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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Corbyn’s “Brexit goes ahead if LAB won snap election” arouses furious response from many witihn his party
Corbyn faces furious Labour backlash over backing Brexit https://t.co/BXrnYJbJnk
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https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/dec/23/labour-leadership-is-at-rock-bottom-wont-be-forgiven-for-conniving-in-rightwing-brexit
Now in charge, they can’t quite do that.
We are beginning to see the left having to make choices and alienate people. It turns out the choices never went away.
No doubt they will twist and turn and claim that it’s someone else’s fault and they are the good guys, but reality is catching up with them.
Corbyn is a red Tory now.
The one Clive Lewis retweeted means a lot more, the FBPE crowd have always been very anti Corbyn.
https://twitter.com/hugorifkind/status/1076420025668517888
It will be interesting to see if this has sufficient 'cut through' to affect polling.
https://twitter.com/SpaJw/status/1076474121549217794
https://twitter.com/labourlewis/status/1076639601597526016?s=21
Some strange actions for those ideologically obsessed with Brexit in the same way as the ERG are. I realise it makes good centrist propaganda but in terms of predicting real world actions it has the flaw of being untrue....
The Labour faithful are now the metropolitan hipsters and middle-class. That's been the case for some years. They don't want associated with the smelly working class.
Edit: Not a bad electoral move, it shores up the Northern seats while the London seats will carry on voting Labour. It's a fashion thing.
Doesn’t show Remainers in a good light either and rather highlights why they lost in the first place. That tolerant, urbane, outward looking image they like to project shattered for the myth it is on the fact that they actually lost and can’t live with that democratic verdict of the electorate.
Edit - in many ways, Clive Lewis encapsulates the electoral problem for Labour. When he won Norwich South (amazingly, just three and a half years ago) he took it off the back of a Liberal Democrat collapse, where even allowing for churn around 50% of their vote seems to have migrated to Labour. In 2010 it was a genuine three-way marginal. In 2015 I'm guessing tuition fees were just a bit of an issue.
Now let's say 40% of his vote last year was solidly Remain (probably an underestimate) and this migrates back to the yellows. Suddenly, even though he has a huge majority, he seat looks vulnerable again to either of his challengers.
So I'm not surprised he's a bit nervous.
It can oppose Brexit in order to retain its pro-EU base without losing too many floating anti-EU votes only if Brexit goes ahead despite that opposition - the anti-EU voters won’t care too much once it’s over.
What do you think - can Labour oppose Brexit *and* get more than 30% at the next GE if Brexit doesn’t happen?
No Brexit and Corbyn wiped out is the ideal for them.
Edit: Said for a bit Corbyn was waiting for others to call the referendum. May has been trying the line for a while you just want to stop Brexit.
It would also give the centrists the perfect excuse to take Labour back to New Labour days after the wipeout they would declare it 1983 all over again, being left wing can't get elected etc.
We would have to wait decades for another opportunity.
If we remember John Smith was a slippery and duplicitous opportunist rather than the great statesman Blair's later critics made him out to be, it's even longer.
https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2017/07/11/why-people-voted-labour-or-conservative-2017-gener
Brexit didn't even get a category, probably in other.
I also think that if we do Remain - and I see the chances of that as being vanishingly small - the Tories will end up competing with UKIP for pro-Brexit votes and that will see them move ever further to the right. This will cause them ongoing internal problems. On top of which, two Brexit parties in a FPTP system is not a great way to harvest seats.
But the biggest danger for Labour is that Brexit is 99.9% likely to occur and the party under the current management will never be forgiven by a lot of its usual voters if it has not done all it possibly can to oppose it.
Don't worry, comrades. Under the Supreme Leader's wise guidance, everyone will enjoy above average wages as the socialist paradise is ushered in.
Corbyn is playing a sensible role on Brexit, if the government come to the conclusion that they have to have a referendum I would then expect Corbyn to support it even if it isn't policy to do so before looking for a GE.
Although some people have suggested an election could happen soon. Either way I don't think the leadership can give away the you betrayed Brexit line to the Conservatives.
My most generous interpretation is that he really does not give a shit.
In reality I suspect his outriders are looking forward to a little bit of Tory induced chaos to see him into no10 with a radical mandate. And he goes along with it, because he doesn’t give a shit.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-40630242
But they're a one-trick pony. Perhaps a boost for the Greens? Oh well, there goes air travel until they realise it may affect their ski trips.
Only joking really (sort of).
When it comes to the next election those who supported Labour will probably still see those issues they chose Labour for as relevant and if given a choice between Labour, Tory or putting their vote to a third candidate that can't win will choose Labour. Brexit will affect some Labour voters, maybe put off those who are only just about happy enough to vote Labour if Labour do wrong. Generally though the government will be blamed for policies passed even if Labour receive some anger for say, not opposing hard enough or supporting people's vote.
My guess is Clive Lewis worry is more Labour winning the next election, where even small margins could make the difference rather than retaining his seat which I could see happening in almost any Labour Brexit policy circumstances.
I realise the people's vote poll had some interesting things happening to Labour and Lib Dem vote shares in certain conditions but I'd believe it when I saw it..
Rachael Swindon posts lots of tweets (40 a day) having spent time in the morning reviewing source material (the Independent, sqwarkbox, canary etc). She spends time in private chat rooms where memes and attack lines are shared (with input from Labour Party representatives).
This output attracts a large number of followers from whom she regularly solicits donations to support her lifestyle. At the same time she claims benefits.
There’s a very fine line between what she is doing and paid work imho. (I’ve no idea about the legality just looking at the fact pattern)
He won't change position on Brexit, and not just because he's a Leaver by inclination. The unicorn renegotiation strategy is expressly designed to prevent him from having to come down off the fence, and either back May's Deal or work against it (whether that means going for Revocation or backing the People's Vote lot.) Pretending that he can effect a cakeist solution that both fulfils all the wishes of the Brexit vote and leaves our economic access to the EU single market essentially unaltered is obviously a fantasy, but it represents his desperate attempt to avoid becoming unpopular with a meaningful minority of his own supporters, and more especially of Labour voters out in the country at large.
Having spent a lifetime accusing other people of betrayal and immoral action, typically in the most pious and outraged tone possible, it can't exactly be easy to face up to having the brickbats hurled in your direction at long last. That's where Corbyn finds himself, and he's obviously trying to put off the rain of missiles for as long as possible.
In the end, of course, it won't work.
"Leavers have not attempted to include Remain supporters in their post-referendum vision of Brexit."
It's probably because your self-importance always grates. You lost but it's still important to include your view in the final decision. If Corbyn wins the next GE, will he think … "I must consider the Conservative or the LD or the SNP views before I do anything?
Now, lets see … a lot of people wanted to Remain, so we'll remain or only pretend to leave. Is that better?
PS Not aimed at you personally, because you've always been clear the result should be honoured, much as you dislike it.
Jeremy Corbyn like is ideological mentor Tony Benn was always against the EU, he should have campaigned openly for leave in 2016, he might have lost some new Labour urbanites but he would have kept more of the traditional working class Labour supporters.
He'd have been closer in the polls and the 2017 General Election might not have happened, giving him a much better chance in 2020 than he will have in 2022.
In my case, it's on the full swell, waiting to be pulled out for a climax which may involve a super coupler.
(But had a generous expense account)
Isn’t there a big difference between saying Brexit will go ahead (when in opposition) and actually presiding over it (when unexpectedly in government)? There may be more chance of stopping it by not promising too early to try and stop it.
The obvious problem Labour has here is the membership and bulk of MPs are misaligned with a chunk of very important voters. It's all very well having 500,000 members, but if they don't represent your core vote, it's going to end in trouble.
The writing has been on the wall for years. In fact, without Corbyn as Labour leader, Brexit wouldn't have happened.
So we have Corbyn standing up for what proved to be a very successful Manifesto and the majority of Labour MPs wanting to ditch it. That majority now want to overturn both the basis on which they were elected and the 2016 vote. Its consistency of a sort I suppose.
Not only did it win over a large number of Remainers from the Conservatives, but also from the pro-EU Greens and Lib Dems.
Overall, nearly two-thirds of 2015 Greens went to Labour, as well as about a quarter of Liberal Democrats.
When did any Pro-EU Prime Minister ever think … "I must be careful to keep my anti-EU voters on board."
Tony Blair, for example?
Edit - by the way, just for you. Look at the second photo...
Gavin Williamson: UK ship in Ukraine 'sends message to Russia'
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-46657470
Denied their moment in the sun by a cruel twist of fate...
Edit: The above sounds a little mean, I don't dislike the 3 but they wouldn't have made done a jot more than Corbyn to that result.
That wouldn't have blown all Labour leavers out the water - far from it - but would probably have been enough to tip the referendum result the other way.
But near Christmas there is less news so it's more noticeable.
OK, 2004 was a dazzling exception that would have been news at any time, like Haiti.
https://twitter.com/independent/status/1076609522578477057?s=21
Not far off the level of Lib Dem voters. Add into this consideration where Labour voters live.
https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2016/06/27/how-britain-voted
Party Remain Leave
Lab 65% 35%
Lib D 68% 32%
It shows the Lib Dems had fifty voters in 2016.
People didn't elect Corbyn as leader of Labour to fight Brexit, there weren't two surges in membership, to elect him and then re elect him to fight Brexit. People elected him because they want a left wing Labour leader. Brexit isn't going to take away from any of those people's desire.
There are people whose vote it will affect and Labour's Brexit policy could heavily influence the next election but the affection felt for him and the reason he has such strong support is not because of Brexit.
Edit: And this is why politicians often refuse to answer hypotheticals...
Try not to snigger too much at the intro...
https://youtu.be/Dl3eZk9J3xQ