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I was hoping for a thread of the best Canadian ice wines...

Matt Hancock just done an interview on Peston from Davos in -10 temperatures with no coat

The fact No Deal got a plurality on just 28% means very little, as the previous thread showed the Deal is still the least unacceptable choice

HYUFD said:

Matt Hancock just done an interview on Peston from Davos in -10 temperatures with no coat

At least we know he isn't a lizard then!

Peston reports Local Government by election analysis by Harry Hayfield and internal Tory polling is forecasting a Labour+SNP+LD government in any imminent election with Labour on 254 the SNP 44 and the LDs on 27

Foxy said:

HYUFD said:

Matt Hancock just done an interview on Peston from Davos in -10 temperatures with no coat

At least we know he isn't a lizard then!

He looked in urgent need of a hot chocolate though

HYUFD said:

Peston reports Local Government by election analysis by Harry Hayfield and internal Tory polling is forecasting a Labour+SNP+LD government in any imminent election with Labour on 254 the SNP 44 and the LDs on 27

Sounds ungovernable. I wouldn't count on either the SNP or LDs supporting Labour, or the Tories for that matter.

Foxy said:

HYUFD said:

Peston reports Local Government by election analysis by Harry Hayfield and internal Tory polling is forecasting a Labour+SNP+LD government in any imminent election with Labour on 254 the SNP 44 and the LDs on 27

Sounds ungovernable. I wouldn't count on either the SNP or LDs supporting Labour, or the Tories for that matter.

Well we couldn't just keep having election after election if the British public, irritatingly, keep returning awkwardly split hung parliaments. They'd have to come up with some kind of arrangement with someone. I know the coalition has burned them, but if they don't want to be kingmakers what's the point?

Foxy said:

HYUFD said:

Peston reports Local Government by election analysis by Harry Hayfield and internal Tory polling is forecasting a Labour+SNP+LD government in any imminent election with Labour on 254 the SNP 44 and the LDs on 27

Sounds ungovernable. I wouldn't count on either the SNP or LDs supporting Labour, or the Tories for that matter.

The SNP and LDs would back Corbyn on confidence and supply in return for BINO or EUref2, Boris would then likely take over as Tory Leader and Leader of the Opposition on a hard Brexit platform

HYUFD said:

Peston reports Local Government by election analysis by Harry Hayfield and internal Tory polling is forecasting a Labour+SNP+LD government in any imminent election with Labour on 254 the SNP 44 and the LDs on 27

Interesting, that would involve Labour losing about 8 seats.

williamglenn said:

Interesting take.
https://twitter.com/fleetstreetfox/status/1088053996386992129?s=21

Hmm, that doesn't really seem to refute the alternative perspective that Britain's going to leave, and it's going to be an unbelievable clusterfuck.

GIN1138 said:

HYUFD said:

Matt Hancock just done an interview on Peston from Davos in -10 temperatures with no coat

And the health secretary is living it up on the tax payer with multi-billionaires in Davos because???

Is he there at Soros I mean Davos in an official capacity

OT National Review has ALL THE DIRT on KLOBUCHAR
https://www.nationalreview.com/2019/01/twenty-things-you-probably-didnt-know-about-amy-klobuchar/

I defy anyone to find anyone with dirt this clean.

justin124 said:

HYUFD said:

justin124 said:

GIN1138 said:

HYUFD said:

Matt Hancock just done an interview on Peston from Davos in -10 temperatures with no coat

And the health secretary is living it up on the tax payer with multi-billionaires in Davos because???

Actually based on current polls giving a maximum Labour lead of 3% and a maximum Tory lead of 5% they look very plausible given another hung parliament is very likely

No -those figures have the LibDems far too high - as is almost always true of Local Election data.

Even if they may be a bit too high there is still a strong possibility Labour would not only need SNP confidence and supply but LD confidence and supply too in order to have a working majority

rottenborough said:

"Is a no-deal Brexit now the most popular outcome with the public?"

Only until April, when they find out the trade and logistics experts were actually telling the truth.

And pigs might fly.

"Ah yes this time there really is a wolf".

HYUFD said:

Peston reports Local Government by election analysis by Harry Hayfield and internal Tory polling is forecasting a Labour+SNP+LD government in any imminent election with Labour on 254 the SNP 44 and the LDs on 27

In the 2017 local elections the Conservatives put up a strong performance followed a few weeks later by a poor Conservative performance in the general election.

Local election results do not convert to general election results so nor do polls.

David_Evershed said:

HYUFD said:

Peston reports Local Government by election analysis by Harry Hayfield and internal Tory polling is forecasting a Labour+SNP+LD government in any imminent election with Labour on 254 the SNP 44 and the LDs on 27

In the 2017 local elections the Conservatives put up a strong performance followed a few weeks later by a poor Conservative performance in the general election.

Local election results do not convert to general election results so nor do polls.

That's true. For instance at the 1983 local elections Labour won Basildon easily, then lost it to the Tories at the GE a few weeks later.

Philip_Thompson said:

AndyJS said:

https://twitter.com/evagolinger/status/1088206537733099520

If Maduro is no longer President then he has no authority to expel the diplomats.

Given that Maduro only expelled the diplomats after the US recognised Guaido as interim President it would be extremely bizarre to say the diplomats must leave because President Maduro has ordered it.

It should be pointed out that the EU does not recognise Maduro as president, either.
There is widespread international agreement (which includes many South American countries) that Guaidó won the election and the results were fixed.

Nigelb said:

Philip_Thompson said:

AndyJS said:

https://twitter.com/evagolinger/status/1088206537733099520

If Maduro is no longer President then he has no authority to expel the diplomats.

Given that Maduro only expelled the diplomats after the US recognised Guaido as interim President it would be extremely bizarre to say the diplomats must leave because President Maduro has ordered it.

It should be pointed out that the EU does not recognise Maduro as president, either.
There is widespread international agreement (which includes many South American countries) that Guaidó won the election and the results were fixed.

I know nothing except what Wikipedia tells me but he doesn't appear to have run in the presidential election at all???

kle4 said:

edmundintokyo said:

Nigelb said:

Philip_Thompson said:

AndyJS said:

https://twitter.com/evagolinger/status/1088206537733099520

If Maduro is no longer President then he has no authority to expel the diplomats.

Given that Maduro only expelled the diplomats after the US recognised Guaido as interim President it would be extremely bizarre to say the diplomats must leave because President Maduro has ordered it.

It should be pointed out that the EU does not recognise Maduro as president, either.
There is widespread international agreement (which includes many South American countries) that Guaidó won the election and the results were fixed.

I know nothing except what Wikipedia tells me but he doesn't appear to have run in the presidential election at all???

Yes, I thought most of the opposition boycotted it and it was more about being in charge of the congress which Maduro sidelined and created a new puppet body to replace because he lost control of it?

Yup, I've now spent a few more minutes on Wikipedia and become a Venezuela expert, and I can confirm that this is correct.

https://twitter.com/nycsouthpaw/status/1088291391439032323

Nigelb said:

Not smart politics from Biden:
https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2019/01/joe-biden-fred-upton-paid-speech-2020-bipartisanship.html

Biden was praising the Republican for his work to get a bill for cancer care passed. That’s a good thing.

tlg86 said:

https://tinyurl.com/y8odjlvd

Guaidó was quickly recognised by the US, Canada, Brazil, Colombia and other US allies in the Americas, while the European Union said the voice of the people “cannot be ignored”.

Except in the UK.

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/nycsouthpaw/status/1088291391439032323

"I love FrostiesState of the Union speeches. They're "great"!

State of the Union? Run by Tony the Tiger. Fucked.

MarqueeMark said:

tlg86 said:

https://tinyurl.com/y8odjlvd

Guaidó was quickly recognised by the US, Canada, Brazil, Colombia and other US allies in the Americas, while the European Union said the voice of the people “cannot be ignored”.

Except in the UK.

It's Les Mis latino style

David_Evershed said:

HYUFD said:

Peston reports Local Government by election analysis by Harry Hayfield and internal Tory polling is forecasting a Labour+SNP+LD government in any imminent election with Labour on 254 the SNP 44 and the LDs on 27

In the 2017 local elections the Conservatives put up a strong performance followed a few weeks later by a poor Conservative performance in the general election.

Local election results do not convert to general election results so nor do polls.

Not quite true, in the 2017 local elections the Tories got 38% at the 2017 general election the Tories got 42% so the Tories actually did better at the general election than the local elections.

However in the local elections the LDs got 18% compared to 7% at the general election while Labour got 27% in the local elections compared to 40% at the general election so all that really happened from the local elections to the general election was some LD voters moved to Labour, there was little if any net Tory to Labour movement. That is much less likely to happen next time, especially if Corbyn has not committed to back EUref2.
Plus the calculations are based on all the local by elections over the last year not one set of local elections

HYUFD said:

justin124 said:

HYUFD said:

justin124 said:

GIN1138 said:

HYUFD said:

Matt Hancock just done an interview on Peston from Davos in -10 temperatures with no coat

And the health secretary is living it up on the tax payer with multi-billionaires in Davos because???

Actually based on current polls giving a maximum Labour lead of 3% and a maximum Tory lead of 5% they look very plausible given another hung parliament is very likely

No -those figures have the LibDems far too high - as is almost always true of Local Election data.

Even if they may be a bit too high there is still a strong possibility Labour would not only need SNP confidence and supply but LD confidence and supply too in order to have a working majority

I kinda feel there has to be a LD uptick sometime (maybe only lasting till March 30). For most English remainers, they’re the only show in town, and even if you think Vince ain’t great and tuition fees are bad, I can see a decent chunk of keen remainers lending their vote (or at least poll responses)

HYUFD said:

Peston reports Local Government by election analysis by Harry Hayfield and internal Tory polling is forecasting a Labour+SNP+LD government in any imminent election with Labour on 254 the SNP 44 and the LDs on 27

So no GE anytime soon.

logical_song said:

HYUFD said:

Peston reports Local Government by election analysis by Harry Hayfield and internal Tory polling is forecasting a Labour+SNP+LD government in any imminent election with Labour on 254 the SNP 44 and the LDs on 27

So no GE anytime soon.

Not unless May eventually gets her Deal through and the DUP back a VONC

Harris_Tweed said:

HYUFD said:

justin124 said:

HYUFD said:

justin124 said:

GIN1138 said:

HYUFD said:

Matt Hancock just done an interview on Peston from Davos in -10 temperatures with no coat

And the health secretary is living it up on the tax payer with multi-billionaires in Davos because???

Actually based on current polls giving a maximum Labour lead of 3% and a maximum Tory lead of 5% they look very plausible given another hung parliament is very likely

No -those figures have the LibDems far too high - as is almost always true of Local Election data.

Even if they may be a bit too high there is still a strong possibility Labour would not only need SNP confidence and supply but LD confidence and supply too in order to have a working majority

I kinda feel there has to be a LD uptick sometime (maybe only lasting till March 30). For most English remainers, they’re the only show in town, and even if you think Vince ain’t great and tuition fees are bad, I can see a decent chunk of keen remainers lending their vote (or at least poll responses)

The longer Corbyn holds out on backing EUref2 the greater the chances of a LD revival

Ireland prepares that hard border Varadkar said wouldnt happen

https://www.independent.ie/business/brexit/hundreds-of-garda-to-patrol-border-if-no-deal-37743980.html

Alanbrooke said:

Harris_Tweed said:

HYUFD said:

justin124 said:

HYUFD said:

justin124 said:

GIN1138 said:

HYUFD said:

Matt Hancock just done an interview on Peston from Davos in -10 temperatures with no coat

And the health secretary is living it up on the tax payer with multi-billionaires in Davos because???

Actually based on current polls giving a maximum Labour lead of 3% and a maximum Tory lead of 5% they look very plausible given another hung parliament is very likely

No -those figures have the LibDems far too high - as is almost always true of Local Election data.

Even if they may be a bit too high there is still a strong possibility Labour would not only need SNP confidence and supply but LD confidence and supply too in order to have a working majority

I kinda feel there has to be a LD uptick sometime (maybe only lasting till March 30). For most English remainers, they’re the only show in town, and even if you think Vince ain’t great and tuition fees are bad, I can see a decent chunk of keen remainers lending their vote (or at least poll responses)

Tuition fees ARE bad

Its a huge cock up which will hit twenty year olds twice. Once on the way in by extortionate fees and then later in life when the whole unfunded charade keels over and taxpayers have to pick up the bill. In twenty years time Willetts and Clegg will have retired while the same twenty year olds will have to pick up the tab for their folly.

Agreed.

They are, to an extent, also a mess owned by all parties. Labour decided that a self-confessed perjurer was clearly the right man to lead a review. The Conservatives, like idiots, promised to implement the proposals of this useless - I was going to say tosser, but he was lying to cover up the fact he wasn't, so that would have been silly.

But the Liberal Democrats were the only ones to break a 'cast iron' pledge on the subject. Which was the more baffling as blocking these stupid proposals would not only have been popular, and shown integrity, and been a clear win for them in coalition, but would have been economically and socially the right course of action too.

It is a real shame.

HYUFD said:

The problem with tuition fees is you pay £9000 a year whether you study economics or medicine at Oxbridge and go off to become an investment banker or surgeon or you study creative arts or sociology at Manchester Metropolitan or Brighton University and become an artist or a social worker.

Actually, that isn't correct and even if it was it isn't the real problem. The problem is the money has been spent but the loans will not be repaid. I'd be amazed if we ever see 40% of it. That's why, leaving aside any question of principle, it's a bad system.

The barefaced venality of the Buccaneering Brexiteers is truly a thing of wonder. They really do sock it to the elite.
https://twitter.com/PippaCrerar/status/1088131959589617666

HYUFD said:

If Biden wins the nomination it will be via centrist and blue collar voters anyway and by winning in the South, Pennsylvania and the Midwest, left liberals in the party will vote for Sanders or Warren while Harris will have more appeal to the coastal states

Generally Democratic primary voters aren't keen on Republicans, that's not particularly a coastal liberal thing. And shady-sounding speaking fees were one of the things that did for Hillary in the Midwest.

Alanbrooke said:

Latest poll for Europeans France

LaREM -23.5 - Macron
RN - 20.5 - Le Pen
Republicains - 11 - Wauqiez ( Sarkozys lot )
LFI - 9.5 - Melenchon
EELV - 9 - Greens
PS - 6 - Socialists

Lots of small others and undecided make the balance

So in the French 2 round system it is Macron vs Le Pen, with a Macron landslide again.

Foxy said:

ydoethur said:

HYUFD said:

The problem with tuition fees is you pay £9000 a year whether you study economics or medicine at Oxbridge and go off to become an investment banker or surgeon or you study creative arts or sociology at Manchester Metropolitan or Brighton University and become an artist or a social worker.

Actually, that isn't correct and even if it was it isn't the real problem. The problem is the money has been spent but the loans will not be repaid. I'd be amazed if we ever see 40% of it. That's why, leaving aside any question of principle, it's a bad system.

Though it is far more likely that Oxbridge and Medical graduates will repay in full, while graduates of Neasden University do not. Peversely the system subsidises bad courses.

I think there are three professions where full repayment is guaranteed - law, medicine and banking. The rest, it's a lottery and that applies regardless of university. Most teachers and certainly most female teachers will not. That said the graduates of lower ranked universities tend not to pay the full whack anyway.

Have a good morning.

Harris_Tweed said:

HYUFD said:

justin124 said:

HYUFD said:

justin124 said:

GIN1138 said:

HYUFD said:

Matt Hancock just done an interview on Peston from Davos in -10 temperatures with no coat

And the health secretary is living it up on the tax payer with multi-billionaires in Davos because???

Actually based on current polls giving a maximum Labour lead of 3% and a maximum Tory lead of 5% they look very plausible given another hung parliament is very likely

No -those figures have the LibDems far too high - as is almost always true of Local Election data.

Even if they may be a bit too high there is still a strong possibility Labour would not only need SNP confidence and supply but LD confidence and supply too in order to have a working majority

I kinda feel there has to be a LD uptick sometime (maybe only lasting till March 30). For most English remainers, they’re the only show in town, and even if you think Vince ain’t great and tuition fees are bad, I can see a decent chunk of keen remainers lending their vote (or at least poll responses)

In 2017 the lib Dems lost 10% of their vote in Scotland but gained seats.

They should cross their fingers that the gods of tactical voting smile on them nationwide.

not_on_fire said:

Foxy said:

ydoethur said:

HYUFD said:

The problem with tuition fees is you pay £9000 a year whether you study economics or medicine at Oxbridge and go off to become an investment banker or surgeon or you study creative arts or sociology at Manchester Metropolitan or Brighton University and become an artist or a social worker.

Actually, that isn't correct and even if it was it isn't the real problem. The problem is the money has been spent but the loans will not be repaid. I'd be amazed if we ever see 40% of it. That's why, leaving aside any question of principle, it's a bad system.

Though it is far more likely that Oxbridge and Medical graduates will repay in full, while graduates of Neasden University do not. Peversely the system subsidises bad courses.

The way to look at it is a “no win,no fee” arrangement. If you are successful post-University you will pay back a fair bit but if you just achieve mediocrity then the payments are modest.

The ones who are really screwed by the current system are those who make £50k or thereabouts - a reasonably large contributor (about £250 a month) but no hope of paying off the loan.

Yes, the LibDems pushed hard on the detail and got something that actually works closer to a graduate tax rather than a loan scheme, but made the fatal mistake of allowing the Tories to retain the way it is described and presented.

ydoethur said:

Foxy said:

ydoethur said:

HYUFD said:

The problem with tuition fees is you pay £9000 a year whether you study economics or medicine at Oxbridge and go off to become an investment banker or surgeon or you study creative arts or sociology at Manchester Metropolitan or Brighton University and become an artist or a social worker.

Actually, that isn't correct and even if it was it isn't the real problem. The problem is the money has been spent but the loans will not be repaid. I'd be amazed if we ever see 40% of it. That's why, leaving aside any question of principle, it's a bad system.

Though it is far more likely that Oxbridge and Medical graduates will repay in full, while graduates of Neasden University do not. Peversely the system subsidises bad courses.

I think there are three professions where full repayment is guaranteed - law, medicine and banking. The rest, it's a lottery and that applies regardless of university. Most teachers and certainly most female teachers will not. That said the graduates of lower ranked universities tend not to pay the full whack anyway.

Have a good morning.

Medicine and banking maybe but legal aid lawyers do not earn much more than average unless they are QCs, not all lawyers do commercial law or work for big City firms

edmundintokyo said:

HYUFD said:

If Biden wins the nomination it will be via centrist and blue collar voters anyway and by winning in the South, Pennsylvania and the Midwest, left liberals in the party will vote for Sanders or Warren while Harris will have more appeal to the coastal states

Generally Democratic primary voters aren't keen on Republicans, that's not particularly a coastal liberal thing. And shady-sounding speaking fees were one of the things that did for Hillary in the Midwest.

Democrats tend to be more conservative and moderate in the South and Midwest though

Foxy said:

edmundintokyo said:

OT National Review has ALL THE DIRT on KLOBUCHAR
https://www.nationalreview.com/2019/01/twenty-things-you-probably-didnt-know-about-amy-klobuchar/

I defy anyone to find anyone with dirt this clean.

She does seem weirdly normal for a politician, and reassuringly middle class middle America. That all important weird name factor too.

KLOBUCHAR is so normal it would be hard for Trump to make any shit stick on her. Maybe America will be ready for normal next year.

Alanbrooke said:

HYUFD said:

Alanbrooke said:

Harris_Tweed said:

HYUFD said:

justin124 said:

HYUFD said:

justin124 said:

GIN1138 said:

HYUFD said:

Matt Hancock just done an interview on Peston from Davos in -10 temperatures with no coat

And the health secretary is living it up on the tax payer with multi-billionaires in Davos because???

Actually based on current polls giving a maximum Labour lead of 3% and a maximum Tory lead of 5% they look very plausible given another hung parliament is very likely

No -those figures have the LibDems far too high - as is almost always true of Local Election data.

Even if they may be a bit too high there is still a strong possibility Labour would not only need SNP confidence and supply but LD confidence and supply too in order to have a working majority

I kinda feel there has to be a LD uptick sometime (maybe only lasting till March 30). For most English remainers, they’re the only show in town, and even if you think Vince ain’t great and tuition fees are bad, I can see a decent chunk of keen remainers lending their vote (or at least poll responses)

Tuition fees ARE bad

Its a huge cock up which will hit twenty year olds twice. Once on the way in by extortionate fees and then later in life when the whole unfunded charade keels over and taxpayers have to pick up the bill. In twenty years time Willetts and Clegg will have retired while the same twenty year olds will have to pick up the tab for their folly.

The problem with tuition fees is you pay £9000 a year whether you study economics or medicine at Oxbridge and go off to become an investment banker or surgeon or you study creative arts or sociology at Manchester Metropolitan or Brighton University and become an artist or a social worker.

In the US fees are more closely linked to the prestige of the college and the earnings provided by the course. Thankfully the Government is looking to change things

The US has a bigger problem than we have

US fees at the Ivy league are even higher than Oxbridge but the highest fees do tend to go to courses with the highest graduate earnings premium

not_on_fire said:

https://twitter.com/geofftech/status/1088175785456951301?s=21

Who could gave foreseen a few years ago that vacuum cleaners would feature in political propaganda? We are blessed to live in such times.

AndyJS said:

HYUFD said:

AndyJS said:

HYUFD said:

Peston reports Local Government by election analysis by Harry Hayfield and internal Tory polling is forecasting a Labour+SNP+LD government in any imminent election with Labour on 254 the SNP 44 and the LDs on 27

Interesting, that would involve Labour losing about 8 seats.

Mainly to the LDs by the looks of things

SNP are up as well. Maybe they're taking seats off both Labour and the Tories.

The SNP should consider putting up candidates in England and Wales.

TheJezziah said:

IanB2 said:

Airbus has branded the UK government’s handling of Brexit a “disgrace” and warned the aerospace firm could pull out of the UK if the country crashes out of the EU without a deal.
In a video message released on Thursday, Tom Enders, the chief executive, warned that if there was a no-deal Brexit, Airbus would have to make “potentially very harmful decisions for the UK”.

He added: “Please don’t listen to the Brexiteers’ madness which asserts that because have huge plants here we will not move and we will always be here. They are wrong.”

Not that I don't appreciate the warning in advance now but I'm curious if he managed to make any statements in favour of Ed in GE'15 who didn't want a referendum or Corbyn in GE'17 who didn't want no deal?

Businesses speaking up now have surely waited too long, any chance they have to turn public opinion is limited. They can pressure politicians but that doesn't require talking in public.

I just wonder if they are talking in public out of desperation/hope or they have been asked too by politicians they are speaking too.

Or simply that big business is starting to question the value of the firm promise they were made by government that we would never leave without a deal?

Mr. Meeks, even if there were, he'd likely end up the same way career-wise.

HYUFD said:

ydoethur said:

HYUFD said:

The problem with tuition fees is you pay £9000 a year whether you study economics or medicine at Oxbridge and go off to become an investment banker or surgeon or you study creative arts or sociology at Manchester Metropolitan or Brighton University and become an artist or a social worker.

Actually, that isn't correct and even if it was it isn't the real problem. The problem is the money has been spent but the loans will not be repaid. I'd be amazed if we ever see 40% of it. That's why, leaving aside any question of principle, it's a bad system.

If fees were much lower than now for courses and universities with a lower graduate earnings premium actually loans would be more likely to be repaid

One problem with that is that crudely checking what graduates earn and crediting the course with that sum, which is what seems to be proposed over this and the last thread, is ludicrous and calculated to favour Oxbridge and Russell Group.

I mean it’s an interesting argument - the people voted to Leave, Parliament seems to be dragging its feet, so close down Parliament and the people’s will will be enacted.

Foxy said:

Alanbrooke said:

Latest poll for Europeans France

LaREM -23.5 - Macron
RN - 20.5 - Le Pen
Republicains - 11 - Wauqiez ( Sarkozys lot )
LFI - 9.5 - Melenchon
EELV - 9 - Greens
PS - 6 - Socialists

Lots of small others and undecided make the balance

So in the French 2 round system it is Macron vs Le Pen, with a Macron landslide again.

Yup. Macca sitting pretty despite the wishful thinking of the Francophobe obsessives on here.