politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Survation poll of CON Councillors finds Javid leading over Joh

Sandpit said:

Bloody hell, I’d completely forgotten just how cold and wet and miserable is a British December!

So have we. This year is particularly mild.

ydoethur said:

OldKingCole said:

ydoethur said:

So, we're off the B word for the moment and what are the topics of discussion?

Corbyn being allegedly racist and sexist.

A Labour MP being convicted of conspiracy to pervert the course of justice.

Slightly leavened by the Government's shambolic immigration policy.

And there in a nutshell is why Corbyn is the wrong leader for Labour.

Quite right. Although, TBH, I don't see what's so wrong with Corbyn's sotto voce; May IS being rather silly, and her panto jokes, followed often by a smirk to her supporters I personally find irritating, and would probably find extremely so if I were on the other side of the House.
When did she last treat any (serious) intervention by an opposition MP seriously?

I think the problem is you can't boast about your record on gender equality and then be caught making remarks that can reasonably be considered sexist.

Edit - also, there is a difference between 'silly' and 'stupid'.

I think that the rather exagerrated response to a stupid comment is just going to antagonise further the relationship between the parties. The chance of TM getting support from Labour to get a Deal passed over her own backbenchers dropped as a result.

Both parties being led by pigheaded factionalists doesn't bode well for a good outcome.

Roger said:

Johnson must be Corbyn's dream. The only LIKELY candidate he'd be cetain to beat.

(Obviously he'd also beat Gove and Rees Mogg)

I don't think he would beat Johnson. Basically it would be a straight fight between two people with essentially similar backgrounds, attitudes and behavioural characteristics. It would come down to a tussle over who dominated the airwaves more.

So who would win? The intelligent and experienced buffoon who is well known and a large number for whatever reason find funny, or the shall we say politely intellectually challenged and naive one who was unheard of three years ago and whom a majority of the population find faintly sinister?

edmundintokyo said:

Donny43 said:

There's a group of MPs who are rejecting the deal not on its merits but because there is a deal which is ten times as large as that one.

I guess you're talking about the opposition, and this is true, but:

1) Oppositions gonna oppose

2) If you want them to do something other than oppose, you have to actually work with them; When TMay failed to get a majority a lot of people suggested she should be doing Brexit as a cross-party thing, but she decided she was going to lock them out and instead optimize everything for keeping her own party together instead. You could argue that if the whole thing goes to shit it's their fault for not sucking up the least bad option she gave them, but generally the voters will blame the government for things that happen when they're governing.

Three months before "no deal by accident" is well past the time an opposition should be primarily motivated by who the voters are going to blame.

Unless, of course, "no deal by accident" wouldn't actually be that bad.

Foxy said:

ydoethur said:

OldKingCole said:

ydoethur said:

So, we're off the B word for the moment and what are the topics of discussion?

Corbyn being allegedly racist and sexist.

A Labour MP being convicted of conspiracy to pervert the course of justice.

Slightly leavened by the Government's shambolic immigration policy.

And there in a nutshell is why Corbyn is the wrong leader for Labour.

Quite right. Although, TBH, I don't see what's so wrong with Corbyn's sotto voce; May IS being rather silly, and her panto jokes, followed often by a smirk to her supporters I personally find irritating, and would probably find extremely so if I were on the other side of the House.
When did she last treat any (serious) intervention by an opposition MP seriously?

I think the problem is you can't boast about your record on gender equality and then be caught making remarks that can reasonably be considered sexist.

Edit - also, there is a difference between 'silly' and 'stupid'.

I think that the rather exagerrated response to a stupid comment is just going to antagonise further the relationship between the parties. The chance of TM getting support from Labour to get a Deal passed over her own backbenchers dropped as a result.

Both parties being led by pigheaded factionalists doesn't bode well for a good outcome.

If Corbyn can't definitively say that he wasn't calling his own backbenchers stupid it might actually have increased.

Casino_Royale said:

Yellow_Submarine said:

Peterborough is bad news for europhiles. Until the result is known it'll it freeze in place Jezz's ' Red Brexit ' strategy. If Labour win it will be validation of it. If Labour lose ( a mid term by-election to an 8 year old government ) it will be framed as metropolitan Labour being out of touch with ' real ' Britain.

Europhiles least worst hope is a mildly europhile Labour candidate who wins big after a campaign focused on everything except Brexit. Peterbourgh can never be a good result for Remainers but the killing field could be levelled.

But the bottom line is Theresea May got lucky today. Her strategy is to burn time and until Peterborough is held the Corbyn inner circle will be happy to help her do it.

She desperately needs an extra loyal MP.

I'd have thought she'd want the by election asap and will throw the kitchen sink at it.

That rather depends on who the Tories put up. Someone campaigning against her deal could be distinctly unhelpful (although tbf its fate will likely be decided before the election comes around).

Apologies if someone mentioned this earlier but adding those totals you get 376 "hardline" Brexit (Mogg+Davis+Johnson+McVey + Raab), 335 "managed no deal / Canada etc" types (Gove + :Leadsom + Javid + Hunt (despite his recent conversion, I have put him in here) + Mourdant) and 87 softer types (Rudd)).

Remainers in the Conservative Parliamentary party may have to swallow a more pro-Brexit candidate than they like to stop the hardliners taking over if it went to a vote of the membership.

CarlottaVance said:

You know how we're concluding that there couldn't conceivably bigger fecking eejits than our Parliamentarians....

https://twitter.com/AlexInAir/status/1075653421993123840

Can’t we get those idiots under laws we already have about endangering aircraft?

It’s time for them to go to jail. That will stop it.

Good morning, everyone.

Mordaunt would be a fantastic successor to May.

CarlottaVance said:

You know how we're concluding that there couldn't conceivably bigger fecking eejits than our Parliamentarians....

https://twitter.com/AlexInAir/status/1075653421993123840

20+ flights diverted to all sorts of places, glad I wasn’t flying in to LGW.

Looks like some sort of well organised protest designed to shut the airport, which is very worrying and likely to not be the last time this happens. I wonder if the idiots realise they can get five years for endangering aircraft?

Edit. At least 52 flights diverted, that’s going to cause absolute chaos
https://twitter.com/flightradar24/status/1075614884212207616

ydoethur said:

CarlottaVance said:

You know how we're concluding that there couldn't conceivably bigger fecking eejits than our Parliamentarians....

https://twitter.com/AlexInAir/status/1075653421993123840

Surely half a dozen security guards with air guns would do the trick?

If it's bad now, wait until millions of little buggers open their Christmas presents....

Nigelb said:

ydoethur said:

CarlottaVance said:

You know how we're concluding that there couldn't conceivably bigger fecking eejits than our Parliamentarians....

https://twitter.com/AlexInAir/status/1075653421993123840

Surely half a dozen security guards with air guns would do the trick?

Shotguns, surely ?
The police saying they couldn’t use guns because of ‘stray bullets’ seemed strange to me.

Airguns. You get Moran drama that way...

Sandpit said:

CarlottaVance said:

You know how we're concluding that there couldn't conceivably bigger fecking eejits than our Parliamentarians....

https://twitter.com/AlexInAir/status/1075653421993123840

20+ flights diverted to all sorts of places, glad I wasn’t flying in to LGW.

Looks like some sort of well organised protest designed to shut the airport, which is very worrying and likely to not be the last time this happens. I wonder if the idiots realise they can get five years for endangering aircraft?

Flew in to Gatwick last night, arrived 30min before it closed. Scary when you think about it. Drones probably already in the air.

TheKitchenCabinet said:

Apologies if someone mentioned this earlier but adding those totals you get 376 "hardline" Brexit (Mogg+Davis+Johnson+McVey + Raab), 335 "managed no deal / Canada etc" types (Gove + :Leadsom + Javid + Hunt (despite his recent conversion, I have put him in here) + Mourdant) and 87 softer types (Rudd)).

Remainers in the Conservative Parliamentary party may have to swallow a more pro-Brexit candidate than they like to stop the hardliners taking over if it went to a vote of the membership.

Has Boris Johnson come out for "hardline" Brexit? I would have thought he was more likely to favour "managed no deal"....

The Isle of Wight Ferry is the only way to travel. No drones or customs, and the Full Monty Breakfast is a delight, unless you are a cardiologist.

MarqueeMark said:

TheKitchenCabinet said:

Apologies if someone mentioned this earlier but adding those totals you get 376 "hardline" Brexit (Mogg+Davis+Johnson+McVey + Raab), 335 "managed no deal / Canada etc" types (Gove + :Leadsom + Javid + Hunt (despite his recent conversion, I have put him in here) + Mourdant) and 87 softer types (Rudd)).

Remainers in the Conservative Parliamentary party may have to swallow a more pro-Brexit candidate than they like to stop the hardliners taking over if it went to a vote of the membership.

Has Boris Johnson come out for "hardline" Brexit? I would have thought he was more likely to favour "managed no deal"....

It's a fair point but I was thinking more of which camp he would be perceived to be in i.e. in the Rees-Mogg camp than the Gove etc one

Foxy said:

The Isle of Wight Ferry is the only way to travel. No drones or customs, and the Full Monty Breakfast is a delight, unless you are a cardiologist.

Ahem.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-hampshire-45932147

Although the best way of getting to the Isle of Wight is on the hovercraft from Southsea. Vrooom!

IanB2 said:

TheKitchenCabinet said:

Apologies if someone mentioned this earlier but adding those totals you get 376 "hardline" Brexit (Mogg+Davis+Johnson+McVey + Raab), 335 "managed no deal / Canada etc" types (Gove + :Leadsom + Javid + Hunt (despite his recent conversion, I have put him in here) + Mourdant) and 87 softer types (Rudd)).

Remainers in the Conservative Parliamentary party may have to swallow a more pro-Brexit candidate than they like to stop the hardliners taking over if it went to a vote of the membership.

If you have decided that managed no deal is any different from hard Brexit, then you have fallen for their propaganda. Politicians are much better at thinking up ways to package shit arrangements than they are in managing their way out of them.

I was thinking more about the perception of the camps they would be perceived to be in, rather than making a comment on the validity of their claims.

Jonathan said:

Foxy said:

The Isle of Wight Ferry is the only way to travel. No drones or customs, and the Full Monty Breakfast is a delight, unless you are a cardiologist.

Always a joy to return from the island. Like time travelling back from the 1950s.

That's not quite accurate. Some parts of the Isle have now reached the 1980's...

Foxy said:

The Isle of Wight Ferry is the only way to travel. No drones or customs, and the Full Monty Breakfast is a delight, unless you are a cardiologist.

You must be a fast eater!

AmpfieldAndy said:

What on earth has Javid actually ever done. Johnson would appeal to Tory heartlands but he is such a loose cannon that there is no chance of him actually winning the marginals.

The only sane choices would be Raab or Mordaunt.

The sanity quotient depends on whether it's the MPs or the members making the choice.

Foxy said:

AmpfieldAndy said:

What on earth has Javid actually ever done. Johnson would appeal to Tory heartlands but he is such a loose cannon that there is no chance of him actually winning the marginals.

The only sane choices would be Raab or Mordaunt.

Mordaunt would certainly make a splash.

https://www.itv.com/news/meridian/update/2014-01-18/penny-mordaunt-mp-out-of-splash-after-painful-dive/

Are you saying they should chuck her in at the deep end?

Jonathan said:

Foxy said:

AmpfieldAndy said:

What on earth has Javid actually ever done. Johnson would appeal to Tory heartlands but he is such a loose cannon that there is no chance of him actually winning the marginals.

The only sane choices would be Raab or Mordaunt.

Mordaunt would certainly make a splash.

https://www.itv.com/news/meridian/update/2014-01-18/penny-mordaunt-mp-out-of-splash-after-painful-dive/

Are you saying they should chuck her in at the deep end?

Yes , its sink or swim for the Tories.

Jonathan said:

Foxy said:

The Isle of Wight Ferry is the only way to travel. No drones or customs, and the Full Monty Breakfast is a delight, unless you are a cardiologist.

Always a joy to return from the island. Like time travelling back from the 1950s.

Doesn't that depend on where you live?

IanB2 said:

Jonathan said:

Foxy said:

The Isle of Wight Ferry is the only way to travel. No drones or customs, and the Full Monty Breakfast is a delight, unless you are a cardiologist.

Always a joy to return from the island. Like time travelling back from the 1950s.

Doesn't that depend on where you live?

True. Imagine going from the Isle of Wight to Islington, and thinking how charmingly retro this 30s timewarp looks...

Jonathan said:

Sandpit said:

CarlottaVance said:

You know how we're concluding that there couldn't conceivably bigger fecking eejits than our Parliamentarians....

https://twitter.com/AlexInAir/status/1075653421993123840

20+ flights diverted to all sorts of places, glad I wasn’t flying in to LGW.

Looks like some sort of well organised protest designed to shut the airport, which is very worrying and likely to not be the last time this happens. I wonder if the idiots realise they can get five years for endangering aircraft?

Flew in to Gatwick last night, arrived 30min before it closed. Scary when you think about it. Drones probably already in the air.

You got lucky, thousands of people are going to be in random hotels this morning as their airlines work out how to get them where they’re supposed to be going.

Unless they’re the huge 10kg six-rotor camera platform drones, they’re unlikely to do such serious damage to an aircraft that would lead to it crashing, but the authorities are rightly somewhat risk averse and always react to anything unauthorised flying in controlled airspace.

If, as it looks, this is some form of protest, they could keep it going all day until the police find them. A lot of the modern hobby drones (in the £1k-£3k range) can be flown several kilometres from the user, and can be programmed to fly a set path and return without needing a signal from the ground and can fly for half an hour at 30mph or so on a battery.

ydoethur said:

Morning Mr Dancer.

Your book's been posting again, and it seems to have had one too many last night.

A biting comment...

AmpfieldAndy said:

What on earth has Javid actually ever done. Johnson would appeal to Tory heartlands but he is such a loose cannon that there is no chance of him actually winning the marginals.

The only sane choices would be Raab or Mordaunt.

A very narrow and.... eccentric definition of sanity.

Bromptonaut said:

Depressing meeting at DfT yesterday. Civil servants preparing for Operation Yellowhammer for ‘no deal’ Brexit. Normal activity on hold, making plans to turn Kent into a lorry park. Expectations of more budget cuts in post-Brexit spending review.

On the plus side staff will have more time to plan more unicorn lanes on the motorways across the sunlit uplands.

Yet isn't the more likely forecast that export traffic will plummet due to all the new non tariff barriers?

Sandpit said:

Jonathan said:

Sandpit said:

CarlottaVance said:

You know how we're concluding that there couldn't conceivably bigger fecking eejits than our Parliamentarians....

https://twitter.com/AlexInAir/status/1075653421993123840

20+ flights diverted to all sorts of places, glad I wasn’t flying in to LGW.

Looks like some sort of well organised protest designed to shut the airport, which is very worrying and likely to not be the last time this happens. I wonder if the idiots realise they can get five years for endangering aircraft?

Flew in to Gatwick last night, arrived 30min before it closed. Scary when you think about it. Drones probably already in the air.

You got lucky, thousands of people are going to be in random hotels this morning as their airlines work out how to get them where they’re supposed to be going.

Unless they’re the huge 10kg six-rotor camera platform drones, they’re unlikely to do such serious damage to an aircraft that would lead to it crashing, but the authorities are rightly somewhat risk averse and always react to anything unauthorised flying in controlled airspace.

If, as it looks, this is some form of protest, they could keep it going all day until the police find them. A lot of the modern hobby drones (in the £1k-£3k range) can be flown several kilometres from the user, and can be programmed to fly a set path and return without needing a signal from the ground and can fly for half an hour at 30mph or so on a battery.

If it's a protest, how long would we expect it to go on for before we find out what it's about?

ydoethur said:

Sandpit said:

Jonathan said:

Sandpit said:

CarlottaVance said:

You know how we're concluding that there couldn't conceivably bigger fecking eejits than our Parliamentarians....

https://twitter.com/AlexInAir/status/1075653421993123840

20+ flights diverted to all sorts of places, glad I wasn’t flying in to LGW.

Looks like some sort of well organised protest designed to shut the airport, which is very worrying and likely to not be the last time this happens. I wonder if the idiots realise they can get five years for endangering aircraft?

Flew in to Gatwick last night, arrived 30min before it closed. Scary when you think about it. Drones probably already in the air.

You got lucky, thousands of people are going to be in random hotels this morning as their airlines work out how to get them where they’re supposed to be going.

Unless they’re the huge 10kg six-rotor camera platform drones, they’re unlikely to do such serious damage to an aircraft that would lead to it crashing, but the authorities are rightly somewhat risk averse and always react to anything unauthorised flying in controlled airspace.

If, as it looks, this is some form of protest, they could keep it going all day until the police find them. A lot of the modern hobby drones (in the £1k-£3k range) can be flown several kilometres from the user, and can be programmed to fly a set path and return without needing a signal from the ground.

Surely a bigger concern would be if they've got explosives strapped to them? That's only got to hit an engine and there's a problem.

The hobby drones can’t carry too much weight, but yes a drone carrying explosives could be a problem. While planes can continue to fly happily with an engine out, a bomb flown into one might damage the controls and systems on the wing.

Thankfully today’s incident sounds more like the Plane Stupid mob or an environmental group, as opposed to anyone actually trying to bring down a plane.

OldKingCole said:

ydoethur said:

So, we're off the B word for the moment and what are the topics of discussion?

Corbyn being allegedly racist and sexist.

A Labour MP being convicted of conspiracy to pervert the course of justice.

Slightly leavened by the Government's shambolic immigration policy.

And there in a nutshell is why Corbyn is the wrong leader for Labour.

Quite right. Although, TBH, I don't see what's so wrong with Corbyn's sotto voce; May IS being rather silly, and her panto jokes, followed often by a smirk to her supporters I personally find irritating, and would probably find extremely so if I were on the other side of the House.
When did she last treat any (serious) intervention by an opposition MP seriously?

PMQs always has both sides being silly. It's only an issue if he said it because he would never, ever accept a defence from a tory for saying such a thing. So Tories are making a meal of it, for political reasons, but labour know damn well they'd not give an opponent benefit of the doubt.

It reminds me a little of Brown and Duffy. There was no dispute in what he had said there but people did defend him on the basis he was right, even though he apologised and said he was wrong. Here we know Corbyn believes the alleged words were wrong to say because he claims to have said something else (maybe he did) not just 'look i did say it but she was/i didntsay it but she was acting stupid) but once again some, not even necessarily superfans of his, are defending what he himself is not defending.

Leads I’m on R4, really rather weak. Not entirely sure she understands what’s going on.

SeanT said:

I'd go for Javid. He would, potentially, wallop Corbyn. He would also, yet again, prove that when it comes to reality rather than theory, the Tories are way more progressive than Labour (who STILL haven't elected a woman leader, let alone a female PM)

My paradoxical worry is that, in his gratitude, he would be too rightwing and anti-migrant.

The man is a useless halfwit, get a grip.

malcolmg said:

SeanT said:

I'd go for Javid. He would, potentially, wallop Corbyn. He would also, yet again, prove that when it comes to reality rather than theory, the Tories are way more progressive than Labour (who STILL haven't elected a woman leader, let alone a female PM)

My paradoxical worry is that, in his gratitude, he would be too rightwing and anti-migrant.

The man is a useless halfwit, get a grip.

Morning Malcolm!

Bromptonaut said:

Deleted. Too much information.

I shall purge my brain. All been there.

malcolmg said:

SeanT said:

I'd go for Javid. He would, potentially, wallop Corbyn. He would also, yet again, prove that when it comes to reality rather than theory, the Tories are way more progressive than Labour (who STILL haven't elected a woman leader, let alone a female PM)

My paradoxical worry is that, in his gratitude, he would be too rightwing and anti-migrant.

The man is a useless halfwit, get a grip.

So a major step up then Malcolm?

Sandpit said:

ydoethur said:

Sandpit said:

Jonathan said:

Sandpit said:

CarlottaVance said:

You know how we're concluding that there couldn't conceivably bigger fecking eejits than our Parliamentarians....

https://twitter.com/AlexInAir/status/1075653421993123840

20+ flights diverted to all sorts of places, glad I wasn’t flying in to LGW.

Looks like some sort of well organised protest designed to shut the airport, which is very worrying and likely to not be the last time this happens. I wonder if the idiots realise they can get five years for endangering aircraft?

Flew in to Gatwick last night, arrived 30min before it closed. Scary when you think about it. Drones probably already in the air.

You got lucky, thousands of people are going to be in random hotels this morning as their airlines work out how to get them where they’re supposed to be going.

Unless they’re the huge 10kg six-rotor camera platform drones, they’re unlikely to do such serious damage to an aircraft that would lead to it crashing, but the authorities are rightly somewhat risk averse and always react to anything unauthorised flying in controlled airspace.

If, as it looks, this is some form of protest, they could keep it going all day until the police find them. A lot of the modern hobby drones (in the £1k-£3k range) can be flown several kilometres from the user, and can be programmed to fly a set path and return without needing a signal from the ground.

Surely a bigger concern would be if they've got explosives strapped to them? That's only got to hit an engine and there's a problem.

The hobby drones can’t carry too much weight, but yes a drone carrying explosives could be a problem. While planes can continue to fly happily with an engine out, a bomb flown into one might damage the controls and systems on the wing.

Thankfully today’s incident sounds more like the Plane Stupid mob or an environmental group, as opposed to anyone actually trying to bring down a plane.

Have those protestors who chained themselves to a plane been sentenced yet? I've been trying to think of why I should feel sorry for them for facing possible prison sentences as there's been multiple sympathetic stories focusing on them, but I'm struggling.

Earlier this year, new laws came into force banning any and all drones from flying above 400ft and within 1km of airport boundaries.

Drone users who flout the boundary restrictions face an unlimited fine, up to five years in prison, or both.

https://www.itv.com/news/2018-12-20/what-is-the-law-around-flying-drones/