politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Why the Brexit divisions are here to stay
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And the DUP confirmed tonight they will be voting with the government in any such voteGardenwalker said:Guardian is reporting that Labour MPs are told to expect a no confidence vote to be tabled as early as Tuesday evening, and the vote itself on the Wednesday.
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It is if A50 is revoked. How that happens is another matterFloater said:
Not over by a long way.Big_G_NorthWales said:
By that act we remain and it is all overTheScreamingEagles said:
Once we revoke Article 50 we will hold all the aces. I see only sunlit uplands.kle4 said:
Absent a deal, which no one can agree on, the only way to do that is Remaining, which will only take a single vote in the Commons presumably so it can be a very short short term indeed.TheScreamingEagles said:
Avoiding No Deal, that's the short term goal.kle4 said:
And how exactly is Brexit sorted out in the short term? How long is short term?TheScreamingEagles said:
It'll be a short term arrangement to sort out Brexit.Black_Rook said:
Do you think we're getting to the realignment stage, or is there some means you can discern that stops short of that?TheScreamingEagles said:
Government of temporary National Unity.DanSmith said:
Blimey. Dunno if it's game over for Brexit but it's game over for May.TheScreamingEagles said:
Remember you heard it here first.
How does the Conservative Party survive the decision of the pro-EU wing to topple it's own Prime Minister without splitting - and would such action provide a convenient opportunity for the centre-Left to break away from Corbyn?
Whilst the likes of Anna Soubry, Vince Cable, and Chuka Umunna might agree on Brexit they don't agree on things like tax and the size of the government, so it won't work long term.0 -
Well yes. It is getting late but thank youviewcode said:
Hackers? You've been looking at that Internet thing again, haven't you...Big_G_NorthWales said:The problem is local constituencies can override GCHQ...
[or did you mean CCHQ?]0 -
That's how it looks to me - the source is clearly in the loyalist part of the Cabinet. Like you I wouldn't have thought that it's very plausible or that it would shake many ERGers.El_Capitano said:So both the ST and the MoS have this story. How convenient.
Come on. This is a Downing Street plant to frighten reluctant ERGers into backing her. The thrust of the story is “Dominic Grieve knows his way around parliamentary procedure and is trying to use it to thwart Brexit”, which is somewhere between “bears shit in the woods” and “PB has some colourful local election candidates as commenters” in the gosh-wow stakes.
If the ERG fall for this they are even more gullible than I thought, and that’s saying something.0 -
Incidentally, the BMG figure of 12% for LibDems and 5% for Greens does seem to show some movement to explicitly Remain parties. A bit ironical as the Greens were anti-EU at the same time that Corbyn was, and for the same reasons.0
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what a tool john rentoul is0
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Sure. But after a VONC, Labour are pledged to support a referendum.Big_G_NorthWales said:
And the DUP confirmed tonight they will be voting with the government in any such voteGardenwalker said:Guardian is reporting that Labour MPs are told to expect a no confidence vote to be tabled as early as Tuesday evening, and the vote itself on the Wednesday.
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On expelling why expel the remainers rather than the hard brexiteers or vice versaMarqueeMark said:
But if the MPs are expelled from the Party, they can't be candidates.... There would HAVE to be new candidates put in place.Big_G_NorthWales said:
The problem is local constituencies can override GCHQ and there is no time to select new candidates if there is an early electionMarqueeMark said:A lot of talk of secret plots. MPs running amok. The PMs authority on the line.
But in all this, I presume she still controls the Conservative Party. She has won a mandate from the Parliamentary Party. At what point does she start imposing automatic deselection on rebels? To take effect forthwith, then call a new general election stacked with Tory candidates who are pledged to passing her deal if elected? It's what Corbyn wants, we are told..... And ERG - piss or get off the pot.
That would be interesting.....
However, report tonight that Dominic Grieve is under lots of pressure from his constituency chairman and members. Maybe he needs to go and live in his French property0 -
Uncharacteristically snide.Big_G_NorthWales said:
On expelling why expel the remainers rather than the hard brexiteers or vice versaMarqueeMark said:
But if the MPs are expelled from the Party, they can't be candidates.... There would HAVE to be new candidates put in place.Big_G_NorthWales said:
The problem is local constituencies can override GCHQ and there is no time to select new candidates if there is an early electionMarqueeMark said:A lot of talk of secret plots. MPs running amok. The PMs authority on the line.
But in all this, I presume she still controls the Conservative Party. She has won a mandate from the Parliamentary Party. At what point does she start imposing automatic deselection on rebels? To take effect forthwith, then call a new general election stacked with Tory candidates who are pledged to passing her deal if elected? It's what Corbyn wants, we are told..... And ERG - piss or get off the pot.
That would be interesting.....
However, report tonight that Dominic Grieve is under lots of pressure from his constituency chairman and members. Maybe he needs to go and live in his French property
Grieve’s electorate voted REMAIN, and Grieve is doing a wonderful job keeping the government honest.0 -
It should not concern him. He clearly believes that fighting Brexit, no matter what, is what he must do. All that remains to be seen is, if May does not pivot to a second referendum, will Grieve do what he must and vote with the opposition to bring down the government. I know people say no Tories would, but Grieve cares so much about Remaining, fanatically so, would he truly not take that step if that is what it took to remain?Big_G_NorthWales said:
On expelling why expel the remainers rather than the hard brexiteers or vice versaMarqueeMark said:
But if the MPs are expelled from the Party, they can't be candidates.... There would HAVE to be new candidates put in place.Big_G_NorthWales said:
The problem is local constituencies can override GCHQ and there is no time to select new candidates if there is an early electionMarqueeMark said:A lot of talk of secret plots. MPs running amok. The PMs authority on the line.
But in all this, I presume she still controls the Conservative Party. She has won a mandate from the Parliamentary Party. At what point does she start imposing automatic deselection on rebels? To take effect forthwith, then call a new general election stacked with Tory candidates who are pledged to passing her deal if elected? It's what Corbyn wants, we are told..... And ERG - piss or get off the pot.
That would be interesting.....
However, report tonight that Dominic Grieve is under lots of pressure from his constituency chairman and members. Maybe he needs to go and live in his French property0 -
Have you asked Jeremy or the 18 labour mps from leave areas who reject a second referendumGardenwalker said:
Sure. But after a VONC, Labour are pledged to support a referendum.Big_G_NorthWales said:
And the DUP confirmed tonight they will be voting with the government in any such voteGardenwalker said:Guardian is reporting that Labour MPs are told to expect a no confidence vote to be tabled as early as Tuesday evening, and the vote itself on the Wednesday.
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I look forward to being vindicated in expecting Corbyn to do so. It's party policy to keep everything open (in opposition to a Tory Brexit). Why would he not support a referendum once his official chance of delivering a better Brexit or getting a GE are over?Gardenwalker said:
Sure. But after a VONC, Labour are pledged to support a referendum.Big_G_NorthWales said:
And the DUP confirmed tonight they will be voting with the government in any such voteGardenwalker said:Guardian is reporting that Labour MPs are told to expect a no confidence vote to be tabled as early as Tuesday evening, and the vote itself on the Wednesday.
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But May has said she won't lead the Tories in the next GE. The new Tory leader might have other ideas.MarqueeMark said:A lot of talk of secret plots. MPs running amok. The PMs authority on the line.
But in all this, I presume she still controls the Conservative Party. She has won a mandate from the Parliamentary Party. At what point does she start imposing automatic deselection on rebels? To take effect forthwith, then call a new general election stacked with Tory candidates who are pledged to passing her deal if elected? It's what Corbyn wants, we are told..... And ERG - piss or get off the pot.
That would be interesting.....0 -
But not his constituency chairman or members. Not really snide, he has a French honour, a French home, and wants to stop brexit even though the manifesto he was elected on supported brexitGardenwalker said:
Uncharacteristically snide.Big_G_NorthWales said:
On expelling why expel the remainers rather than the hard brexiteers or vice versaMarqueeMark said:
But if the MPs are expelled from the Party, they can't be candidates.... There would HAVE to be new candidates put in place.Big_G_NorthWales said:
The problem is local constituencies can override GCHQ and there is no time to select new candidates if there is an early electionMarqueeMark said:A lot of talk of secret plots. MPs running amok. The PMs authority on the line.
But in all this, I presume she still controls the Conservative Party. She has won a mandate from the Parliamentary Party. At what point does she start imposing automatic deselection on rebels? To take effect forthwith, then call a new general election stacked with Tory candidates who are pledged to passing her deal if elected? It's what Corbyn wants, we are told..... And ERG - piss or get off the pot.
That would be interesting.....
However, report tonight that Dominic Grieve is under lots of pressure from his constituency chairman and members. Maybe he needs to go and live in his French property
Grieve’s electorate voted REMAIN, and Grieve is doing a wonderful job keeping the government honest.0 -
And out of the party on the spotkle4 said:
It should not concern him. He clearly believes that fighting Brexit, no matter what, is what he must do. All that remains to be seen is, if May does not pivot to a second referendum, will Grieve do what he must and vote with the opposition to bring down the government. I know people say no Tories would, but Grieve cares so much about Remaining, fanatically so, would he truly not take that step if that is what it took to remain?Big_G_NorthWales said:
On expelling why expel the remainers rather than the hard brexiteers or vice versaMarqueeMark said:
But if the MPs are expelled from the Party, they can't be candidates.... There would HAVE to be new candidates put in place.Big_G_NorthWales said:
The problem is local constituencies can override GCHQ and there is no time to select new candidates if there is an early electionMarqueeMark said:A lot of talk of secret plots. MPs running amok. The PMs authority on the line.
But in all this, I presume she still controls the Conservative Party. She has won a mandate from the Parliamentary Party. At what point does she start imposing automatic deselection on rebels? To take effect forthwith, then call a new general election stacked with Tory candidates who are pledged to passing her deal if elected? It's what Corbyn wants, we are told..... And ERG - piss or get off the pot.
That would be interesting.....
However, report tonight that Dominic Grieve is under lots of pressure from his constituency chairman and members. Maybe he needs to go and live in his French property0 -
There is a sort of symetry to Major's dying administration when 30 or so on his own side thought getting out of the EU was more important than having a Tory government. Now we have 30 or so Remainers who think the same of Remaining.0
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I can’t see Jeremy U-Turning on this, it is agreed party policy.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Have you asked Jeremy or the 18 labour mps from leave areas who reject a second referendumGardenwalker said:
Sure. But after a VONC, Labour are pledged to support a referendum.Big_G_NorthWales said:
And the DUP confirmed tonight they will be voting with the government in any such voteGardenwalker said:Guardian is reporting that Labour MPs are told to expect a no confidence vote to be tabled as early as Tuesday evening, and the vote itself on the Wednesday.
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Of course, a second referendum could only be held under circumstances which would imply a General Election taking place soon afterwards. So Jeremy would get his General Election.kle4 said:
I look forward to being vindicated in expecting Corbyn to do so. It's party policy to keep everything open (in opposition to a Tory Brexit). Why would he not support a referendum once his official chance of delivering a better Brexit or getting a GE are over?Gardenwalker said:
Sure. But after a VONC, Labour are pledged to support a referendum.Big_G_NorthWales said:
And the DUP confirmed tonight they will be voting with the government in any such voteGardenwalker said:Guardian is reporting that Labour MPs are told to expect a no confidence vote to be tabled as early as Tuesday evening, and the vote itself on the Wednesday.
However, said General Election would also function as a de facto third referendum, which would render the outcome of the second referendum academic.
This is all such a mess.0 -
He wants brexit, always haskle4 said:
I look forward to being vindicated in expecting Corbyn to do so. It's party policy to keep everything open (in opposition to a Tory Brexit). Why would he not support a referendum once his official chance of delivering a better Brexit or getting a GE are over?Gardenwalker said:
Sure. But after a VONC, Labour are pledged to support a referendum.Big_G_NorthWales said:
And the DUP confirmed tonight they will be voting with the government in any such voteGardenwalker said:Guardian is reporting that Labour MPs are told to expect a no confidence vote to be tabled as early as Tuesday evening, and the vote itself on the Wednesday.
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You’re sounding a bit Daily Mail, to be honest.Big_G_NorthWales said:
But not his constituency chairman or members. Not really snide, he has a French honour, a French home, and wants to stop brexit even though the manifesto he was elected on supported brexitGardenwalker said:
Uncharacteristically snide.Big_G_NorthWales said:
On expelling why expel the remainers rather than the hard brexiteers or vice versaMarqueeMark said:
But if the MPs are expelled from the Party, they can't be candidates.... There would HAVE to be new candidates put in place.Big_G_NorthWales said:
The problem is local constituencies can override GCHQ and there is no time to select new candidates if there is an early electionMarqueeMark said:A lot of talk of secret plots. MPs running amok. The PMs authority on the line.
But in all this, I presume she still controls the Conservative Party. She has won a mandate from the Parliamentary Party. At what point does she start imposing automatic deselection on rebels? To take effect forthwith, then call a new general election stacked with Tory candidates who are pledged to passing her deal if elected? It's what Corbyn wants, we are told..... And ERG - piss or get off the pot.
That would be interesting.....
However, report tonight that Dominic Grieve is under lots of pressure from his constituency chairman and members. Maybe he needs to go and live in his French property
Grieve’s electorate voted REMAIN, and Grieve is doing a wonderful job keeping the government honest.0 -
South Bucks voted (narrowly) to Leave.Gardenwalker said:
Uncharacteristically snide.Big_G_NorthWales said:
On expelling why expel the remainers rather than the hard brexiteers or vice versaMarqueeMark said:
But if the MPs are expelled from the Party, they can't be candidates.... There would HAVE to be new candidates put in place.Big_G_NorthWales said:
The problem is local constituencies can override GCHQ and there is no time to select new candidates if there is an early electionMarqueeMark said:A lot of talk of secret plots. MPs running amok. The PMs authority on the line.
But in all this, I presume she still controls the Conservative Party. She has won a mandate from the Parliamentary Party. At what point does she start imposing automatic deselection on rebels? To take effect forthwith, then call a new general election stacked with Tory candidates who are pledged to passing her deal if elected? It's what Corbyn wants, we are told..... And ERG - piss or get off the pot.
That would be interesting.....
However, report tonight that Dominic Grieve is under lots of pressure from his constituency chairman and members. Maybe he needs to go and live in his French property
Grieve’s electorate voted REMAIN, and Grieve is doing a wonderful job keeping the government honest.
That is all we know.
Hanratty ESTIMATED that Beaconsfield voted (narrowly) to Remain.
Given the narrowness of the vote, and the error in Hanratty's calculation, we do not know that Beaconsfield voted to Remain.
If Beaconsfield Conservatives want to get rid of Grieve as their candidate, that is their prerogative.0 -
Not sure 30 will throw away their careersRoger said:There is a sort of symetry to Major's dying administration when 30 or so on his own side thought getting out of the EU was more important than having a Tory government. Now we have 30 or so Remainers who think the same of Remaining.
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And the Remainers wrecking their own Government will allow the Brexiteers to gain control of the party. They risk winning the battle but losing the war (or, perhaps more accurately, winning this war but losing the next one?)Roger said:There is a sort of symetry to Major's dying administration when 30 or so on his own side thought getting out of the EU was more important than having a Tory government. Now we have 30 or so Remainers who think the same of Remaining.
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Not by CorbynGardenwalker said:
I can’t see Jeremy U-Turning on this, it is agreed party policy.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Have you asked Jeremy or the 18 labour mps from leave areas who reject a second referendumGardenwalker said:
Sure. But after a VONC, Labour are pledged to support a referendum.Big_G_NorthWales said:
And the DUP confirmed tonight they will be voting with the government in any such voteGardenwalker said:Guardian is reporting that Labour MPs are told to expect a no confidence vote to be tabled as early as Tuesday evening, and the vote itself on the Wednesday.
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I suppose it isn’t.YBarddCwsc said:
South Bucks voted (narrowly) to Leave.Gardenwalker said:
Uncharacteristically snide.Big_G_NorthWales said:
On expelling why expel the remainers rather than the hard brexiteers or vice versaMarqueeMark said:
But if the MPs are expelled from the Party, they can't be candidates.... There would HAVE to be new candidates put in place.Big_G_NorthWales said:
The problem is local constituencies can override GCHQ and there is no time to select new candidates if there is an early electionMarqueeMark said:A lot of talk of secret plots. MPs running amok. The PMs authority on the line.
But in all this, I presume she still controls the Conservative Party. She has won a mandate from the Parliamentary Party. At what point does she start imposing automatic deselection on rebels? To take effect forthwith, then call a new general election stacked with Tory candidates who are pledged to passing her deal if elected? It's what Corbyn wants, we are told..... And ERG - piss or get off the pot.
That would be interesting.....
However, report tonight that Dominic Grieve is under lots of pressure from his constituency chairman and members. Maybe he needs to go and live in his French property
Grieve’s electorate voted REMAIN, and Grieve is doing a wonderful job keeping the government honest.
That is all we know.
Hanratty ESTIMATED that Beaconsfield voted (narrowly) to Remain.
Given the narrowness of the vote, and the error in Hanratty's calculation, we do not know that Beaconsfield voted to Remain.
If Beaconsfield Constitueny want to get rid of Grieve, that is their prerogative.
But if Grieve is expelled from the Party it’s not going to cow him, is it? More power to him, he is Taking Back Control.0 -
He can only do that by backing Mays deal. He cannot do that, politically, ergo he has no choice but to back a referendum. And if he truly wants to leave he will have to hope it wins.Big_G_NorthWales said:
He wants brexit, always haskle4 said:
I look forward to being vindicated in expecting Corbyn to do so. It's party policy to keep everything open (in opposition to a Tory Brexit). Why would he not support a referendum once his official chance of delivering a better Brexit or getting a GE are over?Gardenwalker said:
Sure. But after a VONC, Labour are pledged to support a referendum.Big_G_NorthWales said:
And the DUP confirmed tonight they will be voting with the government in any such voteGardenwalker said:Guardian is reporting that Labour MPs are told to expect a no confidence vote to be tabled as early as Tuesday evening, and the vote itself on the Wednesday.
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How many Tory Remainers would have to abstain in such a vote for the government to be defeated?Big_G_NorthWales said:
And the DUP confirmed tonight they will be voting with the government in any such voteGardenwalker said:Guardian is reporting that Labour MPs are told to expect a no confidence vote to be tabled as early as Tuesday evening, and the vote itself on the Wednesday.
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Parliament will never revoke but they may repeat the referendum and get a different result.Floater said:
Yes, the people who think this is all over if parliament revokes are indulging in wishful thinking.Big_G_NorthWales said:
That is a good post Roger.Roger said:
A rather nasty and patronising article. Why is it laudable for the Working Class to hold opinions that are beyond the pale if held by the middle class? Who is Joseph Harker to judge people's motives?NickPalmer said:Good article putting the case for Corbyn's approach:
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/commentisfree/2019/jan/12/brexit-remainer-leave-voters-labour-northern-people
"So why is it that, almost by the day, I grow more and more sympathetic to the people who voted leave? Not to the Boris Johnsons and Jacob Rees-Moggs, of course, nor to the middle-class little-Englanders across the Tory shires – nor either to the thuggish nationalist bigots of the far right: but to the millions of ordinary working-class voters who saw leaving the EU as a way to improve their lives and finally have their voices heard"
I really do fear that if brexit is stopped a yellow vest movement will be born here in the UK. The little people are not being listened to0 -
I am proud to be a mail reader and fully support the new editor pro TM deal and anti ERG and no dealGardenwalker said:
You’re sounding a bit Daily Mail, to be honest.Big_G_NorthWales said:
But not his constituency chairman or members. Not really snide, he has a French honour, a French home, and wants to stop brexit even though the manifesto he was elected on supported brexitGardenwalker said:
Uncharacteristically snide.Big_G_NorthWales said:
On expelling why expel the remainers rather than the hard brexiteers or vice versaMarqueeMark said:
But if the MPs are expelled from the Party, they can't be candidates.... There would HAVE to be new candidates put in place.Big_G_NorthWales said:
The problem is local constituencies can override GCHQ and there is no time to select new candidates if there is an early electionMarqueeMark said:A lot of talk of secret plots. MPs running amok. The PMs authority on the line.
But in all this, I presume she still controls the Conservative Party. She has won a mandate from the Parliamentary Party. At what point does she start imposing automatic deselection on rebels? To take effect forthwith, then call a new general election stacked with Tory candidates who are pledged to passing her deal if elected? It's what Corbyn wants, we are told..... And ERG - piss or get off the pot.
That would be interesting.....
However, report tonight that Dominic Grieve is under lots of pressure from his constituency chairman and members. Maybe he needs to go and live in his French property
Grieve’s electorate voted REMAIN, and Grieve is doing a wonderful job keeping the government honest.
That is my politics0 -
Not sure but immediate de-selection followsAndyJS said:
How many Tory Remainers would have to abstain in such a vote for the government to be defeated?Big_G_NorthWales said:
And the DUP confirmed tonight they will be voting with the government in any such voteGardenwalker said:Guardian is reporting that Labour MPs are told to expect a no confidence vote to be tabled as early as Tuesday evening, and the vote itself on the Wednesday.
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They would be guaranteed a different result because the choices offered would be Remain or Not-Quite-Remain. But it would resolve nothing.Roger said:
Parliament will never revoke but they may repeat the referendum and get a different result.Floater said:
Yes, the people who think this is all over if parliament revokes are indulging in wishful thinking.Big_G_NorthWales said:
That is a good post Roger.Roger said:
A rather nasty and patronising article. Why is it laudable for the Working Class to hold opinions that are beyond the pale if held by the middle class? Who is Joseph Harker to judge people's motives?NickPalmer said:Good article putting the case for Corbyn's approach:
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/commentisfree/2019/jan/12/brexit-remainer-leave-voters-labour-northern-people
"So why is it that, almost by the day, I grow more and more sympathetic to the people who voted leave? Not to the Boris Johnsons and Jacob Rees-Moggs, of course, nor to the middle-class little-Englanders across the Tory shires – nor either to the thuggish nationalist bigots of the far right: but to the millions of ordinary working-class voters who saw leaving the EU as a way to improve their lives and finally have their voices heard"
I really do fear that if brexit is stopped a yellow vest movement will be born here in the UK. The little people are not being listened to0 -
I'm just trying to keep you honest, Gardenwalker.Gardenwalker said:
I suppose it isn’t.YBarddCwsc said:
South Bucks voted (narrowly) to Leave.Gardenwalker said:
Uncharacteristically snide.Big_G_NorthWales said:
On expelling why expel the remainers rather than the hard brexiteers or vice versaMarqueeMark said:
But if the MPs are expelled from the Party, they can't be candidates.... There would HAVE to be new candidates put in place.Big_G_NorthWales said:
The problem is local constituencies can override GCHQ and there is no time to select new candidates if there is an early electionMarqueeMark said:A lot of talk of secret plots. MPs running amok. The PMs authority on the line.
But in all this, I presume she still controls the Conservative Party. She has won a mandate from the Parliamentary Party. At what point does she start imposing automatic deselection on rebels? To take effect forthwith, then call a new general election stacked with Tory candidates who are pledged to passing her deal if elected? It's what Corbyn wants, we are told..... And ERG - piss or get off the pot.
That would be interesting.....
However, report tonight that Dominic Grieve is under lots of pressure from his constituency chairman and members. Maybe he needs to go and live in his French property
Grieve’s electorate voted REMAIN, and Grieve is doing a wonderful job keeping the government honest.
That is all we know.
Hanratty ESTIMATED that Beaconsfield voted (narrowly) to Remain.
Given the narrowness of the vote, and the error in Hanratty's calculation, we do not know that Beaconsfield voted to Remain.
If Beaconsfield Constitueny want to get rid of Grieve, that is their prerogative.
But if Grieve is expelled from the Party it’s not going to cow him, is it? More power to him, he is Taking Back Control.
After all, you laud praise on Grieve for "doing a wonderful job keeping the government honest."0 -
Johnson again seems to think we can have a transition period without agreeing to the withdrawal agreement.
https://twitter.com/simon_schama/status/1084207760730927105?s=210 -
Ok, I'm gonna throw this out, post pub, as @seanT would say, and await the brickbats.
But... Caroline Lucas as the face of the 2nd ref vote.0 -
I think you will find he has a choice and backing a second referendum will not be one of themkle4 said:
He can only do that by backing Mays deal. He cannot do that, politically, ergo he has no choice but to back a referendum. And if he truly wants to leave he will have to hope it wins.Big_G_NorthWales said:
He wants brexit, always haskle4 said:
I look forward to being vindicated in expecting Corbyn to do so. It's party policy to keep everything open (in opposition to a Tory Brexit). Why would he not support a referendum once his official chance of delivering a better Brexit or getting a GE are over?Gardenwalker said:
Sure. But after a VONC, Labour are pledged to support a referendum.Big_G_NorthWales said:
And the DUP confirmed tonight they will be voting with the government in any such voteGardenwalker said:Guardian is reporting that Labour MPs are told to expect a no confidence vote to be tabled as early as Tuesday evening, and the vote itself on the Wednesday.
It would set alight great swathes of his leave voting areas handing many seats to the conservatives, hence why 18 labour mps have stated their opposition to such a vote0 -
Not quite. She has said she won't lead them into a 2022 election. But she conspicuously refused to rule out leading them in a snap election if one should take place before then. ConservativeHome noted this at the time:No_Offence_Alan said:
But May has said she won't lead the Tories in the next GE. The new Tory leader might have other ideas.MarqueeMark said:A lot of talk of secret plots. MPs running amok. The PMs authority on the line.
But in all this, I presume she still controls the Conservative Party. She has won a mandate from the Parliamentary Party. At what point does she start imposing automatic deselection on rebels? To take effect forthwith, then call a new general election stacked with Tory candidates who are pledged to passing her deal if elected? It's what Corbyn wants, we are told..... And ERG - piss or get off the pot.
That would be interesting.....
https://www.conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2018/12/two-pledges-to-mps-helped-may-over-the-line-yesterday-but-now-she-must-fulfil-them.html
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AndyJS said:
How many Tory Remainers would have to abstain in such a vote for the government to be defeated?
Uhhhh..... *screws up eyes really tight** ........
Con 317 + DUP10 + Lady Hermon, minus dep speaker: 327
All the rest, minus 2 deps: 312
So 15 Tory rebels abstaining for a draw, and then Bercow voting for Labour.
Although if you're going to abstain, surely you'd go full nuclear and vote against?
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I make Con+DUP a majority of 12, once we take into account the absence of Mr Speaker and Sinn Fein from the reckoning. So if everybody else turns up then 13 abstentions or 7 outright defections are needed to topple the Government.AndyJS said:
How many Tory Remainers would have to abstain in such a vote for the government to be defeated?Big_G_NorthWales said:
And the DUP confirmed tonight they will be voting with the government in any such voteGardenwalker said:Guardian is reporting that Labour MPs are told to expect a no confidence vote to be tabled as early as Tuesday evening, and the vote itself on the Wednesday.
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Redwood versus Jedward?Roger said:There is a sort of symetry to Major's dying administration when 30 or so on his own side thought getting out of the EU was more important than having a Tory government. Now we have 30 or so Remainers who think the same of Remaining.
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Time to go
Have a good nights rest folks
Next week is going to be a roller coaster
Good night0 -
It's a majority of 13 actually - because one Con deputy speaker + two Lab deputy speakers don't vote either.Black_Rook said:
I make Con+DUP a majority of 12, once we take into account the absence of Mr Speaker and Sinn Fein from the reckoning. So if everybody else turns up then 13 abstentions or 7 outright defections are needed to topple the Government.AndyJS said:
How many Tory Remainers would have to abstain in such a vote for the government to be defeated?Big_G_NorthWales said:
And the DUP confirmed tonight they will be voting with the government in any such voteGardenwalker said:Guardian is reporting that Labour MPs are told to expect a no confidence vote to be tabled as early as Tuesday evening, and the vote itself on the Wednesday.
Then there is Lady Hermon - if she is with Govt (and do we know that for sure?) then Govt maj up to 15.
Finally there are now six Independent Lab MPs not taking the whip - are they all guaranteed to vote against Govt? Bear in mind a GE means they lose their job + £75k salary + generous expenses now rather than in 2022. Will some be tempted to stay away? Could Woodcock even vote with Govt (he pledged at 2017 GE not to vote to put Corbyn into Downing Street)?0 -
I don't see why the government couldn't hold the referendum (with the excuse that parliament made them do it) then go on and on, to 2022 then, if Jeremy Corbyn's health holds up, 2027.Black_Rook said:
Of course, a second referendum could only be held under circumstances which would imply a General Election taking place soon afterwards. So Jeremy would get his General Election.kle4 said:
I look forward to being vindicated in expecting Corbyn to do so. It's party policy to keep everything open (in opposition to a Tory Brexit). Why would he not support a referendum once his official chance of delivering a better Brexit or getting a GE are over?Gardenwalker said:
Sure. But after a VONC, Labour are pledged to support a referendum.Big_G_NorthWales said:
And the DUP confirmed tonight they will be voting with the government in any such voteGardenwalker said:Guardian is reporting that Labour MPs are told to expect a no confidence vote to be tabled as early as Tuesday evening, and the vote itself on the Wednesday.
However, said General Election would also function as a de facto third referendum, which would render the outcome of the second referendum academic.
This is all such a mess.
The main risk is that the DUP pulls the plug, but they're still getting money, and a new election removes their influence, so where's the upside? Alternatively it's possible that some of the ERG would break away and form their own party, but the voters would mostly be sick of Brexit, and even Farage never managed to win a seat under FPTP, so why risk immediate career destruction?0 -
For Big G’s benefit, Paul Mason spells out what Labour policy is.
https://twitter.com/paulmasonnews/status/1084157236044353536?s=210 -
Again not over - you may wish it so - but no way will people just shrug their shoulders and say - oh ok.Big_G_NorthWales said:
It is if A50 is revoked. How that happens is another matterFloater said:
Not over by a long way.Big_G_NorthWales said:
By that act we remain and it is all overTheScreamingEagles said:
Once we revoke Article 50 we will hold all the aces. I see only sunlit uplands.kle4 said:
Absent a deal, which no one can agree on, the only way to do that is Remaining, which will only take a single vote in the Commons presumably so it can be a very short short term indeed.TheScreamingEagles said:
Avoiding No Deal, that's the short term goal.kle4 said:
And how exactly is Brexit sorted out in the short term? How long is short term?TheScreamingEagles said:
It'll be a short term arrangement to sort out Brexit.Black_Rook said:
Do you think we're getting to the realignment stage, or is there some means you can discern that stops short of that?TheScreamingEagles said:
Government of temporary National Unity.DanSmith said:
Blimey. Dunno if it's game over for Brexit but it's game over for May.TheScreamingEagles said:
Remember you heard it here first.
How does the Conservative Party survive the decision of the pro-EU wing to topple it's own Prime Minister without splitting - and would such action provide a convenient opportunity for the centre-Left to break away from Corbyn?
Whilst the likes of Anna Soubry, Vince Cable, and Chuka Umunna might agree on Brexit they don't agree on things like tax and the size of the government, so it won't work long term.0 -
Bercow voting against the government in a VONC? That really would be a constitutional innovation!Andrew said:AndyJS said:
How many Tory Remainers would have to abstain in such a vote for the government to be defeated?
Uhhhh..... *screws up eyes really tight** ........
Con 317 + DUP10 + Lady Hermon, minus dep speaker: 327
All the rest, minus 2 deps: 312
So 15 Tory rebels abstaining for a draw, and then Bercow voting for Labour.
Although if you're going to abstain, surely you'd go full nuclear and vote against?0 -
Time for the PM to get tough with Bercow.
Just let him know that any more nonsense and he won't get a Peerage when he retires.
If he can rip up all historical convention then so can she.
OK - that might tempt him to go on and on as Speaker - but per previous thread select a Con candidate for Buckingham and if all the current goings on trigger an early GE then he'll be up against a Con candidate.
Result: He might be out of a job and get no Peerage in pretty short order.0 -
"Brexit divisions are here to stay"
Well, I think that after Brexit actually happens, whether it's March or later in the year, things will revert (gradually in some cases, quickly in others) to something approaching normality. Of course the mess that is Brexit will continue to rumble in the background for many years, perhaps until the next EU referendum, but there is a lot of other politics to be done, and (as we saw at the 2017 election) the traditional divisions are still the norm.
It'll be interesting to see what happens to the gammon and the racists after B-day. Most of them will still be angry, obviously, since that's their default setting (and Brexit will change very little really) but the rest of us will feel somewhat emboldened as we go about attempting to re-educate them: they've got what they said they wanted, now they can learn how to behave.0 -
You and I know that none of that is going to happen.MikeL said:Time for the PM to get tough with Bercow.
Just let him know that any more nonsense and he won't get a Peerage when he retires.
If he can rip up all historical convention then so can she.
OK - that might tempt him to go on and on as Speaker - but per previous thread select a Con candidate for Buckingham and if all the current goings on trigger an early GE then he'll be up against a Con candidate.
Result: He might be out of a job and get no Peerage in pretty short order.0 -
I agree it's unlikely - certainly at this stage - but the question is how far does he push things?Dadge said:
You and I know that none of that is going to happen.MikeL said:Time for the PM to get tough with Bercow.
Just let him know that any more nonsense and he won't get a Peerage when he retires.
If he can rip up all historical convention then so can she.
OK - that might tempt him to go on and on as Speaker - but per previous thread select a Con candidate for Buckingham and if all the current goings on trigger an early GE then he'll be up against a Con candidate.
Result: He might be out of a job and get no Peerage in pretty short order.
If he makes the entire business of Govt impossible then I think reasonable that PM considers some kind of response.0 -
There's always a goodly proportion of small-minded MPs. Look at the Boundary Review - implementing it would make it more likely that there will be a Tory government, but a large number of Tory MPs put their own careers first.Roger said:There is a sort of symetry to Major's dying administration when 30 or so on his own side thought getting out of the EU was more important than having a Tory government. Now we have 30 or so Remainers who think the same of Remaining.
0 -
If Bercow did that, he would be destroying the role of Speaker forever.Charles said:
Bercow voting against the government in a VONC? That really would be a constitutional innovation!Andrew said:AndyJS said:
How many Tory Remainers would have to abstain in such a vote for the government to be defeated?
Uhhhh..... *screws up eyes really tight** ........
Con 317 + DUP10 + Lady Hermon, minus dep speaker: 327
All the rest, minus 2 deps: 312
So 15 Tory rebels abstaining for a draw, and then Bercow voting for Labour.
Although if you're going to abstain, surely you'd go full nuclear and vote against?0 -
If Bercow helps Corbyn into Downing Street, he will be duly rewarded. Corbyn likes to give his obedient friends nice trinkets when they do what they are told.MikeL said:Time for the PM to get tough with Bercow.
Just let him know that any more nonsense and he won't get a Peerage when he retires.
If he can rip up all historical convention then so can she.
OK - that might tempt him to go on and on as Speaker - but per previous thread select a Con candidate for Buckingham and if all the current goings on trigger an early GE then he'll be up against a Con candidate.
Result: He might be out of a job and get no Peerage in pretty short order.0 -
And if that is the case, Remain are doomed.rottenborough said:Ok, I'm gonna throw this out, post pub, as @seanT would say, and await the brickbats.
But... Caroline Lucas as the face of the 2nd ref vote.0 -
16 million Remainers seeking to leave the country?BudG said:
Struggling to see how no deal would cause a problem with passport renewals. Can anyone help?Yellow_Submarine said:I see we now have HMG ads advising folk with holidays booked to europe this summer they may need to renew passports early in the event of no deal. As with the Sunday Times front page the question is Cui Bono ? Who benefits from these chaos stories ? The answer is Theresa May.
0 -
The troublesome minority in the Tory party can exert influence only in this parliament, and only in a limited set of circs. Which is why I doubt any vote against the Govt in a VONC. By doing so they throw away their own influence.ralphmalph said:
Yes, the split the Tory's can survive is the pro-EU lot leaving. The spilt they can not survive is the leavers leaving. They would then be a poor persons imitation of the lib dems.RoyalBlue said:
We are not going to split in anything like half.Black_Rook said:
Hah! Glad we're in the same boat.TheScreamingEagles said:Haven't got a fecking clue.
So if the Conservatives split but Labour holds together then I guess it's all down to the size of the Tory split. If it's just Grieve and a few of the other hardcore troublemakers then the bulk of the party can spend the ensuing GE campaign burning the rebels in effigy and deploying the betrayal narrative against both them and Labour. If the Tories split in half then they might as well save us all the bother and form a circular firing squad.kle4 said:If we Remain I don't see how the Tories avoid a split though. How big, IDK, but there's too many who see Brexit as fundamental to their identity to not react if some Tories cause Remain to happen.
If 20 Tory MPs betray the party, they will take a maximum of 10,000 activists with them. Not a single one of the MPs would return to Parliament at the next General Election.0 -
Just read the STimes article.
Good justification to delay the vote IMHO.0 -
They're covering an anti-austerity protest on Al Jazeera, the protest leader is kind of awesome. Literal quote (from memory):
The government are trying to impose a hard brexit, a no-deal brexit!
The solution is simple!
Next week, we will defeat Theresa May's deal!0 -
if we crash out then we’d be subject to the Schengen rule that you need at least six months’ validity remaining on your passport to enter. At present you can enter Schengen ok any unexpired EU passport.Cyclefree said:
16 million Remainers seeking to leave the country?BudG said:
Struggling to see how no deal would cause a problem with passport renewals. Can anyone help?Yellow_Submarine said:I see we now have HMG ads advising folk with holidays booked to europe this summer they may need to renew passports early in the event of no deal. As with the Sunday Times front page the question is Cui Bono ? Who benefits from these chaos stories ? The answer is Theresa May.
0 -
There's no "normal" any longer. Brexit is just the opening salvo in a Trump style culture war.Dadge said:"Brexit divisions are here to stay"
Well, I think that after Brexit actually happens, whether it's March or later in the year, things will revert (gradually in some cases, quickly in others) to something approaching normality.0 -
That would not be so much tough, as toothless petulance.MikeL said:Time for the PM to get tough with Bercow.
Just let him know that any more nonsense and he won't get a Peerage when he retires.
If he can rip up all historical convention then so can she.
OK - that might tempt him to go on and on as Speaker - but per previous thread select a Con candidate for Buckingham and if all the current goings on trigger an early GE then he'll be up against a Con candidate.
Result: He might be out of a job and get no Peerage in pretty short order.
And in any event such things are in her gist only while she remains in office.
0 -
Much more intractable that that.Dura_Ace said:
There's no "normal" any longer. Brexit is just the opening salvo in a Trump style culture war.Dadge said:"Brexit divisions are here to stay"
Well, I think that after Brexit actually happens, whether it's March or later in the year, things will revert (gradually in some cases, quickly in others) to something approaching normality.
0 -
The UK and Ireland only require your passport to be valid for the duration of your stay for all visitors - you can stay right until the expiry date.rpjs said:
if we crash out then we’d be subject to the Schengen rule that you need at least six months’ validity remaining on your passport to enter. At present you can enter Schengen ok any unexpired EU passport.Cyclefree said:
16 million Remainers seeking to leave the country?BudG said:
Struggling to see how no deal would cause a problem with passport renewals. Can anyone help?Yellow_Submarine said:I see we now have HMG ads advising folk with holidays booked to europe this summer they may need to renew passports early in the event of no deal. As with the Sunday Times front page the question is Cui Bono ? Who benefits from these chaos stories ? The answer is Theresa May.
So I assume we would reciprocate and move to six months for non Irish EU/EEA passport holders (and keep the same for the rest of the world) - although the Schengen area could of course decide to adopt a different approach for UK passport holders if it wished.
Of course any sensible person would renew well in advance of six months as many countries across the world enforce the six month rule.0 -
They need a campaign leader who could resonate in Wales, the north and Midlands - which isn't ideally an MP for Brighton as lovely as the town is.oxfordsimon said:
And if that is the case, Remain are doomed.rottenborough said:Ok, I'm gonna throw this out, post pub, as @seanT would say, and await the brickbats.
But... Caroline Lucas as the face of the 2nd ref vote.0
