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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » BACK TO THE FUTURE – Part 2 The past is a foreign country – Re
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » BACK TO THE FUTURE – Part 2 The past is a foreign country – Remainers and Leavers are in for surprises
In the previous article I highlighted how UK politicians have become so entrenched in their insular debate that they are effectively ignoring the significant changes sweeping Europe.
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So what happens if the UK rejects the WA? There won't be a transition period, nor will there be any discussion of a permanent arrangement. The EU will put a lot of pressure on the UK to agree the stuff in the WA because that's what it wants. There will almost certainly be a very volatile situation in the UK until it does. In the meantime, the EU will look to contain the damage on a unilateral basis and may agree some limited deals, possibly on a temporary basis.
Ultimately, any deal with the EU is necessarily better than nothing and worse than what we have. It's a big space. How much better than nothing and how much worse than what we have?
This was in the Observer today. Beginnings of a Remain manifesto?
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/dec/08/remain-leaders-and-rivals-gear-up-for-second-referendum-campaign-with-new-pledge-on-nhs-funding
EMIC might as well be PM.
It is will interesting to see what tomorrow morning brings
1) Parliament has a majority in favour of remain
2) The ECJ is expected to make remain painless
3) The Brexit buccaneers have ballsed up the withdrawal process spectacularly
Therefore:
4) Let's grind those Brexit bastards into dust.
Corbyn will be the big winner from no Brexit and then we shall all be in serious trouble even those who don’t care about Britain being subsumed into a United States of Europe.
Now it's clear that the Brexit Emperors are prancing around in the nud, it will be hard to get Remainers to take them seriously again.
I mean last year they came close to making Corbyn PM.
But that's about it.
Under a Corbyn premiership the Tories will also always be in the game, he simply does not have the broad reach beyond the leftwing comfort zone Blair did to ensure the Tories will be kept out for a generation, indeed it is perfectly possible Boris could become leader of the opposition and lead the Brexiteer backlash
It is also possible it could be a Remain v Leave referendum (if Leave wins Deal v No Deal a second question) as civil servants have also been preparing for as an alternative to Remain v Deal alone
Leave won by 1.3m (ish) - two years ago.
This time - we know in detail what we are voting for. The real question is "Can the referendum be set up in time"?
One upside of staying in the EU is that sleazy Tory tax dodgers will immediately have their ill-gotten loot exposed to view, along with Russian oligarchs, Arab princelings, drug dealers and murderous dictators of all kinds.
This time it’s different etc I guess.
Plus of course as Boris comfortably leads with Tory members in polling even if a betrayal narrative took place Boris has distanced himself enough from Chequers and May's Deal he could win back Leavers as Leader of the Opposition if Corbyn does become PM or we end up remaining in the EU after an EU ref2
I for one cannot for the life of me see why it can't be done in four weeks max. We can do an GE in that time and a referendum is more straighforward. We certainly don't need six months of the various campaigns slagging each other off.
If a second vote is decisive in choosing to abandon this whole failed experiment I doubt there will be that much of a kickback; the problem is if we get another close result.
Of course, the absolute 1080 degree omnishambles Brexit has become is likely to make the cohort that comes after even more pro-EU.
Good job those virtuous lib dems gave back that donation from that wealthy fraudster... .oh wait.
However, it largely depends on the cross party support, which I think may well be there by January, to get it over the line
An election call is just a naked attempt to gain power and people can see that.
Labour has no answers to this problem either - even a member of their shadow cabinet described their position as " a load of bollocks"
https://www.ucl.ac.uk/news/2018/oct/brexit-referendum-clearly-possible-contingency-planning-must-start-now
A referendum, practically, must take 22 weeks to prepare. Which realistically means 30th May 2019 is the *very* earliest we'll see any referendum.
I'd be very pleased to have a second referendum; I think the Remain campaign would fuck it up again.
She still lost a 20% lead in the polls, lost her majority and relied on a revival of Scottish Tories that she had nothing to do with. Her deal shows she doesn’t care about the Union. She threw NI under the bus, fuelled Scottish Nationalism as a result and ignored Wales. She betrayed fishermen again. Who did she win over - no one.
Wrong, it is No Deal actually which could destroy the Union, as the polls in Scotland show only in the event of No Deal does Yes lead some indyref2 polls with over 50% and as Northern Irish polls too show support for a United Ireland also reaches over 50% with a hard border with the Republic.
Those will be the same polls that showed her with a 20% lead in the last election. It was only the discredited “Vow” that saved the Union last time.
Any negotiating team that can get themselves enmeshed in the backstop, whilst refusing to plan for - and so threaten the EU with the possibility of - No Deal Brexit has lost me.
Getting the backstop replaced - so that leaving is 100% within our control - is the only thing I can see getting me (half-heartedly) supporting them again.
(PS I don't think Remain will very upset if there's a Leave boycott either!)
The only referendum question I can see working is "do you accept the deal" yes or no. if the deal is rejected it would make the EU make proper changes.
I don't see what question could ever be agreed by parliament.