:
No.Chris said:
So the Irish government is only pretending it wants a backstop, and will actually be really really pleased if the EU takes it out of the Withdrawal Agreement?Philip_Thompson said:FPT to RCS
I mean there will be no checks.rcs1000 said:
Do you mean there will be no customs checks or enforcement, like between France and Belgium, or there will be passport checks, like between Switzerland and France?Philip_Thompson said:There will be no need for a backstop as there will be no hard border in Ireland. That is why this is a ludicrous and obvious bluff.
Ireland has no intention to enforce the border even in a no deal scenario.
The UK has no intention to enforce the border even in a no deal scenario.
The EU has no ability to enforce the border even in a no deal scenario.
If a no deal scenario actually happens and the border remains open then it is the EU, not the UK or Ireland, with the biggest headache as far as Ireland is concerned. We and Ireland will be having our cake and eating it by not enforcing the border. That is why the EU is desperate to tie down the ludicrous backstop now.
Ireland doesn't want Brexit. It wants NI to remain bound as a member of the EU. However even if Brexit does happen then Ireland still won't enforce a hard border.
But when your posts are so devoid of understanding, and exhibit such transparent ignorance, it is difficult to take you seriously.
As one final effort, although god knows why I persist, I will point you in the direction of the answer which is WTO MFN.
All yours now - good luck!0 -
Guys I think I've come across a workable Brexit compromise
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tyyoaBa7DaE0 -
-
“If we don’t fold” is doing a hell of a lot of work in that scenario given what No Deal means for us.Philip_Thompson said:
Yes it does help the UK as (so long as we don't fold) it gives us immense leverage. The only way to solve the problem - and it will be a problem for the EU - will be to get a deal. Only way to get a deal is to get both sides to agree. We wont agree if there is a backstop.SouthamObserver said:
I agree that the Irish are not going to put up any barriers when we go to No Deal. They would be mad to. But that is not going to help the UK.Philip_Thompson said:
But if a no deal scenario happens then Ireland will break its obligations before it erects a border. If the UK doesn't come to heel then the only way to get out of the mess will be a deal which means no backstop.
The EU will need the Irish border issue dealing with us in that scenario more than us. The integrity of the UK will be intact but the integrity of the Single Market won't be. A standstill transition minus the backstop is a fudge that will kick the can down the road and remove the immediate headache for the EU while concentrating minds on both sides to find a real solution.
0 -
The important thing for the Irish government, and also the British government until it welched on its deal last week, is that the GFA requires no change in the constitutional status of NI without a border poll.RobD said:
Brexit is a pretty damn significant change.0 -
So what do you think her 'last resort' move is if her deal is irredeemably blocked by parliament?Big_G_NorthWales said:She will not get it passed her party judging by the near hysteria from her mps on twitter. The only way is through another vonc but even that may not result in a GE
0 -
I'm not saying I agree with the argument but that is what is said. It is claimed that it was implied that we would do nothing to impede the free movement of goods and people in the island of Ireland and that means we need to agree something that has that effect, even if we leave the EU which essentially provided such a scenario.RobD said:
For the backstop to be a breach of the GFA you would need to argue that it breaches the terms on which NI was going to remain in the UK. Not sure I am seeing that, tbh.
But its been weeks since we had a completely daft and irrelevant court case about some aspect of Brexit, so why not?0 -
No change in its relationship with the U.K. though, unless a border poll is required for reach new EU treaty, for example. I don’t remember there being calls for one for Lisbon.gypsumfantastic said:
The important thing for the Irish government, and also the British government until it welched on its deal last week, is that the GFA requires no change in the constitutional status of NI without a border poll.RobD said:
Brexit is a pretty damn significant change.0 -
One puppy, one revolver, one bullet.kinabalu said:
So what do you think her 'last resort' move is if her deal is irredeemably blocked by parliament?Big_G_NorthWales said:She will not get it passed her party judging by the near hysteria from her mps on twitter. The only way is through another vonc but even that may not result in a GE
0 -
I wonder if there is a plan to use the GFA as the reason to Revoke A50....gypsumfantastic said:
The important thing for the Irish government, and also the British government until it welched on its deal last week, is that the GFA requires no change in the constitutional status of NI without a border poll.RobD said:
Brexit is a pretty damn significant change.0 -
Just a pound shop Cruella De Ville.gypsumfantastic said:
One puppy, one revolver, one bullet.kinabalu said:
So what do you think her 'last resort' move is if her deal is irredeemably blocked by parliament?Big_G_NorthWales said:She will not get it passed her party judging by the near hysteria from her mps on twitter. The only way is through another vonc but even that may not result in a GE
0 -
But a pretty significant change in its relationship with the Republic, hence the concern.RobD said:
No change in it’s relationship with the U.K. though, unless a border poll is required for reach new EU treaty, for example. I don’t remember there being calls for one for Lisbon.gypsumfantastic said:
The important thing for the Irish government, and also the British government until it welched on its deal last week, is that the GFA requires no change in the constitutional status of NI without a border poll.RobD said:
Brexit is a pretty damn significant change.
In any case, it's relevant because the British government was committed to assuring there could be no return to a hard border. And until last week, when May suddenly reneged on her solemn promise and voted against the backstop she negotiated, maybe Ireland even believed the UK government meant it.0 -
This is the HMRC web page for the relevant form.Peter_the_Punter said:
I assume you want a Certificate to satisfy the Indian Tax Authorities?Anorak said:Help! To the accountants and business owners on here:
Does anyone know how long it takes to get a certificate of tax residency for a limited company?
Bloody Indian bureaucracy screwing up my cash flow...
I used to have this problem from time to time and it's slightly awkward because there is no official certificate as such and the Indians (and others) seem to assume there is. I used to find the problem was best solved by a letter from HMRC stating that your company is resident in the UK for Corporation Tax purposes. Best phone your tax inspector first to see if they are willing to provide such a letter. Explain the difficulty and they are likely(but not obliged) to help. I found it helped if I drafted the letter myself and sent a blank to them and they would just repeat the wording. That saves them hassle and as long as you word it sensibly they will just repeat it on headed notepaper. That usually works.
Your tax advisors could organise this for you but will charge you like a wounded rhino, and probably cock it up. Best to do it yourself.
https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/certificate-of-residence-application-letter-applications-only-res10 -
I don’t think it mentions anything about customs checks either. You are right that the concession won by May for the backstop to apply to the entire UK renders Trimble’s case a bit silly.DavidL said:
I'm not saying I agree with the argument but that is what is said. It is claimed that it was implied that we would do nothing to impede the free movement of goods and people in the island of Ireland and that means we need to agree something that has that effect, even if we leave the EU which essentially provided such a scenario.RobD said:
For the backstop to be a breach of the GFA you would need to argue that it breaches the terms on which NI was going to remain in the UK. Not sure I am seeing that, tbh.
But its been weeks since we had a completely daft and irrelevant court case about some aspect of Brexit, so why not?0 -
Seek an extension to A50kinabalu said:
So what do you think her 'last resort' move is if her deal is irredeemably blocked by parliament?Big_G_NorthWales said:She will not get it passed her party judging by the near hysteria from her mps on twitter. The only way is through another vonc but even that may not result in a GE
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This is the thing. For May, there is no such thing as a last resort. There's always a can to be kicked, for as long as we let her.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Seek an extension to A50kinabalu said:
So what do you think her 'last resort' move is if her deal is irredeemably blocked by parliament?Big_G_NorthWales said:She will not get it passed her party judging by the near hysteria from her mps on twitter. The only way is through another vonc but even that may not result in a GE
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The EU will presumably fold then - bye bye backstop.Philip_Thompson said:Yes it does help the UK as (so long as we don't fold) it gives us immense leverage. The only way to solve the problem - and it will be a problem for the EU - will be to get a deal. Only way to get a deal is to get both sides to agree. We wont agree if there is a backstop.
The EU will need the Irish border issue dealing with us in that scenario more than us. The integrity of the UK will be intact but the integrity of the Single Market won't be. A standstill transition minus the backstop is a fudge that will kick the can down the road and remove the immediate headache for the EU while concentrating minds on both sides to find a real solution.
Let's see if they do.0 -
Thanks Verulamius. That didn't exist in my day and is a welcome facility for many, I am sure.Verulamius said:
This is the HMRC web page for the relevant form.Peter_the_Punter said:
I assume you want a Certificate to satisfy the Indian Tax Authorities?Anorak said:Help! To the accountants and business owners on here:
Does anyone know how long it takes to get a certificate of tax residency for a limited company?
Bloody Indian bureaucracy screwing up my cash flow...
I used to have this problem from time to time and it's slightly awkward because there is no official certificate as such and the Indians (and others) seem to assume there is. I used to find the problem was best solved by a letter from HMRC stating that your company is resident in the UK for Corporation Tax purposes. Best phone your tax inspector first to see if they are willing to provide such a letter. Explain the difficulty and they are likely(but not obliged) to help. I found it helped if I drafted the letter myself and sent a blank to them and they would just repeat the wording. That saves them hassle and as long as you word it sensibly they will just repeat it on headed notepaper. That usually works.
Your tax advisors could organise this for you but will charge you like a wounded rhino, and probably cock it up. Best to do it yourself.
https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/certificate-of-residence-application-letter-applications-only-res10 -
We are talking about a Unionist politician.RobD said:
I don’t think it mentions anything about customs checks either. You are right that the concession won by May for the backstop to apply to the entire UK renders Trimble’s case a bit silly.DavidL said:
I'm not saying I agree with the argument but that is what is said. It is claimed that it was implied that we would do nothing to impede the free movement of goods and people in the island of Ireland and that means we need to agree something that has that effect, even if we leave the EU which essentially provided such a scenario.RobD said:
For the backstop to be a breach of the GFA you would need to argue that it breaches the terms on which NI was going to remain in the UK. Not sure I am seeing that, tbh.
But its been weeks since we had a completely daft and irrelevant court case about some aspect of Brexit, so why not?0 -
To do what though?Big_G_NorthWales said:Seek an extension to A50
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I have noted various shots across the bows from the US. The Trimble story is of course priceless. If it weren't so tragic.Charles said:
Although as @SouthamObserver points out the Irish lobby in the US is so strong they wouldn’t want to sue us because that might require a hard borderTOPPING said:
I mean Phil, I think your presence on here is interesting enough in that it gives us an insight into the mind of people such as yourself, of whom I think there are many.Philip_Thompson said:
Nobody will. End of story.TOPPING said:
Jesus (Jaysus) H Christ will you please take some time to understand who will or won't erect a hard border in Northern Ireland.Philip_Thompson said:
No.Chris said:
So the Irish government is only pretending it wants a backstop, and will actually be really really pleased if the EU takes it out of the Withdrawal Agreement?Philip_Thompson said:FPT to RCS
I mean there will be no checks.rcs1000 said:
Do you mean there will be no customs checks or enforcement, like between France and Belgium, or there will be passport checks, like between Switzerland and France?Philip_Thompson said:There will be no need for a backstop as there will be no hard border in Ireland. That is why this is a ludicrous and obvious bluff.
Ireland has no intention to enforce the border even in a no deal scenario.
The UK has no intention to enforce the border even in a no deal scenario.
The EU has no ability to enforce the border even in a no deal scenario.
If a no deal scenario actually happens and the border remains open then it is the EU, not the UK or Ireland, with the biggest headache as far as Ireland is concerned. We and Ireland will be having our cake and eating it by not enforcing the border. That is why the EU is desperate to tie down the ludicrous backstop now.
Ireland doesn't want Brexit. It wants NI to remain bound as a member of the EU. However even if Brexit does happen then Ireland still won't enforce a hard border.
But when your posts are so devoid of understanding, and exhibit such transparent ignorance, it is difficult to take you seriously.
As one final effort, although god knows why I persist, I will point you in the direction of the answer which is WTO MFN.
All yours now - good luck!0 -
If at first you don't concede,kinabalu said:
To do what though?Big_G_NorthWales said:Seek an extension to A50
Extend, extend again.0 -
gypsumfantastic said:
But a pretty significant change in its relationship with the Republic, hence the concern.RobD said:
No change in it’s relationship with the U.K. though, unless a border poll is required for reach new EU treaty, for example. I don’t remember there being calls for one for Lisbon.gypsumfantastic said:
The important thing for the Irish government, and also the British government until it welched on its deal last week, is that the GFA requires no change in the constitutional status of NI without a border poll.RobD said:
Brexit is a pretty damn significant change.
In any case, it's relevant because the British government was committed to assuring there could be no return to a hard border. And until last week, when May suddenly reneged on her solemn promise and voted against the backstop she negotiated, maybe Ireland even believed the UK government meant it.
Does it explicitly prevent changes in arrangements between the UK and Ireland? I only remember clauses about a borde rpoll being necessary if it was thought there was a majority for joining Ireland.
As for May reneging the deal. Parliamentary theatre, probably to demonstrate once and for all that this is the only deal on the table.0 -
If we were being honest and rational, the government would have realised by last summer that it's impossible for the UK to honour May's red lines and the GFA, and made moves to start the reunification of Ireland.Scott_P said:
That would be hilariouseek said:I wonder if there is a plan to use the GFA as the reason to Revoke A50....
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In order to seek a further extension 3 months later.kinabalu said:
To do what though?Big_G_NorthWales said:Seek an extension to A50
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Wasn't Trimble in the OUP. Aren't they Remainers? (I believe he's a Tory peer now).OldKingCole said:
We are talking about a Unionist politician.RobD said:
I don’t think it mentions anything about customs checks either. You are right that the concession won by May for the backstop to apply to the entire UK renders Trimble’s case a bit silly.DavidL said:
I'm not saying I agree with the argument but that is what is said. It is claimed that it was implied that we would do nothing to impede the free movement of goods and people in the island of Ireland and that means we need to agree something that has that effect, even if we leave the EU which essentially provided such a scenario.RobD said:
For the backstop to be a breach of the GFA you would need to argue that it breaches the terms on which NI was going to remain in the UK. Not sure I am seeing that, tbh.
But its been weeks since we had a completely daft and irrelevant court case about some aspect of Brexit, so why not?0 -
Changes to the GFA need to be approved by a border poll too.RobD said:
Does it explicitly prevent changes in arrangements between the UK and Ireland? I only remember clauses about a borde rpoll being necessary if it was thought there was a majority for joining Ireland.
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The discussions to date have all been predictable over the deal, no deal, referendum, extension or revoke but with Lord Trimble's move today over a judicial review in respect of the backstop and the GFA we are entering a whole new world of uncertainty and maybe further referrals to the courts
And if the Court does rule it illegal under the GFA it must then put the EU into the legal mix as it is they who are insisting on it
This is never going to end0 -
But what needs to be changed?gypsumfantastic said:
Changes to the GFA need to be approved by a border poll too.RobD said:
Does it explicitly prevent changes in arrangements between the UK and Ireland? I only remember clauses about a borde rpoll being necessary if it was thought there was a majority for joining Ireland.0 -
Yes, he's a remainer. He hopes that having the backstop ruled illegal will make Brexit legally impossible.dixiedean said:
Wasn't Trimble in the OUP. Aren't they Remainers? (I believe he's a Tory peer now).0 -
Always darkest before the dawn, etc!Big_G_NorthWales said:The discussions to date have all been predictable over the deal, no deal, referendum, extension or revoke but with Lord Trimbles move today over avjudicial review in respect of the backstop and the GFA we are entering a whole new world of uncertainty and maybe further referrals to the courts
And if the Court does rule it illegal under the GFA it must then put the EU into the legal mix as it is they who are insisting on it
This is never going to end
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Trimble last April:
However, he maintained that the Good Friday Agreement was robust enough to weather the challenges of Brexit and that a solution would be easy.
“The Taoiseach, the Prime Minister, and somebody from Brussels who is in a position to take decisions, if those three people sat down around a table I suspect it wouldn’t take them more than half an hour to sort things out”.
https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/trimble-says-irish-brexit-challenges-could-be-solved-in-half-an-hour-1.34567910
This discussion has been closed.