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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » What happens when the anti-Brexiteers united – those who want

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  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 4,244
    .

    I think if Corbyn becomes PM without a GE, then a GE will shortly follow.

    First, it is in Corbyn’s interests to strike when the Tories are at maximum disarray, and second, an alliance of remainer Tories+SNP+PC+Green+Lib+Lab is likely as stable as high explosive.

    I think Wollaston, Grieve and Soubry would then be swept away in the subsequent GE. So, I am not sure they will take the action you suggest.
    Wollaston would have a very good chance of keeping her seat either as an Independent or as a Lib Dem. Totnes is like that.

    Soubry wouldn’t, but I doubt she cares.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,787
    kle4 said:

    I'm sure he does but he's a fanatic, why would that concern him?
    I doubt he gives a stuff, but it will be interesting watching the effect on the well heeled citizens of Beaconsfield if his actions lead to PM Jezza. Youd need a heart of stone etc.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,507

    I doubt he gives a stuff, but it will be interesting watching the effect on the well heeled citizens of Beaconsfield if his actions lead to PM Jezza. Youd need a heart of stone etc.
    He may not stand next time.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,538

    We don't know who voted against Theresa May in the vote of no confidence. More did so than are on the record as opposing the deal from a Brexit direction.

    And your last sentence makes my point. We are in a time-critical phase and the government cannot expect to try to run down the clock in order to forestall discussion of the options.
    I'd say that last point has been true for a lot longer than the last month. There is absolutely nothing stopping MPs from taking back control. The only thing that stops them is fear of what it will do to their own precious careers.
  • Nigelb said:

    I wouldn't disagree with that - and Bercow was fairly clumsy presenting his justification of the decision. Though not as clumsy as some of the criticism directed at him.

    Having said that, the situation was not one which allows leisurely judgment, and I think he made the best of a bad job.

    A less contentious figure making the decision might have been preferable, but for now we are stuck with the Speaker we have.
    Bercow's decision yesterday was wrong on many levels and for Betty Boothroyd to launch a full on attack on Bercow says it all.

    However, I have no problem with the result of the amendment - TM needs to come back quickly, and according to 5 live, the HOC will then be able to test various options in an attempt to see a way through the log jam
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 4,244

    I honestly think the LDs are now irrelevant. It will take more than the lightweight Moran to revive them. (The comparison of Layla with Leanne Wood made the other day on here struck me as particularly pungent and valid).

    In 2017, the LDs could not win ultra-Remain seats like Cambridge, when they were in second place behind a wafer-thin 2015 majority, had a popular local candidate & they were the only party backing Remain.

    For whatever reason, ultra-Remainers see their best chance as recapturing the Labour leadership.
    Tuition fees lost Cambridge, it’s that simple. (A friend of mine is an ex-Lib Dem City Councillor.)

    Exactly why the Lib Dems’ next leader needs to be untainted by Coalition.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 55,184

    I have little sympathy for HMG they should have voted before Xmas, but this is just the shoddy gamesmanship the conservatives seem to be addicted to. It started with Camerons no planning for a referendum loss and has continued with May holding the nations feet to the fire and screaming TINA.

    Any Conservative trying to push the line of competence deserves to get laughed off the planet.
    May I refer the learned gentleman to my observation at 8.25?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,110
    edited January 2019
    DavidL said:

    I agree. I also feel very sorry for the poor agent who has been dumped with this. I have no doubt that she was doing what she was told to do by people higher up the food chain. Not sure if that is a role I would take on until the rules are seriously clarified.
    In law the decision on all election expenditure sits with the agent. Being told to commit a crime isn't a defence, for obvious reasons. Where you may have a point is that there are surely others who should be done for incitement (edit/or conspiracy), had there been sufficient evidence.

    Having been both candidate and agent, I suspect they thought they would get away with it, on the basis that our election law is archaic and it is very common to interpret the rules flexibly, putting it politely. But as with other such areas (tradesman taking payment in cash comes to mind), when the scale of abuse reaches a certain level it is right that the law gets involved.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,483
    Mr. B2, in medieval times, petty treason compelled wives to obey their husbands. This could successfully be used by women as defence in cases of robbery and murder (saying their husband had ordered it, and disobeying would be treason). They'd be let off with no punishment. The man would hang.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,557

    Wollaston would have a very good chance of keeping her seat either as an Independent or as a Lib Dem. Totnes is like that.

    Totnes town (long twinned with Narnia) is "like that" - the outer rural areas not so much.

    Plenty of folks here who think she has turned herself into a laughing stock over her various Brexit positions. Others who think she has been very principled. She would win as an Independent - if the LibDems didn't stand. Other than that, nothing much is certain.
  • AnazinaAnazina Posts: 3,487
    The London crime trope on here is utterly tiresome.

    The rate has barely varied in 20 years.

    It really is that simple. The stats are freely available.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,739
    edited January 2019

    Bercow's decision yesterday was wrong on many levels and for Betty Boothroyd to launch a full on attack on Bercow says it all...
    Does it ?

    "However, I have no problem with the result of the amendment"

    And how else might have that been achieved ?
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172



    Wollaston would have a very good chance of keeping her seat either as an Independent or as a Lib Dem. Totnes is like that.

    Soubry wouldn’t, but I doubt she cares.

    I like Wollaston at a personal level, but I am not very convinced that she’d survive.

    Even “popular” MPs actually have a derisory personal vote, so I don’t think she’d pull through as an independent.

    And why would the LibDems or Labour back down? The Tories and an Independent Wollaston splitting the previous Tory vote could conceivably give either of them the seat.

    It would be an uncertain four-way fight. I doubt she’d win.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 55,184
    Grim if predictable stuff on the retail front today. Debenhams sales fell 5.7%, in talks with lenders, M&S down, John Lewis staff bonus in doubt, generally pretty grim: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-46807146

    Its hard to tell if there has been a reduction in consumption or whether bricks are just continuing to lose to clocks at an ever greater rate. By the middle of next month several more chains will have ceased trading and the number of empty units will increase again. We need to start working out what we want of our High Streets other than coffee shops and hairdressers.
  • Anazina said:

    The London crime trope on here is utterly tiresome.

    The rate has barely varied in 20 years.

    It really is that simple. The stats are freely available.

    I do not think it is to do with stats. The media is London centric and nearly every day they are reporting on stabbings and shootings in London

    This creates an image of lawlessness in the Capital
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,110

    Mr. B2, in medieval times, petty treason compelled wives to obey their husbands. This could successfully be used by women as defence in cases of robbery and murder (saying their husband had ordered it, and disobeying would be treason). They'd be let off with no punishment. The man would hang.

    That's a very interesting aside, Mr Morris, which adds to our knowledge, but doesn't appear to have any applicability to the role of election agent.
  • Nigelb said:

    Does it ?

    "However, I have no problem with the result of the amendment"

    And how else might have that been achieved ?
    Betty Boothroyd was one of our best speakers and her attack on Bercow endorses the opinion he made the wrong decision.

    As to your second point, that does not justify Bercow's behaviour
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,507
    DavidL said:

    Grim if predictable stuff on the retail front today. Debenhams sales fell 5.7%, in talks with lenders, M&S down, John Lewis staff bonus in doubt, generally pretty grim: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-46807146

    Its hard to tell if there has been a reduction in consumption or whether bricks are just continuing to lose to clocks at an ever greater rate. By the middle of next month several more chains will have ceased trading and the number of empty units will increase again. We need to start working out what we want of our High Streets other than coffee shops and hairdressers.

    Oddly, retail sales data have been okay.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,069
    DavidL said:

    Grim if predictable stuff on the retail front today. Debenhams sales fell 5.7%, in talks with lenders, M&S down, John Lewis staff bonus in doubt, generally pretty grim: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-46807146

    Its hard to tell if there has been a reduction in consumption or whether bricks are just continuing to lose to clocks at an ever greater rate. By the middle of next month several more chains will have ceased trading and the number of empty units will increase again. We need to start working out what we want of our High Streets other than coffee shops and hairdressers.

    Shops with originality and which provide an experience, otherwise flats and offices
  • Nigelb said:

    Does it ?

    "However, I have no problem with the result of the amendment"

    And how else might have that been achieved ?
    That's an "end justify the means" argument. Maybe the Amendment shouldn't have been achieved because the means matter? Even if you have no problem with the result of the Amendment.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,069
    Anazina said:

    The London crime trope on here is utterly tiresome.

    The rate has barely varied in 20 years.

    It really is that simple. The stats are freely available.

    The stats are also clear the murder rate fell by 40 a year from 2008 to 2016 when Boris was Mayor and has risen by 20 a year since Khan took over
  • ParistondaParistonda Posts: 1,844
    edited January 2019

    I honestly think the LDs are now irrelevant. It will take more than the lightweight Moran to revive them. (The comparison of Layla with Leanne Wood made the other day on here struck me as particularly pungent and valid).

    In 2017, the LDs could not win ultra-Remain seats like Cambridge, when they were in second place behind a wafer-thin 2015 majority, had a popular local candidate & they were the only party backing Remain.

    For whatever reason, ultra-Remainers see their best chance as recapturing the Labour leadership.
    Indeed, and they’re not wrong either. They don’t need to even get rid of Corbin just ensure enough pressure is on him from those around him that he pivots on Brexit. By any measure it’s an easier task than trying to revive the Lib Dems to a significant parliamentary force, even if he is obviously trying to avoid making any decisions on Brexit for as long as possible.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,069
    edited January 2019

    It's not really clear Giuliani did much, crime started dropping before he took over and also dropped in other cities that he wasn't mayor of. See https://www.politifact.com/truth-o-meter/article/2007/sep/01/how-much-credit-giuliani-due-fighting-crime/

    That said, annexing Essex would clearly be the right thing to do.
    New York city was a hellhole in many parts before he became Mayor, by pushing zero tolerance and a 'broken windows' policy Giuliani was the key factor in ensuring it is now a much more civilised and even gentrified city
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    DavidL said:

    I agree. But the resolution has contradicted an Act of Parliament. S13 (I think, I quoted it yesterday) requires a statement 21 days after the failure to pass the meaningful vote. That has now been reduced to 3 days. Of course if the MV had been in December things would have moved on by now and there would be more time. Which, essentially, is what was both Grieve's and Bercow's point.
    I agree with this and many other subsequent posts by others.

    The situation feels similar to a blazing row between spouses. One of them undoubtedly started it and, on a narrow interpretation, the angry response of the other is justified, but it's no way for either to behave. Both need to take a step back, calm down, admit they were wrong and agree not to behave like that in the future.

    In this case I'd suggest that Bercow should agree that he was wrong to allow the business motion to be amended to overrule an Act of Parliament and the Executive should agree that it was wrong to abuse Parliamentary procedure to delay a vote without consent.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,069

    I honestly think the LDs are now irrelevant. It will take more than the lightweight Moran to revive them. (The comparison of Layla with Leanne Wood made the other day on here struck me as particularly pungent and valid).

    In 2017, the LDs could not win ultra-Remain seats like Cambridge, when they were in second place behind a wafer-thin 2015 majority, had a popular local candidate & they were the only party backing Remain.

    For whatever reason, ultra-Remainers see their best chance as recapturing the Labour leadership.
    According to Yougov the LDs are already up to 10% and Labour down to just 34%
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    SeanT said:

    On the other hand his blatant bias yesterday has handily speeded things up. Time is short. We need to choose. Looks to me like we are headed for a second vote. Or Norway plus.

    The only route to Norway plus is via the Withdrawal Agreement.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 55,184
    IanB2 said:

    In law the decision on all election expenditure sits with the agent. Being told to commit a crime isn't a defence, for obvious reasons. Where you may have a point is that there are surely others who should be done for incitement (edit/or conspiracy), had there been sufficient evidence.

    Having been both candidate and agent, I suspect they thought they would get away with it, on the basis that our election law is archaic and it is very common to interpret the rules flexibly, putting it politely. But as with other such areas (tradesman taking payment in cash comes to mind), when the scale of abuse reaches a certain level it is right that the law gets involved.
    I just feel its a bit tough to be left holding the parcel when the ticking stops. I agree abuse is endemic and become ever more so as centrally organised planning overtakes constituency based campaigning.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,507
    HYUFD said:

    According to Yougov the LDs are already up to 10% and Labour down to just 34%
    Overall, they're still around 8%, and Labour 38%.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,069
    Sean_F said:

    Overall, they're still around 8%, and Labour 38%.
    Which is still up on 2017 with Labour down
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,716
    HYUFD said:

    New York city was a hellhole in many parts before he became Mayor, by pushing zero tolerance and a 'broken windows' policy Giuliani was the key factor in ensuring it is now a much more civilised and even gentrified city

    Who needs evidence when you're really really sure?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,235
    edited January 2019
    As Mogg said this morning a motion only needs to be tabled by the government. No mention of ''movement" ;)
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,739

    Betty Boothroyd was one of our best speakers and her attack on Bercow endorses the opinion he made the wrong decision.

    As to your second point, that does not justify Bercow's behaviour
    She never faced a situation where the executive effectively paralysed Parliament for weeks at a time on the most contentious issue of the day.
    Major played a much straighter hand on Maastricht.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,739
    HYUFD said:

    New York city was a hellhole in many parts before he became Mayor, by pushing zero tolerance and a 'broken windows' policy Giuliani was the key factor in ensuring it is now a much more civilised and even gentrified city

    Were the crime trends in NY during his term really that different to those nationally ?
    https://fas.org/sgp/crs/misc/R45236.pdf
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,705

    The only route to Norway plus is via the Withdrawal Agreement.
    s'ok. Sean wouldn't be the only person to confuse the WA with the future relationship.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,739
    SeanT said:

    In other news, Bercow is a self regarding, pumped up little prick who is, happily, being openly cuckolded by his wife. As the whole world knows.

    On the other hand his blatant bias yesterday has handily speeded things up. Time is short. We need to choose. Looks to me like we are headed for a second vote. Or Norway plus.

    In this case he was biased in favour of parliament against the executive - which is how it should be.
    That he is also, not unreasonably, suspected of bias against the Tories is unfortunate.

    I have no interest in his marriage.
  • Sean_F said:



    The problem is that he 's a wanker.

    History suggests that is no great impediment.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,203
    TOPPING said:

    s'ok. Sean wouldn't be the only person to confuse the WA with the future relationship.
    I don’t think this is true.
    The Norway plus gang are generally against this deal.
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172

    Indeed, and they’re not wrong either. They don’t need to even get rid of Corbin just ensure enough pressure is on him from those around him that he pivots on Brexit. By any measure it’s an easier task than trying to revive the Lib Dems to a significant parliamentary force, even if he is obviously trying to avoid making any decisions on Brexit for as long as possible.
    There is a pleasing symmetry to it.

    Ultra-Remainers tend to be highly affluent, and so a Corbyn Government will make them pay for the privilege of Remaining.

    It is a fine solution. Those in Stoke or Hartlepool crapped on by the way the EU & our politics works will get a chunk of posh Ultra-Remainer money.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,705

    I don’t think this is true.
    The Norway plus gang are generally against this deal.
    Yes idiocy is not confined to the ERGoLoons.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 43,341
    edited January 2019
    IanB2 said:

    A man transformed by his wife.
    If there's one thing PB Tories hate, it's any example of someone becoming less right wing as they grow older.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,787

    There is a pleasing symmetry to it.

    Ultra-Remainers tend to be highly affluent, and so a Corbyn Government will make them pay for the privilege of Remaining.

    It is a fine solution. Those in Stoke or Hartlepool crapped on by the way the EU & our politics works will get a chunk of posh Ultra-Remainer money.
    yes, its not all downside, Likewise the remain team are now going to own the discomfort of championing the EU with a disiilusioned electorate while providing the block with a large injection of rabid wreckers.

  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,739
    edited January 2019



    That's an "end justify the means" argument. Maybe the Amendment shouldn't have been achieved because the means matter? Even if you have no problem with the result of the Amendment.

    I don't entirely disagree with that - but was he (and should we ?) just to accept the ability of a minority government to paralyse Parliament for extended periods of time ?

    May has asked too may times to be given a few weeks to come back with a solution. At this point, it is blatant time wasting.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 22,100

    If there's one thing PB Tories hate, it's any examples of someone becoming less right wing as they grow older.
    All the best people grow less conservative and more radical as they grow older.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,507
    SeanT said:

    It’s not all bad. Bookshops, bizarrely, are doing well. Click and collect is popular and growing. Shops which provide something unique can thrive too. People still want to go out to town, and do some shopping. It’s a human universal. Towns formed where markets took root. People like to be where there are other people.

    What people will not go to town for is the basics and the staples which can be delivered cheaply to their homes.
    Pure anecdote, but Enfield 's weekly market is always crowded, because the stalls sell excellent produce.
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,795
    TOPPING said:

    Yes idiocy is not confined to the ERGoLoons.
    The WA is the only way to a future relationship.
  • Pro_Rata said:


    Jack Ryan has my vote.

    "Hey, Ryan, be careful what you shoot at. Most things in here don't react too well to bullets Brexit!"
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    SeanT said:

    Which requires a GE? As the DUP will crash HMG before supporting the WA. I hope that’s enuff initialisms.

    What it ALL points to is an extension or revocation of A50
    This looks more likely to me then it did a month or two ago, but I still have my doubts that the anti-no-dealers will have the nerve to do the necessary and depose May.

    I'm convinced that May does not intend to do their dirty work for them and will still be insisting that the only way to avoid no deal is to vote for her deal if she is still PM at 2019-03-29 22:45
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 4,244
    SeanT said:

    It’s not all bad. Bookshops, bizarrely, are doing well. Click and collect is popular and growing. Shops which provide something unique can thrive too. People still want to go out to town, and do some shopping. It’s a human universal. Towns formed where markets took root. People like to be where there are other people.

    What people will not go to town for is the basics and the staples which can be delivered cheaply to their homes.
    Exactly - and in fact I don't think it's that bizarre.

    Amazon hit bookshops first, so the process of reinvention started five, even ten years earlier than other High Street retail. Waterstones and the indies have learned about providing an "experience".

    Debenhams and M&S haven't learned this yet. John Lewis has made a few steps in that direction (the new Westgate store in Oxford is full of it) but only a few.

    If bookshops are anything to go by, they'll get the message eventually, but a lot of them will fall by the wayside until that happens.
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    SeanT said:

    In other news, Bercow is a self regarding, pumped up little prick who is, happily, being openly cuckolded by his wife. As the whole world knows.

    On the other hand his blatant bias yesterday has handily speeded things up. Time is short. We need to choose. Looks to me like we are headed for a second vote. Or Norway plus.

    If it is a second vote,I hope the leave side/ leaders come out of it with "We are note taking part" and advise leave voters to do the same.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,110
    This thread is now OLD
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 22,100
    edited January 2019
    It’s worth noting that under hard Brexit, the EU is under no obligation to talk to us, let alone negotiate. The ERGonauts assume its BAU after March.

    It’s a nice contradiction. They want legal certainty in the backstop, but are prepared to take on faith everything under the no deal scenario.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,705
    edited January 2019
    SeanT said:


    I will happily confess I am indeed confused. Who isn’t? Brexit has become Fermat’s Last Theorem. There are a million suggested solutions and none of them seem quite right.

    On reflection, if we revoke A50, then invoke it again we could ask for Norway plus without the WA. The WA would be dead in that situation. We’d be starting anew. Whether the EU would agree is moot. I suspect they would. But who knows.
    The EU (much to @Richard_Nabavi's chagrin) stipulated that the WA must be signed before we can begin to negotiate the future relationship. So not sure that would be the case although if we rocked up and said: "here this is what we want" then maybe they would consider that.

    Of course we have no idea what we want so the chances of that happening are pretty small.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,180
    Nigelb said:

    In this case he was biased in favour of parliament against the executive - which is how it should be.
    That he is also, not unreasonably, suspected of bias against the Tories is unfortunate.

    I have no interest in his marriage.
    Unfortunately the party political bias is the key issue as it risks a permanent politicised Speaker - which would be disastrous when we have majority governments.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,739
    felix said:

    Unfortunately the party political bias is the key issue as it risks a permanent politicised Speaker - which would be disastrous when we have majority governments.
    In this case, though, it is not a party political issue - and characters as diverse as Clarke and Rees Mogg have backed him (though the latter disagreed with the ruling, he said Bercow had done nothing wrong in arriving at it).
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    HYUFD said:

    New York city was a hellhole in many parts before he became Mayor, by pushing zero tolerance and a 'broken windows' policy Giuliani was the key factor in ensuring it is now a much more civilised and even gentrified city
    Giuliani's broken windows theory became quite fashionable here for a time, where it had been completely overlooked when first expounded in Michael Rutter's survey of London schools' practice: 15,000 Hours.
    http://www.hup.harvard.edu/catalog.php?isbn=9780674300262

    We've never been good at letting research influence policy.
  • AnazinaAnazina Posts: 3,487

    Who needs evidence when you're really really sure?
    Well, quite. This must rank as one of the most nauseating PB tropes in modern times. Burning Ears' post last night should be made a sticky, to which all are diverted when this tired old saw pops back up.
  • AnazinaAnazina Posts: 3,487

    If it is a second vote,I hope the leave side/ leaders come out of it with "We are note taking part" and advise leave voters to do the same.

    Great. Bigger remain majority. You get nowt for failing to show up.
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,795
    The Ford news this morning and the rest of the trading news across europe is a clear sign that Europe as a whole is head for a big reccession...

    Grim times.
  • Anazina said:


    Great. Bigger remain majority. You get nowt for failing to show up.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1973_Northern_Ireland_border_poll
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    Anazina said:


    Great. Bigger remain majority. You get nowt for failing to show up.
    Only a civil war,keep bringing it on
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,103
    Nigelb said:

    She never faced a situation where the executive effectively paralysed Parliament for weeks at a time on the most contentious issue of the day.
    Major played a much straighter hand on Maastricht.
    He was right to thwart the cheating Tories. No way should they be able to gerrymander parliament the way they have been doing.
This discussion has been closed.