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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The battle between LAB & CON viewed through the perspective of their leader’s approval ratings since GE2017

I have been meaning to compile this for sometime – how Corbyn and May compare with each other month by month based on the Opinium leader approval ratings. The pollster is the only one that asks this question in every survey it does for the Observer though the figures often don’t get reported.

Read the full story here

DecrepitJohnL

OT already. David Gauke's intimation this morning that we might delay Brexit used the phrase "smooth and orderly" twice, thus referencing the 2017 manifesto which used it four times.

Philip_Thompson

FPT to RCS

rcs1000 said:

Philip_Thompson said:

There will be no need for a backstop as there will be no hard border in Ireland. That is why this is a ludicrous and obvious bluff.

Do you mean there will be no customs checks or enforcement, like between France and Belgium, or there will be passport checks, like between Switzerland and France?

I mean there will be no checks.

Ireland has no intention to enforce the border even in a no deal scenario.
The UK has no intention to enforce the border even in a no deal scenario.
The EU has no ability to enforce the border even in a no deal scenario.

If a no deal scenario actually happens and the border remains open then it is the EU, not the UK or Ireland, with the biggest headache as far as Ireland is concerned. We and Ireland will be having our cake and eating it by not enforcing the border. That is why the EU is desperate to tie down the ludicrous backstop now.

If the bluff gets called then there's no need to deal with the border issue as its already not getting dealt with. Instead there's a need to fix the fact they have a gaping hole in their Single Market to a non-member. Which is best dealt with by a deal we can and will ratify - which means no backstop.

Only way a backstop remains after no deal is if the border gets enforced (won't happen) or we suffer so much we go back on bended knees desperate for anything (won't happen either).

Chris

Philip_Thompson said:

FPT to RCS

rcs1000 said:

Philip_Thompson said:

There will be no need for a backstop as there will be no hard border in Ireland. That is why this is a ludicrous and obvious bluff.

Do you mean there will be no customs checks or enforcement, like between France and Belgium, or there will be passport checks, like between Switzerland and France?

I mean there will be no checks.

Ireland has no intention to enforce the border even in a no deal scenario.
The UK has no intention to enforce the border even in a no deal scenario.
The EU has no ability to enforce the border even in a no deal scenario.

If a no deal scenario actually happens and the border remains open then it is the EU, not the UK or Ireland, with the biggest headache as far as Ireland is concerned. We and Ireland will be having our cake and eating it by not enforcing the border. That is why the EU is desperate to tie down the ludicrous backstop now.

So the Irish government is only pretending it wants a backstop, and will actually be really really pleased if the EU takes it out of the Withdrawal Agreement?

IanB2

Fourth like Boris

DavidL

Interesting chart. So May is still not as popular (net) as Corbyn was in June/July 17?

IanB2

DavidL said:

Interesting chart. So May is still not as popular (net) as Corbyn was in June/July 17?

But the chart is popularity relative to each other, from which you cant determine either of their actual popularity scores

Philip_Thompson

Chris said:

Philip_Thompson said:

FPT to RCS

rcs1000 said:

Philip_Thompson said:

There will be no need for a backstop as there will be no hard border in Ireland. That is why this is a ludicrous and obvious bluff.

Do you mean there will be no customs checks or enforcement, like between France and Belgium, or there will be passport checks, like between Switzerland and France?

I mean there will be no checks.

Ireland has no intention to enforce the border even in a no deal scenario.
The UK has no intention to enforce the border even in a no deal scenario.
The EU has no ability to enforce the border even in a no deal scenario.

If a no deal scenario actually happens and the border remains open then it is the EU, not the UK or Ireland, with the biggest headache as far as Ireland is concerned. We and Ireland will be having our cake and eating it by not enforcing the border. That is why the EU is desperate to tie down the ludicrous backstop now.

So the Irish government is only pretending it wants a backstop, and will actually be really really pleased if the EU takes it out of the Withdrawal Agreement?

No.

Ireland doesn't want Brexit. It wants NI to remain bound as a member of the EU. However even if Brexit does happen then Ireland still won't enforce a hard border.

DavidL

IanB2 said:

DavidL said:

Interesting chart. So May is still not as popular (net) as Corbyn was in June/July 17?

But the chart is popularity relative to each other, from which you cant determine either of their actual popularity scores

You can determine their relative popularity and Corbyn in June/July 17 was relatively more popular than May is now.

Not since the country went daft over Bambi in 97 have we had a genuinely popular politician. We don't like any of them and for good reasons.

rkrkrk

This series I think is really only measuring how popular leaders are with their own parties and natural supporters, since neither leader attracts much cross party support.

Chris

Philip_Thompson said:

Chris said:

Philip_Thompson said:

FPT to RCS

rcs1000 said:

Philip_Thompson said:

There will be no need for a backstop as there will be no hard border in Ireland. That is why this is a ludicrous and obvious bluff.

Do you mean there will be no customs checks or enforcement, like between France and Belgium, or there will be passport checks, like between Switzerland and France?

I mean there will be no checks.

Ireland has no intention to enforce the border even in a no deal scenario.
The UK has no intention to enforce the border even in a no deal scenario.
The EU has no ability to enforce the border even in a no deal scenario.

If a no deal scenario actually happens and the border remains open then it is the EU, not the UK or Ireland, with the biggest headache as far as Ireland is concerned. We and Ireland will be having our cake and eating it by not enforcing the border. That is why the EU is desperate to tie down the ludicrous backstop now.

So the Irish government is only pretending it wants a backstop, and will actually be really really pleased if the EU takes it out of the Withdrawal Agreement?

No.

Ireland doesn't want Brexit. It wants NI to remain bound as a member of the EU. However even if Brexit does happen then Ireland still won't enforce a hard border.

You're saying Ireland _isn't_ pretending it wants a backstop? Ireland really does want a backstop?

DavidL

rkrkrk said:

This series I think is really only measuring how popular leaders are with their own parties and natural supporters, since neither leader attracts much cross party support.

Hmm...you think May is currently popular in the Conservative party?

Philip_Thompson

Chris said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Chris said:

Philip_Thompson said:

FPT to RCS

rcs1000 said:

Philip_Thompson said:

There will be no need for a backstop as there will be no hard border in Ireland. That is why this is a ludicrous and obvious bluff.

Do you mean there will be no customs checks or enforcement, like between France and Belgium, or there will be passport checks, like between Switzerland and France?

I mean there will be no checks.

Ireland has no intention to enforce the border even in a no deal scenario.
The UK has no intention to enforce the border even in a no deal scenario.
The EU has no ability to enforce the border even in a no deal scenario.

If a no deal scenario actually happens and the border remains open then it is the EU, not the UK or Ireland, with the biggest headache as far as Ireland is concerned. We and Ireland will be having our cake and eating it by not enforcing the border. That is why the EU is desperate to tie down the ludicrous backstop now.

So the Irish government is only pretending it wants a backstop, and will actually be really really pleased if the EU takes it out of the Withdrawal Agreement?

No.

Ireland doesn't want Brexit. It wants NI to remain bound as a member of the EU. However even if Brexit does happen then Ireland still won't enforce a hard border.

You're saying Ireland _isn't_ pretending it wants a backstop? Ireland really does want a backstop?

Yes. 100%.

FrancisUrquhart

DavidL said:

rkrkrk said:

This series I think is really only measuring how popular leaders are with their own parties and natural supporters, since neither leader attracts much cross party support.

Hmm...you think May is currently popular in the Conservative party?

I am not sure she is even that popular in her own household.

Chris

Philip_Thompson said:

Chris said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Chris said:

Philip_Thompson said:

FPT to RCS

rcs1000 said:

Philip_Thompson said:

There will be no need for a backstop as there will be no hard border in Ireland. That is why this is a ludicrous and obvious bluff.

Do you mean there will be no customs checks or enforcement, like between France and Belgium, or there will be passport checks, like between Switzerland and France?

I mean there will be no checks.

Ireland has no intention to enforce the border even in a no deal scenario.
The UK has no intention to enforce the border even in a no deal scenario.
The EU has no ability to enforce the border even in a no deal scenario.

If a no deal scenario actually happens and the border remains open then it is the EU, not the UK or Ireland, with the biggest headache as far as Ireland is concerned. We and Ireland will be having our cake and eating it by not enforcing the border. That is why the EU is desperate to tie down the ludicrous backstop now.

So the Irish government is only pretending it wants a backstop, and will actually be really really pleased if the EU takes it out of the Withdrawal Agreement?

No.

Ireland doesn't want Brexit. It wants NI to remain bound as a member of the EU. However even if Brexit does happen then Ireland still won't enforce a hard border.

You're saying Ireland _isn't_ pretending it wants a backstop? Ireland really does want a backstop?

Yes. 100%.

It wants a deadline by which it has to stop having its cake and eating it?

Can't you ring up Mr Varadkar and explain all this to him, and then the whole problem will be solved?

Scott_P

https://twitter.com/robfordmancs/status/1092439636188778497

DavidL

FrancisUrquhart said:

DavidL said:

rkrkrk said:

This series I think is really only measuring how popular leaders are with their own parties and natural supporters, since neither leader attracts much cross party support.

Hmm...you think May is currently popular in the Conservative party?

I am not sure she is even that popular in her own household.

Not sure why you would say that. Philip seems immensely supportive of her to me.

gypsumfantastic

DecrepitJohnL said:

OT already. David Gauke's intimation this morning that we might delay Brexit used the phrase "smooth and orderly" twice, thus referencing the 2017 manifesto which used it four times.

This is "orderly" in the sense of "person who puts your straitjacket on".

Dadge

Philip_Thompson said:

Chris said:

Philip_Thompson said:

FPT to RCS

rcs1000 said:

Philip_Thompson said:

There will be no need for a backstop as there will be no hard border in Ireland. That is why this is a ludicrous and obvious bluff.

Do you mean there will be no customs checks or enforcement, like between France and Belgium, or there will be passport checks, like between Switzerland and France?

I mean there will be no checks.

Ireland has no intention to enforce the border even in a no deal scenario.
The UK has no intention to enforce the border even in a no deal scenario.
The EU has no ability to enforce the border even in a no deal scenario.

If a no deal scenario actually happens and the border remains open then it is the EU, not the UK or Ireland, with the biggest headache as far as Ireland is concerned. We and Ireland will be having our cake and eating it by not enforcing the border. That is why the EU is desperate to tie down the ludicrous backstop now.

So the Irish government is only pretending it wants a backstop, and will actually be really really pleased if the EU takes it out of the Withdrawal Agreement?

No.

Ireland doesn't want Brexit. It wants NI to remain bound as a member of the EU. However even if Brexit does happen then Ireland still won't enforce a hard border.

What choice will Ireland have? Without any immigration, customs and tariff agreements, border checkpoints will be needed where (some if not all) passports and goods are checked.

eek

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/robfordmancs/status/1092439636188778497

And your typical Labour Northern Leave seat would vote Labour even if the candidate was a half-dead baboon provided said baboon was wearing a Red Rosette.

IanB2

eek said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/robfordmancs/status/1092439636188778497

And your typical Labour Northern Leave seat would vote Labour even if the candidate was a half-dead baboon provided said baboon was wearing a Red Rosette.

Over the years there are a reasonable number that have been lost to the LibDems, including in Liverpool, Manchester, Stockport, Leeds, Bradford, Sheffield and Chesterfield.

TOPPING

Philip_Thompson said:

Chris said:

Philip_Thompson said:

FPT to RCS

rcs1000 said:

Philip_Thompson said:

There will be no need for a backstop as there will be no hard border in Ireland. That is why this is a ludicrous and obvious bluff.

Do you mean there will be no customs checks or enforcement, like between France and Belgium, or there will be passport checks, like between Switzerland and France?

I mean there will be no checks.

Ireland has no intention to enforce the border even in a no deal scenario.
The UK has no intention to enforce the border even in a no deal scenario.
The EU has no ability to enforce the border even in a no deal scenario.

If a no deal scenario actually happens and the border remains open then it is the EU, not the UK or Ireland, with the biggest headache as far as Ireland is concerned. We and Ireland will be having our cake and eating it by not enforcing the border. That is why the EU is desperate to tie down the ludicrous backstop now.

So the Irish government is only pretending it wants a backstop, and will actually be really really pleased if the EU takes it out of the Withdrawal Agreement?

No.

Ireland doesn't want Brexit. It wants NI to remain bound as a member of the EU. However even if Brexit does happen then Ireland still won't enforce a hard border.

Jesus (Jaysus) H Christ will you please take some time to understand who will or won't erect a hard border in Northern Ireland.

OldKingCole

eek said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/robfordmancs/status/1092439636188778497

And your typical Labour Northern Leave seat would vote Labour even if the candidate was a half-dead baboon provided said baboon was wearing a Red Rosette.

To be fair, there are some Tory seats which fall into that category, too. Only the rosette would, of course, be blue. Rayleigh/Wickford for example.

Philip_Thompson

Dadge said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Chris said:

Philip_Thompson said:

FPT to RCS

rcs1000 said:

Philip_Thompson said:

There will be no need for a backstop as there will be no hard border in Ireland. That is why this is a ludicrous and obvious bluff.

Do you mean there will be no customs checks or enforcement, like between France and Belgium, or there will be passport checks, like between Switzerland and France?

I mean there will be no checks.

Ireland has no intention to enforce the border even in a no deal scenario.
The UK has no intention to enforce the border even in a no deal scenario.
The EU has no ability to enforce the border even in a no deal scenario.

If a no deal scenario actually happens and the border remains open then it is the EU, not the UK or Ireland, with the biggest headache as far as Ireland is concerned. We and Ireland will be having our cake and eating it by not enforcing the border. That is why the EU is desperate to tie down the ludicrous backstop now.

So the Irish government is only pretending it wants a backstop, and will actually be really really pleased if the EU takes it out of the Withdrawal Agreement?

No.

Ireland doesn't want Brexit. It wants NI to remain bound as a member of the EU. However even if Brexit does happen then Ireland still won't enforce a hard border.

What choice will Ireland have? Without any immigration, customs and tariff agreements, border checkpoints will be needed where (some if not all) passports and goods are checked.

And if they point blank refuse to do so, then who is going to force the matter and how?

Philip_Thompson

TOPPING said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Chris said:

Philip_Thompson said:

FPT to RCS

rcs1000 said:

Philip_Thompson said:

There will be no need for a backstop as there will be no hard border in Ireland. That is why this is a ludicrous and obvious bluff.

Do you mean there will be no customs checks or enforcement, like between France and Belgium, or there will be passport checks, like between Switzerland and France?

I mean there will be no checks.

Ireland has no intention to enforce the border even in a no deal scenario.
The UK has no intention to enforce the border even in a no deal scenario.
The EU has no ability to enforce the border even in a no deal scenario.

If a no deal scenario actually happens and the border remains open then it is the EU, not the UK or Ireland, with the biggest headache as far as Ireland is concerned. We and Ireland will be having our cake and eating it by not enforcing the border. That is why the EU is desperate to tie down the ludicrous backstop now.

So the Irish government is only pretending it wants a backstop, and will actually be really really pleased if the EU takes it out of the Withdrawal Agreement?

No.

Ireland doesn't want Brexit. It wants NI to remain bound as a member of the EU. However even if Brexit does happen then Ireland still won't enforce a hard border.

Jesus (Jaysus) H Christ will you please take some time to understand who will or won't erect a hard border in Northern Ireland.

Nobody will. End of story.

Scott_P

https://twitter.com/ftwestminster/status/1092445498823319553

Philip_Thompson

Chris said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Chris said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Chris said:

Philip_Thompson said:

FPT to RCS

rcs1000 said:

Philip_Thompson said:

There will be no need for a backstop as there will be no hard border in Ireland. That is why this is a ludicrous and obvious bluff.

Do you mean there will be no customs checks or enforcement, like between France and Belgium, or there will be passport checks, like between Switzerland and France?

I mean there will be no checks.

Ireland has no intention to enforce the border even in a no deal scenario.
The UK has no intention to enforce the border even in a no deal scenario.
The EU has no ability to enforce the border even in a no deal scenario.

If a no deal scenario actually happens and the border remains open then it is the EU, not the UK or Ireland, with the biggest headache as far as Ireland is concerned. We and Ireland will be having our cake and eating it by not enforcing the border. That is why the EU is desperate to tie down the ludicrous backstop now.

So the Irish government is only pretending it wants a backstop, and will actually be really really pleased if the EU takes it out of the Withdrawal Agreement?

No.

Ireland doesn't want Brexit. It wants NI to remain bound as a member of the EU. However even if Brexit does happen then Ireland still won't enforce a hard border.

You're saying Ireland _isn't_ pretending it wants a backstop? Ireland really does want a backstop?

Yes. 100%.

It wants a deadline by which it has to stop having its cake and eating it?

Can't you ring up Mr Varadkar and explain all this to him, and then the whole problem will be solved?

It doesn't want to be in a position where it is compelled to eat cake and have it too.

notme2

eek said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/robfordmancs/status/1092439636188778497

And your typical Labour Northern Leave seat would vote Labour even if the candidate was a half-dead baboon provided said baboon was wearing a Red Rosette.

The voters of Copeland and Middlesbrough say otherwise....

Chris

Philip_Thompson said:

Chris said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Chris said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Chris said:

Philip_Thompson said:

FPT to RCS

rcs1000 said:

Philip_Thompson said:

There will be no need for a backstop as there will be no hard border in Ireland. That is why this is a ludicrous and obvious bluff.

Do you mean there will be no customs checks or enforcement, like between France and Belgium, or there will be passport checks, like between Switzerland and France?

I mean there will be no checks.

Ireland has no intention to enforce the border even in a no deal scenario.
The UK has no intention to enforce the border even in a no deal scenario.
The EU has no ability to enforce the border even in a no deal scenario.

If a no deal scenario actually happens and the border remains open then it is the EU, not the UK or Ireland, with the biggest headache as far as Ireland is concerned. We and Ireland will be having our cake and eating it by not enforcing the border. That is why the EU is desperate to tie down the ludicrous backstop now.

So the Irish government is only pretending it wants a backstop, and will actually be really really pleased if the EU takes it out of the Withdrawal Agreement?

No.

Ireland doesn't want Brexit. It wants NI to remain bound as a member of the EU. However even if Brexit does happen then Ireland still won't enforce a hard border.

You're saying Ireland _isn't_ pretending it wants a backstop? Ireland really does want a backstop?

Yes. 100%.

It wants a deadline by which it has to stop having its cake and eating it?

Can't you ring up Mr Varadkar and explain all this to him, and then the whole problem will be solved?

It doesn't want to be in a position where it is compelled to eat cake and have it too.

Or looking at it another way, a position where it is compelled to choose between having a hard border with Northern Ireland and breaking its treaty obligations to the European Union?

That would certainly make Ireland's position more comprehensible than your cake metaphor.

Philip_Thompson

Chris said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Chris said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Chris said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Chris said:

Philip_Thompson said:

FPT to RCS

rcs1000 said:

Philip_Thompson said:

There will be no need for a backstop as there will be no hard border in Ireland. That is why this is a ludicrous and obvious bluff.

Do you mean there will be no customs checks or enforcement, like between France and Belgium, or there will be passport checks, like between Switzerland and France?

I mean there will be no checks.

Ireland has no intention to enforce the border even in a no deal scenario.
The UK has no intention to enforce the border even in a no deal scenario.
The EU has no ability to enforce the border even in a no deal scenario.

If a no deal scenario actually happens and the border remains open then it is the EU, not the UK or Ireland, with the biggest headache as far as Ireland is concerned. We and Ireland will be having our cake and eating it by not enforcing the border. That is why the EU is desperate to tie down the ludicrous backstop now.

So the Irish government is only pretending it wants a backstop, and will actually be really really pleased if the EU takes it out of the Withdrawal Agreement?

No.

Ireland doesn't want Brexit. It wants NI to remain bound as a member of the EU. However even if Brexit does happen then Ireland still won't enforce a hard border.

You're saying Ireland _isn't_ pretending it wants a backstop? Ireland really does want a backstop?

Yes. 100%.

It wants a deadline by which it has to stop having its cake and eating it?

Can't you ring up Mr Varadkar and explain all this to him, and then the whole problem will be solved?

It doesn't want to be in a position where it is compelled to eat cake and have it too.

Or looking at it another way, a position where it is compelled to choose between having a hard border with Northern Ireland and breaking its treaty obligations to the European Union?

That would certainly make Ireland's position more comprehensible than your cake metaphor.

Same thing. The whole cake metaphor has been invoked all along this process to mean that.

But if a no deal scenario happens then Ireland will break its obligations before it erects a border. If the UK doesn't come to heel then the only way to get out of the mess will be a deal which means no backstop.

Morris_Dancer

Guten Abend, meine Freunde.

kinabalu

That's a big lead for May over Corbyn. Bet she's itching to call a general election. Because just imagine if you can the deep and intensely personal sense of redemption, vindication, potency, triumph and euphoria with which her entire being would be suffused if she does so and wins an overall majority of, say, 50 seats. Imagine her at Tory HQ the morning after being cheered to the rafters and given the bumps by hordes of delirious shiny-eyed activists almost as if she were a winning FA Cup final manager. Perhaps you can't imagine it, but I assure you that she can. She thinks of little else. Keeps it secret no doubt, probably not even told hubby, but she is obsessed with the idea. Snap election to break the impasse on the deal. This is why she isn't trying that hard to get it through. In fact she is not trying at all, she's only pretending to. She likes the impasse. She wants to be forced to call a general election. Well, sorry but the secret's out now. We all know what her little game is. She is BUSTED.

SouthamObserver

Philip_Thompson said:

Chris said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Chris said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Chris said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Chris said:

Philip_Thompson said:

FPT to RCS

rcs1000 said:

Philip_Thompson said:

There will be no need for a backstop as there will be no hard border in Ireland. That is why this is a ludicrous and obvious bluff.

Do you mean there will be no customs checks or enforcement, like between France and Belgium, or there will be passport checks, like between Switzerland and France?

I mean there will be no checks.

Ireland has no intention to enforce the border even in a no deal scenario.
The UK has no intention to enforce the border even in a no deal scenario.
The EU has no ability to enforce the border even in a no deal scenario.

If a no deal scenario actually happens and the border remains open then it is the EU, not the UK or Ireland, with the biggest headache as far as Ireland is concerned. We and Ireland will be having our cake and eating it by not enforcing the border. That is why the EU is desperate to tie down the ludicrous backstop now.

So the Irish government is only pretending it wants a backstop, and will actually be really really pleased if the EU takes it out of the Withdrawal Agreement?

No.

Ireland doesn't want Brexit. It wants NI to remain bound as a member of the EU. However even if Brexit does happen then Ireland still won't enforce a hard border.

You're saying Ireland _isn't_ pretending it wants a backstop? Ireland really does want a backstop?

Yes. 100%.

It wants a deadline by which it has to stop having its cake and eating it?

Can't you ring up Mr Varadkar and explain all this to him, and then the whole problem will be solved?

It doesn't want to be in a position where it is compelled to eat cake and have it too.

Or looking at it another way, a position where it is compelled to choose between having a hard border with Northern Ireland and breaking its treaty obligations to the European Union?

That would certainly make Ireland's position more comprehensible than your cake metaphor.

Same thing. The whole cake metaphor has been invoked all along this process to mean that.

But if a no deal scenario happens then Ireland will break its obligations before it erects a border. If the UK doesn't come to heel then the only way to get out of the mess will be a deal which means no backstop.

I agree that the Irish are not going to put up any barriers when we go to No Deal. They would be mad to. But that is not going to help the UK.

SouthamObserver

Of course, there is a very simple solution to the backstop issue. Ask the people of Northern Ireland whether they are OK with it applying just to them. The reason this is not going to happen is because they will supply the wrong answer: Yes.

Anorak

Help! To the accountants and business owners on here:

Does anyone know how long it takes to get a certificate of tax residency for a limited company?

Bloody Indian bureaucracy screwing up my cash flow...

eek

notme2 said:

eek said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/robfordmancs/status/1092439636188778497

And your typical Labour Northern Leave seat would vote Labour even if the candidate was a half-dead baboon provided said baboon was wearing a Red Rosette.

The voters of Copeland and Middlesbrough say otherwise....

Boro has always been a labour seat, and Stockton South is in many ways a North Yorkshire seat.

Assuming you actually mean Redcar than 2010 was a very poorly timed election locally (with the closure of the steelworks) and it returned to Labour in 2015...

dixiedean

kinabalu said:

That's a big lead for May over Corbyn. Bet she's itching to call a general election. Because just imagine if you can the deep and intensely personal sense of redemption, vindication, potency, triumph and euphoria with which her entire being would be suffused if she does so and wins an overall majority of, say, 50 seats. Imagine her at Tory HQ the morning after being cheered to the rafters and given the bumps by hordes of delirious shiny-eyed activists almost as if she were a winning FA Cup final manager. Perhaps you can't imagine it, but I assure you that she can. She thinks of little else. Keeps it secret no doubt, probably not even told hubby, but she is obsessed with the idea. Snap election to break the impasse on the deal. This is why she isn't trying that hard to get it through. In fact she is not trying at all, she's only pretending to. She likes the impasse. She wants to be forced to call a general election. Well, sorry but the secret's out now. We all know what her little game is. She is BUSTED.

You may be onto something there. I would similarly love to play up front for Everton and score a hat trick in a Mersey Derby.
Fortunately, saner forces are preventing me having a go.

Big_G_NorthWales

Philip_Thompson said:

TOPPING said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Chris said:

Philip_Thompson said:

FPT to RCS

rcs1000 said:

Philip_Thompson said:

There will be no need for a backstop as there will be no hard border in Ireland. That is why this is a ludicrous and obvious bluff.

Do you mean there will be no customs checks or enforcement, like between France and Belgium, or there will be passport checks, like between Switzerland and France?

I mean there will be no checks.

Ireland has no intention to enforce the border even in a no deal scenario.
The UK has no intention to enforce the border even in a no deal scenario.
The EU has no ability to enforce the border even in a no deal scenario.

If a no deal scenario actually happens and the border remains open then it is the EU, not the UK or Ireland, with the biggest headache as far as Ireland is concerned. We and Ireland will be having our cake and eating it by not enforcing the border. That is why the EU is desperate to tie down the ludicrous backstop now.

So the Irish government is only pretending it wants a backstop, and will actually be really really pleased if the EU takes it out of the Withdrawal Agreement?

No.

Ireland doesn't want Brexit. It wants NI to remain bound as a member of the EU. However even if Brexit does happen then Ireland still won't enforce a hard border.

Jesus (Jaysus) H Christ will you please take some time to understand who will or won't erect a hard border in Northern Ireland.

Nobody will. End of story.

The EU will if we no deal. They will have no choice. I think this game of chicken is very dangerous because in both deal and no deal the EU have to agree a solution for the border

And I do not support ERG at all, in case I am accused, as I was yesterday believe or not, of being a hard brexiteer

Dadge

Philip_Thompson said:

Dadge said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Chris said:

Philip_Thompson said:

FPT to RCS

rcs1000 said:

Philip_Thompson said:

There will be no need for a backstop as there will be no hard border in Ireland. That is why this is a ludicrous and obvious bluff.

Do you mean there will be no customs checks or enforcement, like between France and Belgium, or there will be passport checks, like between Switzerland and France?

I mean there will be no checks.

Ireland has no intention to enforce the border even in a no deal scenario.
The UK has no intention to enforce the border even in a no deal scenario.
The EU has no ability to enforce the border even in a no deal scenario.

If a no deal scenario actually happens and the border remains open then it is the EU, not the UK or Ireland, with the biggest headache as far as Ireland is concerned. We and Ireland will be having our cake and eating it by not enforcing the border. That is why the EU is desperate to tie down the ludicrous backstop now.

So the Irish government is only pretending it wants a backstop, and will actually be really really pleased if the EU takes it out of the Withdrawal Agreement?

No.

Ireland doesn't want Brexit. It wants NI to remain bound as a member of the EU. However even if Brexit does happen then Ireland still won't enforce a hard border.

What choice will Ireland have? Without any immigration, customs and tariff agreements, border checkpoints will be needed where (some if not all) passports and goods are checked.

And if they point blank refuse to do so, then who is going to force the matter and how?

I assume that the EU would take Ireland to court since it would be in breach of its responsibilities. It would probably also be necessary to instigate checks of goods and people from Ireland to the rest of the EU.

dixiedean

eek said:

notme2 said:

eek said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/robfordmancs/status/1092439636188778497

And your typical Labour Northern Leave seat would vote Labour even if the candidate was a half-dead baboon provided said baboon was wearing a Red Rosette.

The voters of Copeland and Middlesbrough say otherwise....

Boro has always been a labour seat, and Stockton South is in many ways a North Yorkshire seat.

Assuming you actually mean Redcar than 2010 was a very poorly timed election locally (with the closure of the steelworks) and it returned to Labour in 2015...

I think he means Boro S and Cleveland East. Which is a relatively small bit of Boro, and a rather larger bit of rural area similar politically to N Yorkshire.

kinabalu

dixiedean said:

You may be onto something there. I would similarly love to play up front for Everton and score a hat trick in a Mersey Derby.
Fortunately, saner forces are preventing me having a go.

Yes, that is the big difference. She can pick herself regardless of ability or form.

Dadge

SouthamObserver said:

Of course, there is a very simple solution to the backstop issue. Ask the people of Northern Ireland whether they are OK with it applying just to them. The reason this is not going to happen is because they will supply the wrong answer: Yes.

This is a good point that journalists skirt over. The DUP is holding us all to ransom.

Big_G_NorthWales

kinabalu said:

That's a big lead for May over Corbyn. Bet she's itching to call a general election. Because just imagine if you can the deep and intensely personal sense of redemption, vindication, potency, triumph and euphoria with which her entire being would be suffused if she does so and wins an overall majority of, say, 50 seats. Imagine her at Tory HQ the morning after being cheered to the rafters and given the bumps by hordes of delirious shiny-eyed activists almost as if she were a winning FA Cup final manager. Perhaps you can't imagine it, but I assure you that she can. She thinks of little else. Keeps it secret no doubt, probably not even told hubby, but she is obsessed with the idea. Snap election to break the impasse on the deal. This is why she isn't trying that hard to get it through. In fact she is not trying at all, she's only pretending to. She likes the impasse. She wants to be forced to call a general election. Well, sorry but the secret's out now. We all know what her little game is. She is BUSTED.

With respect you do seem to be willing a GE but it is not in TM power to call one. The cabinet would not support it and nor would her mps, and without them you cannot get 434 mps to vote for dissolution

Peter_the_Punter

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Philip_Thompson said:

TOPPING said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Chris said:

Philip_Thompson said:

FPT to RCS

rcs1000 said:

Philip_Thompson said:

There will be no need for a backstop as there will be no hard border in Ireland. That is why this is a ludicrous and obvious bluff.

Do you mean there will be no customs checks or enforcement, like between France and Belgium, or there will be passport checks, like between Switzerland and France?

I mean there will be no checks.

Ireland has no intention to enforce the border even in a no deal scenario.
The UK has no intention to enforce the border even in a no deal scenario.
The EU has no ability to enforce the border even in a no deal scenario.

If a no deal scenario actually happens and the border remains open then it is the EU, not the UK or Ireland, with the biggest headache as far as Ireland is concerned. We and Ireland will be having our cake and eating it by not enforcing the border. That is why the EU is desperate to tie down the ludicrous backstop now.

So the Irish government is only pretending it wants a backstop, and will actually be really really pleased if the EU takes it out of the Withdrawal Agreement?

No.

Ireland doesn't want Brexit. It wants NI to remain bound as a member of the EU. However even if Brexit does happen then Ireland still won't enforce a hard border.

Jesus (Jaysus) H Christ will you please take some time to understand who will or won't erect a hard border in Northern Ireland.

Nobody will. End of story.

The EU will if we no deal. They will have no choice. I think this game of chicken is very dangerous because in both deal and no deal the EU have to agree a solution for the border

And I do not support ERG at all, in case I am accused, as I was yesterday believe or not, of being a hard brexiteer

Lol! Don't take it to heart, Big G. We're all called some odd things on here from time to time. I was once referred to as a 'right-wing Cockney'. Moi!

eek

Dadge said:

SouthamObserver said:

Of course, there is a very simple solution to the backstop issue. Ask the people of Northern Ireland whether they are OK with it applying just to them. The reason this is not going to happen is because they will supply the wrong answer: Yes.

This is a good point that journalists skirt over. The DUP is holding us all to ransom.

And I suspect the end result of that ransom will be a border vote and a united Ireland. The DUP are sadly not bright enough to see that consequence...

SouthamObserver

Dadge said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Dadge said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Chris said:

Philip_Thompson said:

FPT to RCS

rcs1000 said:

Philip_Thompson said:

There will be no need for a backstop as there will be no hard border in Ireland. That is why this is a ludicrous and obvious bluff.

Do you mean there will be no customs checks or enforcement, like between France and Belgium, or there will be passport checks, like between Switzerland and France?

I mean there will be no checks.

Ireland has no intention to enforce the border even in a no deal scenario.
The UK has no intention to enforce the border even in a no deal scenario.
The EU has no ability to enforce the border even in a no deal scenario.

If a no deal scenario actually happens and the border remains open then it is the EU, not the UK or Ireland, with the biggest headache as far as Ireland is concerned. We and Ireland will be having our cake and eating it by not enforcing the border. That is why the EU is desperate to tie down the ludicrous backstop now.

So the Irish government is only pretending it wants a backstop, and will actually be really really pleased if the EU takes it out of the Withdrawal Agreement?

No.

Ireland doesn't want Brexit. It wants NI to remain bound as a member of the EU. However even if Brexit does happen then Ireland still won't enforce a hard border.

What choice will Ireland have? Without any immigration, customs and tariff agreements, border checkpoints will be needed where (some if not all) passports and goods are checked.

And if they point blank refuse to do so, then who is going to force the matter and how?

I assume that the EU would take Ireland to court since it would be in breach of its responsibilities. It would probably also be necessary to instigate checks of goods and people from Ireland to the rest of the EU.

Taking Ireland to court will take longer than it takes the UK to come back to the table to ask for a deal. As for checks, they are going to be happening anyway given that most Irish goods are exported to the EU via the UK.

Peter_the_Punter

dixiedean said:

kinabalu said:

That's a big lead for May over Corbyn. Bet she's itching to call a general election. Because just imagine if you can the deep and intensely personal sense of redemption, vindication, potency, triumph and euphoria with which her entire being would be suffused if she does so and wins an overall majority of, say, 50 seats. Imagine her at Tory HQ the morning after being cheered to the rafters and given the bumps by hordes of delirious shiny-eyed activists almost as if she were a winning FA Cup final manager. Perhaps you can't imagine it, but I assure you that she can. She thinks of little else. Keeps it secret no doubt, probably not even told hubby, but she is obsessed with the idea. Snap election to break the impasse on the deal. This is why she isn't trying that hard to get it through. In fact she is not trying at all, she's only pretending to. She likes the impasse. She wants to be forced to call a general election. Well, sorry but the secret's out now. We all know what her little game is. She is BUSTED.

You may be onto something there. I would similarly love to play up front for Everton and score a hat trick in a Mersey Derby.
Fortunately, saner forces are preventing me having a go.

But didn't you do that once, Mr Dean?

Wait a minute, you're not the real Dixie Dean....? Pshah!

kinabalu

Dadge said:

This is a good point that journalists skirt over. The DUP is holding us all to ransom.

They are. Or their influence is perniciously disproportionate let's just say that.

One of the (IMO many) strong arguments for a general election sooner rather than later is that there is a good chance of this situation being rectified.

eek

dixiedean said:

eek said:

notme2 said:

eek said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/robfordmancs/status/1092439636188778497

And your typical Labour Northern Leave seat would vote Labour even if the candidate was a half-dead baboon provided said baboon was wearing a Red Rosette.

The voters of Copeland and Middlesbrough say otherwise....

Boro has always been a labour seat, and Stockton South is in many ways a North Yorkshire seat.

Assuming you actually mean Redcar than 2010 was a very poorly timed election locally (with the closure of the steelworks) and it returned to Labour in 2015...

I think he means Boro S and Cleveland East. Which is a relatively small bit of Boro, and a rather larger bit of rural area similar politically to N Yorkshire.

And even the Boro bits are posher than the other parts...

Dadge

SouthamObserver said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Chris said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Chris said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Chris said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Chris said:

Philip_Thompson said:

I mean there will be no checks.

Ireland has no intention to enforce the border even in a no deal scenario.
The UK has no intention to enforce the border even in a no deal scenario.
The EU has no ability to enforce the border even in a no deal scenario.

If a no deal scenario actually happens and the border remains open then it is the EU, not the UK or Ireland, with the biggest headache as far as Ireland is concerned. We and Ireland will be having our cake and eating it by not enforcing the border. That is why the EU is desperate to tie down the ludicrous backstop now.

So the Irish government is only pretending it wants a backstop, and will actually be really really pleased if the EU takes it out of the Withdrawal Agreement?

No.

Ireland doesn't want Brexit. It wants NI to remain bound as a member of the EU. However even if Brexit does happen then Ireland still won't enforce a hard border.

You're saying Ireland _isn't_ pretending it wants a backstop? Ireland really does want a backstop?

Yes. 100%.

It wants a deadline by which it has to stop having its cake and eating it?

Can't you ring up Mr Varadkar and explain all this to him, and then the whole problem will be solved?

It doesn't want to be in a position where it is compelled to eat cake and have it too.

Or looking at it another way, a position where it is compelled to choose between having a hard border with Northern Ireland and breaking its treaty obligations to the European Union?

That would certainly make Ireland's position more comprehensible than your cake metaphor.

Same thing. The whole cake metaphor has been invoked all along this process to mean that.

But if a no deal scenario happens then Ireland will break its obligations before it erects a border. If the UK doesn't come to heel then the only way to get out of the mess will be a deal which means no backstop.

I agree that the Irish are not going to put up any barriers when we go to No Deal. They would be mad to. But that is not going to help the UK.

This is very naive. If what you say is true, May and co would not have wasted any time on the border issue. If we leave without a deal, there will be chaos at the border. Not overnight, but the EU (and to a lesser extent the UK) will act over the summer to plug the hole.

SouthamObserver

Dadge said:

SouthamObserver said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Chris said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Chris said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Chris said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Chris said:

Philip_Thompson said:

I mean there will be no checks.

Ireland has no intention to enforce the border even in a no deal scenario.
The UK has no intention to enforce the border even in a no deal scenario.
The EU has no ability to enforce the border even in a no deal scenario.

If a no deal scenario actually happens and the border remains open then it is the EU, not the UK or Ireland, with the biggest headache as far as Ireland is concerned. We and Ireland will be having our cake and eating it by not enforcing the border. That is why the EU is desperate to tie down the ludicrous backstop now.

So the Irish government is only pretending it wants a backstop, and will actually be really really pleased if the EU takes it out of the Withdrawal Agreement?

No.

Ireland doesn't want Brexit. It wants NI to remain bound as a member of the EU. However even if Brexit does happen then Ireland still won't enforce a hard border.

You're saying Ireland _isn't_ pretending it wants a backstop? Ireland really does want a backstop?

Yes. 100%.

It wants a deadline by which it has to stop having its cake and eating it?

Can't you ring up Mr Varadkar and explain all this to him, and then the whole problem will be solved?

It doesn't want to be in a position where it is compelled to eat cake and have it too.

Or looking at it breaking its treaty obligations to the European Union?

That would certainly make Ireland's position more comprehensible than your cake metaphor.

Same thing. The whole cake metaphor has been invoked all along this process to mean that.

But if a no deal scenario happens then Ireland will break its obligations before it erects a border. If the UK doesn't come to heel then the only way to get out of the mess will be a deal which means no backstop.

I agree that the Irish are not going to put up any barriers when we go to No Deal. They would be mad to. But that is not going to help the UK.

This is very naive. If what you say is true, May and co would not have wasted any time on the border issue. If we leave without a deal, there will be chaos at the border. Not overnight, but the EU (and to a lesser extent the UK) will act over the summer to plug the hole.

It won’t get to the summer. For Ireland no deal really is better than a bad deal.

DougSeal

Has no-one considered the possibility that, for understandable historical reasons, the Irish Government may not trust a gentleman's agreement with the UK not to erect a hard border?

Charles

Chris said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Chris said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Chris said:

Philip_Thompson said:

FPT to RCS

rcs1000 said:

Philip_Thompson said:

There will be no need for a backstop as there will be no hard border in Ireland. That is why this is a ludicrous and obvious bluff.

Do you mean there will be no customs checks or enforcement, like between France and Belgium, or there will be passport checks, like between Switzerland and France?

I mean there will be no checks.

Ireland has no intention to enforce the border even in a no deal scenario.
The UK has no intention to enforce the border even in a no deal scenario.
The EU has no ability to enforce the border even in a no deal scenario.

If a no deal scenario actually happens and the border remains open then it is the EU, not the UK or Ireland, with the biggest headache as far as Ireland is concerned. We and Ireland will be having our cake and eating it by not enforcing the border. That is why the EU is desperate to tie down the ludicrous backstop now.

So the Irish government is only pretending it wants a backstop, and will actually be really really pleased if the EU takes it out of the Withdrawal Agreement?

No.

Ireland doesn't want Brexit. It wants NI to remain bound as a member of the EU. However even if Brexit does happen then Ireland still won't enforce a hard border.

You're saying Ireland _isn't_ pretending it wants a backstop? Ireland really does want a backstop?

Yes. 100%.

It wants a deadline by which it has to stop having its cake and eating it?

Can't you ring up Mr Varadkar and explain all this to him, and then the whole problem will be solved?

A backstop pushes the problem to the U.K. no backstop creates a risk for Ireland

kinabalu

Big_G_NorthWales said:

With respect you do seem to be willing a GE but it is not in TM power to call one. The cabinet would not support it and nor would her mps, and without them you cannot get 434 mps to vote for dissolution

I disagree with you there. I reckon as a last resort (if no 'tory brexit' can be approved by this parliament) she might well be able to get a GE passed.

However, on balance, I see the deal passing (eventually) without one.

Peter_the_Punter

Anorak said:

Help! To the accountants and business owners on here:

Does anyone know how long it takes to get a certificate of tax residency for a limited company?

Bloody Indian bureaucracy screwing up my cash flow...

I assume you want a Certificate to satisfy the Indian Tax Authorities?

I used to have this problem from time to time and it's slightly awkward because there is no official certificate as such and the Indians (and others) seem to assume there is. I used to find the problem was best solved by a letter from HMRC stating that your company is resident in the UK for Corporation Tax purposes. Best phone your tax inspector first to see if they are willing to provide such a letter. Explain the difficulty and they are likely(but not obliged) to help. I found it helped if I drafted the letter myself and sent a blank to them and they would just repeat the wording. That saves them hassle and as long as you word it sensibly they will just repeat it on headed notepaper. That usually works.

Your tax advisors could organise this for you but will charge you like a wounded rhino, and probably cock it up. Best to do it yourself.

Big_G_NorthWales

Peter_the_Punter said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Philip_Thompson said:

TOPPING said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Chris said:

Philip_Thompson said:

FPT to RCS

rcs1000 said:

Philip_Thompson said:

There will be no need for a backstop as there will be no hard border in Ireland. That is why this is a ludicrous and obvious bluff.

Do you mean there will be no customs checks or enforcement, like between France and Belgium, or there will be passport checks, like between Switzerland and France?

I mean there will be no checks.

Ireland has no intention to enforce the border even in a no deal scenario.
The UK has no intention to enforce the border even in a no deal scenario.
The EU has no ability to enforce the border even in a no deal scenario.

If a no deal scenario actually happens and the border remains open then it is the EU, not the UK or Ireland, with the biggest headache as far as Ireland is concerned. We and Ireland will be having our cake and eating it by not enforcing the border. That is why the EU is desperate to tie down the ludicrous backstop now.

So the Irish government is only pretending it wants a backstop, and will actually be really really pleased if the EU takes it out of the Withdrawal Agreement?

No.

Ireland doesn't want Brexit. It wants NI to remain bound as a member of the EU. However even if Brexit does happen then Ireland still won't enforce a hard border.

Jesus (Jaysus) H Christ will you please take some time to understand who will or won't erect a hard border in Northern Ireland.

Nobody will. End of story.

The EU will if we no deal. They will have no choice. I think this game of chicken is very dangerous because in both deal and no deal the EU have to agree a solution for the border

And I do not support ERG at all, in case I am accused, as I was yesterday believe or not, of being a hard brexiteer

Lol! Don't take it to heart, Big G. We're all called some odd things on here from time to time. I was once referred to as a 'right-wing Cockney'. Moi!

I was surprised but I also understand the anger of some remainers who on the odd occasion go over the top and hit out

eek

https://twitter.com/GuidoFawkes/status/1092453904678301697

RobD

DougSeal said:

Has no-one considered the possibility that, for understandable historical reasons, the Irish Government may not trust a gentleman's agreement with the UK not to erect a hard border?

Welcome to PB. I don’t see a strong desire on the UK’s side (or anyone’s) for a border. Sounds as though the EU are the only one who’d force the issue.

Charles

Dadge said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Dadge said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Chris said:

Philip_Thompson said:

FPT to RCS

rcs1000 said:

Philip_Thompson said:

There will be no need for a backstop as there will be no hard border in Ireland. That is why this is a ludicrous and obvious bluff.

Do you mean there will be no customs checks or enforcement, like between France and Belgium, or there will be passport checks, like between Switzerland and France?

I mean there will be no checks.

Ireland has no intention to enforce the border even in a no deal scenario.
The UK has no intention to enforce the border even in a no deal scenario.
The EU has no ability to enforce the border even in a no deal scenario.

If a no deal scenario actually happens and the border remains open then it is the EU, not the UK or Ireland, with the biggest headache as far as Ireland is concerned. We and Ireland will be having our cake and eating it by not enforcing the border. That is why the EU is desperate to tie down the ludicrous backstop now.

So the Irish government is only pretending it wants a backstop, and will actually be really really pleased if the EU takes it out of the Withdrawal Agreement?

No.

Ireland doesn't want Brexit. It wants NI to remain bound as a member of the EU. However even if Brexit does happen then Ireland still won't enforce a hard border.

What choice will Ireland have? Without any immigration, customs and tariff agreements, border checkpoints will be needed where (some if not all) passports and goods are checked.

And if they point blank refuse to do so, then who is going to force the matter and how?

I assume that the EU would take Ireland to court since it would be in breach of its responsibilities. It would probably also be necessary to instigate checks of goods and people from Ireland to the rest of the EU.

If it wasn’t for the history that would be the logical outcome

TOPPING

Philip_Thompson said:

TOPPING said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Chris said:

Philip_Thompson said:

FPT to RCS

rcs1000 said:

Philip_Thompson said:

There will be no need for a backstop as there will be no hard border in Ireland. That is why this is a ludicrous and obvious bluff.

Do you mean there will be no customs checks or enforcement, like between France and Belgium, or there will be passport checks, like between Switzerland and France?

I mean there will be no checks.

Ireland has no intention to enforce the border even in a no deal scenario.
The UK has no intention to enforce the border even in a no deal scenario.
The EU has no ability to enforce the border even in a no deal scenario.

If a no deal scenario actually happens and the border remains open then it is the EU, not the UK or Ireland, with the biggest headache as far as Ireland is concerned. We and Ireland will be having our cake and eating it by not enforcing the border. That is why the EU is desperate to tie down the ludicrous backstop now.

So the Irish government is only pretending it wants a backstop, and will actually be really really pleased if the EU takes it out of the Withdrawal Agreement?

No.

Ireland doesn't want Brexit. It wants NI to remain bound as a member of the EU. However even if Brexit does happen then Ireland still won't enforce a hard border.

Jesus (Jaysus) H Christ will you please take some time to understand who will or won't erect a hard border in Northern Ireland.

Nobody will. End of story.

I mean Phil, I think your presence on here is interesting enough in that it gives us an insight into the mind of people such as yourself, of whom I think there are many.

But when your posts are so devoid of understanding, and exhibit such transparent ignorance, it is difficult to take you seriously.

As one final effort, although god knows why I persist, I will point you in the direction of the answer which is WTO MFN.

All yours now - good luck!

Philip_Thompson

SouthamObserver said:

Philip_Thompson said:

But if a no deal scenario happens then Ireland will break its obligations before it erects a border. If the UK doesn't come to heel then the only way to get out of the mess will be a deal which means no backstop.

I agree that the Irish are not going to put up any barriers when we go to No Deal. They would be mad to. But that is not going to help the UK.

Yes it does help the UK as (so long as we don't fold) it gives us immense leverage. The only way to solve the problem - and it will be a problem for the EU - will be to get a deal. Only way to get a deal is to get both sides to agree. We wont agree if there is a backstop.

The EU will need the Irish border issue dealing with us in that scenario more than us. The integrity of the UK will be intact but the integrity of the Single Market won't be. A standstill transition minus the backstop is a fudge that will kick the can down the road and remove the immediate headache for the EU while concentrating minds on both sides to find a real solution.

dixiedean

Meanwhile, what Nissan were promised in 2016 is revealed.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/feb/04/government-letter-to-nissan-reveals-brexit-promise-to-carmarkers

Big_G_NorthWales

kinabalu said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

With respect you do seem to be willing a GE but it is not in TM power to call one. The cabinet would not support it and nor would her mps, and without them you cannot get 434 mps to vote for dissolution

I disagree with you there. I reckon as a last resort (if no 'tory brexit' can be approved by this parliament) she might well be able to get a GE passed.

However, on balance, I see the deal passing (eventually) without one.

She will not get it passed her party judging by the near hysteria from her mps on twitter. The only way is through another vonc but even that may not result in a GE

DavidL

eek said:

https://twitter.com/GuidoFawkes/status/1092453904678301697

Well that's bewildering. My understanding is that the argument is that the GFA requires a back stop, not that it contravenes it.

RobD

dixiedean said:

Meanwhile, what Nissan were promised in 2016 is revealed.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/feb/04/government-letter-to-nissan-reveals-brexit-promise-to-carmarkers

Clark’s promise cannot be met because no Brexit deal has been struck with the European Union,

Cannot? There’s a deal on the table, isn’t there?

AlastairMeeks

It's a healthy relative lead but it doesn't look particularly strong or stable.

Big_G_NorthWales

Sky breaking news

Lord Trimble to take government to court to get the backstop protocol removed from the deal

Charles

TOPPING said:

Philip_Thompson said:

TOPPING said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Chris said:

Philip_Thompson said:

FPT to RCS

rcs1000 said:

Philip_Thompson said:

There will be no need for a backstop as there will be no hard border in Ireland. That is why this is a ludicrous and obvious bluff.

Do you mean there will be no customs checks or enforcement, like between France and Belgium, or there will be passport checks, like between Switzerland and France?

I mean there will be no checks.

Ireland has no intention to enforce the border even in a no deal scenario.
The UK has no intention to enforce the border even in a no deal scenario.
The EU has no ability to enforce the border even in a no deal scenario.

If a no deal scenario actually happens and the border remains open then it is the EU, not the UK or Ireland, with the biggest headache as far as Ireland is concerned. We and Ireland will be having our cake and eating it by not enforcing the border. That is why the EU is desperate to tie down the ludicrous backstop now.

So the Irish government is only pretending it wants a backstop, and will actually be really really pleased if the EU takes it out of the Withdrawal Agreement?

No.

Ireland doesn't want Brexit. It wants NI to remain bound as a member of the EU. However even if Brexit does happen then Ireland still won't enforce a hard border.

Jesus (Jaysus) H Christ will you please take some time to understand who will or won't erect a hard border in Northern Ireland.

Nobody will. End of story.

I mean Phil, I think your presence on here is interesting enough in that it gives us an insight into the mind of people such as yourself, of whom I think there are many.

But when your posts are so devoid of understanding, and exhibit such transparent ignorance, it is difficult to take you seriously.

As one final effort, although god knows why I persist, I will point you in the direction of the answer which is WTO MFN.

All yours now - good luck!

Although as @SouthamObserver points out the Irish lobby in the US is so strong they wouldn’t want to sue us because that might require a hard border

gypsumfantastic

Guys I think I've come across a workable Brexit compromise

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tyyoaBa7DaE

Scott_P

https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1092452909227409408

RobD

DavidL said:

eek said:

https://twitter.com/GuidoFawkes/status/1092453904678301697

Well that's bewildering. My understanding is that the argument is that the GFA requires a back stop, not that it contravenes it.

What gives you that impression? There are only two tangential references to the EU in the entire document.

SouthamObserver

Philip_Thompson said:

SouthamObserver said:

Philip_Thompson said:

But if a no deal scenario happens then Ireland will break its obligations before it erects a border. If the UK doesn't come to heel then the only way to get out of the mess will be a deal which means no backstop.

I agree that the Irish are not going to put up any barriers when we go to No Deal. They would be mad to. But that is not going to help the UK.

Yes it does help the UK as (so long as we don't fold) it gives us immense leverage. The only way to solve the problem - and it will be a problem for the EU - will be to get a deal. Only way to get a deal is to get both sides to agree. We wont agree if there is a backstop.

The EU will need the Irish border issue dealing with us in that scenario more than us. The integrity of the UK will be intact but the integrity of the Single Market won't be. A standstill transition minus the backstop is a fudge that will kick the can down the road and remove the immediate headache for the EU while concentrating minds on both sides to find a real solution.

“If we don’t fold” is doing a hell of a lot of work in that scenario given what No Deal means for us.

gypsumfantastic

RobD said:

DavidL said:

eek said:

https://twitter.com/GuidoFawkes/status/1092453904678301697

Well that's bewildering. My understanding is that the argument is that the GFA requires a back stop, not that it contravenes it.

What gives you that impression? There are only two tangential references to the EU in the entire document.

The important thing for the Irish government, and also the British government until it welched on its deal last week, is that the GFA requires no change in the constitutional status of NI without a border poll.

Brexit is a pretty damn significant change.

kinabalu

Big_G_NorthWales said:

She will not get it passed her party judging by the near hysteria from her mps on twitter. The only way is through another vonc but even that may not result in a GE

So what do you think her 'last resort' move is if her deal is irredeemably blocked by parliament?

DavidL

RobD said:

DavidL said:

eek said:

https://twitter.com/GuidoFawkes/status/1092453904678301697

Well that's bewildering. My understanding is that the argument is that the GFA requires a back stop, not that it contravenes it.

What gives you that impression? There are only two tangential references to the EU in the entire document.

I'm not saying I agree with the argument but that is what is said. It is claimed that it was implied that we would do nothing to impede the free movement of goods and people in the island of Ireland and that means we need to agree something that has that effect, even if we leave the EU which essentially provided such a scenario.

For the backstop to be a breach of the GFA you would need to argue that it breaches the terms on which NI was going to remain in the UK. Not sure I am seeing that, tbh.

But its been weeks since we had a completely daft and irrelevant court case about some aspect of Brexit, so why not?

RobD

gypsumfantastic said:

RobD said:

DavidL said:

eek said:

https://twitter.com/GuidoFawkes/status/1092453904678301697

Well that's bewildering. My understanding is that the argument is that the GFA requires a back stop, not that it contravenes it.

What gives you that impression? There are only two tangential references to the EU in the entire document.

The important thing for the Irish government, and also the British government until it welched on its deal last week, is that the GFA requires no change in the constitutional status of NI without a border poll.

Brexit is a pretty damn significant change.

No change in its relationship with the U.K. though, unless a border poll is required for reach new EU treaty, for example. I don’t remember there being calls for one for Lisbon.

gypsumfantastic

kinabalu said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

She will not get it passed her party judging by the near hysteria from her mps on twitter. The only way is through another vonc but even that may not result in a GE

So what do you think her 'last resort' move is if her deal is irredeemably blocked by parliament?

One puppy, one revolver, one bullet.

eek

gypsumfantastic said:

RobD said:

DavidL said:

eek said:

https://twitter.com/GuidoFawkes/status/1092453904678301697

Well that's bewildering. My understanding is that the argument is that the GFA requires a back stop, not that it contravenes it.

What gives you that impression? There are only two tangential references to the EU in the entire document.

The important thing for the Irish government, and also the British government until it welched on its deal last week, is that the GFA requires no change in the constitutional status of NI without a border poll.

Brexit is a pretty damn significant change.

I wonder if there is a plan to use the GFA as the reason to Revoke A50....

AlastairMeeks

gypsumfantastic said:

kinabalu said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

She will not get it passed her party judging by the near hysteria from her mps on twitter. The only way is through another vonc but even that may not result in a GE

So what do you think her 'last resort' move is if her deal is irredeemably blocked by parliament?

One puppy, one revolver, one bullet.

Just a pound shop Cruella De Ville.

gypsumfantastic

RobD said:

gypsumfantastic said:

RobD said:

DavidL said:

eek said:

https://twitter.com/GuidoFawkes/status/1092453904678301697

Well that's bewildering. My understanding is that the argument is that the GFA requires a back stop, not that it contravenes it.

What gives you that impression? There are only two tangential references to the EU in the entire document.

The important thing for the Irish government, and also the British government until it welched on its deal last week, is that the GFA requires no change in the constitutional status of NI without a border poll.

Brexit is a pretty damn significant change.

No change in it’s relationship with the U.K. though, unless a border poll is required for reach new EU treaty, for example. I don’t remember there being calls for one for Lisbon.

But a pretty significant change in its relationship with the Republic, hence the concern.

In any case, it's relevant because the British government was committed to assuring there could be no return to a hard border. And until last week, when May suddenly reneged on her solemn promise and voted against the backstop she negotiated, maybe Ireland even believed the UK government meant it.

Verulamius

Peter_the_Punter said:

Anorak said:

Help! To the accountants and business owners on here:

Does anyone know how long it takes to get a certificate of tax residency for a limited company?

Bloody Indian bureaucracy screwing up my cash flow...

I assume you want a Certificate to satisfy the Indian Tax Authorities?

I used to have this problem from time to time and it's slightly awkward because there is no official certificate as such and the Indians (and others) seem to assume there is. I used to find the problem was best solved by a letter from HMRC stating that your company is resident in the UK for Corporation Tax purposes. Best phone your tax inspector first to see if they are willing to provide such a letter. Explain the difficulty and they are likely(but not obliged) to help. I found it helped if I drafted the letter myself and sent a blank to them and they would just repeat the wording. That saves them hassle and as long as you word it sensibly they will just repeat it on headed notepaper. That usually works.

Your tax advisors could organise this for you but will charge you like a wounded rhino, and probably cock it up. Best to do it yourself.

This is the HMRC web page for the relevant form.

https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/certificate-of-residence-application-letter-applications-only-res1

RobD

DavidL said:

RobD said:

DavidL said:

eek said:

https://twitter.com/GuidoFawkes/status/1092453904678301697

Well that's bewildering. My understanding is that the argument is that the GFA requires a back stop, not that it contravenes it.

What gives you that impression? There are only two tangential references to the EU in the entire document.

I'm not saying I agree with the argument but that is what is said. It is claimed that it was implied that we would do nothing to impede the free movement of goods and people in the island of Ireland and that means we need to agree something that has that effect, even if we leave the EU which essentially provided such a scenario.

For the backstop to be a breach of the GFA you would need to argue that it breaches the terms on which NI was going to remain in the UK. Not sure I am seeing that, tbh.

But its been weeks since we had a completely daft and irrelevant court case about some aspect of Brexit, so why not?

I don’t think it mentions anything about customs checks either. You are right that the concession won by May for the backstop to apply to the entire UK renders Trimble’s case a bit silly.

Big_G_NorthWales

kinabalu said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

She will not get it passed her party judging by the near hysteria from her mps on twitter. The only way is through another vonc but even that may not result in a GE

So what do you think her 'last resort' move is if her deal is irredeemably blocked by parliament?

Seek an extension to A50

gypsumfantastic

Big_G_NorthWales said:

kinabalu said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

She will not get it passed her party judging by the near hysteria from her mps on twitter. The only way is through another vonc but even that may not result in a GE

So what do you think her 'last resort' move is if her deal is irredeemably blocked by parliament?

Seek an extension to A50

This is the thing. For May, there is no such thing as a last resort. There's always a can to be kicked, for as long as we let her.

kinabalu

Philip_Thompson said:

Yes it does help the UK as (so long as we don't fold) it gives us immense leverage. The only way to solve the problem - and it will be a problem for the EU - will be to get a deal. Only way to get a deal is to get both sides to agree. We wont agree if there is a backstop.

The EU will need the Irish border issue dealing with us in that scenario more than us. The integrity of the UK will be intact but the integrity of the Single Market won't be. A standstill transition minus the backstop is a fudge that will kick the can down the road and remove the immediate headache for the EU while concentrating minds on both sides to find a real solution.

The EU will presumably fold then - bye bye backstop.

Let's see if they do.

Peter_the_Punter

Verulamius said:

Peter_the_Punter said:

Anorak said:

Help! To the accountants and business owners on here:

Does anyone know how long it takes to get a certificate of tax residency for a limited company?

Bloody Indian bureaucracy screwing up my cash flow...

I assume you want a Certificate to satisfy the Indian Tax Authorities?

I used to have this problem from time to time and it's slightly awkward because there is no official certificate as such and the Indians (and others) seem to assume there is. I used to find the problem was best solved by a letter from HMRC stating that your company is resident in the UK for Corporation Tax purposes. Best phone your tax inspector first to see if they are willing to provide such a letter. Explain the difficulty and they are likely(but not obliged) to help. I found it helped if I drafted the letter myself and sent a blank to them and they would just repeat the wording. That saves them hassle and as long as you word it sensibly they will just repeat it on headed notepaper. That usually works.

Your tax advisors could organise this for you but will charge you like a wounded rhino, and probably cock it up. Best to do it yourself.

This is the HMRC web page for the relevant form.

https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/certificate-of-residence-application-letter-applications-only-res1

Thanks Verulamius. That didn't exist in my day and is a welcome facility for many, I am sure.

OldKingCole

RobD said:

DavidL said:

RobD said:

DavidL said:

eek said:

https://twitter.com/GuidoFawkes/status/1092453904678301697

Well that's bewildering. My understanding is that the argument is that the GFA requires a back stop, not that it contravenes it.

What gives you that impression? There are only two tangential references to the EU in the entire document.

I'm not saying I agree with the argument but that is what is said. It is claimed that it was implied that we would do nothing to impede the free movement of goods and people in the island of Ireland and that means we need to agree something that has that effect, even if we leave the EU which essentially provided such a scenario.

For the backstop to be a breach of the GFA you would need to argue that it breaches the terms on which NI was going to remain in the UK. Not sure I am seeing that, tbh.

But its been weeks since we had a completely daft and irrelevant court case about some aspect of Brexit, so why not?

I don’t think it mentions anything about customs checks either. You are right that the concession won by May for the backstop to apply to the entire UK renders Trimble’s case a bit silly.

We are talking about a Unionist politician.

kinabalu

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Seek an extension to A50

To do what though?

Scott_P

eek said:

I wonder if there is a plan to use the GFA as the reason to Revoke A50....

That would be hilarious

TOPPING

Charles said:

TOPPING said:

Philip_Thompson said:

TOPPING said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Chris said:

Philip_Thompson said:

FPT to RCS

rcs1000 said:

Philip_Thompson said:

There will be no need for a backstop as there will be no hard border in Ireland. That is why this is a ludicrous and obvious bluff.

Do you mean there will be no customs checks or enforcement, like between France and Belgium, or there will be passport checks, like between Switzerland and France?

I mean there will be no checks.

Ireland has no intention to enforce the border even in a no deal scenario.
The UK has no intention to enforce the border even in a no deal scenario.
The EU has no ability to enforce the border even in a no deal scenario.

If a no deal scenario actually happens and the border remains open then it is the EU, not the UK or Ireland, with the biggest headache as far as Ireland is concerned. We and Ireland will be having our cake and eating it by not enforcing the border. That is why the EU is desperate to tie down the ludicrous backstop now.

So the Irish government is only pretending it wants a backstop, and will actually be really really pleased if the EU takes it out of the Withdrawal Agreement?

No.

Ireland doesn't want Brexit. It wants NI to remain bound as a member of the EU. However even if Brexit does happen then Ireland still won't enforce a hard border.

Jesus (Jaysus) H Christ will you please take some time to understand who will or won't erect a hard border in Northern Ireland.

Nobody will. End of story.

I mean Phil, I think your presence on here is interesting enough in that it gives us an insight into the mind of people such as yourself, of whom I think there are many.

But when your posts are so devoid of understanding, and exhibit such transparent ignorance, it is difficult to take you seriously.

As one final effort, although god knows why I persist, I will point you in the direction of the answer which is WTO MFN.

All yours now - good luck!

Although as @SouthamObserver points out the Irish lobby in the US is so strong they wouldn’t want to sue us because that might require a hard border

I have noted various shots across the bows from the US. The Trimble story is of course priceless. If it weren't so tragic.

gypsumfantastic

kinabalu said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Seek an extension to A50

To do what though?

If at first you don't concede,
Extend, extend again.

RobD

gypsumfantastic said:

RobD said:

gypsumfantastic said:

RobD said:

DavidL said:

eek said:

https://twitter.com/GuidoFawkes/status/1092453904678301697

Well that's bewildering. My understanding is that the argument is that the GFA requires a back stop, not that it contravenes it.

What gives you that impression? There are only two tangential references to the EU in the entire document.

The important thing for the Irish government, and also the British government until it welched on its deal last week, is that the GFA requires no change in the constitutional status of NI without a border poll.

Brexit is a pretty damn significant change.

No change in it’s relationship with the U.K. though, unless a border poll is required for reach new EU treaty, for example. I don’t remember there being calls for one for Lisbon.

But a pretty significant change in its relationship with the Republic, hence the concern.

In any case, it's relevant because the British government was committed to assuring there could be no return to a hard border. And until last week, when May suddenly reneged on her solemn promise and voted against the backstop she negotiated, maybe Ireland even believed the UK government meant it.

Does it explicitly prevent changes in arrangements between the UK and Ireland? I only remember clauses about a borde rpoll being necessary if it was thought there was a majority for joining Ireland.

As for May reneging the deal. Parliamentary theatre, probably to demonstrate once and for all that this is the only deal on the table.

gypsumfantastic

Scott_P said:

eek said:

I wonder if there is a plan to use the GFA as the reason to Revoke A50....

That would be hilarious

If we were being honest and rational, the government would have realised by last summer that it's impossible for the UK to honour May's red lines and the GFA, and made moves to start the reunification of Ireland.

Chris

kinabalu said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Seek an extension to A50

To do what though?

In order to seek a further extension 3 months later.

dixiedean

OldKingCole said:

RobD said:

DavidL said:

RobD said:

DavidL said:

eek said:

https://twitter.com/GuidoFawkes/status/1092453904678301697

Well that's bewildering. My understanding is that the argument is that the GFA requires a back stop, not that it contravenes it.

What gives you that impression? There are only two tangential references to the EU in the entire document.

I'm not saying I agree with the argument but that is what is said. It is claimed that it was implied that we would do nothing to impede the free movement of goods and people in the island of Ireland and that means we need to agree something that has that effect, even if we leave the EU which essentially provided such a scenario.

For the backstop to be a breach of the GFA you would need to argue that it breaches the terms on which NI was going to remain in the UK. Not sure I am seeing that, tbh.

But its been weeks since we had a completely daft and irrelevant court case about some aspect of Brexit, so why not?

I don’t think it mentions anything about customs checks either. You are right that the concession won by May for the backstop to apply to the entire UK renders Trimble’s case a bit silly.

We are talking about a Unionist politician.

Wasn't Trimble in the OUP. Aren't they Remainers? (I believe he's a Tory peer now).

gypsumfantastic

RobD said:

Does it explicitly prevent changes in arrangements between the UK and Ireland? I only remember clauses about a borde rpoll being necessary if it was thought there was a majority for joining Ireland.

Changes to the GFA need to be approved by a border poll too.

Big_G_NorthWales

The discussions to date have all been predictable over the deal, no deal, referendum, extension or revoke but with Lord Trimble's move today over a judicial review in respect of the backstop and the GFA we are entering a whole new world of uncertainty and maybe further referrals to the courts

And if the Court does rule it illegal under the GFA it must then put the EU into the legal mix as it is they who are insisting on it

This is never going to end

RobD

gypsumfantastic said:

RobD said:

Does it explicitly prevent changes in arrangements between the UK and Ireland? I only remember clauses about a borde rpoll being necessary if it was thought there was a majority for joining Ireland.

Changes to the GFA need to be approved by a border poll too.

But what needs to be changed?

gypsumfantastic

dixiedean said:

Wasn't Trimble in the OUP. Aren't they Remainers? (I believe he's a Tory peer now).

Yes, he's a remainer. He hopes that having the backstop ruled illegal will make Brexit legally impossible.

RobD

Big_G_NorthWales said:

The discussions to date have all been predictable over the deal, no deal, referendum, extension or revoke but with Lord Trimbles move today over avjudicial review in respect of the backstop and the GFA we are entering a whole new world of uncertainty and maybe further referrals to the courts

And if the Court does rule it illegal under the GFA it must then put the EU into the legal mix as it is they who are insisting on it

This is never going to end

Always darkest before the dawn, etc!

Chris

Trimble last April:
However, he maintained that the Good Friday Agreement was robust enough to weather the challenges of Brexit and that a solution would be easy.
“The Taoiseach, the Prime Minister, and somebody from Brussels who is in a position to take decisions, if those three people sat down around a table I suspect it wouldn’t take them more than half an hour to sort things out”.
https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/trimble-says-irish-brexit-challenges-could-be-solved-in-half-an-hour-1.3456791