politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The betting markets now make it a 61% chance that Brexit won’t

Alistair said:

https://twitter.com/NicolaSturgeon/status/1072104613409644545?s=19

Calm and measured as always.

If only the PM had been as courageous as Nicola on calling a second referendum...

PeterMannion said:

Massive miscalculation by May (again)

Genuine reason for resigning, 48 letter or HoC VoNC

To try and fail is one thing. To not even try...

No she did the sensible thing and I think May is just trying one last option before she could call EUref2.

It has been clear since November 25 when this deal was signed, arguably since Chequers, that this deal could not pass.
Nothing has changed in that regard at all. So, the answer seems to be more delay. Hoping summat will turn up.
Nowt has changed in 2 weeks. What will change now? We are at Remain or No Deal stage. When will the penny drop?

tottenhamWC said:

Sean_F said:

rottenborough said:

OldKingCole said:

Sean_F said:

Floater said:

May is utterly unfit to be PM.

Seriously, end this .

The problem we have is that not one of the other 649 MPs is fitter to be PM.

Keir Starmer?

Ken Clarke is the only person with the necessary experience in HoC at this crucial crisis point, but obviously comes with the whole europhile baggage.

Funnily enough I was thinking he could be the best of a bad bunch. At least you know where you stand with him.

If we had more people in the HoC like him we wouldn't be in such a mess.

It simply isn't true that the Commons lacks MPs of calibre. There are plenty, on all sides of the house, but when opportunities arisen they are regularly passed over. Clarke is maybe the outstanding example, but only recently the wholly inappropriate Williamson was preferred for advancement ahead of some obviously better candidates.

It is difficult to avoid thinking that appointments are generally based on loyalty rather than ability.

HYUFD said:

This ECJ ruling and the fact May is delaying the Meaningful Vote to see if she can get any concession from Brussels (very unlikely) means EUref2 looks increasingly likely as neither Deal or No Deal has a majority in the Commons unlike EUref2, maybe with an extension of Article 50 for a few months to allow it to take place as the EU is reportedly open to.

Based on civil servants reported preparations yesterday the question would be either Deal v Remain or Leave v Remain and if Leave won a second Leave with Deal or No Deal question

Which still doesn't answer the question of why hold a referendum with those options when it is clear that Parliament will not honour the Leave options of May's Deal and Hard Brexit. There's simply no point to such a vote, if we'd be back to the same stalemate in Parliament if the electorate gives the wrong answer.

I'm off for a bit. If May could stay in place until I get back for the betting opportunities, that would be marvellous.

Philip_Thompson said:

anothernick said:

KentRising said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

I suspect that the vote is being delayed to give time for the PM to ask for something at this week's summit.

It has long been thought that she would be seeking "concessions" at this summit, the only difference now is there will be no vote before it. Mrs May lives to fight another day.

But what is the point of the EU offering her concessions when they know she cannot deliver?

This is the end of the road for her I think.

She can deliver if they drop the backstop. Will they?

I think not to May. Not without a vote first. They'd sooner push us to revoke with May in charge.

They will not drop the backstop. They can see as well as anyone else that the Brexit edifice is collapsing and they are going to sit back and watch as we move either to a second referendum or to a revokation of article 50 by a vote in the House of Commons.

I think it's quite possible the House will revoke first and then bring about an encounter with the electorate either through a second referendum or general election afterwards.

Will she get 1922-VONCed today before or after 3.30pm?

I would so much like her to rise to the occasion: say the end of the Tory party as hitherto known is less important than governing in the national interest; resign as Tory leader; ask Jeremy Corbyn into the Cabinet; appoint Keir Starmer as Brexit Secetary; say she is recognising reality and that the only way to respect the referendum result without the breakdown of the food supply is to stay in the customs union, and the only way to provide the leadership the British people deserve is to form a government of national unity and if a minority or even the majority of Tory MPs disagree, then screw them; sack Michael Gove and hand him a viciously negative reference; and boot the DUP to kingdom come, with the message that there won't be a hard border in Ireland and if they want to go to the mattresses because they hate the EU so much, bring it on. If necessary, put the media on war rules.

Unfortunately she hasn't got it in her, and it might be best if she just retires from politics.

Stereotomy said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Stereotomy said:

KentRising said:

I don't think she's going to do anything other than fight on - she will say she had "listened" and commit to gaining concessions on the backstop at the upcoming summit. Vote in January. May enters the NY still PM and I claim my £5. Quite a survivalist.

If the ERG had any political nous at all, some of them would have cultivated some relationships with discontented Remain-leaning Tories and would be coordinating with them to announce that they've put letters in this evening or (more likely) tomorrow.

From what we've seen so far though, they don't seem capable of anything beyond bluster.

The one issue that requires caution is there is a good chance TM could win and then cannot be moved for 12 months

Well, it depends what she says at 3.30, but if it's generally agreed to be crap, that will probably be the best shot they'll have had so far. Then again, if she's only delaying for a week, they may be better off waiting.

What point would there be in delaying for a week?

kjohnw said:

If TM goes back to EU for concessions and they offer crap she may come back holding the appeasement offer which gets rejected by parliament then 48 letters , two months of leadership contest with TM as caretaker then BOJO and no deal I reckon

TM won't be caretaker....

https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1072108718735663104

SeanT said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Maybe she got some encouraging signals from her conversations with EU leaders over the weekend?

lol

The EU knows it is now close to its ultimate prize, a reversal of Brexit. The humiliation of the UK. A Europe strengthened at just the right time.

They won't give her anything apart from slightly changing the odd verb in paragraph 287B of the "Deal".

They want her to fail, they know she is likely to fail, because they know the probable alternatives, after she fails, are either Cancellation or Indefinite Suspension of A50 = No Brexit, or a 2nd referendum, which probably means No Brexit, or a GE and a Corbyn minority government which will have to promise a 2nd referendum - which probably means No Brexit.

Yep. Well played EU. I hope our money is worth the bitter drag we will be to them.

AmpfieldAndy said:

I think it is a racing certainty that Brexit won’t happen. May’s deal has absolutely nothing going for it. It has no certainty on trade, betrays fishing, betrays NI and there is no clarity on immigration - just the certainty we will pay out £ 39bn for nothing. MPs won’t sanction no deal which is the only form of Brexit deliverable in the time scale and will thereby rob 17.4 m voters of their democratic choice.

The result will be a Corbyn Gov which is exactly what Remainers deserve for the economic carnage it will create.

That will be May’s and the Tory remainers legacy - failure to deliver on Brexit and handing power to a bunch of hard left extremists. Great job !!!

I've always said it wont happen in the end.

Oort said:

Will she get 1922-VONCed today before or after 3.30pm?

I would so much like her to rise to the occasion: say the end of the Tory party as hitherto known is less important than governing in the national interest; resign as Tory leader; ask Jeremy Corbyn into the Cabinet; appoint Keir Starmer as Brexit Secetary; say she is recognising reality and that the only way to respect the referendum result without the breakdown of the food supply is to stay in the customs union, and the only way to provide the leadership the British people deserve is to form a government of national unity and if a minority or even the majority of Tory MPs disagree, then screw them; sack Michael Gove and hand him a viciously negative reference; and boot the DUP to kingdom come, with the message that there won't be a hard border in Ireland and if they want to go to the mattresses because they hate the EU so much, bring it on. If necessary, put the media on war rules.

Unfortunately she hasn't got it in her, and it might be best if she just retires from politics.

No chance. Labour won't go for it, when they can just sit back and wait for a GE.

SouthamObserver said:

Very hard to disagree with this ...
https://twitter.com/kennyf1283/status/1072109588458192896?s=21

That's been true ever since May accepted the backstop then spent the next year trying everything she could think of to wriggle out of it. Likewise with prominent Leavers cheering on the backstop before eventually working out a few months later what it actually was.

This looks as though this is going to be yet more humiliating:

https://twitter.com/JamesDuddridge/status/1072111573370572801

Pulpstar said:

AlastairMeeks said:

The delay to the vote may not be easily got through Parliament. Take a look at this:

https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1072109081702424576

The Gov't might make sure it loses the Hilary Benn amendment.

Not sure I understand this. Couldn't they have done that without attempting to pull the vote?

AmpfieldAndy said:

Remain lost and there is no elected party who campaigned for it with a parliamentary mandate. It doesn’t deserve to be on the ballot paper.

That's an interesting and entirely original point which adds greatly to our discussion of the current political challenges and which you haven't made 250 times already over the past week. It's for that sort of scintillating insight that I return to PB again and again.

glw said:

Slackbladder said:

glw said:

HYUFD said:

This ECJ ruling and the fact May is delaying the Meaningful Vote to see if she can get any concession from Brussels (very unlikely) means EUref2 looks increasingly likely as neither Deal or No Deal has a majority in the Commons unlike EUref2, maybe with an extension of Article 50 for a few months to allow it to take place as the EU is reportedly open to.

Based on civil servants reported preparations yesterday the question would be either Deal v Remain or Leave v Remain and if Leave won a second Leave with Deal or No Deal question

Which still doesn't answer the question of why hold a referendum with those options when it is clear that Parliament will not honour the Leave options of May's Deal and Hard Brexit. There's simply no point to such a vote, if we'd be back to the same stalemate in Parliament if the electorate gives the wrong answer.

Would only work if the vote was legally binding.

As far as I can see no referendum in the UK can be binding, as it would clash with Parliamentary Sovereignty. They are always advisory, no matter how much the politicians swear they will carry out our instructions.

If the authorising act says the outcome must occur would it not take further legislation or a repeal to prevent? I suppose it depends since what to do if the necessary actions were just ignored.

kle4 said:

AmpfieldAndy said:

HYUFD said:

This ECJ ruling and the fact May is delaying the Meaningful Vote to see if she can get any concession from Brussels (very unlikely) means EUref2 looks increasingly likely as neither Deal or No Deal has a majority in the Commons unlike EUref2, maybe with an extension of Article 50 for a few months to allow it to take place as the EU is reportedly open to.

Based on civil servants reported preparations yesterday the question would be either Deal v Remain or Leave v Remain and if Leave won a second Leave with Deal or No Deal question

Remain lost and there is no elected party who campaigned for it with a parliamentary mandate. It doesn’t deserve to be on the ballot paper. If there is a second referendum, it will have no legitimacy unless the choice is between no deal or May’s deal.

legitimacy will be decided by the majority. Sucks as a leaver but there you go.

The majority voted to leave...

TGOHF said:

No sign of many cheerleaders for Mrs May now.

Regardless of the topic - this is an utter failure by the PM.

48 letters must be in tonight - surely.

I had sympathy for her, but even I'd be putting a letter in now

AlastairMeeks said:

This looks as though this is going to be yet more humiliating:

https://twitter.com/JamesDuddridge/status/1072111573370572801

Trying and failing to prevent a humiliation is more humiliating than just losing. If I, shiftless 32 year old with too much time on their hands can tell that why can't no. 10?

AmpfieldAndy said:

El_Capitano said:

AmpfieldAndy said:

Remain lost and there is no elected party who campaigned for it with a parliamentary mandate. It doesn’t deserve to be on the ballot paper.

That's an interesting and entirely original point which adds greatly to our discussion of the current political challenges and which you haven't made 250 times already over the past week. It's for that sort of scintillating insight that I return to PB again and again.

The truth hurts - not my fault if you don’t like it.

Someone once said that when the facts change they change their opinion...

It's remarkable how many people seem to continue with the old plan even when it's clearly running out of control, massively over budget and shown to be physically impossible...

Pulpstar said:

Peter_the_Punter said:

The Vote is being delayed?

But I heard Mr Gove on the radio this morning saying it wouldn't be. Surely he wasn't fibbing?

Gove wasn't lieing. May has changed her mind from this morning.

He's in the Cabinet, ffs. Don't tell me they're all just making it up as they go along.

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/DharshiniDavid/status/1072113480780705792

Revelation of the year

Currency trades profit from volatility. Who knew!

PeterMannion said:

TGOHF said:

No sign of many cheerleaders for Mrs May now.

Regardless of the topic - this is an utter failure by the PM.

48 letters must be in tonight - surely.

I had sympathy for her, but even I'd be putting a letter in now

Letters for what purpose? Zero.

There is no other Deal on offer from the EU as will become clear when May goes to Brussels, the only alternatives to this Deal are no Deal or Remain/BINO. Faffing around with leadership contests solves nothing as no alternative leader will get a different deal and you may end up with a No Dealer instead which would make things worse.

The only way out now is EUref2

kle4 said:

AmpfieldAndy said:

HYUFD said:

This ECJ ruling and the fact May is delaying the Meaningful Vote to see if she can get any concession from Brussels (very unlikely) means EUref2 looks increasingly likely as neither Deal or No Deal has a majority in the Commons unlike EUref2, maybe with an extension of Article 50 for a few months to allow it to take place as the EU is reportedly open to.

Based on civil servants reported preparations yesterday the question would be either Deal v Remain or Leave v Remain and if Leave won a second Leave with Deal or No Deal question

Remain lost and there is no elected party who campaigned for it with a parliamentary mandate. It doesn’t deserve to be on the ballot paper. If there is a second referendum, it will have no legitimacy unless the choice is between no deal or May’s deal.

legitimacy will be decided by the majority. Sucks as a leaver but there you go.

Same here. Once the ERG went nuclear, they emboldened the anti-Brexit majority in the House.

kle4 said:

rottenborough said:

https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1072108718735663104

Who's to say she didn't do that ages ago. I bet she cannot quite believe she has not faced a vonc yet.

Maybe that's the tactic, for the 48 letters, win the Tory vote, she's safe for a year, then can bring the same deal back, knowing that she can't be rolled even if she loses by 100+

AmpfieldAndy said:

Remain lost and there is no elected party who campaigned for it with a parliamentary mandate.

The only elected party that campaigned for Leave is the DUP.

SeanT said:

AmpfieldAndy said:

I think it is a racing certainty that Brexit won’t happen. May’s deal has absolutely nothing going for it. It has no certainty on trade, betrays fishing, betrays NI and there is no clarity on immigration - just the certainty we will pay out £ 39bn for nothing. MPs won’t sanction no deal which is the only form of Brexit deliverable in the time scale and will thereby rob 17.4 m voters of their democratic choice.

The result will be a Corbyn Gov which is exactly what Remainers deserve for the economic carnage it will create.

That will be May’s and the Tory remainers legacy - failure to deliver on Brexit and handing power to a bunch of hard left extremists. Great job !!!

Yes, for the first time since I made my famously large bet with williamglenn (Britain will be out of the EU by the end of 2019), I think I am probably going to lose it.

No Brexit is now more likely than Brexit.

Why? Because the only way out of this mess, as far as I can see, is to hand it back to the people: a 2nd vote. The alternative is a Corbyn government, which Tories will not countenance.

Moreover, there is surely a majority in the Commons for a 2nd referendum, which Remain would be favourite to win (but not a certainty).

I think politically the best route is to withdraw the deal as there isn't any support. Then get the house to decide on the two remaining options, no deal or remain. By make the house responsible for the choice, but the people.

This is all of a piece since GE 17. Ignoring opposition days, ignoring humble addresses, now delaying. No one seems to appreciate this is a minority government. Policies need to be squared with Parliament first, on an inclusive, wide-ranging basis, by extensive consultation, then enacted, not decided by a tiny cabal.
Too late now.

AlastairMeeks said:

Sean_F said:

kle4 said:

AmpfieldAndy said:

HYUFD said:

This ECJ ruling and the fact May is delaying the Meaningful Vote to see if she can get any concession from Brussels (very unlikely) means EUref2 looks increasingly likely as neither Deal or No Deal has a majority in the Commons unlike EUref2, maybe with an extension of Article 50 for a few months to allow it to take place as the EU is reportedly open to.

Based on civil servants reported preparations yesterday the question would be either Deal v Remain or Leave v Remain and if Leave won a second Leave with Deal or No Deal question

Remain lost and there is no elected party who campaigned for it with a parliamentary mandate. It doesn’t deserve to be on the ballot paper. If there is a second referendum, it will have no legitimacy unless the choice is between no deal or May’s deal.

legitimacy will be decided by the majority. Sucks as a leaver but there you go.

Same here. Once the ERG went nuclear, they emboldened the anti-Brexit majority in the House.

Well obviously. And in any case it would be a democratic absurdity to have a referendum between two options when another option that was polling far better than either was excluded from the ballot paper.

One can play this game with all the options

i) Rejected by referendum
ii) Rejected by parliament due to sovereignty concerns
iii) Rejected by parliament due to economic concerns

Having spent 5 days debating this deal will MPs sit meekly on their hands and allow the vote to be booted into January? With potentially yet more debate?

Rejection of the procedure motion to reject a meaningful vote has surely to be a strong prospect...

anothernick said:

I think it would be fair to say that most of us on here agree that the options as of this morning were

1 May's deal
2 No deal
3 Remain

May's deal is now dead. Nobody thinks Parliament will accept no deal, and now, thanks to the ECJ, MPs have a cast iron way of avoiding no deal by simply voting to revoke article 50. So Option 3 is the only one left on the table.

Why is May's deal (or its closely related putative successor) dead? If it's put to the people in a referendum it can win. And MPs can't simply vote to revoke Article 50; that would very probably require a Government Bill. You've built your argument by starting from your desired conclusion.

Tissue_Price said:

anothernick said:

I think it would be fair to say that most of us on here agree that the options as of this morning were

1 May's deal
2 No deal
3 Remain

May's deal is now dead. Nobody thinks Parliament will accept no deal, and now, thanks to the ECJ, MPs have a cast iron way of avoiding no deal by simply voting to revoke article 50. So Option 3 is the only one left on the table.

Why is May's deal (or its closely related putative successor) dead? If it's put to the people in a referendum it can win. And MPs can't simply vote to revoke Article 50; that would very probably require a Government Bill. You've built your argument by starting from your desired conclusion.

There may well be nobody arguing for May's deal if it goes to a second referendum.

As Plan Bs go, it has the merit of being attainable. Might just work too.

https://twitter.com/xtophercook/status/1072115953692041218

Sean_F said:

Tissue_Price said:

anothernick said:

I think it would be fair to say that most of us on here agree that the options as of this morning were

1 May's deal
2 No deal
3 Remain

May's deal is now dead. Nobody thinks Parliament will accept no deal, and now, thanks to the ECJ, MPs have a cast iron way of avoiding no deal by simply voting to revoke article 50. So Option 3 is the only one left on the table.

Why is May's deal (or its closely related putative successor) dead? If it's put to the people in a referendum it can win. And MPs can't simply vote to revoke Article 50; that would very probably require a Government Bill. You've built your argument by starting from your desired conclusion.

There may well be nobody arguing for May's deal if it goes to a second referendum.

If it's Deal vs Remain I suspect it will do fairly well.

Even if she goes to Bruxelles and gets them to change the font of the backstop paragraph to 11 point Garamond will the Ergonauts really eat shit and vote for it? Everything she does is pointless and confusing.

AlastairMeeks said:

EICIPM said:

Cometh the hour, cometh the Ed.

Time for Miliband to take over and bring home the bacon. 🥓

*looks at betting slips*

OH YES.

Should I begin the grassroots Twitter movement?

AmpfieldAndy said:

anothernick said:

I think it would be fair to say that most of us on here agree that the options as of this morning were

1 May's deal
2 No deal
3 Remain

May's deal is now dead. Nobody thinks Parliament will accept no deal, and now, thanks to the ECJ, MPs have a cast iron way of avoiding no deal by simply voting to revoke article 50. So Option 3 is the only one left on the table.

Option 3 has already been rejected by the electorate in a referendum and in a general election campaign whereby both major parties campaigned on a Leave platform.

But that doesn't mean it's rejected forever. Neither party stood on a platform of Option 1 or Option 2 either

Dura_Ace said:

Even if she goes to Bruxelles and gets them to change the font of the backstop paragraph to 11 point Garamond will the Ergonauts really eat shit and vote for it? Everything she does is pointless and confusing.

Some of them won't. But she'll have enough cover from those that do change their mind to either (a) get it through the Commons [c. 15%?] or (b) take it to the country.