politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » With “cabinet resignations” in the air who is going to be firs

Anyone who says first or second or any ordinal indicator eats poo

Ladbrokes have a lot of high profile employees.

_Anazina_ said:

Anyone who says first or second or any ordinal indicator eats poo

Ordinal numbers, cardinal sins?

Given the dead heat rules is anyone worth betting on.

I can imagine anything from 1-8 of them going and were Mrs May to leave a few hours later everything becomes a dead heat. And there isn't time for a drip-drip-drip approach with someone resigning every day.

It is deeply depressing how few of those names would even be missed. It would be even more depressing if the tiny amount of momentum May has gained in the last few days (mad Nad was a bit of a surprise) was dissipated in this way.

Steady the buffs, Amber, your country needs you.

https://twitter.com/garygibbonblog/status/1087653313406009344?s=21

Sandpit said:

If whoever is next to go does so because of a policy argument, rather than a scandal, then it's going to depend on whether Mrs May goes for the 'harder' or 'softer' option on Brexit.

If she goes for no deal, then Amber et al will resign, if she goes for a softer negotiation (SM/CU etc) then it could be Penny et al instead.

Didn't the manifesto rule out SM/CU?

Anyone holding the Tory whip should be opposing that.

edmundintokyo said:

FPT

Big_G_NorthWales said:

As ever with labour their commitment to a second referendum is a fudge. They want to negotiate a better deal first and then put it to a referendum.

That's their general election positioning. Worked for David Cameron.

For the sake of accuracy this was my full post

As ever with labour their commitment to a second referendum is a fudge. They want to negotiate a better deal first and then put it to a referendum. However, Sky reporting that no one is sure Corbyn would vote for it or whip it and in addition several of the shadow front bench would resign and 30 plus labour mps would vote against.

'nothing has changed'

Sandpit said:

If she goes for no deal, then Amber et al will resign, if she goes for a softer negotiation (SM/CU etc) then it could be Penny et al instead.

That's like the Iran-Iraq war or Man Utd vs Chelsea. It's a shame they both can't lose.

Dura_Ace said:

Sandpit said:

If she goes for no deal, then Amber et al will resign, if she goes for a softer negotiation (SM/CU etc) then it could be Penny et al instead.

That's like the Iran-Iraq war or Man Utd vs Chelsea. It's a shame they both can't lose.

LOL!

Sandpit said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Sandpit said:

If whoever is next to go does so because of a policy argument, rather than a scandal, then it's going to depend on whether Mrs May goes for the 'harder' or 'softer' option on Brexit.

If she goes for no deal, then Amber et al will resign, if she goes for a softer negotiation (SM/CU etc) then it could be Penny et al instead.

Didn't the manifesto rule out SM/CU?

Anyone holding the Tory whip should be opposing that.

Yes, and yes they should.

But then Dominic Grieve still somehow holds the Tory whip, I think with almost any other Parliamentary arithmetic he'd have been suspended by the party before now.

That and Cameron's constitutional vandalism of the FTPA that removed the four line whip.

How different would this ratification process be if May could make a vote a confidence vote like Major did to force his bastards into line over Maastricht. Modern day bastards like Grieve don't face that.

Philip_Thompson said:

Sandpit said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Sandpit said:

If whoever is next to go does so because of a policy argument, rather than a scandal, then it's going to depend on whether Mrs May goes for the 'harder' or 'softer' option on Brexit.

If she goes for no deal, then Amber et al will resign, if she goes for a softer negotiation (SM/CU etc) then it could be Penny et al instead.

Didn't the manifesto rule out SM/CU?

Anyone holding the Tory whip should be opposing that.

Yes, and yes they should.

But then Dominic Grieve still somehow holds the Tory whip, I think with almost any other Parliamentary arithmetic he'd have been suspended by the party before now.

That and Cameron's constitutional vandalism of the FTPA that removed the four line whip.

How different would this ratification process be if May could make a vote a confidence vote like Major did to force his bastards into line over Maastricht. Modern day bastards like Grieve don't face that.

Indeed. This past few weeks would have gone down very differently without the FTPA and the 'four line whip' it removed.

It's inadvertently created a situation with a completely hung Parliament and small splits in both main parties, whereby nothing substantial can be passed yet the government doesn't lose a vote of confidence.

felix said:

I reluctantly support the Cooper amendment now. The madness needs to stop and my party needs to reform. 1846 redux !

Cooper's amendment doesn't stop the madness it drags it on until NYE.

Philip_Thompson said:

That and Cameron's constitutional vandalism of the FTPA that removed the four line whip.

How different would this ratification process be if May could make a vote a confidence vote like Major did to force his bastards into line over Maastricht. Modern day bastards like Grieve don't face that.

TMay wouldn't have called the vote, because the DUP would have voted against her.

Have I ever mentioned that I once tipped and won Amber Rudd as next out of the cabinet at 33/1?

Seems only like last year.

OldKingCole said:

Sandpit said:

Sad news from Cardiff FC. French police confirm that their new signing Emiliano Sala was on board light aircraft missing since last night in the English Channel just off Brittany. Search underway again, having being called off for bad weather in the early hours.
https://twitter.com/Sport_Witness/status/1087635184260923392

Some nasty rocks around Alderney, too. Flying into the airport can be a bit hairy.

Indeed so, here's hoping for a good outcome, but as hours pass that looks increasingly unlikely.

Sadly, sounds like another case of what's known in aviation as getthereitis (get-there-itis), where a seemingly overpowering need to complete the planned flight overrides sensible decision making in changing conditions.

Also stand by for Premier League clubs (more specifically their insurers) to ban players from travelling in single engined planes.

SouthamObserver said:

kinabalu said:

Hunt is big at 25s. I can see him flouncing out of cabinet if he thinks it in the national interest.

Hunt is like all the other Tory leadership contenders. He is guided entirely by what he believes is best for himself.

Nonsense.

He was an awesome Health Secretary and secured record funding for the NHS.

At the Foreign Office he’s done brilliantly, such as bringing home that chap from Dubai I think.

He’s Prime Minister in waiting.

DavidL said:

I think any hashtag is pretty superfluous: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-46958560

Yet another record high for employment in the UK.

That's a pretty awesome employment graph.

Sandpit said:

DavidL said:

I think any hashtag is pretty superfluous: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-46958560

Yet another record high for employment in the UK.

That's a pretty awesome employment graph.

George Osborne’s golden economic legacy.

https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1087656089590603776

SouthamObserver said:

Hunt is like all the other Tory leadership contenders. He is guided entirely by what he believes is best for himself.

The required contortion, albeit quite a tortured one, is ...

"I am easily the best choice to lead our great nation and our great nation deserves the best. Therefore I must, in the national interest, do everything I possibly can, use every trick in the book, dirty or otherwise, to maximize my chances of landing the job, even if some of what I do to further my cause would appear to the unwary to be against the national interest."

You have to somehow make yourself believe that. Boris Johnson clearly doesn't, for example, hence he looks like what he is - a chancer.

The more dangerous types are chancers who appear to be something more than that. I would put the Sajid into this category.

And then of course, since I am not a hopeless cynic, there are some good eggs - e.g. Hammond and Gove.

_Anazina_ said:

Anyone who says first or second or any ordinal indicator eats poo

Is +1 an ordinal indicator?

Sandpit said:

Sadly, sounds like another case of what's known in aviation as getthereitis (get-there-itis), where a seemingly overpowering need to complete the planned flight overrides sensible decision making in changing conditions.

I flew out of Tokyo a couple of weeks after the Fukushima accident, the Austrian pilot was walking down the queue harassing the guys responsible for counting everybody's geigers before they were allowed on the plane, then he finally got the all-clear and started bombing it around the taxiways. I thought he was going to roll the plane over.

Sandpit said:

Sad news from Cardiff FC. French police confirm that their new signing Emiliano Sala was on board light aircraft missing since last night in the English Channel just off Brittany. Search underway again, having being called off for bad weather in the early hours.
https://twitter.com/Sport_Witness/status/1087635184260923392

Would they have insurance on the fee?

I could see an argument about it if he never turned up for work

(Too soon?)

kinabalu said:

Hunt is big at 25s. I can see him flouncing out of cabinet if he thinks it in the national his own interest.

Fixed for ya

DavidL said:

Sandpit said:

DavidL said:

I think any hashtag is pretty superfluous: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-46958560

Yet another record high for employment in the UK.

That's a pretty awesome employment graph.

It's a bit odd. The graph really doesn't seem to show the loss of 500k jobs after the decision to vote leave at all. It's almost as if it made no difference whatsoever.

I must say, I'm surprised as well.

On topic, what is the legal status of Yvette Cooper's proposed amendment? Does it actually do what she wants it to do (stopping a No Deal Brexit?)

DavidL said:

williamglenn said:

https://twitter.com/garygibbonblog/status/1087653313406009344?s=21

Have they got beer and sandwiches at the ready?

On his salary and pension I would think it more likely to be champagne and caviar.

On topic: If you follow Mike's logic, then surely the outstanding bet here is Greg Clark at 20/1. There is absolutely no way that he would be content with us drifting into No Deal. In the event of a walk-out by the sensible wing of the cabinet, he'd be one of those (along with Amber Rudd, David Gauke and Phil Hammond) doing the walking.

Sandpit said:

OldKingCole said:

Sandpit said:

OldKingCole said:

Sandpit said:

Sad news from Cardiff FC. French police confirm that their new signing Emiliano Sala was on board light aircraft missing since last night in the English Channel just off Brittany. Search underway again, having being called off for bad weather in the early hours.
https://twitter.com/Sport_Witness/status/1087635184260923392

Some nasty rocks around Alderney, too. Flying into the airport can be a bit hairy.

Indeed so, here's hoping for a good outcome, but as hours pass that looks increasingly unlikely.

Sadly, sounds like another case of what's known in aviation as getthereitis (get-there-itis), where a seemingly overpowering need to complete the planned flight overrides sensible decision making in changing conditions.

Also stand by for Premier League clubs (more specifically their insurers) to ban players from travelling in single engined planes.

I once flew into Alderney in a small gap in the then prevailing fog. We were in an four-seater air-taxi; the pilot more or less shoved us out and took off as soon as we were clear of the wings in his haste to get back to Guernsey.

Yep, happens all the time in the light charter market and executive travel. 99% of the time it's okay, but occasionally it goes wrong and the weather gods win.

It was my mothers funeral, I was very anxious to get there and we'd been waiting at Southampton for four hours. The weather gods sense of irony ensured that the service plane from Southampton the Alderney got in about an hour later with the rest of my family.
The fog then closed in properly and we were all stuck on Alderney for two days.
Alderney's a b*&^%r for that in winter.

Richard_Nabavi said:

On topic: If you follow Mike's logic, then surely the outstanding bet here is Greg Clark at 20/1. There is absolutely no way that he would be content with us drifting into No Deal. In the event of a walk-out by the sensible wing of the cabinet, he'd be one of those (along with Amber Rudd, David Gauke and Phil Hammond) doing the walking.

Could a PM really carry on after half her cabinet head resigned? I know May's stubborn, but......

eek said:

Charles said:

Sandpit said:

Sad news from Cardiff FC. French police confirm that their new signing Emiliano Sala was on board light aircraft missing since last night in the English Channel just off Brittany. Search underway again, having being called off for bad weather in the early hours.
https://twitter.com/Sport_Witness/status/1087635184260923392

Would they have insurance on the fee?

I could see an argument about it if he never turned up for work

(Too soon?)

I thought the exact same thing when I heard the story - it's an awkward question which I'm sure TSE will avoid answering.

Doesn't that amount to life insurance on the life of another person (not being your spouse or civil partner)?

Richard_Nabavi said:

On topic: If you follow Mike's logic, then surely the outstanding bet here is Greg Clark at 20/1. There is absolutely no way that he would be content with us drifting into No Deal. In the event of a walk-out by the sensible wing of the cabinet, he'd be one of those (along with Amber Rudd, David Gauke and Phil Hammond) doing the walking.

But you are rapidly into very low odds dead heat rules.

Sean_F said:

DavidL said:

Sandpit said:

DavidL said:

I think any hashtag is pretty superfluous: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-46958560

Yet another record high for employment in the UK.

That's a pretty awesome employment graph.

It's a bit odd. The graph really doesn't seem to show the loss of 500k jobs after the decision to vote leave at all. It's almost as if it made no difference whatsoever.

I must say, I'm surprised as well.

On topic, what is the legal status of Yvette Cooper's proposed amendment? Does it actually do what she wants it to do (stopping a No Deal Brexit?)

It intends amending A50 to stop a no deal by extending the period to 31st December if a deal is not agreed by late february

The obvious problem with it is getting the EU to agree for us to continue in deadlock beyond their elections resulting in UK MEPs being sent to the Commssion. Also I can hear the groans from the populace across the UK by kicking the can further than even TM has.

Dominic Grieve said that if any amendment passes, the government could ignore it but that could result in a GE or other parliamentary procedures effectively to paralyse the government

Nigel_Foremain said:

DavidL said:

Sandpit said:

DavidL said:

I think any hashtag is pretty superfluous: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-46958560

Yet another record high for employment in the UK.

That's a pretty awesome employment graph.

It's a bit odd. The graph really doesn't seem to show the loss of 500k jobs after the decision to vote leave at all. It's almost as if it made no difference whatsoever.

Er, have you not noticed....we haven't left yet

LOL

eek said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

On topic: If you follow Mike's logic, then surely the outstanding bet here is Greg Clark at 20/1. There is absolutely no way that he would be content with us drifting into No Deal. In the event of a walk-out by the sensible wing of the cabinet, he'd be one of those (along with Amber Rudd, David Gauke and Phil Hammond) doing the walking.

But you are rapidly into very low odds dead heat rules.

Sure, but also with an increased chance of collecting.

OldKingCole said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

On topic: If you follow Mike's logic, then surely the outstanding bet here is Greg Clark at 20/1. There is absolutely no way that he would be content with us drifting into No Deal. In the event of a walk-out by the sensible wing of the cabinet, he'd be one of those (along with Amber Rudd, David Gauke and Phil Hammond) doing the walking.

Could a PM really carry on after half her cabinet head resigned? I know May's stubborn, but......

It hasn't stopped Corbyn finding some numpties to fill most of the shadow positions

TheWhiteRabbit said:

eek said:

Charles said:

Sandpit said:

Sad news from Cardiff FC. French police confirm that their new signing Emiliano Sala was on board light aircraft missing since last night in the English Channel just off Brittany. Search underway again, having being called off for bad weather in the early hours.
https://twitter.com/Sport_Witness/status/1087635184260923392

Would they have insurance on the fee?

I could see an argument about it if he never turned up for work

(Too soon?)

I thought the exact same thing when I heard the story - it's an awkward question which I'm sure TSE will avoid answering.

Doesn't that amount to life insurance on the life of another person (not being your spouse or civil partner)?

Have Nantes breached their contract by not delivering the player in acceptable health?

Nigel_Foremain said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Nigel_Foremain said:

Spent a large amount of time yesterday in the car and had the dubious privilege to listen to Nadine Dorries on R4. How the heck did someone so thick get into parliament? She makes Corbyn sound like an intellectual colossus, and that is saying something. With people like her in the legislature it is little surprise we are where we are

Marc Francois is even worse

I don't think I have had the pleasure of hearing him speak. If he is even worse than Nadine I am actually looking forward to it. I have often been accused of being prejudiced for calling members of the ERG stupid, but Nadine certainly didn't disabuse me of my strongly held belief that they really are very thick indeed.

I can really recommend Francois as topping Nadine in those stakes

We must surely be getting near to the point where there are more MPs who have been on the government payroll and have resigned than there are MPs left to fill any vacancies, whether in Cabinet or elsewhere.

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Nigel_Foremain said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Nigel_Foremain said:

Spent a large amount of time yesterday in the car and had the dubious privilege to listen to Nadine Dorries on R4. How the heck did someone so thick get into parliament? She makes Corbyn sound like an intellectual colossus, and that is saying something. With people like her in the legislature it is little surprise we are where we are

Marc Francois is even worse

I don't think I have had the pleasure of hearing him speak. If he is even worse than Nadine I am actually looking forward to it. I have often been accused of being prejudiced for calling members of the ERG stupid, but Nadine certainly didn't disabuse me of my strongly held belief that they really are very thick indeed.

I can really recommend Francois as topping Nadine in those stakes

But nothing beats Bridgen!

OldKingCole said:

Sandpit said:

OldKingCole said:

Sandpit said:

OldKingCole said:

Sandpit said:

Sad news from Cardiff FC. French police confirm that their new signing Emiliano Sala was on board light aircraft missing since last night in the English Channel just off Brittany. Search underway again, having being called off for bad weather in the early hours.
https://twitter.com/Sport_Witness/status/1087635184260923392

Some nasty rocks around Alderney, too. Flying into the airport can be a bit hairy.

Indeed so, here's hoping for a good outcome, but as hours pass that looks increasingly unlikely.

Sadly, sounds like another case of what's known in aviation as getthereitis (get-there-itis), where a seemingly overpowering need to complete the planned flight overrides sensible decision making in changing conditions.

Also stand by for Premier League clubs (more specifically their insurers) to ban players from travelling in single engined planes.

I once flew into Alderney in a small gap in the then prevailing fog. We were in an four-seater air-taxi; the pilot more or less shoved us out and took off as soon as we were clear of the wings in his haste to get back to Guernsey.

Yep, happens all the time in the light charter market and executive travel. 99% of the time it's okay, but occasionally it goes wrong and the weather gods win.

It was my mothers funeral, I was very anxious to get there and we'd been waiting at Southampton for four hours. The weather gods sense of irony ensured that the service plane from Southampton the Alderney got in about an hour later with the rest of my family.
The fog then closed in properly and we were all stuck on Alderney for two days.
Alderney's a b*&^%r for that in winter.

Is it not possible to catch the boat there?

Nigel_Foremain said:

DavidL said:

williamglenn said:

https://twitter.com/garygibbonblog/status/1087653313406009344?s=21

Have they got beer and sandwiches at the ready?

On his salary and pension I would think it more likely to be champagne and caviar.

I earn decent money but still much prefer proper beer to champagne (most of the time)

Sean_F said:

DavidL said:

Sandpit said:

DavidL said:

I think any hashtag is pretty superfluous: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-46958560

Yet another record high for employment in the UK.

That's a pretty awesome employment graph.

It's a bit odd. The graph really doesn't seem to show the loss of 500k jobs after the decision to vote leave at all. It's almost as if it made no difference whatsoever.

I must say, I'm surprised as well.

On topic, what is the legal status of Yvette Cooper's proposed amendment? Does it actually do what she wants it to do (stopping a No Deal Brexit?)

I think it could work, but not in isolation. Her amendment requires the government to give time to her bill which would change the law and require the government to seek a continuation of the article 50 process if a deal is not reached by a certain date. That bill would have to pass as well. Of course it cannot require the EU to agree to that extension and how a government is supposed to persuade them when it doesn't want an extension is also not entirely clear. I think at a minimum the government would also be required to undertake further steps such as a second referendum with remain as an option. If that is not on the table and binding on the government I think the EU would say no. I think she has addressed this but my guess is that yet more legislation would be required to get such a referendum up and running beyond her bill.

What it does show is that she (or just maybe her husband) have thought through the steps required to undo the structure which has made a no deal Brexit the default. It would not be easy.

Cyclefree said:

We must surely be getting near to the point where there are more MPs who have been on the government payroll and have resigned than there are MPs left to fill any vacancies, whether in Cabinet or elsewhere.

Indeed. If you are looking to promote a backbencher who has not resigned, been sacked, AND voted for the WA, the choices will be limited, to say the least

OldKingCole said:

I once flew into Alderney in a small gap in the then prevailing fog. We were in an four-seater air-taxi; the pilot more or less shoved us out and took off as soon as we were clear of the wings in his haste to get back to Guernsey.

When flying an approach to the carrier in the Sea Harrier we had to dump fuel to get down to hover weight of 800lb. The mighty Shar could only dump down to 2,200lbs (AFAICR) and we generally flew it at 60lbs/minute This meant in an instrument guided or "case 3" approach in poor visibility this lucky naval aviator would be flying through all manner of shit weather discarding precious fuel well before I had a visual on the carrier. My hopes avoiding a ride on the ejection seat and subsequent lengthy swim was entirely in the hands of the AD 2770 TACAN (which had be designed and constructed with no great skill by BAe Systems). It's amazing we aren't all dead.

Cyclefree said:

We must surely be getting near to the point where there are more MPs who have been on the government payroll and have resigned than there are MPs left to fill any vacancies, whether in Cabinet or elsewhere.

Someone posted a chart of backbenchers on here yesterday, highlighting those who had resigned, had voted against the Brexit deal or who had been embroiled in scandal. There's only a couple of dozen or so 'clean' backbenchers.

houndtang said:

If they are going to cancel Brexit - and they are - I wish they'd just get on with it.

I don't share your optimism

Re @AlistairMeeks’s request re bitcoin and blockchain (fpt):-

Paul Donovan, the former Chief Economist of UBS has written quite a lot about bitcoin. He is convinced it is a bubble and there have certainly been a few scandals around it. Quite a lot of people who invest in it don’t understand it, always a very bad sign.

Blockchain is different. It is, in essence, a way of storing payment and ownership information (very simplistically put) and has the potential for being useful and possibly disruptive in the way that new technologies can be. A very good friend of mine is an expert in this area and does a lot of work with various institutions on how it can be used. But a lot about it is oversold and many who sing its praises don’t really understand it.

So I would proceed with caution unless you can really understand it. My general view is that there is nothing in this world so complicated that someone who understands it can’t explain it simply. And if they can’t, one of two things is usually happening: they’re either trying to pull the wool over your eyes or they don’t understand it themselves.

AlastairMeeks said:

eek said:

The EU are getting fed up

https://twitter.com/nick_gutteridge/status/1087670575630336000

That's all well and good but this is a mess that they have helped make. I have little patience with their passive-aggressive defensiveness.

They could equally just be getting fed up being asked questions when it's outside their control...