politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Corbyn’s flat rejection of a second referendum sees the bettin

I don't get it, wasn't this always his position?

The betting response is wrong. A referendum only becomes less likely if Corbyn indicates a softening of his position on voting for the deal.

It might sound unlikely but why doesn't someone take a punt on challenging Corbyn?

Most will say he can't be beaten but who knows - Owen Smith got 40% in 2016 and he was a very weak candidate.

Many Lab members care a lot about Brexit. So if a much stronger candidate challenged Corbyn promising a 2nd referendum then who knows - they might well cause an upset.

MikeL said:

It might sound unlikely but why doesn't someone take a punt on challenging Corbyn?

Most will say he can't be beaten but who knows - Owen Smith got 40% in 2016 and he was a very weak candidate.

Many Lab members care a lot about Brexit. So if a much stronger candidate challenged Corbyn promising a 2nd referendum then who knows - they might well cause an upset.

The problem is, as Smith found out, and he wasn't that terrible a candidate but had to face a ruthless Momentum-led hit job before he even got going, challenging Corbyn has a rallying effect whereby even those who'll privately admit the man's a bit of a dud, jump in enthusiastically behind him in defence of the wider project. A challenge purely based on a second referendum would arguably have the effect of tainting it because a majority of Labour members will then see it through the lens of being used as a method moderates have used to oust Corbyn.

It is of course absurd, and hugely damaging to Labour and the country. But that's where we are. Labour are now a political Ponzi scheme run for the service of a small group of men who control it, with the acquiescence of those being defrauded.

CarlottaVance said:

Aaron is on the job:

https://twitter.com/AaronBastani/status/1080624782008291333?s=20

So he's saying Corbyn is NOT defying calls for a second referendum?

I'm confused by the labour position on all this. Not least the cries of betrayal previously about Corbyn following the actual party policy rather than what people wished was party policy. So now I don't know whether he is changing position or not or if he's just pulling a May, putting off a decision or sticking to one position long past the point it is no longer viable.

kle4 said:

So he's saying Corbyn is NOT defying calls for a second referendum?

Could be saying that low-calorie sweeteners definitely aid weight loss.

kle4 said:

CarlottaVance said:

Aaron is on the job:

https://twitter.com/AaronBastani/status/1080624782008291333?s=20

So he's saying Corbyn is NOT defying calls for a second referendum?

I'm confused by the labour position on all this. Not least the cries of betrayal previously about Corbyn following the actual party policy rather than what people wished was party policy. So now I don't know whether he is changing position or not or if he's just pulling a May, putting off a decision or sticking to one position long past the point it is no longer viable.

Apparently this is what he thinks Corbyn’s Brexit policy is.
https://twitter.com/aaronbastani/status/1076952646500712448?s=21

williamglenn said:

kle4 said:

CarlottaVance said:

Aaron is on the job:

https://twitter.com/AaronBastani/status/1080624782008291333?s=20

So he's saying Corbyn is NOT defying calls for a second referendum?

I'm confused by the labour position on all this. Not least the cries of betrayal previously about Corbyn following the actual party policy rather than what people wished was party policy. So now I don't know whether he is changing position or not or if he's just pulling a May, putting off a decision or sticking to one position long past the point it is no longer viable.

Apparently this is what he thinks Corbyn’s Brexit policy is.
https://twitter.com/aaronbastani/status/1076952646500712448?s=21

When I first saw this tweet I thought it was a spoof!

But they’re deadly serious. Deadly.

williamglenn said:

kle4 said:

CarlottaVance said:

Aaron is on the job:

https://twitter.com/AaronBastani/status/1080624782008291333?s=20

So he's saying Corbyn is NOT defying calls for a second referendum?

I'm confused by the labour position on all this. Not least the cries of betrayal previously about Corbyn following the actual party policy rather than what people wished was party policy. So now I don't know whether he is changing position or not or if he's just pulling a May, putting off a decision or sticking to one position long past the point it is no longer viable.

Apparently this is what he thinks Corbyn’s Brexit policy is.
https://twitter.com/aaronbastani/status/1076952646500712448?s=21

I was reading through a few replies and saw this chestnut... LOL

https://twitter.com/AaronBastani/status/1077171988593020928

Jeremy Corbyn, Hard Brexit's Bessy Mate.....

williamglenn said:

MarqueeMark said:

What is the earliest date by which a General Election couldn't be held before March 29th? Given May shows no signs whatsoever of calling such an election or withdrawing Article 50, and Corbyn won't facilitate a second referendum, then that is when the penny is going to drop for Remainers - it's Hard Brexit or May's Shit Deal.

Pop Quiz, Remainers: What do you do?

Revocation requires the least time of any of the options, so Remainers have the upper hand in any game of brinkmanship.

Penny doesn’t seem to have dropped with our resident NeverBrexiter, @MarqueeMark

Mortimer said:

williamglenn said:

MarqueeMark said:

What is the earliest date by which a General Election couldn't be held before March 29th? Given May shows no signs whatsoever of calling such an election or withdrawing Article 50, and Corbyn won't facilitate a second referendum, then that is when the penny is going to drop for Remainers - it's Hard Brexit or May's Shit Deal.

Pop Quiz, Remainers: What do you do?

Revocation requires the least time of any of the options, so Remainers have the upper hand in any game of brinkmanship.

Penny doesn’t seem to have dropped with our resident NeverBrexiter, @MarqueeMark

Yep. Hard Brexit means Brexit........

edmundintokyo said:

I don't get it, wasn't this always his position?

Yes, and it's also the party position agreed at the conference, for all that the Guardian would like it to be different. The sequencing is clear and it hasn't changed:

1. Offer May a deal on Labour terms (permanent customs union is the simple one, but if she engaged there would be haggling over other things). The EU has said repeatedly that it's specifically the "no permanent customs union" red line that prevents reopening the deal. However, she's not interested and the clock is ticking. So...

2. Vote down the May deal. It's the only one on the table, and needs to be considered. It offers a low-grade second-class associate membership. There are probably enough votes to reject it clearly.

3. Block a No Deal by putting in killer amendments to every bit of legislation in sight which will paralyse government if we simply leave without a deal. These amendments have majority support in Parliament.

4. Seek a General Election through a VONC, to offer people a choice of delayed A50 and new negotiations without May's red lines. This is, frankly, likely to fail to get a majority.

5. Seek a second referendum, as other alternatives have been exhausted.

The Guardian and People's Vote campaigners (who bear an uncanny resemblance to a subset of the anti-Corbyn people) want to lift step 5 to step 1. But that means "join the Remain conspiracy" - it fails to show that we've made reasonable efforts to respect the referendum. Reach step 5 and there's a defensible case that we've offered alternative implementations of Leave and merely rejected the one that nearly everyone agrees is unacceptable.

One can disagree, but it's just silly to argue that Corbyn is defying the party by this. It's what we've agreed to do, and he's sticking to it.

Impressive. Sooner rather than later IMO China will send a manned mission to the moon.

https://twitter.com/XHscitech/status/1080693756477632513

Small irony. China firewalls Twitter.

NickPalmer said:

The EU has said repeatedly that it's specifically the "no permanent customs union" red line that prevents reopening the deal.

This is not true. The withdrawal agreement would not change even if we were seeking a permanent customs union as part of the future relationship.

NickPalmer said:

3. Block a No Deal by putting in killer amendments to every bit of legislation in sight which will paralyse government if we simply leave without a deal. These amendments have majority support in Parliament.

That wouldn't block a no-deal Brexit, just make the chaos far worse if one happened. The only way to guarantee we leave with a deal is to vote for the one on offer.

MJW said:

kle4 said:

CarlottaVance said:

Aaron is on the job:

https://twitter.com/AaronBastani/status/1080624782008291333?s=20

So he's saying Corbyn is NOT defying calls for a second referendum?

I'm confused by the labour position on all this. Not least the cries of betrayal previously about Corbyn following the actual party policy rather than what people wished was party policy. So now I don't know whether he is changing position or not or if he's just pulling a May, putting off a decision or sticking to one position long past the point it is no longer viable.

I think almost certainly the latter. I think the important thing to remember about Corbyn is that he's one of the few politicians who is totally uninterested in Brexit. Even his ideological allies are either Lexiteers or fear Brexit would fatally hobble a Corbyn government. They care about it in some way. Corbyn's political worldview is subtly different though in that he essentially believes that whatever problems exist can be solved merely by a socialist government with the will to solve them. As such, it's a political irritant rather than the great issue of the day. He's just going to moan until it happens and then claim his own brand of declarative socialism is the only antidote.

Nail and head. This is far closer to the truth than the suggestions that Corbyn is some sort of secret strong leaver, despite having said or written next to nothing on the subject during a very long political career.

Beverley_C said:

Foxy said:

Beverley_C said:

williamglenn said:

MarqueeMark said:

What is the earliest date by which a General Election couldn't be held before March 29th? Given May shows no signs whatsoever of calling such an election or withdrawing Article 50, and Corbyn won't facilitate a second referendum, then that is when the penny is going to drop for Remainers - it's Hard Brexit or May's Shit Deal.

Pop Quiz, Remainers: What do you do?

Revocation requires the least time of any of the options, so Remainers have the upper hand in any game of brinkmanship.

I really hope you are right, but i am preparing for WTO.

I reckon that Labour will hold their line, and that Mays Deal will be voted down by her own party. There is no sign that Labour MPs are weakening on this, and SNP and LD look solid too.

So popcorn time, while stocks last, and No Deal a definite possibility, depending on May's reaction.

I lack your faith in our spineless representatives. They will just keep voting until they get the right answer

It does seem a little ironic that MPs are likely to be allowed a second vote in order to prevent the people getting a second vote.

IanB2 said:

MJW said:

kle4 said:

CarlottaVance said:

Aaron is on the job:

https://twitter.com/AaronBastani/status/1080624782008291333?s=20

So he's saying Corbyn is NOT defying calls for a second referendum?

I'm confused by the labour position on all this. Not least the cries of betrayal previously about Corbyn following the actual party policy rather than what people wished was party policy. So now I don't know whether he is changing position or not or if he's just pulling a May, putting off a decision or sticking to one position long past the point it is no longer viable.

I think almost certainly the latter. I think the important thing to remember about Corbyn is that he's one of the few politicians who is totally uninterested in Brexit. Even his ideological allies are either Lexiteers or fear Brexit would fatally hobble a Corbyn government. They care about it in some way. Corbyn's political worldview is subtly different though in that he essentially believes that whatever problems exist can be solved merely by a socialist government with the will to solve them. As such, it's a political irritant rather than the great issue of the day. He's just going to moan until it happens and then claim his own brand of declarative socialism is the only antidote.

Nail and head. This is far closer to the truth than the suggestions that Corbyn is some sort of secret strong leaver, despite having said or written next to nothing on the subject during a very long political career.

Corbyn has been speaking and voting against the EU since the early seventies?

Unless Labour voters really start to shift to the LDs Corbyn will continue to rule out EUref2 and get away with it

AmpfieldAndy said:

Corbyn can act with impunity because Labour supporters are going nowhere no matter what he does on Brexit. There won’t be any pressure on him to change until his poll ratings drop and maybe not even then if he still has McCluskey’s support.

If the Tories had any brains they would roll out a domestic policy agenda to try and attract Labour support, That would too much to expect for May’s merry band of muppets.

The course on Brexit has been set by the EU. The choices are no deal or May’s deal. May’s deal has nothing going for it. Just a shame she and Hammond have been so negligent in failing to prepare for no deal. May should have gone for a trade deal right from the start and made everything else conditional upon it. Too late now.

No Deal is by far the most damaging Brexit outcome both for the economy and the Union, there is little you can do to prepare for it other than try and minimise the damage as the government is now trying to prepare for.

On house building, tuition fees, the NHS, business rates cuts, an Amazon tax etc there has been a proactive government domestic agenda since the general election

NickPalmer said:

edmundintokyo said:

I don't get it, wasn't this always his position?

Yes, and it's also the party position agreed at the conference, for all that the Guardian would like it to be different. The sequencing is clear and it hasn't changed:

1. Offer May a deal on Labour terms (permanent customs union is the simple one, but if she engaged there would be haggling over other things). The EU has said repeatedly that it's specifically the "no permanent customs union" red line that prevents reopening the deal. However, she's not interested and the clock is ticking. So...

2. Vote down the May deal. It's the only one on the table, and needs to be considered. It offers a low-grade second-class associate membership. There are probably enough votes to reject it clearly.

3. Block a No Deal by putting in killer amendments to every bit of legislation in sight which will paralyse government if we simply leave without a deal. These amendments have majority support in Parliament.

4. Seek a General Election through a VONC, to offer people a choice of delayed A50 and new negotiations without May's red lines. This is, frankly, likely to fail to get a majority.

5. Seek a second referendum, as other alternatives have been exhausted.

The Guardian and People's Vote campaigners (who bear an uncanny resemblance to a subset of the anti-Corbyn people) want to lift step 5 to step 1. But that means "join the Remain conspiracy" - it fails to show that we've made reasonable efforts to respect the referendum. Reach step 5 and there's a defensible case that we've offered alternative implementations of Leave and merely rejected the one that nearly everyone agrees is unacceptable.

One can disagree, but it's just silly to argue that Corbyn is defying the party by this. It's what we've agreed to do, and he's sticking to it.

Permanent Customs Union of course means we cannot ever do our own trade deals so May is not going to agree to that, other than that Corbyn basically agrees with the Deal

malcolmg said:

ydoethur said:

NickPalmer said:

3. Block a No Deal by putting in killer amendments to every bit of legislation in sight which will paralyse government if we simply leave without a deal. These amendments have majority support in Parliament.

That wouldn't block a no-deal Brexit, just make the chaos far worse if one happened. The only way to guarantee we leave with a deal is to vote for the one on offer.

no deal is better than a bad deal, Theresa said so!

No dance is better than a bad dance, but that didn't stop her!

timmo said:

HYUFD said:

Unless Labour voters really start to shift to the LDs Corbyn will continue to rule out EUref2 and get away with it

And that won't happen with Uncle Vince in charge..

I doubt it makes a differences leads the LDs more if Corbyn backs Brexit until Brexit Day with no EUref2 then a shift from Labour to LD could occur

JonWC said:

HYUFD said:

williamglenn said:

MarqueeMark said:

What is the earliest date by which a General Election couldn't be held before March 29th? Given May shows no signs whatsoever of calling such an election or withdrawing Article 50, and Corbyn won't facilitate a second referendum, then that is when the penny is going to drop for Remainers - it's Hard Brexit or May's Shit Deal.

Pop Quiz, Remainers: What do you do?

Revocation requires the least time of any of the options, so Remainers have the upper hand in any game of brinkmanship.

Revocation will lead to near Civil War without a referendum and a UKIP/Tommy Robinson/Farage party surge

It would even with the referendum of course, especially if the "People's vote" managed to rig the vote in any of one of the ways they seem awfully keen on. Suppose we had a remain option which won. Somewhere between 30% and 50% of the population would be somewhere between mildly irritated and absolutely incandescent. There aren't many things that tip people over the edge more surely than a feeling of being cheated and/or betrayed.

Every time someone believes they have been undercut by an immigrant worker, or they feel their child gets no attention because 25pct of the primary class don't speak English.. well you know how that ends.

If Remain wins, most likely if No Deal looks a strong prospect, then yes as least 40%+ of voters will be furious and UKIP or a successor will exploit that

On topic, it’s quite funny that punters - as well as his true believers - were actually labouring under the misapprehension that Corbyn might engineer a route to Remain.

Foxy said:

HYUFD said:

Foxy said:

Beverley_C said:

williamglenn said:

MarqueeMark said:

What is the earliest date by which a General Election couldn't be held before March 29th? Given May shows no signs whatsoever of calling such an election or withdrawing Article 50, and Corbyn won't facilitate a second referendum, then that is when the penny is going to drop for Remainers - it's Hard Brexit or May's Shit Deal.

Pop Quiz, Remainers: What do you do?

Revocation requires the least time of any of the options, so Remainers have the upper hand in any game of brinkmanship.

I really hope you are right, but i am preparing for WTO.

I reckon that Labour will hold their line, and that Mays Deal will be voted down by her own party. There is no sign that Labour MPs are weakening on this, and SNP and LD look solid too.

So popcorn time, while stocks last, and No Deal a definite possibility, depending on May's reaction.

Except the only way Corbyn gets a general election is if the Deal goes through and the DUP back a VONC.

If we go to No Deal Corbyn will be responsible for refusing to back May's Deal while most Tory MPs back it and he will likely get no general election either as the DUP will still back the Tories

Nah. May is in the driving seat when it happens. Corbyn is merely the backseat driver.

I thought Corbyn was a motorcyclist? Therefore surely he's in the sidecar?

CarlottaVance said:

williamglenn said:

kle4 said:

CarlottaVance said:

Aaron is on the job:

https://twitter.com/AaronBastani/status/1080624782008291333?s=20

So he's saying Corbyn is NOT defying calls for a second referendum?

I'm confused by the labour position on all this. Not least the cries of betrayal previously about Corbyn following the actual party policy rather than what people wished was party policy. So now I don't know whether he is changing position or not or if he's just pulling a May, putting off a decision or sticking to one position long past the point it is no longer viable.

Apparently this is what he thinks Corbyn’s Brexit policy is.
https://twitter.com/aaronbastani/status/1076952646500712448?s=21

When I first saw this tweet I thought it was a spoof!

But they’re deadly serious. Deadly.

Is Brazil still considered one of international socialism’s comrades now Bolsonaro has taken over?

Looks like that food and coffee will need to come from somewhere else.

Casino_Royale said:

On topic, it’s quite funny that punters - as well as his true believers - were actually labouring under the misapprehension that Corbyn might engineer a route to Remain.

The true believers have stilted the markets ever since the campaign. I still can’t believe I got 15/1 at 10pm on referendum day...

Everything we have seen of May, and every constitutional avenue, suggests that we’re leaving on March 29th. To deny that takes a special kind of denial.

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Doethur, just one more occasion where a morris dancer would've done a better job!

Theresa would have told us we could whiffle for it.

Have a good morning.

HYUFD said:

Foxy said:

Beverley_C said:

williamglenn said:

MarqueeMark said:

What is the earliest date by which a General Election couldn't be held before March 29th? Given May shows no signs whatsoever of calling such an election or withdrawing Article 50, and Corbyn won't facilitate a second referendum, then that is when the penny is going to drop for Remainers - it's Hard Brexit or May's Shit Deal.

Pop Quiz, Remainers: What do you do?

Revocation requires the least time of any of the options, so Remainers have the upper hand in any game of brinkmanship.

I really hope you are right, but i am preparing for WTO.

I reckon that Labour will hold their line, and that Mays Deal will be voted down by her own party. There is no sign that Labour MPs are weakening on this, and SNP and LD look solid too.

So popcorn time, while stocks last, and No Deal a definite possibility, depending on May's reaction.

Except the only way Corbyn gets a general election is if the Deal goes through and the DUP back a VONC.

If we go to No Deal Corbyn will be responsible for refusing to back May's Deal while most Tory MPs back it and he will likely get no general election either as the DUP will still back the Tories

If May secures her deal and parliament brings her down, I wouldn't fancy Corbyn's chances in an early GE

williamglenn said:

MarqueeMark said:

What is the earliest date by which a General Election couldn't be held before March 29th? Given May shows no signs whatsoever of calling such an election or withdrawing Article 50, and Corbyn won't facilitate a second referendum, then that is when the penny is going to drop for Remainers - it's Hard Brexit or May's Shit Deal.

Pop Quiz, Remainers: What do you do?

Revocation requires the least time of any of the options, so Remainers have the upper hand in any game of brinkmanship.

They'd have to change the government, first.

Well, Thank you and Good Night Jeremy Corbyn.

So, if you are a Rejoiner/Remainer you can't vote Labour.

Any markets on Highest LibDem poll rating in the next three months?

Interesting. The UK leaving the EU with no agreement before 1 April this year has been suspended as a market on Ladbrokes (was 4). Other odds on similar matters are unchanged.

Cicero said:

Well, Thank you and Good Night Jeremy Corbyn.

So, if you are a Rejoiner/Remainer you can't vote Labour.

Any markets on Highest LibDem poll rating in the next three months?

The Lib who’s?

More seriously, of course it should. But I won’t hold my breath with Uncle Vince.

Cicero said:

Well, Thank you and Good Night Jeremy Corbyn.

So, if you are a Rejoiner/Remainer you can't vote Labour.

Any markets on Highest LibDem poll rating in the next three months?

But, I think Stephen Bush is correct that Corbyn's followers will forgive him over the EU, because of his left wing record.

Foxy said:

HYUFD said:

Foxy said:

Beverley_C said:

williamglenn said:

MarqueeMark said:

What is the earliest date by which a General Election couldn't be held before March 29th? Given May shows no signs whatsoever of calling such an election or withdrawing Article 50, and Corbyn won't facilitate a second referendum, then that is when the penny is going to drop for Remainers - it's Hard Brexit or May's Shit Deal.

Pop Quiz, Remainers: What do you do?

Revocation requires the least time of any of the options, so Remainers have the upper hand in any game of brinkmanship.

I really hope you are right, but i am preparing for WTO.

I reckon that Labour will hold their line, and that Mays Deal will be voted down by her own party. There is no sign that Labour MPs are weakening on this, and SNP and LD look solid too.

So popcorn time, while stocks last, and No Deal a definite possibility, depending on May's reaction.

Except the only way Corbyn gets a general election is if the Deal goes through and the DUP back a VONC.

If we go to No Deal Corbyn will be responsible for refusing to back May's Deal while most Tory MPs back it and he will likely get no general election either as the DUP will still back the Tories

Nah. May is in the driving seat when it happens. Corbyn is merely the backseat driver.

If we head for No Deal the Tories vote will be largely unchanged, Tory Remainers will blame Corbyn for rejecting May's Deal and the Tories may even win back some voters from UKIP.

Labour on the other hand may well see leakage of Remainers to the LDs in an effort to stop Brexit

IanB2 said:

Dura_Ace said:

HYUFD said:

williamglenn said:

MarqueeMark said:

What is the earliest date by which a General Election couldn't be held before March 29th? Given May shows no signs whatsoever of calling such an election or withdrawing Article 50, and Corbyn won't facilitate a second referendum, then that is when the penny is going to drop for Remainers - it's Hard Brexit or May's Shit Deal.

Pop Quiz, Remainers: What do you do?

Revocation requires the least time of any of the options, so Remainers have the upper hand in any game of brinkmanship.

Revocation will lead to near Civil War without a referendum and a UKIP/Tommy Robinson/Farage party surge

What does "near civil war" actually mean? The British population is completely disarmed and under continuous broad spectrum surveillance.

Just the usual hyperbole from HY. UKIP is barely functioning.

More likely, we'd elect a full slate of loons to the EU Parliament, and the issue would be revisited in the future.

FF43 said:

Impressive. Sooner rather than later IMO China will send a manned mission to the moon.

https://twitter.com/XHscitech/status/1080693756477632513

Small irony. China firewalls Twitter.

A man on Mars would be more impressive, the US sent a man to the Moon decades ago

HYUFD said:

FF43 said:

Impressive. Sooner rather than later IMO China will send a manned mission to the moon.

https://twitter.com/XHscitech/status/1080693756477632513

Small irony. China firewalls Twitter.

A man on Mars would be more impressive, the US sent a man to the Moon decades ago

Underlines how backwards we are. We couldn’t do this.

NickPalmer said:

edmundintokyo said:

I don't get it, wasn't this always his position?

Yes, and it's also the party position agreed at the conference, for all that the Guardian would like it to be different. The sequencing is clear and it hasn't changed:

1. Offer May a deal on Labour terms (permanent customs union is the simple one, but if she engaged there would be haggling over other things). The EU has said repeatedly that it's specifically the "no permanent customs union" red line that prevents reopening the deal. However, she's not interested and the clock is ticking. So...

2. Vote down the May deal. It's the only one on the table, and needs to be considered. It offers a low-grade second-class associate membership. There are probably enough votes to reject it clearly.

3. Block a No Deal by putting in killer amendments to every bit of legislation in sight which will paralyse government if we simply leave without a deal. These amendments have majority support in Parliament.

4. Seek a General Election through a VONC, to offer people a choice of delayed A50 and new negotiations without May's red lines. This is, frankly, likely to fail to get a majority.

5. Seek a second referendum, as other alternatives have been exhausted.

The Guardian and People's Vote campaigners (who bear an uncanny resemblance to a subset of the anti-Corbyn people) want to lift step 5 to step 1. But that means "join the Remain conspiracy" - it fails to show that we've made reasonable efforts to respect the referendum. Reach step 5 and there's a defensible case that we've offered alternative implementations of Leave and merely rejected the one that nearly everyone agrees is unacceptable.

One can disagree, but it's just silly to argue that Corbyn is defying the party by this. It's what we've agreed to do, and he's sticking to it.

Thank you. Very useful. Pity there isn't a notice board somewhere where it can be pinned because my sense is that very few people know this. Labour's policy understood by most is one of unprincipled opportunism which is not appealing to Remainers or Leavers.

tlg86 said:

Jonathan said:

HYUFD said:

FF43 said:

Impressive. Sooner rather than later IMO China will send a manned mission to the moon.

https://twitter.com/XHscitech/status/1080693756477632513

Small irony. China firewalls Twitter.

A man on Mars would be more impressive, the US sent a man to the Moon decades ago

Underlines how backwards we are. We couldn’t do this.

Concorde was a far more impressive achievement (if not commercially).

We couldn’t do that today either.

Jonathan said:

HYUFD said:

FF43 said:

Impressive. Sooner rather than later IMO China will send a manned mission to the moon.

https://twitter.com/XHscitech/status/1080693756477632513

Small irony. China firewalls Twitter.

A man on Mars would be more impressive, the US sent a man to the Moon decades ago

Underlines how backwards we are. We couldn’t do this.

Blame the voters. The vision has been set out by a UKIP candidate, and he was spurned, spurned, by the electorate.

https://www.eadt.co.uk/news/election-2017-south-suffolk-ukip-hopeful-aims-for-interstellar-travel-1-5026406

OldKingCole said:

There are, according to the Guardian, severe staff shortages developing in some, indeed many, parts of industry and commerce. Presumably these shortages will lead to the wage increases, which in some at least sectors are well overdue.
Said shortages are alleged to be due to EU workers 'going home' or not coming.

Hmm.

I think a temporary labour shortage combined with a recession is quite likely. It's a lag effect. In time the economic contraction will reduce the demand for labour. Migration is neutral overall for employment. Migrants generate just enough economic activity to support their own jobs, although increased migration does result in indigenous population getting better and better paid jobs as migrants bottom feed.

It will be felt in the tax base which will contact overall and in any services that require low paid labour. We can expect the NHS to have less money and fewer services.

Jonathan said:

HYUFD said:

FF43 said:

Impressive. Sooner rather than later IMO China will send a manned mission to the moon.

https://twitter.com/XHscitech/status/1080693756477632513

Small irony. China firewalls Twitter.

A man on Mars would be more impressive, the US sent a man to the Moon decades ago

Underlines how backwards we are. We couldn’t do this.

... but in conjunction with Europe we could, and did, send a satellite and lander to a comet.
https://www.gov.uk/government/news/end-of-an-era-uks-role-in-european-rosetta-mission-now-complete

Jonathan said:

HYUFD said:

FF43 said:

Impressive. Sooner rather than later IMO China will send a manned mission to the moon.

https://twitter.com/XHscitech/status/1080693756477632513

Small irony. China firewalls Twitter.

A man on Mars would be more impressive, the US sent a man to the Moon decades ago

Underlines how backwards we are. We couldn’t do this.

You couldn't be more wrong if you tried. We don't have the capability to *launch* rockets (although that might come soon for small nanosats or cubesats from Scotland or Cornwall), but much of that is down to our geographic position.

However we are a major player in satellites. Our space market was work £13.7 billion in 2014/5, about 7% of the global market. That's a major success story considering we don't have launch services.

But tbf launchers are sexy, but not where the money is. This is why SpaceX is starting a constellation of satellites: that's where the money is. And we're very well placed in that market - and more so as the market moves towards the smaller satellites that we excel in.

As another example, an Israeli company is planning to land a probe on the Moon in the nextt few months, launched (I think) from a Falcon 9. The rockets are just the trucks. What matters is the cargo, and we could easily do this if there was political will.

But we probably shouldn't.

JosiasJessop said:

Jonathan said:

HYUFD said:

FF43 said:

Impressive. Sooner rather than later IMO China will send a manned mission to the moon.

https://twitter.com/XHscitech/status/1080693756477632513

Small irony. China firewalls Twitter.

A man on Mars would be more impressive, the US sent a man to the Moon decades ago

Underlines how backwards we are. We couldn’t do this.

You couldn't be more wrong if you tried. We don't have the capability to *launch* rockets (although that might come soon for small nanosats or cubesats from Scotland or Cornwall), but much of that is down to our geographic position.

However we are a major player in satellites. Our space market was work £13.7 billion in 2014/5, about 7% of the global market. That's a major success story considering we don't have launch services.

But tbf launchers are sexy, but not where the money is. This is why SpaceX is starting a constellation of satellites: that's where the money is. And we're very well placed in that market - and more so as the market moves towards the smaller satellites that we excel in.

As another example, an Israeli company is planning to land a probe on the Moon in the nextt few months, launched (I think) from a Falcon 9. The rockets are just the trucks. What matters is the cargo, and we could easily do this if there was political will.

But we probably shouldn't.

That’s a big ‘if’. We can’t even manage the political will to do choo choo trains anymore.