politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The betting markets now make it a 61% chance that Brexit won’t

RobD said:

Slackbladder said:

John Rentoul
‏Verified account @JohnRentoul

Approx. No-deal Brexit: 124 MPs. PM's deal: 215 MPs. Referendum (ie, Remain): 300. With NDB as default if they can't decide

The problem in a nutshell

If the no-dealers can be convinced that this is the only chance of Brexit (which is looking somewhat likely)....

It seems some of the former would rather not have Brexit unless it's a No Deal Brexit (no, I don't understand it either).

These are the people who appear on my Facebook page calling for May to be tried for treason.

ReggieCide said:

RobD said:

JosiasJessop said:

SeanT said:

Xenon said:

SeanT said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/Independent/status/1072122174251646977

OMG. What have we become as a nation?

That would have been a national scandal a few years ago. Now everyone just shrugs and forgets about it 5 minutes later.

I don't think we will forget about this, at least not in London (as it looks like we Londoners are gonna have to pony up the money). This is bad news for Sadiq Khan, as there are very serious questions being asked about when exactly he knew Crossrail was in trouble, and why didn't he say anything....

He could end up in court.

'Delayed indefinitely' is new. There's evidently some big issues with something; as the tunnels are complete, as are most of the stations, and they are running test trains, my guess is the very complex signalling systems. Probably wrong, though.

As you say, the question is when people knew that the project was in trouble.

At the risk of opening Pandora’s box, what’s so special about the signalling?

I've heard it said that Pandora's box is not a pretty sight.

I'd ask Adrian Mole, but apparently he never got the experience.

MikeSmithson said:

Pulpstar said:

Heh, hard to disagree.

https://twitter.com/LeaveEUOfficial/status/1072104199691923456

A bit like Leave EU and its referendum expenses

except that May's efforts are entirely Home grown?

https://twitter.com/HouseofCommons/status/1072133332618670081

https://twitter.com/HouseofCommons/status/1072133531806130176

grabcocque said:

The government whips who believed they could win the MV are now saying they're "confident" they can prevent the MV happening.

https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1072133163936301056

Govt. lose it by 200 then?

IanB2 said:

Mrs M's popularity seems to have fallen even further over on ConHome; something that didn't seem possible.

She's lost the 'good on her for pressing ahead, we need to settle this' sympathy.

Nigel_Foremain said:

The solution to all this has to be a government of national unity, with a sensible moderate for PM, with a grown up deputy PM from HMO. People respected by the house who have strong experience of government. Step forward Ken Clarke and Hilary Benn....the country needs you

Government of national unity? We can't even get a government of Cabinet unity.

kle4 said:

Anecdote alert - acquaintance of mine opines that brexit is a terrible idea which no one even wanted in the first place so it should be cancelled tomorrow. Good to see the debate is not still boiled down to simple answers.

Remainer maths: 52% = "no-one".

Now, if he meant "no-one in my immediate circle of Facebook friends. All five of them." he might not have appeared such a pillock.

Pulpstar said:

grabcocque said:

https://twitter.com/AlanDuncanMP/status/1072132920339501056

Nah the ERG is right on this one. Alan Duncan singing from the payroll hymnsheet here.

I met Alan Duncan once and quite liked him, tho this doesn't exactly look, how can I put it, statesman like. Two many tweets....

Pro_Rata said:

david_herdson said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Much jumping to judgement, I see.

Here's an idea: why not wait for a full 2 hours and 12 minutes, and see what she has to say?

Because it's a betting site? This is the time to pick up the consequences of what's going on, before it becomes obvious to the political media (except Peston, obvs).

grabcocque said:

So Erskine May says the right to move an order of the day belongs to the House at large not just member in charge, then says it must be taken on by another member in absence of the forementioned one.

i.e. if the goverment doesn't move an order of the day, another member may so move in the government's absence?

So it looks to me like the house CAN force the meaningful vote, simply by moving to resume the business of last week, if the Leader of the House so declines.

@david_herdson: Given your line on the impossibility of the second referendum is predicated on the government's control over house business, do the chinks in that control seen in the last week give you any pause for thought?

It remains impossible for the House to force a referendum on the government if the government remains opposed to such a public vote. The House can create trouble for the government by voting down what the government proposes but what it can't do is create the time and space to pass a full Bill against the government's wishes, and for that vote to be held before the end of March. Even if there was a notional majority for an EURef2, once you get into the detail, the initiative would fall apart.

What I do concede is just about possible is for the government to switch to accepting a referendum on a No Deal / Remain choice, given that the government has just trashed its own deal and there's no other one available.

Pulpstar said:

grabcocque said:

https://twitter.com/AlanDuncanMP/status/1072132920339501056

Nah the ERG is right on this one. Alan Duncan singing from the payroll hymnsheet here.

https://twitter.com/AlanDuncanMP/status/1072135293959110656

MarqueeMark said:

kle4 said:

IanB2 said:

Mrs M's popularity seems to have fallen even further over on ConHome; something that didn't seem possible.

She's lost the 'good on her for pressing ahead, we need to settle this' sympathy.

She still has a hotline to Big_G open. When she's lost him, time to book the removals van.....

There are more important things for me to reflect on today

david_herdson said:

What I do concede is just about possible is for the government to switch to accepting a referendum on a No Deal / Remain choice, given that the government has just trashed its own deal and there's no other one available.

If they did that, it would get amended to a Revoke/Some Deal referendum, surely.

MarqueeMark said:

kle4 said:

Anecdote alert - acquaintance of mine opines that brexit is a terrible idea which no one even wanted in the first place so it should be cancelled tomorrow. Good to see the debate is not still boiled down to simple answers.

Remainer maths: 52% = "no-one".

Now, if he meant "no-one in my immediate circle of Facebook friends. All five of them." he might not have appeared such a pillock.

Is not understanding irony an indicator of stupidity, being a Leave supporter or both?

grabcocque said:

Leo Varadkar pissing on May's chips on the BBC

https://twitter.com/BBCNews/status/1072134790634074112

27 governments

Big_G_NorthWales said:

grabcocque said:

Leo Varadkar pissing on May's chips on the BBC

https://twitter.com/BBCNews/status/1072134790634074112

27 governments

28 governments, but not parliaments.

KentRising said:

Pulpstar said:

https://twitter.com/HouseofCommons/status/1072133531806130176

Watch out for Gove arriving with a particularly heavy speech........

Could he just read from a good book, like in the West Wing's 'Stackhouse Fiibuster'?

KentRising said:

Pulpstar said:

https://twitter.com/HouseofCommons/status/1072133531806130176

Watch out for Gove arriving with a particularly heavy speech........

Could he just read from a good book, like in the West Wing's 'Stackhouse Fiibuster'?

Boris’ book on Churchill ?

FrancisUrquhart said:

Nigel_Foremain said:

The solution to all this has to be a government of national unity, with a sensible moderate for PM, with a grown up deputy PM from HMO. People respected by the house who have strong experience of government. Step forward Ken Clarke and Hilary Benn....the country needs you

Magic Grandpa and Marxist McDonnell are not going to agree to that. This is there once in a lifetime chance to run the show and tear down the system and enact their socialist paradise.

They only get that chance after a crisis in the real world, not just the political one.

tpfkar said:

MarqueeMark said:

kle4 said:

Anecdote alert - acquaintance of mine opines that brexit is a terrible idea which no one even wanted in the first place so it should be cancelled tomorrow. Good to see the debate is not still boiled down to simple answers.

Remainer maths: 52% = "no-one".

Now, if he meant "no-one in my immediate circle of Facebook friends. All five of them." he might not have appeared such a pillock.

Possibly an age thing? The Will of the Pensioners is a more accurate description of those who voted for Brexit - the workers never wanted it.

The will of the forty somethings.

kle4 said:

IanB2 said:

Mrs M's popularity seems to have fallen even further over on ConHome; something that didn't seem possible.

She's lost the 'good on her for pressing ahead, we need to settle this' sympathy.

Con Home is not a bellwether. Itz full of bellends...

Pulpstar said:

Crashing out then putting the deal back to parliament - would that work ?

Possibly. Hard to see that enhancing Britain's international credibility.

Pulpstar said:

Crashing out then putting the deal back to parliament - would that work ?

Only if everyone in Parliament is planning to leave at the next election...

notme said:

Ben Bradshaw on LBC can hardly contain his glee at the possibility of us not leaving the EU. I hope he washes his hands afterwards.

He was the same on Sky

Foxy said:

Pulpstar said:

Crashing out then putting the deal back to parliament - would that work ?

Possibly. Hard to see that enhancing Britain's international credibility.

What credibility is that?

Floater said:

tpfkar said:

MarqueeMark said:

kle4 said:

Anecdote alert - acquaintance of mine opines that brexit is a terrible idea which no one even wanted in the first place so it should be cancelled tomorrow. Good to see the debate is not still boiled down to simple answers.

Remainer maths: 52% = "no-one".

Now, if he meant "no-one in my immediate circle of Facebook friends. All five of them." he might not have appeared such a pillock.

Possibly an age thing? The Will of the Pensioners is a more accurate description of those who voted for Brexit - the workers never wanted it.

Really - are you so very sure of that?

Let me save you time, no you are not sure because plenty of workers did and do still want it.

Even some very young workers in my place voted to leave.

Sounds like a decent representative sample...

Xenon said:

grabcocque said:

Leo Varadkar pissing on May's chips on the BBC

https://twitter.com/BBCNews/status/1072134790634074112

If we do end up with no deal then it will give some satisfaction to see the smug expression wiped off that twerp's face.

Indeed. He is public enemy number 1 as to why this is such a nightmare. Prior to that twerp taking office there was a mutually respectful alternative plan being created by both nations - after him its been like Brexit has been ran by Sinn Fein.

KentRising said:

Could he just read from a good book, like in the West Wing's 'Stackhouse Fiibuster'?

If you're going to take the piss, do it properly: start reading out the phonebook (like Strom Thurmond in the 50s).

I see Poundland are on the A50 case:

https://twitter.com/Poundland/status/1071736389790769152?s=19

bigjohnowls said:

If there turns out to be no BREXIT at all.

All that is left is to get our yellow jackets out.

ALL POLITICIANS have failed us and it is not acceptable

In the hands of your mate Corbyn. He just needs to vote for the deal and we're out.

TOPPING said:

SeanT said:

Oort said:

HYUFD said:

A general election solves NOTHING there is no majority in the Commons for Corbyn's Brexit plus permanent Customs Union either

A general election could solve that problem!

So could a government of national unity that excludes the ERG rather than letting them have a third of the seats in the Cabinet as they do now. Sure, it would mean the end of the Tory party in its present form. If I were Corbyn I'd consider that a result.

Speaking as a Liberal Leaver, I have virtually abandoned all hope of Leaving sans catastrophe, and if the alternative is a GE and a probable Corbyn government, I would rather have a 2nd referendum, and then I suspect I would vote, sadly and with some self hatred, for Remain.

This is coming down to realpolitik - and seriously nasty economic choices.

You dolt. It was obvious that this would happen. That you are surprised (are you surprised) is about the only thing that is mildly surprising but then you were never that sharp to start with, albeit you have a great literary turn of phrase.

Its a tragedy to think about the way the UK could have been reshaping the EU at the moment if the UK had voted to Remain. Oh well.

Voting leave was always the nuclear option and it was a delusion that a finely calibrated new arrangement could have been reached by taking ourselves out of the decision making room.

JonathanD said:

TOPPING said:

SeanT said:

Oort said:

HYUFD said:

A general election solves NOTHING there is no majority in the Commons for Corbyn's Brexit plus permanent Customs Union either

A general election could solve that problem!

So could a government of national unity that excludes the ERG rather than letting them have a third of the seats in the Cabinet as they do now. Sure, it would mean the end of the Tory party in its present form. If I were Corbyn I'd consider that a result.

Speaking as a Liberal Leaver, I have virtually abandoned all hope of Leaving sans catastrophe, and if the alternative is a GE and a probable Corbyn government, I would rather have a 2nd referendum, and then I suspect I would vote, sadly and with some self hatred, for Remain.

This is coming down to realpolitik - and seriously nasty economic choices.

You dolt. It was obvious that this would happen. That you are surprised (are you surprised) is about the only thing that is mildly surprising but then you were never that sharp to start with, albeit you have a great literary turn of phrase.

Its a tragedy to think about the way the UK could have been reshaping the EU at the moment if the UK had voted to Remain. Oh well.

Voting leave was always the nuclear option and it was a delusion that a finely calibrated new arrangement could have been reached by taking ourselves out of the decision making room.

Haven’t we been trying that for years?

Nigel_Foremain said:

Surely the best compromise is to let all the old folk who voted for Brexit to pay a little extra for their passports so they can have a black one if they want it, and move as many of them as possible to the Falkland Islands, or New Zealand where they won't see many people with different skin colour/or speaking with funny accents.

When they are there we can simulate cliff edge Brexit specifically for them so they can see the effects on their cost of living, and allow them to pay for healthcare to simulate the NHS buckling through staff shortages . It will make great reality TV. It could be called, "I'm a Brexiteer get me out of here"

That is a nasty post.

I have been to New Zealand several times and it has an excellent racial mix, especially from Asia

Philip_Thompson said:

Gallowgate said:

bigjohnowls said:

If there turns out to be no BREXIT at all.

All that is left is to get our yellow jackets out.

ALL POLITICIANS have failed us and it is not acceptable

Reign it in man.

Just because you don't like the fact you lost the referendum, nor do many MPs, doesn't change matters. It will be unpleasant for this country if we remain having voted to Leave. There will be many voters easy pickings to firebrands screeching "what part of no don't they understand".

Or unpleasant things like "drain the swamp".

That maybe what fanatics like you hope, the reality is more likely to be "oh well that was a waste of time". Most people who voted Leave are not firebrands, they just read too much Daily Express, and have the demographic to match. They might go all gammon, but they will not be rioting in their bathchairs.

Philip_Thompson said:

Xenon said:

grabcocque said:

Leo Varadkar pissing on May's chips on the BBC

https://twitter.com/BBCNews/status/1072134790634074112

If we do end up with no deal then it will give some satisfaction to see the smug expression wiped off that twerp's face.

Indeed. He is public enemy number 1 as to why this is such a nightmare. Prior to that twerp taking office there was a mutually respectful alternative plan being created by both nations - after him its been like Brexit has been ran by Sinn Fein.

Old Vodka going public like this is, I suspect, as much for consumption amongst the 27 as for anyone else. Why do these sort of people seem to favour having minders on show with them - closet mafiosa?

Nigel_Foremain said:

Surely the best compromise is to let all the old folk who voted for Brexit to pay a little extra for their passports so they can have a black one if they want it, and move as many of them as possible to the Falkland Islands, or New Zealand where they won't see many people with different skin colour/or speaking with funny accents.

When they are there we can simulate cliff edge Brexit specifically for them so they can see the effects on their cost of living, and allow them to pay for healthcare to simulate the NHS buckling through staff shortages . It will make great reality TV. It could be called, "I'm a Brexiteer get me out of here"

prick

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Nigel_Foremain said:

Surely the best compromise is to let all the old folk who voted for Brexit to pay a little extra for their passports so they can have a black one if they want it, and move as many of them as possible to the Falkland Islands, or New Zealand where they won't see many people with different skin colour/or speaking with funny accents.

When they are there we can simulate cliff edge Brexit specifically for them so they can see the effects on their cost of living, and allow them to pay for healthcare to simulate the NHS buckling through staff shortages . It will make great reality TV. It could be called, "I'm a Brexiteer get me out of here"

That is a nasty post.

I have been to New Zealand several times and it has an excellent racial mix, especially from Asia

Fair point, but many Brexiteers see it as 1950s utopia and dream that we should be the same

Cyclefree said:

grabcocque said:

Leo Varadkar pissing on May's chips on the BBC

https://twitter.com/BBCNews/status/1072134790634074112

If the EU wanted to be naughty they could just point to today's ECJ decision and remind the British government that if they don't like the deal on offer there is an alternative available.

Anyway, bollocks to all this.

I've just got myself a new client and some work in NY next year! All has to be finalised and many a slip and all that but still am feeling unaccountably pleased. Plus a judge this morning described some work I'd done as "excellent" and judges don't often praise people.

Anyway, time to put my inner @SeanT away and get back to doing some more work.

Not only do I have to buy more beans and lentils but need to buy more tulip bulbs to replace those the blasted squirrel keeps stealing.....

We had hundreds of tulips until this spring. Then we had about 3. Something took them, whether squirrels, mice or the Beast From the East. Been planting a bunch of replacements this morning. But in pots that I can put wire over the top of, until they emerge.

People need to calm down on here. Too much excitement for some people. Go outside for some air.

https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1072143069938663424

Floater said:

tpfkar said:

MarqueeMark said:

kle4 said:

Anecdote alert - acquaintance of mine opines that brexit is a terrible idea which no one even wanted in the first place so it should be cancelled tomorrow. Good to see the debate is not still boiled down to simple answers.

Remainer maths: 52% = "no-one".

Now, if he meant "no-one in my immediate circle of Facebook friends. All five of them." he might not have appeared such a pillock.

Possibly an age thing? The Will of the Pensioners is a more accurate description of those who voted for Brexit - the workers never wanted it.

Really - are you so very sure of that?

Let me save you time, no you are not sure because plenty of workers did and do still want it.

Even some very young workers in my place voted to leave.

Yes quite sure - the polling was overwhelmingly clear and the age divide remains. For example YouGov the week after the referendum

https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2016/06/27/how-britain-voted

Of course there were plenty of workers and young people who supported Brexit and senior citizens who did not; but they were not in the majority.

I'm really just trolling the 'Will of the People' phrase - clearly hit a nerve!

KentRising said:

People need to calm down on here. Too much excitement for some people. Go outside for some air.

I take it you’ve not been around for one of TSE’s AV threads?

grabcocque said:

DUP are going fricking ballistic on Twitter.

DUP source: "This is an unbelievable situation. She's intending to bat for Britain? Who believes that after a week-and-a-half of her saying this was a good deal. It is beyond belief" 1/

DUP source: "She can't pretend she's dodged a bullet. Pulling the vote is an admission of abject failure, who has no credibility" Do the Conservatives need a new leader? "We're not getting involved in internal Tory battles [I think implication is yes] 2/

DUP Source: "We warned her the Withdrawal Agreement should never have been signed. We warned her not to go down that route. She's reaping the rewards for her arrogance in pushing on with it anyway" 3/

https://twitter.com/BethRigby

Quite right!

Her whole dismal tenure has been marked by arrogance.

Arrogance in thinking she could win an easy election.
Arrogance in thinking she didn't need to bother to campaign or turn up to the debates.
Arrogance in thinking that everyone in the Cabinet would fall into line on Chequers.
Arrogantly letting it be known she'd make the Cabinet leave Chequers without their vehicles if they didn't agree to it, so instead resignations just happened once people were home (duh!).
Arrogance in thinking the EU would just fall in behind Chequers.
Arrogance in thinking Parliament had no choice but to back her.
Arrogance in thinking that when her own MPs and her allies were screaming they wouldn't back this that she could just go over their heads.

I've never respected a leader less. Especially a leader who is meant to be 'my' parties leader.

grabcocque said:

ReggieCide said:

Nigel_Foremain said:

Surely the best compromise is to let all the old folk who voted for Brexit to pay a little extra for their passports so they can have a black one if they want it, and move as many of them as possible to the Falkland Islands, or New Zealand where they won't see many people with different skin colour/or speaking with funny accents.

When they are there we can simulate cliff edge Brexit specifically for them so they can see the effects on their cost of living, and allow them to pay for healthcare to simulate the NHS buckling through staff shortages . It will make great reality TV. It could be called, "I'm a Brexiteer get me out of here"

prick

Who's your chum?

grabcocque said:

bigjohnowls said:

This is just the start

Riots are inevitable if we do not Leave IMO

If I had a pound every time a leaver made unspecific but ominous threats of violence I could buy a fetching new hat.

WE ARE NOT AFRAID OF YOU, YOU DIMWITS.

You should be very afraid of a 2nd Referendum.

Confident Leave would win with a (fuck the establishment) increased majority

Richard_Nabavi said:

bigjohnowls said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

bigjohnowls said:

If there turns out to be no BREXIT at all.

All that is left is to get our yellow jackets out.

ALL POLITICIANS have failed us and it is not acceptable

In the hands of your mate Corbyn. He just needs to vote for the deal and we're out.

Your mate MAY is 100% responsible for this, even you know it.

History will not be kind to her or her arse crawlers

She's not my mate, and she's most certainly not responsible for it. For all her many faults, it's hardly her fault that Corbyn torpedoed the Labour remain campaign, nor that the EU are intransigent, nor that Corbyn is playing cynical party-political games, and especially not that the ERG have decided they don't want the Brexit they campaigned for after all. And it's only partly her fault that the voters didn't give her the mandate she needed to get through all this.

GE2017

Good afternoon, everyone.

Just 27 minutes until May is inevitably late to her own statement.