politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Beto O’Rourke says he can’t decide whether to run for the Pres

kinabalu said:

Wants to be a teacher! Virtue well & truly signalled. Clever.

Without checking, I expect he means at university level.

Cyclefree said:

OblitusSumMe said:

Gary Younge articulating many of my thoughts on what is so wrong-headed about most Remainer rhetoric.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/feb/01/poorer-brexiters-worse-off-working-class-leavers

Yes it is. And the last two sentences nail it -

"Our challenge is not to mock, but to tell a better story. One that includes them, has a future for all of us and, ultimately, turns “them” and “us” into “we”."

Our politicians have failed to tell a story for all of us, or even try to do so.

It probably says something about my age, but I blame Blair for killing off the notion that politicians should try to tell a story to persuade people to change their minds, rather than to work out what platitudes the public want you to tell them.

justin124 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

A rainbow alliance?

https://twitter.com/ElectCalculus/status/1091274666344370179

Labour likely to be higher at expense of SNP.

PB's Old Faithful spouts his stuff, as predictable as UK weather-related gridlock.

Dura_Ace said:

Cyclefree said:

So completely off the wall - but what about this chap? https://twitter.com/davidaxelrod/status/1088049704955465728

The fucker even looks like Ken Wind.

Who is Ken Wind?

justin124 said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

justin124 said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

justin124 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

A rainbow alliance?

https://twitter.com/ElectCalculus/status/1091274666344370179

Labour likely to be higher at expense of SNP.

Predictable comment Justin but wrong

We shall see. Difficult to see Labour underperforming 2017 there even before considering the impact of Salmond /Sturgeon shenanigans.

At present labour are underwater in Scotland with no sign of any chance of recovery anytime soon

The last poll I saw had Labour & Tories both on 26% - ie little changed from 2017 though Tories down 3 %. TSE referred me to a crossbreak putting Labour ahead with SNP in 3rd place - not that I take that too seriously. No Scotland wide polls since internal SNP ructions kicked off.

Labour are underwater in Scotland as those on here he know Scotland will affirm

justin124 said:

Theuniondivvie said:

justin124 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

A rainbow alliance?

https://twitter.com/ElectCalculus/status/1091274666344370179

Labour likely to be higher at expense of SNP.

PB's Old Faithful spouts his stuff, as predictable as UK weather-related gridlock.

Perhaps you were one of the many on here back in May 2017 who were so dismissive of the suggestion that the SNP would fall below 50 seats. Even a few days before Polling Day nationalist supporters were still in denial.

Name and shame. There were many PBers who were expecting the SNP to fall below 50 seats and backed the 20/1 on the Scottish Tories to have more than 10 Scottish MPs.

Iirc in May 2017 you were saying the best thing for Labour was for Corbyn to have a heart attack.

DecrepitJohnL said:

kinabalu said:

Wants to be a teacher! Virtue well & truly signalled. Clever.

Without checking, I expect he means at university level.

Or maybe he's seen "A Man For All Seasons" and, unlike Rich, has taken the hint.

“Sir Thomas More: Why not be a teacher? You'd be a fine teacher; perhaps a great one.
Richard Rich: If I was, who would know it?
Sir Thomas More: You; your pupils; your friends; God. Not a bad public, that.”

Cyclefree said:

Scott_P said:

Cyclefree said:

Yes it is. And the last two sentences nail it -

"Our challenge is not to mock, but to tell a better story. One that includes them, has a future for all of us and, ultimately, turns “them” and “us” into “we”."

Our politicians have failed to tell a story for all of us, or even try to do so.

But that's the tragedy of Brexit in reverse.

It turned "we" into "them' and "us"

Putting that genie back in the bottle is not easy

Possibly it showed that there was no "we", that we were labouring under a comfortable delusion that there was and that we were wrong to think that it was only malicious people like Farage and co who turned that "we" into "them" and "us".

Clearly, there was - and is - a lot of unhappiness about and the referendum helped crystallise that. It is, IMO, the wrong answer to a question that needed asking - not whether to remain in the EU or not - but how to create an economic, social and political settlement that works for the majority not a fortunate minority. That question might be asked by the young, for instance, as well as Leave voters in places a long way away from London.

The tragedy of Brexit it seems to me is that it diverts attention away from all the issues which do need addressing into a somewhat sterile argument about trade with the EU, which - even if reasonably amicably resolved - will do little to deal with these other issues

The underlying issues must be addressed but the last few days have not seen the EU at their finest and their attitude to discussing the backstop at all, will result in many more wanting to leave and, sadly, without a deal.

Italy is in recession and Germany not far behind and if we crash out, and all those German cars for our market, left rusting in Munich, flower growers in Holland with no market, Irish freight stranded at Dublin, Spanish, Portugese, Italian and French food and drink stopped in 30 mile queus at the Channel ports the, people of the EU will say we are happy to be sacrificed on a political obsession, and Merkel, Macron, Junckers, Tusk and Barnier are our heroes

Pulpstar said:

OldKingCole said:

SandyRentool said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

SandyRentool said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

edmundintokyo said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

The bitterness continues with the EU calling Gibraltar a British colony resulting in an angry rebuttal from the UK

What do the British say it is???

We say it is a BOT.

British Overseas Territory.

Prior to 1983 we called it a British Crown Colony.

"British-occupied Spain"

Not only that, we obtained it via war, and Gibraltar only became British thanks to mass immigration.


If we had any sense of honour and shame we'd repudiate the treaty of Utrecht and give Gibraltar back to Spain.

What next? Give the Isle of Man back to Norway? Falklands to Argentina?

Kashmir to Pakistan???

Shetlands to Norway, surely.

Strasbourg, Gdansk and Kaliningrad back to Germany.

I think you mean Danzig and Königsburg :-)

Cyclefree said:

Dura_Ace said:

Cyclefree said:

So completely off the wall - but what about this chap? https://twitter.com/davidaxelrod/status/1088049704955465728

The fucker even looks like Ken Wind.

Who is Ken Wind?

https://marvel.fandom.com/wiki/Ken_Wind_(Earth-616)

"He lit his candle in the rain at Woodstock, spilled his very own blood at Altamont, burned his draft card at Berkeley, marched on Washington, carried U.S. banner of peace through the bullets at Kent State, he cried for John, for Martin, for Bobby, he is the sould of the love generation, the spirit of the '68. Democrat. Liberal."

Dura_Ace said:

OldKingCole said:

Just popped up on my Facebook page:
'Dubbed the world's largest free trade agreement, the EU-Japan Economic Partnership Agreement has entered into force today!
The deal removes duties on almost all agricultural and industrial products and opens up the service sector and procurement. For the first time, the text also includes the countries' Paris climate deal commitments.'

Great job, Liam......... er...........

It's ok the UK can take full advantage of it for 57 days. Isn't Brexit brilliant?

On Danish radio this morning they were saying it was good, as they could send all the pork exports to the Japanese instead of the English (they always use England and English for Britain) - proving that fantasy Brexit outcomes aren't the preserve of the British

eristdoof said:

Pulpstar said:

OldKingCole said:

SandyRentool said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

SandyRentool said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

edmundintokyo said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

The bitterness continues with the EU calling Gibraltar a British colony resulting in an angry rebuttal from the UK

What do the British say it is???

We say it is a BOT.

British Overseas Territory.

Prior to 1983 we called it a British Crown Colony.

"British-occupied Spain"

Not only that, we obtained it via war, and Gibraltar only became British thanks to mass immigration.


If we had any sense of honour and shame we'd repudiate the treaty of Utrecht and give Gibraltar back to Spain.

What next? Give the Isle of Man back to Norway? Falklands to Argentina?

Kashmir to Pakistan???

Shetlands to Norway, surely.

Strasbourg, Gdansk and Kaliningrad back to Germany.

I think you mean Danzig and Königsburg :-)

The population transfers (forced or not) after WWII were enormous. I doubt that there are few people in either area whose forebears lived there.

Pulpstar said:

OldKingCole said:

Pulpstar said:

OldKingCole said:

SandyRentool said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

SandyRentool said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

edmundintokyo said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

The bitterness continues with the EU calling Gibraltar a British colony resulting in an angry rebuttal from the UK

What do the British say it is???

We say it is a BOT.

British Overseas Territory.

Prior to 1983 we called it a British Crown Colony.

"British-occupied Spain"

Not only that, we obtained it via war, and Gibraltar only became British thanks to mass immigration.


If we had any sense of honour and shame we'd repudiate the treaty of Utrecht and give Gibraltar back to Spain.

What next? Give the Isle of Man back to Norway? Falklands to Argentina?

Kashmir to Pakistan???

Shetlands to Norway, surely.

Strasbourg, Gdansk and Kaliningrad back to Germany.

OK, this'll stir things up:
Berwick-upon-Tweed back to Scotland.

Llanveynoe to Wales ?

USA to revert to British Overseas Territory.

Charles said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

The bitterness continues with the EU calling Gibraltar a British colony resulting in an angry rebuttal from the UK

This is getting very nasty and indictitive that the EU are realising that if a no deal happens it will be a complete failure by all parties, while ordinary workers across the UK and the EU are sacrificed on the altar of political obsession

A lot of this is media rubbish

They wrote “colony of the British crown” rather than “crown colony”

Crown Colony is the old name for British Overseas Territory (admittedly changed in 1981).

It’s about as controversial as arguing Monmouthshire should be part of England

They were either careless or deliberately wrong. Like any deep-rooted political issue, the peacemaker has to get it right.

Sunil_Prasannan said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

SandyRentool said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

edmundintokyo said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

The bitterness continues with the EU calling Gibraltar a British colony resulting in an angry rebuttal from the UK

What do the British say it is???

We say it is a BOT.

British Overseas Territory.

Prior to 1983 we called it a British Crown Colony.

"British-occupied Spain"

Not only that, we obtained it via war, and Gibraltar only became British thanks to mass immigration.


If we had any sense of honour and shame we'd repudiate the treaty of Utrecht and give Gibraltar back to Spain.

What next? Give the Isle of Man back to Norway? Falklands to Argentina?

You can’t give the Falklands BACK to Argentina as they never owned them

F1: Sauber are no more.

https://twitter.com/robwattsf1/status/1091269652603420673

And with that, I must be off.

TheJezziah said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

justin124 said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

justin124 said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

justin124 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

A rainbow alliance?

https://twitter.com/ElectCalculus/status/1091274666344370179

Labour likely to be higher at expense of SNP.

Predictable comment Justin but wrong

We shall see. Difficult to see Labour underperforming 2017 there even before considering the impact of Salmond /Sturgeon shenanigans.

At present labour are underwater in Scotland with no sign of any chance of recovery anytime soon

The last poll I saw had Labour & Tories both on 26% - ie little changed from 2017 though Tories down 3 %. TSE referred me to a crossbreak putting Labour ahead with SNP in 3rd place - not that I take that too seriously. No Scotland wide polls since internal SNP ructions kicked off.

Labour are underwater in Scotland as those on here he know Scotland will affirm

As someone who lives in Wales and has lived here almost all my life I could not have told you exactly how the election would have gone in 2017 in Wales or how the next one will.

Unless you or the people you know have magical powers it will be much the same for you and the people you know. So despite your Scottish connections you cannot tell people exactly how the Scottish part of a general election will go. Especially seen as we don't even know when that would be.

If you could I assume you would have proved incredibly useful for elections here in the past, despite the fact you don't bet others would bet on what you know is going to happen (after you had proved your foresight at previous elections)

Justin's arguments might be wrong but knowing people from somewhere does not equal knowing exactly how an election will go in that area.

Edit: To clarify I'm not claiming any particular side will do better/worse in Scotland, just the argument about knowing people from an area equalling perfect foresight into electoral future seems flawed.

My knowledge and connection with Scotland goes back 68 years, having lived there, been married there, have family across Scotland, have voted there, and regular go back to the north of Scotland.

The SNP have replaced labour as the party of the left but also are pro business and continue to occupy the space that labour would have previously dominated. There is no evidence labour are making inroads into the SNP

Big_G_NorthWales said:

My knowledge and connection with Scotland goes back 68 years, having lived there, been married there, have family across Scotland, have voted there, and regular go back to the north of Scotland.

The SNP have replaced labour as the party of the left but also are pro business and continue to occupy the space that labour would have previously dominated. There is no evidence labour are making inroads into the SNP

Do you think that somebody who aimed to predict elections could do a good job by getting a single person from each region with similar credentials and asking them what they think will happen?

Personally I'd be extremely skeptical.

Big_G_NorthWales said:

OldKingCole said:

Pulpstar said:

OldKingCole said:

SandyRentool said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

SandyRentool said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

edmundintokyo said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

The bitterness continues with the EU calling Gibraltar a British colony resulting in an angry rebuttal from the UK

What do the British say it is???

We say it is a BOT.

British Overseas Territory.

Prior to 1983 we called it a British Crown Colony.

"British-occupied Spain"

Not only that, we obtained it via war, and Gibraltar only became British thanks to mass immigration.


If we had any sense of honour and shame we'd repudiate the treaty of Utrecht and give Gibraltar back to Spain.

What next? Give the Isle of Man back to Norway? Falklands to Argentina?

Kashmir to Pakistan???

Shetlands to Norway, surely.

Strasbourg, Gdansk and Kaliningrad back to Germany.

OK, this'll stir things up:
Berwick-upon-Tweed back to Scotland.

As a past resident of Berwick upon Tweed, the lower tax rates than Scotland would ensure that Berwick does not change hands for the fourteenth time

There is an old story about an elderly farmer who lived on the border between Russia and Poland. During his lifetime the border was moved several times so that sometimes he was Russian, sometimes Polish.
Eventually he was told that the border was fixed for all time, and he was a Pole.
He was very grateful as 'he couldn't stand another Russian winter'!

Stereotomy said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

My knowledge and connection with Scotland goes back 68 years, having lived there, been married there, have family across Scotland, have voted there, and regular go back to the north of Scotland.

The SNP have replaced labour as the party of the left but also are pro business and continue to occupy the space that labour would have previously dominated. There is no evidence labour are making inroads into the SNP

Do you think that somebody who aimed to predict elections could do a good job by getting a single person from each region with similar credentials and asking them what they think will happen?

Personally I'd be extremely skeptical.

Put enough of the right kind of anecdotes together in the right way, and you get a representative sample...

OblitusSumMe said:

Cyclefree said:

OblitusSumMe said:

Cyclefree said:

OblitusSumMe said:

Gary Younge articulating many of my thoughts on what is so wrong-headed about most Remainer rhetoric.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/feb/01/poorer-brexiters-worse-off-working-class-leavers

Yes it is. And the last two sentences nail it -

"Our challenge is not to mock, but to tell a better story. One that includes them, has a future for all of us and, ultimately, turns “them” and “us” into “we”."

Our politicians have failed to tell a story for all of us, or even try to do so.

It probably says something about my age, but I blame Blair for killing off the notion that politicians should try to tell a story to persuade people to change their minds, rather than to work out what platitudes the public want you to tell them.

I think that if you are going to have a chance of persuading people to change their minds or at least to concede that you have a point, you need to make a real effort to understand them and why they think the way they do. You need to listen, really listen. That requires a deal of empathy and emotional intelligence which, when spin and PR and soundbites on Twitter and getting easy applause are seen as the high points of the politicians' art, is not going to be easy to develop or much valued if you have it.

This is one of Corbyn's weaknesses. He shows no interest in people who disagree with him. As you say, you can't hope to persuade anyone if you can't understand them.

Sadly, Mrs May gives a similar impression. That's the tragedy of contemporary British politics.

OldKingCole said:

OblitusSumMe said:

Cyclefree said:

OblitusSumMe said:

Cyclefree said:

OblitusSumMe said:

Gary Younge articulating many of my thoughts on what is so wrong-headed about most Remainer rhetoric.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/feb/01/poorer-brexiters-worse-off-working-class-leavers

Yes it is. And the last two sentences nail it -

"Our challenge is not to mock, but to tell a better story. One that includes them, has a future for all of us and, ultimately, turns “them” and “us” into “we”."

Our politicians have failed to tell a story for all of us, or even try to do so.

It probably says something about my age, but I blame Blair for killing off the notion that politicians should try to tell a story to persuade people to change their minds, rather than to work out what platitudes the public want you to tell them.

I think that if you are going to have a chance of persuading people to change their minds or at least to concede that you have a point, you need to make a real effort to understand them and why they think the way they do. You need to listen, really listen. That requires a deal of empathy and emotional intelligence which, when spin and PR and soundbites on Twitter and getting easy applause are seen as the high points of the politicians' art, is not going to be easy to develop or much valued if you have it.

This is one of Corbyn's weaknesses. He shows no interest in people who disagree with him. As you say, you can't hope to persuade anyone if you can't understand them.

Sadly, Mrs May gives a similar impression. That's the tragedy of contemporary British politics.

Mrs May has a bullet-proof method of persuasion: get people into a room just before a vote and lie to them about concessions she'll make. That it keeps working is a good indicator of just how stupid Tory MPs are.

YBarddCwsc said:

OldKingCole said:

Pulpstar said:

OldKingCole said:

Pulpstar said:

OldKingCole said:

SandyRentool said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

SandyRentool said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

edmundintokyo said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

The bitterness continues with the EU calling Gibraltar a British colony resulting in an angry rebuttal from the UK

What do the British say it is???

We say it is a BOT.

British Overseas Territory.

Prior to 1983 we called it a British Crown Colony.

"British-occupied Spain"

Not only that, we obtained it via war, and Gibraltar only became British thanks to mass immigration.


If we had any sense of honour and shame we'd repudiate the treaty of Utrecht and give Gibraltar back to Spain.

What next? Give the Isle of Man back to Norway? Falklands to Argentina?

Kashmir to Pakistan???

Shetlands to Norway, surely.

Strasbourg, Gdansk and Kaliningrad back to Germany.

OK, this'll stir things up:
Berwick-upon-Tweed back to Scotland.

Llanveynoe to Wales ?

There are several places in Herefordshire which ought to be returned to Wales, are there not? Including the place where Owain Glyndwr died/is buried.

Half a moment, half a moment. We're not settling just for parts of Herefordshire.

The whole island of Britain should be returned to the Welsh (excepting Pictish and Goidelic parts of North Scotland). There were no Anglo-Saxons here originally. King Arthur and Boudicca were Welsh.

Even at the time of the Tripartite Indenture, Glyndwr was to get the whole of the West Midlands.

Parts of Herefordshire ... no way.

I think once we do that, we have to return the whole of Britain to the Irish. Which, right now, is looking like it might solve a few other problems.

edmundintokyo said:

kingbongo said:

Dura_Ace said:

OldKingCole said:

Just popped up on my Facebook page:
'Dubbed the world's largest free trade agreement, the EU-Japan Economic Partnership Agreement has entered into force today!
The deal removes duties on almost all agricultural and industrial products and opens up the service sector and procurement. For the first time, the text also includes the countries' Paris climate deal commitments.'

Great job, Liam......... er...........

It's ok the UK can take full advantage of it for 57 days. Isn't Brexit brilliant?

On Danish radio this morning they were saying it was good, as they could send all the pork exports to the Japanese instead of the English (they always use England and English for Britain) - proving that fantasy Brexit outcomes aren't the preserve of the British

Bring it on, quality of pork products is Japan's third-worst problem. (After the criminal justice system and refugee policy)

German salami is superior to Danish.

Are there any British salami producers?

O'Rourke might be better off waiting until 2024.

Otherwise he could hope for the VP slot in 2020, that did not work out too badly for another former teacher and Texas politician Lyndon Baines Johnson when he got the VP slot in 1960. Plus as O'Rourke' s father in law is a billionaire he does not need the money

OldKingCole said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

OldKingCole said:

Pulpstar said:

OldKingCole said:

SandyRentool said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

SandyRentool said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

edmundintokyo said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

The bitterness continues with the EU calling Gibraltar a British colony resulting in an angry rebuttal from the UK

What do the British say it is???

We say it is a BOT.

British Overseas Territory.

Prior to 1983 we called it a British Crown Colony.

"British-occupied Spain"

Not only that, we obtained it via war, and Gibraltar only became British thanks to mass immigration.


If we had any sense of honour and shame we'd repudiate the treaty of Utrecht and give Gibraltar back to Spain.

What next? Give the Isle of Man back to Norway? Falklands to Argentina?

Kashmir to Pakistan???

Shetlands to Norway, surely.

Strasbourg, Gdansk and Kaliningrad back to Germany.

OK, this'll stir things up:
Berwick-upon-Tweed back to Scotland.

As a past resident of Berwick upon Tweed, the lower tax rates than Scotland would ensure that Berwick does not change hands for the fourteenth time

There is an old story about an elderly farmer who lived on the border between Russia and Poland. During his lifetime the border was moved several times so that sometimes he was Russian, sometimes Polish.
Eventually he was told that the border was fixed for all time, and he was a Pole.
He was very grateful as 'he couldn't stand another Russian winter'!

+1

TheScreamingEagles said:

A rainbow alliance?

https://twitter.com/ElectCalculus/status/1091274666344370179

Labour plus SNP likely with LD support on most issues but on those numbers almost certainly the Tories will have a majority in England

justin124 said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Stereotomy said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

My knowledge and connection with Scotland goes back 68 years, having lived there, been married there, have family across Scotland, have voted there, and regular go back to the north of Scotland.

The SNP have replaced labour as the party of the left but also are pro business and continue to occupy the space that labour would have previously dominated. There is no evidence labour are making inroads into the SNP

Do you think that somebody who aimed to predict elections could do a good job by getting a single person from each region with similar credentials and asking them what they think will happen?

Personally I'd be extremely skeptical.

No. I lived in Scotland when labour was as dominant as they are in Wales but the SNP being a party of the left, and of course very pro Independence, managed to be very pro business especially under Salmond and appealed across the divide. That appeal still exists but of course it's Independence obsession opens the way for a pro union - pro business conservative party under a very capable leader to provide a genuine alternative.

Of course it could change but it is not happening at present and in any GE soon I would expect both conservative and labour to lose seats to the SNP

There are 7 SNP seats more vulnerable to Labour than is Aberconway in North Wales.

They would be safe for SNP for any election today.

Bebb in Aberconwy (no a) is in great difficulty and may be de-selected but it is possible it will go labour

Big_G_NorthWales said:

The bitterness continues with the EU calling Gibraltar a British colony resulting in an angry rebuttal from the UK

This is getting very nasty and indictitive that the EU are realising that if a no deal happens it will be a complete failure by all parties, while ordinary workers across the UK and the EU are sacrificed on the altar of political obsession

I'm a little bit saddened to hear you say that. Gibraltar is a colony, although we don't use the word anymore. It has a popularly-elected parliament, a governor appointed by the British crown, a head of government appointed by the Crown that can command a majority in that house, its monarch is the British monarch and its defences are underwritten by the British Armed Forces. That's a very British structure and one that works quite well. But it's a colonial structure until it gets its own monarch (and if memory serves the power to rewrite its own constitution), and its final court of appeal is still the privy council in London

I received my copy of Wetherspoons News through the door today. Did they reach an agreement with the Telegraph, FT, etc, for carrying copyrighted material, or is that still a matter in dispute?

Nigelb said:

HYUFD said:

O'Rourke might be better off waiting until 2024.

Otherwise he could hope for the VP slot in 2020, that did not work out too badly for another former teacher and Texas politician Lyndon Baines Johnson when he got the VP slot in 1960. Plus as O'Rourke' s father in law is a billionaire he does not need the money

O'Rourke would be far more use to any Democrat ticket by running again for the Senate than he would as an unlikely pick for the VP slot.

I'm not sure how much use that is to Beto when he loses again, though.

Sean_F said:

OblitusSumMe said:

edmundintokyo said:

kingbongo said:

Dura_Ace said:

OldKingCole said:

Just popped up on my Facebook page:
'Dubbed the world's largest free trade agreement, the EU-Japan Economic Partnership Agreement has entered into force today!
The deal removes duties on almost all agricultural and industrial products and opens up the service sector and procurement. For the first time, the text also includes the countries' Paris climate deal commitments.'

Great job, Liam......... er...........

It's ok the UK can take full advantage of it for 57 days. Isn't Brexit brilliant?

On Danish radio this morning they were saying it was good, as they could send all the pork exports to the Japanese instead of the English (they always use England and English for Britain) - proving that fantasy Brexit outcomes aren't the preserve of the British

Bring it on, quality of pork products is Japan's third-worst problem. (After the criminal justice system and refugee policy)

German salami is superior to Danish.

Are there any British salami producers?

Donkeys make good salami. The Donkey Sanctuary should get into the business.

Recipes here:

https://www.fondazioneslowfood.com/en/ark-of-taste-slow-food/donkey-salami/

Tissue_Price said:

Nigelb said:

HYUFD said:

O'Rourke might be better off waiting until 2024.

Otherwise he could hope for the VP slot in 2020, that did not work out too badly for another former teacher and Texas politician Lyndon Baines Johnson when he got the VP slot in 1960. Plus as O'Rourke' s father in law is a billionaire he does not need the money

O'Rourke would be far more use to any Democrat ticket by running again for the Senate than he would as an unlikely pick for the VP slot.

I'm not sure how much use that is to Beto when he loses again, though.

I think he could win.

Big_G_NorthWales said:

I am feeling optimistic this morning and I predict we will sign TM deal, modified or not, and will leave on the 29th March 2019

Yes! I like this optimism! And it's not even slightly related to my bet on "leave on time", oh deary me no...

rottenborough said:

https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1091255969877774336

I cannot see a referendum now. It needed Corbyn and he has turned his back on it

Nigelb said:

HYUFD said:

O'Rourke might be better off waiting until 2024.

Otherwise he could hope for the VP slot in 2020, that did not work out too badly for another former teacher and Texas politician Lyndon Baines Johnson when he got the VP slot in 1960. Plus as O'Rourke' s father in law is a billionaire he does not need the money

O'Rourke would be far more use to any Democrat ticket by running again for the Senate than he would as an unlikely pick for the VP slot.

Yes, win a Senate seat, show he can win in a general election then run for President

Roger Stone - a stirring finger in every mud pie:

https://www.thedailybeast.com/bezos-investigators-question-the-brother-of-his-mistress-lauren-sanchez-in-national-enquirer-leak-probe
Jeff Bezos’ top personal security consultant has questioned his mistress’ brother as part of the probe into how the couple’s text messages wound up in the hands of the National Enquirer.

Gavin de Becker, the Amazon chief’s longtime personal security consultant and the point person for the investigation, confirmed to The Daily Beast on Wednesday that his probe has scrutinized Michael Sanchez, the brother of Bezos mistress Lauren Sanchez and a personal and business associate of Trumpworld figures including Roger Stone, Carter Page, and Scottie Nell Hughes…

viewcode said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

I am feeling optimistic this morning and I predict we will sign TM deal, modified or not, and will leave on the 29th March 2019

Yes! I like this optimism! And it's not even slightly related to my bet on "leave on time", oh deary me no...

It is the only logical conclusion but logic does not seem to be a quality most mps possess

rottenborough said:

Tissue_Price said:

rottenborough said:

On Beto:

https://edition.cnn.com/2019/01/29/opinions/beto-orourke-is-driving-the-political-class-nuts-axelrod/index.html

Yep. I stand to be proved wrong in fairly short order, but this all looks like a somewhat calculated attempt to do things differently, because there is such appetite for that, especially on the left. @Richard_Nabavi notes he is inexperienced - well, yes and no. He's an experienced campaigner, who has previously beaten an incumbent in a House primary, and just given Ted Cruz a pretty good fright. His fundraising and campaigning skills are what he needs to win.

And, given the American public elected Trump, his 6 years of House experience looks like a decent enough political CV, even though it would be traditional to have state or national-level responsibility first.

Most of all, I don't understand his tilt at Cruz if not with a view to running for President if he lost, which he must have anticipated.

Perhaps we shall see soon enough.

Perhaps he genuinely hasn't made his mind up. Probably only gets one shot at it.

A Democratic Senator from Texas would probably get another shot.

Big_G_NorthWales said:

The underlying issues must be addressed but the last few days have not seen the EU at their finest and their attitude to discussing the backstop at all, will result in many more wanting to leave and, sadly, without a deal.

Italy is in recession and Germany not far behind and if we crash out, and all those German cars for our market, left rusting in Munich, flower growers in Holland with no market, Irish freight stranded at Dublin, Spanish, Portugese, Italian and French food and drink stopped in 30 mile queus at the Channel ports the, people of the EU will say we are happy to be sacrificed on a political obsession, and Merkel, Macron, Junckers, Tusk and Barnier are our heroes

Once again, we see the tired old line it's all Europe's fault (having blamed those who voted REMAIN, the ERG, Jeremy Corbyn and anyone else within range).

I would love to hear for once a mea culpa from the May supporters admitting that perhaps in just a tiny regard, the Prime Minister might just bear a scintilla of responsibility for the current situation.

What we get regrettably are vacuous personal slurs against individuals in the EU - Juncker (Druncker you mean), Sabine Weygand (a "fat bossy German" as someone on here said the other day), Barnier (untrustworthy) etc and at the slightest hint of an attack on the UK, up go the hands in horror - it's another outrage comparable to the "humiliation" of Theresa May at Salzburg and now the perfidious Europeans are trying to take Gibraltar (95%+ REMAIN voting but who cares) from us.

This isn't a staring match to see who blinks first though it seems like it. The EU move today to waive any notion of visas and charging for visas for UK citizens if we leave without a Deal is a generous gesture to be welcomed.

Now, before everyone gets all irate I'm not being sufficiently patriotic, the EU aren't blameless in this and it's quite clear there is an underlying agenda to make us "pay" (poor choice of words) for leaving pour ne pas encourager les autres as it were and it may be the real crisis is over Italy and the Italian banks and that potentially could be much worse for the EU.

For now, as has so often happened in history, we are sleepwalking toward a situation because none of the alternatives work for at least one or more of the key players.

Revocation would destroy the Conservative Party (which I'd consider no great loss but that might be a minority view). May has even turned on her own WDA by passing the "magic unicorn" version which she must know the EU won't accept so it was a cynical political gimmick to try to hold together her Cabinet and Party.

So it's either an extension to A50 or all hell breaks loose on March 30th when the population discover the last Big Mac is being served in a McDonalds in Leeds and Waitrose runs out of avocadoes.

Tissue_Price said:

Most of all, I don't understand his tilt at Cruz if not with a view to running for President if he lost, which he must have anticipated.

Maybe he's just not that careerist and ran against Cruz because he thought he might win. I mean it was a long shot but it wasn't a crazy impossible long shot. One if the things that helped the Dems this time was that Trump felt like a serious enough problem get good people working hard on races without much certainty of success.

HYUFD said:

rottenborough said:

Tissue_Price said:

rottenborough said:

On Beto:

https://edition.cnn.com/2019/01/29/opinions/beto-orourke-is-driving-the-political-class-nuts-axelrod/index.html

Yep. I stand to be proved wrong in fairly short order, but this all looks like a somewhat calculated attempt to do things differently, because there is such appetite for that, especially on the left. @Richard_Nabavi notes he is inexperienced - well, yes and no. He's an experienced campaigner, who has previously beaten an incumbent in a House primary, and just given Ted Cruz a pretty good fright. His fundraising and campaigning skills are what he needs to win.

And, given the American public elected Trump, his 6 years of House experience looks like a decent enough political CV, even though it would be traditional to have state or national-level responsibility first.

Most of all, I don't understand his tilt at Cruz if not with a view to running for President if he lost, which he must have anticipated.

Perhaps we shall see soon enough.

Perhaps he genuinely hasn't made his mind up. Probably only gets one shot at it.

Plus if he got the nomination and Trump beat him (and history still fsbpurs an incumbent president after only 1 term of his party in the White House winning re election) then O'Rourke is done and someone like Bobby Kennedy's grandson Congressman Joseph P Kennedy III would be favourite in 2024

History may favour Trump, but Betfair - and political wisdom based on Mueller etc. - doesn't. This is why the Democratic field is so high-profile and crowded; miss out now and you probably don't get a shot until 2028.

This would be fun:

https://twitter.com/JGForsyth/status/1091315685844766721