politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The weekend polling suggest that Trump is losing voter support
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The weekend polling suggest that Trump is losing voter support in the battle of “The Wall”
With the US government shutdown continuing and 800k federal workers not getting their salary cheques on Friday there’s no sign of an end to what is totally dominating US politics. Basically Trump has shut down large parts of the federal government to put pressure on the Democrats to provide funding for a wall along the whole of the Mexican-US border. This was a key Trump WH2016 campaign pledge when he said the Mexicans would pay. That, as you’d expect has not been forthcoming.
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A hit and a miss from Trump.
https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/10846332304673095690 -
Trump really is an arse; not at all presidential.0
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Anyhow, what about the Brexit ?0
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Yep.asjohnstone said:Trump really is an arse; not at all presidential.
https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/10846470502083338250 -
This shutdown is hard to get out of. Normally, the two parties are fighting over the support of 51%, which by definition only one side can win, so when it becomes clear who the voters are blaming the losing side gives in. But in this case the Dems want 60% and Trump wants the 33% he needs to keep the GOP on side when the Mueller report comes out, so on their own terms, both sides are winning.0
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An acquaintance is having trouble renewing their US visa thanks to the shutdown.edmundintokyo said:This shutdown is hard to get out of. Normally, the two parties are fighting over the support of 51%, which by definition only one side can win, so when it becomes clear who the voters are blaming the losing side gives in. But in this case the Dems want 60% and Trump wants the 33% he needs to keep the GOP on side when the Mueller report comes out, so on their own terms, both sides are winning.
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The great thing about this row is we can get some reliable polling on how many Americans believe they don’t need no education.0
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FPT Mike Wood signalled a month ago that he was opposed to the deal. He did not resign then only because the matter was not forced to a vote. He is not a new name in the opposed column.0
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Where is everyone?0
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Stockpiling food and water ?Charles said:Where is everyone?
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And spare batteries so we can keep posting on PB even if the lights go out.asjohnstone said:
Stockpiling food and water ?Charles said:Where is everyone?
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Meanwhile Theresa May is spending the day in Stoke......She's certainy prepared to put herself through hell to get this deal through0
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A linguist's analysis of the Warren beer "disaster":
https://www.theatlantic.com/entertainment/archive/2019/01/why-elizabeth-warrens-beer-moment-fell-flat/579544/
It's a profoundly silly affair, but probably quite a good analysis of how personality politics works and the dangers of "false authenticity". I'm convinced that people don't much mind whether someone is like them - what they want to know is whether someone cares about them.0 -
He is, but Pocahontas is not going to beat him. She’s the white liberal that makes even white liberals roll their eyes.williamglenn said:
Yep.asjohnstone said:Trump really is an arse; not at all presidential.
https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/10846470502083338250 -
Brexit? What's that? Don't recall anyone mentioning it today.asjohnstone said:Anyhow, what about the Brexit ?
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Getting popcorn in for what might be Andy Murray's last ever match.ydoethur said:
And spare batteries so we can keep posting on PB even if the lights go out.asjohnstone said:
Stockpiling food and water ?Charles said:Where is everyone?
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The direction of travel of those polls is towards crossover. Not expecting it to happen, but those opposing building a wall have fallen noticeably. (Was 60, now 56)
Edited; due to poor eyesight & small type!0 -
Brexit means Brexit. Apparently.NickPalmer said:
Brexit? What's that? Don't recall anyone mentioning it today.asjohnstone said:Anyhow, what about the Brexit ?
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Yes, I thought the graph didn't match the header well.OldKingCole said:The direction of travel of those polls is towards crossover. Not expecting it to happen, but those opposing building a wall have fallen noticeably. (Was 60, now 50)
Nonetheless Trumpland is a bonkers place!0 -
She's visiting bet365 to back her deal in person.ydoethur said:0 -
Probably best not to be one in the automative parts business.ydoethur said:0 -
There is not a lot to admire about Trump but he means what he says and delivers, or tries to, on his campaign pledges, even the stupid ones like trade wars. He means what he says about the wall and he is not afraid to court unpopularity to deliver.U.K. politicians might have nicer table manners and be free of Trumps character flaws but they show nowhere near the same honesty of intent.0
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Trump won in places like Pennsylvania because he convinced working classes that America was going the wrong direction and he, uniquely, would be kicking ass. Even the lowest information voter can hardly think Trump is taking America the right direction.0
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Isn’t unemployment the lowest it’s been for decades across the board?FF43 said:Trump won in places like Pennsylvania because he convinced working classes that America was going the wrong direction and he, uniquely, would be kicking ass. Even the lowest information voter can hardly think Trump is taking America the right direction.
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Fair point. America has been in an economic upcycle, partially artificially inflated by Trump's policies. Unfortunately for Trump, it looks like the cycle is turning.notme2 said:
Isn’t unemployment the lowest it’s been for decades across the board?FF43 said:Trump won in places like Pennsylvania because he convinced working classes that America was going the wrong direction and he, uniquely, would be kicking ass. Even the lowest information voter can hardly think Trump is taking America the right direction.
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Obama built huge stretches of wall (well fence) massively expanding the physical US/Mexico infastructure.
The Wall Trump wants to build is racism. He want 5 billion dollars to fund racism.
This is one of those figuratively / literally moments.0 -
Actually, I think authenticity yptends to be the determining factor for successful politicians - whether it’s Thatcher or the new congresswoman Ocasio-Cortez.NickPalmer said:A linguist's analysis of the Warren beer "disaster":
https://www.theatlantic.com/entertainment/archive/2019/01/why-elizabeth-warrens-beer-moment-fell-flat/579544/
It's a profoundly silly affair, but probably quite a good analysis of how personality politics works and the dangers of "false authenticity". I'm convinced that people don't much mind whether someone is like them - what they want to know is whether someone cares about them.
Trump is an obvious counterexample, but even he is true to his appalling self (and nothing else).
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Yes, and the latest survey suggests that the Brexit grievances are not exactly well-founded:notme2 said:
Isn’t unemployment the lowest it’s been for decades across the board?FF43 said:Trump won in places like Pennsylvania because he convinced working classes that America was going the wrong direction and he, uniquely, would be kicking ass. Even the lowest information voter can hardly think Trump is taking America the right direction.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jan/14/uk-jobs-boom-strongest-in-south-yorkshire-and-merseyside-thinktank-finds
I am pretty sure that Brexit will do little or nothing to aid the regions in decline. And less than nothing to insulate them from any negative effects.0 -
Apparently we have a choice between "Bobby Ewing Brexit" (It's all a dream) or "Hotel California Brexit" (You can check out any time you like, but can never leave).NickPalmer said:
Brexit? What's that? Don't recall anyone mentioning it today.asjohnstone said:Anyhow, what about the Brexit ?
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70% of Stoke voted to Leave.
I think they misunderstood the question0 -
Good morning, everyone.
I do feel sorry for those who aren't getting paid.0 -
I swear I saw someone say since the shutdown more republicans support the wall, but I can't find the citation.
Anyway, partisanship is a hell of a drug.
Edit: found citation:
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/trump-shutdown-latest-border-wall-poll-support-tweets-republicans-democrats-graham-pelosi-a8726206.html0 -
Morning all.
The Welsh Assembly storm-in-a-teacup is getting interesting, chiefly because it risks widening the (currently narrowly-held) perception of May as a habitual liar and, on this particular issue, a hypocrite. About the one thing she has left going for her is that her personal qualities appear to have been sustaining her "best PM" numbers. If she's widely characterised as a liar that may not survive.0 -
Is it too late to propose a ‘Marmite’ Brexit? Everyone likes Marmite.No_Offence_Alan said:
Apparently we have a choice between "Bobby Ewing Brexit" (It's all a dream) or "Hotel California Brexit" (You can check out any time you like, but can never leave).NickPalmer said:
Brexit? What's that? Don't recall anyone mentioning it today.asjohnstone said:Anyhow, what about the Brexit ?
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https://twitter.com/carlzimmer/status/1084598280712003584?s=19Morris_Dancer said:Good morning, everyone.
I do feel sorry for those who aren't getting paid.0 -
This thread illustrates a point that I have made rather often in relation to Brexit:El_Capitano said:Morning all.
The Welsh Assembly storm-in-a-teacup is getting interesting, chiefly because it risks widening the (currently narrowly-held) perception of May as a habitual liar and, on this particular issue, a hypocrite. About the one thing she has left going for her is that her personal qualities appear to have been sustaining her "best PM" numbers. If she's widely characterised as a liar that may not survive.
https://twitter.com/RWynJones/status/1084721238809997313
One day Leavers will accept it. But not yet, I expect.0 -
Waste of time. Heck, some people use the fact the EU have agreed to it as proof it is no good, rather misunderstanding negotiations. But in any case the first vote cannot be saved.williamglenn said:
Trump has a better shot at hisxwall than brexit does of happening.0 -
He didn't mean what he said about Mexico paying for the wall, or about a healthcare plan that would cover everybody with more benefits at lower cost. This was all bullshit.AmpfieldAndy said:There is not a lot to admire about Trump but he means what he says and delivers, or tries to, on his campaign pledges, even the stupid ones like trade wars. He means what he says about the wall and he is not afraid to court unpopularity to deliver.U.K. politicians might have nicer table manners and be free of Trumps character flaws but they show nowhere near the same honesty of intent.
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The graph appears to contradict the lead.0
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I would hope so. No one can be like all the people. But you must recognise political parties deliberately pretend otherwise and heavily suggest their opponent, if say they went to private school or is a rich socialist, could not possibly care or understand about the people. It's one of those slightly patronising things politicians do.NickPalmer said:A linguist's analysis of the Warren beer "disaster":
https://www.theatlantic.com/entertainment/archive/2019/01/why-elizabeth-warrens-beer-moment-fell-flat/579544/
It's a profoundly silly affair, but probably quite a good analysis of how personality politics works and the dangers of "false authenticity". I'm convinced that people don't much mind whether someone is like them - what they want to know is whether someone cares about them.0 -
... thanks to Obama.notme2 said:
Isn’t unemployment the lowest it’s been for decades across the board?FF43 said:Trump won in places like Pennsylvania because he convinced working classes that America was going the wrong direction and he, uniquely, would be kicking ass. Even the lowest information voter can hardly think Trump is taking America the right direction.
We'll see Trump's figures when the economy has had time to react to them.0 -
In a recent TV documentary, was surprised to discover that Clinton had already built some of the wall.
"The first major federal move towards constructing a border fence began in 1993, when Bill Clinton signed off on Operations Safeguard and Hold the Line, which authorized the construction of fencing along the border in Arizona and Texas respectively. A third installment, Operation Gatekeeper, was authorized in 1994 for the construction of fencing along the border in California. Collectively, these three operations were enacted with the intent to stem illegal immigration and drug trafficking from Latin America."
Ah, but this was a cuddly, concrete wall aimed at supporting diversity.0 -
It's a good thread. And underlines how it is a mistake to see a referendum vote as the end of the job, rather than when the real work should have started.AlastairMeeks said:
This thread illustrates a point that I have made rather often in relation to Brexit:El_Capitano said:Morning all.
The Welsh Assembly storm-in-a-teacup is getting interesting, chiefly because it risks widening the (currently narrowly-held) perception of May as a habitual liar and, on this particular issue, a hypocrite. About the one thing she has left going for her is that her personal qualities appear to have been sustaining her "best PM" numbers. If she's widely characterised as a liar that may not survive.
https://twitter.com/RWynJones/status/1084721238809997313
One day Leavers will accept it. But not yet, I expect.0 -
and later democrats backed various fencing I believe.CD13 said:In a recent TV documentary, was surprised to discover that Clinton had already built some of the wall.
"The first major federal move towards constructing a border fence began in 1993, when Bill Clinton signed off on Operations Safeguard and Hold the Line, which authorized the construction of fencing along the border in Arizona and Texas respectively. A third installment, Operation Gatekeeper, was authorized in 1994 for the construction of fencing along the border in California. Collectively, these three operations were enacted with the intent to stem illegal immigration and drug trafficking from Latin America."
Ah, but this was a cuddly, concrete wall aimed at supporting diversity.
It is why this seems purely a dispute about money and effectiveness but it is bring cloaked in pretensions about values on both sides.
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You have to pay for insulin!?Alistair said:
https://twitter.com/carlzimmer/status/1084598280712003584?s=19Morris_Dancer said:Good morning, everyone.
I do feel sorry for those who aren't getting paid.
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Poor thread, I'm afraid Alastair. Not a single detail of what was actually done just platitudes.AlastairMeeks said:
This thread illustrates a point that I have made rather often in relation to Brexit:El_Capitano said:Morning all.
The Welsh Assembly storm-in-a-teacup is getting interesting, chiefly because it risks widening the (currently narrowly-held) perception of May as a habitual liar and, on this particular issue, a hypocrite. About the one thing she has left going for her is that her personal qualities appear to have been sustaining her "best PM" numbers. If she's widely characterised as a liar that may not survive.
https://twitter.com/RWynJones/status/1084721238809997313
One day Leavers will accept it. But not yet, I expect.0 -
Precisely the same feigned outrage about trump recognising jurusalem as the capital of Israel and relocating the US embassy there. Then a video came out that seems to show every presidential candidate since Nixon had made the same commitment...kle4 said:
and later democrats backed various fencing I believe.CD13 said:In a recent TV documentary, was surprised to discover that Clinton had already built some of the wall.
"The first major federal move towards constructing a border fence began in 1993, when Bill Clinton signed off on Operations Safeguard and Hold the Line, which authorized the construction of fencing along the border in Arizona and Texas respectively. A third installment, Operation Gatekeeper, was authorized in 1994 for the construction of fencing along the border in California. Collectively, these three operations were enacted with the intent to stem illegal immigration and drug trafficking from Latin America."
Ah, but this was a cuddly, concrete wall aimed at supporting diversity.
It is why this seems purely a dispute about money and effectiveness but it is bring cloaked in pretensions about values on both sides.0 -
https://www.behindthebastards.com/podcasts/the-bastards-that-kill-diabetics-for-a-profit.htmkle4 said:
You have to pay for insulin!?Alistair said:
https://twitter.com/carlzimmer/status/1084598280712003584?s=19Morris_Dancer said:Good morning, everyone.
I do feel sorry for those who aren't getting paid.
This is a great podcast in general, but the insulin episode is especially interesting.0 -
Hmm. Odds on a second referendum on Ladbrokes have shortened a little, from 2.75 to 2.5.
There's also a seat band market for those backing May's Deal. It's 50 seats each, rather than Betfair's 10. 200-249 is the favourite at 1.66.0 -
I will have to listen when I can. It never occurred to me people would be charged for something like insulin.148grss said:
https://www.behindthebastards.com/podcasts/the-bastards-that-kill-diabetics-for-a-profit.htmkle4 said:
You have to pay for insulin!?Alistair said:
https://twitter.com/carlzimmer/status/1084598280712003584?s=19Morris_Dancer said:Good morning, everyone.
I do feel sorry for those who aren't getting paid.
This is a great podcast in general, but the insulin episode is especially interesting.0 -
American healthcare. The envy of the world....... not!kle4 said:
You have to pay for insulin!?Alistair said:
https://twitter.com/carlzimmer/status/1084598280712003584?s=19Morris_Dancer said:Good morning, everyone.
I do feel sorry for those who aren't getting paid.0 -
Still slightly surprises me that in spite of all that there's a hard core that''ll stick with Trump whatever (& just the sort of folk who were & are energised by a Mexico funded wall). I guess this is where having an existing rep for blowhard bullshittery helps.edmundintokyo said:
He didn't mean what he said about Mexico paying for the wall, or about a healthcare plan that would cover everybody with more benefits at lower cost. This was all bullshit.AmpfieldAndy said:There is not a lot to admire about Trump but he means what he says and delivers, or tries to, on his campaign pledges, even the stupid ones like trade wars. He means what he says about the wall and he is not afraid to court unpopularity to deliver.U.K. politicians might have nicer table manners and be free of Trumps character flaws but they show nowhere near the same honesty of intent.
'Hey, these were Donald promises, if they come off well & good, if not so what; I'm sure he meant them at the time.'0 -
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Just reading the Wikipedia entry on the 1997 Welsh Devolution Referendum, it sounds like the key compromise came before the vote:
There was no inter-party Constitutional Convention in Wales to define devolution as there had been in Scotland. Labour's initial proposal to elect a Welsh Assembly using the traditional first-past-the-post system was reversed in late 1996 in favour of the Additional Member System. This change was vital in order to gain the support of Plaid Cymru and the Welsh Liberal Democrats in the event of a referendum.
Of course, as we all know, the AMS in Wales delivers very nicely for Labour.0 -
Quite.IanB2 said:The graph appears to contradict the lead.
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I think that's right, and Trump seems perfectly credible in that sense. Jacob Rees-Mogg is perhaps an extreme test of the theory - he seems authentic enough, but authentically archaic. People like his generally polite manner but nurse doubts about his suitability for high office.Nigelb said:
Actually, I think authenticity yptends to be the determining factor for successful politicians - whether it’s Thatcher or the new congresswoman Ocasio-Cortez.NickPalmer said:A linguist's analysis of the Warren beer "disaster":
https://www.theatlantic.com/entertainment/archive/2019/01/why-elizabeth-warrens-beer-moment-fell-flat/579544/
It's a profoundly silly affair, but probably quite a good analysis of how personality politics works and the dangers of "false authenticity". I'm convinced that people don't much mind whether someone is like them - what they want to know is whether someone cares about them.
Trump is an obvious counterexample, but even he is true to his appalling self (and nothing else).
Mind you, Hillary was pretty credible as a remote, cerebral establishment liberal, with few attempts to be folksy, and she got criticised for that. As the article says, if people want to get you they'll find an angle.0 -
Betfair's favourite band for Ayes has moved from 220-230 to 230-240. The implied majority against has moved from 165 to 145.Morris_Dancer said:Hmm. Odds on a second referendum on Ladbrokes have shortened a little, from 2.75 to 2.5.
There's also a seat band market for those backing May's Deal. It's 50 seats each, rather than Betfair's 10. 200-249 is the favourite at 1.66.0 -
They tried this back on December 2017, it didn't work then and it won't work now.williamglenn said:0 -
Democrats already passed a bill that funded the wall last Congress but Trump vetoed it because it wasn't racist enough. Seriously.kle4 said:
and later democrats backed various fencing I believe.CD13 said:In a recent TV documentary, was surprised to discover that Clinton had already built some of the wall.
"The first major federal move towards constructing a border fence began in 1993, when Bill Clinton signed off on Operations Safeguard and Hold the Line, which authorized the construction of fencing along the border in Arizona and Texas respectively. A third installment, Operation Gatekeeper, was authorized in 1994 for the construction of fencing along the border in California. Collectively, these three operations were enacted with the intent to stem illegal immigration and drug trafficking from Latin America."
Ah, but this was a cuddly, concrete wall aimed at supporting diversity.
It is why this seems purely a dispute about money and effectiveness but it is bring cloaked in pretensions about values on both sides.
Trump's Wall isn't about an actual wall, it is about racsim.0 -
If a hard Brexit happens and we're forced to. become Trumps poodle at least we know one politician who will fight it all the way. Corbyn is rapidly starting to look more appealing. Can you imagine a Johnson/ Trump alliance without the cushion of the EU?0
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In other words May has achieved the square root of f**k all since the vote was delayed and a month has been wasted for nothing whatsoever.Alistair said:
They tried this back on December 2017, it didn't work then and it won't work now.williamglenn said:
Makes a complete mockery of the idea there was no time for a leadership vote. We could have held a leadership election by now and it could have been May's successor trying to move things along already in the time she's wasted to do absolutely nothing.0 -
May has thus in the bag. Not.Barnesian said:
Betfair's favourite band for Ayes has moved from 220-230 to 230-240. The implied majority against has moved from 165 to 145.Morris_Dancer said:Hmm. Odds on a second referendum on Ladbrokes have shortened a little, from 2.75 to 2.5.
There's also a seat band market for those backing May's Deal. It's 50 seats each, rather than Betfair's 10. 200-249 is the favourite at 1.66.
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snip0
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Remind me please how much help the "cushion of the EU" was in preventing the Blair/Bush alliance from invading Iraq?Roger said:If a hard Brexit happens and we're forced to. become Trumps poodle at least we know one politician who will fight it all the way. Corbyn is rapidly starting to look more appealing. Can you imagine a Johnson/ Trump alliance without the cushion of the EU?
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I'm sure that the population of Stoke will take great notice of a jet setting ad exec from the south of France. It's this kind of patronising attitude that led to these communities being ignored and voting to leave. Should Stoke's voice be any less valid than Islington or Glasgow?Roger said:70% of Stoke voted to Leave.
I think they misunderstood the question0 -
Trump is a leader and his base are followers. Witness the way white evangelicals suddenly felt it was okay for the president to be unfaithful to his wife and lie once Trump became the nominee.Theuniondivvie said:
Still slightly surprises me that in spite of all that there's a hard core that''ll stick with Trump whatever (& just the sort of folk who were & are energised by a Mexico funded wall). I guess this is where having an existing rep for blowhard bullshittery helps.edmundintokyo said:
He didn't mean what he said about Mexico paying for the wall, or about a healthcare plan that would cover everybody with more benefits at lower cost. This was all bullshit.AmpfieldAndy said:There is not a lot to admire about Trump but he means what he says and delivers, or tries to, on his campaign pledges, even the stupid ones like trade wars. He means what he says about the wall and he is not afraid to court unpopularity to deliver.U.K. politicians might have nicer table manners and be free of Trumps character flaws but they show nowhere near the same honesty of intent.
'Hey, these were Donald promises, if they come off well & good, if not so what; I'm sure he meant them at the time.'0 -
Trump's net disapproval rating has moved out to 14% which is worse than the previous 12 presidents at this point in their presidency according to fivethirtyeight.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval-ratings/
The latest YouGov poll showed an adjusted net disapproval of 19%.0 -
Brexit perhaps?AmpfieldAndy said:There is not a lot to admire about Trump but he means what he says and delivers, or tries to, on his campaign pledges, even the stupid ones like trade wars. He means what he says about the wall and he is not afraid to court unpopularity to deliver.U.K. politicians might have nicer table manners and be free of Trumps character flaws but they show nowhere near the same honesty of intent.
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Very well saidNemtynakht said:
I'm sure that the population of Stoke will take great notice of a jet setting ad exec from the south of France. It's this kind of patronising attitude that led to these communities being ignored and voting to leave. Should Stoke's voice be any less valid than Islington or Glasgow?Roger said:70% of Stoke voted to Leave.
I think they misunderstood the question0 -
So Mexico is going to pay for the wall with a cheque or not?AmpfieldAndy said:There is not a lot to admire about Trump but he means what he says and delivers, or tries to, on his campaign pledges, even the stupid ones like trade wars. He means what he says about the wall and he is not afraid to court unpopularity to deliver.U.K. politicians might have nicer table manners and be free of Trumps character flaws but they show nowhere near the same honesty of intent.
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Trump's authenticity was that he was a consummate deal maker and a businessman who got thing done. In fact he's a lousy deal maker. If he were any good, the wall would be half built by now. NNigelb said:
Actually, I think authenticity yptends to be the determining factor for successful politicians - whether it’s Thatcher or the new congresswoman Ocasio-Cortez.NickPalmer said:A linguist's analysis of the Warren beer "disaster":
https://www.theatlantic.com/entertainment/archive/2019/01/why-elizabeth-warrens-beer-moment-fell-flat/579544/
It's a profoundly silly affair, but probably quite a good analysis of how personality politics works and the dangers of "false authenticity". I'm convinced that people don't much mind whether someone is like them - what they want to know is whether someone cares about them.
Trump is an obvious counterexample, but even he is true to his appalling self (and nothing else).
Few cared one way or the other about walls until Trump made it into an issue. His other authenticity was that he told things as they are. Actually he's the biggest liar ever to occupy the White House0 -
Not dissimiliar to Reagen and Clinton though.Barnesian said:Trump's net disapproval rating has moved out to 14% which is worse than the previous 12 presidents at this point in their presidency according to fivethirtyeight.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval-ratings/
The latest YouGov poll showed an adjusted net disapproval of 19%.0 -
Still not totally convinced the vote will actually take place tomorrow night.kle4 said:
May has thus in the bag. Not.Barnesian said:
Betfair's favourite band for Ayes has moved from 220-230 to 230-240. The implied majority against has moved from 165 to 145.Morris_Dancer said:Hmm. Odds on a second referendum on Ladbrokes have shortened a little, from 2.75 to 2.5.
There's also a seat band market for those backing May's Deal. It's 50 seats each, rather than Betfair's 10. 200-249 is the favourite at 1.66.
Some were saying last night that it looked like May was preparing to call for a GE after her expected defeat in tomorrow's vote. Would she really want to go to the country on the back of a resounding Commons defeat?
If she really intends to go for GE, there is still plenty of time for her to take back control and pull the vote, avoiding the humiliation of perhaps a crushing defeat.
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On topic, Trump doesn’t want the wall he wants to be seen to be fighting for the wall. The aim being to keep the “base” fired up ready to be used to threaten a primary against any Rebuplican Senators who show signs of challenging Trump in any way. Look out for the first R senator up in 2020 to say “bring it on” when threatened with a primary, at that point the end is nigh for Trump.0
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Boris Johnson is basically the definition of false authenticity - yet remains very popular with his target audience.NickPalmer said:
I think that's right, and Trump seems perfectly credible in that sense. Jacob Rees-Mogg is perhaps an extreme test of the theory - he seems authentic enough, but authentically archaic. People like his generally polite manner but nurse doubts about his suitability for high office.Nigelb said:
Actually, I think authenticity yptends to be the determining factor for successful politicians - whether it’s Thatcher or the new congresswoman Ocasio-Cortez.NickPalmer said:A linguist's analysis of the Warren beer "disaster":
https://www.theatlantic.com/entertainment/archive/2019/01/why-elizabeth-warrens-beer-moment-fell-flat/579544/
It's a profoundly silly affair, but probably quite a good analysis of how personality politics works and the dangers of "false authenticity". I'm convinced that people don't much mind whether someone is like them - what they want to know is whether someone cares about them.
Trump is an obvious counterexample, but even he is true to his appalling self (and nothing else).
Mind you, Hillary was pretty credible as a remote, cerebral establishment liberal, with few attempts to be folksy, and she got criticised for that. As the article says, if people want to get you they'll find an angle.
Warren is seen as an elitist liberal professor (perhaps), but really was born in Oklahoma and actually has done a lot to 'look after the little guy'. Her problem is not false authenticity, but the perception of false authenticity.0 -
Does the Grieve amendment (or any other) prevent May kicking tomorrow's event to "tomorrow" again?0
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That's true. Reagan and Clinton's approval ratings slowly improved from this point in their presidency. Trump's is moving in the opposite direction.Pulpstar said:
Not dissimiliar to Reagen and Clinton though.Barnesian said:Trump's net disapproval rating has moved out to 14% which is worse than the previous 12 presidents at this point in their presidency according to fivethirtyeight.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval-ratings/
The latest YouGov poll showed an adjusted net disapproval of 19%.
It is striking for an incumbent president that Betfair has Trump's probability of getting a second term at only 30%.0 -
Off topic; so how would a GE work then, in terms of resolving Brexit? I live in a marginally Leave voting constituency with a Remain campaigning MP (Chief Whip) with a huge majority who has been working to get May’s deal adopted. The local activists whom I talk to now despise their MP because he has supported the deal.
So what happens? He remains the candidate but the activists stay at home? The activists work on behalf of an independent Conservative or UKIP candidate? He is deselected in favour of a purist candidate who vows not to support any deal with a backstop?
And what about constituencies with an ERG MP? Does CCHQ step in and replace them with someone who vows to support the deal (which presumably would be the only chapter in the manifesto) If not, what’s the point?0 -
Indeed. May has delivered a dishonest assessment, but not more dishonest than our posters from North Essex and the Oxfordshire.tlg86 said:Just reading the Wikipedia entry on the 1997 Welsh Devolution Referendum, it sounds like the key compromise came before the vote:
There was no inter-party Constitutional Convention in Wales to define devolution as there had been in Scotland. Labour's initial proposal to elect a Welsh Assembly using the traditional first-past-the-post system was reversed in late 1996 in favour of the Additional Member System. This change was vital in order to gain the support of Plaid Cymru and the Welsh Liberal Democrats in the event of a referendum.
Of course, as we all know, the AMS in Wales delivers very nicely for Labour.
More to the point, how successful has the Welsh Assembly been ?
Well, if you are a Labour mediocrity from England, it has been very successful (Remember the Chair of Welsh Labour lives in Bolton).
It has provided an opportunity for such nomarks to pocket easy money and be big fishes in a smaller pond, which to most of them is just western Britain anyway.
So the Labour Party (part of which was once very strongly opposed to devolution) is now strongly in favour. Last time I saw, Labour wanted to double the size of the Welsh Assembly to increase job opportunities for pipsqueak bootlickers and box tickers from England.
For Wales and the Welsh people, continuous Labour Governments have proved disastrous. Wales is now poorer than it was in 1999 -- despite the huge tankers of EU money that Remainers assure us is delivered regularly to the Welsh people.
Why has there been continuous Labour Government? It is because Labour can achieve a majority on 34.7 per cent of the vote. The "consensual" process by which the Welsh Assembly was set up has led to a one-party state, with all the familiar and dreadful problems that that engenders,
Don't dare brag about the success of the consensus that led to the Welsh Assembly, especially if you rarely set foot in Wales. There is absolutely nothing to brag about.0 -
American politicians don't tend to soul-search very much, do they?
Just think how bad Hillary was as a candidate if she lost to Trump. Her campaign always felt like … "It's my turn to be President because I'm Bill's wife and I'm female." Nepotism worthy of a somewhere like Somalia.0 -
Blair was/is of course a Tory. The point has merit, actually. In my mind, I can see Corbyn telling Trump to eff off, should it be necessary to do so, far more easily and quickly than any Cons PM.Philip_Thompson said:
Remind me please how much help the "cushion of the EU" was in preventing the Blair/Bush alliance from invading Iraq?Roger said:If a hard Brexit happens and we're forced to. become Trumps poodle at least we know one politician who will fight it all the way. Corbyn is rapidly starting to look more appealing. Can you imagine a Johnson/ Trump alliance without the cushion of the EU?
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Andy Murray going down the drain quicker than the Boles/Letwin/Bercow coup..
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Surely Bercow can make up a new rule interpreting "tomorrow" as "immediately"?Philip_Thompson said:Does the Grieve amendment (or any other) prevent May kicking tomorrow's event to "tomorrow" again?
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is there an over/under market?Barnesian said:
Betfair's favourite band for Ayes has moved from 220-230 to 230-240. The implied majority against has moved from 165 to 145.Morris_Dancer said:Hmm. Odds on a second referendum on Ladbrokes have shortened a little, from 2.75 to 2.5.
There's also a seat band market for those backing May's Deal. It's 50 seats each, rather than Betfair's 10. 200-249 is the favourite at 1.66.0 -
The Speaker would go ballistic. He might ignore convention and establish a new precedent that the government cannot unilaterally overturn a business motion that has been approved by the house. It would be a real constitutional crisis. Which side would the Queen and her Army be on?Philip_Thompson said:Does the Grieve amendment (or any other) prevent May kicking tomorrow's event to "tomorrow" again?
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Well indeed. If May trys to put her plan in a manifesto then it's going to be unworkable. Likewise, how any of the rebels. Grieve et-al can sign up for a EU withdrawal now is stupid.Rexel56 said:Off topic; so how would a GE work then, in terms of resolving Brexit? I live in a marginally Leave voting constituency with a Remain campaigning MP (Chief Whip) with a huge majority who has been working to get May’s deal adopted. The local activists whom I talk to now despise their MP because he has supported the deal.
So what happens? He remains the candidate but the activists stay at home? The activists work on behalf of an independent Conservative or UKIP candidate? He is deselected in favour of a purist candidate who vows not to support any deal with a backstop?
And what about constituencies with an ERG MP? Does CCHQ step in and replace them with someone who vows to support the deal (which presumably would be the only chapter in the manifesto) If not, what’s the point?
(but hey they signed up for it when they had the last election, so who the f-knows...)0 -
Yep, I had that in mind also. It's striking how those who claim loudly & publicly to have very strong moral principles let those principles evaporate quicker than snow aff a dyke at the first sniff of a culture war. If I weren't such an idealistic optimist, that sort of thing might turn me into a cynic.Alistair said:
Trump is a leader and his base are followers. Witness the way white evangelicals suddenly felt it was okay for the president to be unfaithful to his wife and lie once Trump became the nominee.Theuniondivvie said:
Still slightly surprises me that in spite of all that there's a hard core that''ll stick with Trump whatever (& just the sort of folk who were & are energised by a Mexico funded wall). I guess this is where having an existing rep for blowhard bullshittery helps.edmundintokyo said:
He didn't mean what he said about Mexico paying for the wall, or about a healthcare plan that would cover everybody with more benefits at lower cost. This was all bullshit.AmpfieldAndy said:There is not a lot to admire about Trump but he means what he says and delivers, or tries to, on his campaign pledges, even the stupid ones like trade wars. He means what he says about the wall and he is not afraid to court unpopularity to deliver.U.K. politicians might have nicer table manners and be free of Trumps character flaws but they show nowhere near the same honesty of intent.
'Hey, these were Donald promises, if they come off well & good, if not so what; I'm sure he meant them at the time.'0 -
Not on Betfair that I can see. I'll look on Oddschecker.TheWhiteRabbit said:
is there an over/under market?Barnesian said:
Betfair's favourite band for Ayes has moved from 220-230 to 230-240. The implied majority against has moved from 165 to 145.Morris_Dancer said:Hmm. Odds on a second referendum on Ladbrokes have shortened a little, from 2.75 to 2.5.
There's also a seat band market for those backing May's Deal. It's 50 seats each, rather than Betfair's 10. 200-249 is the favourite at 1.66.0 -
O/T
Sad news: the mayor of Cambridge has passed away while on holiday in South Africa.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-cambridgeshire-468551190 -
Quite. I fail to see how the Tories could conceivably have May's deal as their manifesto commitment, if around a third of their sitting MP's have already rejected it.Rexel56 said:Off topic; so how would a GE work then, in terms of resolving Brexit? I live in a marginally Leave voting constituency with a Remain campaigning MP (Chief Whip) with a huge majority who has been working to get May’s deal adopted. The local activists whom I talk to now despise their MP because he has supported the deal.
So what happens? He remains the candidate but the activists stay at home? The activists work on behalf of an independent Conservative or UKIP candidate? He is deselected in favour of a purist candidate who vows not to support any deal with a backstop?
And what about constituencies with an ERG MP? Does CCHQ step in and replace them with someone who vows to support the deal (which presumably would be the only chapter in the manifesto) If not, what’s the point?0 -
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And how are they going to force the EU to comply?TGOHF said:0 -
Not exactly, given that she won the nomination by getting the most votes.CD13 said:American politicians don't tend to soul-search very much, do they?
Just think how bad Hillary was as a candidate if she lost to Trump. Her campaign always felt like … "It's my turn to be President because I'm Bill's wife and I'm female." Nepotism worthy of a somewhere like Somalia.
Whether one likes her or not, and I don't particularly, it's arguably less nepotistic than the careers of some of our politicians' offspring.0 -
Corbyn may but the EU is immaterial to the discussion.TOPPING said:
Blair was/is of course a Tory. The point has merit, actually. In my mind, I can see Corbyn telling Trump to eff off, should it be necessary to do so, far more easily and quickly than any Cons PM.Philip_Thompson said:
Remind me please how much help the "cushion of the EU" was in preventing the Blair/Bush alliance from invading Iraq?Roger said:If a hard Brexit happens and we're forced to. become Trumps poodle at least we know one politician who will fight it all the way. Corbyn is rapidly starting to look more appealing. Can you imagine a Johnson/ Trump alliance without the cushion of the EU?
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