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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » EU and Whose Army?
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » EU and Whose Army?
There is no subject that will more rapidly inflame the jowls of a Euroskeptic than that of the EU Army. It is often employed as the trump card that will instantly and irrevocably end all discussion of further European integration.
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I'm being oppressed by the establishment.
FPT
There is another judgment in a Brexit legal case due next week.
https://www.supremecourt.uk/cases/uksc-2018-0080.html
This is the Scottish case as to whether The UK Withdrawal from the European Union (Legal Continuity) (Scotland) Bill is within the powers of the Scottish Parliament.
Judgment is due on Thursday 13 December.
In case you're wondering what stage of Brexit we're at, it's Potato Famine II: Priti Boogaloo
https://www.thejournal.ie/brexit-threat-food-shortages-ireland-4381228-Dec2018/
Now if we can just set Vanilla the task of stealing Brexit...
[Is this really the same @Dura_Ace who posts expletive-ridden comments below the line?]
Unless you insist on doing another fiddly-diddly Eurovision entry.
It is a fine piece - but as an attempt to inject a modicum of reason into the debate, will likely be an utter failure.
https://www.ipsos.com/ipsos-mori/en-uk/six-ten-think-withdrawal-deal-would-be-bad-uk-public-cant-agree-what-should-happen-next
I disagree with this part. It's because the interests of Britain may be completely at odds with the other countries in Europe in future, so we need to keep an independent armed forces.
Yes Europe is peaceful now, but things can change very rapidly in ways we can't predict right now.
Leavers are getting hoisted by their own retard.
There is not going to be an ‘EU Army’ in the sense of a unitary force structure and forces with no chain of command back to national governments any time soon or perhaps ever.
We're gonna get a referendum between a bad deal and no brexit.
And we'll have the Brexit Buccaneers to thank for this awesome achievement.
But apart from that if our armed forces are designed and maintained to primarily operate in cooperation with other EU countries than by itself then that is by definition less independent.
It would need to include a request for A50 extension acknowledging the EU would only grant it once binding legislation for the referendum had been passed though. How desperate are Gove and all to deliver something they can pretend is Brexit?
Very comprehensive piece.
Oh, that's alright then. While 'the EU' is not a monolith, there's undoubtedly a strong faction that is desperate for it to be a nation state. Hence the calls for QMV on foreign policy, France to give up it's UN security council seat, the EU border force (though this has been rejected for now) and so forth.
I don't mind particularly; though I appreciate we've moved on from 1st Guards Shock Army barrelling through the Fulda Gap, the Continentals need to have something more than 'Ode to Joy' to deter Putin's merry band of psychopaths.
If she really does believe that her deal must pass, all else be damned, then she has nothing to lose from proposing the referendum. Yes, her party will VONC her so hard her eyes will bleed, but at least there's a chance for he deal to happen.
Not a big chance, mind. But a chance.
Though in the blizzard of storming tweetiness, it should be noted that he does have a point about the way the FBI obtained FISA warrants. (Something which is hardly confined to this case.)
It is very sad for those of us in the middle and it does look like this can only end up with a referendum on TM deal - remain and I would expect remain to win a nasty divisive campaign
If only they were anywhere near this thorough with the Clintons.
Interesting article, D-A
A real hodge podge of a strategy.
' Any evidence that 'not very bright' students get into Oxbridge?'
I suspect that until circa 1950 that was true of many of the entrants who obtained 'places' rather than Scholarships or Exhibitions.Very few Grammar School applicants were able to afford the fees associated with a mere 'place' , and as a result Oxbridge was widely seen as a Finishing School for the public schools. Many of those from feepaying schools who obtained a place in that period would be unlikely to have gained entry from circa 1960 onwards.
Parliament insisted on a say. So far the only thing they can agree on is trashing the deal. After Tuesday's vote it will be up to them to say what they do want, not what they don't want.
It's not just the public that's hopelessly split. So is Parliament, of course.
It looks very much like we're going to end up with a Hard Brexit by default, because after May's deal gets voted down there will be nothing to replace it. The Government can't change course under May, if May goes she will be replaced by a Brexiteer, and the pro-EU Tories can't repeal the EU Withdrawal Act without splitting their own party in two *and* persuading the pro-EU Labourites to do likewise. No centre-right politician will vote to put Jeremy Corbyn into No.10 regardless of the circumstances, and anyway Jeremy Corbyn is a (very thinly disguised) Brexiteer himself.
Without a friendly Prime Minister to allow their legislation to pass, pro-EU MPs are entirely impotent. All they can do is vote for non-binding motions and continue to make manifest their misery in fruitless debates.
To borrow from Dan Hodges, Parliament hasn't taken back control of the Brexit flight with its criticism of the May deal, or its impending revolt against it - it's just tied up the pilot, that's all. Nobody is at the controls now.
Absent a complete realignment of the party political system (which is theoretically possible but seems highly unlikely,) the autopilot is therefore in charge and will fly us the rest of the way to Brexitland by March. Or am I missing an obvious alternative here?
Oh, and good afternoon.
' Not very bright students get into Oxford.
For example David Miliband got in with a D and 3 Bs.
Cambridge let in Prince Charles with a B & C.'
Miliband's B grades from the early 1980s would equate to a good A grade today.
Charles took his A levels in mid-1960s - his results would easily be worth 2 A grades nowadays.
WHY WOULD YOU THINK THAT?!
As others have said, attitudes to the US alliance have been affected by Trump. It's obvious that a Corbyn government will not get on well with Trump on a variety of issues, but that's not quite the oh-my-god possibility that it would have been during the Cold War. The idea of saying as Boris did that if the US intervened in Syria we'd find it hard to refuse to join in is something that few politicians of any party would offer now.
That said, I'm not sure there's much appetite for UK involvement in European military matters either. A period of quietly ticking over is probably the best the armed forces can expect under either party, and even that would probably improve on the present situation.
Interestingly the odds on a second referendum remain unchanged.
As for mechanism, the excellent @Black_Rook (welcome back, BTW!) is right that it is awkward. But if, as I think is likely, MPs vote by a large margin for asking for an Article 50 extension and a referendum, it is hard to see the (replacement) government refusing to hold it.
Edit: Of course this is a trap which the ERG dug for themselves and then jumped into. No-one else had thought of it. It's rather pleasing.
The DUP's best outcome by far is Remain.