politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » EU and Whose Army?

The_Taxman said:

numbertwelve said:

Beverley_C said:

I do not there will be a second referendum. It is simpler just to cancel Brexit assuming the CJEU lets us.

There will be an outcry no matter what happens.

The political class will not dare to cancel Brexit without the covering excuse of a referendum.

I am not so sure.

1/ If the first referendum was tainted by Russian money for Leave and its affiliated network of organisations and individuals, given the extreme implications for the UK, would HM Government really pursue policies a hostile power had manipulated in their interests? A second vote could be ripe for Russian exploitation again as a Brexit supporter today on BBC 2 said they still have the campaign infrastructure in place and the personnel.

2/ If credible, Independent political scientists will testify under oath to quantifiably assert that malevolent forces had stolen the referendum by subverting the rules through tainted money. Then again, a re-run is ill advised and MPs should take the hit and decide that being in the EU is least bad option.

Will they be more credible than the one splashed on one of the front papers yesterday whose claim relied on Facebook ads being seen by 80 million potential voters?

I find Grabcoque very funny and assume some of what he posts to be satire, which after all is the humour of rage.

And he’s perfectly entitled to rage given what a shitshow Leavers of all stripes have wrought.

dixiedean said:

ydoethur said:

dixiedean said:

kle4 said:

Black_Rook said:

https://twitter.com/patrickwintour/status/1071114914125803520

If accurate, does not sound like report of a man getting ready to sing the praises of Remain, or attempt to re-run the referendum, or with any love for the EU in general.

It's just part of Labour's strategy - Corbyn talks up the need to respect the result but renegotiate while others play up the need for a referendum, while Starmer maneuvers the party into a position it can support remain from. Whether the party formally backs remain in a referendum or is officially neutral, they can all point to Corbyn's words as showing they wanted to leave but the Tories made it impossible through their ineptitude, while remainers get their opportunity to not leave at all and can look past that Corbyn himself did not seem keen on the prospect.

Worst case scenario Corbyn really would prefer to leave, but even then he's in with a decent chance of being PM off the back of all this, so he can live with it. The very fact so many remainers back Labour when its official policy is to leave speaks to the fact Corbyn has not been as firm in that leave position as people think, as a leader he is more cautious than he used to be.

Indeed. People do insist he's thick though.

I wonder if people are mistaking indecision and lethargy for strategy?

Perhaps. But managing to be on both sides of the most devisive split of our times, without either side figuring out which side he is on, is extremely fortunate.

Or an indication of self-serving cynicism worthy of a place in the grubbier reaches of the Tory party.

Beverley_C said:

numbertwelve said:

Beverley_C said:

I do not there will be a second referendum. It is simpler just to cancel Brexit assuming the CJEU lets us.

There will be an outcry no matter what happens.

The political class will not dare to cancel Brexit without the covering excuse of a referendum.

Of course they would. Look at all the excuses....

- Time is short
- Last time it took 7 months
- Nobody know what questions to use
- Nobody know how to phrase the questions
- Scheduling councils to count and get printing

It also has the advantage that cancelling guarantees the "correct" answer. The public might pick the wrong one to "stick it to the politicians" as happened last time (there was then the spectacle of Voter Remorse and the second petition with 4m signatures wanting a re-run

The politicians have all the cover they need.

16 million people voted Remain but only 4 million signed the petition calling for a rerun and you don't know that a single one had originally voted Leave. That is certainly not any evidence of voter remorse, just bad losers like yourself who are only interested in democracy when you get the answer you want.

ydoethur said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

He does have some interesting opinions on procedures but recently his posts have descended into insulting and attacking other posters, that causes me great concern as we should all be able to argue our opinions in a robust manner but with respect. His repeated references to my age group and dying off is unnecessary

He saddens me

Did he?

I always found his posts rather childish and lacking in intelligence (as well as having a crass username) so I tend to just ignore him. The infantile way he behaved when I did directly engage with him the other night didn't exactly suggest I was making a misjudgement.

I mean, there are some odd posters on here. There's SeanT who's never knowingly posted sober. Or Dura Ace with his obsession with Yorkshire Terriers (of which the less said the better). Or Hyufd and his inability to ever admit a mistake. However, all of these can be interesting, or at least, entertaining. Even Hyufd can sometimes be insightful.

But this one is something else. There really didn't seem to be anything redemptive about him at all.

rattled much?

Gardenwalker said:

I find Grabcoque very funny and assume some of what he posts to be satire, which after all is the humour of rage.

And he’s perfectly entitled to rage given what a shitshow Leavers of all stripes have wrought.

I see him as a youthful (?) exuberant version of tim.

TOPPING said:

Gardenwalker said:

I find Grabcoque very funny and assume some of what he posts to be satire, which after all is the humour of rage.

And he’s perfectly entitled to rage given what a shitshow Leavers of all stripes have wrought.

I see him as a youthful (?) exuberant version of tim.

Be fair. Tim could sometimes be interesting. Admittedly not usually when he was duelling with the late Plato, but you felt there was something there.

Donny43 said:

The_Taxman said:

numbertwelve said:

Beverley_C said:

I do not there will be a second referendum. It is simpler just to cancel Brexit assuming the CJEU lets us.

There will be an outcry no matter what happens.

The political class will not dare to cancel Brexit without the covering excuse of a referendum.

I am not so sure.

1/ If the first referendum was tainted by Russian money for Leave and its affiliated network of organisations and individuals, given the extreme implications for the UK, would HM Government really pursue policies a hostile power had manipulated in their interests? A second vote could be ripe for Russian exploitation again as a Brexit supporter today on BBC 2 said they still have the campaign infrastructure in place and the personnel.

2/ If credible, Independent political scientists will testify under oath to quantifiably assert that malevolent forces had stolen the referendum by subverting the rules through tainted money. Then again, a re-run is ill advised and MPs should take the hit and decide that being in the EU is least bad option.

Will they be more credible than the one splashed on one of the front papers yesterday whose claim relied on Facebook ads being seen by 80 million potential voters?

Just because you disagree with it does not mean it is not credible.

There is an obvious difference between 80 million voters and 80 million Facebook users. Facebook users might not be in the UK or able to vote in that election, it could in itself be reported in a partisan way by Brexit supporting media you cite yesterday. If the adverts were seen by 80 million Facebook users this does open the prospect of several million people being unduly influenced by material that breached electoral law. The way these people are targeted by algorithms could mean a single person is targeted multiple times. I find it strange that Russian interference in UK and US elections is glibly discounted.

williamglenn said:

https://twitter.com/realdonaldtrump/status/1071132880368132096?s=21

Dear heaven, every time you think he's reached rock bottom, out come the jackhammers.

Donny43 said:

Beverley_C said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Beverley_C said:

numbertwelve said:

Beverley_C said:

I do not there will be a second referendum. It is simpler just to cancel Brexit assuming the CJEU lets us.

There will be an outcry no matter what happens.

The political class will not dare to cancel Brexit without the covering excuse of a referendum.

Of course they would. Look at all the excuses....

- Time is short
- Last time it took 7 months
- Nobody know what questions to use
- Nobody know how to phrase the questions
- Scheduling councils to count and get printing

It also has the advantage that cancelling guarantees the "correct" answer. The public might pick the wrong one to "stick it to the politicians" as happened last time (there was then the spectacle of Voter Remorse and the second petition with 4m signatures wanting a re-run

The politicians have all the cover they need.

There was no evidence of voter remorse. Sore losers signing a petition is meaningless.

This would be the remorse that there is no evidence of.... "In the voting booth, Shaw finally made her choice: she voted leave. “To be quite frank, I did not believe it would happen,” she says. “I thought I’d put in a protest vote. The impact of my stupidity!” "

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/nov/25/protest-vote-regret-voting-leave-brexit

Ooh, an anecdote!

Any such people were more than outweighed by swing voters who believed the dire predictions about the impact of a vote to leave, all of which turned out to be wrong. They would be more difficult to convince the same way for a second time, and there's little evidence that a Remain campaign in a second referendum would have any better strategy.

***PEDANTRY ALERT*** They actually predicted the fall in the value of the pound. It's just practically everything else that they got wrong.

The main point stands, however. The push for continuity Remain (and that for May's deal, for that matter) is principally based on fear: those responsible have learned nothing. It fell short last time, and this time around Leave voters have the reasonably fresh memory of all those past failed predictions. Some of the new round of terror stories might actually transpire to have some basis in fact, but the crucial point is that few, if any, of the people they are directed toward will believe them, unless or until they come to pass. By that point, of course, we would already have left.

Richard_Tyndall said:

The_Taxman said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

The_Taxman said:

The Tories are going to take a short-term hit whatever happens. MP expenses was even worse for politicians and political parties IMO. These things come and go. I think the population will be more exercised if medication and the NHS care they receive noticeably gets worse because of a Hard Brexit.

It is not the Tories I am concerned about. They can fall apart and I would shed no tears. It is basic faith in democracy that you will destroy. Why bother voting if they will just ignore you? That is the question that will be pushed at the public incessantly going forward. MPs expenses will be a walk in the park by comparison

I don't think you have ever canvassed opinion for a political party. Believe me MP expenses was far far worse! People forget, personally I don't care what happens to any political party. The main two will always survive. Political parties in government always lose support, it is part of the political cycle. So, in this case the Tories need to take a hit and cancel Brexit for the interests of the country.

I am not sure what Ivory Tower you are sitting in but actually out on the street there is already genuine and deep seated anger at the whole of Parliament over even the suggestion they might abandon Brexit. You really are in for a very nasty shock and to be honest you will deserve it.

Correction

Out on the street people are wondering if it's finally Lauren's turn to get the boot on Strictly.

No one understands, still less cares what "The Deal" is all about.

That said, if there were another referendum without due process then that I believe would rouse the giant. But only to go out and buy more "whoever you vote for the government always gets in" t-shirts.

TOPPING said:

Gardenwalker said:

I find Grabcoque very funny and assume some of what he posts to be satire, which after all is the humour of rage.

And he’s perfectly entitled to rage given what a shitshow Leavers of all stripes have wrought.

I see him as a youthful (?) exuberant version of tim.

Did Tim ever have a fight with John Prescott though ?

Black_Rook said:

Donny43 said:

Beverley_C said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Beverley_C said:

numbertwelve said:

Beverley_C said:

I do not there will be a second referendum. It is simpler just to cancel Brexit assuming the CJEU lets us.

There will be an outcry no matter what happens.

The political class will not dare to cancel Brexit without the covering excuse of a referendum.

Of course they would. Look at all the excuses....

- Time is short
- Last time it took 7 months
- Nobody know what questions to use
- Nobody know how to phrase the questions
- Scheduling councils to count and get printing

It also has the advantage that cancelling guarantees the "correct" answer. The public might pick the wrong one to "stick it to the politicians" as happened last time (there was then the spectacle of Voter Remorse and the second petition with 4m signatures wanting a re-run

The politicians have all the cover they need.

There was no evidence of voter remorse. Sore losers signing a petition is meaningless.

This would be the remorse that there is no evidence of.... "In the voting booth, Shaw finally made her choice: she voted leave. “To be quite frank, I did not believe it would happen,” she says. “I thought I’d put in a protest vote. The impact of my stupidity!” "

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/nov/25/protest-vote-regret-voting-leave-brexit

Ooh, an anecdote!

Any such people were more than outweighed by swing voters who believed the dire predictions about the impact of a vote to leave, all of which turned out to be wrong. They would be more difficult to convince the same way for a second time, and there's little evidence that a Remain campaign in a second referendum would have any better strategy.

***PEDANTRY ALERT*** They actually predicted the fall in the value of the pound. It's just practically everything else that they got wrong.

The main point stands, however. The push for continuity Remain (and that for May's deal, for that matter) is principally based on fear: those responsible have learned nothing. It fell short last time, and this time around Leave voters have the reasonably fresh memory of all those past failed predictions. Some of the new round of terror stories might actually transpire to have some basis in fact, but the crucial point is that few, if any, of the people they are directed toward will believe them, unless or until they come to pass. By that point, of course, we would already have left.

Over on Speccie Coffeehouse they are making this point with an article saying MP's have gone to their constituencies and are shocked, shocked I tell ya, that people do not believe project fear mark II.

Richard_Tyndall said:

The_Taxman said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

The_Taxman said:

The Tories are going to take a short-term hit whatever happens. MP expenses was even worse for politicians and political parties IMO. These things come and go. I think the population will be more exercised if medication and the NHS care they receive noticeably gets worse because of a Hard Brexit.

It is not the Tories I am concerned about. They can fall apart and I would shed no tears. It is basic faith in democracy that you will destroy. Why bother voting if they will just ignore you? That is the question that will be pushed at the public incessantly going forward. MPs expenses will be a walk in the park by comparison

I don't think you have ever canvassed opinion for a political party. Believe me MP expenses was far far worse! People forget, personally I don't care what happens to any political party. The main two will always survive. Political parties in government always lose support, it is part of the political cycle. So, in this case the Tories need to take a hit and cancel Brexit for the interests of the country.

I am not sure what Ivory Tower you are sitting in but actually out on the street there is already genuine and deep seated anger at the whole of Parliament over even the suggestion they might abandon Brexit. You really are in for a very nasty shock and to be honest you will deserve it.

The shock I am worried about is Hard Brexit.

Don't wish harm on others, I suggest you evaluate your contribution before posting and the value that your comments derive to this site. what incite do you provide by the above comment. You don't canvass for political parties, you have your strong opinions but you are in no better place than I am to say what the whole population think.

Beverley_C said:

This would be the remorse that there is no evidence of.... "In the voting booth, Shaw finally made her choice: she voted leave. “To be quite frank, I did not believe it would happen,” she says. “I thought I’d put in a protest vote. The impact of my stupidity!” "

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/nov/25/protest-vote-regret-voting-leave-brexit

Or it's a garbage story posted about and by a remainer.

Black_Rook said:

ydoethur said:

Donny43 said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

The_Taxman said:

The Tories are going to take a short-term hit whatever happens. MP expenses was even worse for politicians and political parties IMO. These things come and go. I think the population will be more exercised if medication and the NHS care they receive noticeably gets worse because of a Hard Brexit.

It is not the Tories I am concerned about. They can fall apart and I would shed no tears. It is basic faith in democracy that you will destroy. Why bother voting if they will just ignore you? That is the question that will be pushed at the public incessantly going forward. MPs expenses will be a walk in the park by comparison

A large number of people who had given up voting because "it doesn't change anything" voted in the referendum.

It astounds me that people can't see what will happen if they get proved right.

Ultimately this whole shambles is essentially a failure of Parliament. It has persistently abrogated its own responsibility by laying blame for unpopular decisions on Europe, it has refused to listen to reasonable concerns about the EU project, and it is now squabbling over which unavailable option they would prefer with all the fervour of two eunuchs trying to hide their shortcomings fighting over a packet of condoms.

There is, sadly, no block prepared to accept that with Remain not an option and No Deal the default, it is necessary to accept what the EU have given us even if it isn't what they personally would have wanted.

The only cold comfort on offer is that there is no political system on earth functioning noticeably better at the moment.

The Deal is also not an option. If by some miracle May got it to pass then the DUP would withdraw support and the Government would fall the following day. A General Election then follows, which in all likelihood would produce a Parliament almost identical to the current one. That's what the evidence of the previous election, and of the current state of public opinion, and of the opinion polls all suggests.

And all the while, tick tock tick tock, and Leave is still the law.

Whilst I don't disagree with you about the way things would probably go in the short term if the deal were passed, it would however mean that one more hurdle - the meaningful vote - had been passed. If Parliament returned to a broadly similar makeup after an election then there would presumably be nothing to stop the new PM going and signing the Deal if they were so minded.

Admittedly it would then have to be agreed by the Commons but that is a process that is very clearly limited in its scope. They cannot amend, only accept or refuse.

Richard_Tyndall said:

The_Taxman said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

The_Taxman said:

The Tories are going to take a short-term hit whatever happens. MP expenses was even worse for politicians and political parties IMO. These things come and go. I think the population will be more exercised if medication and the NHS care they receive noticeably gets worse because of a Hard Brexit.

It is not the Tories I am concerned about. They can fall apart and I would shed no tears. It is basic faith in democracy that you will destroy. Why bother voting if they will just ignore you? That is the question that will be pushed at the public incessantly going forward. MPs expenses will be a walk in the park by comparison

I don't think you have ever canvassed opinion for a political party. Believe me MP expenses was far far worse! People forget, personally I don't care what happens to any political party. The main two will always survive. Political parties in government always lose support, it is part of the political cycle. So, in this case the Tories need to take a hit and cancel Brexit for the interests of the country.

I am not sure what Ivory Tower you are sitting in but actually out on the street there is already genuine and deep seated anger at the whole of Parliament over even the suggestion they might abandon Brexit. You really are in for a very nasty shock and to be honest you will deserve it.

Is there really? I haven't seen it. I live in a strongly leave orientated area - 63% leave - and I have seen nothing that suggests anyone is angry.

Recidivist said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

The_Taxman said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

The_Taxman said:

The Tories are going to take a short-term hit whatever happens. MP expenses was even worse for politicians and political parties IMO. These things come and go. I think the population will be more exercised if medication and the NHS care they receive noticeably gets worse because of a Hard Brexit.

It is not the Tories I am concerned about. They can fall apart and I would shed no tears. It is basic faith in democracy that you will destroy. Why bother voting if they will just ignore you? That is the question that will be pushed at the public incessantly going forward. MPs expenses will be a walk in the park by comparison

I don't think you have ever canvassed opinion for a political party. Believe me MP expenses was far far worse! People forget, personally I don't care what happens to any political party. The main two will always survive. Political parties in government always lose support, it is part of the political cycle. So, in this case the Tories need to take a hit and cancel Brexit for the interests of the country.

I am not sure what Ivory Tower you are sitting in but actually out on the street there is already genuine and deep seated anger at the whole of Parliament over even the suggestion they might abandon Brexit. You really are in for a very nasty shock and to be honest you will deserve it.

Is there really? I haven't seen it. I live in a strongly leave orientated area - 63% leave - and I have seen nothing that suggests anyone is angry.

Likewise. People are getting weary at the whole thing and wish it were sorted; the stock of leading leavers has fallen considerably as many people blame them for all the goings on.

Black_Rook said:

Donny43 said:

Beverley_C said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Beverley_C said:

numbertwelve said:

Beverley_C said:

I do not there will be a second referendum. It is simpler just to cancel Brexit assuming the CJEU lets us.

There will be an outcry no matter what happens.

The political class will not dare to cancel Brexit without the covering excuse of a referendum.

Of course they would. Look at all the excuses....

- Time is short
- Last time it took 7 months
- Nobody know what questions to use
- Nobody know how to phrase the questions
- Scheduling councils to count and get printing

It also has the advantage that cancelling guarantees the "correct" answer. The public might pick the wrong one to "stick it to the politicians" as happened last time (there was then the spectacle of Voter Remorse and the second petition with 4m signatures wanting a re-run

The politicians have all the cover they need.

There was no evidence of voter remorse. Sore losers signing a petition is meaningless.

This would be the remorse that there is no evidence of.... "In the voting booth, Shaw finally made her choice: she voted leave. “To be quite frank, I did not believe it would happen,” she says. “I thought I’d put in a protest vote. The impact of my stupidity!” "

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/nov/25/protest-vote-regret-voting-leave-brexit

Ooh, an anecdote!

Any such people were more than outweighed by swing voters who believed the dire predictions about the impact of a vote to leave, all of which turned out to be wrong. They would be more difficult to convince the same way for a second time, and there's little evidence that a Remain campaign in a second referendum would have any better strategy.

***PEDANTRY ALERT*** They actually predicted the fall in the value of the pound. It's just practically everything else that they got wrong.

Granted.

The_Taxman said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

The_Taxman said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

The_Taxman said:

The Tories are going to take a short-term hit whatever happens. MP expenses was even worse for politicians and political parties IMO. These things come and go. I think the population will be more exercised if medication and the NHS care they receive noticeably gets worse because of a Hard Brexit.

It is not the Tories I am concerned about. They can fall apart and I would shed no tears. It is basic faith in democracy that you will destroy. Why bother voting if they will just ignore you? That is the question that will be pushed at the public incessantly going forward. MPs expenses will be a walk in the park by comparison

I don't think you have ever canvassed opinion for a political party. Believe me MP expenses was far far worse! People forget, personally I don't care what happens to any political party. The main two will always survive. Political parties in government always lose support, it is part of the political cycle. So, in this case the Tories need to take a hit and cancel Brexit for the interests of the country.

I am not sure what Ivory Tower you are sitting in but actually out on the street there is already genuine and deep seated anger at the whole of Parliament over even the suggestion they might abandon Brexit. You really are in for a very nasty shock and to be honest you will deserve it.

The shock I am worried about is Hard Brexit.

Don't wish harm on others, I suggest you evaluate your contribution before posting and the value that your comments derive to this site. what incite do you provide by the above comment. You don't canvass for political parties, you have your strong opinions but you are in no better place than I am to say what the whole population think.

If the only place you think you get any idea of what people are thinking is button holing them on the doorstep then I am not surprised you have a very warped view of what the population think.

The_Taxman said:

Donny43 said:

The_Taxman said:

numbertwelve said:

Beverley_C said:

I do not there will be a second referendum. It is simpler just to cancel Brexit assuming the CJEU lets us.

There will be an outcry no matter what happens.

The political class will not dare to cancel Brexit without the covering excuse of a referendum.

I am not so sure.

1/ If the first referendum was tainted by Russian money for Leave and its affiliated network of organisations and individuals, given the extreme implications for the UK, would HM Government really pursue policies a hostile power had manipulated in their interests? A second vote could be ripe for Russian exploitation again as a Brexit supporter today on BBC 2 said they still have the campaign infrastructure in place and the personnel.

2/ If credible, Independent political scientists will testify under oath to quantifiably assert that malevolent forces had stolen the referendum by subverting the rules through tainted money. Then again, a re-run is ill advised and MPs should take the hit and decide that being in the EU is least bad option.

Will they be more credible than the one splashed on one of the front papers yesterday whose claim relied on Facebook ads being seen by 80 million potential voters?

Just because you disagree with it does not mean it is not credible.

There is an obvious difference between 80 million voters and 80 million Facebook users. Facebook users might not be in the UK or able to vote in that election, it could in itself be reported in a partisan way by Brexit supporting media you cite yesterday. If the adverts were seen by 80 million Facebook users this does open the prospect of several million people being unduly influenced by material that breached electoral law. The way these people are targeted by algorithms could mean a single person is targeted multiple times. I find it strange that Russian interference in UK and US elections is glibly discounted.

You must have missed the rather comprehensive demolition of the FB story by a whole range of political scientists the other day. It really is a joke.

PB.com is not the real world. It's barely in the solar system. At least after Brexit/Remain, we can get back to arguing about who's got the most BA platinum airmiles or something.

Donny43 said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

The_Taxman said:

The Tories are going to take a short-term hit whatever happens. MP expenses was even worse for politicians and political parties IMO. These things come and go. I think the population will be more exercised if medication and the NHS care they receive noticeably gets worse because of a Hard Brexit.

It is not the Tories I am concerned about. They can fall apart and I would shed no tears. It is basic faith in democracy that you will destroy. Why bother voting if they will just ignore you? That is the question that will be pushed at the public incessantly going forward. MPs expenses will be a walk in the park by comparison

A large number of people who had given up voting because "it doesn't change anything" voted in the referendum.

It astounds me that people can't see what will happen if they get proved right.

I know some like that, indeed some who had never voted until the referendum. Despite saying they would not vote again they then ended up voting at the 2017 GE. At least one is utterly furious that we might not leave at all. Their first target of anger is the EU, who they think were never going to let us leave and have only cared about punishing us. Next they are angry at parliament for trying to keep us in, believing they never had any intention at all of leaving.

So far, so anecdotal, what will it mean when we, as I expect, remain? I think they'll be bloody furious and never vote again. Why would they not? Every party would be complicit in keeping us in, and the siren song of UKIP never motivated them previously. And what point voting in a referendum again?

But would there be more serious affects from reversing the decision? I think many remainers are incredibly reckless in expecting no real problems, because that is what they want to be true, but on the other hand I don't know that there will be quite the outpouring of outrage some expect. A lot of it, yes, but enough to paralyse things?

The reason we are ending up remaining is leave has splintered and even prominent leave campaigners are rejecting the easiest route to leave that is on offer, and the other routes are uncertain or being blocked off as a result, while remainers are growing in strength. Leavers are more fractured, and are weaker as a result. Some will give up. Having been shown that the first vote was pointless I think electoral consequences will be limited to not turning out, rather than voting out those who caused the turnaround.

The_Taxman said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

The_Taxman said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

The_Taxman said:

The Tories are going to take a short-term hit whatever happens. MP expenses was even worse for politicians and political parties IMO. These things come and go. I think the population will be more exercised if medication and the NHS care they receive noticeably gets worse because of a Hard Brexit.

It is not the Tories I am concerned about. They can fall apart and I would shed no tears. It is basic faith in democracy that you will destroy. Why bother voting if they will just ignore you? That is the question that will be pushed at the public incessantly going forward. MPs expenses will be a walk in the park by comparison

I don't think you have ever canvassed opinion for a political party. Believe me MP expenses was far far worse! People forget, personally I don't care what happens to any political party. The main two will always survive. Political parties in government always lose support, it is part of the political cycle. So, in this case the Tories need to take a hit and cancel Brexit for the interests of the country.

I am not sure what Ivory Tower you are sitting in but actually out on the street there is already genuine and deep seated anger at the whole of Parliament over even the suggestion they might abandon Brexit. You really are in for a very nasty shock and to be honest you will deserve it.

The shock I am worried about is Hard Brexit.

Don't wish harm on others, I suggest you evaluate your contribution before posting and the value that your comments derive to this site. what incite do you provide by the above comment. You don't canvass for political parties, you have your strong opinions but you are in no better place than I am to say what the whole population think.

Hmm. Just like your very stupid statement the other day about me having called those who opposed hard Brexit traitors, you have yet again showed that you don't actually read what anyone writes on here. You just make an assumption and then dive right on in without any basis in fact.

I do not advocate Hard Brexit. I may not fear it as much as others but I am firmly behind the Deal as it stands. This has been a consistent position in favour of a soft Brexit since before the referendum. I even have money bet on it (which unfortunately I think I will lose)

I suggest you do a bit of real research before commenting on here again. It might help prevent you making quite such a fool of yourself.

kle4 said:

twistedfirestopper3 said:

PB.com is not the real world. It's barely in the solar system. At least after Brexit/Remain, we can get back to arguing about who's got the most BA platinum airmiles or something.

What are platinum airmiles? (I need to buff up my man of the people credentials)

If you have to ask, then you're not in the gang.

Recidivist said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

The_Taxman said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

The_Taxman said:

The Tories are going to take a short-term hit whatever happens. MP expenses was even worse for politicians and political parties IMO. These things come and go. I think the population will be more exercised if medication and the NHS care they receive noticeably gets worse because of a Hard Brexit.

It is not the Tories I am concerned about. They can fall apart and I would shed no tears. It is basic faith in democracy that you will destroy. Why bother voting if they will just ignore you? That is the question that will be pushed at the public incessantly going forward. MPs expenses will be a walk in the park by comparison

I don't think you have ever canvassed opinion for a political party. Believe me MP expenses was far far worse! People forget, personally I don't care what happens to any political party. The main two will always survive. Political parties in government always lose support, it is part of the political cycle. So, in this case the Tories need to take a hit and cancel Brexit for the interests of the country.

I am not sure what Ivory Tower you are sitting in but actually out on the street there is already genuine and deep seated anger at the whole of Parliament over even the suggestion they might abandon Brexit. You really are in for a very nasty shock and to be honest you will deserve it.

Is there really? I haven't seen it. I live in a strongly leave orientated area - 63% leave - and I have seen nothing that suggests anyone is angry.

To be fair I do live in Lincolnshire and as you saw the other day they all want Hard Brexit here. I am a Europhile federalist compared to most people round here.

Donny43 said:

williamglenn said:

Donny43 said:

TOPPING said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

TOPPING said:

Verulamius said:

Would Norway veto a Norway + deal?

Good point if I were Norway I'd want to switch to "plus".

No you wouldn't. Norway certainly don't want it. They know very well they are far better off outside the customs union where they have some real influence on world affairs unlike ourselves.

Frankly I have no idea what Norway Plus entails. It is a faller at the first, sadly, on account of FoM and any number of other issues, not least the time available to negotiate it.

FoM is only an obstacle as long as May is PM. Time, I will grant you, is a big problem.

FoM is an obstacle for as long as the objective is to deliver a referendum won on ending free movement. If you want Norway or Remain, you need a second referendum.

You are far from alone in making the error of thinking that was the only thing Leave voters wanted.

Although it’s true that there were other factors (I was wavering because of the democratic deficit and felt that our parliament should have greater control (admittedly having reviewed the performance of our parliament over recent days Im not sure this is necessarily a good thing)) but it’s surely undeniable that the only reason leave won, and by far the biggest factor, was immigration.

Donny43 said:

williamglenn said:

Donny43 said:

TOPPING said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

TOPPING said:

Verulamius said:

Would Norway veto a Norway + deal?

Good point if I were Norway I'd want to switch to "plus".

No you wouldn't. Norway certainly don't want it. They know very well they are far better off outside the customs union where they have some real influence on world affairs unlike ourselves.

Frankly I have no idea what Norway Plus entails. It is a faller at the first, sadly, on account of FoM and any number of other issues, not least the time available to negotiate it.

FoM is only an obstacle as long as May is PM. Time, I will grant you, is a big problem.

FoM is an obstacle for as long as the objective is to deliver a referendum won on ending free movement. If you want Norway or Remain, you need a second referendum.

You are far from alone in making the error of thinking that was the only thing Leave voters wanted.

I don’t think it’s the only thing, but without it they wouldn’t have got 52% in a month of Sundays.

grabcocque said:

kle4 said:

twistedfirestopper3 said:

PB.com is not the real world. It's barely in the solar system. At least after Brexit/Remain, we can get back to arguing about who's got the most BA platinum airmiles or something.

What are platinum airmiles? (I need to buff up my man of the people credentials)

I think they're called Avios now.

#liberalelite

Avios are for the little people who don't get invitation only platinum airmiles.

Hooray... Few more days and were done with brexit...

What a lovely thought....

grabcocque said:

Theresa May has tried to bring xenophobia to a sovereignty fight. No wonder the backstop has screwed her up so royally.

The DUP, ERG don't care about FoM, but they care about that godforsaken backstop. A LOT.

FoM is the big one for the sorts of brexiters that don't make it on to the airwaves and media. The high profile brexiters that write the columns in papers and so forth, and unfortunately for her her backbench couldn't give a monkeys about it.

NickPalmer said:

grabcocque said:

I'm not actually disagreeing with you about what he wants - I just think the government's position has been weaker than he expected, and as such parliament as a whole is shifting toward options which neither the government nor Corbyn actually want.

And certainly a referendum is not in the gift of the government, it still requires some big changes in position, but there are plausible reasons the government, or a government might consider a referendum.

Big difference is, I think May cares deeply, she needs her Brexit deal to cement her anti-immigrant vindictiveness, Corbyn really isn't that bothered.

I agree he's not that bothered. I'm always puzzled by thought-readers here who are convinced that on this one issue he's lying when he says he's mildly in favour now. He cheerfully admits all kinds of controversial views and doesn't change them when they get him into trouble - it's one reason I like him.

He told me directly that he was voting Remain - he wasn't a big fan of the EU and used to be opposed but at this stage we'd been members too long to make it sensible to withdraw, and there were more left-wing allies on the Continent than there used to be. I've had that confirmed by others who know him well, and it also matches his "7 out of 10" comment. But people who've never met him think they know better.

That said, as you say, he's not that fussed, and he thinks close association would be OK too. Nor does he feel strongly about the idea of a referendum - it's a second-order issue for him, and if McDonnell (who is keen, and has just contradicted Len McCluskey on it) and the party want it, fine.

Leaving and no longer being subject to EU rules on state aid etc would make it much easier for him and McDonnell to implement their programme. Surely that would have a big impact on his preference?

I feel really sorry for people who haven't accepted Brexit. The hope provided by May's incompetent negotiation is torture for them. They can't accept and move on. Someone on here actually said they had not been happy since the date of the ref.

grabcocque said:

Theresa May is strategically inept, tactically misguided, presentationally catastrophic, and promoting a deal with nothing to recommend it, but apart from that she's doing terribly well

http://www.politics.co.uk/blogs/2018/12/07/week-in-review-all-may-s-faults-come-home-to-roost

Reckon our Theresa has Mr Dunt down as a maybe.

https://www.businessinsider.com/former-secretary-said-trump-frequently-wanted-to-violate-us-law-2018-12?r=US&IR=T

Trump is only responding in kind.

williamglenn said:

https://twitter.com/realdonaldtrump/status/1071132880368132096?s=21

grabcocque said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

I feel really sorry for people who haven't accepted Brexit. The hope provided by May's incompetent negotiation is torture for them. They can't accept and move on. Someone on here actually said they had not been happy since the date of the ref.

May has proved truly unique in her ability to please none of the people, none of the time.

That's because (in my opinion) she's carrying out a deliberately disastrous Brexit in the hope of reversing it. Shit election and all. Actually an incredible act of self sacrifice (if you agree with her).

grabcocque said:

Theresa May has tried to bring xenophobia to a sovereignty fight. No wonder the backstop has screwed her up so royally.

The DUP, ERG don't care about FoM, but they care about that godforsaken backstop. A LOT.

Me too.

Only a xenophobic migration-obsessive could think that after a campaign about "take back control" it was a great, fantastic idea to outsource our regulations to the EU in the backstop after we've left. That's worse than what we started with! There's nothing taking back control about the backstop . . . nor should there be anything surprising to anyone with a modicum of sense that those leaver who prioritise sovereignty over xenophobia would find this deal abhorrent.

It's not as if she's spent the last two years laying the groundwork for this humiliation. Only only needs to think of two things combined. For months she was saying "no Prime Minister could agree to the backstop", before that she spent months saying "no deal is better than a bad deal".

She may be a compulsive liar but I'll take her almost at her word. The backstop is bad which is why he was pretending she wouldn't agree to it until she did. And no deal is better than a bad deal. End of story.

Luckyguy1983 said:

grabcocque said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

I feel really sorry for people who haven't accepted Brexit. The hope provided by May's incompetent negotiation is torture for them. They can't accept and move on. Someone on here actually said they had not been happy since the date of the ref.

May has proved truly unique in her ability to please none of the people, none of the time.

That's because (in my opinion) she's carrying out a deliberately disastrous Brexit in the hope of reversing it. Shit election and all. Actually an incredible act of self sacrifice (if you agree with her).

What do you think a good Brexit would look like?

williamglenn said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

grabcocque said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

I feel really sorry for people who haven't accepted Brexit. The hope provided by May's incompetent negotiation is torture for them. They can't accept and move on. Someone on here actually said they had not been happy since the date of the ref.

May has proved truly unique in her ability to please none of the people, none of the time.

That's because (in my opinion) she's carrying out a deliberately disastrous Brexit in the hope of reversing it. Shit election and all. Actually an incredible act of self sacrifice (if you agree with her).

What do you think a good Brexit would look like?

Hash browns, mushrooms and sausages with scrambled eggs and brown toast.

Oh sorry, you said Brexit.

Philip_Thompson said:

grabcocque said:

Theresa May has tried to bring xenophobia to a sovereignty fight. No wonder the backstop has screwed her up so royally.

The DUP, ERG don't care about FoM, but they care about that godforsaken backstop. A LOT.

Me too.

Only a xenophobic migration-obsessive could think that after a campaign about "take back control" it was a great, fantastic idea to outsource our regulations to the EU in the backstop after we've left. That's worse than what we started with! There's nothing taking back control about the backstop . . . nor should there be anything surprising to anyone with a modicum of sense that those leaver who prioritise sovereignty over xenophobia would find this deal abhorrent.

It's not as if she's spent the last two years laying the groundwork for this humiliation. Only only needs to think of two things combined. For months she was saying "no Prime Minister could agree to the backstop", before that she spent months saying "no deal is better than a bad deal".

She may be a compulsive liar but I'll take her almost at her word. The backstop is bad which is why he was pretending she wouldn't agree to it until she did. And no deal is better than a bad deal. End of story.

No deal would be brilliant. The sheer astonishment (and let's face it, disappointment in many quarters) that the sky hadn't fallen in would be palpable.

Luckyguy1983 said:

grabcocque said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

I feel really sorry for people who haven't accepted Brexit. The hope provided by May's incompetent negotiation is torture for them. They can't accept and move on. Someone on here actually said they had not been happy since the date of the ref.

May has proved truly unique in her ability to please none of the people, none of the time.

That's because (in my opinion) she's carrying out a deliberately disastrous Brexit in the hope of reversing it. Shit election and all. Actually an incredible act of self sacrifice (if you agree with her).

In which case she is a tactical genius and we underestimate her at our peril.