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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The weekend polling suggest that Trump is losing voter support
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The weekend polling suggest that Trump is losing voter support in the battle of “The Wall”
With the US government shutdown continuing and 800k federal workers not getting their salary cheques on Friday there’s no sign of an end to what is totally dominating US politics. Basically Trump has shut down large parts of the federal government to put pressure on the Democrats to provide funding for a wall along the whole of the Mexican-US border. This was a key Trump WH2016 campaign pledge when he said the Mexicans would pay. That, as you’d expect has not been forthcoming.
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https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1084633230467309569
https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1084647050208333825
https://twitter.com/tconnellyRTE/status/1084697585649102848
https://twitter.com/tconnellyRTE/status/1084697587456856066
https://www.theatlantic.com/entertainment/archive/2019/01/why-elizabeth-warrens-beer-moment-fell-flat/579544/
It's a profoundly silly affair, but probably quite a good analysis of how personality politics works and the dangers of "false authenticity". I'm convinced that people don't much mind whether someone is like them - what they want to know is whether someone cares about them.
Edited; due to poor eyesight & small type!
Nonetheless Trumpland is a bonkers place!
I'll get my coat.
Have a good morning.
The Wall Trump wants to build is racism. He want 5 billion dollars to fund racism.
This is one of those figuratively / literally moments.
Trump is an obvious counterexample, but even he is true to his appalling self (and nothing else).
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jan/14/uk-jobs-boom-strongest-in-south-yorkshire-and-merseyside-thinktank-finds
I am pretty sure that Brexit will do little or nothing to aid the regions in decline. And less than nothing to insulate them from any negative effects.
I think they misunderstood the question
I do feel sorry for those who aren't getting paid.
Anyway, partisanship is a hell of a drug.
Edit: found citation:
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/trump-shutdown-latest-border-wall-poll-support-tweets-republicans-democrats-graham-pelosi-a8726206.html
The Welsh Assembly storm-in-a-teacup is getting interesting, chiefly because it risks widening the (currently narrowly-held) perception of May as a habitual liar and, on this particular issue, a hypocrite. About the one thing she has left going for her is that her personal qualities appear to have been sustaining her "best PM" numbers. If she's widely characterised as a liar that may not survive.
https://twitter.com/RWynJones/status/1084721238809997313
One day Leavers will accept it. But not yet, I expect.
Trump has a better shot at hisxwall than brexit does of happening.
We'll see Trump's figures when the economy has had time to react to them.
"The first major federal move towards constructing a border fence began in 1993, when Bill Clinton signed off on Operations Safeguard and Hold the Line, which authorized the construction of fencing along the border in Arizona and Texas respectively. A third installment, Operation Gatekeeper, was authorized in 1994 for the construction of fencing along the border in California. Collectively, these three operations were enacted with the intent to stem illegal immigration and drug trafficking from Latin America."
Ah, but this was a cuddly, concrete wall aimed at supporting diversity.
It is why this seems purely a dispute about money and effectiveness but it is bring cloaked in pretensions about values on both sides.
This is a great podcast in general, but the insulin episode is especially interesting.
There's also a seat band market for those backing May's Deal. It's 50 seats each, rather than Betfair's 10. 200-249 is the favourite at 1.66.
'Hey, these were Donald promises, if they come off well & good, if not so what; I'm sure he meant them at the time.'
https://publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm201719/cmagenda/OP190114.pdf
There was no inter-party Constitutional Convention in Wales to define devolution as there had been in Scotland. Labour's initial proposal to elect a Welsh Assembly using the traditional first-past-the-post system was reversed in late 1996 in favour of the Additional Member System. This change was vital in order to gain the support of Plaid Cymru and the Welsh Liberal Democrats in the event of a referendum.
Of course, as we all know, the AMS in Wales delivers very nicely for Labour.
Mind you, Hillary was pretty credible as a remote, cerebral establishment liberal, with few attempts to be folksy, and she got criticised for that. As the article says, if people want to get you they'll find an angle.
Trump's Wall isn't about an actual wall, it is about racsim.
Makes a complete mockery of the idea there was no time for a leadership vote. We could have held a leadership election by now and it could have been May's successor trying to move things along already in the time she's wasted to do absolutely nothing.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval-ratings/
The latest YouGov poll showed an adjusted net disapproval of 19%.
Few cared one way or the other about walls until Trump made it into an issue. His other authenticity was that he told things as they are. Actually he's the biggest liar ever to occupy the White House
Some were saying last night that it looked like May was preparing to call for a GE after her expected defeat in tomorrow's vote. Would she really want to go to the country on the back of a resounding Commons defeat?
If she really intends to go for GE, there is still plenty of time for her to take back control and pull the vote, avoiding the humiliation of perhaps a crushing defeat.
Warren is seen as an elitist liberal professor (perhaps), but really was born in Oklahoma and actually has done a lot to 'look after the little guy'. Her problem is not false authenticity, but the perception of false authenticity.
It is striking for an incumbent president that Betfair has Trump's probability of getting a second term at only 30%.
So what happens? He remains the candidate but the activists stay at home? The activists work on behalf of an independent Conservative or UKIP candidate? He is deselected in favour of a purist candidate who vows not to support any deal with a backstop?
And what about constituencies with an ERG MP? Does CCHQ step in and replace them with someone who vows to support the deal (which presumably would be the only chapter in the manifesto) If not, what’s the point?
More to the point, how successful has the Welsh Assembly been ?
Well, if you are a Labour mediocrity from England, it has been very successful (Remember the Chair of Welsh Labour lives in Bolton).
It has provided an opportunity for such nomarks to pocket easy money and be big fishes in a smaller pond, which to most of them is just western Britain anyway.
So the Labour Party (part of which was once very strongly opposed to devolution) is now strongly in favour. Last time I saw, Labour wanted to double the size of the Welsh Assembly to increase job opportunities for pipsqueak bootlickers and box tickers from England.
For Wales and the Welsh people, continuous Labour Governments have proved disastrous. Wales is now poorer than it was in 1999 -- despite the huge tankers of EU money that Remainers assure us is delivered regularly to the Welsh people.
Why has there been continuous Labour Government? It is because Labour can achieve a majority on 34.7 per cent of the vote. The "consensual" process by which the Welsh Assembly was set up has led to a one-party state, with all the familiar and dreadful problems that that engenders,
Don't dare brag about the success of the consensus that led to the Welsh Assembly, especially if you rarely set foot in Wales. There is absolutely nothing to brag about.
Just think how bad Hillary was as a candidate if she lost to Trump. Her campaign always felt like … "It's my turn to be President because I'm Bill's wife and I'm female." Nepotism worthy of a somewhere like Somalia.
(but hey they signed up for it when they had the last election, so who the f-knows...)
Sad news: the mayor of Cambridge has passed away while on holiday in South Africa.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-cambridgeshire-46855119
https://twitter.com/PeteWishart/status/1084741772528533505
Whether one likes her or not, and I don't particularly, it's arguably less nepotistic than the careers of some of our politicians' offspring.