Richard_Nabavi said:

CarlottaVance said:

Apols if posted before:

https://twitter.com/HenryNewman/status/1074635079153012736

It's a very good thread - note especially 13, which is spot-on.

Yes its been atrocious - the critics have made all the running.

15 should also focus minds from all this heroic displacement activity:

https://twitter.com/HenryNewman/status/1074646780938203136

grabcocque said:

Good morning Theresa May fans.

So we hear that Mrs May has decided to drive the country full speed towards the cliff edge.

So, all of you on here, who have praised her stubborness and indefatigability, congratulations! This is what you've been allowing to happen in your name.

Not that I would dream of naming names, of course. *cough*BigGNabaviCarlottaHyufdOGH*cough*

Since you were absolutely convinced she'd be gone by now, you'll forgive us if we take your pronouncements with a pinch of salt.....

TGOHF said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

CarlottaVance said:

Apols if posted before:

https://twitter.com/HenryNewman/status/1074635079153012736

It's a very good thread - note especially 13, which is spot-on.

Prediction - when May's deal passes - Remainers will be the most furious not the ERG.

T really INA to May's deal. That was obvious from the very first moment.

kinabalu said:

Cyclefree said:

If you want to have a very good idea of how Corbyn will govern, the last 24 hours have been very instructive. Forget all the hoo-ha about putting down a motion, not putting it down etc. That is froth.

What is important is this:

- he and those around him are very good indeed at getting resolutions through which give them exactly what they want while simultaneously giving others the impression that they have got what they want (eg the Conference resolution on Brexit)

- he will use every loophole and clever trick to avoid doing anything he does not want to do. Whether it is because he does not want to Remain or whether because he hopes a chaotic no deal exit will benefit Labour, his actions yesterday are designed to ensure that this becomes the inevitable destination.

Those who think that Corbyn is a thicko who does not understand the ins and outs of the WA or EU law and that he will have to moderate his actions when in power or will be kept under control by moderate Labour MPs or the SNP are guilty of wishful thinking. What he may lack for in intelligence he makes up for in cunning and a single-minded focus on what he wants to achieve and he and his advisors are - and will be - far better at using the levers of power within Labour and government than those who think that he is, somehow, on their side.

My impression of Corbyn is that he is far from a 'thicko' but nevertheless is not as clever as I like my Prime Ministers to be. If he gets in I think he will cede domestic policy to John McDonnell who strikes me as clear thinking, pragmatic and driven. I foresee something of a Tony & Gordon type double act, JM running the country, JC immersing himself in other matters. Perhaps they will fall out and try to re-bond over an ice cream. It's quite a thought.

It is a frightening thought. He is thick though, but his intellectual vacuousness is mirrored by the ERG who might well assist in getting one of the most unsuitable people ever to become our head of government

SeanT said:

I'm actually looking forward to doing my tax returns. As a welcome distraction from the horrible, looming likelihood of No Deal. So that's a wholly unexpected Brexit Dividend.

Before I go, what's the consensus on PB of the consequences of No Deal? Here's the options in my head right now:

1. A minor bump: a few days of chaos, then small deals done, maybe a brief recession, but a quick recovery
2. A major bump: chaos for weeks, the small deals take months, we have a fairly nasty recession, it takes 3 to 5 years to recover, but we do recover
3. A total clusterfuck. The chaos goes on for a year, or more, no deals are done, the property market crashes, the recession wipes 5% off GDP or more - the UK is destabilished as Scotland votes for indy, again, and Corbyn reaches power, and so on, and so forth
4. Something even worse, or something - remarkably - better, or something I haven't thought of?

The thing that concerns me - perhaps with good reason, perhaps not - are the unknown unknowns.

People seem to concentrate on the visible, big-ticket items: will the planes be able to fly, will the medicines get into the country. But our modern world relies on massive amounts of small-ticket items that would be easy to be fubared. These are sometimes reliant on arcane systems that just work because they've always worked. It'd be easy for some of these to have significant consequences for some industries.

Much would depend on the politicians and civil servants being adults. Sadly, precious few of ours are, and I doubt the EU is much better.

TGOHF said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

CarlottaVance said:

Apols if posted before:

https://twitter.com/HenryNewman/status/1074635079153012736

It's a very good thread - note especially 13, which is spot-on.

Prediction - when May's deal passes - Remainers will be the most furious not the ERG.

Yes, there's a lot of #PeoplesVote Vote AgainYouThickosAndGetItRightThisTime wishful thinking going on - a few weeks away from the Westminster hothouse and getting buttonholed on the reality of No Deal may find much greater acceptance among the ERG types for the Deal on the Table. Its the only Deal in town.

CarlottaVance said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

CarlottaVance said:

Apols if posted before:

https://twitter.com/HenryNewman/status/1074635079153012736

It's a very good thread - note especially 13, which is spot-on.

Yes its been atrocious - the critics have made all the running.

15 should also focus minds from all this heroic displacement activity:

https://twitter.com/HenryNewman/status/1074646780938203136

Yes it's a good thread, although he spins out "people are coming round to the deal, which is the only safe way to leave; otherwise we don't leave (and Labour has no option at all)" over a lot of tweets.

Dura_Ace said:

CarlottaVance said:

Beverley_C said:

Dura_Ace said:

CarlottaVance said:

IanB2 said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Sean_F said:

Maybe Boris will try to outbid him, by proposing war against the EU.

We could seize Calais back, and then we'd be able to sort out the no-deal customs arrangements at that end as well as the Dover end. Time for bold thinking!

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=WMpDn9VIDLM

France has "4 aircraft carriers" LOL! They have one, if you count Charles de Gaulle, which may be charitable....

CdG, Mistral, Tonnerre and Dixmude.

Do theirs have aircraft on them?

https://twitter.com/HMSQnlz/status/1054890400828350466

That is one ugly as frig ship. The F35B is a handsome beast though.

I saw some pictures of it at sea the other day and thought exactly the opposite: it looks beautiful. Better than the Nimitz class, at least ...

JosiasJessop said:

Dura_Ace said:

CarlottaVance said:

Beverley_C said:

Dura_Ace said:

CarlottaVance said:

IanB2 said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Sean_F said:

Maybe Boris will try to outbid him, by proposing war against the EU.

We could seize Calais back, and then we'd be able to sort out the no-deal customs arrangements at that end as well as the Dover end. Time for bold thinking!

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=WMpDn9VIDLM

France has "4 aircraft carriers" LOL! They have one, if you count Charles de Gaulle, which may be charitable....

CdG, Mistral, Tonnerre and Dixmude.

Do theirs have aircraft on them?

https://twitter.com/HMSQnlz/status/1054890400828350466

That is one ugly as frig ship. The F35B is a handsome beast though.

I saw some pictures of it at sea the other day and thought exactly the opposite: it looks beautiful. Better than the Nimitz class, at least ...

I like the split superstructure - makes sense from an operational point of view and stops her looking top heavy - form following function.

SeanT said:

https://twitter.com/PolhomeEditor/status/1075022809586380800

"When siren sounds...."

SeanT said:

https://twitter.com/PolhomeEditor/status/1075022809586380800

A sensible government would never have allowed us to get into this pointless and ridiculous mess

SeanT said:

TOPPING said:

SeanT said:

I'm actually looking forward to doing my tax returns. As a welcome distraction from the horrible, looming likelihood of No Deal. So that's a wholly unexpected Brexit Dividend.

Before I go, what's the consensus on PB of the consequences of No Deal? Here's the options in my head right now:

1. A minor bump: a few days of chaos, then small deals done, maybe a brief recession, but a quick recovery
2. A major bump: chaos for weeks, the small deals take months, we have a fairly nasty recession, it takes 3 to 5 years to recover, but we do recover
3. A total clusterfuck. The chaos goes on for a year, or more, no deals are done, the property market crashes, the recession wipes 5% off GDP or more - the UK is destabilished as Scotland votes for indy, again, and Corbyn reaches power, and so on, and so forth
4. Something even worse, or something - remarkably - better, or something I haven't thought of?

There is not going to be no deal. So pts 1-4 are moot.

Please tell me how. PLEASE. Because, the way I see it, No Deal now looks very possible. Very VERY possible.

At worst May will extend A50 but as per Henry Newman's Twitter thread, people are coming round to the deal. It was put to me that there needed to be a way for deal opponents to climb down with honour and this seems to be happening.

SeanT said:

Great. Just effing great.

I guess next month it will be time to put my money into foreign bonds and shares, right?

Not obvious, actually. Because if we do get a deal agreed, and even more if there's some way in which a referendum or revocation of Article 50 comes about, the pound will soar, and so the sterling value of foreign investments will fall. At the same time, UK-focused stocks like housebuilders, LLoyds Bank etc would do very well.

The FTSE-100 is looking relatively attractive, because valuations are depressed and a lot of the earnings come from abroad, so would be worth more if sterling falls. On the other hand, if things go well and there is a deal or revocation, sentiment towards the UK stock market will improve, which may offset some of the downside to the FTSE-100 from the rise in sterling.

Needless to say all this also has to be considered against a bearish-looking market worldwide. I'm keeping a fairly high proportion of cash at the moment, plus some foreign investments, plus some UK ones, as diverse as possible.

SeanT said:

TOPPING said:

SeanT said:

TOPPING said:

SeanT said:

I'm actually looking forward to doing my tax returns. As a welcome distraction from the horrible, looming likelihood of No Deal. So that's a wholly unexpected Brexit Dividend.

Before I go, what's the consensus on PB of the consequences of No Deal? Here's the options in my head right now:

1. A minor bump: a few days of chaos, then small deals done, maybe a brief recession, but a quick recovery
2. A major bump: chaos for weeks, the small deals take months, we have a fairly nasty recession, it takes 3 to 5 years to recover, but we do recover
3. A total clusterfuck. The chaos goes on for a year, or more, no deals are done, the property market crashes, the recession wipes 5% off GDP or more - the UK is destabilished as Scotland votes for indy, again, and Corbyn reaches power, and so on, and so forth
4. Something even worse, or something - remarkably - better, or something I haven't thought of?

There is not going to be no deal. So pts 1-4 are moot.

Please tell me how. PLEASE. Because, the way I see it, No Deal now looks very possible. Very VERY possible.

At worst May will extend A50 but as per Henry Newman's Twitter thread, people are coming round to the deal. It was put to me that there needed to be a way for deal opponents to climb down with honour and this seems to be happening.

But:

1. She would need a reason to extend A50, and that would either be a referendum or a GE, both of which she has foresworn
2. If she pushes her Deal through, the DUP will collapse the government and we will get a Corbyn PM, I don't think the Tories will allow that, either

That's why we end up with No Deal. Horrible partisan politics. God Help Us.

Read the Newman thread (it was linked to above/below). The DUP may get the assurances they need. Certainly the direction of travel is encouraging.

There really by any sensible (!) estimation is no alternative to the deal. And people will slowly but surely fall into line with that thinking.

Richard_Nabavi said:

SeanT said:

Great. Just effing great.

I guess next month it will be time to put my money into foreign bonds and shares, right?

Not obvious, actually. Because if we do get a deal agreed, and even more if there's some way in which a referendum or revocation of Article 50 comes about, the pound will soar, and so the sterling value of foreign investments will fall. At the same time, UK-focused stocks like housebuilders, LLoyds Bank etc would do very well.

The FTSE-100 is looking relatively attractive, because valuations are depressed and a lot of the earnings come from abroad, so would be worth more if sterling falls. On the other hand, if things go well and there is a deal or revocation, sentiment towards the UK stock market will improve, which may offset some of the downside to the FTSE-100 from the rise in sterling.

Needless to say all this also has to be considered against a bearish-looking market worldwide. I'm keeping a fairly high proportion of cash at the moment, plus some foreign investments, plus some UK ones, as diverse as possible.

I think continued low sterling will be a long term feature for sometime. The country continues to be obsessed with consumption at a point where it is running out of money. While goods will be saved by the agreement high value services will take a hit. The city will lose jobs the question is only how many. This will further hit out trade deficit. It will take time before companies have the confidence to start to re-invest. I expect a grim economy for several years to come.

kinabalu said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Either the backstop is meaningless in which case why insist upon it?

Or it is meaningful in which case it is a democratic outrage and human rights abomination.

It is meaningful obviously. It creates a watertight guarantee (as opposed to an airy fairy aspiration) that there will not be a hard border in Ireland.

In practice it means that if we wish to implement an FTA for goods which diverges significantly from the EU modus operandi then we must at the same time implement a method by which the border can be policed electronically rather than physically.

The backstop is an imposition, no question, but it's way too fruity to describe it as a 'democratic outrage and human rights abomination'. Just creates work if we do that, because then we have to put our thinking caps on and invent a new term for a democratic outrage and human rights abomination.

No in practice it doesn't mean that since even if we unilaterally come up with that the EU can enforce their laws on our citizens unless they say otherwise. Plus they get to change our laws without any input from our citizens.

If a foreign power changing OUR laws without any say from us is not a democratic outrage I don't know what is.

MarqueeMark said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Donny43 said:

Pro_Rata said:

One thing I am wondering is whether the Withdrawal Agreement has any life after March 30th in the event of No Deal.

Surely by definition "no deal" is the WA not coming into force?

Indeed but even in a no deal scenario talks will continue and a deal could be reached after. The EU would want the principles of the WA to form the basis of a future deal but there could be key changes depending upon how and why rejection occurs and the consequences of it.

They might also want their £39 billion. Although I'm not sure how much of that they could reasonably expect to get. An epic fail by the EU negotiators if they do lose much of it.

Although wasn't something like £20+bn allocated to 2 years transition at the current rate. Would be tough to argue for that if we were not in transition.