politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » BACK TO THE FUTURE – Part 2 The past is a foreign country – Re

kle4 said:

It is fair to suggest at least that given their positions they cannot admit they will renegotiate, as it would undermine their current stance. Someone now on the outside could call it right. However, it cannot be assured.

Prodi is correct to the extent that it isn't a binary choice between Deal and absolutely no deal. By No Deal we're talking about the UK not accepting the current proposal of money, citizens rights, level playing field and commitment to soft Irish border against a two year transition and talks towards a permanent arrangement.

So what happens if the UK rejects the WA? There won't be a transition period, nor will there be any discussion of a permanent arrangement. The EU will put a lot of pressure on the UK to agree the stuff in the WA because that's what it wants. There will almost certainly be a very volatile situation in the UK until it does. In the meantime, the EU will look to contain the damage on a unilateral basis and may agree some limited deals, possibly on a temporary basis.

Ultimately, any deal with the EU is necessarily better than nothing and worse than what we have. It's a big space. How much better than nothing and how much worse than what we have?

Fpt to answer @gardenwalker
This was in the Observer today. Beginnings of a Remain manifesto?
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/dec/08/remain-leaders-and-rivals-gear-up-for-second-referendum-campaign-with-new-pledge-on-nhs-funding
EMIC might as well be PM.

grabcocque said:

kle4 said:

Not sure either bunch are prepared to even consider these possibilities Alanbrooke. Winning is all that matters.

I think it really is as simple as that.

1) Parliament has a majority in favour of remain
2) The ECJ is expected to make remain painless
3) The Brexit buccaneers have ballsed up the withdrawal process spectacularly

Therefore:

4) Let's grind those Brexit bastards into dust.

That's a courageous way to look at 52% of the voters.

Donny43 said:

grabcocque said:

kle4 said:

Not sure either bunch are prepared to even consider these possibilities Alanbrooke. Winning is all that matters.

I think it really is as simple as that.

1) Parliament has a majority in favour of remain
2) The ECJ is expected to make remain painless
3) The Brexit buccaneers have ballsed up the withdrawal process spectacularly

Therefore:

4) Let's grind those Brexit bastards into dust.

That's a courageous way to look at 52% of the voters.

The voters are thick, they need to be saved from their own stupidity.

I mean last year they came close to making Corbyn PM.

grabcocque said:

AmpfieldAndy said:

There will be a huge political backlash if we don’t leave.

Nah there won't. There'll be lots of impotent gammon fury on websites nobody cares about. Maybe Nigel Farage will stand as an MP again, and lose again, and get fewer votes than a man dressed as a shark again.

But that's about it.

Farage will be back in the EU parliament no doubt

AmpfieldAndy said:

There will be a huge political backlash if we don’t leave. If we stay in, it will finish the Tories for a generation because the betrayal of Brexit, having betrayed fishing (again) and the DUP means no one will ever trust them, certainly not the electorate.

Corbyn will be the big winner from no Brexit and then we shall all be in serious trouble even those who don’t care about Britain being subsumed into a United States of Europe.

If we don't leave it will almost certainly be because the voters themselves have decided that in EUref2, in which case there would inevitably be a boost for UKIP or a new Farage party but as the 2015 general election proved that could harm Labour as much as the Tories.

Under a Corbyn premiership the Tories will also always be in the game, he simply does not have the broad reach beyond the leftwing comfort zone Blair did to ensure the Tories will be kept out for a generation, indeed it is perfectly possible Boris could become leader of the opposition and lead the Brexiteer backlash

Restrict the franchise to homeowners who make a net contribution to the Exchequer.

Caroline Lucas seems to be the People's Choice if this C4 debate is anything to go by.

Benpointer said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Donny43 said:

grabcocque said:

kle4 said:

Not sure either bunch are prepared to even consider these possibilities Alanbrooke. Winning is all that matters.

I think it really is as simple as that.

1) Parliament has a majority in favour of remain
2) The ECJ is expected to make remain painless
3) The Brexit buccaneers have ballsed up the withdrawal process spectacularly

Therefore:

4) Let's grind those Brexit bastards into dust.

That's a courageous way to look at 52% of the voters.

The voters are thick, they need to be saved from their own stupidity.

I mean last year they came close to making Corbyn PM.

... and in 2015 they actually did make Cameron PM!

Yeah, but remember the alternative was chaos with Ed Miliband.

twistedfirestopper3 said:

Caroline Lucas seems to be the People's Choice if this C4 debate is anything to go by.

That is a C4 debate, what do you expect?

AmpfieldAndy said:

There will be a huge political backlash if we don’t leave. If we stay in, it will finish the Tories for a generation because the betrayal of Brexit, having betrayed fishing (again) and the DUP means no one will ever trust them, certainly not the electorate.

Corbyn will be the big winner from no Brexit and then we shall all be in serious trouble even those who don’t care about Britain being subsumed into a United States of Europe.

Nah, most people would be glad that it's over; the ERG's star has crashed and burned, yes they will make a fuss but they'll be back where they started as eccentrics to whom most people won't give a hearing.

The viewing figures of this debate will be interesting.

dyingswan said:

Oh dear Barry Gardiner. Embarrassing,prissy and ill informed. No wonder Labour has been keeping its head down on Brexit. They have nothing to say.

He goes from bad to worse and his idea of a GE met in stony silence

Lucas and Rees Mogg winning this debate, whilst the other two floundered shows how redundant a May versus Corbyn debate would have been on Brexit.

Labour are banking on Remain supporters voting for them regardless. And they will.

Gallowgate said:

Labour are banking on Remain supporters voting for them regardless. And they will.

One of them on that debate clearly stated they will not without a 'peoples vote'

grabcocque said:

AmpfieldAndy said:

There will be a huge political backlash if we don’t leave.

Nah there won't. There'll be lots of impotent gammon fury on websites nobody cares about. Maybe Nigel Farage will stand as an MP again, and lose again, and get fewer votes than a man dressed as a shark again.

But that's about it.

You love using the word gammon don't you.

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Gallowgate said:

Labour are banking on Remain supporters voting for them regardless. And they will.

One of them on that debate clearly stated they will not without a 'peoples vote'

If she lived in a marginal she would. That's FPTP for you.

AmpfieldAndy said:

HYUFD said:

AmpfieldAndy said:

HYUFD said:

AmpfieldAndy said:

There will be a huge political backlash if we don’t leave. If we stay in, it will finish the Tories for a generation because the betrayal of Brexit, having betrayed fishing (again) and the DUP means no one will ever trust them, certainly not the electorate.

Corbyn will be the big winner from no Brexit and then we shall all be in serious trouble even those who don’t care about Britain being subsumed into a United States of Europe.

If we don't leave it will almost certainly be because the voters themselves have decided that in EUref2, in which case there would inevitably be a boost for UKIP or a new Farage party but as the 2015 general election proved that could harm Labour as much as the Tories.

Under a Corbyn premiership the Tories will also always be in the game, he simply does not have the broad reach beyond the leftwing comfort zone Blair did to ensure the Tories will be kept out for a generation, indeed it is perfectly possible Boris could become leader of the opposition and lead the Brexiteer backlash

A choice betwwen May’s deal and Remain who lost the first referendum is not a choice and would simp,y fuel discontent and a feeling of resentment. Corbyn’s opposition will come from his own MPs. There is no unity and nothing Conservative in May’s Party.

Yet May's Tories still at least tie Corbyn Labour in almost every poll even when in government now and all the problems they are having, let alone when the opposition to an unpopular hapless future Corbyn government, which just proves my point. Before Blair won in 1997 Labour was at least 10%+ ahead in every poll.


It is also possible it could be a Remain v Leave referendum (if Leave wins Deal v No Deal a second question) as civil servants have also been preparing for as an alternative to Remain v Deal alone

See how the polls look once the betrayal takes place and you are in denial about the fa t that May lost 20% in the polls in the last election.

May got 42%, the highest Tory voteshare since 1983 v Corbyn, all that happened was Labour squeezed the minor parties, there was very little net Tory to Labour movement. Indeed amongst voters as a whole the Deal trounces No Deal 65% to 35% with YouGov and even a plurality of Tory voters back the Deal, it is only UKIP voters who back No Deal by a majority.

Plus of course as Boris comfortably leads with Tory members in polling even if a betrayal narrative took place Boris has distanced himself enough from Chequers and May's Deal he could win back Leavers as Leader of the Opposition if Corbyn does become PM or we end up remaining in the EU after an EU ref2

AmpfieldAndy said:

IanB2 said:

AmpfieldAndy said:

There will be a huge political backlash if we don’t leave. If we stay in, it will finish the Tories for a generation because the betrayal of Brexit, having betrayed fishing (again) and the DUP means no one will ever trust them, certainly not the electorate.

Corbyn will be the big winner from no Brexit and then we shall all be in serious trouble even those who don’t care about Britain being subsumed into a United States of Europe.

Nah, most people would be glad that it's over; the ERG's star has crashed and burned, yes they will make a fuss but they'll be back where they started as eccentrics to whom most people won't give a hearing.

I am not worried about the ERG. I tend to agree with you about them. I am rather more concerned about the righteous indignation of the 17.4m who voted Leave and who will know the Tory Remoaners denied them what they won at the ballot box.

The Tories are probably stuffed either way.

If a second vote is decisive in choosing to abandon this whole failed experiment I doubt there will be that much of a kickback; the problem is if we get another close result.

IanB2 said:

AmpfieldAndy said:

IanB2 said:

AmpfieldAndy said:

There will be a huge political backlash if we don’t leave. If we stay in, it will finish the Tories for a generation because the betrayal of Brexit, having betrayed fishing (again) and the DUP means no one will ever trust them, certainly not the electorate.

Corbyn will be the big winner from no Brexit and then we shall all be in serious trouble even those who don’t care about Britain being subsumed into a United States of Europe.

Nah, most people would be glad that it's over; the ERG's star has crashed and burned, yes they will make a fuss but they'll be back where they started as eccentrics to whom most people won't give a hearing.

I am not worried about the ERG. I tend to agree with you about them. I am rather more concerned about the righteous indignation of the 17.4m who voted Leave and who will know the Tory Remoaners denied them what they won at the ballot box.

The Tories are probably stuffed either way.

If a second vote is decisive in choosing to abandon this whole failed experiment I doubt there will be that much of a kickback; the problem is if we get another close result.

Of course it will be a close result!

twistedfirestopper3 said:

Caroline Lucas seems to be the People's Choice if this C4 debate is anything to go by.

I was at the Exel rally for the People's Vote this afternoon. There were about 10 speakers from across the political spectrum including Heseltine, Cable and a clutch of Labour MPs. But it was Caroline Lucas who set the rally on fire. What passion. What an orator. She got a standing ovation. I was really impressed.

The debate cleared that up then, the reasoned arguments have changed my mind and there’s a clear route ahead for the nation.

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Beverley_C said:

Benpointer said:

grabcocque said:

AmpfieldAndy said:

There will be a huge political backlash if we don’t leave.

Nah there won't. There'll be lots of impotent gammon fury on websites nobody cares about. Maybe Nigel Farage will stand as an MP again, and lose again, and get fewer votes than a man dressed as a shark again.

But that's about it.

Leavers tend to be older and not many over-65s want to man the barricades.

Also, in the Brexit supporting age groups, 400,000 per year are departing the UK (and EU) permanently for the Heavenly Uplands, whilst about 700,000 younger voters have come on to the electoral roll.

Leave won by 1.3m (ish) - two years ago.

And younger voters stay young forever do they?

I can't see the past two years will have convinced many voters to switch from Remain to Leave.

grabcocque said:

As Kellner points out, it's not an age thing, it's a cohort thing. The cohort of people born before the EU are europhobes, the cohort of people born after are europhile.

Does that explain the 1975 result?

Benpointer said:

Beverley_C said:

grabcocque said:

Beverley_C said:

Benpointer said:

grabcocque said:

AmpfieldAndy said:

There will be a huge political backlash if we don’t leave.

Nah there won't. There'll be lots of impotent gammon fury on websites nobody cares about. Maybe Nigel Farage will stand as an MP again, and lose again, and get fewer votes than a man dressed as a shark again.

But that's about it.

Leavers tend to be older and not many over-65s want to man the barricades.

Also, in the Brexit supporting age groups, 400,000 per year are departing the UK (and EU) permanently for the Heavenly Uplands, whilst about 700,000 younger voters have come on to the electoral roll.

Leave won by 1.3m (ish) - two years ago.

Peter Kellner estimates that the leave majority will have evaporated by mid-Jan 2019, given the rate at which gammon die off and new remain voters come of age.

Whatever the figures, this referendum would be a closer run thing than last time. Would Remain win? I do not know, but if the country still votes "Leave" or "May's Deal" that that is it.

This time - we know in detail what we are voting for. The real question is "Can the referendum be set up in time"?

Good question Beverley.

I for one cannot for the life of me see why it can't be done in four weeks max. We can do an GE in that time and a referendum is more straighforward. We certainly don't need six months of the various campaigns slagging each other off.

The HOC and the wording are the problem. I am sure the HOL would not hold it up but with further EU discussions, Christmas, and then a campaign I would expect March/ April to be a minimum. The EU will postpone A50 in these circumstances but they have their elections in May and if we remain a campaign period for those will be required

However, it largely depends on the cross party support, which I think may well be there by January, to get it over the line

Gallowgate said:

Labour are banking on Remain supporters voting for them regardless. And they will.

Really? - you may well get to find out.

Great piece @alanbrooke - I'm sold, let's stay in.

Big_G_NorthWales said:

dyingswan said:

Oh dear Barry Gardiner. Embarrassing,prissy and ill informed. No wonder Labour has been keeping its head down on Brexit. They have nothing to say.

He goes from bad to worse and his idea of a GE met in stony silence

People aren't stupid, no matter what the arch remainers on here like to tell us.

An election call is just a naked attempt to gain power and people can see that.

Labour has no answers to this problem either - even a member of their shadow cabinet described their position as " a load of bollocks"

AmpfieldAndy said:

IanB2 said:

AmpfieldAndy said:

There will be a huge political backlash if we don’t leave. If we stay in, it will finish the Tories for a generation because the betrayal of Brexit, having betrayed fishing (again) and the DUP means no one will ever trust them, certainly not the electorate.

Corbyn will be the big winner from no Brexit and then we shall all be in serious trouble even those who don’t care about Britain being subsumed into a United States of Europe.

Nah, most people would be glad that it's over; the ERG's star has crashed and burned, yes they will make a fuss but they'll be back where they started as eccentrics to whom most people won't give a hearing.

I am not worried about the ERG. I tend to agree with you about them. I am rather more concerned about the righteous indignation of the 17.4m who voted Leave and who will know the Tory Remoaners denied them what they won at the ballot box.

I agree, if the tories somehow contrive to stay they will lose many votes and deservedly so.

AmpfieldAndy said:

HYUFD said:

AmpfieldAndy said:

HYUFD said:

AmpfieldAndy said:

HYUFD said:

AmpfieldAndy said:

There will be a huge political backlash if we don’t leave. If we stay in, it will finish the Tories for a generation because the betrayal of Brexit, having betrayed fishing (again) and the DUP means no one will ever trust them, certainly not the electorate.

Corbyn will be the big winner from no Brexit and then we shall all be in serious trouble even those who don’t care about Britain being subsumed into a United States of Europe.

If we don't leave it will almost certainly be because the voters themselves have decided that in EUref2, in which case there would inevitably be a boost for UKIP or a new Farage party but as the 2015 general election proved that could harm Labour as much as the Tories.

Under a Corbyn premiership the Tories will also always be in the game, he simply does not have the broad reach beyond the leftwing comfort zone Blair did to ensure the Tories will be kept out for a generation, indeed it is perfectly possible Boris could become leader of the opposition and lead the Brexiteer backlash

A choice betwwen May’s deal and Remain who lost the first referendum is not a choice and would simp,y fuel discontent and a feeling of resentment. Corbyn’s opposition will come from his own MPs. There is no unity and nothing Conservative in May’s Party.

May got 42%, the highest Tory voteshare since 1983 v Corbyn, all that happened was Labour squeezed the minor parties, there was very little net Tory to Labour movement. Indeed amongst voters as a whole the Deal trounces No Deal 65% to 35% with YouGov and even a plurality of Tory voters back the Deal, it is only UKIP voters who back No Deal by a majority.

Plus of course as Boris comfortably leads with Tory members in polling even if a betrayal narrative took place Boris has distanced himself enough from Chequers and May's Deal he could win back Leavers as Leader of the Opposition if Corbyn does become PM or we end up remaining in the EU after an EU ref2

'She still lost a 20% lead in the polls, lost her majority and relied on a revival of Scottish Tories that she had nothing to do with. Her deal shows she doesn’t care about the Union. She threw NI under the bus, fuelled Scottish Nationalism as a result and ignored Wales. She betrayed fishermen again. Who did she win over - no one.'

Wrong, it is No Deal actually which could destroy the Union, as the polls in Scotland show only in the event of No Deal does Yes lead some indyref2 polls with over 50% and as Northern Irish polls too show support for a United Ireland also reaches over 50% with a hard border with the Republic.

kle4 said:

Not sure either bunch are prepared to even consider these possibilities Alanbrooke. Winning is all that matters.

Define winning right now :-)

Quite enjoyed that debate. Nice to see Caroline Lucas having to defend her points for once as in the GE debates she normally gets a free ride.

AmpfieldAndy said:

IanB2 said:

AmpfieldAndy said:

IanB2 said:

AmpfieldAndy said:

There will be a huge political backlash if we don’t leave. If we stay in, it will finish the Tories for a generation because the betrayal of Brexit, having betrayed fishing (again) and the DUP means no one will ever trust them, certainly not the electorate.

Corbyn will be the big winner from no Brexit and then we shall all be in serious trouble even those who don’t care about Britain being subsumed into a United States of Europe.

Nah, most people would be glad that it's over; the ERG's star has crashed and burned, yes they will make a fuss but they'll be back where they started as eccentrics to whom most people won't give a hearing.

I am not worried about the ERG. I tend to agree with you about them. I am rather more concerned about the righteous indignation of the 17.4m who voted Leave and who will know the Tory Remoaners denied them what they won at the ballot box.

The Tories are probably stuffed either way.

If a second vote is decisive in choosing to abandon this whole failed experiment I doubt there will be that much of a kickback; the problem is if we get another close result.

Maybe. I think there will be a lot of resentment amongst Leavers that May showed gross negligence in not preparing for no deal. Tories who voted Leave like me now know the ERG are all talk and no substance, that Tory Remainers despise the electorate and that the party is increasingly Milibandite and has no obvious Conservative characteristics or policies.

That's where I am. I have not renewed my Party membership. I have worked hard for the Conservative Party for the past 40 years. But right now, they can forget my money, my time, my vote.

Any negotiating team that can get themselves enmeshed in the backstop, whilst refusing to plan for - and so threaten the EU with the possibility of - No Deal Brexit has lost me.

Getting the backstop replaced - so that leaving is 100% within our control - is the only thing I can see getting me (half-heartedly) supporting them again.

Donny43 said:

John_M said:

IanB2 said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Beverley_C said:

Benpointer said:

grabcocque said:

AmpfieldAndy said:

There will be a huge political backlash if we don’t leave.

Nah there won't. There'll be lots of impotent gammon fury on websites nobody cares about. Maybe Nigel Farage will stand as an MP again, and lose again, and get fewer votes than a man dressed as a shark again.

But that's about it.

Leavers tend to be older and not many over-65s want to man the barricades.

Also, in the Brexit supporting age groups, 400,000 per year are departing the UK (and EU) permanently for the Heavenly Uplands, whilst about 700,000 younger voters have come on to the electoral roll.

Leave won by 1.3m (ish) - two years ago.

And younger voters stay young forever do they?

Most of us understand your point. The question is whether the 2016 outcome and the fiasco since has frozen the general process of people moving toward Brexit as they move toward retirement.

My wife has flipped from Remain to Leave. I assure you that it is nothing to do with me. I don't think things are as simple as people make out.

I'd be very pleased to have a second referendum; I think the Remain campaign would fuck it up again.

Well, they might actually campaign for Remain next time.

I think the campaigns in a 2nd referendum will take a very different shape. If Remain have any sense they won't bother trying to convince Leavers, they'll just concentrate on GOTV, especially the youth vote.

(PS I don't think Remain will very upset if there's a Leave boycott either!)

MarqueeMark said:

AmpfieldAndy said:

IanB2 said:

AmpfieldAndy said:

IanB2 said:

AmpfieldAndy said:

There will be a huge political backlash if we don’t leave. If we stay in, it will finish the Tories for a generation because the betrayal of Brexit, having betrayed fishing (again) and the DUP means no one will ever trust them, certainly not the electorate.

Corbyn will be the big winner from no Brexit and then we shall all be in serious trouble even those who don’t care about Britain being subsumed into a United States of Europe.

Nah, most people would be glad that it's over; the ERG's star has crashed and burned, yes they will make a fuss but they'll be back where they started as eccentrics to whom most people won't give a hearing.

I am not worried about the ERG. I tend to agree with you about them. I am rather more concerned about the righteous indignation of the 17.4m who voted Leave and who will know the Tory Remoaners denied them what they won at the ballot box.

The Tories are probably stuffed either way.

If a second vote is decisive in choosing to abandon this whole failed experiment I doubt there will be that much of a kickback; the problem is if we get another close result.

Maybe. I think there will be a lot of resentment amongst Leavers that May showed gross negligence in not preparing for no deal. Tories who voted Leave like me now know the ERG are all talk and no substance, that Tory Remainers despise the electorate and that the party is increasingly Milibandite and has no obvious Conservative characteristics or policies.

That's where I am. I have not renewed my Party membership. I have worked hard for the Conservative Party for the past 40 years. But right now, they can forget my money, my time, my vote.

Any negotiating team that can get themselves enmeshed in the backstop, whilst refusing to plan for - and so threaten the EU with the possibility of - No Deal Brexit has lost me.

Getting the backstop replaced - so that leaving is 100% within our control - is the only thing I can see getting me (half-heartedly) supporting them again.

Pretty much the first thing they did was to promise nervous big businesses that there was absolutely no question of our leaving without a deal. So how could they possibly then be seen to be planning for it? You do remember where a lot of the Tories' money comes from?