politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » After the likely failure of today’s confidence vote then what?
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O'Mara?Pulpstar said:
https://hansard.parliament.uk/Commons/2017-06-29/division/529E63FC-2CE0-40C8-831C-38FFB4C65FDE/EconomyAndJobs?outputType=Party = 257 LabourMikeL said:
Correct. But I personally don't believe they will vote - indeed I would be astounded if they vote.paulyork64 said:
If the deputy speakers are voting I think it edges the likely total up to 311 in my opinion.MikeL said:Is Flynn definitely too ill to attend?
If so, and if Govt gets Lady Hermon, then the Betfair favourite must lose (unless any Con/DUP vote against Govt).
Winterton, Hoyle + 2 tellers = 261.
262 Labour were elected. Who is the missing link ?!0 -
Yes.david_herdson said:
Even though precedent seems to be that they did in 1979, and that they stood as party MPs?MikeL said:
Correct. But I personally don't believe they will vote - indeed I would be astounded if they vote.paulyork64 said:
If the deputy speakers are voting I think it edges the likely total up to 311 in my opinion.MikeL said:Is Flynn definitely too ill to attend?
If so, and if Govt gets Lady Hermon, then the Betfair favourite must lose (unless any Con/DUP vote against Govt).
It's 311-324 if Govt just gets DUP.
If they get Hermon it's 310-325.
If get Hermon and Flynn isn't there it's then 309-325.
The whole point is the four Speakers are always split 2-2 so they cancel out so it doesn't matter which Party supplies the (Main) Speaker.
Which is why the BBC count Bercow as Con on election night - because he effectively is Con - because Lab must supply two of the three Deputy Speakers.
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No, not him.Anorak said:
O'Mara?Pulpstar said:
https://hansard.parliament.uk/Commons/2017-06-29/division/529E63FC-2CE0-40C8-831C-38FFB4C65FDE/EconomyAndJobs?outputType=Party = 257 LabourMikeL said:
Correct. But I personally don't believe they will vote - indeed I would be astounded if they vote.paulyork64 said:
If the deputy speakers are voting I think it edges the likely total up to 311 in my opinion.MikeL said:Is Flynn definitely too ill to attend?
If so, and if Govt gets Lady Hermon, then the Betfair favourite must lose (unless any Con/DUP vote against Govt).
Winterton, Hoyle + 2 tellers = 261.
262 Labour were elected. Who is the missing link ?!0 -
My brother was very nearly born in the House of LordsJohnLilburne said:
Having a baby on the floor of the House of Commons, or in the No lobby, would certainly be historicRecidivist said:
Well she might also have wanted to be involved in something so historic. And remember that the Tories have been breaking pairing arrangements lately.Sean_F said:
She wanted to vote in person, so that all could view her martyrdom.Scrapheap_as_was said:Corbyn makes big attack on Tories forcing heavily pregnant Tulipp to come to vote yesterday..... Soubry raises point of order to ask if a pair was offered.... Bercow confirms it was ....
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TM destroying Corbyn in an amazing personal attack0
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Semolina ad infinitum sounds like my idea of hell, or possibly, a very bad piece of choral music, either of which I would happily wish on Jacob Rees Mogg and his merry band of swivel-eyed thickosChris said:
Just desserts? What does that mean? Endless Eccles cakes? Semolina ad infinitum? Unlimited rice pudding?DavidL said:
Yes. If only to give those morons in the ERG their just desserts.Freggles said:Can we just have customs union and workers rights alignment written into the WA and be done with it now?
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The trick is to cut off both wings and coalesce around a Powell-Halfon Common Market 2.0 solution – a Tyndallite solution you might call it!Pulpstar said:
They're both as bad as each other.Richard_Nabavi said:
Yes, and if anything last night's vote made the polarisation worse. The fact that both the ERG and the ultra-remainers/people's-voters were jubilant at the result means that both extremes think they are winning - so why would either side compromise?Big_G_NorthWales said:The reasons the same question are being asked and same responses are given shows how polarised the mps are.
TM is not going to suddenly move to a CU or anything else until she is able to consider how to move forward. It is clear that she is seeking to retain ERG and DUP support but hopefully to find a compromise on her deal, but it is clear she is anti a second referendum.
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They were engaged by the government of the day to provide forecasts of possible Brexit scenarios. So sort of, yes.Alanbrooke said:were they the government of the day ?
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So the reaching out to other parties didn't last long then.Big_G_NorthWales said:TM destroying Corbyn in an amazing personal attack
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Field?Pulpstar said:
No, not him.Anorak said:
O'Mara?Pulpstar said:https://hansard.parliament.uk/Commons/2017-06-29/division/529E63FC-2CE0-40C8-831C-38FFB4C65FDE/EconomyAndJobs?outputType=Party = 257 Labour
Winterton, Hoyle + 2 tellers = 261.
262 Labour were elected. Who is the missing link ?!0 -
Again talking unacceptable violence. When will they learneek said:0 -
Let us hope so. it is not as good as we currently have, but not as bad as the nutters would wish, therefore a good compromiseAnazina said:
The trick is to cut off both wings and coalesce around a Powell-Halfon Common Market 2.0 solution – a Tyndallite solution you might call it!Pulpstar said:
They're both as bad as each other.Richard_Nabavi said:
Yes, and if anything last night's vote made the polarisation worse. The fact that both the ERG and the ultra-remainers/people's-voters were jubilant at the result means that both extremes think they are winning - so why would either side compromise?Big_G_NorthWales said:The reasons the same question are being asked and same responses are given shows how polarised the mps are.
TM is not going to suddenly move to a CU or anything else until she is able to consider how to move forward. It is clear that she is seeking to retain ERG and DUP support but hopefully to find a compromise on her deal, but it is clear she is anti a second referendum.0 -
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When we execute every mother-******* last one of them?Big_G_NorthWales said:
Again talking unacceptable violence. When will they learneek said:0 -
Interesting suggestion that May might actually be more flexible on plan B than suggested, and just doesn't want to piss anyone off until after the vote0
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Eton Mess most likely but it will be less appetising after they are force fed the 7th bowl.Chris said:
Just desserts? What does that mean? Endless Eccles cakes? Semolina ad infinitum? Unlimited rice pudding?DavidL said:
Yes. If only to give those morons in the ERG their just desserts.Freggles said:Can we just have customs union and workers rights alignment written into the WA and be done with it now?
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There's a simple answer, stop pushing lies and propaganda through innocent householders' letterboxes, which gets filed straight in the recycling, thus wasting energy and resources.Mortimer said:
They are the bane of any deliverers life...tpfkar said:In meetings all day today so can someone fill me in on the big story - did the ground level letterboxes bill get a second reading?
This is not a party political point – everything goes in the recycling regardless of who it is from. The Tories' doorstep donkeys are no worse – and no better – than any of the other rabble.
Do something worthwhile with your evenings instead.0 -
I don't think The Deal is anywhere near as toxic to voters on either side as it apparently is to MPs. Very little negative electoral impact to either party supporting it (at least in the short term).TOPPING said:
At some point, and I don't think it will occur soon with Corbyn in charge, voters will have been exposed to so much division amongst the Conservatives, that the Labour Party could support the deal and not be punished for it at a subsequent general election. The impression would be that the Labour Party had saved the day.Harris_Tweed said:Nothing I've seen indicates that the undoubted huge frustration with the Brexit process will turn into a groundswell of support for a Corbyn government.
I think defeat for him tonight will be a blessing in disguise for Labour. On two counts: there will be a massive "what the hell are you playing at this close to Brexit?" narrative, and he needs to let TMay own Brexit (/lack thereof) until at least March 29th.
I suspect a GE now would probably leave us more or less where we are now. But him picking up the pieces a fortnight before D-Day would mean Brexit gets added to the large pile of stuff which is his fault very soon after.
With the FTPA however, the wait is too long to contemplate such a move now, IMO (Nick?).
The upside for Corbyn in opposing, though, is that the govt of the day will own a non-deal outcome. Most people expect the governing party's MPs to support it; and an opposition opposing is already burnt in.0 -
so let me see MrT, when you employ advisors in your day job, do you do everything they say or do you listen to what they say and then take a view ?TOPPING said:
They were engaged by the government of the day to provide forecasts of possible Brexit scenarios. So sort of, yes.Alanbrooke said:were they the government of the day ?
The buck stopped with HMG not its advisors.0 -
You can't reach out to Corbyn, unless you are tin-pot South American socialist dictator, a terrorist or an anti-Semite. I don't think Theresa May, for all her faults, is any of these things. She will need to go round the idiotRecidivist said:
So the reaching out to other parties didn't last long then.Big_G_NorthWales said:TM destroying Corbyn in an amazing personal attack
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Corbyn is never going to assist and of course, remember, this is a vonc in TM and he is seeking a GE.Recidivist said:
So the reaching out to other parties didn't last long then.Big_G_NorthWales said:TM destroying Corbyn in an amazing personal attack
Today TM shows just how Corbyn is going to come under attack like he did not last time0 -
s'called democracy.Anazina said:
There's a simple answer, stop pushing lies and propaganda through innocent householders' letterboxes, which gets filed straight in the recycling, thus wasting energy and resources.Mortimer said:
They are the bane of any deliverers life...tpfkar said:In meetings all day today so can someone fill me in on the big story - did the ground level letterboxes bill get a second reading?
This is not a party political point – everything goes in the recycling regardless of who it is from. The Tories' doorstep donkeys are no worse – and no better – than any of the other rabble.
Do something worthwhile with your evenings instead.0 -
North of Stoke! Mrs May will be all over you like an octopus....NorthofStoke said:
I agree. I also think many voters are not fools and Corbyn could suddenly experience a big slide in popularity.Slackbladder said:
Thats a good summing up of the position. Especially with May being a remainer, but trying to interpet the referendum to the best of her ability.CD13 said:Mrs May is a Remainer who accepted the result of the referendum and tried her hardest to negotiate a Leave that was as soft as she dared. The EU were happy to go along because it suited them too.
You can blame the more extremist Breixteers, but the root cause of the failure is down to the Labour Party playing silly buggers in favour of party advantage. The SNP are the original stroppy teenagers and the LDs only want Remain.
That's why Mrs May is getting sympathy. She may not be very good (and she isn't) but she comes out as one of the few adults around.0 -
In retrospect, Osborne. I wouldn't have said that at the time though.kinabalu said:
She seems to lack political skills, which is not great for a politician.IanB2 said:The first part was what I was floating this morning. From my experience in industrial relations, things always seem the worst in the moments before a way through is found and agreed. The problem, I think, is that our PM (despite her underestimated skills in progressing determinedly down a single path, on which I have commented before) doesn't have the skill set to deliver a majority in Parliament for any proposal of her own.
Yet I am far from convinced that anybody else who the Tories could have picked post DC would have done substantially better.
I think the problem with Brexit is, fundamentally, Brexit.0 -
I'd like to see them eating humble pie, but there is very little humility going at the moment in the HoC. I expect we might see a surfeit of it in the years to comeDavidL said:
Eton Mess most likely but it will be less appetising after they are force fed the 7th bowl.Chris said:
Just desserts? What does that mean? Endless Eccles cakes? Semolina ad infinitum? Unlimited rice pudding?DavidL said:
Yes. If only to give those morons in the ERG their just desserts.Freggles said:Can we just have customs union and workers rights alignment written into the WA and be done with it now?
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Alan, you will get entry after independence due to his residence and bonus is he will be an EU citizen.Alanbrooke said:
its appalling malc, its so bad my son is emigratingmalcolmg said:
G, it is hard to convince people that anybody thinks May is trustworthy and should remain. She has been an abject failure, lied through her teeth and obfuscated to get her own way. If she had any morals or principles she would have stood down immediately after that humiliation last night. Sadly we see how low the country has fallen by the disreputable actions of our leaders.Big_G_NorthWales said:
As a legacy of my days in business I always listen to 5 live business re is 100% in favour of TM deal and not at all impressed with the DUPYorkcity said:
Supporting what ? A record losing PM, or her Brexit deal.Big_G_NorthWales said:
The comments were not pity but surprisingly supportiveJonathan said:
Pity is a powerful thing. Britains like a plucky loser. Doesn't mean she should not go and hasn't caused this mess.Big_G_NorthWales said:
From the public reaction on the media today it is the politicians who are the problem and TM is receiving surprisingly strong supportJonathan said:
The thread that has run through this is a lack of leadership. She created a vacuum that gave others the space to grow. No-one really is following her lead these days. The free for all we saw yesterday is the ultimate symptom of that.Sean_F said:
The mess has many authors.Jonathan said:
Indeed May really needs to wake up and take responsibility for the mess. The cul-de-sac we are now in is largely (but not exclusively) of her own making.Philip_Thompson said:May should get the self-awareness to realise that she is part of the problem and go.
We should all think what a calamitous mess of the constitution Cameron's FTPA has made.
I think she should step down, but the mess will remain.
The push and pull forces that come from a strong PM really are not there. No-one is convinced by her. No-one is afraid of her. She has tin ear and leaden feet. Its' a hard thing to say about someone clearly doing their best, but she really is the problem.
If that is the case no problem with a new referendum then.
he starts work in Edinburgh end of the month :-)0 -
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I think JRM and his hangers on went for champagne instead. Arseholes.Nigel_Foremain said:
I'd like to see them eating humble pie, but there is very little humility going at the moment in the HoC. I expect we might see a surfeit of it in the years to comeDavidL said:
Eton Mess most likely but it will be less appetising after they are force fed the 7th bowl.Chris said:
Just desserts? What does that mean? Endless Eccles cakes? Semolina ad infinitum? Unlimited rice pudding?DavidL said:
Yes. If only to give those morons in the ERG their just desserts.Freggles said:Can we just have customs union and workers rights alignment written into the WA and be done with it now?
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It was pretty good yesterday.AlastairMeeks said:Anyone betting on 310-319 is in large part betting on the efficiency of Labour’s whipping operation.
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Read and learn, young loyalist.Mortimer said:
I expect that minister not to be reselected by his constituency association...Scott_P said:
"The first duty of a member of Parliament is to do what he thinks in his faithful and disinterested judgement is right and necessary for the honour and safety of Great Britain. His second duty is to his constituents, of whom he is the representative but not the delegate. Burke's famous declaration on this subject is well known. It is only in the third place that his duty to party organization or programme takes rank. All these three loyalties should be observed, but there in no doubt of the order in which they stand under any healthy manifestation of democracy."
Sir Winston Churchill.0 -
He is not advocating Remaining is he? Merely building a consensus form of Leave.Philip_Thompson said:0 -
There's a prog about Hugo Chavez 9pm bbc2 tonight.Nigel_Foremain said:
You can't reach out to Corbyn, unless you are tin-pot South American socialist dictator, a terrorist or an anti-Semite. I don't think Theresa May, for all her faults, is any of these things. She will need to go round the idiotRecidivist said:
So the reaching out to other parties didn't last long then.Big_G_NorthWales said:TM destroying Corbyn in an amazing personal attack
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Because negative campaigning worked so well in the EU referendum?Big_G_NorthWales said:
Corbyn is never going to assist and of course, remember, this is a vonc in TM and he is seeking a GE.Recidivist said:
So the reaching out to other parties didn't last long then.Big_G_NorthWales said:TM destroying Corbyn in an amazing personal attack
Today TM shows just how Corbyn is going to come under attack like he did not last time0 -
I think last night's "reaching out" words were chosen very carefully. "Senior parliamentarians on all sides of the house" means "coffee with Yvette and Chuka", not inviting JC into the tent. Not least because there is not a cat in hell's chance that he will play.Nigel_Foremain said:
You can't reach out to Corbyn, unless you are tin-pot South American socialist dictator, a terrorist or an anti-Semite. I don't think Theresa May, for all her faults, is any of these things. She will need to go round the idiotRecidivist said:
So the reaching out to other parties didn't last long then.Big_G_NorthWales said:TM destroying Corbyn in an amazing personal attack
In short.. I reckon she sees herself having a go at building the sort of coalition which the GONU fans fantasise about (probably with a side order of "of course Jacob.. you could end all this by backing Plan A).0 -
Nope. It's called waste.TOPPING said:
s'called democracy.Anazina said:
There's a simple answer, stop pushing lies and propaganda through innocent householders' letterboxes, which gets filed straight in the recycling, thus wasting energy and resources.Mortimer said:
They are the bane of any deliverers life...tpfkar said:In meetings all day today so can someone fill me in on the big story - did the ground level letterboxes bill get a second reading?
This is not a party political point – everything goes in the recycling regardless of who it is from. The Tories' doorstep donkeys are no worse – and no better – than any of the other rabble.
Do something worthwhile with your evenings instead.0 -
This is brilliant. https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/jan/16/westminster-apocalypse-may-tories-opportunity
As for the more provisional wing of the People’s Vote, we no longer need to computer-model the answer to the question: what would happen if you gave everyone on Henman Hill crystal meth?
and
The same could not be said of Theresa May, who rose to the occasion like a replicant Anglepoise lamp.0 -
You said they hadn't done any no deal planning. I have shown you that they did. That was our discussion.Alanbrooke said:
so let me see MrT, when you employ advisors in your day job, do you do everything they say or do you listen to what they say and then take a view ?TOPPING said:
They were engaged by the government of the day to provide forecasts of possible Brexit scenarios. So sort of, yes.Alanbrooke said:were they the government of the day ?
The buck stopped with HMG not its advisors.0 -
malc we all have our Irish passports already :-)malcolmg said:
Alan, you will get entry after independence due to his residence and bonus is he will be an EU citizen.Alanbrooke said:
its appalling malc, its so bad my son is emigratingmalcolmg said:
G, it is hard to convince people that anybody thinks May is trustworthy and should remain. She has been an abject failure, lied through her teeth and obfuscated to get her own way. If she had any morals or principles she would have stood down immediately after that humiliation last night. Sadly we see how low the country has fallen by the disreputable actions of our leaders.Big_G_NorthWales said:
As a legacy of my days in business I always listen to 5 live business re is 100% in favour of TM deal and not at all impressed with the DUPYorkcity said:
Supporting what ? A record losing PM, or her Brexit deal.Big_G_NorthWales said:
The comments were not pity but surprisingly supportiveJonathan said:
Pity is a powerful thing. Britains like a plucky loser. Doesn't mean she should not go and hasn't caused this mess.Big_G_NorthWales said:
From the public reaction on the media today it is the politicians who are the problem and TM is receiving surprisingly strong supportJonathan said:
The thread that has run through this is a lack of leadership. She created a vacuum that gave others the space to grow. No-one really is following her lead these days. The free for all we saw yesterday is the ultimate symptom of that.Sean_F said:
The mess has many authors.Jonathan said:
Indeed May really needs to wake up and take responsibility for the mess. The cul-de-sac we are now in is largely (but not exclusively) of her own making.Philip_Thompson said:May should get the self-awareness to realise that she is part of the problem and go.
We should all think what a calamitous mess of the constitution Cameron's FTPA has made.
I think she should step down, but the mess will remain.
The push and pull forces that come from a strong PM really are not there. No-one is convinced by her. No-one is afraid of her. She has tin ear and leaden feet. Its' a hard thing to say about someone clearly doing their best, but she really is the problem.
If that is the case no problem with a new referendum then.
he starts work in Edinburgh end of the month :-)
Im hoping I get a Scottish one to complete the set as my grandfather was born in Dunfiesshire
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Well said.kinabalu said:One particular thing struck me with some force about the events of yesterday.
There were large numbers of nutcases hanging around Westminster, a mix of euro-zealots hell bent on overturning the EU referendum result, and unsavoury primitives from racists-on-sea who think 'real brexit' means what the country would look like if the BNP had just won a GE landslide - and all of these characters, every single one of them, was absolutely delighted with how the vote in parliament went.
Now if they are delighted, I would respectfully suggest that nobody else should be. Or if they are, they should at the very least examine their reasons for being so, and make sure that they stand up.
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"Semolina ad infinitum" can very nearly be sung to the tune of Carl Orff's O Fortuna.Nigel_Foremain said:
Semolina ad infinitum sounds like my idea of hell, or possibly, a very bad piece of choral music, either of which I would happily wish on Jacob Rees Mogg and his merry band of swivel-eyed thickosChris said:
Just desserts? What does that mean? Endless Eccles cakes? Semolina ad infinitum? Unlimited rice pudding?DavidL said:
Yes. If only to give those morons in the ERG their just desserts.Freggles said:Can we just have customs union and workers rights alignment written into the WA and be done with it now?
Apologies for mentioning a German composer at this sensitive moment in our history. I do realise it should be Henry VIII, Purcell, Arne, Elgar, Vaughan Williams and above all Britten at this juncture. (Maybe Delius too, but in the cicumstances I'm not sure we should take the chance.)0 -
When I suggested riding the gnu yesterday several PBers considered it a moment of comedy!Harris_Tweed said:
I think last night's "reaching out" words were chosen very carefully. "Senior parliamentarians on all sides of the house" means "coffee with Yvette and Chuka", not inviting JC into the tent. Not least because there is not a cat in hell's chance that he will play.Nigel_Foremain said:
You can't reach out to Corbyn, unless you are tin-pot South American socialist dictator, a terrorist or an anti-Semite. I don't think Theresa May, for all her faults, is any of these things. She will need to go round the idiotRecidivist said:
So the reaching out to other parties didn't last long then.Big_G_NorthWales said:TM destroying Corbyn in an amazing personal attack
In short.. I reckon she sees herself having a go at building the sort of coalition which the GONU fans fantasise about (probably with a side order of "of course Jacob.. you could end all this by backing Plan A).0 -
Oh for the days when our elected politicians knew the difference between uninterested and disinterested.Anazina said:
Read and learn, young loyalist.Mortimer said:
I expect that minister not to be reselected by his constituency association...Scott_P said:
"The first duty of a member of Parliament is to do what he thinks in his faithful and disinterested judgement is right and necessary for the honour and safety of Great Britain. His second duty is to his constituents, of whom he is the representative but not the delegate. Burke's famous declaration on this subject is well known. It is only in the third place that his duty to party organization or programme takes rank. All these three loyalties should be observed, but there in no doubt of the order in which they stand under any healthy manifestation of democracy."
Sir Winston Churchill.0 -
TM attack today was the first coherent well crafted attack on Corbyn I have heard from any politician, all of it was true, and would resound with the publicDecrepitJohnL said:
Because negative campaigning worked so well in the EU referendum?Big_G_NorthWales said:
Corbyn is never going to assist and of course, remember, this is a vonc in TM and he is seeking a GE.Recidivist said:
So the reaching out to other parties didn't last long then.Big_G_NorthWales said:TM destroying Corbyn in an amazing personal attack
Today TM shows just how Corbyn is going to come under attack like he did not last time0 -
Re low letter boxes: https://www.cwu.org/ltb/ltb082-18-low-level-letter-boxes-re-launch-cwu-low-level-letter-box-campaign/
Unions have been campaigning on this since the 1950s!!
Bad for postmen - causes back problems.
Ireland banned them in 2001. Somewhat surprised it hasn't happened in Britain bearing mind the CWU, HSE and Royal Mail have asked for it.0 -
Very true. They need to round up some of their dissidents from yesterday today though.david_herdson said:
It was pretty good yesterday.AlastairMeeks said:Anyone betting on 310-319 is in large part betting on the efficiency of Labour’s whipping operation.
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Depends how he's feeling, he hates precedent after allTheScreamingEagles said:
Yes, but Bercow would only ever vote in a tie.Pulpstar said:Pulpstar said:Do Laing, Winterton and Hoyle get a vote in the confidence motion ?
Bercow + 7 Sinn Fein don't/won't...
2 tellers each side that don't count also ?
650 - Bercow = 649
649 - Sinn Fein = 642
642 - 4 tellers = 638 max ?
But I note the 2017 vote was 323 to 309 = 632..
Thanks,TheScreamingEagles said:The Deputy Speakers don’t vote.
650 - (Bercow+ 3 Deputies) = 646
646 - Sinn Fein = 639
639 - 4 tellers = 635 max ?0 -
I think we have fundamentally different views of what planning means.TOPPING said:
You said they hadn't done any no deal planning. I have shown you that they did. That was our discussion.Alanbrooke said:
so let me see MrT, when you employ advisors in your day job, do you do everything they say or do you listen to what they say and then take a view ?TOPPING said:
They were engaged by the government of the day to provide forecasts of possible Brexit scenarios. So sort of, yes.Alanbrooke said:were they the government of the day ?
The buck stopped with HMG not its advisors.0 -
Assuming they want to run the risk of actually winning, of course.AlastairMeeks said:
Very true. They need to round up some of their dissidents from yesterday today though.david_herdson said:
It was pretty good yesterday.AlastairMeeks said:Anyone betting on 310-319 is in large part betting on the efficiency of Labour’s whipping operation.
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Ha! QuiteDavidL said:
Oh for the days when our elected politicians knew the difference between uninterested and disinterested.Anazina said:
Read and learn, young loyalist.Mortimer said:
I expect that minister not to be reselected by his constituency association...Scott_P said:
"The first duty of a member of Parliament is to do what he thinks in his faithful and disinterested judgement is right and necessary for the honour and safety of Great Britain. His second duty is to his constituents, of whom he is the representative but not the delegate. Burke's famous declaration on this subject is well known. It is only in the third place that his duty to party organization or programme takes rank. All these three loyalties should be observed, but there in no doubt of the order in which they stand under any healthy manifestation of democracy."
Sir Winston Churchill.
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Doesn't matter. That it was 'forced' will already be fact to some, with the not unreasonable backup of previous Tory duplicity.Scrapheap_as_was said:Corbyn makes big attack on Tories forcing heavily pregnant Tulipp to come to vote yesterday..... Soubry raises point of order to ask if a pair was offered.... Bercow confirms it was ....
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In reality the priorities are:-Anazina said:
Read and learn, young loyalist.Mortimer said:
I expect that minister not to be reselected by his constituency association...Scott_P said:
"The first duty of a member of Parliament is to do what he thinks in his faithful and disinterested judgement is right and necessary for the honour and safety of Great Britain. His second duty is to his constituents, of whom he is the representative but not the delegate. Burke's famous declaration on this subject is well known. It is only in the third place that his duty to party organization or programme takes rank. All these three loyalties should be observed, but there in no doubt of the order in which they stand under any healthy manifestation of democracy."
Sir Winston Churchill.
1. What is best for my career prospects ?
2. How can I best punish my enemies?
3. How can I outwit my rivals?
4. How can I evade my responsibilities?
5. How do I win the blame game?
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It's been a bad season for us wishy-washy types.kle4 said:
Well said.kinabalu said:One particular thing struck me with some force about the events of yesterday.
There were large numbers of nutcases hanging around Westminster, a mix of euro-zealots hell bent on overturning the EU referendum result, and unsavoury primitives from racists-on-sea who think 'real brexit' means what the country would look like if the BNP had just won a GE landslide - and all of these characters, every single one of them, was absolutely delighted with how the vote in parliament went.
Now if they are delighted, I would respectfully suggest that nobody else should be. Or if they are, they should at the very least examine their reasons for being so, and make sure that they stand up.0 -
Well that is because you seemed to be suggesting that the solution was a long haired antelope. As if Parliament was not a low grade zoo already.Anazina said:
When I suggested riding the gnu yesterday several PBers considered it a moment of comedy!Harris_Tweed said:
I think last night's "reaching out" words were chosen very carefully. "Senior parliamentarians on all sides of the house" means "coffee with Yvette and Chuka", not inviting JC into the tent. Not least because there is not a cat in hell's chance that he will play.Nigel_Foremain said:
You can't reach out to Corbyn, unless you are tin-pot South American socialist dictator, a terrorist or an anti-Semite. I don't think Theresa May, for all her faults, is any of these things. She will need to go round the idiotRecidivist said:
So the reaching out to other parties didn't last long then.Big_G_NorthWales said:TM destroying Corbyn in an amazing personal attack
In short.. I reckon she sees herself having a go at building the sort of coalition which the GONU fans fantasise about (probably with a side order of "of course Jacob.. you could end all this by backing Plan A).0 -
In other words 'Atame'. Rough translation....tie a naked David Cameron to an incontinent donkey and send it through the City of London before sitting him in a ducking stool and lowering it into the Thames. That'll cheer everyone upwilliamglenn said:0 -
Not at all. It is the form that democracy takes in this country.Anazina said:
Nope. It's called waste.TOPPING said:
s'called democracy.Anazina said:
There's a simple answer, stop pushing lies and propaganda through innocent householders' letterboxes, which gets filed straight in the recycling, thus wasting energy and resources.Mortimer said:
They are the bane of any deliverers life...tpfkar said:In meetings all day today so can someone fill me in on the big story - did the ground level letterboxes bill get a second reading?
This is not a party political point – everything goes in the recycling regardless of who it is from. The Tories' doorstep donkeys are no worse – and no better – than any of the other rabble.
Do something worthwhile with your evenings instead.0 -
The timetable if the government were to lose the vote is truly scary:
https://interactive.guim.co.uk/uploader/embed/2019/01/lose-scenarios-zip/giv-39021luowWcuqshN/0 -
What a relief.RochdalePioneers said:
Nothing has changed!Scott_P said:0 -
I think PB will agree that there is nothing elite about plane travel...williamglenn said:0 -
As plenty on here have asked previously, what exactly would you like them to have done between 7th May 2015 and 23rd June 2016?Alanbrooke said:
I think we have fundamentally different views of what planning means.TOPPING said:
You said they hadn't done any no deal planning. I have shown you that they did. That was our discussion.Alanbrooke said:
so let me see MrT, when you employ advisors in your day job, do you do everything they say or do you listen to what they say and then take a view ?TOPPING said:
They were engaged by the government of the day to provide forecasts of possible Brexit scenarios. So sort of, yes.Alanbrooke said:were they the government of the day ?
The buck stopped with HMG not its advisors.0 -
Gulp.Richard_Nabavi said:The timetable if the government were to lose the vote is truly scary:
https://interactive.guim.co.uk/uploader/embed/2019/01/lose-scenarios-zip/giv-39021luowWcuqshN/0 -
Strong and stable.kle4 said:
What a relief.RochdalePioneers said:
Nothing has changed!Scott_P said:
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He's hardly the only issue, but that kind of attitude, left and right EU and not EU, is Why we are so screwedAlanbrooke said:Dont mention the wall
Michal Martin leader of Fianna Fail says RoI politicans all know they are heading for a hard border.
Varadkar doubles up and says no and hes making no further preparations for it
https://www.independent.ie/business/brexit/dont-mention-the-war-private-understanding-hard-border-is-increasingly-likely-martin-claims-37717865.html
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LOL.Peter_the_Punter said:
It's been a bad season for us wishy-washy types.kle4 said:
Well said.kinabalu said:One particular thing struck me with some force about the events of yesterday.
There were large numbers osf nutcases hanging around Westminster, a mix of euro-zealots hell bent on overturning the EU referendum result, and unsavoury primitives from racists-on-sea who think 'real brexit' means what the country would look like if the BNP had just won a GE landslide - and all of these characters, every single one of them, was absolutely delighted with how the vote in parliament went.
Now if they are delighted, I would respectfully suggest that nobody else should be. Or if they are, they should at the very least examine their reasons for being so, and make sure that they stand up.0 -
I found both Corbyn and May both awful and in their own now familiar ways...
0 -
We're not talking plane travel we're talking PJ travel...Mortimer said:
I think PB will agree that there is nothing elite about plane travel...williamglenn said:0 -
That is super-scary. Right in the middle of Cheltenham.Richard_Nabavi said:The timetable if the government were to lose the vote is truly scary:
https://interactive.guim.co.uk/uploader/embed/2019/01/lose-scenarios-zip/giv-39021luowWcuqshN/0 -
What's elite about private jet travel? Doesn't everyone have one?TOPPING said:
We're not talking plane travel we're talking PJ travel...Mortimer said:
I think PB will agree that there is nothing elite about plane travel...williamglenn said:0 -
Betfair's implied probability of leaving on schedule now down to 15%.0
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I actually would vote for thatRoger said:
In other words 'Atame'. Rough translation....tie a naked David Cameron to an incontinent donkey and send it through the City of London before sitting him in a ducking stool and lowering it into the Thames. That'll cheer everyone upwilliamglenn said:0 -
May needs to make a statement to the house on Monday, and then commend it to the house via an amendable motion.
So she has until Monday to find a form of words that a majority of MPs will support. And apparently she's planning to do that without talking to the opposition.
Whew boi, talking about making things harder than they need be.0 -
Some lease them, if you can imagine.Sean_F said:
What's elite about private jet travel? Doesn't everyone have one?TOPPING said:
We're not talking plane travel we're talking PJ travel...Mortimer said:
I think PB will agree that there is nothing elite about plane travel...williamglenn said:0 -
Alanbrooke said:
malc we all have our Irish passports already :-)malcolmg said:
Alan, you will get entry after independence due to his residence and bonus is he will be an EU citizen.Alanbrooke said:
its appalling malc, its so bad my son is emigratingmalcolmg said:
G, it is hard to convince people that anybody thinks May is trustworthy and should remain. She has been an abject failure, lied through her teeth and obfuscated to get her own way. If she had any morals or principles she would have stood down immediately after that humiliation last night. Sadly we see how low the country has fallen by the disreputable actions of our leaders.Big_G_NorthWales said:
As a legacy of my days in business I always listen to 5 live business re is 100% in favour of TM deal and not at all impressed with the DUPYorkcity said:
Supporting what ? A record losing PM, or her Brexit deal.Big_G_NorthWales said:
The comments were not pity but surprisingly supportiveJonathan said:
Pity is a powerful thing. Britains like a plucky loser. Doesn't mean she should not go and hasn't caused this mess.Big_G_NorthWales said:
From the public reaction on the media today it is the politicians who are the problem and TM is receiving surprisingly strong supportJonathan said:
The thread that has run through this is a lack of leadership. She created a vacuum that gave others the space to grow. No-one really is following her lead these days. The free for all we saw yesterday is the ultimate symptom of that.Sean_F said:
SNIPJonathan said:
Indeed May really needs to wake up and take responsibility for the mess. The cul-de-sac we are now in is largely (but not exclusively) of her own making.Philip_Thompson said:May should get the self-awareness to realise that she is part of the problem and go.
We should all think what a calamitous mess of the constitution Cameron's FTPA has made.
The push and pull forces that come from a strong PM really are not there. No-one is convinced by her. No-one is afraid of her. She has tin ear and leaden feet. Its' a hard thing to say about someone clearly doing their best, but she really is the problem.
If that is the case no problem with a new referendum then.
he starts work in Edinburgh end of the month :-)
Im hoping I get a Scottish one to complete the set as my grandfather was born in Dunfiesshire a full house 0 -
Looks perfect!Richard_Nabavi said:The timetable if the government were to lose the vote is truly scary:
https://interactive.guim.co.uk/uploader/embed/2019/01/lose-scenarios-zip/giv-39021luowWcuqshN/0 -
they could have started off a la John Howard and framed a sensible set of referendum questions before the vote. That alone would have saved about a year of pointless farting about.TOPPING said:
As plenty on here have asked previously, what exactly would you like them to have done between 7th May 2015 and 23rd June 2016?Alanbrooke said:
I think we have fundamentally different views of what planning means.TOPPING said:
You said they hadn't done any no deal planning. I have shown you that they did. That was our discussion.Alanbrooke said:
so let me see MrT, when you employ advisors in your day job, do you do everything they say or do you listen to what they say and then take a view ?TOPPING said:
They were engaged by the government of the day to provide forecasts of possible Brexit scenarios. So sort of, yes.Alanbrooke said:were they the government of the day ?
The buck stopped with HMG not its advisors.
They could also have tried to give a balanced view of leaving instead of the nonsense from Osborne. Cameron should have sat the whole thing out.
0 -
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TBH May's much more likely to lose the second or third VONC when the ERG abstain en masse at her decision to support a permanent customs union.TOPPING said:
That is super-scary. Right in the middle of Cheltenham.Richard_Nabavi said:The timetable if the government were to lose the vote is truly scary:
https://interactive.guim.co.uk/uploader/embed/2019/01/lose-scenarios-zip/giv-39021luowWcuqshN/0 -
Very good comment. It's incredibly frustrating as something has to give but so long as the most extreme are like this May cannot even give in to one and see it through.Richard_Nabavi said:
Yes, and if anything last night's vote made the polarisation worse. The fact that both the ERG and the ultra-remainers/people's-voters were jubilant at the result means that both extremes think they are winning - so why would either side compromise?Big_G_NorthWales said:The reasons the same question are being asked and same responses are given shows how polarised the mps are.
TM is not going to suddenly move to a CU or anything else until she is able to consider how to move forward. It is clear that she is seeking to retain ERG and DUP support but hopefully to find a compromise on her deal, but it is clear she is anti a second referendum.
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Only peasants use airplanes. I take my private blimp.Sean_F said:
What's elite about private jet travel? Doesn't everyone have one?TOPPING said:
We're not talking plane travel we're talking PJ travel...Mortimer said:
I think PB will agree that there is nothing elite about plane travel...williamglenn said:0 -
He wants a no deal brexit, and a distraction, he can safely be ignored.williamglenn said:
0 -
Nor being a Nazi....Vivre La differenceMortimer said:
I think PB will agree that there is nothing elite about plane travel...williamglenn said:
(It might be old but it does show that leopards don't change their spots....)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dqlm-g82ulo0 -
They know that Corbyn is going to weasel out of backing a 2nd ref by instead choosing to bring further vonc.Scott_P said:
They are trying to back him into a corner.0 -
How many is too many? More than 1 or more like more than 2?Scott_P said:
0 -
The worrying thing for the UK is that the EU as a whole seems to be warming to the idea that a no-deal Brexit is better than allowing this farce to be renewed for another season.kle4 said:0 -
True, and to be fair , May is closer to Corbyn currently over Brexit.Scrapheap_as_was said:I found both Corbyn and May both awful and in their own now familiar ways...
Than she is with Chuka and chums..0 -
Heh, good timinggrabcocque said:
TBH May's much more likely to lose the second or third VONC when the ERG abstain en masse at her decision to support a permanent customs union.TOPPING said:
That is super-scary. Right in the middle of Cheltenham.Richard_Nabavi said:The timetable if the government were to lose the vote is truly scary:
https://interactive.guim.co.uk/uploader/embed/2019/01/lose-scenarios-zip/giv-39021luowWcuqshN/
0 -
Not some total nobody of the tw@tterverse. Writer for The Guardian, Independent, BBC. Obviously a joke, but should know better.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Again talking unacceptable violence. When will they learneek said:0 -
It's a good thing. It will concentrate minds.grabcocque said:
The worrying thing for the UK is that the EU as a whole seems to be warming to the idea that a no-deal Brexit is better than allowing this farce to be renewed for another season.kle4 said:0 -
Good afternoon, my fellow patriots.
Nearly at the end of a sci-fi war story called Repulse. Some people advocating an invasion have lost an argument after they were unable to put forward any concrete proposals. Did raise a wry smile.0 -
It would be hilarious if we ended up with the ERG voting with Labour in a second confidence vote and still the government survived.Scott_P said:0 -
I mean obviously being in the customs union and outside the single market is absolutely absurd in the extreme.
Brexiteers want frictionless trade with the single market and the ability to set our own independent trade policy.
In the CU and out of Single Market, as is currently being talked about, is the ABSOLUTE OPPOSITE of what most Brexiteers want.
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It will be toxic now. Having been so rejected no one will keep backing a loser.Harris_Tweed said:
I don't think The Deal is anywhere near as toxic to voters on either side as it apparently is to MPs. Very little negative electoral impact to either party supporting it (at least in the short term).TOPPING said:
At some point, and I don't think it will occur soon with Corbyn in charge, voters will have been exposed to so much division amongst the Conservatives, that the Labour Party could support the deal and not be punished for it at a subsequent general election. The impression would be that the Labour Party had saved the day.Harris_Tweed said:Nothing I've seen indicates that the undoubted huge frustration with the Brexit process will turn into a groundswell of support for a Corbyn government.
I think defeat for him tonight will be a blessing in disguise for Labour. On two counts: there will be a massive "what the hell are you playing at this close to Brexit?" narrative, and he needs to let TMay own Brexit (/lack thereof) until at least March 29th.
I suspect a GE now would probably leave us more or less where we are now. But him picking up the pieces a fortnight before D-Day would mean Brexit gets added to the large pile of stuff which is his fault very soon after.
With the FTPA however, the wait is too long to contemplate such a move now, IMO (Nick?).
The upside for Corbyn in opposing, though, is that the govt of the day will own a non-deal outcome. Most people expect the governing party's MPs to support it; and an opposition opposing is already burnt in.
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As I said earlier today, the view is that it will be a customs union which may pick up some Lab votes. Of course again, the idiocy of it all is that this is the withdrawal agreement, not the final trade agreement.grabcocque said:
TBH May's much more likely to lose the second or third VONC when the ERG abstain en masse at her decision to support a permanent customs union.TOPPING said:
That is super-scary. Right in the middle of Cheltenham.Richard_Nabavi said:The timetable if the government were to lose the vote is truly scary:
https://interactive.guim.co.uk/uploader/embed/2019/01/lose-scenarios-zip/giv-39021luowWcuqshN/
IMO 94.382% of the problems stem from the often wilful misunderstanding of the difference between the two.
None of it means I won't be cheering on Kalashnikov in the Arkle.0 -
If we are talking about horrible punishments used in the past I think Cameron deserves something particularly painful and nasty but since this a family programme I will refrain from giving further details.Roger said:
In other words 'Atame'. Rough translation....tie a naked David Cameron to an incontinent donkey and send it through the City of London before sitting him in a ducking stool and lowering it into the Thames. That'll cheer everyone upwilliamglenn said:0
