In addition I don't think the backstop is any where near as onerous or likely as people make out. The EU really, really don't want us in a CU for free for any length of time and the technological systems being suggested under Smart Border 2 by the EU would render the whole issue moot pretty quickly. The only issue with them has ben the length of time they will take to implement. Well now we have another 2 years of the transition so that is certainly enough time to get the system in place.
Hold on!!! Take away the bogeyman of an EU army in blue and gold uniforms, with new recruits swearing fealty to Jean-Claude Juncker and receiving EUR10 on acceptance, and where does that leave the mad frothing armchair eurosceptic generals?
I shall watch them fighting the Russians in Ukraine with great interest and much armchair.
I wouldn't set aside more than 20 minutess. The full half-hour tops.
It doesn't matter what the public want. We're told they want to remain, that they want a referendum and will vote remain in it, others say no deal or may's deal would win in that referendum, that everyone wants to renegotiate etc etc.
The only thing that matters is what MPs claim to believe the people want, and they have maneuvered themselves into a position where a referendum is a very likely outcome, since if they insist the people do not want no deal or deal, there are few alternatives left.
If Westminster decides to can Brexit, it is going to be a glorious time subseuently to be a Brexiteer, as EVERYTHING that goes wrong in the UK gets blamed on the Remainers.
It will be great sport, hounding each and every one of them from office....
In the scenario I'm outlining, they can have what they voted for. They just need to overrule the ERG loons and vote in a referendum to confirm that we are leaving on the terms available. If they do that, they get:
- An end to Freedom of Movement - An end to the ECJ having direct jurisdiction over UK law - An end to the CFP - An end to the CAP - An end to paying vast sums to the EU - A smooth transition, protecting jobs - Joining a free trade area from Ireland to Turkey
All as promised by Vote Leave. No Deal, in contrast, is certainly nothing like compatible with the promises made by the Leave campaigns, who assured us again and again that it would be a smooth transition, no jobs would be lost, there would be no difficulties with customs, and the EU would sign a trade deal with us.
In any case, it's not me you need to convince. It's MPs. I'm just looking at the parliamentary numbers.
In addition I don't think the backstop is any where near as onerous or likely as people make out. The EU really, really don't want us in a CU for free for any length of time and the technological systems being suggested under Smart Border 2 by the EU would render the whole issue moot pretty quickly. The only issue with them has ben the length of time they will take to implement. Well now we have another 2 years of the transition so that is certainly enough time to get the system in place.
technological solutions will *never* apply on the Irish border itself
Existing cameras on the border aren't technological solutions ?
At this point, the remaining time on May's premiership is being measured in hours.
If she really does believe that her deal must pass, all else be damned, then she has nothing to lose from proposing the referendum. Yes, her party will VONC her so hard her eyes will bleed, but at least there's a chance for he deal to happen.
Not a big chance, mind. But a chance.
And still not certain ERG vnoc would win. There are only 100 max who are likely to vnoc in her
If she proposes a referendum, her party will dump her like a shot. But if she considers her deal to be more important than her job, she should risk it.
It's now out of control of the government and the Conservative Party.
I wonder what the majority of MPs who want to remain will vote to happen.
For a second referendum. The ERG have given them democratic cover to no longer respect the first referendum result.
Yep. Fair enough, if they can recognise that if they think this deal is worse than remaining that it is legitimate for people to suggest that, even though the ERG themselves would prefer an alternative leave.
'Why the idea of a united Ireland is back in play'
NI has become an economic basket case, all in the name of 'The Union'. It's cruel and unusual punishment for what was once one of the jewels in Britain's crown. Time to let it go to its natural home. I think there's reasonable ground to believe that if the question were put to the Irish on both sides of the border, there would be a positive response. As an added incentive, we'll throw in Pembrokeshire.
The Republic wouldn't want NI - too expensive, too much trouble.
And less of the 'give away Pembrokeshire'. It's a jewel, and I have plans to move there.
If Westminster decides to can Brexit, it is going to be a glorious time subseuently to be a Brexiteer, as EVERYTHING that goes wrong in the UK gets blamed on the Remainers.
It will be great sport, hounding each and every one of them from office....
Most of them will not be affected. Some areas are very pro remain and people will be too ecstatic to care.
If Westminster decides to can Brexit, it is going to be a glorious time subseuently to be a Brexiteer, as EVERYTHING that goes wrong in the UK gets blamed on the Remainers.
It will be great sport, hounding each and every one of them from office....
Westminster will morph into Holyrood - every issue will be a Brussels flavoured grievance with the EU to blame.
Every penny transferred, every penny squandered, every fat cat lunch.
In the scenario I'm outlining, they can have what they voted for. They just need to overrule the ERG loons and vote in a referendum to confirm that we are leaving on the terms available. If they do that, they get:
- An end to Freedom of Movement - An end to the ECJ having direct jurisdiction over UK law - An end to the CFP - An end to the CAP - An end to paying vast sums to the EU - A smooth transition, protecting jobs - Joining a free trade area from Ireland to Turkey
All as promised by Vote Leave. No Deal, in contrast, is certainly nothing like compatible with the promises made by the Leave campaigns, who assured us again and again that it would be a smooth transition, no jobs would be lost, there would be no difficulties with customs, and the EU would sign a trade deal with us.
In any case, it's not me you need to convince. It's MPs. I'm just looking at the parliamentary numbers.
In addition I don't think the backstop is any where near as onerous or likely as people make out. The EU really, really don't want us in a CU for free for any length of time and the technological systems being suggested under Smart Border 2 by the EU would render the whole issue moot pretty quickly. The only issue with them has ben the length of time they will take to implement. Well now we have another 2 years of the transition so that is certainly enough time to get the system in place.
technological solutions will *never* apply on the Irish border itself
Existing cameras on the border aren't technological solutions ?
Lolza.
"Technological solutions" doesn't just mean cameras on the border. It means imposing an administrative overhead on businesses to make the information the cameras gather useful, and it means an enforcement mechanism to handle those who ignore the system. It will never happen.
"Cameras are currently in use on the border and checks on food standards for exports occur at factories. Customs officers and police monitor cross-border activity to counter the smuggling of people and goods. Cross-border differences in VAT and excise duties make it lucrative to smuggle fuel and tobacco. In the past, the scale of fuel smuggling was large enough to endanger the very survival of legitimate fuel retailers in Northern Ireland. As a result, measures were taken to increase the numbers of customs officials monitoring smuggling.
It is not widely known that garda (Irish police officers) routinely remove people from cross-border buses, and those removed appear mainly to be non-white. The rumour in Belfast is that bus-drivers are paid by the southern authorities to provide information on suspicious passengers. Some of this may reflect the requirements of UN resolution 1373 but more likely are the prevention of illegal immigration and smuggling."
If Westminster decides to can Brexit, it is going to be a glorious time subseuently to be a Brexiteer, as EVERYTHING that goes wrong in the UK gets blamed on the Remainers.
It will be great sport, hounding each and every one of them from office....
Westminster will morph into Holyrood - every issue will be a Brussels flavoured grievance with the EU to blame.
Every penny transferred, every penny squandered, every fat cat lunch.
The EU will be the pariah it is now but cubed.
No no, when re remain there will be no problems ever again, the not at all just as vague campaign is assuring us one way is sanity and the other insanity, so how could restoring sanity lead to any issues?
I entirely agree that the bulk of the Commons would love to cancel Brexit. Indeed, the more realistic ones amongst them will be thinking that the way to go is not through a referendum (which they are likely to lose, and then what?) but through forming a National Government, revoking A50 on their own authority, and then submitting themselves to the judgement of the electorate once the job is done.
If they are that convinced that Brexit is a catastrophe, and they REALLY do believe that it's in the national interest to do it, then that's what MPs would do. It would be brave and it would be responsible.
However, this doesn't get around the fact that (a) the pro-EU MPs would have to split from their own parties, abandon decades of loyalty, and fight their ex-colleagues and party rank-and-file to the political death in the General Election that would inevitably follow; and (b) that your typical MP isn't brave and responsible, they're duplicitous and calculating.
Also, whilst I've no particular interest in defending the ERG, I don't subscribe to the notion that all of this is the Brexiteers' fault. The pro-EU MPs - or, more precisely, the large bulk of them that also sat in the previous Parliament and voted for the EU Referendum Bill to pass - are ultimately responsible for their own predicament. If they really thought Brexit a catastrophe, and if they had any comprehension of how differently the EU was viewed in the country at large, outside their own narrow social circle, then they ought to have done what the SNP did and refused to vote for the referendum to take place. Instead, they legislated for a plebiscite which included an option that they stupidly assumed most people would not vote for, and which they had no desire (and probably, in truth, no intention) to implement.
They fashioned the rod for their own backs. I have no sympathy for them at all.
I think what you are missing is that a large number of MPs don't think Brexit is a catastrophe (although many of them think it's a mistake), they think that No Deal is a catastrophe. Big difference. Their reasoning will be: Of the three options, Revoke is unfortunate starting from here (because of the democratic legitimacy argument), Deal is unattractive but can be lived with in order to respect the referendum result, and No Deal is an unmitigated disaster. If the deal can't be approved by parliament because of an unholy alliance between the Ultras, the LibDems, the SNP and the cynical Labour Party, pragmatists are forced into trying to find a way to engineer things to avoid the unmitigated disaster, and a referendum is the face-saving way of doing that which might get through parliament.
Agreed - but I think it will have to include both no deal and remain as options.
In the scenario I'm outlining, they can have what they voted for. They just need to overrule the ERG loons and vote in a referendum to confirm that we are leaving on the terms available. If they do that, they get:
- An end to Freedom of Movement - An end to the ECJ having direct jurisdiction over UK law - An end to the CFP - An end to the CAP - An end to paying vast sums to the EU - A smooth transition, protecting jobs - Joining a free trade area from Ireland to Turkey
All as promised by Vote Leave. No Deal, in contrast, is certainly nothing like compatible with the promises made by the Leave campaigns, who assured us again and again that it would be a smooth transition, no jobs would be lost, there would be no difficulties with customs, and the EU would sign a trade deal with us.
In any case, it's not me you need to convince. It's MPs. I'm just looking at the parliamentary numbers.
In addition I don't think the backstop is any where near as onerous or likely as people make out. The EU really, really don't want us in a CU for free for any length of time and the technological systems being suggested under Smart Border 2 by the EU would render the whole issue moot pretty quickly. The only issue with them has ben the length of time they will take to implement. Well now we have another 2 years of the transition so that is certainly enough time to get the system in place.
technological solutions will *never* apply on the Irish border itself
Existing cameras on the border aren't technological solutions ?
Lolza.
"Technological solutions" doesn't just mean cameras on the border. It means imposing an administrative overhead on businesses to make the information the cameras gather useful, and it means an enforcement mechanism to handle those who ignore the system. It will never happen.
Neither will sensors under the Irish sea to monitor Ulster to Rump Uk shipments.
What happens if the EU responds to Parliament voting down the deal by pulling it off the table?
And, in a similar vein, what happens if we opt for a second ref (or GE) but the EU doesn't agree to postpone the exit date? (And why should they? It was a date of our choosing.)
Hold on!!! Take away the bogeyman of an EU army in blue and gold uniforms, with new recruits swearing fealty to Jean-Claude Juncker and receiving EUR10 on acceptance, and where does that leave the mad frothing armchair eurosceptic generals?
I shall watch them fighting the Russians in Ukraine with great interest and much armchair.
I wouldn't set aside more than 20 minutess. The full half-hour tops.
Brexiteers seem much convinced of the prowess of Putin's privates. How do you think Her Maj's forces would stack up (aside from having a convenient 9 trillion litres of water to hide behind)?
In the scenario I'm outlining, they can have what they voted for. They just need to overrule the ERG loons and vote in a referendum to confirm that we are leaving on the terms available. If they do that, they get:
- An end to Freedom of Movement - An end to the ECJ having direct jurisdiction over UK law - An end to the CFP - An end to the CAP - An end to paying vast sums to the EU - A smooth transition, protecting jobs - Joining a free trade area from Ireland to Turkey
All as promised by Vote Leave. No Deal, in contrast, is certainly nothing like compatible with the promises made by the Leave campaigns, who assured us again and again that it would be a smooth transition, no jobs would be lost, there would be no difficulties with customs, and the EU would sign a trade deal with us.
In any case, it's not me you need to convince. It's MPs. I'm just looking at the parliamentary numbers.
In addition I don't think the backstop is any where near as onerous or likely as people make out. The EU really, really don't want us in a CU for free for any length of time and the technological systems being suggested under Smart Border 2 by the EU would render the whole issue moot pretty quickly. The only issue with them has ben the length of time they will take to implement. Well now we have another 2 years of the transition so that is certainly enough time to get the system in place.
technological solutions will *never* apply on the Irish border itself
Existing cameras on the border aren't technological solutions ?
Lolza.
"Technological solutions" doesn't just mean cameras on the border. It means imposing an administrative overhead on businesses to make the information the cameras gather useful, and it means an enforcement mechanism to handle those who ignore the system. It will never happen.
Neither will sensors under the Irish sea to monitor Ulster to Rump Uk shipments.
That's not what an Irish sea border means. Sadly I'm not able to be sure if you're joking or not.
In the scenario I'm outlining, they can have what they voted for. They just need to overrule the ERG loons and vote in a referendum to confirm that we are leaving on the terms available. If they do that, they get:
- An end to Freedom of Movement - An end to the ECJ having direct jurisdiction over UK law - An end to the CFP - An end to the CAP - An end to paying vast sums to the EU - A smooth transition, protecting jobs - Joining a free trade area from Ireland to Turkey
All as promised by Vote Leave. No Deal, in contrast, is certainly nothing like compatible with the promises made by the Leave campaigns, who assured us again and again that it would be a smooth transition, no jobs would be lost, there would be no difficulties with customs, and the EU would sign a trade deal with us.
In any case, it's not me you need to convince. It's MPs. I'm just looking at the parliamentary numbers.
In addition I don't think the backstop is any where near as onerous or likely as people make out. The EU really, really don't want us in a CU for free for any length of time and the technological systems being suggested under Smart Border 2 by the EU would render the whole issue moot pretty quickly. The only issue with them has ben the length of time they will take to implement. Well now we have another 2 years of the transition so that is certainly enough time to get the system in place.
Those technological solutions will *never* apply on the Irish border itself but down the Irish sea.
You have no way knowing that. You just want it to be the case. Indeed those solutions are specifically designed for a land border.
In the scenario I'm outlining, they can have what they voted for. They just need to overrule the ERG loons and vote in a referendum to confirm that we are leaving on the terms available. If they do that, they get:
- An end to Freedom of Movement - An end to the ECJ having direct jurisdiction over UK law - An end to the CFP - An end to the CAP - An end to paying vast sums to the EU - A smooth transition, protecting jobs - Joining a free trade area from Ireland to Turkey
All as promised by Vote Leave. No Deal, in contrast, is certainly nothing like compatible with the promises made by the Leave campaigns, who assured us again and again that it would be a smooth transition, no jobs would be lost, there would be no difficulties with customs, and the EU would sign a trade deal with us.
In any case, it's not me you need to convince. It's MPs. I'm just looking at the parliamentary numbers.
In addition I don't think the backstop is any where near as onerous or likely as people make out. The EU really, really don't want us in a CU for free for any length of time and the technological systems being suggested under Smart Border 2 by the EU would render the whole issue moot pretty quickly. The only issue with them has ben the length of time they will take to implement. Well now we have another 2 years of the transition so that is certainly enough time to get the system in place.
technological solutions will *never* apply on the Irish border itself
Existing cameras on the border aren't technological solutions ?
Lolza.
"Technological solutions" doesn't just mean cameras on the border. It means imposing an administrative overhead on businesses to make the information the cameras gather useful, and it means an enforcement mechanism to handle those who ignore the system. It will never happen.
Exactly the same overheads would apply If that bit we was down the Irish Sea. So your point is... pointless.
Or, the vote will be pulled Sunday evening and we can all get back to writing xmas cards.
Tezza can write her resignation speech instead.
Hard to see any circumstance that May resigns of her own accord.
The Conservative Party was always good at replacing their leaders when required.
Not so sure they are as ruthless as they used to be.
This is unique in some ways as there is a deadline and to replace TM requires a leadership race and member vote. In normal circumstances it would barely be over by Brexit
As someone who has respect and admiration for TM persistance and ability to achieve a middle of the road Brexit, despite unprecedented levels of critiscm and indeed misogny, I am fairly certain she will want to see this through but events could overwhelm her
Sadly for the Country, and notwithstanding TM faults, I do not see a replacement being able to take this forward without a referendum - indeed that must be heading for default position
I do fear a second referendum, and it will not be a pleasant experience or resolve the issue in the medium term, but so be it
Would MPs really vote by any margin at all, still less a large one, to discard the 2016 result and tell people who voted Leave "you now need to vote to Leave for a second time to get it, and then it won't really be Leaving"?
That, and the Remain campaign has an uphill struggle on its hands to actually win a rematch. Consider:
1. Unless they're proposing a referendum with no Leave option (in which case, why bother? They might as well just stop Brexit and skip straight to a General Election,) then Leave starts with a huge advantage in the campaign. Remainers appear to have no strategy beyond preaching catastrophe theories. This didn't work the first time, and this time around Leave voters are endowed with the memory of all the disasters predicted for the immediate aftermath of the original Leave vote that almost entirely failed to come to pass. The credibility of the Treasury and the Bank of England in the eyes of many voters - already low after the financial crisis - has therefore been reduced to somewhere near zero, and the second Remain campaign finds itself in the position of the Boy Who Cried Wolf. Perhaps some of their bleak assessments will be proven right next time around, but none of the people they need to convince to swap sides will believe them until this happens, by which time it will be too late.
2. The Leave campaign, on the other hand, writes itself, in the form of one single question. Just stick up huge posters with the words "Which Part Of The Word 'Leave' Do You People Not Understand," helpfully embellished with big photos of some widely-loathed Remain figures like Tony Blair, on billboards all over the country, along with an identical social media blitz. They scarcely need bother to do anything else.
3. More committed Remainers who failed to vote last time, especially amongst the young, might turn out to bolster their numbers; however, on the other hand many of the pragmatic and unenthusiastic Remainers from last time are likely to resent being asked to vote again on an issue they already believed settled, and either sit on their hands wearily or switch sides to send a message to the politicians. My guess is that, overall, the Leave voter base was more motivated the first time (they were mostly voting against something that they actively disliked, as distinct from the many people on the other side who didn't think much of the EU either, but stuck to nurse for fear of something worse,) and that they are more likely to turn out and vote the same way in a re-run. In particular, for a lot of people in safe Parliamentary seats and in poor areas, Brexit will be the first time in their lives that they felt their vote actually meant anything. Such voters will be incandescent at being ignored, and very motivated to give vent to their disgust with the politicians responsible at the ballot box.
In the scenario I'm outlining, they can have what they voted for. They just need to overrule the ERG loons and vote in a referendum to confirm that we are leaving on the terms available. If they do that, they get:
- An end to Freedom of Movement - An end to the ECJ having direct jurisdiction over UK law - An end to the CFP - An end to the CAP - An end to paying vast sums to the EU - A smooth transition, protecting jobs - Joining a free trade area from Ireland to Turkey
All as promised by Vote Leave. No Deal, in contrast, is certainly nothing like compatible with the promises made by the Leave campaigns, who assured us again and again that it would be a smooth transition, no jobs would be lost, there would be no difficulties with customs, and the EU would sign a trade deal with us.
In any case, it's not me you need to convince. It's MPs. I'm just looking at the parliamentary numbers.
In addition I don't think the backstop is any where near as onerous or likely as people make out. The EU really, really don't want us in a CU for free for any length of time and the technological systems being suggested under Smart Border 2 by the EU would render the whole issue moot pretty quickly. The only issue with them has ben the length of time they will take to implement. Well now we have another 2 years of the transition so that is certainly enough time to get the system in place.
Whether it's two years or three what does it matter. As you say people are focusing on the backstop rather than the firm intention of both parties to not have to institute it.
But that is the MO of the anti-dealers. They are confusing the WA with the future deal.
In the scenario I'm outlining, they can have what they voted for. They just need to overrule the ERG loons and vote in a referendum to confirm that we are leaving on the terms available. If they do that, they get:
- An end to Freedom of Movement - An end to the ECJ having direct jurisdiction over UK law - An end to the CFP - An end to the CAP - An end to paying vast sums to the EU - A smooth transition, protecting jobs - Joining a free trade area from Ireland to Turkey
All as promised by Vote Leave. No Deal, in contrast, is certainly nothing like compatible with the promises made by the Leave campaigns, who assured us again and again that it would be a smooth transition, no jobs would be lost, there would be no difficulties with customs, and the EU would sign a trade deal with us.
In any case, it's not me you need to convince. It's MPs. I'm just looking at the parliamentary numbers.
In addition I don't think the backstop is any where near as onerous or likely as people make out. The EU really, really don't want us in a CU for free for any length of time and the technological systems being suggested under Smart Border 2 by the EU would render the whole issue moot pretty quickly. The only issue with them has ben the length of time they will take to implement. Well now we have another 2 years of the transition so that is certainly enough time to get the system in place.
technological solutions will *never* apply on the Irish border itself
Existing cameras on the border aren't technological solutions ?
Lolza.
"Technological solutions" doesn't just mean cameras on the border. It means imposing an administrative overhead on businesses to make the information the cameras gather useful, and it means an enforcement mechanism to handle those who ignore the system. It will never happen.
Exactly the same overheads would apply If that bit we was down the Irish Sea. So your point is... pointless.
No, because the Irish sea is a geographic border so the same level of trust isn't required.
What happens if the EU responds to Parliament voting down the deal by pulling it off the table?
And, in a similar vein, what happens if we opt for a second ref (or GE) but the EU doesn't agree to postpone the exit date? (And why should they? It was a date of our choosing.)
We will know the answer to that on monday with the ECJ ruling
In the scenario I'm outlining, they can have what they voted for. They just need to overrule the ERG loons and vote in a referendum to confirm that we are leaving on the terms available. If they do that, they get:
- An end to Freedom of Movement - An end to the ECJ having direct jurisdiction over UK law - An end to the CFP - An end to the CAP - An end to paying vast sums to the EU - A smooth transition, protecting jobs - Joining a free trade area from Ireland to Turkey
All as promised by Vote Leave. No Deal, in contrast, is certainly nothing like compatible with the promises made by the Leave campaigns, who assured us again and again that it would be a smooth transition, no jobs would be lost, there would be no difficulties with customs, and the EU would sign a trade deal with us.
In any case, it's not me you need to convince. It's MPs. I'm just looking at the parliamentary numbers.
In addition I don't think the backstop is any where near as onerous or likely as people make out. The EU really, really don't want us in a CU for free for any length of time and the technological systems being suggested under Smart Border 2 by the EU would render the whole issue moot pretty quickly. The only issue with them has ben the length of time they will take to implement. Well now we have another 2 years of the transition so that is certainly enough time to get the system in place.
Those technological solutions will *never* apply on the Irish border itself but down the Irish sea.
I simply don't know how they can be overcome but technology has a habit of delivering. Can @NickP comment on some of the phyto-sanitary checks for example?
Would MPs really vote by any margin at all, still less a large one, to discard the 2016 result and tell people who voted Leave "you now need to vote to Leave for a second time to get it, and then it won't really be Leaving"?
That, and the Remain campaign has an uphill struggle on its hands to actually win a rematch. Consider:
1. Unless they're proposing a referendum with no Leave option (in which case, why bother? Remainers appear to have no strategy beyond preaching catastrophe theories. This didn't work the first time, and this time around Leave voters are endowed with the memory of all the disasters predicted for the immediate aftermath of the original Leave vote that almost entirely failed to come to pass. The credibility of the Treasury and the Bank of England in the eyes of many voters - already low after the financial crisis - has therefore been reduced to somewhere near zero, and the second Remain campaign finds itself in the position of the Boy Who Cried Wolf. Perhaps some of their bleak assessments will be proven right next time around, but none of the people they need to convince to swap sides will believe them until this happens, by which time it will be too late.
2. The Leave campaign, on the other hand, writes itself, in the form of one single question. Just stick up huge posters with the words "Which Part Of The Word 'Leave' Do You People Not Understand," helpfully embellished with big photos of some widely-loathed Remain figures like Tony Blair, on billboards all over the country, along with an identical social media blitz. They scarcely need bother to do anything else.
3. More committed Remainers who failed to vote last time, especially amongst the young, might turn out to bolster their numbers; however, on the other hand many of the pragmatic and unenthusiastic Remainers from last time are likely to resent being asked to vote again on an issue they already believed settled, and either sit on their hands wearily or switch sides to send a message to the politicians. My guess is that, overall, the Leave voter base was more motivated the first time (they were mostly voting against something that they actively disliked, as distinct from the many people on the other side who didn't think much of the EU either, but stuck to nurse for fear of something worse,) and that they are more likely to turn out and vote the same way in a re-run. In particular, for a lot of people in safe Parliamentary seats and in poor areas, Brexit will be the first time in their lives that they felt their vote actually meant anything. Such voters will be incandescent at being ignored, and very motivated to give vent to their disgust with the politicians responsible at the ballot box.
Mrs May's deal is the Leave option that was negotiated by David Davis, Boris and the rest of the government.
If Westminster decides to can Brexit, it is going to be a glorious time subseuently to be a Brexiteer, as EVERYTHING that goes wrong in the UK gets blamed on the Remainers.
It will be great sport, hounding each and every one of them from office....
I don't think people are going to forget the fiasco of recent months as quickly as that. The Brexit hardnuts aren't going to be getting a hearing any time soon.
If Westminster decides to can Brexit, it is going to be a glorious time subseuently to be a Brexiteer, as EVERYTHING that goes wrong in the UK gets blamed on the Remainers.
It will be great sport, hounding each and every one of them from office....
I don't think people are going to forget the fiasco of recent months as quickly as that. The Brexit hardnuts aren't going to be getting a hearing any time soon.
Wrong. There is going to be VAST anger if the popular vote is overturned. And those who did it will get every bit of blame going. And more. The next recession? Down to Remainers....
Just like his article in The Guardian, it commits him to doing precisely nothing. Phrases like "will consider" and "keeping all options on the table" are completely meaningless.
Corbyn is waiting for the clock to run down and for the UK to leave without a deal, in the hope that it's a disaster and he can use the situation to force a collapsing Tory Government out of power and win a General Election. Rid of the constraints of the single market and customs union, he'd then have control of all the country's economic levers and be free to implement a socialist programme.
Mrs May's deal is the Leave option that was negotiated by David Davis, Boris and the rest of the government.
No. May's Deal is May's Deal. It is fucked BECAUSE she took it away from Brexiteers. Specifically, because Davis was getting somewhere on negotiating Canada +.
Mr. 43, I'd guess a second referendum with a choice between No Deal Leave and Remain.
Parliament isn't going to put no deal to a ballot just because a handful of millionaire MPs and a cohort of economically inactive pensioners seem to think it might be worth a try.
If Westminster decides to can Brexit, it is going to be a glorious time subseuently to be a Brexiteer, as EVERYTHING that goes wrong in the UK gets blamed on the Remainers.
It will be great sport, hounding each and every one of them from office....
I don't think people are going to forget the fiasco of recent months as quickly as that. The Brexit hardnuts aren't going to be getting a hearing any time soon.
With respect that is naive and almost arrogant.
I condemn the ultra brexiteers totally but they believe in their cause as much as you in the EU and they will continue, post a lost referendum, and possibly with growing support in leave areas as the EU continue to dominate the political agenda
Just like his article in The Guardian, it commits him to doing precisely nothing. Phrases like "will consider" and "keeping all options on the table" are completely meaningless.
Corbyn is waiting for the clock to run down and for the UK to leave without a deal, in the hope that it's a disaster and he can use the situation to force a collapsing Tory Government out of power and win a General Election. Rid of the constraints of the single market and customs union, he'd then have control of all the country's economic levers and be free to implement a socialist programme.
Corbyn is a Leaver. That is what he wants.
It may be, but the trouble for him enough in parliament are against no deal, but also against the deal, that Labour and he will have no choice soon but to stop faffing about and back a particular outcome. And given the views of his members and MPs, he may not have much choice about that at that point.
For example, a second referendum of some kind is a plausible scenario, albeit what the question would be is still confused. But if there is one, Labour will need to pick a side. Sure, they can claim to not take an official stance and he can play it cool, but 90% of his MPs will be backing remain, and the party will in effect have taken a stance anyway.
If Westminster decides to can Brexit, it is going to be a glorious time subseuently to be a Brexiteer, as EVERYTHING that goes wrong in the UK gets blamed on the Remainers.
It will be great sport, hounding each and every one of them from office....
I don't think people are going to forget the fiasco of recent months as quickly as that. The Brexit hardnuts aren't going to be getting a hearing any time soon.
With respect that is naive and almost arrogant.
I condemn the ultra brexiteers totally but they believe in their cause as much as you in the EU and they will continue, post a lost referendum, and possibly with growing support in leave areas as the EU continue to dominate the political agenda
Doesn't matter though, because we'll be in the EU, the ECJ will be able to veto A50 in the future, no government will ever again even consider embarking on this shit show, and in a few years the mostly elderly and gammon Brexiteers will all have died of old age and heart disease.
Mr. 43, I'd guess a second referendum with a choice between No Deal Leave and Remain.
Parliament isn't going to put no deal to a ballot just because a handful of millionaire MPs and a cohort of economically inactive pensioners seem to think it might be worth a try.
If they refuse to contemplate no deal, and comprehensively reject May's deal, they should have the balls to just revoke A50 without putting something to the people at all - what's the point in asking them to choose between remaining and the terrible, vassalage Brexit the Commons think is so terrible?
If Westminster decides to can Brexit, it is going to be a glorious time subseuently to be a Brexiteer, as EVERYTHING that goes wrong in the UK gets blamed on the Remainers.
It will be great sport, hounding each and every one of them from office....
I don't think people are going to forget the fiasco of recent months as quickly as that. The Brexit hardnuts aren't going to be getting a hearing any time soon.
With respect that is naive and almost arrogant.
I condemn the ultra brexiteers totally but they believe in their cause as much as you in the EU and they will continue, post a lost referendum, and possibly with growing support in leave areas as the EU continue to dominate the political agenda
Indeed. The narrative of a stolen vote is much stronger than that of a denied vote. If we do not leave then Ian will see no settlement of politics on this country for many, many years if ever. The immediate effects will, at best, be a massive increase in support for extremism. If democracy no longer works, why support it.
If Westminster decides to can Brexit, it is going to be a glorious time subseuently to be a Brexiteer, as EVERYTHING that goes wrong in the UK gets blamed on the Remainers.
It will be great sport, hounding each and every one of them from office....
I don't think people are going to forget the fiasco of recent months as quickly as that. The Brexit hardnuts aren't going to be getting a hearing any time soon.
The Brexit voters will die off. Or go back to abstaining, racing whippets or pidgeons and indulging in their usual hobbies of racism and homophobia while we remainers will be working hard to pay their benefits and pensions.
It may be, but the trouble for him enough in parliament are against no deal, but also against the deal, that Labour and he will have no choice soon but to stop faffing about and back a particular outcome. And given the views of his members and MPs, he may not have much choice about that at that point.
For example, a second referendum of some kind is a plausible scenario, albeit what the question would be is still confused. But if there is one, Labour will need to pick a side. Sure, they can claim to not take an official stance and he can play it cool, but 90% of his MPs will be backing remain, and the party will in effect have taken a stance anyway.
I think Corbyn and McDonnell and Starmer have done a good job of holding the line that was agreed by conference (try for a general election, renegotiate, referendum last resort), whilst showing *just enough* remain ankle to keep the party faithful on board.
They've certainly done far better at keeping their members happy than May, who overwhelmingly hate her deal.
In the scenario I'm outlining, they can have what they voted for. They just need to overrule the ERG loons and vote in a referendum to confirm that we are leaving on the terms available. If they do that, they get:
- An end to Freedom of Movement - An end to the ECJ having direct jurisdiction over UK law - An end to the CFP - An end to the CAP - An end to paying vast sums to the EU - A smooth transition, protecting jobs - Joining a free trade area from Ireland to Turkey
All as promised by Vote Leave. No Deal, in contrast, is certainly nothing like compatible with the promises made by the Leave campaigns, who assured us again and again that it would be a smooth transition, no jobs would be lost, there would be no difficulties with customs, and the EU would sign a trade deal with us.
In any case, it's not me you need to convince. It's MPs. I'm just looking at the parliamentary numbers.
In addition I don't think the backstop is any where near as onerous or likely as people make out. The EU really, really don't want us in a CU for free for any length of time and the technological systems being suggested under Smart Border 2 by the EU would render the whole issue moot pretty quickly. The only issue with them has ben the length of time they will take to implement. Well now we have another 2 years of the transition so that is certainly enough time to get the system in place.
Those technological solutions will *never* apply on the Irish border itself but down the Irish sea.
I simply don't know how they can be overcome but technology has a habit of delivering. Can @NickP comment on some of the phyto-sanitary checks for example?
This was the stuff I was talking about Topping. It was a report commissioned by the EU themselves. At least they are trying to take this whole thing seriously even if large parts of the UK political scene do not.
If Westminster decides to can Brexit, it is going to be a glorious time subseuently to be a Brexiteer, as EVERYTHING that goes wrong in the UK gets blamed on the Remainers.
It will be great sport, hounding each and every one of them from office....
I don't think people are going to forget the fiasco of recent months as quickly as that. The Brexit hardnuts aren't going to be getting a hearing any time soon.
The Brexit voters will die off. Or go back to abstaining, racing whippets or pidgeons and indulging in their usual hobbies of racism and homophobia while we remainers will be working hard to pay their benefits and pensions.
You have learned so much from the problems that led to a leave vote in the first place, thank goodness you are not being complacent about there still being issues. It's not like politics is complicated in anyway, the bad guys die off and it is just that easy.
Mrs May's deal is the Leave option that was negotiated by David Davis, Boris and the rest of the government.
So? Leaving is in the eye of the beholder.
Regardless, in the unlikely event of there being another referendum in the first place, I contend that it would have to be called by a National Government, post a generalised, Brexit-induced implosion of the political system. Such a Government would have no mandate and no program, beyond sorting out the EU situation. Either a second vote or a cancellation of Brexit by the will of Parliament would inevitably be followed, in short order, by a General Election - itself acting as a proxy for yet another referendum.
I don't think MPs have the will to smash up their own parties for the sake of doing what they want to regarding Europe, but if I'm wrong and they do then they might as well spare us the time, expense and heartache of the referendum, rescind the Article 50 notification (assuming that this is permitted by the ECJ judgement on Monday,) and then skip straight to the General Election.
I don't believe that there will be a "People's Vote," but even if I'm wrong about that then I also don't see what useful purpose it would serve.
If Westminster decides to can Brexit, it is going to be a glorious time subseuently to be a Brexiteer, as EVERYTHING that goes wrong in the UK gets blamed on the Remainers.
It will be great sport, hounding each and every one of them from office....
I don't think people are going to forget the fiasco of recent months as quickly as that. The Brexit hardnuts aren't going to be getting a hearing any time soon.
With respect that is naive and almost arrogant.
I condemn the ultra brexiteers totally but they believe in their cause as much as you in the EU and they will continue, post a lost referendum, and possibly with growing support in leave areas as the EU continue to dominate the political agenda
Doesn't matter though, because we'll be in the EU, the ECJ will be able to veto A50 in the future, no government will ever again even consider embarking on this shit show, and in a few years the mostly elderly and gammon Brexiteers will all have died of old age and heart disease.
My wife and I are in the group you continually insult and we both voted remain
In the scenario I'm outlining, they can have what they voted for. They just need to overrule the ERG loons and vote in a referendum to confirm that we are leaving on the terms available. If they do that, they get:
- An end to Freedom of Movement - An end to the ECJ having direct jurisdiction over UK law - An end to the CFP - An end to the CAP - An end to paying vast sums to the EU - A smooth transition, protecting jobs - Joining a free trade area from Ireland to Turkey
All as promised by Vote Leave. No Deal, in contrast, is certainly nothing like compatible with the promises made by the Leave campaigns, who assured us again and again that it would be a smooth transition, no jobs would be lost, there would be no difficulties with customs, and the EU would sign a trade deal with us.
In any case, it's not me you need to convince. It's MPs. I'm just looking at the parliamentary numbers.
In addition I don't think the backstop is any where near as onerous or likely as people make out. The EU really, really don't want us in a CU for free for any length of time and the technological systems being suggested under Smart Border 2 by the EU would render the whole issue moot pretty quickly. The only issue with them has ben the length of time they will take to implement. Well now we have another 2 years of the transition so that is certainly enough time to get the system in place.
Whether it's two years or three what does it matter. As you say people are focusing on the backstop rather than the firm intention of both parties to not have to institute it.
But that is the MO of the anti-dealers. They are confusing the WA with the future deal.
In the scenario I'm outlining, they can have what they voted for. They just need to overrule the ERG loons and vote in a referendum to confirm that we are leaving on the terms available. If they do that, they get:
- An end to Freedom of Movement - An end to the ECJ having direct jurisdiction over UK law - An end to the CFP - An end to the CAP - An end to paying vast sums to the EU - A smooth transition, protecting jobs - Joining a free trade area from Ireland to Turkey
All as promised by Vote Leave. No Deal, in contrast, is certainly nothing like compatible with the promises made by the Leave campaigns, who assured us again and again that it would be a smooth transition, no jobs would be lost, there would be no difficulties with customs, and the EU would sign a trade deal with us.
In any case, it's not me you need to convince. It's MPs. I'm just looking at the parliamentary numbers.
In addition I don't think the backstop is any where near as onerous or likely as people make out. The EU really, really don't want us in a CU for free for any length of time and the technological systems being suggested under Smart Border 2 by the EU would render the whole issue moot pretty quickly. The only issue with them has ben the length of time they will take to implement. Well now we have another 2 years of the transition so that is certainly enough time to get the system in place.
technological solutions will *never* apply on the Irish border itself
Existing cameras on the border aren't technological solutions ?
Lolza.
"Technological solutions" doesn't just mean cameras on the border. It means imposing an administrative overhead on businesses to make the information the cameras gather useful, and it means an enforcement mechanism to handle those who ignore the system. It will never happen.
Exactly the same overheads would apply If that bit we was down the Irish Sea. So your point is... pointless.
No, because the Irish sea is a geographic border so the same level of trust isn't required.
You seem top be wilfully ignorant of the checks that already exist at the NI/Eire border.
Isn't it about time the Irish got some credit? Varadkar and Coveney have been mocked on here repeatedly but they must be pretty pleased with how the Brexit talks are going.
It may be, but the trouble for him enough in parliament are against no deal, but also against the deal, that Labour and he will have no choice soon but to stop faffing about and back a particular outcome. And given the views of his members and MPs, he may not have much choice about that at that point.
For example, a second referendum of some kind is a plausible scenario, albeit what the question would be is still confused. But if there is one, Labour will need to pick a side. Sure, they can claim to not take an official stance and he can play it cool, but 90% of his MPs will be backing remain, and the party will in effect have taken a stance anyway.
I think Corbyn and McDonnell and Starmer have done a good job of holding the line that was agreed by conference (try for a general election, renegotiate, referendum last resort), whilst showing *just enough* remain ankle to keep the party faithful on board.
They've certainly done far better at keeping their members happy than May, who overwhelmingly hate her deal.
Yes they have, but that line they have stuck to actually works best if the Deal scraped over the line and they could continue, even into Brexit, to claim different things to different people by emphasising the different stages of the official policy (eg playing up a referendum is possible to remainers).
Since that won't happen and parliament has to come up with something else, Labour will need to enact their policy and since a GE is still seen as unlikely (it's also pointless and reckless but we'll ignore that for the moment) and the Tories are unlikely to suggest Labour get to renegotiate for everyone, they will switch to referendum.
So far so good, but people will want to know which way they plan to vote in it. Even if Corbyn really does want to leave so he can do all he wants to do, he cannot avoid letting most of his party backing remain, they will do so anyway.
Or, the vote will be pulled Sunday evening and we can all get back to writing xmas cards.
Tezza can write her resignation speech instead.
Hard to see any circumstance that May resigns of her own accord.
The Conservative Party was always good at replacing their leaders when required.
Not so sure they are as ruthless as they used to be.
This is unique in some ways as there is a deadline and to replace TM requires a leadership race and member vote. In normal circumstances it would barely be over by Brexit
As someone who has respect and admiration for TM persistance and ability to achieve a middle of the road Brexit, despite unprecedented levels of critiscm and indeed misogny, I am fairly certain she will want to see this through but events could overwhelm her
Sadly for the Country, and notwithstanding TM faults, I do not see a replacement being able to take this forward without a referendum - indeed that must be heading for default position
I do fear a second referendum, and it will not be a pleasant experience or resolve the issue in the medium term, but so be it
It will never resolve the issue. It is pointless and dangerous.
Mr. 43, I'd guess a second referendum with a choice between No Deal Leave and Remain.
Parliament isn't going to put no deal to a ballot just because a handful of millionaire MPs and a cohort of economically inactive pensioners seem to think it might be worth a try.
If they refuse to contemplate no deal, and comprehensively reject May's deal, they should have the balls to just revoke A50 without putting something to the people at all - what's the point in asking them to choose between remaining and the terrible, vassalage Brexit the Commons think is so terrible?
The only point of a second vote is to produce a democratic decision to overturn the first one, or alternatively a democratic decision to press ahead. If Remain is off the table, Parliament ought to be (and in the end probably will be) capable of deciding how to leave, and a second vote serves no purpose.
Isn't it about time the Irish got some credit? Varadkar and Coveney have been mocked on here repeatedly but they must be pretty pleased with how the Brexit talks are going.
If Westminster decides to can Brexit, it is going to be a glorious time subseuently to be a Brexiteer, as EVERYTHING that goes wrong in the UK gets blamed on the Remainers.
It will be great sport, hounding each and every one of them from office....
I don't think people are going to forget the fiasco of recent months as quickly as that. The Brexit hardnuts aren't going to be getting a hearing any time soon.
The Brexit voters will die off. Or go back to abstaining, racing whippets or pidgeons and indulging in their usual hobbies of racism and homophobia while we remainers will be working hard to pay their benefits and pensions.
You have learned so much from the problems they led to a leave vote in the first place, thank goodness you are not being complacent about there still being issues. It's not like politics is complicated in anyway, the bad guys die off and it is just that easy.
I mean they are dying. We're all dying. But they're dying much faster. We just have to not make the Cameron mistake of asking the gammons their opinion again. Or if we do, ask them a question where the answer can't fuck everything up every two years.
Why didn't we just give them a rerefendum on blue passports or something?
If Westminster decides to can Brexit, it is going to be a glorious time subseuently to be a Brexiteer, as EVERYTHING that goes wrong in the UK gets blamed on the Remainers.
It will be great sport, hounding each and every one of them from office....
I don't think people are going to forget the fiasco of recent months as quickly as that. The Brexit hardnuts aren't going to be getting a hearing any time soon.
The Brexit voters will die off. Or go back to abstaining, racing whippets or pidgeons and indulging in their usual hobbies of racism and homophobia while we remainers will be working hard to pay their benefits and pensions.
You expect harmony post a remain brexit and produce bile like that
I have a suggestion to make in the national interest cut out the insult and be magnanimous if we remain you will be the victor and there will be a huge amount of reconcillation needed
If Westminster decides to can Brexit, it is going to be a glorious time subseuently to be a Brexiteer, as EVERYTHING that goes wrong in the UK gets blamed on the Remainers.
It will be great sport, hounding each and every one of them from office....
I don't think people are going to forget the fiasco of recent months as quickly as that. The Brexit hardnuts aren't going to be getting a hearing any time soon.
The Brexit voters will die off. Or go back to abstaining, racing whippets or pidgeons and indulging in their usual hobbies of racism and homophobia while we remainers will be working hard to pay their benefits and pensions.
If Westminster decides to can Brexit, it is going to be a glorious time subseuently to be a Brexiteer, as EVERYTHING that goes wrong in the UK gets blamed on the Remainers.
It will be great sport, hounding each and every one of them from office....
I don't think people are going to forget the fiasco of recent months as quickly as that. The Brexit hardnuts aren't going to be getting a hearing any time soon.
With respect that is naive and almost arrogant.
I condemn the ultra brexiteers totally but they believe in their cause as much as you in the EU and they will continue, post a lost referendum, and possibly with growing support in leave areas as the EU continue to dominate the political agenda
Doesn't matter though, because we'll be in the EU, the ECJ will be able to veto A50 in the future, no government will ever again even consider embarking on this shit show, and in a few years the mostly elderly and gammon Brexiteers will all have died of old age and heart disease.
The next election, the Tory Party gets smashed by a huge strike by ex-supporters.
Corbyn comes in, wrecks the economy whilst getting us mired even further into the EU. A whole new generation comes to hate him - and the EU.
The election after that (which may not be very long), the EU dominates the agenda - and a whole new generation comes to blame the EU for the reason they have no job/house/hope....
A new anti-EU party comes in, pledging just to walk away. Gets a majority. Honours its pledge....
THAT is what the wreckers of Remain will have spawned.
If Westminster decides to can Brexit, it is going to be a glorious time subseuently to be a Brexiteer, as EVERYTHING that goes wrong in the UK gets blamed on the Remainers.
It will be great sport, hounding each and every one of them from office....
I don't think people are going to forget the fiasco of recent months as quickly as that. The Brexit hardnuts aren't going to be getting a hearing any time soon.
The Brexit voters will die off. Or go back to abstaining, racing whippets or pidgeons and indulging in their usual hobbies of racism and homophobia while we remainers will be working hard to pay their benefits and pensions.
You have learned so much from the problems they led to a leave vote in the first place, thank goodness you are not being complacent about there still being issues. It's not like politics is complicated in anyway, the bad guys die off and it is just that easy.
Politics is complicated, which is why it is best to leave it to professionals and experts and not hold silly referenda The problems we are facing include housing and inequality of opportunity These will not be solved by pandering to pensioners.
The idea that NATO constrains European strategic thinking and scope is farcical. No EU army is going to deter Russian aggression. That depends upon US involvement in NATO. The EU might not like Trump, which is understandable, but trying to ignore him and carry on without the US is both childish and misplaced. Putin must be rubbing his hands in delight.
When it comes to countering terrorism, an EU army would be pointless.
Britain should have nothing to do with EU defence integration.
If Westminster decides to can Brexit, it is going to be a glorious time subseuently to be a Brexiteer, as EVERYTHING that goes wrong in the UK gets blamed on the Remainers.
It will be great sport, hounding each and every one of them from office....
I don't think people are going to forget the fiasco of recent months as quickly as that. The Brexit hardnuts aren't going to be getting a hearing any time soon.
The Brexit voters will die off. Or go back to abstaining, racing whippets or pidgeons and indulging in their usual hobbies of racism and homophobia while we remainers will be working hard to pay their benefits and pensions.
That is overstating things. The more fundamental point is that people can see (and have had enough of) the current crisis and are mostly well aware that it is of the Brexiters' making. Boris and JRM have gone from being serious contenders for next PM to being figures of derision and contempt. The small number of fanatics always were going to be dissatisfied and shout betrayal - even if we leave - but they won't again get mass support whether we go down the deal or the Remain route.
If Westminster decides to can Brexit, it is going to be a glorious time subseuently to be a Brexiteer, as EVERYTHING that goes wrong in the UK gets blamed on the Remainers.
It will be great sport, hounding each and every one of them from office....
I don't think people are going to forget the fiasco of recent months as quickly as that. The Brexit hardnuts aren't going to be getting a hearing any time soon.
Most people won't even have noticed. Most people only pay attention to politics when it's nearly time to vote.
If Westminster decides to can Brexit, it is going to be a glorious time subseuently to be a Brexiteer, as EVERYTHING that goes wrong in the UK gets blamed on the Remainers.
It will be great sport, hounding each and every one of them from office....
I don't think people are going to forget the fiasco of recent months as quickly as that. The Brexit hardnuts aren't going to be getting a hearing any time soon.
The Brexit voters will die off. Or go back to abstaining, racing whippets or pidgeons and indulging in their usual hobbies of racism and homophobia while we remainers will be working hard to pay their benefits and pensions.
LOL - all that post does is show your own nastiness.
In the scenario I'm outlining, they can have what they voted for. They just need to overrule the ERG loons and vote in a referendum to confirm that we are leaving on the terms available. If they do that, they get:
- An end to Freedom of Movement - An end to the ECJ having direct jurisdiction over UK law - An end to the CFP - An end to the CAP - An end to paying vast sums to the EU - A smooth transition, protecting jobs - Joining a free trade area from Ireland to Turkey
All as promised by Vote Leave. No Deal, in contrast, is certainly nothing like compatible with the promises made by the Leave campaigns, who assured us again and again that it would be a smooth transition, no jobs would be lost, there would be no difficulties with customs, and the EU would sign a trade deal with us.
In any case, it's not me you need to convince. It's MPs. I'm just looking at the parliamentary numbers.
In addition I don't think the backstop is any where near as onerous or likely as people make out. The EU really, really don't want us in a CU for free for any length of time and the technological systems being suggested under Smart Border 2 by the EU would render the whole issue moot pretty quickly. The only issue with them has ben the length of time they will take to implement. Well now we have another 2 years of the transition so that is certainly enough time to get the system in place.
technological solutions will *never* apply on the Irish border itself
Existing cameras on the border aren't technological solutions ?
Lolza.
"Technological solutions" doesn't just mean cameras on the border. It means imposing an administrative overhead on businesses to make the information the cameras gather useful, and it means an enforcement mechanism to handle those who ignore the system. It will never happen.
Exactly the same overheads would apply If that bit we was down the Irish Sea. So your point is... pointless.
No, because the Irish sea is a geographic border so the same level of trust isn't required.
You seem top be wilfully ignorant of the checks that already exist at the NI/Eire border.
No, and in fact you've just argued against your own point since checks already happen.
If Westminster decides to can Brexit, it is going to be a glorious time subseuently to be a Brexiteer, as EVERYTHING that goes wrong in the UK gets blamed on the Remainers.
It will be great sport, hounding each and every one of them from office....
I don't think people are going to forget the fiasco of recent months as quickly as that. The Brexit hardnuts aren't going to be getting a hearing any time soon.
The Brexit voters will die off. Or go back to abstaining, racing whippets or pidgeons and indulging in their usual hobbies of racism and homophobia while we remainers will be working hard to pay their benefits and pensions.
You expect harmony post a remain brexit and produce bile like that
I have a suggestion to make in the national interest cut out the insult and be magnanimous if we remain you will be the victor and there will be a huge amount of reconcillation needed
I think we are long, long, LONG past the point where the Brexiteer dipshits that caused this omnishambles should expect ANY magnanimity.
Mr. 43, I'd guess a second referendum with a choice between No Deal Leave and Remain.
Parliament isn't going to put no deal to a ballot just because a handful of millionaire MPs and a cohort of economically inactive pensioners seem to think it might be worth a try.
If they refuse to contemplate no deal, and comprehensively reject May's deal, they should have the balls to just revoke A50 without putting something to the people at all - what's the point in asking them to choose between remaining and the terrible, vassalage Brexit the Commons think is so terrible?
The only point of a second vote is to produce a democratic decision to overturn the first one, or alternatively a democratic decision to press ahead.
Yes, but as you've just noted they won;t allow no deal to go ahead. And since they will have been very clear the deal is an absolutely shit show, getting a democratic decision to reject it is either cowardly or irresponsible. Either it is not as bad as they are claiming because they want to remain so bad, or it is as bad as they are saying and yet they will do it anyway when they could avoid it. If what they claim is true the people will be happy parliament has done it.
Not having a democratic mandate hasn't stopped anyone claiming the public want to vote again and, either directly or indirectly, that they will vote remain (which is the motivation - every now and then people slip and talk about wanting a peoples vote to remain and so on, demonstrating it is not about caring about democratic mandates, but about making the correct choice).
If Westminster decides to can Brexit, it is going to be a glorious time subseuently to be a Brexiteer, as EVERYTHING that goes wrong in the UK gets blamed on the Remainers.
It will be great sport, hounding each and every one of them from office....
I don't think people are going to forget the fiasco of recent months as quickly as that. The Brexit hardnuts aren't going to be getting a hearing any time soon.
With respect that is naive and almost arrogant.
I condemn the ultra brexiteers totally but they believe in their cause as much as you in the EU and they will continue, post a lost referendum, and possibly with growing support in leave areas as the EU continue to dominate the political agenda
Doesn't matter though, because we'll be in the EU, the ECJ will be able to veto A50 in the future, no government will ever again even consider embarking on this shit show, and in a few years the mostly elderly and gammon Brexiteers will all have died of old age and heart disease.
The next election, the Tory Party gets smashed by a huge strike by ex-supporters.
Corbyn comes in, wrecks the economy whilst getting us mired even further into the EU. A whole new generation comes to hate him - and the EU.
The election after that (which may not be very long), the EU dominates the agenda - and a whole new generation comes to blame the EU for the reason they have no job/house/hope....
A new anti-EU party comes in, pledging just to walk away. Gets a majority. Honours its pledge....
THAT is what the wreckers of Remain will have spawned.
The alternative scenario where we leave and the Brexit backlash sweeps Corbyn into office with similar consequences is just as likely. The Tories are probably stuffed either way.
Just like his article in The Guardian, it commits him to doing precisely nothing. Phrases like "will consider" and "keeping all options on the table" are completely meaningless.
Corbyn is waiting for the clock to run down and for the UK to leave without a deal, in the hope that it's a disaster and he can use the situation to force a collapsing Tory Government out of power and win a General Election. Rid of the constraints of the single market and customs union, he'd then have control of all the country's economic levers and be free to implement a socialist programme.
Corbyn is a Leaver. That is what he wants.
It may be, but the trouble for him enough in parliament are against no deal, but also against the deal, that Labour and he will have no choice soon but to stop faffing about and back a particular outcome. And given the views of his members and MPs, he may not have much choice about that at that point.
For example, a second referendum of some kind is a plausible scenario, albeit what the question would be is still confused. But if there is one, Labour will need to pick a side. Sure, they can claim to not take an official stance and he can play it cool, but 90% of his MPs will be backing remain, and the party will in effect have taken a stance anyway.
Nah, after facing down the PLP when they tried to get rid of him, what more does he have to fear from them? They're a busted flush.
The Labour rank-and-file are mostly pro-EU, but they're also mostly pro-JC. That's what his unicorn renegotiation strategy is all about: keeping them loyal. I would give you all the benefits of the EU without being in it, if only those stubborn Tories would get out of my way, he says. I *might* (but won't) back another vote if we can't get the horrid Tories to budge, he says. Trust me, he says. It is all the Tories' fault.
Run down the clock, leave, blame Tories for leaving, and try to force an election. Angry membership will blame Tories not Corbyn for leaving, then praise Corbyn to the rafters and throw the most enormous party ever if he gets into Government.
Most members will then put all matters European on the back burner, whilst they work out important priorities such as whose property to confiscate and whether to raise the higher rate of income tax to 80% or 90%. The ones who are really committed can start campaigning for a referendum to rejoin. Which will never happen, because the electorate won't want to go through all this crap yet again, and the EU won't let us back in either. Job done.
If Westminster decides to can Brexit, it is going to be a glorious time subseuently to be a Brexiteer, as EVERYTHING that goes wrong in the UK gets blamed on the Remainers.
It will be great sport, hounding each and every one of them from office....
I don't think people are going to forget the fiasco of recent months as quickly as that. The Brexit hardnuts aren't going to be getting a hearing any time soon.
With respect that is naive and almost arrogant.
I condemn the ultra brexiteers totally but they believe in their cause as much as you in the EU and they will continue, post a lost referendum, and possibly with growing support in leave areas as the EU continue to dominate the political agenda
Doesn't matter though, because we'll be in the EU, the ECJ will be able to veto A50 in the future, no government will ever again even consider embarking on this shit show, and in a few years the mostly elderly and gammon Brexiteers will all have died of old age and heart disease.
The next election, the Tory Party gets smashed by a huge strike by ex-supporters.
Corbyn comes in, wrecks the economy whilst getting us mired even further into the EU. A whole new generation comes to hate him - and the EU.
The election after that (which may not be very long), the EU dominates the agenda - and a whole new generation comes to blame the EU for the reason they have no job/house/hope....
A new anti-EU party comes in, pledging just to walk away. Gets a majority. Honours its pledge....
THAT is what the wreckers of Remain will have spawned.
Well on that time scale my good lady and I are unlikely to have any input as we will have finally passed away, as Grabcoque keeps reminding us
Mr. 43, I'd guess a second referendum with a choice between No Deal Leave and Remain.
Parliament isn't going to put no deal to a ballot just because a handful of millionaire MPs and a cohort of economically inactive pensioners seem to think it might be worth a try.
No, but they might because they voted for it to be the default option.
In the scenario I'm outlining, they can have what they voted for. They just need to overrule the ERG loons and vote in a referendum to confirm that we are leaving on the terms available. If they do that, they get:
- An end to Freedom of Movement - An end to the ECJ having direct jurisdiction over UK law - An end to the CFP - An end to the CAP - An end to paying vast sums to the EU - A smooth transition, protecting jobs - Joining a free trade area from Ireland to Turkey
All as promised by Vote Leave. No Deal, in contrast, is certainly nothing like compatible with the promises made by the Leave campaigns, who assured us again and again that it would be a smooth transition, no jobs would be lost, there would be no difficulties with customs, and the EU would sign a trade deal with us.
In any case, it's not me you need to convince. It's MPs. I'm just looking at the parliamentary numbers.
In addition I don't think the backstop is any where near as onerous or likely as people make out. The EU really, really don't want us in a CU for free for any length of time and the technological systems being suggested under Smart Border 2 by the EU would render the whole issue moot pretty quickly. The only issue with them has ben the length of time they will take to implement. Well now we have another 2 years of the transition so that is certainly enough time to get the system in place.
technological solutions will *never* apply on the Irish border itself
Existing cameras on the border aren't technological solutions ?
Lolza.
"Technological solutions" doesn't just mean cameras on the border. It means imposing an administrative overhead on businesses to make the information the cameras gather useful, and it means an enforcement mechanism to handle those who ignore the system. It will never happen.
Exactly the same overheads would apply If that bit we was down the Irish Sea. So your point is... pointless.
No, because the Irish sea is a geographic border so the same level of trust isn't required.
You seem top be wilfully ignorant of the checks that already exist at the NI/Eire border.
No, and in fact you've just argued against your own point since checks already happen.
I haven't argued against it at all. It reinforces the point that a technological solution is practical and desirable. Well except for you of course as you hate anything that might mean Brexit can actually proceed.
If Westminster decides to can Brexit, it is going to be a glorious time subseuently to be a Brexiteer, as EVERYTHING that goes wrong in the UK gets blamed on the Remainers.
It will be great sport, hounding each and every one of them from office....
I don't think people are going to forget the fiasco of recent months as quickly as that. The Brexit hardnuts aren't going to be getting a hearing any time soon.
The Brexit voters will die off. Or go back to abstaining, racing whippets or pidgeons and indulging in their usual hobbies of racism and homophobia while we remainers will be working hard to pay their benefits and pensions.
You have learned so much from the problems they led to a leave vote in the first place, thank goodness you are not being complacent about there still being issues. It's not like politics is complicated in anyway, the bad guys die off and it is just that easy.
Politics is complicated, which is why it is best to leave it to professionals and experts and not hold silly referenda The problems we are facing include housing and inequality of opportunity These will not be solved by pandering to pensioners.
They probably won't. Dismissing the concerns that are more popular with pensioners but which are significant minorities elsewhere though, because they are just ignorant racists, is hardly a recipe for resolving the problems we have.
And if referenda are so silly there is no need for one to correct our current course. Yes that would be hard for MPs, but if they could not countenance the outcome people at the time wanted and which they legislated to make the default option, they should not have done so and if they have to cancel it without asking the people again to ensure we avoid catastrophe they should suck it up and do it.
If Westminster decides to can Brexit, it is going to be a glorious time subseuently to be a Brexiteer, as EVERYTHING that goes wrong in the UK gets blamed on the Remainers.
It will be great sport, hounding each and every one of them from office....
I don't think people are going to forget the fiasco of recent months as quickly as that. The Brexit hardnuts aren't going to be getting a hearing any time soon.
With respect that is naive and almost arrogant.
I condemn the ultra brexiteers totally but they believe in their cause as much as you in the EU and they will continue, post a lost referendum, and possibly with growing support in leave areas as the EU continue to dominate the political agenda
Doesn't matter though, because we'll be in the EU, the ECJ will be able to veto A50 in the future, no government will ever again even consider embarking on this shit show, and in a few years the mostly elderly and gammon Brexiteers will all have died of old age and heart disease.
The next election, the Tory Party gets smashed by a huge strike by ex-supporters.
Corbyn comes in, wrecks the economy whilst getting us mired even further into the EU. A whole new generation comes to hate him - and the EU.
The election after that (which may not be very long), the EU dominates the agenda - and a whole new generation comes to blame the EU for the reason they have no job/house/hope....
A new anti-EU party comes in, pledging just to walk away. Gets a majority. Honours its pledge....
THAT is what the wreckers of Remain will have spawned.
lol - Politics moves very quickly these days. I think the Tories are going to take a hit anyway, so they might as well do the right thing in terms of the economy and keep the UK in the EU to stop all the problems with the economy and Northern Ireland occurring in a hard Brexit.
Brexit does NOT work, if the UK does a hard Brexit it will be a similar effect to the UK putting sanctions on its own economy for relations to the EU. I still cannot understand the sheer stupidity of the No Deal brigade, it is economic suicide. A deal would be reasonably alright but not as good as staying in the EU.
Mr. 43, I'd guess a second referendum with a choice between No Deal Leave and Remain.
Parliament isn't going to put no deal to a ballot just because a handful of millionaire MPs and a cohort of economically inactive pensioners seem to think it might be worth a try.
If they refuse to contemplate no deal, and comprehensively reject May's deal, they should have the balls to just revoke A50 without putting something to the people at all - what's the point in asking them to choose between remaining and the terrible, vassalage Brexit the Commons think is so terrible?
The only point of a second vote is to produce a democratic decision to overturn the first one, or alternatively a democratic decision to press ahead.
Yes, but as you've just noted they won;t allow no deal to go ahead. And since they will have been very clear the deal is an absolutely shit show, getting a democratic decision to reject it is either cowardly or irresponsible. Either it is not as bad as they are claiming because they want to remain so bad, or it is as bad as they are saying and yet they will do it anyway when they could avoid it. If what they claim is true the people will be happy parliament has done it.
Not having a democratic mandate hasn't stopped anyone claiming the public want to vote again and, either directly or indirectly, that they will vote remain (which is the motivation - every now and then people slip and talk about wanting a peoples vote to remain and so on, demonstrating it is not about caring about democratic mandates, but about making the correct choice).
If there is a second vote it will be deal (either this one, a tweaked this one, or an alternative one such as Norway +/- conjured up in coming weeks) or Remain. Which is what should have been in the first vote - a specific Leave proposition (or at least a general direction) versus the status quo. People who oppose the deal from the Remain side would settle for it if we had to leave - it's just for the transition anyhow so the future is still to play for - and people who oppose the deal from the Leave side are simply irreconcilable on principle to any outcome agreed with the EU.
If Westminster decides to can Brexit, it is going to be a glorious time subseuently to be a Brexiteer, as EVERYTHING that goes wrong in the UK gets blamed on the Remainers.
It will be great sport, hounding each and every one of them from office....
I don't think people are going to forget the fiasco of recent months as quickly as that. The Brexit hardnuts aren't going to be getting a hearing any time soon.
The Brexit voters will die off. Or go back to abstaining, racing whippets or pidgeons and indulging in their usual hobbies of racism and homophobia while we remainers will be working hard to pay their benefits and pensions.
You expect harmony post a remain brexit and produce bile like that
I have a suggestion to make in the national interest cut out the insult and be magnanimous if we remain you will be the victor and there will be a huge amount of reconcillation needed
I think we are long, long, LONG past the point where the Brexiteer dipshits that caused this omnishambles should expect ANY magnanimity.
That sums up you completely. However, I have faith in the decency of the general public
In the scenario I'm outlining, they can have what they voted for. They just need to overrule the ERG loons and vote in a referendum to confirm that we are leaving on the terms available. If they do that, they get:
- An end to Freedom of Movement - An end to the ECJ having direct jurisdiction over UK law - An end to the CFP - An end to the CAP - An end to paying vast sums to the EU - A smooth transition, protecting jobs - Joining a free trade area from Ireland to Turkey
All as promised by Vote Leave. No Deal, in contrast, is certainly nothing like compatible with the promises made by the Leave campaigns, who assured us again and again that it would be a smooth transition, no jobs would be lost, there would be no difficulties with customs, and the EU would sign a trade deal with us.
In any case, it's not me you need to convince. It's MPs. I'm just looking at the parliamentary numbers.
In addition I don't think the backstop is any where near as onerous or likely as people make out. The EU really, really don't want us in a CU for free for any length of time and the technological systems being suggested under Smart Border 2 by the EU would render the whole issue moot pretty quickly. The only issue with them has ben the length of time they will take to implement. Well now we have another 2 years of the transition so that is certainly enough time to get the system in place.
Those technological solutions will *never* apply on the Irish border itself but down the Irish sea.
I simply don't know how they can be overcome but technology has a habit of delivering. Can @NickP comment on some of the phyto-sanitary checks for example?
This was the stuff I was talking about Topping. It was a report commissioned by the EU themselves. At least they are trying to take this whole thing seriously even if large parts of the UK political scene do not.
I haven't argued against it at all. It reinforces the point that a technological solution is practical and desirable. Well except for you of course as you hate anything that might mean Brexit can actually proceed.
You support the backstop and you support detaching Northern Ireland from Great Britain so I'm not sure why you're so keen to believe in fantasy solutions for the Irish border.
If Westminster decides to can Brexit, it is going to be a glorious time subseuently to be a Brexiteer, as EVERYTHING that goes wrong in the UK gets blamed on the Remainers.
It will be great sport, hounding each and every one of them from office....
I don't think people are going to forget the fiasco of recent months as quickly as that. The Brexit hardnuts aren't going to be getting a hearing any time soon.
The Brexit voters will die off. Or go back to abstaining, racing whippets or pidgeons and indulging in their usual hobbies of racism and homophobia while we remainers will be working hard to pay their benefits and pensions.
You have learned so much from the problems they led to a leave vote in the first place, thank goodness you are not being complacent about there still being issues. It's not like politics is complicated in anyway, the bad guys die off and it is just that easy.
Politics is complicated, which is why it is best to leave it to professionals and experts and not hold silly referenda The problems we are facing include housing and inequality of opportunity These will not be solved by pandering to pensioners.
And you think the politicians are any more able to decide these matters than the population at large? In which case why do you trust the voters to even elect the right people to make the decisions on our behalf?
Perhaps like some of your Remainiac colleagues on here you would prefer if we returned to the Rotten Boroughs where you could be sure the 'right sort' of people got elected.
If Westminster decides to can Brexit, it is going to be a glorious time subseuently to be a Brexiteer, as EVERYTHING that goes wrong in the UK gets blamed on the Remainers.
It will be great sport, hounding each and every one of them from office....
I don't think people are going to forget the fiasco of recent months as quickly as that. The Brexit hardnuts aren't going to be getting a hearing any time soon.
With respect that is naive and almost arrogant.
I condemn the ultra brexiteers totally but they believe in their cause as much as you in the EU and they will continue, post a lost referendum, and possibly with growing support in leave areas as the EU continue to dominate the political agenda
Doesn't matter though, because we'll be in the EU, the ECJ will be able to veto A50 in the future, no government will ever again even consider embarking on this shit show, and in a few years the mostly elderly and gammon Brexiteers will all have died of old age and heart disease.
The next election, the Tory Party gets smashed by a huge strike by ex-supporters.
Corbyn comes in, wrecks the economy whilst getting us mired even further into the EU. A whole new generation comes to hate him - and the EU.
The election after that (which may not be very long), the EU dominates the agenda - and a whole new generation comes to blame the EU for the reason they have no job/house/hope....
A new anti-EU party comes in, pledging just to walk away. Gets a majority. Honours its pledge....
THAT is what the wreckers of Remain will have spawned.
Well on that time scale my good lady and I are unlikely to have any input as we will have finally passed away, as Grabcoque keeps reminding us
Dear me, no. Could easily happen in three years. Trusting you will both still be with us by then!
Or, the vote will be pulled Sunday evening and we can all get back to writing xmas cards.
Tezza can write her resignation speech instead.
Hard to see any circumstance that May resigns of her own accord.
The Conservative Party was always good at replacing their leaders when required.
Not so sure they are as ruthless as they used to be.
This is unique in some ways as there is a deadline and to replace TM requires a leadership race and member vote. In normal circumstances it would barely be over by Brexit
As someone who has respect and admiration for TM persistance and ability to achieve a middle of the road Brexit, despite unprecedented levels of critiscm and indeed misogny, I am fairly certain she will want to see this through but events could overwhelm her
Sadly for the Country, and notwithstanding TM faults, I do not see a replacement being able to take this forward without a referendum - indeed that must be heading for default position
I do fear a second referendum, and it will not be a pleasant experience or resolve the issue in the medium term, but so be it
It will never resolve the issue. It is pointless and dangerous.
I am expecting May to call a referendum if her deal is defeated in parliament.
As this seem the logic to her touring the country speaking to the public.
Also her denials at such a course of action are not to be taken literally.
Just like his article in The Guardian, it commits him to doing precisely nothing. Phrases like "will consider" and "keeping all options on the table" are completely meaningless.
Corbyn is waiting for the clock to run down and for the UK to leave without a deal, in the hope that it's a disaster and he can use the situation to force a collapsing Tory Government out of power and win a General Election. Rid of the constraints of the single market and customs union, he'd then have control of all the country's economic levers and be free to implement a socialist programme.
Corbyn is a Leaver. That is what he wants.
It may be, but the trouble for him enough in parliament are against no deal, but also against the deal, that Labour and he will have no choice soon but to stop faffing about and back a particular outcome. And given the views of his members and MPs, he may not have much choice about that at that point.
For example, a second referendum of some kind is a plausible scenario, albeit what the question would be is still confused. But if there is one, Labour will need to pick a side. Sure, they can claim to not take an official stance and he can play it cool, but 90% of his MPs will be backing remain, and the party will in effect have taken a stance anyway.
Nah, after facing down the PLP when they tried to get rid of him, what more does he have to fear from them? They're a busted flush.
The Labour rank-and-file are mostly pro-EU, but they're also mostly pro-JC. That's what his unicorn renegotiation strategy is all about: keeping them loyal. I would give you all the benefits of the EU without being in it, if only those stubborn Tories would get out of my way, he says. I *might* (but won't) back another vote if we can't get the horrid Tories to budge, he says. Trust me, he says. It is all the Tories' fault.
Run down the clock, leave, blame Tories for leaving, and try to force an election. Angry membership will blame Tories not Corbyn for leaving, then praise Corbyn to the rafters and throw the most enormous party ever if he gets into Government. .
I know that is the plan, but when May's deal is voted down on Tuesday what is going to be suggested? Yes his MPs are a busted flush when it comes to directly challenging him, but there are enough die hard remainers who will rebel to get a referendum if one is offered if he does not go for it. And it is his policy too if he cannot get a GE, so how could he not vote for a referendum if one if offered? His unicorn strategy of saying everything is on the table means if parliament actually gets to knock a couple of things off the table, only one will remain.
An excellent header from our PB Matelot. It does seem as if our boys/girls/trans will be serving alongside the EU forces, for the simple reason of aligned objectives and threats. Of course, our great victories of 1918 came about after British and Imperial forces on the Western Front were put under overall French command, and 27 years later under US strategic command. Nothing wrong or embarrassing about either key to victory.
Much as for all the froth of the Brexiteers, our final deal with the EU will look a lot like the WA. Strategic economic imperitive, as well as culture and geography all point in that direction, of close working with our continental cousins.
If Westminster decides to can Brexit, it is going to be a glorious time subseuently to be a Brexiteer, as EVERYTHING that goes wrong in the UK gets blamed on the Remainers.
It will be great sport, hounding each and every one of them from office....
I don't think people are going to forget the fiasco of recent months as quickly as that. The Brexit hardnuts aren't going to be getting a hearing any time soon.
With respect that is naive and almost arrogant.
I condemn the ultra brexiteers totally but they believe in their cause as much as you in the EU and they will continue, post a lost referendum, and possibly with growing support in leave areas as the EU continue to dominate the political agenda
Doesn't matter though, because we'll be in the EU, the ECJ will be able to veto A50 in the future, no government will ever again even consider embarking on this shit show, and in a few years the mostly elderly and gammon Brexiteers will all have died of old age and heart disease.
The next election, the Tory Party gets smashed by a huge strike by ex-supporters.
Corbyn comes in, wrecks the economy whilst getting us mired even further into the EU. A whole new generation comes to hate him - and the EU.
The election after that (which may not be very long), the EU dominates the agenda - and a whole new generation comes to blame the EU for the reason they have no job/house/hope....
A new anti-EU party comes in, pledging just to walk away. Gets a majority. Honours its pledge....
THAT is what the wreckers of Remain will have spawned.
Well on that time scale my good lady and I are unlikely to have any input as we will have finally passed away, as Grabcoque keeps reminding us
Dear me, no. Could easily happen in three years. Trusting you will both still be with us by then!
We hope so and keep taking the pills, and thank you for your kind comment
Mr. 43, I'd guess a second referendum with a choice between No Deal Leave and Remain.
Parliament isn't going to put no deal to a ballot just because a handful of millionaire MPs and a cohort of economically inactive pensioners seem to think it might be worth a try.
If they refuse to contemplate no deal, and comprehensively reject May's deal, they should have the balls to just revoke A50 without putting something to the people at all - what's the point in asking them to choose between remaining and the terrible, vassalage Brexit the Commons think is so terrible?
The only point of a second vote is to produce a democratic decision to overturn the first one, or alternatively a democratic decision to press ahead. If Remain is off the table, Parliament ought to be (and in the end probably will be) capable of deciding how to leave, and a second vote serves no purpose.
Not quite.
The only point of a second vote is to produce a decision to overturn the first one that might possibly be portrayed as democratic.
Virtually nobody calling for a second referendum actually wants one: they just want the decision changed.
If Westminster decides to can Brexit, it is going to be a glorious time subseuently to be a Brexiteer, as EVERYTHING that goes wrong in the UK gets blamed on the Remainers.
It will be great sport, hounding each and every one of them from office....
I don't think people are going to forget the fiasco of recent months as quickly as that. The Brexit hardnuts aren't going to be getting a hearing any time soon.
The Brexit voters will die off. Or go back to abstaining, racing whippets or pidgeons and indulging in their usual hobbies of racism and homophobia while we remainers will be working hard to pay their benefits and pensions.
You expect harmony post a remain brexit and produce bile like that
I have a suggestion to make in the national interest cut out the insult and be magnanimous if we remain you will be the victor and there will be a huge amount of reconcillation needed
I think we are long, long, LONG past the point where the Brexiteer dipshits that caused this omnishambles should expect ANY magnanimity.
That sums up you completely. However, I have faith in the decency of the general public
If you think remainers are on the whole content to just quietly let slide two years of needless social strife and political chaos that these utterly contemptible berks have wrought, I think you're in for a disappointment.
The Brexit Buccaneers are in the process of exposing their vacuousness and incompetence and humiliating themselves and everything they stood for. We must stand ready aid and abet their utter obliteration; to grind them into dust.
“We should forgive our enemies, but not before they are hanged” - Heinrich Heine
Or, the vote will be pulled Sunday evening and we can all get back to writing xmas cards.
Tezza can write her resignation speech instead.
Hard to see any circumstance that May resigns of her own accord.
The Conservative Party was always good at replacing their leaders when required.
Not so sure they are as ruthless as they used to be.
This is unique in some ways as there is a deadline and to replace TM requires a leadership race and member vote. In normal circumstances it would barely be over by Brexit
As someone who has respect and admiration for TM persistance and ability to achieve a middle of the road Brexit, despite unprecedented levels of critiscm and indeed misogny, I am fairly certain she will want to see this through but events could overwhelm her
Sadly for the Country, and notwithstanding TM faults, I do not see a replacement being able to take this forward without a referendum - indeed that must be heading for default position
I do fear a second referendum, and it will not be a pleasant experience or resolve the issue in the medium term, but so be it
It will never resolve the issue. It is pointless and dangerous.
I am expecting May to call a referendum if her deal is defeated in parliament.
As this seem the logic to her touring the country speaking to the public.
Also her denials at such a course of action are not to be taken literally.
In defence of politicians in such situations being creative with the truth, it could be entirely true that she has no intention of calling for one because she does indeed think it would be a bad idea (not least because it'd lose), while also recognising that when the situation changes you have to change position.
I haven't argued against it at all. It reinforces the point that a technological solution is practical and desirable. Well except for you of course as you hate anything that might mean Brexit can actually proceed.
You support the backstop and you support detaching Northern Ireland from Great Britain so I'm not sure why you're so keen to believe in fantasy solutions for the Irish border.
I support a temporary solution - the transition and possibly then the backstop - that will allow us to move forward and which can be resolved by existing technology so the backstop is not necessary.
In the long run I believe in a united Ireland if that is what the majority in both parts want. But that is a separate issue.
You simply argue vociferously and without logic against anything that might enable Brexit to happen.
If Westminster decides to can Brexit, it is going to be a glorious time subseuently to be a Brexiteer, as EVERYTHING that goes wrong in the UK gets blamed on the Remainers.
It will be great sport, hounding each and every one of them from office....
I don't think people are going to forget the fiasco of recent months as quickly as that. The Brexit hardnuts aren't going to be getting a hearing any time soon.
The Brexit voters will die off. Or go back to abstaining, racing whippets or pidgeons and indulging in their usual hobbies of racism and homophobia while we remainers will be working hard to pay their benefits and pensions.
You expect harmony post a remain brexit and produce bile like that
I have a suggestion to make in the national interest cut out the insult and be magnanimous if we remain you will be the victor and there will be a huge amount of reconcillation needed
I think we are long, long, LONG past the point where the Brexiteer dipshits that caused this omnishambles should expect ANY magnanimity.
That sums up you completely. However, I have faith in the decency of the general public
If you think remainers are on the whole content to just quietly let slide two years of needless social strife and political chaos that these utterly contemptible berks have wrought, I think you're in for a disappointment.
The Brexit Buccaneers are in the process of exposing their vacuousness and incompetence and humiliating themselves and everything they stood for. We must stand ready aid and abet their utter obliteration; to grind them into dust.
“We should forgive our enemies, but not before they are hanged” - Heinrich Heine
If Westminster decides to can Brexit, it is going to be a glorious time subseuently to be a Brexiteer, as EVERYTHING that goes wrong in the UK gets blamed on the Remainers.
It will be great sport, hounding each and every one of them from office....
I don't think people are going to forget the fiasco of recent months as quickly as that. The Brexit hardnuts aren't going to be getting a hearing any time soon.
With respect that is naive and almost arrogant.
I condemn the ultra brexiteers totally but they believe in their cause as much as you in the EU and they will continue, post a lost referendum, and possibly with growing support in leave areas as the EU continue to dominate the political agenda
Doesn't matter though, because we'll be in the EU, the ECJ will be able to veto A50 in the future, no government will ever again even consider embarking on this shit show, and in a few years the mostly elderly and gammon Brexiteers will all have died of old age and heart disease.
The next election, the Tory Party gets smashed by a huge strike by ex-supporters.
Corbyn comes in, wrecks the economy whilst getting us mired even further into the EU. A whole new generation comes to hate him - and the EU.
The election after that (which may not be very long), the EU dominates the agenda - and a whole new generation comes to blame the EU for the reason they have no job/house/hope....
A new anti-EU party comes in, pledging just to walk away. Gets a majority. Honours its pledge....
THAT is what the wreckers of Remain will have spawned.
lol - Politics moves very quickly these days. I think the Tories are going to take a hit anyway, so they might as well do the right thing in terms of the economy and keep the UK in the EU to stop all the problems with the economy and Northern Ireland occurring in a hard Brexit.
Brexit does NOT work, if the UK does a hard Brexit it will be a similar effect to the UK putting sanctions on its own economy for relations to the EU. I still cannot understand the sheer stupidity of the No Deal brigade, it is economic suicide. A deal would be reasonably alright but not as good as staying in the EU.
This assumes that no damage would be done by abandoning democracy.
If Westminster decides to can Brexit, it is going to be a glorious time subseuently to be a Brexiteer, as EVERYTHING that goes wrong in the UK gets blamed on the Remainers.
It will be great sport, hounding each and every one of them from office....
I don't think people are going to forget the fiasco of recent months as quickly as that. The Brexit hardnuts aren't going to be getting a hearing any time soon.
The Brexit voters will die off. Or go back to abstaining, racing whippets or pidgeons and indulging in their usual hobbies of racism and homophobia while we remainers will be working hard to pay their benefits and pensions.
LOL - all that post does is show your own nastiness.
In My nastiness? I'm a Remainer. Also, I'm told a Traitor, a Saboteur and a Quisling. And I'm the nasty one?
If Westminster decides to can Brexit, it is going to be a glorious time subseuently to be a Brexiteer, as EVERYTHING that goes wrong in the UK gets blamed on the Remainers.
It will be great sport, hounding each and every one of them from office....
I don't think people are going to forget the fiasco of recent months as quickly as that. The Brexit hardnuts aren't going to be getting a hearing any time soon.
The Brexit voters will die off. Or go back to abstaining, racing whippets or pidgeons and indulging in their usual hobbies of racism and homophobia while we remainers will be working hard to pay their benefits and pensions.
You have learned so much from the problems they led to a leave vote in the first place, thank goodness you are not being complacent about there still being issues. It's not like politics is complicated in anyway, the bad guys die off and it is just that easy.
Politics is complicated, which is why it is best to leave it to professionals and experts and not hold silly referenda The problems we are facing include housing and inequality of opportunity These will not be solved by pandering to pensioners.
They probably won't. Dismissing the concerns that are more popular with pensioners but which are significant minorities elsewhere though, because they are just ignorant racists, is hardly a recipe for resolving the problems we have.
And if referenda are so silly there is no need for one to correct our current course. Yes that would be hard for MPs, but if they could not countenance the outcome people at the time wanted and which they legislated to make the default option, they should not have done so and if they have to cancel it without asking the people again to ensure we avoid catastrophe they should suck it up and do it.
I think MPs should just Stop Brexit and take a hit!
Look at 2009 and MP expenses, that was a dire period for anybody going out canvassing. I mean you even got abuse off people if you were not standing in an election but knocking on doors to support other people as a candidate! It caused real rot in electoral politics but after a few years everybody forget and they get on with their lives. People who advocate Brexit say people are not getting a fair deal in the UK at the moment but the problem was UK Government austerity not anything implemented by the EU.
Immigration is still going to be a driver for some peoples votes but it has been the same for every generation in the last couple of hundred years. A vocal minority who need something to hate!
Mr. 43, I'd guess a second referendum with a choice between No Deal Leave and Remain.
Parliament isn't going to put no deal to a ballot just because a handful of millionaire MPs and a cohort of economically inactive pensioners seem to think it might be worth a try.
If they refuse to contemplate no deal, and comprehensively reject May's deal, they should have the balls to just revoke A50 without putting something to the people at all - what's the point in asking them to choose between remaining and the terrible, vassalage Brexit the Commons think is so terrible?
The only point of a second vote is to produce a democratic decision to overturn the first one, or alternatively a democratic decision to press ahead. If Remain is off the table, Parliament ought to be (and in the end probably will be) capable of deciding how to leave, and a second vote serves no purpose.
Not quite.
The only point of a second vote is to produce a decision to overturn the first one that might possibly be portrayed as democratic.
Virtually nobody calling for a second referendum actually wants one: they just want the decision changed.
I support one on the basis I think it is the only way an actual decision gets made, whatever decision that is, because parliament looks as though it will fail to do so. But most are not even very subtle about it, framing it as the chance to remain, that the people want to remain now, etc etc, not even contemplating other scenarios. It's pretty shameless in its transparency.
Or, the vote will be pulled Sunday evening and we can all get back to writing xmas cards.
Tezza can write her resignation speech instead.
Hard to see any circumstance that May resigns of her own accord.
The Conservative Party was always good at replacing their leaders when required.
Not so sure they are as ruthless as they used to be.
This is unique in some ways as there is a deadline and to replace TM requires a leadership race and member vote. In normal circumstances it would barely be over by Brexit
As someone who has respect and admiration for TM persistance and ability to achieve a middle of the road Brexit, despite unprecedented levels of critiscm and indeed misogny, I am fairly certain she will want to see this through but events could overwhelm her
Sadly for the Country, and notwithstanding TM faults, I do not see a replacement being able to take this forward without a referendum - indeed that must be heading for default position
I do fear a second referendum, and it will not be a pleasant experience or resolve the issue in the medium term, but so be it
It will never resolve the issue. It is pointless and dangerous.
Whatever your personal preference, it certainly isn't pointless.
If the eventual outcome is Remain, the point is that a people's vote gives this a legitimacy that a straightforward decision by parliament would never have, despite the arguments for the latter. Obviously a decisive margin would be better than another narrow result.
If the eventual outcome is to leave with the transitional deal, or something similar, the point is that the people will have directed their representatives to put aside their quibbling with the detail and press ahead with leaving, recognising that the shape of the future settlement is still all to play for.
If Westminster decides to can Brexit, it is going to be a glorious time subseuently to be a Brexiteer, as EVERYTHING that goes wrong in the UK gets blamed on the Remainers.
It will be great sport, hounding each and every one of them from office....
I don't think people are going to forget the fiasco of recent months as quickly as that. The Brexit hardnuts aren't going to be getting a hearing any time soon.
The Brexit voters will die off. Or go back to abstaining, racing whippets or pidgeons and indulging in their usual hobbies of racism and homophobia while we remainers will be working hard to pay their benefits and pensions.
LOL - all that post does is show your own nastiness.
In My nastiness? I'm a Remainer. Also, I'm told a Traitor, a Saboteur and a Quisling. And I'm the nasty one?
If Westminster decides to can Brexit, it is going to be a glorious time subseuently to be a Brexiteer, as EVERYTHING that goes wrong in the UK gets blamed on the Remainers.
It will be great sport, hounding each and every one of them from office....
I don't think people are going to forget the fiasco of recent months as quickly as that. The Brexit hardnuts aren't going to be getting a hearing any time soon.
The Brexit voters will die off. Or go back to abstaining, racing whippets or pidgeons and indulging in their usual hobbies of racism and homophobia while we remainers will be working hard to pay their benefits and pensions.
LOL - all that post does is show your own nastiness.
In My nastiness? I'm a Remainer. Also, I'm told a Traitor, a Saboteur and a Quisling. And I'm the nasty one?
If Westminster decides to can Brexit, it is going to be a glorious time subseuently to be a Brexiteer, as EVERYTHING that goes wrong in the UK gets blamed on the Remainers.
It will be great sport, hounding each and every one of them from office....
I don't think people are going to forget the fiasco of recent months as quickly as that. The Brexit hardnuts aren't going to be getting a hearing any time soon.
The Brexit voters will die off. Or go back to abstaining, racing whippets or pidgeons and indulging in their usual hobbies of racism and homophobia while we remainers will be working hard to pay their benefits and pensions.
You have learned so much from the problems they led to a leave vote in the first place, thank goodness you are not being complacent about there still being issues. It's not like politics is complicated in anyway, the bad guys die off and it is just that easy.
Politics is complicated, which is why it is best to leave it to professionals and experts and not hold silly referenda The problems we are facing include housing and inequality of opportunity These will not be solved by pandering to pensioners.
They probably won't. Dismissing the concerns that are more popular with pensioners but which are significant minorities elsewhere though, because they are just ignorant racists, is hardly a recipe for resolving the problems we have.
And if referenda are so silly there is no need for one to correct our current course. Yes that would be hard for MPs, but if they could not countenance the outcome people at the time wanted and which they legislated to make the default option, they should not have done so and if they have to cancel it without asking the people again to ensure we avoid catastrophe they should suck it up and do it.
I think MPs should just Stop Brexit and take a hit!
Personally I'd rather we Brexited, but relatively softly to try to accomodate as many people as possible, but if MPs are that horrified by Brexit they should do as you suggest. Or refuse to have done it in the first place, but few MPs are that brave or had little to lose by doing so. But they should show some spine. Many have clearly been waiting for a chance to remain, and should just not have triggered A50 - abstain if they felt they could not support it but recognised the public vote.
Comments
The only thing that matters is what MPs claim to believe the people want, and they have maneuvered themselves into a position where a referendum is a very likely outcome, since if they insist the people do not want no deal or deal, there are few alternatives left.
It will be great sport, hounding each and every one of them from office....
Lolza.
And less of the 'give away Pembrokeshire'. It's a jewel, and I have plans to move there.
The Conservative Party was always good at replacing their leaders when required.
Not so sure they are as ruthless as they used to be.
Every penny transferred, every penny squandered, every fat cat lunch.
The EU will be the pariah it is now but cubed.
"Cameras are currently in use on the border and checks on food standards for exports occur at factories. Customs officers and police monitor cross-border activity to counter the smuggling of people and goods. Cross-border differences in VAT and excise duties make it lucrative to smuggle fuel and tobacco. In the past, the scale of fuel smuggling was large enough to endanger the very survival of legitimate fuel retailers in Northern Ireland. As a result, measures were taken to increase the numbers of customs officials monitoring smuggling.
It is not widely known that garda (Irish police officers) routinely remove people from cross-border buses, and those removed appear mainly to be non-white. The rumour in Belfast is that bus-drivers are paid by the southern authorities to provide information on suspicious passengers. Some of this may reflect the requirements of UN resolution 1373 but more likely are the prevention of illegal immigration and smuggling."
As someone who has respect and admiration for TM persistance and ability to achieve a middle of the road Brexit, despite unprecedented levels of critiscm and indeed misogny, I am fairly certain she will want to see this through but events could overwhelm her
Sadly for the Country, and notwithstanding TM faults, I do not see a replacement being able to take this forward without a referendum - indeed that must be heading for default position
I do fear a second referendum, and it will not be a pleasant experience or resolve the issue in the medium term, but so be it
1. Unless they're proposing a referendum with no Leave option (in which case, why bother? They might as well just stop Brexit and skip straight to a General Election,) then Leave starts with a huge advantage in the campaign. Remainers appear to have no strategy beyond preaching catastrophe theories. This didn't work the first time, and this time around Leave voters are endowed with the memory of all the disasters predicted for the immediate aftermath of the original Leave vote that almost entirely failed to come to pass. The credibility of the Treasury and the Bank of England in the eyes of many voters - already low after the financial crisis - has therefore been reduced to somewhere near zero, and the second Remain campaign finds itself in the position of the Boy Who Cried Wolf. Perhaps some of their bleak assessments will be proven right next time around, but none of the people they need to convince to swap sides will believe them until this happens, by which time it will be too late.
2. The Leave campaign, on the other hand, writes itself, in the form of one single question. Just stick up huge posters with the words "Which Part Of The Word 'Leave' Do You People Not Understand," helpfully embellished with big photos of some widely-loathed Remain figures like Tony Blair, on billboards all over the country, along with an identical social media blitz. They scarcely need bother to do anything else.
3. More committed Remainers who failed to vote last time, especially amongst the young, might turn out to bolster their numbers; however, on the other hand many of the pragmatic and unenthusiastic Remainers from last time are likely to resent being asked to vote again on an issue they already believed settled, and either sit on their hands wearily or switch sides to send a message to the politicians. My guess is that, overall, the Leave voter base was more motivated the first time (they were mostly voting against something that they actively disliked, as distinct from the many people on the other side who didn't think much of the EU either, but stuck to nurse for fear of something worse,) and that they are more likely to turn out and vote the same way in a re-run. In particular, for a lot of people in safe Parliamentary seats and in poor areas, Brexit will be the first time in their lives that they felt their vote actually meant anything. Such voters will be incandescent at being ignored, and very motivated to give vent to their disgust with the politicians responsible at the ballot box.
But that is the MO of the anti-dealers. They are confusing the WA with the future deal.
I simply don't know how they can be overcome but technology has a habit of delivering. Can @NickP comment on some of the phyto-sanitary checks for example?
https://twitter.com/cabinetofficeuk/status/1071103714063237120
JESUS H. CORBETT ON A MOPED.
I suppose "Heck" sums it up well enough though.
Corbyn is waiting for the clock to run down and for the UK to leave without a deal, in the hope that it's a disaster and he can use the situation to force a collapsing Tory Government out of power and win a General Election. Rid of the constraints of the single market and customs union, he'd then have control of all the country's economic levers and be free to implement a socialist programme.
Corbyn is a Leaver. That is what he wants.
I condemn the ultra brexiteers totally but they believe in their cause as much as you in the EU and they will continue, post a lost referendum, and possibly with growing support in leave areas as the EU continue to dominate the political agenda
For example, a second referendum of some kind is a plausible scenario, albeit what the question would be is still confused. But if there is one, Labour will need to pick a side. Sure, they can claim to not take an official stance and he can play it cool, but 90% of his MPs will be backing remain, and the party will in effect have taken a stance anyway.
They've certainly done far better at keeping their members happy than May, who overwhelmingly hate her deal.
http://www.europarl.europa.eu/RegData/etudes/STUD/2017/596828/IPOL_STU(2017)596828_EN.pdf
Regardless, in the unlikely event of there being another referendum in the first place, I contend that it would have to be called by a National Government, post a generalised, Brexit-induced implosion of the political system. Such a Government would have no mandate and no program, beyond sorting out the EU situation. Either a second vote or a cancellation of Brexit by the will of Parliament would inevitably be followed, in short order, by a General Election - itself acting as a proxy for yet another referendum.
I don't think MPs have the will to smash up their own parties for the sake of doing what they want to regarding Europe, but if I'm wrong and they do then they might as well spare us the time, expense and heartache of the referendum, rescind the Article 50 notification (assuming that this is permitted by the ECJ judgement on Monday,) and then skip straight to the General Election.
I don't believe that there will be a "People's Vote," but even if I'm wrong about that then I also don't see what useful purpose it would serve.
Since that won't happen and parliament has to come up with something else, Labour will need to enact their policy and since a GE is still seen as unlikely (it's also pointless and reckless but we'll ignore that for the moment) and the Tories are unlikely to suggest Labour get to renegotiate for everyone, they will switch to referendum.
So far so good, but people will want to know which way they plan to vote in it. Even if Corbyn really does want to leave so he can do all he wants to do, he cannot avoid letting most of his party backing remain, they will do so anyway.
Why didn't we just give them a rerefendum on blue passports or something?
I have a suggestion to make in the national interest cut out the insult and be magnanimous if we remain you will be the victor and there will be a huge amount of reconcillation needed
Corbyn comes in, wrecks the economy whilst getting us mired even further into the EU. A whole new generation comes to hate him - and the EU.
The election after that (which may not be very long), the EU dominates the agenda - and a whole new generation comes to blame the EU for the reason they have no job/house/hope....
A new anti-EU party comes in, pledging just to walk away. Gets a majority. Honours its pledge....
THAT is what the wreckers of Remain will have spawned.
When it comes to countering terrorism, an EU army would be pointless.
Britain should have nothing to do with EU defence integration.
Not having a democratic mandate hasn't stopped anyone claiming the public want to vote again and, either directly or indirectly, that they will vote remain (which is the motivation - every now and then people slip and talk about wanting a peoples vote to remain and so on, demonstrating it is not about caring about democratic mandates, but about making the correct choice).
The Labour rank-and-file are mostly pro-EU, but they're also mostly pro-JC. That's what his unicorn renegotiation strategy is all about: keeping them loyal. I would give you all the benefits of the EU without being in it, if only those stubborn Tories would get out of my way, he says. I *might* (but won't) back another vote if we can't get the horrid Tories to budge, he says. Trust me, he says. It is all the Tories' fault.
Run down the clock, leave, blame Tories for leaving, and try to force an election. Angry membership will blame Tories not Corbyn for leaving, then praise Corbyn to the rafters and throw the most enormous party ever if he gets into Government.
Most members will then put all matters European on the back burner, whilst they work out important priorities such as whose property to confiscate and whether to raise the higher rate of income tax to 80% or 90%. The ones who are really committed can start campaigning for a referendum to rejoin. Which will never happen, because the electorate won't want to go through all this crap yet again, and the EU won't let us back in either. Job done.
And if referenda are so silly there is no need for one to correct our current course. Yes that would be hard for MPs, but if they could not countenance the outcome people at the time wanted and which they legislated to make the default option, they should not have done so and if they have to cancel it without asking the people again to ensure we avoid catastrophe they should suck it up and do it.
Brexit does NOT work, if the UK does a hard Brexit it will be a similar effect to the UK putting sanctions on its own economy for relations to the EU. I still cannot understand the sheer stupidity of the No Deal brigade, it is economic suicide. A deal would be reasonably alright but not as good as staying in the EU.
Perhaps like some of your Remainiac colleagues on here you would prefer if we returned to the Rotten Boroughs where you could be sure the 'right sort' of people got elected.
As this seem the logic to her touring the country speaking to the public.
Also her denials at such a course of action are not to be taken literally.
Much as for all the froth of the Brexiteers, our final deal with the EU will look a lot like the WA. Strategic economic imperitive, as well as culture and geography all point in that direction, of close working with our continental cousins.
The only point of a second vote is to produce a decision to overturn the first one that might possibly be portrayed as democratic.
Virtually nobody calling for a second referendum actually wants one: they just want the decision changed.
The Brexit Buccaneers are in the process of exposing their vacuousness and incompetence and humiliating themselves and everything they stood for. We must stand ready aid and abet their utter obliteration; to grind them into dust.
“We should forgive our enemies, but not before they are hanged” - Heinrich Heine
In the long run I believe in a united Ireland if that is what the majority in both parts want. But that is a separate issue.
You simply argue vociferously and without logic against anything that might enable Brexit to happen.
My nastiness? I'm a Remainer. Also, I'm told a Traitor, a Saboteur and a Quisling. And I'm the nasty one?
Look at 2009 and MP expenses, that was a dire period for anybody going out canvassing. I mean you even got abuse off people if you were not standing in an election but knocking on doors to support other people as a candidate! It caused real rot in electoral politics but after a few years everybody forget and they get on with their lives. People who advocate Brexit say people are not getting a fair deal in the UK at the moment but the problem was UK Government austerity not anything implemented by the EU.
Immigration is still going to be a driver for some peoples votes but it has been the same for every generation in the last couple of hundred years. A vocal minority who need something to hate!
If the eventual outcome is Remain, the point is that a people's vote gives this a legitimacy that a straightforward decision by parliament would never have, despite the arguments for the latter. Obviously a decisive margin would be better than another narrow result.
If the eventual outcome is to leave with the transitional deal, or something similar, the point is that the people will have directed their representatives to put aside their quibbling with the detail and press ahead with leaving, recognising that the shape of the future settlement is still all to play for.