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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Which will happen first? TMay to step down as PM or the UK to

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  • IanB2 said:

    Lots of countryside around Gatwick to do the recovery and recharging without being spotted. This has got to be a deliberate protest; whoever it was ran it throughout the night and today is the busiest travelling day for the Xmas getaway

    It will be environmentalists stopping emissions.
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 4,976
    edited December 2018
    Leaving aside the relevance of the comparison, I'm unclear which court she believes Moses was found guilty by.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 20,177


    It will be environmentalists stopping emissions.
    This is clearly going to happen again now its been so succesful isn’t it?
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 14,333
    Depending on the weather I think shooting a drone down is actually quite hard. Birdshot is only good out to about 35-40m so you probably want something like a .22LR.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,235

    This is clearly going to happen again now its been so succesful isn’t it?
    One can't deny it's been extremely effective, seem to have been no contingency plans for it whatsoever.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 14,333

    This is clearly going to happen again now its been so succesful isn’t it?
    I hope it becomes a nationwide craze like Pokemon Go.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,651


    It will be environmentalists stopping emissions.
    Or it could be a trial run for something more sinister. Airplanes grounded. The police diverted looking for the drone operator. Meanwhile, hundreds, thousands of people are trapped inside an airport and anyone can just turn up and ..... well, use your imagination.
  • Quite so - at the very least she won't want to resign today. Labour must be furious (see leak source!), though I note that Nick Brown gave evidence for her as a character witness.

    But in a message sent to other Labour MPs on various WhatsApp groups this morning and leaked to The Times, Ms Onasanya hinted she would not quit, saying “this was not his end but rather the beginning of the next chapter” of her “story”, as it was with Jesus.
    When's the sentencing?
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,651
    What on earth has it got to do with him?
  • Daniel might be able to explain to Ms Onasanya that the writing is on the wall.

    Mene, Mene, Tekel, Upharsin.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,132
    Cyclefree said:

    Or it could be a trial run for something more sinister. Airplanes grounded. The police diverted looking for the drone operator. Meanwhile, hundreds, thousands of people are trapped inside an airport and anyone can just turn up and ..... well, use your imagination.
    Err...why would you need a trial run? I hope you are not the only one with such a thought.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 14,333
    Cyclefree said:
    It was his idea in the first place. Dugin's Osnovy geopolitiki is his fucking koran.
  • glwglw Posts: 10,367
    edited December 2018

    This is clearly going to happen again now its been so succesful isn’t it?
    I would be very surprised if the police aren't keeping a very close eye on Extinction Rebellion.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,538
    I suppose this thing at Gatwick it's a bit like Die Hard 2 (without the fake snow) - is that a Christmas movie?
  • When's the sentencing?
    There's been no date set yet. Perhaps we could have an Onasanya advent calendar when the judge obliges us.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,132
    Cyclefree said:
    If it doesn't happen he'll be wanting a refund?
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,538

    There's been no date set yet. Perhaps we could have an Onasanya advent calendar when the judge obliges us.
    If the judge has a sense of humour they'll give her an 11 month stretch.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,601

    Quite so - at the very least she won't want to resign today. Labour must be furious (see leak source!), though I note that Nick Brown gave evidence for her as a character witness.

    But in a message sent to other Labour MPs on various WhatsApp groups this morning and leaked to The Times, Ms Onasanya hinted she would not quit, saying “this was not his end but rather the beginning of the next chapter” of her “story”, as it was with Jesus.
    I suppose there is the answer to my question if she would own up now the trial is done
  • sarissasarissa Posts: 2,108
    RobD said:

    A gatling cannon - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Phalanx_CIWS
    20 calibre rounds at 50/second and a 2.2 mile range, if fired at low trajectory say in the direction of the M4/M25, could make rush hour interesting!
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,651
    IanB2 said:

    Err...why would you need a trial run? I hope you are not the only one with such a thought.
    So do I. But I am assuming those with sinister intentions do some form of reconnaissance and planning.

    Anyway it doesn’t bear thinking about.

    In more joyful news I have just been given as a Xmas surprise tickets to the Olympia Horse Show this evening so I shall be quaffing champagne and watching horse dancing and jumping and there is some stuff going on with dogs too. Sounds wonderful! I am a sucker for horse shows and agricultural shows and stuff like that.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,601
    Cyclefree said:
    He loves to have fun is all.
  • Cyclefree said:
    Seems like he's entitled to his opinion, he paid for the campaign...
  • Of course, the space cannon could've easily taken out the drone by now.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,651
    kle4 said:

    I suppose there is the answer to my question if she would own up now the trial is done
    She clearly hasn’t got the message. It’s Jeremy who’s the Messiah not her.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,132
    Latest from the BoE:

    These uncertainties are weighing on UK financial markets. UK bank funding costs and non-financial high-yield corporate bond spreads have risen sharply and by more than in other advanced economies. UK-focused equity prices have fallen materially. Sterling has depreciated further, and its volatility has risen substantially. Market-based indicators of inflation expectations in the United Kingdom have risen, including at longer horizons.

    The further intensification of Brexit uncertainties, coupled with the slowing global economy, has also weighed on the near-term outlook for UK growth. Business investment has fallen for each of the past three quarters and is likely to remain weak in the near term. The housing market has remained subdued. Indicators of household consumption have generally been more resilient, although retail spending may be slowing.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,132
    Gatwick now closed unti 4pm earliest
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,235
    tlg86 said:

    If the judge has a sense of humour they'll give her an 11 month stretch.
    Day release to vote with St Jeremy.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    edited December 2018
    An interesting Skydata poll in relation to the Welsh Assembly_
    National Assembly Regional Ballot

    Lab 39
    Con 23
    PC 22
    AA 7
    UKIP 4
    LD 2
    Others 3

    7-14 Dec, 1,014 people online

    AA is the Abolish the Assembly group. On those figures they will gain representation next time. Were I still a resident , I would certainly support them.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,856
    Dura_Ace said:

    It was his idea in the first place. Dugin's Osnovy geopolitiki is his fucking koran.
    I saw one of Putin's MPs on Russian TV the other week saying that Russia was the only country holding out against a unipolar world controlled by America. I'm not sure their worldview is ready for China becoming a superpower.
  • IanB2 said:

    I am not convinced the PM would have a deal that right now still stands some chance of being the resolution if that person had instead been Leadsom, or Boris, or Davis....
    We have to deal with reality, not counterfactual speculation.
  • CiceroCicero Posts: 3,402
    Cyclefree said:
    Well, he quite likely paid for it...
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,132
    edited December 2018

    We have to deal with reality, not counterfactual speculation.
    The reality is that she has done better than anyone else would have, imo. Which is not to say she has handled it brilliantly; a more colleagiate approach from the outset might have increased her chances of getting the deal through. But the challenge was near impossible to start with.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,519
    Endillion said:

    Leaving aside the relevance of the comparison, I'm unclear which court she believes Moses was found guilty by.
    As far as I know, none of them perverted the course of justice.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207

    I saw one of Putin's MPs on Russian TV the other week saying that Russia was the only country holding out against a unipolar world controlled by America. I'm not sure their worldview is ready for China becoming a superpower.
    With all those lovely natural resources in Russian far east you would have thought they would realise where the greater strategic threat comes from.

  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    Cyclefree said:

    She clearly hasn’t got the message. It’s Jeremy who’s the Messiah not her.
    She is just a silly woman.....

    Tm Jezbollah
  • Carolus_RexCarolus_Rex Posts: 1,414
    kle4 said:

    I suppose there is the answer to my question if she would own up now the trial is done
    I wouldn't want to be her counsel trying mitigate after that. Is she raving mad?
  • IanB2 said:

    The reality is that she has done better than anyone else would have, imo.
    That’s your opinion. Nothing to do with reality.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,519

    I wouldn't want to be her counsel trying mitigate after that. Is she raving mad?
    What is there to say, when your client has revealed herself to be an unrepentant serial liar?
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 4,976

    I wouldn't want to be her counsel trying mitigate after that. Is she raving mad?
    Does your second sentence not give some indication on direction of travel for the first?
  • Of course, the space cannon could've easily taken out the drone by now.

    And half of Crawley. Whether that is a bonus or a cost I leave to the reader.
  • tlg86 said:

    I suppose this thing at Gatwick it's a bit like Die Hard 2 (without the fake snow) - is that a Christmas movie?

    Time for a remake. The Brexit Britain drone version.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,132
    edited December 2018
    That bondholders aren't very confident about the company's future and have been heavily selling

    Edit/ and that if you are confident about Debenhams then their bonds are an early new year bargain

  • It will be environmentalists stopping emissions.
    Or a couple of bored Sussex stoners getting off on leading the news for 18 hours while they do nothing more than lurk by a lock-up with a remote controller.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,362
    IanB2 said:

    Gatwick now closed unti 4pm earliest

    Just as it is getting dark. What could go wrong...
  • In her defence she can cite that the first jury didn’t find her guilty*.

    She’s fully justified in exhausting the appellate procedures.

    *To an appropriate standard.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,538

    Or a couple of bored Sussex stoners getting off on leading the news for 18 hours while they do nothing more than lurk by a lock-up with a remote controller.
    "Punks stealing luggage."
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    TBC, this a resumption of the programmed business from a few weeks ago. Five days of business were programmed, only three were ordered. So there's two days of debate remaining, including disposing of whatever amendments Mr Speaker selects.

    Since this a continuation of the previous business, the Grieve Amendment remains in effect. Which is to say, when MPs reject the Meaningful Vote is when Parliament gets to take control of the process.
  • Endillion said:

    Leaving aside the relevance of the comparison, I'm unclear which court she believes Moses was found guilty by.
    Exodus 2:11-15 - I'll give her that one, allowing for the judicial standards of the time.

    NB he was guilty.
  • Bonds are redeemable at 100.

    Therefore if you buy them at <100, that is one part of your return.

    Lower prices = higher return = implies higher risk.

    They will also pay interest, but the assumption of the tweet is that in the interest is the same.
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    In English? The markets believe that Debenhams is only weeks away from collapse.
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    Sean_F said:


    What is there to say, when your client has revealed herself to be an unrepentant serial liar?

    "Why the hell did we let this go to trial?"
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    Would the fact that the first jury did not convict her be likely to have an impact on sentencing?
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,677
    Cyclefree said:
    Doesn't want all that social media effort put to waste.
  • I’m flexible and open to new positions.

    https://twitter.com/mistaoowl/status/1074317613705113601?s=21
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 4,976

    Exodus 2:11-15 - I'll give her that one, allowing for the judicial standards of the time.

    NB he was guilty.
    Hmm. Maybe if she'd said "by the judicial processes of their day", but "by the courts" is stretching it a bit...
  • justin124 said:

    Would the fact that the first jury did not convict her be likely to have an impact on sentencing?

    Depends how close it was.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    justin124 said:

    Would the fact that the first jury did not convict her be likely to have an impact on sentencing?

    No - but it might impact her appeal.

  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    justin124 said:

    Would the fact that the first jury did not convict her be likely to have an impact on sentencing?

    A mistrial is neither a conviction nor acquittal, so doesn't tell you much. Especially as they won't have been party to the Jury's deliberations.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527

    Depends how close it was.
    As much as anything the case does highlight the arbitrary 'luck of the draw' nature of justice. A third jury might have acquitted her.
  • justin124 said:

    As much as anything the case does highlight the arbitrary 'luck of the draw' nature of justice. A third jury might have acquitted her.
    Nah. If I recall correctly an overwhelming majority of the first jury voted to convict.

    She got lucky that one juror fell ill and the threshold to convict effectively increased.
  • Depends how close it was.
    Why?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,782
    An interesting comparison.
    Though the Don is more of an overweight, lumbering kind of dinosaur.

    https://www.politico.com/story/2018/12/20/oh-no-the-day-trump-learned-to-tweet-1070789
    "The moment I found out Trump could tweet himself was comparable to the moment in ‘Jurassic Park’ when Dr. Grant realized that velociraptors could open doors,” recalled McConney, who was the Trump Organization’s director of social media from 2011 to 2017. “I was like, ‘Oh no.”"...
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,362
    edited December 2018
    justin124 said:

    As much as anything the case does highlight the arbitrary 'luck of the draw' nature of justice. A third jury might have acquitted her.
    Was it a hung jury? You only need three of the twelve jurors to not go with the majority decision.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527

    Nah. If I recall correctly an overwhelming majority of the first jury voted to convict.

    She got lucky that one juror fell ill and the threshold to convict effectively increased.
    I wasn't aware that such information was divulged.
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    I'm not saying Brexit is making everyone lose their minds, but:

    https://twitter.com/labourwhips/status/1075740230223847424
  • Why?
    See my post at 1.12pm
  • See my post at 1.12pm
    I mean, why would there be a difference in sentence (except for time served, although I doubt she was on remand) between this conviction and if the first jury had convicted?
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,538

    Nah. If I recall correctly an overwhelming majority of the first jury voted to convict.

    She got lucky that one juror fell ill and the threshold to convict effectively increased.
    Surely that information is known only to the jury?
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    Surely jury deliberations are meant to remain secret and anyone revealing details would be liable to prosecution?
  • I mean, why would there be a difference in sentence (except for time served, although I doubt she was on remand) between this conviction and if the first jury had convicted?
    Because she didn’t plead guilty at the earliest opportunity which resulted in two costly trials.

    She ain’t getting a discount for that.
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    Kuenssberg was saying last night that May has got Olly Robbins working another magic unicorn to get the DUP onside which shows us several things.

    1) Olly Robbins is a wonderful beneficiary of white male privilege. Every time he's fucked up, May has rewarded him with failing upwards.

    2) Theresa May is incapable of learning from past experience.

    3) The Cabinet is still holding out for a Unicorn hero to save them from their grand no-deal bluff.

    4) The Cabinet do not believe the DUP or the Tory remainers are bluffing about a VONC.
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    Presumably that only affects remote controlled drones, not autonomous ones.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 14,333

    I’m flexible and open to new positions.

    https://twitter.com/mistaoowl/status/1074317613705113601?s=21

    I work well on my own and in teams.
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    Dura_Ace said:

    I work well on my own and in teams.
    I prefer to work alone.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,946
    Dura_Ace said:

    I work well on my own and in teams.
    I am adaptable and willing to take on any role if asked.
  • Does anyone know if Hizzoner is sentencing her and her brother concurrently?
  • tlg86 said:

    Surely that information is known only to the jury?
    The judge can work it out if the jury ask for a direction or if the judge changes from accepting a unanimous verdict to lower threshold.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,538

    The judge can work it out if the jury ask for a direction or if the judge changes from accepting a unanimous verdict to lower threshold.
    Would it be the same judge for the second trial?
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    dixiedean said:

    I am adaptable and willing to take on any role if asked.
    I like to keep it in the family.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,920
    Does anyone understand Andrea Leadsom's plan for a managed No Deal?

    Apparently it still involves negotiating a deal with a transition period, but presumably no backstop? Is she suggesting we should give up anything in return for the EU giving up the backstop? If not, why should the EU agree to her "No Deal Deal"?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,235
    edited December 2018
    Edit: Fake account lol
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,920
    edited December 2018
    Pulpstar said:

    https://twitter.com/FionaOnasanya/status/1075422858971701251

    She's appealing; how the flying f*ck did she pass her LPC ?

    Privelidge?
  • Carolus_RexCarolus_Rex Posts: 1,414
    Pulpstar said:

    https://twitter.com/FionaOnasanya/status/1075422858971701251

    She's appealing; how the flying f*ck did she pass her LPC ?

    I think that's a parody account. She's not an ex MP... yet....
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,235
    FAKE NEWS alert !
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,538
    Pulpstar said:

    Edit: Fake account lol

    That's not her account if that's your source.
  • Scott_P said:
    Gauke’s judgement was shown to be fundamentally flawed on the Worboys case. Why would anyone expect it to be different on Brexit or anything else.
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679
    Cyclefree said:
    Well he did pay for it.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,519
    justin124 said:

    As much as anything the case does highlight the arbitrary 'luck of the draw' nature of justice. A third jury might have acquitted her.
    I doubt it, the evidence was overwhelming.

    In the two trials, 21 out of 23 jurors believed her to be guilty.
This discussion has been closed.