politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The betting markets now make it a 61% chance that Brexit won’t
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The betting markets now make it a 61% chance that Brexit won’t happen on March 29th as planned
This morning’s ruling by the ECJ that Article 50 can be revoked unilaterally changes the Brexit Debate at a critical time with MPs due to vote on the deal tomorrow evening.
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Ha ha ha ha!!!0
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It's wicked to mock the afflicted!RochdalePioneers said:Ha ha ha ha!!!
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As Alanbrooke rightly said in his excellent article yesterday, the cosy 2/3-party consensus within the EP may be about to break down in a big way. The UK's withdrawal helps the Europhile centre a little, removing the sizable UKIP and Con blocks, but that's likely to be more than offset by gains by the Eurosceptics, radicals, populists and extremists elsewhere.Sean_F said:
For sure, People will be looking for the biggest loons to elect. And, it seems many European voters want some of that too.Pulpstar said:
The EU elections will be the perfect place to make a protest vote.Slackbladder said:
Thats true. I doubt people will be marching in the streets in their millions. If there is a 'backlash' it will be increased disillusionment, and risk of low turnouts, making a breakthrough by a far-right, or far left extremists higher.grabcocque said:
It's ridiculous, prima facie, to think that anyone is going to be cowed by threats of violence from Yaxley-Lennon and his band of merry fuckwits.Slackbladder said:
This isn't Guido Fawke's site...please.grabcocque said:
YOU WANT SOME? YOU FOOKIN WANT SOME?CarlottaVance said:grabcocque said:I think maybe we should have a PB moratorium on threats of violence.
Physician heal thyself!grabcocque said:
COME AND HAVE A GO IF YOU THINK YOU'RE HARD ENOUGH.
For example, the 2014 EP elections in Italy returned (party-group / % / MEPs)
Dem - S&D / 41% / 31
M5S - EFDD / 21% / 17
FI - EPP / 17% / 13
Lega - NI / 6% / 5
NCR - EPP / 4% / 3
By contrast, current polling puts Lega on 34% or so with M5S on around 25%. Neither of these now sits in one of the centrist/traditional three blocs - which probably means that Italy will return around two-thirds of its MEPs to awkward squads.
Italy is, to some extent, exceptional but Germany and France could easily each return around half their MEPs outside of the centre-right / centre-left / liberal groupings. Even including the Greens as part of that consensus (which is a bit dubious), doesn't lift the numbers that high.
Europe has changed a lot in five years, and is still changing.0 -
This here oral statement at 3.30pm is going to be quite something. How would you like your crow served, Prime Minister?0
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Nobody. Has. A. Clue........0
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I would be tempted to start by saying "Mr Speaker, Something has changed."AlastairMeeks said:This here oral statement at 3.30pm is going to be quite something. How would you like your crow served, Prime Minister?
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What on earth is she going to say.0
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She might just regale us with a rendition of The Impossible DreamDanSmith said:What on earth is she going to say.
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Only moving in one direction now. Can no dealers obstruct enough to ensure the default? I don't think they can but it may take a few months, right up to the wire.0
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Strong and stable remember. She absolutely continues to enjotthe support of her cabinet, her party and indeed the Commons having successfully toured the UK persuading people thtther deal is all they ever wanted. So pulling the meaningful vote is of course perfectly sensible as her Chief Whip informs her the government would win by 200.AlastairMeeks said:This here oral statement at 3.30pm is going to be quite something. How would you like your crow served, Prime Minister?
Surely anything other than her reaigbresig will unleash the twin hells of 480 letters to Graham Brady and a VONC?0 -
Massive miscalculation by May (again)
Genuine reason for resigning, 48 letter or HoC VoNC
To try and fail is one thing. To not even try...0 -
WHAT
A
JOKE.
Lucky I didn't take up PtP's generous 6/4 double !0 -
https://twitter.com/CommonsLeader/status/1072101585227038720
Barclay is basically in charge of no deal planning isn't he?
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Personally, I'd prefer to put it to the vote, and then step down when it was rejected.PeterMannion said:Massive miscalculation by May (again)
Genuine reason for resigning, 48 letter or HoC VoNC
To try and fail is one thing. To not even try...
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Shares in popcorn supplier, Popcorn2U, have hit a seven year high on FTSE 350.0
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is it confirmed the vote is cancelled?0
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May is utterly unfit to be PM.
Seriously, end this .0 -
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It has long been thought that she would be seeking "concessions" at this summit, the only difference now is there will be no vote before it. Mrs May lives to fight another day.Richard_Nabavi said:I suspect that the vote is being delayed to give time for the PM to ask for something at this week's summit.
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Abba to reform and play Wembley?DanSmith said:What on earth is she going to say.
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I was assured on here yesterday by PB finest minds that May could not pull the vote.
What has changed ?0 -
May to survive to 2019 is the political equivalent of backing Many Clouds in the Jan 2017 Cotswold Chase.0
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I am off to enjoy Xmas - all the best !!!!!DanSmith said:What on earth is she going to say.
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Good question. She still needs to get a vote through Parliament, I understand, to get the vote pulled.Yorkcity said:I was assured on here yesterday by PB finest minds that May could not pull the vote.
What has changed ?0 -
She can't even resign coherently.RochdalePioneers said:Surely anything other than her reaigbresig
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Nothing yet. It's far more likely that it is being delayed slightly.Yorkcity said:I was assured on here yesterday by PB finest minds that May could not pull the vote.
What has changed ?0 -
With May in charge they would winOldKingCole said:
She would also be great in the surrender negotiations .........0 -
The consenus down the pub last week ( anecdote alert ) wasnt so much about whether Mrs Mays deal was good or bad, but rather that all our politicans didnt give a damn about the electorate. Maybe nobody is going to come out of this well,0
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Grieve might be able to conjure something up !AlastairMeeks said:
Good question. She still needs to get a vote through Parliament, I understand, to get the vote pulled.Yorkcity said:I was assured on here yesterday by PB finest minds that May could not pull the vote.
What has changed ?0 -
Meaningful vote delayed = amendments to the meaningful vote jettisoned and have to be brought again next time?0
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I've given May credit where due but she has totally lost my respect and sympathy if the MV does not happen. It was lost big anyway if losing it is such a problem what the flying heck was the point of debating it for days?0
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I can't see what other option she had. There was no way she could countenance losing by 200 votes, and she would've been lucky to do that well.
On her right the Brexiteers will never compromise and on her left the Remainers will never compromise.
Only option is a GE and let the chips fall where they may. Likely outcome - Corbyn as PM.0 -
She was dithering hoping something would turn up. She really does seem clueless.kle4 said:I've given May credit where due but she has totally lost my respect and sympathy if the MV does not happen. It was lost big anyway if losing it is such a problem what the flying heck was the point of debating it for days?
At least if the vote was lost she could go back to the EU and say we need to renegotiate or no deal it is.0 -
Well indeed. And now hundreds of mps are off the hook. I'm sure most would have voted as they said they would but we will never know.PeterMannion said:Massive miscalculation by May (again)
Genuine reason for resigning, 48 letter or HoC VoNC
To try and fail is one thing. To not even try...0 -
Maybe she got some encouraging signals from her conversations with EU leaders over the weekend?0
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3. At least at this stage. Even if she flies out and they tell her to do one, she has been allowed three or four more days in Downing Street.Barnesian said:
Possibilities (not in order of probability):DanSmith said:What on earth is she going to say.
1. Resign
2. Free vote on her deal (to avoid cabinet resignations)
3. Re-negotiate with EU (kick the can)
4. Let the people decide
Any other possibilities?
What is the most probable?0 -
Like the ones we were told were occurring over the summer before they announced Chequers was a pile of nonsense?Richard_Nabavi said:Maybe she got some encouraging signals from her conversations with EU leaders over the weekend?
They want us to remain. Holding firm increases that chance.0 -
Why can't she do that before the vote, if it can be done at all? The EU is not completely stupid, it knows that the vote can't be won as things stand.Xenon said:
She was dithering hoping something would turn up. She really does seem clueless.kle4 said:I've given May credit where due but she has totally lost my respect and sympathy if the MV does not happen. It was lost big anyway if losing it is such a problem what the flying heck was the point of debating it for days?
At least if the vote was lost she could go back to the EU and say we need to renegotiate or no deal it is.0 -
Good thing May's moved the process along so quickly and we have plenty of time left, then.Richard_Nabavi said:
Nothing yet. It's far more likely that it is being delayed slightly.Yorkcity said:I was assured on here yesterday by PB finest minds that May could not pull the vote.
What has changed ?0 -
I don't think she's going to do anything other than fight on - she will say she had "listened" and commit to gaining concessions on the backstop at the upcoming summit. Vote in January. May enters the NY still PM and I claim my £5. Quite a survivalist.0
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It honestly wouldn't surprise me if she told the EU she could win the vote.Richard_Nabavi said:
Why can't she do that before the vote, if it can be done at all? The EU is not completely stupid, it knows that the vote can't be won as things stand.Xenon said:
She was dithering hoping something would turn up. She really does seem clueless.kle4 said:I've given May credit where due but she has totally lost my respect and sympathy if the MV does not happen. It was lost big anyway if losing it is such a problem what the flying heck was the point of debating it for days?
At least if the vote was lost she could go back to the EU and say we need to renegotiate or no deal it is.
It's now dawning on her that she can't.0 -
It is an absolute clusterfuck!! Our political class is beyond redemption.Alanbrooke said:The consenus down the pub last week ( anecdote alert ) wasnt so much about whether Mrs Mays deal was good or bad, but rather that all our politicans didnt give a damn about the electorate. Maybe nobody is going to come out of this well,
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A snake. But competent.OldKingCole said:0 -
I suppose one ought to be sorry for the Queen. Can't settle down to an afternoons TV since she'll be worrying that Theresa May might turn up at any moment.0
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I think we should call the Remain fanatics - those that refuse to accept that they lost the referendum - the TMs.
aka The Mardy-arses. Very appropriate.0 -
Ken Clarke is the only person with the necessary experience in HoC at this crucial crisis point, but obviously comes with the whole europhile baggage.OldKingCole said:0 -
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There's no dignity in losing by that much. It's the equivalent of being told you're shit.kle4 said:
Yes she could. And go down with dignity.Fenster said:I can't see what other option she had. There was no way she could countenance losing by 200 votes, and she would've been lucky to do that well.
.
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this cohort yes, but things will change as they always do. More important is do the policies change ? I sincerely hope so.SouthamObserver said:
It is an absolute clusterfuck!! Our political class is beyond redemption.Alanbrooke said:The consenus down the pub last week ( anecdote alert ) wasnt so much about whether Mrs Mays deal was good or bad, but rather that all our politicans didnt give a damn about the electorate. Maybe nobody is going to come out of this well,
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Funnily enough I was thinking he could be the best of a bad bunch. At least you know where you stand with him.rottenborough said:
Ken Clarke is the only person with the necessary experience in HoC at this crucial crisis point, but obviously comes with the whole europhile baggage.OldKingCole said:0 -
But what is the point of the EU offering her concessions when they know she cannot deliver?KentRising said:
It has long been thought that she would be seeking "concessions" at this summit, the only difference now is there will be no vote before it. Mrs May lives to fight another day.Richard_Nabavi said:I suspect that the vote is being delayed to give time for the PM to ask for something at this week's summit.
This is the end of the road for her I think.0 -
Good point.rottenborough said:
Ken Clarke is the only person with the necessary experience in HoC at this crucial crisis point, but obviously comes with the whole europhile baggage.OldKingCole said:0 -
It increases the chance of Revoke, but it also increases the chance of a No Deal disaster. My guess is that the EU27 leaders will want to help Mrs May, but only within very limited parameters, and I don't expect it to make much difference.kle4 said:
Like the ones we were told were occurring over the summer before they announced Chequers was a pile of nonsense?Richard_Nabavi said:Maybe she got some encouraging signals from her conversations with EU leaders over the weekend?
They want us to remain. Holding firm increases that chance.0 -
Alright, you can have 13/8.Scrapheap_as_was said:WHAT
A
JOKE.
Lucky I didn't take up PtP's generous 6/4 double !
You drive a hard bargain, young man.0 -
If the ERG had any political nous at all, some of them would have cultivated some relationships with discontented Remain-leaning Tories and would be coordinating with them to announce that they've put letters in this evening or (more likely) tomorrow.KentRising said:I don't think she's going to do anything other than fight on - she will say she had "listened" and commit to gaining concessions on the backstop at the upcoming summit. Vote in January. May enters the NY still PM and I claim my £5. Quite a survivalist.
From what we've seen so far though, they don't seem capable of anything beyond bluster.0 -
To be fair to the Brexiteer rebels, if (and it's a big if) the EU make some meaningful concessions over the backstop then their strategy will have been vindicated.
Personally I think it's more likely, in light of the court judgement, that the EU are shaping up to make a big "Remain on these better terms" offer.0 -
But why should they even consider talking again until parliament formally considers their offer? Given they and parliament are both seeking the same aim - remain - they've no incentive to make leaving easier.Richard_Nabavi said:
Why can't she do that before the vote, if it can be done at all? The EU is not completely stupid, it knows that the vote can't be won as things stand.Xenon said:
She was dithering hoping something would turn up. She really does seem clueless.kle4 said:I've given May credit where due but she has totally lost my respect and sympathy if the MV does not happen. It was lost big anyway if losing it is such a problem what the flying heck was the point of debating it for days?
At least if the vote was lost she could go back to the EU and say we need to renegotiate or no deal it is.0 -
A reference for the youngsters there.Pulpstar said:May to survive to 2019 is the political equivalent of backing Many Clouds in the Jan 2017 Cotswold Chase.
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She should have gone long ago. But better late than never.Floater said:May is utterly unfit to be PM.
Seriously, end this .0 -
I hope the rebels are right. But given how petrified so many mps are of no deal, and how many want to remain, I cannot see it.Tissue_Price said:To be fair to the Brexiteer rebels, if (and it's a big if) the EU make some meaningful concessions over the backstop then their strategy will have been vindicated.
Personally I think it's more likely, in light of the court judgement, that the EU are shaping up to make a big "Remain on these better terms" offer.0 -
There is no concession they can offer her. The deal is falling apart because of the backstop and EU will not allow an escape clause in the backstop because then it is not a backstop.anothernick said:
But what is the point of the EU offering her concessions when they know she cannot deliver?KentRising said:
It has long been thought that she would be seeking "concessions" at this summit, the only difference now is there will be no vote before it. Mrs May lives to fight another day.Richard_Nabavi said:I suspect that the vote is being delayed to give time for the PM to ask for something at this week's summit.
This is the end of the road for her I think.0 -
Would a parliamentary lock from transition to backstop/FTA be OK ? THey keep getting our money during transition.Tissue_Price said:To be fair to the Brexiteer rebels, if (and it's a big if) the EU make some meaningful concessions over the backstop then their strategy will have been vindicated.
Personally I think it's more likely, in light of the court judgement, that the EU are shaping up to make a big "Remain on these better terms" offer.0 -
https://twitter.com/ianjamesparsley/status/1072105343545720833?s=21MarqueeMark said:Nobody. Has. A. Clue........
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The one issue that requires caution is there is a good chance TM could win and then cannot be moved for 12 monthsStereotomy said:
If the ERG had any political nous at all, some of them would have cultivated some relationships with discontented Remain-leaning Tories and would be coordinating with them to announce that they've put letters in this evening or (more likely) tomorrow.KentRising said:I don't think she's going to do anything other than fight on - she will say she had "listened" and commit to gaining concessions on the backstop at the upcoming summit. Vote in January. May enters the NY still PM and I claim my £5. Quite a survivalist.
From what we've seen so far though, they don't seem capable of anything beyond bluster.0 -
Mr Brooke,
I detect (drunken anecdote alert) three groupings. Brexit voters who will go ballistic, Remain voters who have gone quiet (I think they feel a little guilty that the referendum will be ignored) and Remain voters who don't give a monkeys for democracy and never did anyway,0 -
I've always held a low opinion of politicians, but it has never been lower. The "national interest" doesn't seem to get a look in. Our politicians are either eyeing up general elections and leadership elections, or they are looking for cover/events to absolve them of responsibility for something they overwhelmingly voted for. There's maybe 10-20% of our MPs I don't find contemptible, and I don't think all that highly of that tranche either.Alanbrooke said:The consenus down the pub last week ( anecdote alert ) wasnt so much about whether Mrs Mays deal was good or bad, but rather that all our politicans didnt give a damn about the electorate. Maybe nobody is going to come out of this well,
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But only if they then accept the concessions, and the deal goes through. Given how much they've been shouting the deal is an abomination, that's going to be a difficult U-turn, and meanwhile they've stirred up the 2nd referendum hornet's nest.Tissue_Price said:To be fair to the Brexiteer rebels, if (and it's a big if) the EU make some meaningful concessions over the backstop then their strategy will have been vindicated.
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If we had more people in the HoC like him we wouldn't be in such a mess.Sean_F said:
Funnily enough I was thinking he could be the best of a bad bunch. At least you know where you stand with him.rottenborough said:
Ken Clarke is the only person with the necessary experience in HoC at this crucial crisis point, but obviously comes with the whole europhile baggage.OldKingCole said:
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Hence why a vote and resignation was the way to go. Allowed for a new attempt however unrealistic. But no, avoid a humiliating defeat...by acknowledging you were to be humiatingly defeated. Right.anothernick said:
But what is the point of the EU offering her concessions when they know she cannot deliver?KentRising said:
It has long been thought that she would be seeking "concessions" at this summit, the only difference now is there will be no vote before it. Mrs May lives to fight another day.Richard_Nabavi said:I suspect that the vote is being delayed to give time for the PM to ask for something at this week's summit.
This is the end of the road for her I think.
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Well that equates, in practical terms, to endless transition.Pulpstar said:
Would a parliamentary lock from transition to backstop/FTA be OK ? THey keep getting our money during transition.Tissue_Price said:To be fair to the Brexiteer rebels, if (and it's a big if) the EU make some meaningful concessions over the backstop then their strategy will have been vindicated.
Personally I think it's more likely, in light of the court judgement, that the EU are shaping up to make a big "Remain on these better terms" offer.0 -
Well, it depends what she says at 3.30, but if it's generally agreed to be crap, that will probably be the best shot they'll have had so far. Then again, if she's only delaying for a week, they may be better off waiting.Big_G_NorthWales said:
The one issue that requires caution is there is a good chance TM could win and then cannot be moved for 12 monthsStereotomy said:
If the ERG had any political nous at all, some of them would have cultivated some relationships with discontented Remain-leaning Tories and would be coordinating with them to announce that they've put letters in this evening or (more likely) tomorrow.KentRising said:I don't think she's going to do anything other than fight on - she will say she had "listened" and commit to gaining concessions on the backstop at the upcoming summit. Vote in January. May enters the NY still PM and I claim my £5. Quite a survivalist.
From what we've seen so far though, they don't seem capable of anything beyond bluster.0 -
Yes, having had their strategy vindicated, many of them still wouldn't vote for it. The deal would still need some cross-party support (or abstention).Richard_Nabavi said:
But only if they then accept the concessions, and the deal goes through. Given how much they've been shouting the deal is an abomination, that's going to be a difficult U-turn, and meanwhile they've stirred up the 2nd referendum hornet's nest.Tissue_Price said:To be fair to the Brexiteer rebels, if (and it's a big if) the EU make some meaningful concessions over the backstop then their strategy will have been vindicated.
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It wouldn't be a U-turn if the concessions were significant. Though as others have said, I don't see why the EU would make that offer.Richard_Nabavi said:
But only if they then accept the concessions, and the deal goes through. Given how much they've been shouting the deal is an abomination, that's going to be a difficult U-turn, and meanwhile they've stirred up the 2nd referendum hornet's nest.Tissue_Price said:To be fair to the Brexiteer rebels, if (and it's a big if) the EU make some meaningful concessions over the backstop then their strategy will have been vindicated.
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It's not even the manoeuvering for advantage that annoys me so much, as the evasion of responsibility.glw said:
I've always held a low opinion of politicians, but it has never been lower. The "national interest" doesn't seem to get a look in. Our politicians are either eyeing up general elections and leadership elections, or they are looking for cover/events to absolve them of responsibility for something they overwhelmingly voted for. There's maybe 10-20% of our MPs I don't find contemptible, and I don't think all that highly of that tranche either.Alanbrooke said:The consenus down the pub last week ( anecdote alert ) wasnt so much about whether Mrs Mays deal was good or bad, but rather that all our politicans didnt give a damn about the electorate. Maybe nobody is going to come out of this well,
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About the best CV we can hope for in a potential PM nowadayskle4 said:
A snake. But competent.OldKingCole said:
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Jacob knows about incompetence himself...
https://twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/10721070210576220160 -
Not far off that myself except I would say we are probably 40% leave, 40% stay and 20% wibble.CD13 said:Mr Brooke,
I detect (drunken anecdote alert) three groupings. Brexit voters who will go ballistic, Remain voters who have gone quiet (I think they feel a little guilty that the referendum will be ignored) and Remain voters who don't give a monkeys for democracy and never did anyway,
The problem for the political parties is that the wobbly centre can turn on a 50 cent piece and what was a winner last week will be a millstobe next. This basically comes down to a lack of clear leadership and not enough people having any real enthusiasm for the European project.
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This ECJ ruling and the fact May is delaying the Meaningful Vote to see if she can get any concession from Brussels (very unlikely) means EUref2 looks increasingly likely as neither Deal or No Deal has a majority in the Commons unlike EUref2, maybe with an extension of Article 50 for a few months to allow it to take place as the EU is reportedly open to.
Based on civil servants reported preparations yesterday the question would be either Deal v Remain or Leave v Remain and if Leave won a second Leave with Deal or No Deal question0 -
Exactly, it would be another backstop in effect.Tissue_Price said:
Well that equates, in practical terms, to endless transition.Pulpstar said:
Would a parliamentary lock from transition to backstop/FTA be OK ? THey keep getting our money during transition.Tissue_Price said:To be fair to the Brexiteer rebels, if (and it's a big if) the EU make some meaningful concessions over the backstop then their strategy will have been vindicated.
Personally I think it's more likely, in light of the court judgement, that the EU are shaping up to make a big "Remain on these better terms" offer.0 -
It is a difficult judgement. Even I do not want TM locked into another 12 monthsStereotomy said:
Well, it depends what she says at 3.30, but if it's generally agreed to be crap, that will probably be the best shot they'll have had so far. Then again, if she's only delaying for a week, they may be better off waiting.Big_G_NorthWales said:
The one issue that requires caution is there is a good chance TM could win and then cannot be moved for 12 monthsStereotomy said:
If the ERG had any political nous at all, some of them would have cultivated some relationships with discontented Remain-leaning Tories and would be coordinating with them to announce that they've put letters in this evening or (more likely) tomorrow.KentRising said:I don't think she's going to do anything other than fight on - she will say she had "listened" and commit to gaining concessions on the backstop at the upcoming summit. Vote in January. May enters the NY still PM and I claim my £5. Quite a survivalist.
From what we've seen so far though, they don't seem capable of anything beyond bluster.
I want her to take this as far as the vote and we all need to be mindful the public do like her0 -
Yes. We see the details. Most don’t.Alanbrooke said:The consenus down the pub last week ( anecdote alert ) wasnt so much about whether Mrs Mays deal was good or bad, but rather that all our politicans didnt give a damn about the electorate. Maybe nobody is going to come out of this well,
“It’s a mess”
“Changed your minds?”
(pretty please....)
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She can deliver if they drop the backstop. Will they?anothernick said:
But what is the point of the EU offering her concessions when they know she cannot deliver?KentRising said:
It has long been thought that she would be seeking "concessions" at this summit, the only difference now is there will be no vote before it. Mrs May lives to fight another day.Richard_Nabavi said:I suspect that the vote is being delayed to give time for the PM to ask for something at this week's summit.
This is the end of the road for her I think.
I think not to May. Not without a vote first. They'd sooner push us to revoke with May in charge.0 -
The Vote is being delayed?
But I heard Mr Gove on the radio this morning saying it wouldn't be. Surely he wasn't fibbing?0 -
Maybe they should delay the MV till March 28th 2019.0
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I've had to bet on another no-brainer free-money oppo, John Bercow as next Tory leader....Peter_the_Punter said:
Alright, you can have 13/8.Scrapheap_as_was said:WHAT
A
JOKE.
Lucky I didn't take up PtP's generous 6/4 double !
You drive a hard bargain, young man.0 -
One of the upsides of the current political chaos is it provides May with a lot of opportunities to prank her cabinet.Peter_the_Punter said:The Vote is being delayed?
But I heard Mr Gove on the radio this morning saying it wouldn't be. Surely he wasn't fibbing?0 -
GE also solves nothing as even if Corbyn became PM also clear no majority in the Commons for his Brexit but with permanent Customs Union but not Single Market eitherFenster said:I can't see what other option she had. There was no way she could countenance losing by 200 votes, and she would've been lucky to do that well.
On her right the Brexiteers will never compromise and on her left the Remainers will never compromise.
Only option is a GE and let the chips fall where they may. Likely outcome - Corbyn as PM.0 -
Time to throw May overboard.
Mr. Punter, to be fair to Gove, that was likely before May's decisive conference call to hold a vote on delaying the vote on making a decision.0 -
They tolerate her. That's more than most politicians but I don't think they like her.Big_G_NorthWales said:
It is a difficult judgement. Even I do not want TM locked into another 12 monthsStereotomy said:
Well, it depends what she says at 3.30, but if it's generally agreed to be crap, that will probably be the best shot they'll have had so far. Then again, if she's only delaying for a week, they may be better off waiting.Big_G_NorthWales said:
The one issue that requires caution is there is a good chance TM could win and then cannot be moved for 12 monthsStereotomy said:
If the ERG had any political nous at all, some of them would have cultivated some relationships with discontented Remain-leaning Tories and would be coordinating with them to announce that they've put letters in this evening or (more likely) tomorrow.KentRising said:I don't think she's going to do anything other than fight on - she will say she had "listened" and commit to gaining concessions on the backstop at the upcoming summit. Vote in January. May enters the NY still PM and I claim my £5. Quite a survivalist.
From what we've seen so far though, they don't seem capable of anything beyond bluster.
I want her to take this as far as the vote and we all need to be mindful the public do like her0 -
Dear god no.OldKingCole said:
I would however accept Ed Balls right now!!!
That's how bad it is.......0 -
What? Haven't you been saying he'd get it through?HYUFD said:
GE also solves nothing as even if Corbyn became PM also clear no majority in the Commons for his Brexit but with permanent Customs Union but not Single Market eitherFenster said:I can't see what other option she had. There was no way she could countenance losing by 200 votes, and she would've been lucky to do that well.
On her right the Brexiteers will never compromise and on her left the Remainers will never compromise.
Only option is a GE and let the chips fall where they may. Likely outcome - Corbyn as PM.0
