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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Trump facing right-wing backlash for caving in on the shut down
Suddenly Trump finds himself under attack from those his loudest backers. Coulter blasts Trump over shutdown deal: 'Biggest wimp ever to serve as president' | TheHill https://t.co/TPOXnHh9tA
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Trump is the nominee unless he is impeached or chooses not to run, that's my firm belief.
V. good, if you enjoy that sort of thing.
All sweetness and light at the White House meeting, until he took the bait. Hoist by his own misogyny.
In the usual manner:
https://www.politico.com/story/2019/01/26/trump-shutdown-border-security-wall-caravan-democrats-1128598
Dangerous words in the long term but for Trump only the next go round matters.
https://www.politico.com/story/2019/01/25/orourke-2020-decision-months-away-1126571
That's recently deceased, Distinguished Flying Medal winning, former President George H.W. Bush. Stay classy, Ann.
However Bill Clinton came back by shifting to the centre and making compromises with Congress if necessary e.g. on welfare reform and pitching himself against them when required too.
By ending the Government shutdown and not dying in a ditch over wall funding Trump could also be shifting to the centre post midterms with an eye on re election, gambling his base is already locked up
Beating an incumbent president after only one term of their party in the White House is still a huge ask, especially for someone who lost their last race, which is why it has happened only once since WW2 in 1980. If O'Rourke ran and lost in 2020 he is likely done.
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2019/01/26/us/politics/trump-contacts-russians-wikileaks.html
https://twitter.com/benjaminwittes/status/1089177727561805826
He's already been hammered by moderates who think he shouldn't have picked the fight; now he's getting it from conservatives who think he's weak for backing down.
And remember, he didn't need to have this fight and give Pelosi an early win - there was a deal on the table in December, when Congress was fully in GOP control.
Secondly, remember that this crisis arose from Trump's unwillingness to compromise in December... when the GOP controlled both houses.
He hasn't changed his fundamental approach, and won't. All he's done is belatedly take the only route out of a dire situation which was entirely of his own making.
Non-college educated white men can easily find something better to do on a Tuesday in November than going down to vote for someone who just got his ass handed back to him by an elderly Democrat woman. They are highly unlikely to vote for anyone else, but motivation matters.
Wiki leaks clearly an intermediary in a heinous crime. Is it time for wiki leaks defenders to see not freedom fighters but anarchists and traitor to liberal and libertarian cause?
On foreign policy the likes of Romney in the Senate may limit his manoeuvre to sign treaties and foreign policy rarely wins elections, domestic policy does and the House is key to that
I'm not saying the kind of massive blue-collar turnout that Trump needed to win in 2016 is a given, I'm just saying I think it's the third biggest risk to his re-election hopes (after, in order but only just, Independents/Suburbs going blue and high turnout from the Dem base).
https://twitter.com/Andrew_Adonis/status/1089141006191210496
They should take a look at the mess that is the UK before going down that road...
Plus unless Democrats find a candidate who can appeal to bluecollar workers in the rustbelt Trump still has a good chance of winning the Electoral College again
As for foreign policy, I agree it might not win him an election. I'm saying he has an alternative to compromising on domestic policy - not that it's the smart move.
Clinton said "okay, you've elected a GOP Congress to do some things including welfare reform... so I'll agree a package with them that delivers that, which I can sign, and that tames their wilder instincts". He vetoed two bills, before negotiating a somewhat more moderate (albeit still conservative) alternative. He therefore came across as respecting the midterms, and being moderating and reasonable.
Would he have passed the welfare reforms had he not needed to deal with a GOP Congress? No. But would it have gone further if Gingrich had had a colleague in the White House? Yes - and the vetoed bills did go further.
In this case, Trump has come across as unreasonable, essentially saying, "I'll shut the government down for years if necessary unless I get my wall money". And he's come across as weak because his bluff was called and he got nothing.
:-)
There are people who claim to have seen the Loch Ness Monster.
Which is a bit different to politicians deciding when to hold them and on what topics (generally restricting them to constitutional matters on the rare occasions they are held) and then making them advisory in case they don't want to implement the decision of the voters. That isn't direct democracy!
For many, it wasn't the Wall as such but the idea of a bloke doing something they can understand - success you can see.
That's why "I'd still like to build a wall but, y'know, it's been tricky because Nancy has been nasty to me" just doesn't motivate in the same way.
I don't think he's dead, incidentally. The economy is going reasonably well (stuttering a bit but historically decent), and there's no guarantee by any means that the Democrats will come out of the primaries with a candidate who is strong and relatively undamaged by months of fighting with colleagues.
Remember the only President to have lost re election after only 1 term of his party in the White House, Carter in 1980, did so after his party won the 1978 midterms despite losses. Reagan, Bill Clinton and Obama all saw the opposition win Congress in their first midterms and all were re elected
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jan/26/john-humphrys-suggests-ireland-could-quit-eu-and-join-uk
Norway Plus, however, is a girl. That's why our Head Girl - her maj - is getting behind it.
EU citizens who want to continue living in the UK after 30 June 2021 were facing a £65 fee.
But the PM said on Monday she would waive the fee and give refunds to those who had already applied. Home Office Minister Caroline Nokes said more than 30,000 people had signed up in a pilot programme for the scheme.
The problem is, Humphreys is undoubtedly popular with a majority - let’s say 52% - of the audience. The rest are voting with their feet.
All the others, Harris, Warren, Gilibrand, Booker etc are yet more California, New York or Massachusetts elitist coastal liberals like Hillary or Kerry and are not going to be able to win back enough blue collar voters in the key states like Pennsylvania and Michigan and Iowa and Ohio from Trump
I won't mention which one it is so long as he sends me a bottle of 2012 Bond St. Eden Napa Valley in the next week
However stopped listening because of John Humphrys.
When he asked Ed Milliband if he was to ugly to be PM.
I thought it was time to give it a miss.
India is at least a democracy, once they start to be global contenders may be more interest there
Germany, France et al. will be keen that no more satellites escape the orbit of Planet Euroland. Plus, almost all the remaining member states will be in our heading towards the single currency. They'll increase integration to try and entangle members all the more, who would struggle even more than we have (although probably with less shit leaders) to get loose.
It'll work. But the same entanglement will make it more difficult for British eurofederalists to persuade the rest of us to rejoin (unless it's in a very few years).
The UK Parliament is the building in Westminster with a big clock. Apart from private member's bills it does not propose laws, and indeed Christopher Chope excused his blocking of the upskirting law by stating that only the Government can propose law.
The UK Government is the buildings in Whitehall and other cities that house the UK Cabinet and ancilliary staff. It proposes laws but does not approve them.
Now he's consolidated his position the atmosphere in China seems to be a bit less foreign-friendly. Military adventures seem far from impossible.
Trump won in 2016 because the shift of blue-collar whites delivered new states to the GOP before hispanics and white-collar whites delivered new states to the Democrats. But that needn't be the case in 2020, even if the first half still works for the GOP.
What I'm saying is, a Biden candidacy aims at denying the GOP the midwest states they need to win. But the Dems could also go for the Obama coalition again and try to 'take' existing GOP states to make up for the Midwest instead, and that could work too. The key is not to get stuck in the middle of the road, but that's the difficulty of coalition-building generally.
A scene from the HBO crime drama shows a character named Stringer Bell trying to broker peace between rival drug dealers, and trying to get them to abide by Robert’s Rules of Order. When the meeting adjourns, Bell walks up to a subordinate, who is busy scribbling on a legal pad.
“Motherfucker, what is that?” Bell asks.
“The Robert Rules say we gotta have minutes for a meeting. These the minutes,” he replies.
Astonished, Bell snatches the paper out of his hand. “Nigga, is you takin’ notes on a criminal fuckin’ conspiracy? What the fuck is you thinking, man?”
https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2019/01/trump-associates-keep-taking-notes-conspiracies/581299/
No expert on China, but I'd guess that Xi is likely in a very strong domestic position in the short term. But growth is done (always happens with a rapidly expanding economy) and that could lead to political pressure. And, in the past, a way of distracting from that can be to wave the flag and go invade somewhere.
China's notably been reticent to have military adventures. I think Tibet in the 1950s was the last such conquest (had to check, they were involved in the Korean War but didn't conquer the peninsula, obviously, and absorb it into China).
An alternative could be more land-grabbing.
China is unlikely to expand military adventures much beyond its borders but Taiwan is the likeliest flashpoint. Russia is still far more willing to challenge the West with military expeditions to the Middle East etc than China is
1. Saying Non PC (aka primitive and vulgar) things which echo their own baser sentiments.
2. Being a hard ass Businessman Who Gets Things Done. A wheeler dealer. A doer.
Where (1) means "He's just like one of us" and (2) adds on "But he's also a proven billionaire boss-man and so we look up to him and trust him to deliver on stuff".
It was Trump's killer achievement to successfully present this duality in 2016 and I don't think he wins again if he loses either aspect. I think he needs both, which is a challenge for him.
Of course (1) is quite easy to maintain or even burnish - just keep up the trash talk - but (2) not so much.
And if he loses that, what then does he become? A rich superannuated bigot with a dirty mouth. That gets you places, of course it does, but it will not get you a 2nd term in the White House.
At least this time we are putting some miles in their bowlers legs.
"I didn't want a second term anyway..."
It was being able to appeal to blue collar rustbelt voters in a way Romney could not that was pivotal to Trump's election, if the Democrats pick another liberal, coastal elitist Trump will win those voters again and the Electoral College
In the end for a modest admin fee of £65 - less than the cost of 4 hours of home care most local councils charge our frail elderly - you get right of residency in the UK for the rest of your life. Perhaps we could have said the sums raised will be used to fund social care for our elderly and disabled - several hundred thousand of whom have suffered cuts in support since 2010 as we apparently have no money to help them.
Should we allow Irish citizens here to claim back the 80 euro cost of their Irish passports (105 euro if you get a passport card too) as that is their means of evidencing their right to remain here under the common travel area? Given Windrush that might be needed.
What about the £10 admin fee we charge the frail elderly and disabled for a blue badge. Surely cruel and inhumane - why not abolish it. Its not their fault they cannot walk far?
Why don't we offer UK passports for free and abolish the £80 charge - surely its nasty to charge people an admin fee so they can travel abroad.
Or the £20 those of working age have to pay for an eye test - or £30 for a dental check up plus another £50 for a filling or £7 for a prescription. Surely unfair and cruel on the sick and poorly sighted - its not their fault their filling came out or they need glasses?
Indeed why not abolish all government charges for everything - cos they are so unfair.
In the end if you are so uncommitted to the UK that you weren't prepared to pay £65 (the price of a meal for two in a decent restaurant) to get lifetime residency here so we can cover the admin costs of checking your eligibility - are you really committed to the UK that much?
This “peaceful rise” stuff is a myth.