politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » NEW PB / Polling Matters podcast: Is a no-deal Brexit now the
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In the short run yes because the effects of no deal in the short run are grossly overstated. In the long run I think a disorderly relationship with the EU would be a drag on growth and investment in this country which is why I favour the deal. Whether this would be worse for the UK than the policies of the ECB and Germany are for the EZ is pretty hard to tell at the moment.TheScreamingEagles said:
Do you think those records will continue after sustained No Deal?DavidL said:
Record employment.Scott_P said:
Business is already leaving.MarqueeMark said:We'll find out when we leave.
Find out how much horse shit has been generated. And by whom.
That already tells us how much crap the Brexiteers were peddling.
Record level of economically active adults.
Record vacancies.0 -
I agree with you Not. That’s not agree not Not, but yes, Not.notme2 said:
I think there is merit in looking at a fall back wto as doable, but actually much worse terms than what a bilateral trade agreement gets you.IanB2 said:
Are you feeling Ok?Pro_Rata said:I'm wondering about advising those who favour a No Deal Brexit about how they could arrange their personal finances and household trading arrangements so they can enjoy a similar experience in their home. I want to be as realistic as possible without playing punitive and being silly.
It strikes me that the sort of cost and inconvenience impacts you might see from arranging your domestic economics along such lines, are not dissimilar in scale to what the nation will face: I don't want to shirk that there may be little pockets of advantage either:
A first pitch of some of my ideas:
- Giving up preferential deals with tie ins: Ask your mortgage provider to cease your special deal and put you onto standard variable instead..Pay the applicable exit and arrangement fees. Same with broadband, TV etc.
- For gas and electricity, ask for your meters removed and go on pre-pay. As with WTO this is perfectly fine as the government protects you with minimum standards.
- All deliveries to your door need to be fully checked before entry. If the Amazon driver won't hand around, ignore him and wait for him to leave the parcel with the neighbours or the delivery office. You may need to go to the supermarket instead if you get a shopping delivery. One full trolley a week is your quota but you may grow your own food in the garden.
- Rather than a long term credit relationship, use payday lenders out of choice. These offer ultimate flexibility of when to pay back and you are again protected by legislation.
- Avoid getting discounted products, using special offers, tokens or voucher codes. Don't have loyalty relationships that allow you to obtain these.
- Don't use third party member benefits of any memberships you possess (e.g. AA discounts). Avoid packaged bank accounts even if you use the benefits.
- If your employer provides any benefits, such as matching a pension above the legal minimum, you must reduce your pension contributions so you don't benefit.
Etc.
Thoughts.
Rather than “leave means leave - brexit means brexit” the leave option should have been explicit on ballot appear as a FTA+, just saying “leave” has opened up a box containing an encyclopaedia of different leaves and outcomes which is what has caused the gridlock, and left the only leave in law as the version between Bernard Jenkins ears (the BJ Brexit) and parliament closed down to ensure 17.4 million voters get the BJ they want.
Correct me where I’m wrong.0 -
People's vote campaigners live on Sky looking very down this morning as they withdraw their peoples vote amendment
Luciana Berger blaming Corbyn and his front bench for refusing to back it and demanding labour endorse the people vote
Looks as if the option of a referendum has just gone up in smoke0 -
Imagine being Wee Eck's cellmate tonight and having to listen to him bore on all night when all you want is a furtive wank. I'd shiv him with a toothbrush handle.0
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Oh what a shame...Big_G_NorthWales said:
Looks as if the option of a referendum has just gone up in smoke0 -
May's Shit Deal. No Deal. Revoke.Big_G_NorthWales said:People's vote campaigners live on Sky looking very down this morning as they withdraw their peoples vote amendment
Luciana Berger blaming Corbyn and his front bench for refusing to back it and demanding labour endorse the people vote
Looks as if the option of a referendum has just gone up in smoke
May's Shit Deal in the driving seat as best delivering Brexit.0 -
Mr. Eagles, not at this stage, at least.0
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Maybe not. Fee Fi Fo Fum I smell politics from those looking glum.Big_G_NorthWales said:People's vote campaigners live on Sky looking very down this morning as they withdraw their peoples vote amendment
Luciana Berger blaming Corbyn and his front bench for refusing to back it and demanding labour endorse the people vote
Looks as if the option of a referendum has just gone up in smoke0 -
Really - so you've identified every unknown consequence and the impact it will have...DavidL said:
In the short run yes because the effects of no deal in the short run are grossly overstated. In the long run I think a disorderly relationship with the EU would be a drag on growth and investment in this country which is why I favour the deal. Whether this would be worse for the UK than the policies of the ECB and Germany are for the EZ is pretty hard to tell at the moment.TheScreamingEagles said:
Do you think those records will continue after sustained No Deal?DavidL said:
Record employment.Scott_P said:
Business is already leaving.MarqueeMark said:We'll find out when we leave.
Find out how much horse shit has been generated. And by whom.
That already tells us how much crap the Brexiteers were peddling.
Record level of economically active adults.
Record vacancies.0 -
Just rejoice at that news.....TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
David, Do BBC Scotland ever get anything correct.DavidL said:
The BBC speculates that he might appear in court later today. That would mean that he was appearing from custody or possibly an undertaking to appear. Neither seem remotely likely to me on what we know to date. I think the BBC are probably wrong about this.malcolmg said:
Usual sensationalist unionist press, he may have been charged with an offence but I seriously doubt "Arrested". He will not be sitting in a cell.Scott_P said:
What shite reporting.
Edit, I see the BBC have dropped that suggestion now.0 -
But probably increased the chances of revocation of Article 50.GIN1138 said:
Oh what a shame...Big_G_NorthWales said:
Looks as if the option of a referendum has just gone up in smoke0 -
This is the key vote ... will Bercow allow it this time ?
https://twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1088378251104477189
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Thanks Jezza... We couldn't have done any of this without him!MarqueeMark said:
Just rejoice at that news.....TheScreamingEagles said:
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I wonder what the cult will think of that?TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
It's going to be interesting to see how the true believers spin this as the act of a Remainer.GIN1138 said:
Thanks Jezza... We couldn't have done any of this without him!MarqueeMark said:
Just rejoice at that news.....TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
MalkyG sounding particular testy this morning. Any particular reason?0
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Problem is, what happens if the EU says no?TGOHF said:This is the key vote ... will Bercow allow it this time ?
https://twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/10883782511044771890 -
Perhaps we ought to have an animal's vote? After all, they were totally disenfranchised last time.0
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(As I have been saying since time immemorial)GIN1138 said:
Thanks Jezza... We couldn't have done any of this without him!MarqueeMark said:
Just rejoice at that news.....TheScreamingEagles said:
Jeremy Corbyn, Brexit's Bessy Mate.....0 -
I’ve found Malcolm’s twitter account.FrancisUrquhart said:MalkyG sounding particular testy this morning. Any particular reason?
https://twitter.com/80_mcswan/status/1088368145902043136?s=210 -
They will still find a way to blame the tories, the blairites, the zionists, etcglw said:
It's going to be interesting to see how the true believers spin this as the act of a Remainer.GIN1138 said:
Thanks Jezza... We couldn't have done any of this without him!MarqueeMark said:
Just rejoice at that news.....TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
So No GE, No 2nd Vote - what now, Labour?FrancisUrquhart said:
I wonder what the cult will think of that?TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
If there isn't going to be a referendum, that makes it harder to argue for an extension too, unless the Commons has agreed and it's just a short extension to complete the formalities.0
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Then May is in a far better position.DavidL said:
Problem is, what happens if the EU says no?TGOHF said:This is the key vote ... will Bercow allow it this time ?
https://twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1088378251104477189
We have a solution but the EU is inflexible and intransigent.
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TBH as a Remainer, I'm not too sad. It was bound to be even more vicious and divisive than the last one, given the threats emanating from some Leavers.FrancisUrquhart said:
I wonder what the cult will think of that?TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
So? What happens next?TGOHF said:
Then May is in a far better position.DavidL said:
Problem is, what happens if the EU says no?TGOHF said:This is the key vote ... will Bercow allow it this time ?
https://twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1088378251104477189
We have a solution but the EU is inflexible and intransigent.0 -
Then those 600 extra Gardai manning the EU border look to be massively inadequate for dealing with Hard Brexit.....DavidL said:
Problem is, what happens if the EU says no?TGOHF said:This is the key vote ... will Bercow allow it this time ?
https://twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/10883782511044771890 -
Whilst I enjoy the groundhog day of hah! Jezza is really caught out this time it might be worth waiting for the huge surge to the Lib Dems or drop in Labour before declaring success.
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Either the EU moves in some way or it doesn't.DavidL said:
So? What happens next?TGOHF said:
Then May is in a far better position.DavidL said:
Problem is, what happens if the EU says no?TGOHF said:This is the key vote ... will Bercow allow it this time ?
https://twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1088378251104477189
We have a solution but the EU is inflexible and intransigent.
Either outcome is better than the current impasse at Westminster.0 -
No Deal does not create certainty, or anything close to it, because it is not the end position. The only way to get certainty is to sign a deal. That is what May has going for her.DavidL said:
I don't think that there is any doubt that the uncertainty caused by Brexit has caused at least a pause in investment and the sooner things are resolved the better. That is particularly so given the fragile state of the EZ and the negative trade winds from China and the USA. It is one of the reasons that I would be opposed to any continuation of the Article 50 period for anything other than the most technical of reasons where everyone knew where they stood. The uncertainty is worse than almost any possible outcome because you cannot plan.SouthamObserver said:
Low productivity has its upsides. However, this should worry all of us:DavidL said:
Record employment.Scott_P said:
Business is already leaving.MarqueeMark said:We'll find out when we leave.
Find out how much horse shit has been generated. And by whom.
That already tells us how much crap the Brexiteers were peddling.
Record level of economically active adults.
Record vacancies.
https://www.bbc.com/news/business-46646900
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This for the public “drat, my hands have been forced” politics is a very sensible approach right now.Scott_P said:
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Agreed. Those with bets on 30th March departures should be looking a little more smug this morning.Chris said:If there isn't going to be a referendum, that makes it harder to argue for an extension too, unless the Commons has agreed and it's just a short extension to complete the formalities.
The question really is where the second vote segment goes. Some will jump straight to revoke but my guess is that some will also go to May's deal with the bells and whistles of guarantees on employment rights, environmental standards and, possibly, a CU. If the ERG also comes around to the view that its this or no Brexit the deal as amended has to be favourite. I have relatively little time for May but if she pulls this off it will be a remarkable achievement.0 -
Wollaston and Chuka admit they don't have the numbers without Jezza.
Not as easy as it looks this passing a vote malarky is it..0 -
Thanks. It's not a deal breaker for me but I am interested to understand the likely worst case scenario for sterling v euro exchange rates.Chris said:
Surely the current exchange rate must be a weighted average of the No Deal rate and the Deal/Remain rate. The betting markets at least are implying a low probability of No Deal. So I don't think you can assume that the current rate has already discounted the possibility of No Deal.OllyT said:Genuine question for the PB financial brains trust.
If we get a no deal Brexit and our worst fears are realised what exchange rate band with the euro do they see the pound settling at?
I can't decide whether the drop in rates since 2016 has now largely discounted the effects of Brexit or is there a lot to come.
Would I be fairly safe to work on the basis of parity with the euro being the worst case scenario? I am stress-testing our finances for possible retirement in a eurozone country!
The Bank of England reportedly said in November the pound could lose a quarter of its value in the event of a "disorderly" Brexit. Exchange rates then weren't very different from now.0 -
A hard border due to British intransigence forced on an unwilling Ireland is a rather different thing to one that the Irish government has agreed to. Depicting the first as British arrogance and hegemony is ideal for Irish republicans wanting 32 county unification.MarqueeMark said:
Then those 600 extra Gardai manning the EU border look to be massively inadequate for dealing with Hard Brexit.....DavidL said:
Problem is, what happens if the EU says no?TGOHF said:This is the key vote ... will Bercow allow it this time ?
https://twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/10883782511044771890 -
TM deal is agreeing now to delayed delay and uncertainty.Big_G_NorthWales said:
TM deal is there now, the rest is delay and uncertaintyBarnesian said:Sterling very strong this morning.
Financial markets anticipating a very soft BINO or none at all?0 -
Extend to do what, though? Now there's no second referendum. Time to piss or get off the pot, MPs. You can do that next week.dots said:
This for the public “drat, my hands have been forced” politics is a very sensible approach right now.Scott_P said:
Labour MPs, support May's Deal. Then when the DUP sink this minority Government, you can have that general election in the spring - and the voters can decide if they want Brave New Brexitland to be headed by Jeremy Corbyn....0 -
I still can't believe MPs will vote to revoke without a second referendum to cover them. I'd find it difficult to believe even if the Labour leadership were backing revocation.TheScreamingEagles said:
But probably increased the chances of revocation of Article 50.GIN1138 said:
Oh what a shame...Big_G_NorthWales said:
Looks as if the option of a referendum has just gone up in smoke0 -
End of 2021 is no time at all! We'd be bloody lucky to have anything done by then.DavidL said:
So? What happens next?TGOHF said:
Then May is in a far better position.DavidL said:
Problem is, what happens if the EU says no?TGOHF said:This is the key vote ... will Bercow allow it this time ?
https://twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1088378251104477189
We have a solution but the EU is inflexible and intransigent.
Remember our preferred way of the backstop is to revolutionise the way we manage the border, in technological terms, to take check away from the border and minimise their impact on border communities. How could we ever get that done by 31 December 2021?0 -
I think that's right.SeanT said:
No Tory PM could revoke and survive. Unless he or she called a GE with that in the manifesto - and then won the election. The chances of this are approximately less than zero.TheScreamingEagles said:
But probably increased the chances of revocation of Article 50.GIN1138 said:
Oh what a shame...Big_G_NorthWales said:
Looks as if the option of a referendum has just gone up in smoke
The fog of war is thick. If a referendum really is ruled out, one of two impossible Brexits must now happen. Parliament accepts the Deal, or Parliament accepts No Deal.0 -
Up to a point. the WA is not the final deal (not that we will ever have a "final deal" with the EU). But an agreed departure where we have paid our debts and agreed terms greatly improves the prospects of a satisfactory trade agreement once we have left. Leaving with no deal makes such a trade deal a somewhat distant prospect. That makes the argument for May's deal with whatever amendments we can get away with a no brainer for me.SouthamObserver said:
No Deal does not create certainty, or anything close to it, because it is not the end position. The only way to get certainty is to sign a deal. That is what May has going for her.DavidL said:
I don't think that there is any doubt that the uncertainty caused by Brexit has caused at least a pause in investment and the sooner things are resolved the better. That is particularly so given the fragile state of the EZ and the negative trade winds from China and the USA. It is one of the reasons that I would be opposed to any continuation of the Article 50 period for anything other than the most technical of reasons where everyone knew where they stood. The uncertainty is worse than almost any possible outcome because you cannot plan.SouthamObserver said:
Low productivity has its upsides. However, this should worry all of us:DavidL said:
Record employment.Scott_P said:
Business is already leaving.MarqueeMark said:We'll find out when we leave.
Find out how much horse shit has been generated. And by whom.
That already tells us how much crap the Brexiteers were peddling.
Record level of economically active adults.
Record vacancies.
https://www.bbc.com/news/business-466469000 -
Put Chris Grayteeth in charge.TheWhiteRabbit said:How could we ever get that done by 31 December 2021?
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I saw Dr Vince on telly last night going on about a "People's Vote"TheJezziah said:Whilst I enjoy the groundhog day of hah! Jezza is really caught out this time it might be worth waiting for the huge surge to the Lib Dems or drop in Labour before declaring success.
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No PM of any flavour could survive No Deal.SeanT said:No Tory PM could revoke and survive. Unless he or she called a GE with that in the manifesto - and then won the election. The chances of this are approximately less than zero.
The fog of war is thick. If a referendum really is ruled out, one of two impossible Brexits must now happen. Parliament accepts the Deal, or Parliament accepts No Deal.
Revoking would be the obvious choice0 -
Not a permanent revocation just a temporary one if the EU don’t allow us to extend Article 50.SeanT said:
No Tory PM could revoke and survive. Unless he or she called a GE with that in the manifesto - and then won the election. The chances of this are approximately less than zero.TheScreamingEagles said:
But probably increased the chances of revocation of Article 50.GIN1138 said:
Oh what a shame...Big_G_NorthWales said:
Looks as if the option of a referendum has just gone up in smoke
The fog of war is thick. If a referendum really is ruled out, one of two impossible Brexits must now happen. Parliament accepts the Deal, or Parliament accepts No Deal.0 -
Mike often points out that the "best PM" polls are the most reliable indicator of GE success. Is Mr Thicky above or below 20% in the latest ones? I think when some of the more gullible younger voters realise he has condemned them to Brexit it may drop further. At what level does he have to drop to before he stops even fooling some of the people some of the time?TheJezziah said:Whilst I enjoy the groundhog day of hah! Jezza is really caught out this time it might be worth waiting for the huge surge to the Lib Dems or drop in Labour before declaring success.
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Thanks. Help me get my head round this, surely a time limited backstop isn’t actually a backstop at all? And EU, British Government, and British Parliament all agree there should be a backstop?TGOHF said:
Either the EU moves in some way or it doesn't.DavidL said:
So? What happens next?TGOHF said:
Then May is in a far better position.DavidL said:
Problem is, what happens if the EU says no?TGOHF said:This is the key vote ... will Bercow allow it this time ?
https://twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1088378251104477189
We have a solution but the EU is inflexible and intransigent.
Either outcome is better than the current impasse at Westminster.0 -
The peoples vote campaigners looked thoroughly deflated at their announcement this morning that they had abandoned the peoples vote amendment, including Sarah Wollaston, Luciana Berger, Chris Lesley and Chuka UmunnaTGOHF said:Wollaston and Chuka admit they don't have the numbers without Jezza.
Not as easy as it looks this passing a vote malarky is it..
We had the extraordinary sight of conservative Sarah Wollaston absolutely begging Jeremy Corbyn to back the peoples vote. Surreal0 -
There’s no 2nd ref support *yet* because there’s not the political cover. Once MPs vote to ask for an extension, May gets told ‘yes, you can have one, if it’s for an election or referendum’ then Labour can go for NC again, saying that they are doing it because an extension is essential and they are aiming for an election. When they inevitably lose, they can reasonably back a referendum as the only way of securing the extension needed to avert disaster. No point taking the political damage of backing it now.MarqueeMark said:
Extend to do what, though? Now there's no second referendum. Time to piss or get off the pot, MPs. You can do that next week.dots said:
This for the public “drat, my hands have been forced” politics is a very sensible approach right now.Scott_P said:
Labour MPs, support May's Deal. Then when the DUP sink this minority Government, you can have that general election in the spring - and the voters can decide if they want Brave New Brexitland to be headed by Jeremy Corbyn....0 -
Thanks. Don't worry I'm only canvassing opinions. We wouldn't be on the breadline even if it dropped a lot further but as chunks of income will be in sterling it is a factor.Barnesian said:
I'm buying a few Euros this morning at > €1.15. I'm waiting a little while longer before I buy overseas equities in bulk. I anticipate sterling going to €1.20 and $1.40 in a couple of month's time.OllyT said:Genuine question for the PB financial brains trust.
If we get a no deal Brexit and our worst fears are realised what exchange rate band with the euro do they see the pound settling at?
I can't decide whether the drop in rates since 2016 has now largely discounted the effects of Brexit or is there a lot to come.
Would I be fairly safe to work on the basis of parity with the euro being the worst case scenario? I am stress-testing our finances for possible retirement in a eurozone country!
On the downside I think you would be fairly safe to work on the basis of parity with the euro being the worst case scenario, though there could be some very short term blips worse than that.
PS Please understand that I'm guessing! If I were good at this I'd be a very wealthy currency trader.0 -
Jezza has never been one to be swayed by opinion polling IMO.Nigel_Foremain said:
Mike often points out that the "best PM" polls are the most reliable indicator of GE success. Is Mr Thicky above or below 20% in the latest ones? I think when some of the more gullible younger voters realise he has condemned them to Brexit it may drop further. At what level does he have to drop to before he stops even fooling some of the people some of the time?TheJezziah said:Whilst I enjoy the groundhog day of hah! Jezza is really caught out this time it might be worth waiting for the huge surge to the Lib Dems or drop in Labour before declaring success.
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Again... Parliment is very good at voting against something, and bad, without structure at voting for something.TGOHF said:Wollaston and Chuka admit they don't have the numbers without Jezza.
Not as easy as it looks this passing a vote malarky is it..
This is why both political parties, and whips are a required evil.
Bercow's policy of being on the side of parliment vs government is all very good, but it doesn't work that well. He should have struck a much more neutral tone for both sides.0 -
A time limited backstop can be extended if BOTH sides agree.dots said:
Thanks. Help me get my head round this, surely a time limited backstop isn’t actually a backstop at all? And EU, British Government, and British Parliament all agree there should be a backstop?TGOHF said:
Either the EU moves in some way or it doesn't.DavidL said:
So? What happens next?TGOHF said:
Then May is in a far better position.DavidL said:
Problem is, what happens if the EU says no?TGOHF said:This is the key vote ... will Bercow allow it this time ?
https://twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1088378251104477189
We have a solution but the EU is inflexible and intransigent.
Either outcome is better than the current impasse at Westminster.
Robbins-Barnier deal didn't allow either side to leave unilaterally.
This keeps the pressure on for a trade deal.0 -
Would the Tory party believe it was really only temporary, in the absence of a believable plan to make Brexit work in the future?TheScreamingEagles said:
Not a permanent revocation just a temporary one if the EU don’t allow us to extend Article 50.SeanT said:
No Tory PM could revoke and survive. Unless he or she called a GE with that in the manifesto - and then won the election. The chances of this are approximately less than zero.TheScreamingEagles said:
But probably increased the chances of revocation of Article 50.GIN1138 said:
Oh what a shame...Big_G_NorthWales said:
Looks as if the option of a referendum has just gone up in smoke
The fog of war is thick. If a referendum really is ruled out, one of two impossible Brexits must now happen. Parliament accepts the Deal, or Parliament accepts No Deal.0 -
Corbyn is in fact hoping for No Deal. All the evidence would suggest that No Deal would provide the only conditions under which he would stand a chance of being elected.Scott_P said:
No PM of any flavour could survive No Deal.SeanT said:No Tory PM could revoke and survive. Unless he or she called a GE with that in the manifesto - and then won the election. The chances of this are approximately less than zero.
The fog of war is thick. If a referendum really is ruled out, one of two impossible Brexits must now happen. Parliament accepts the Deal, or Parliament accepts No Deal.
Revoking would be the obvious choice0 -
I think its Noel Edmonds time and deal is the hot favourite. Remarkable.SeanT said:
I know it’s what you want. On a very bad day - when Brexit is looking like a particularly violent shitshow - I might agree with you. Just end it. Enough. Pretend it never happened.Scott_P said:
No PM of any flavour could survive No Deal.SeanT said:No Tory PM could revoke and survive. Unless he or she called a GE with that in the manifesto - and then won the election. The chances of this are approximately less than zero.
The fog of war is thick. If a referendum really is ruled out, one of two impossible Brexits must now happen. Parliament accepts the Deal, or Parliament accepts No Deal.
Revoking would be the obvious choice
But that’s not reality. The reality is no prime minister could ever trample over democracy, indeed cancel democracy, by simply revoking. Dream on.0 -
This - which is why it would be very strange if the uber remainers like Soubry and Grieve failed to back the Murrison amendment....Nigel_Foremain said:
Corbyn is in fact hoping for No Deal. All the evidence would suggest that No Deal would provide the only conditions under which he would stand a chance of being elected.Scott_P said:
No PM of any flavour could survive No Deal.SeanT said:No Tory PM could revoke and survive. Unless he or she called a GE with that in the manifesto - and then won the election. The chances of this are approximately less than zero.
The fog of war is thick. If a referendum really is ruled out, one of two impossible Brexits must now happen. Parliament accepts the Deal, or Parliament accepts No Deal.
Revoking would be the obvious choice
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There isn't a believable plan to make Brexit "work". There may be plans to mitigate its inevitable damage, though none to make it work.Chris said:
Would the Tory party believe it was really only temporary, in the absence of a believable plan to make Brexit work in the future?TheScreamingEagles said:
Not a permanent revocation just a temporary one if the EU don’t allow us to extend Article 50.SeanT said:
No Tory PM could revoke and survive. Unless he or she called a GE with that in the manifesto - and then won the election. The chances of this are approximately less than zero.TheScreamingEagles said:
But probably increased the chances of revocation of Article 50.GIN1138 said:
Oh what a shame...Big_G_NorthWales said:
Looks as if the option of a referendum has just gone up in smoke
The fog of war is thick. If a referendum really is ruled out, one of two impossible Brexits must now happen. Parliament accepts the Deal, or Parliament accepts No Deal.0 -
I think that’s circular: if the Tory party doesn’t believe there is a viable plan to make Brexit work, presumably they would agree that revoking is a good idea.Chris said:
Would the Tory party believe it was really only temporary, in the absence of a believable plan to make Brexit work in the future?TheScreamingEagles said:
Not a permanent revocation just a temporary one if the EU don’t allow us to extend Article 50.SeanT said:
No Tory PM could revoke and survive. Unless he or she called a GE with that in the manifesto - and then won the election. The chances of this are approximately less than zero.TheScreamingEagles said:
But probably increased the chances of revocation of Article 50.GIN1138 said:
Oh what a shame...Big_G_NorthWales said:
Looks as if the option of a referendum has just gone up in smoke
The fog of war is thick. If a referendum really is ruled out, one of two impossible Brexits must now happen. Parliament accepts the Deal, or Parliament accepts No Deal.0 -
If someone like Gove supported it....Chris said:
Would the Tory party believe it was really only temporary, in the absence of a believable plan to make Brexit work in the future?TheScreamingEagles said:
Not a permanent revocation just a temporary one if the EU don’t allow us to extend Article 50.SeanT said:
No Tory PM could revoke and survive. Unless he or she called a GE with that in the manifesto - and then won the election. The chances of this are approximately less than zero.TheScreamingEagles said:
But probably increased the chances of revocation of Article 50.GIN1138 said:
Oh what a shame...Big_G_NorthWales said:
Looks as if the option of a referendum has just gone up in smoke
The fog of war is thick. If a referendum really is ruled out, one of two impossible Brexits must now happen. Parliament accepts the Deal, or Parliament accepts No Deal.0 -
They will think lets hope Labours amendment for a permanent CU and taking No Deal off the table passes. Also calls for a Yes/No Referendum on The Deal that commands Parliamentary Majority doesnt it.FrancisUrquhart said:
I wonder what the cult will think of that?TheScreamingEagles said:
A Losers Vote with remain as an option has always been the final option once the Cliff Edge is reached.0 -
Your "can do" attitude is just what these negotiations need.Nigel_Foremain said:
There isn't a believable plan to make Brexit "work". There may be plans to mitigate its inevitable damage, though none to make it work.Chris said:
Would the Tory party believe it was really only temporary, in the absence of a believable plan to make Brexit work in the future?TheScreamingEagles said:
Not a permanent revocation just a temporary one if the EU don’t allow us to extend Article 50.SeanT said:
No Tory PM could revoke and survive. Unless he or she called a GE with that in the manifesto - and then won the election. The chances of this are approximately less than zero.TheScreamingEagles said:
But probably increased the chances of revocation of Article 50.GIN1138 said:
Oh what a shame...Big_G_NorthWales said:
Looks as if the option of a referendum has just gone up in smoke
The fog of war is thick. If a referendum really is ruled out, one of two impossible Brexits must now happen. Parliament accepts the Deal, or Parliament accepts No Deal.0 -
No, we’d be honest.SeanT said:
Wtf is a temporary revocation? You mean literally lie to the EU and say we’re cancelling Brexit even though official government policy, known to all, will be to re-trigger A50 in a year or two and Brexit all over again?TheScreamingEagles said:
Not a permanent revocation just a temporary one if the EU don’t allow us to extend Article 50.SeanT said:
No Tory PM could revoke and survive. Unless he or she called a GE with that in the manifesto - and then won the election. The chances of this are approximately less than zero.TheScreamingEagles said:
But probably increased the chances of revocation of Article 50.GIN1138 said:
Oh what a shame...Big_G_NorthWales said:
Looks as if the option of a referendum has just gone up in smoke
The fog of war is thick. If a referendum really is ruled out, one of two impossible Brexits must now happen. Parliament accepts the Deal, or Parliament accepts No Deal.
Yep. Can’t see any problems with that. Should calm everything down. Bring back much needed stability. Lol.
We can unilaterally revoke A50 then reinvoke later.
Extension of A50 needs the support of every other EU nation.0 -
It really isn'tDavidL said:
I think its Noel Edmonds time and deal is the hot favourite. Remarkable.SeanT said:
I know it’s what you want. On a very bad day - when Brexit is looking like a particularly violent shitshow - I might agree with you. Just end it. Enough. Pretend it never happened.Scott_P said:
No PM of any flavour could survive No Deal.SeanT said:No Tory PM could revoke and survive. Unless he or she called a GE with that in the manifesto - and then won the election. The chances of this are approximately less than zero.
The fog of war is thick. If a referendum really is ruled out, one of two impossible Brexits must now happen. Parliament accepts the Deal, or Parliament accepts No Deal.
Revoking would be the obvious choice
But that’s not reality. The reality is no prime minister could ever trample over democracy, indeed cancel democracy, by simply revoking. Dream on.0 -
Another EU referendum is gradually being revealed as the unicorn that IMO it always was but the process is far from complete. Still a 28% chance per the betting, down from 33% yesterday.0
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Negotiations are over, and the Deal is rejected. No Deal is increasingly inevitable.TGOHF said:
Your "can do" attitude is just what these negotiations need.Nigel_Foremain said:
There isn't a believable plan to make Brexit "work". There may be plans to mitigate its inevitable damage, though none to make it work.Chris said:
Would the Tory party believe it was really only temporary, in the absence of a believable plan to make Brexit work in the future?TheScreamingEagles said:
Not a permanent revocation just a temporary one if the EU don’t allow us to extend Article 50.SeanT said:
No Tory PM could revoke and survive. Unless he or she called a GE with that in the manifesto - and then won the election. The chances of this are approximately less than zero.TheScreamingEagles said:
But probably increased the chances of revocation of Article 50.GIN1138 said:
Oh what a shame...Big_G_NorthWales said:
Looks as if the option of a referendum has just gone up in smoke
The fog of war is thick. If a referendum really is ruled out, one of two impossible Brexits must now happen. Parliament accepts the Deal, or Parliament accepts No Deal.0 -
So you want years more of uncertainty?TheScreamingEagles said:
Not a permanent revocation just a temporary one if the EU don’t allow us to extend Article 50.SeanT said:
No Tory PM could revoke and survive. Unless he or she called a GE with that in the manifesto - and then won the election. The chances of this are approximately less than zero.TheScreamingEagles said:
But probably increased the chances of revocation of Article 50.GIN1138 said:
Oh what a shame...Big_G_NorthWales said:
Looks as if the option of a referendum has just gone up in smoke
The fog of war is thick. If a referendum really is ruled out, one of two impossible Brexits must now happen. Parliament accepts the Deal, or Parliament accepts No Deal.0 -
From what I understand I hope they do, but I also deeply respect their determination not to let the madness known as Brexit to cause us to crash our economy. Calling them "uber-remainers" is just silly. They are doing their jobs in the face of extreme abuse from people who have a lot less understanding of the responsibilities of parliament than they do.TGOHF said:
This - which is why it would be very strange if the uber remainers like Soubry and Grieve failed to back the Murrison amendment....Nigel_Foremain said:
Corbyn is in fact hoping for No Deal. All the evidence would suggest that No Deal would provide the only conditions under which he would stand a chance of being elected.Scott_P said:
No PM of any flavour could survive No Deal.SeanT said:No Tory PM could revoke and survive. Unless he or she called a GE with that in the manifesto - and then won the election. The chances of this are approximately less than zero.
The fog of war is thick. If a referendum really is ruled out, one of two impossible Brexits must now happen. Parliament accepts the Deal, or Parliament accepts No Deal.
Revoking would be the obvious choice0 -
TMay's strategy is always to fudge everything and tell simultaneous contradictory lies to both sides, so it's not quite impossible to see. Tell the EU it's a genuine revocation, then tell the Tories haha, I'm sticking it to those foreigners and we'll come back and rebrexit later after buying more ferries, while all the while what she's really doing is... well, nobody knows, probably not even her.SeanT said:
Wtf is a temporary revocation? You mean literally lie to the EU and say we’re cancelling Brexit even though official government policy, known to all, will be to re-trigger A50 in a year or two and Brexit all over again?
Yep. Can’t see any problems with that. Should calm everything down. Bring back much needed stability. Lol.0 -
Remainers seem very angry at these attempts to forge a deal and avoid a hard Brexit...Foxy said:
Negotiations are over, and the Deal is rejected. No Deal is increasingly inevitable.TGOHF said:
Your "can do" attitude is just what these negotiations need.Nigel_Foremain said:
There isn't a believable plan to make Brexit "work". There may be plans to mitigate its inevitable damage, though none to make it work.Chris said:
Would the Tory party believe it was really only temporary, in the absence of a believable plan to make Brexit work in the future?TheScreamingEagles said:
Not a permanent revocation just a temporary one if the EU don’t allow us to extend Article 50.SeanT said:
No Tory PM could revoke and survive. Unless he or she called a GE with that in the manifesto - and then won the election. The chances of this are approximately less than zero.TheScreamingEagles said:
But probably increased the chances of revocation of Article 50.GIN1138 said:
Oh what a shame...Big_G_NorthWales said:
Looks as if the option of a referendum has just gone up in smoke
The fog of war is thick. If a referendum really is ruled out, one of two impossible Brexits must now happen. Parliament accepts the Deal, or Parliament accepts No Deal.
0 -
What do you think is?bigjohnowls said:
It really isn'tDavidL said:
I think its Noel Edmonds time and deal is the hot favourite. Remarkable.SeanT said:
I know it’s what you want. On a very bad day - when Brexit is looking like a particularly violent shitshow - I might agree with you. Just end it. Enough. Pretend it never happened.Scott_P said:
No PM of any flavour could survive No Deal.SeanT said:No Tory PM could revoke and survive. Unless he or she called a GE with that in the manifesto - and then won the election. The chances of this are approximately less than zero.
The fog of war is thick. If a referendum really is ruled out, one of two impossible Brexits must now happen. Parliament accepts the Deal, or Parliament accepts No Deal.
Revoking would be the obvious choice
But that’s not reality. The reality is no prime minister could ever trample over democracy, indeed cancel democracy, by simply revoking. Dream on.
Second vote seemingly off the table.
Minimal support for revocation.
Strong majority in the House to avoid no deal.
May, finally, showing some flexibility on concerns about her deal.
The ERG getting rattled about the possibility of not getting Brexit at all.
Corbyn clear that there will be a Brexit.
There are several fences still to jump but the lead is a lot more than a short head.0 -
Will Bercow stymie Murrison's amendment again?0
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I'd understood that it was a tactical decision by those in favour not to force a vote on a People's Vote yet. The idea is to see the impasse continue to build up, thus increasing the desirability of a way through the logjam. It seems to me that the People's Vote lobby at least have got their shit together cross-party if no one has broken ranks.0
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Cheer up, referendum re-runners. I voted Labour when Michael Foot was in charge. Best thing to do is pick yourself up, dust yourself off, and whistle a merry tune. It doesn't help much but it's better then nothing.0
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Key allies of Venezuela’s president, Nicolás Maduro, led by Russia and China, have warned the US not to stage an “external intervention” in support of the opposition leader Juan Guaidó’s bid to lead the country.
Russia issued a strong declaration of support of Maduro’s government on Thursday, saying a US military intervention in Venezuela would be “catastrophic”.0 -
Nah, I am no longer bothered whether there is a Deal or not. Indeed there is much to be said for No Deal. Certainly economically, socially and diplomatically damaging, but perhaps nessecary.TGOHF said:
Remainers seem very angry at these attempts to forge a deal and avoid a hard Brexit...Foxy said:
Negotiations are over, and the Deal is rejected. No Deal is increasingly inevitable.TGOHF said:
Your "can do" attitude is just what these negotiations need.Nigel_Foremain said:
There isn't a believable plan to make Brexit "work". There may be plans to mitigate its inevitable damage, though none to make it work.Chris said:
Would the Tory party believe it was really only temporary, in the absence of a believable plan to make Brexit work in the future?TheScreamingEagles said:
Not a permanent revocation just a temporary one if the EU don’t allow us to extend Article 50.SeanT said:
No Tory PM could revoke and survive. Unless he or she called a GE with that in the manifesto - and then won the election. The chances of this are approximately less than zero.TheScreamingEagles said:
But probably increased the chances of revocation of Article 50.GIN1138 said:
Oh what a shame...Big_G_NorthWales said:
Looks as if the option of a referendum has just gone up in smoke
The fog of war is thick. If a referendum really is ruled out, one of two impossible Brexits must now happen. Parliament accepts the Deal, or Parliament accepts No Deal.0 -
Would invoking Article 50 (again) not necessitate a vote in the Commons, which it would likely lose?
Mr. Meeks, that's my reading too. Removing revocation/referendum from immediate consideration makes it likelier an extension gets through, and more time is what those heavily pro-EU need to try and get us to Remain.0 -
Not sure what the precedent/rulebook is here, or whether that matters these days, but given that it’s a wrecking amendment with tacit government support my guess is that he will not select it until it’s adopted by the government - which doesn’t seem immediately unreasonable.geoffw said:Will Bercow stymie Murrison's amendment again?
0 -
A bit early for thinking about Christmas presents, but one for Seamus’ Santa list.....
A Russian toymaker has released a board game called Our Guys in Salisbury, featuring the same cities in Europe visited by the GRU agents accused of carrying out last year’s nerve agent attack.
Asked whether he thought a board game about the Salisbury attack, in which one person died and four more were hospitalised, would offend Britons, he said: “We didn’t want to offend anyone. On the contrary, we wanted to support our countrymen who might be offended by this situation … a lot of things are said and a lot of it without any proof.”0 -
I think "Remainers" are very angry about the whole stupid process. It has achieved nothing, and will continue to achieve nothing. However, it is necessary to push ahead, IMO, as people have inadvisably voted for it, but it doesn't make it right or sensible. Damage limitation will now be everyone's responsibility. I only hope that those who advocated it (Gove, Johnson, Rees Mogg et al.) and those like Corbyn who have been duplicitous over it, eventually get their comeuppance.TGOHF said:
Remainers seem very angry at these attempts to forge a deal and avoid a hard Brexit...Foxy said:
Negotiations are over, and the Deal is rejected. No Deal is increasingly inevitable.TGOHF said:
Your "can do" attitude is just what these negotiations need.Nigel_Foremain said:
There isn't a believable plan to make Brexit "work". There may be plans to mitigate its inevitable damage, though none to make it work.Chris said:
Would the Tory party believe it was really only temporary, in the absence of a believable plan to make Brexit work in the future?TheScreamingEagles said:
Not a permanent revocation just a temporary one if the EU don’t allow us to extend Article 50.SeanT said:
No Tory PM could revoke and survive. Unless he or she called a GE with that in the manifesto - and then won the election. The chances of this are approximately less than zero.TheScreamingEagles said:
But probably increased the chances of revocation of Article 50.GIN1138 said:
Oh what a shame...Big_G_NorthWales said:
Looks as if the option of a referendum has just gone up in smoke
The fog of war is thick. If a referendum really is ruled out, one of two impossible Brexits must now happen. Parliament accepts the Deal, or Parliament accepts No Deal.0 -
Can we unban @grabcocque please, there's stuff kicking off in the House of Commons again that will require detailed parliamentary knowledge and swearing.0
-
Pardon my naïvity, but why is it a wrecking amendment?Polruan said:
Not sure what the precedent/rulebook is here, or whether that matters these days, but given that it’s a wrecking amendment with tacit government support my guess is that he will not select it until it’s adopted by the government - which doesn’t seem immediately unreasonable.geoffw said:Will Bercow stymie Murrison's amendment again?
0 -
Always look on the bright side of life de dum, de dum de dum de dum.CD13 said:Cheer up, referendum re-runners. I voted Labour when Michael Foot was in charge. Best thing to do is pick yourself up, dust yourself off, and whistle a merry tune. It doesn't help much but it's better then nothing.
0 -
-
No but I’d expect Parliament wants to avoid No Deal and damaging resultant consequences therein.Philip_Thompson said:
So you want years more of uncertainty?TheScreamingEagles said:
Not a permanent revocation just a temporary one if the EU don’t allow us to extend Article 50.SeanT said:
No Tory PM could revoke and survive. Unless he or she called a GE with that in the manifesto - and then won the election. The chances of this are approximately less than zero.TheScreamingEagles said:
But probably increased the chances of revocation of Article 50.GIN1138 said:
Oh what a shame...Big_G_NorthWales said:
Looks as if the option of a referendum has just gone up in smoke
The fog of war is thick. If a referendum really is ruled out, one of two impossible Brexits must now happen. Parliament accepts the Deal, or Parliament accepts No Deal.0 -
Perhaps after the Brexit thing is largely over, Putin will also authorise a games manufacturer to produce a computer game where you attempt to influence the gullible into supporting a self-harming national referendum or presidential election.FrancisUrquhart said:A bit early for thinking about Christmas presents, but one for Seamus’ Santa list.....
A Russian toymaker has released a board game called Our Guys in Salisbury, featuring the same cities in Europe visited by the GRU agents accused of carrying out last year’s nerve agent attack.
Asked whether he thought a board game about the Salisbury attack, in which one person died and four more were hospitalised, would offend Britons, he said: “We didn’t want to offend anyone. On the contrary, we wanted to support our countrymen who might be offended by this situation … a lot of things are said and a lot of it without any proof.”0 -
Who is the subject of this sentence?TheScreamingEagles said:
No but I’d expect wants to avoid No Deal and damaging resultant consequences therein.Philip_Thompson said:
So you want years more of uncertainty?TheScreamingEagles said:
Not a permanent revocation just a temporary one if the EU don’t allow us to extend Article 50.SeanT said:
No Tory PM could revoke and survive. Unless he or she called a GE with that in the manifesto - and then won the election. The chances of this are approximately less than zero.TheScreamingEagles said:
But probably increased the chances of revocation of Article 50.GIN1138 said:
Oh what a shame...Big_G_NorthWales said:
Looks as if the option of a referendum has just gone up in smoke
The fog of war is thick. If a referendum really is ruled out, one of two impossible Brexits must now happen. Parliament accepts the Deal, or Parliament accepts No Deal.
0 -
The Labour Amendment for a full CU needs to be voted on.DavidL said:
What do you think is?bigjohnowls said:
It really isn'tDavidL said:
I think its Noel Edmonds time and deal is the hot favourite. Remarkable.SeanT said:
I know it’s what you want. On a very bad day - when Brexit is looking like a particularly violent shitshow - I might agree with you. Just end it. Enough. Pretend it never happened.Scott_P said:
No PM of any flavour could survive No Deal.SeanT said:No Tory PM could revoke and survive. Unless he or she called a GE with that in the manifesto - and then won the election. The chances of this are approximately less than zero.
The fog of war is thick. If a referendum really is ruled out, one of two impossible Brexits must now happen. Parliament accepts the Deal, or Parliament accepts No Deal.
Revoking would be the obvious choice
But that’s not reality. The reality is no prime minister could ever trample over democracy, indeed cancel democracy, by simply revoking. Dream on.
Second vote seemingly off the table.
Minimal support for revocation.
Strong majority in the House to avoid no deal.
May, finally, showing some flexibility on concerns about her deal.
The ERG getting rattled about the possibility of not getting Brexit at all.
Corbyn clear that there will be a Brexit.
There are several fences still to jump but the lead is a lot more than a short head.
If moderate Tories/ DUP don't support that Tory shit deal or no deal (electoral disaster either way)0 -
Consumed alcohol and posted, late night.SeanT said:
He’s banned?! Ooooh. What did he DO?edmundintokyo said:Can we unban @grabcocque please, there's stuff kicking off in the House of Commons again that will require detailed parliamentary knowledge and swearing.
0 -
Only one is a positive suggestion to move a deal closer - Murrison.Scott_P said:
Others are just virtue signalling/ can kicking in the hope of overturning the first referendum.
0 -
It’s not completely clear (to me at least) what the status of this next motion is, but the original ‘meaningful’ vote was to accept the withdrawal agreement, so an amendment saying ‘we won’t accept the WA but we’d accept something different’ defeats the purpose of the motion - whereas an amendment saying ‘we will accept the WA and we will also do x, y and z’ would be in keeping with the motion but have an effect on what happens next. I don’t think it’s black and white, but given the power the government has (had?) over the business of the house, it’s seen as not quite proper for the government to hide behind backbench amendments in this way rather than making its intentions clear.geoffw said:
Pardon my naïvity, but why is it a wrecking amendment?Polruan said:
Not sure what the precedent/rulebook is here, or whether that matters these days, but given that it’s a wrecking amendment with tacit government support my guess is that he will not select it until it’s adopted by the government - which doesn’t seem immediately unreasonable.geoffw said:Will Bercow stymie Murrison's amendment again?
0 -
The Uk should suggest that instead of the current Backstop proposal, the fall back position would be that there would be no hard border between Ireland and NI but the EU could put any hard border they require between Ireland and the rest of the EU.
Effectively allowing free movement of goods between the UK and Ireland but stopping this spreading to other EU countries with checks of imports from Ireland and the Uk at Calais, Rotterdam etc
So a hard border in the English Channel rather than in the Irish Sea.
There is talk in Ireland that this is the EUs answer to not having the power to force Ireland and the UK to put a hard border in place between Ireland and NI in the event of No Deal.0 -
Will of the People = Nothing.Nigel_Foremain said:
I think "Remainers" are very angry about the whole stupid process. It has achieved nothing, and will continue to achieve nothing. However, it is necessary to push ahead, IMO, as people have inadvisably voted for it, but it doesn't make it right or sensible. Damage limitation will now be everyone's responsibility. I only hope that those who advocated it (Gove, Johnson, Rees Mogg et al.) and those like Corbyn who have been duplicitous over it, eventually get their comeuppance.TGOHF said:
Remainers seem very angry at these attempts to forge a deal and avoid a hard Brexit...Foxy said:
Negotiations are over, and the Deal is rejected. No Deal is increasingly inevitable.TGOHF said:
Your "can do" attitude is just what these negotiations need.Nigel_Foremain said:
There isn't a believable plan to make Brexit "work". There may be plans to mitigate its inevitable damage, though none to make it work.Chris said:
Would the Tory party believe it was really only temporary, in the absence of a believable plan to make Brexit work in the future?TheScreamingEagles said:
Not a permanent revocation just a temporary one if the EU don’t allow us to extend Article 50.SeanT said:
No Tory PM could revoke and survive. Unless he or she called a GE with that in the manifesto - and then won the election. The chances of this are approximately less than zero.TheScreamingEagles said:
But probably increased the chances of revocation of Article 50.GIN1138 said:
Oh what a shame...Big_G_NorthWales said:
Looks as if the option of a referendum has just gone up in smoke
The fog of war is thick. If a referendum really is ruled out, one of two impossible Brexits must now happen. Parliament accepts the Deal, or Parliament accepts No Deal.
Says it all......0 -
Tell me, Corbyn has rather laughably said he would use his negotiating skills to get "a better deal". Other than the backstop, does anyone know which bits he would negotiate that would be better? Or are we rather lacking on the detail there? Is there any documentary evidence demonstrating that said LOTO has any skills or qualifications in the field of negotiating?bigjohnowls said:
The Labour Amendment for a full CU needs to be voted on.DavidL said:
What do you think is?bigjohnowls said:
It really isn'tDavidL said:
I think its Noel Edmonds time and deal is the hot favourite. Remarkable.SeanT said:
I know it’s what you want. On a very bad day - when Brexit is looking like a particularly violent shitshow - I might agree with you. Just end it. Enough. Pretend it never happened.Scott_P said:
No PM of any flavour could survive No Deal.SeanT said:No Tory PM could revoke and survive. Unless he or she called a GE with that in the manifesto - and then won the election. The chances of this are approximately less than zero.
The fog of war is thick. If a referendum really is ruled out, one of two impossible Brexits must now happen. Parliament accepts the Deal, or Parliament accepts No Deal.
Revoking would be the obvious choice
But that’s not reality. The reality is no prime minister could ever trample over democracy, indeed cancel democracy, by simply revoking. Dream on.
Second vote seemingly off the table.
Minimal support for revocation.
Strong majority in the House to avoid no deal.
May, finally, showing some flexibility on concerns about her deal.
The ERG getting rattled about the possibility of not getting Brexit at all.
Corbyn clear that there will be a Brexit.
There are several fences still to jump but the lead is a lot more than a short head.
If moderate Tories/ DUP don't support that Tory shit deal or no deal (electoral disaster either way)0
