politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Remember this from June 23/24 2016 – the final 12 hours on the
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Remember this from June 23/24 2016 – the final 12 hours on the Brexit referendum betting markets
With Brexit totally dominating the political scene at the moment I thought it might be useful to look back to the night of June 23rd 2016 when the referendum results came in and how the betting markets reacted.
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what a day!0
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Made enough money on the referendum to make up for losing nearly every other bet I'd ever made, thanks to that overassumption on remain.0
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Well, at least the government is still trying to win the vote I guess, rather than just throwing in the towell. Sure it is wasted effort, but I appreciate the attempt.grabcocque said:DUP have categorically rejected May's wish-the-backstop-away amendment.
https://twitter.com/DUPleader/status/10707964436555653120 -
I remember it well. First all nighter I’ve ever done for an election - I came close in 2010 and 2015 but threw in the towel at around 4-4:30 each time. Had a strong hunch it was going to be leave’s night from early results, but remember the dread hit properly at about 3 in the morning. Then I was too transfixed to go to bed. The only other time was a few months later for the US election, which had a similar WTF result.
I am still very relieved that the apolcalypic predictions that were being thrown around on the night of the referendum did not come to pass. I do remember the BBC reported it in a very irresponsible fashion as if we were facing the market crash to end all crashes. Terrifying.0 -
I took myself out, more or less level, at 1 o'clock.
I collapsed into be something the worse for wear, thinking it best not to gamble.
As it happens, I would have been right; perhaps that cost me £200 (I do not think it would have been more).
Nevertheless the principle was correct, je ne regrette rien.
Edit: shoutout to AndyJS who modelled this one right, IIRC.0 -
It's one of those things that reminds us the hard way that the betting markets have access to no more information than we do.
When the information is wrong, the betting is wrong.0 -
But they are now briefing that they never really meant it anyway ha ha no that was just a little joke at the ERGs expense no of course we weren't trying to insult your intelligence why would we do thatkle4 said:
Well, at least the government is still trying to win the vote I guess, rather than just throwing in the towell. Sure it is wasted effort, but I appreciate the attempt.grabcocque said:DUP have categorically rejected May's wish-the-backstop-away amendment.
https://twitter.com/DUPleader/status/10707964436555653120 -
One of my best ever nights for betting wins thanks to the amazing @AndyJS0
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The clever thing about Corbyn's strategy is that everyone thinks he's now committed to a second referendum without his actually having had to say it.
https://twitter.com/paulmasonnews/status/10707633147272724490 -
Punters, even those like me who began with money on the wrong side, were hugely helped by the BBC (Curtice as I recall) clinging to the hope that late declarations from London could still swing it for Remain, well beyond the point when it was obvious to everyone else that the Leave margin was already too big. As it happened I didn't touch my bets during the night but did very well spreadbetting the falling £. That swing back to remain at about 0330 was the BBC's doing and the best betting/trading chance of the night.0
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A very different BBC from the Brexit-horny beast that haunts our screens these days.IanB2 said:Punters, even those like me who began with money on the wrong side, were hugely helped by the BBC (Curtice as I recall) clinging to the hope that late declarations from London could still swing it for Remain, well beyond the point when it was obvious to everyone else that the Leave margin was already too big. As it happened I didn't touch my bets during the night but did very well spreadbetting the falling £.
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+1AlastairMeeks said:One of my best ever nights for betting wins thanks to the amazing @AndyJS
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Off topic, it would be very helpful if all the other LD MPs would resign the whip and caucus with the Tories instead too.
Asking for a friend.0 -
I missed pb.com that night - I was driving across Iowa and Minnesota trying to find a US radio station that would give some results - but it seems clear from what others have said that the betting markets were slow to react to better information - ie the early results.grabcocque said:It's one of those things that reminds us the hard way that the betting markets have access to no more information than we do.
When the information is wrong, the betting is wrong.
Which is to say that betting markets can be swayed by wishful thinking and groupthink as much as other markets - and so there is money to be made by those with a clear head, strong nerves and better analysis of the information available. Plus spare money to lose when sometimes calling it wrong.0 -
I didn't say it was smart or effective.grabcocque said:
But they are now briefing that they never really meant it anyway ha ha no that was just a little joke at the ERGs expense no of course we weren't trying to insult your intelligence why would we do thatkle4 said:
Well, at least the government is still trying to win the vote I guess, rather than just throwing in the towell. Sure it is wasted effort, but I appreciate the attempt.grabcocque said:DUP have categorically rejected May's wish-the-backstop-away amendment.
https://twitter.com/DUPleader/status/10707964436555653120 -
What are the questions in Corbyn's referendum?grabcocque said:The clever thing about Corbyn's strategy is that everyone thinks he's now committed to a second referendum without his actually having had to say it.
https://twitter.com/paulmasonnews/status/10707633147272724490 -
Rumours from people going to postal vote verifications are always rubbish; if the count if done properly they won't have seen very many votes, since the verification is done with papers face down,0
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If the margin is big I suppose it makes a referendum much more justifiable if that's their new plan....0
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I agree that Andyjs spreadsheet was very, very good and I do not want to sound fawning here but Mr Smithson wrote a piece here about the trust levels of politicians on either side, Namely Bojo, Gove, Dave and The worst CoE ever.
I went on leave after this article and it was spot on. So hat tip.0 -
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Remember this thread from October 2016?
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2016/10/18/the-nearest-run-thing/0 -
Of course you would find it helpful, Mr Royale. You would like nothing better that to see politics reduced to two large blocks - one a Tory dictatorship and the other a Socialist dictatorship, and everybody forced to back one or the other.Casino_Royale said:Off topic, it would be very helpful if all the other LD MPs would resign the whip and caucus with the Tories instead too.
Asking for a friend.
It would help our democracy if all decent Conservatives resigned the Tory whip and fell in with the Liberal Democrats - who have many virtues, one of which is that they are totally opposed to all dictatorships.0 -
Incredible given how that night went down that Remainders are so confident about round two.0
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“Do we really have to have one ?”alex. said:
What are the questions in Corbyn's referendum?grabcocque said:The clever thing about Corbyn's strategy is that everyone thinks he's now committed to a second referendum without his actually having had to say it.
https://twitter.com/paulmasonnews/status/1070763314727272449
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It would help our democracy if anyone in the LDs bothered to remind the public that they still exist. It's remarkable just how bad they've floundered, despite being one of two parties (the other are the Greens) who are against Brexit.PClipp said:
Of course you would find it helpful, Mr Royale. You would like nothing better that to see politics reduced to two large blocks - one a Tory dictatorship and the other a Socialist dictatorship, and everybody forced to back one or the other.Casino_Royale said:Off topic, it would be very helpful if all the other LD MPs would resign the whip and caucus with the Tories instead too.
Asking for a friend.
It would help our democracy if all decent Conservatives resigned the Tory whip and fell in with the Liberal Democrats - who have many virtues, one of which is that they are totally opposed to all dictatorships.0 -
Every day I think oh, surely the easiest path is a vote for the Deal.
And every night I go to bed thinking the Deal hasn’t a snowball’s chance in Hell of getting through.
May looks desperate, desperate.0 -
The Omens were bad when those huge thunderstorms effected London whilst leave areas were basking in sunshine !
Not sure why people were so convinced Remain would win , there were many polls that had Leave ahead . High turnout in groups who don’t normally vote was one factor , I think people expected a late surge to the status quo which didn’t materialize .
I will never forget that night , just as I won’t forget the Trump win . Both truly horrifying depending where you sit.
Not sure I could cope with another EU ref !0 -
Agreed. Tense times.Gardenwalker said:Every day I think oh, surely the easiest path is a vote for the Deal.
And every night I go to bed thinking the Deal hasn’t a snowball’s chance in Hell of getting through.
May looks desperate, desperate.
Please gods not another referendum.
Night to all.0 -
This is a terrifying thought given you were backing the SNP in constituency betting @ 50/1 for 2015.AlastairMeeks said:One of my best ever nights for betting wins thanks to the amazing @AndyJS
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I find it very depressing that anybody could describe people voting as "truly horrifying." The people who lost should analyse the result and change their pitch and at the next vote presnet their new proposals. Or they could just stick their fingers in their ears and shout "thick racists."nico67 said:The Omens were bad when those huge thunderstorms effected London whilst leave areas were basking in sunshine !
Not sure why people were so convinced Remain would win , there were many polls that had Leave ahead . High turnout in groups who don’t normally vote was one factor , I think people expected a late surge to the status quo which didn’t materialize .
I will never forget that night , just as I won’t forget the Trump win . Both truly horrifying depending where you sit.
Not sure I could cope with another EU ref !0 -
With Remain and Deal tied on 50% each and Remain only leading No Deal 52% to 48% with YouGov today we are no closer to achieving a clear result than we were in 2016.
The only way to do so may be Deal v No Deal where Deal led 62% to 38%0 -
Sad times. Sadder times still to come.0
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As a Leaver my preference is a Canada type deal first, then no deal, Norway type deal. no Brexit and finally May’s deal.
Because HoC are a bunch of winps who care nothing for Britain but just want to get paid for doing what Brussels tells them to do, I suspect we’ll end up with no Brexit and a Corbyn Gov which is exactly what the Remoaners deserve.0 -
Deal vs No Deal offers nothing to vote for, only things to vote against. Sad to rule out a perfectly viable third option.HYUFD said:With Remain and Deal tied on 50% each and Remain only leading No Deal 52% to 48% with YouGov today we are no closer to achieving a clear result than we were in 2016.
The only way to do so may be Deal v No Deal where Deal led 62% to 38%0 -
Apologies if posted already...ralphmalph said:
I find it very depressing that anybody could describe people voting as "truly horrifying." The people who lost should analyse the result and change their pitch and at the next vote presnet their new proposals. Or they could just stick their fingers in their ears and shout "thick racists."nico67 said:The Omens were bad when those huge thunderstorms effected London whilst leave areas were basking in sunshine !
Not sure why people were so convinced Remain would win , there were many polls that had Leave ahead . High turnout in groups who don’t normally vote was one factor , I think people expected a late surge to the status quo which didn’t materialize .
I will never forget that night , just as I won’t forget the Trump win . Both truly horrifying depending where you sit.
Not sure I could cope with another EU ref !
https://twitter.com/Modern_Lockey/status/10706339418775593010 -
We won't get that though. It would not pass Parliament, and anyway, would simply not fly if the most popular first preference isn't on the paper.HYUFD said:With Remain and Deal tied on 50% each and Remain only leading No Deal 52% to 48% with YouGov today we are no closer to achieving a clear result than we were in 2016.
The only way to do so may be Deal v No Deal where Deal led 62% to 38%
It does, however, present the only conceivable way this Deal comes about, barring an emergency vote in March in the absence of owt else turning up meantime.0 -
I dont think weather makes much difference, and when turnout is up, who knows how those voters are voting. The difficulty with a referendum is that there is no canvassing to compare with previous, like DH's famous Tuesday night wobble in 2017.nico67 said:The Omens were bad when those huge thunderstorms effected London whilst leave areas were basking in sunshine !
Not sure why people were so convinced Remain would win , there were many polls that had Leave ahead . High turnout in groups who don’t normally vote was one factor , I think people expected a late surge to the status quo which didn’t materialize .
I will never forget that night , just as I won’t forget the Trump win . Both truly horrifying depending where you sit.
Not sure I could cope with another EU ref !
On here there was extensive debate how to reconcile the phone polling (generally for Remain) and internet polling (for Leave) with the incorrect consensus that phone polling was more reliable. I also think the polls were favouring Leave when the postal ballots were going in.
I was part of that incorrect consensus, but who knows whether the same factors will apply next time? A new referendum adds new ingredients to the mix, and while it all looks clear via the retrospectoscope, staring at chicken entrails before polling day is fraught with error and wishful thinking.0 -
The poll I have been waiting for and expecting. At least 62% of Northern Irish want the backstop.
https://twitter.com/EvanHD/status/10707361632736952320 -
Yes, I too owe @AndyJS multiple drinks, and @ChrisinParis for similar winnings over the French election.AlastairMeeks said:One of my best ever nights for betting wins thanks to the amazing @AndyJS
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Jack and Danni are splitting up - according to Twitter this is more important than Britain and Europe splitting up.0
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Well yes, the argument that it is a 'betrayal' of Northern Ireland to stay in something resembling the SM/CU (despite having voted remain) and just because they don't get a couple of MEPs has always been somewhat precarious.FF43 said:The poll I have been waiting for and expecting. At least 62% of Northern Irish want the backstop.
https://twitter.com/EvanHD/status/10707361632736952320 -
"Cabinet ministers demand answers as Chief Whip admits May will lose Tuesday’s vote"
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/0 -
Why would that surprise any of them? Seriously, has anyone thought May might win the vote since a couple if days after it was announced?AndyJS said:"Cabinet ministers demand answers as Chief Whip admits May will lose Tuesday’s vote"
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/
It's about principle. Either you support the deal or you don't. If you do you vote for it even if it will lose.0 -
It's potentially good news for "May's deal" if people in NI want a backstop. It means a smaller barrier to divergence from the EU, although there are problems for GB too with divergence.alex. said:
Well yes, the argument that it is a 'betrayal' of Northern Ireland to stay in something resembling the SM/CU (despite having voted remain) and just because they don't get a couple of MEPs has always been somewhat precarious.FF43 said:The poll I have been waiting for and expecting. At least 62% of Northern Irish want the backstop.
https://twitter.com/EvanHD/status/10707361632736952320 -
Which makes the case for a Deal or No Deal referendum even stronger, if Northern Ireland votes 62% for the Deal that would shut the DUP up.FF43 said:The poll I have been waiting for and expecting. At least 62% of Northern Irish want the backstop.
https://twitter.com/EvanHD/status/10707361632736952320 -
Most Remoaners are voting for Corbyn anywayAmpfieldAndy said:As a Leaver my preference is a Canada type deal first, then no deal, Norway type deal. no Brexit and finally May’s deal.
Because HoC are a bunch of winps who care nothing for Britain but just want to get paid for doing what Brussels tells them to do, I suspect we’ll end up with no Brexit and a Corbyn Gov which is exactly what the Remoaners deserve.
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Bloody hell! Pete Shelley of The Buzzcocks has died. Only 63.
I went out with the brother of Steve Diggle, the Buzzcocks’ guitarist, for a couple of years. Happy days!0 -
If Remain cannot even get above 52% against No Deal having Remain on the ballot solves zilch, Deal on the other hand trounces No Deal getting 62%Jonathan said:
Deal vs No Deal offers nothing to vote for, only things to vote against. Sad to rule out a perfectly viable third option.HYUFD said:With Remain and Deal tied on 50% each and Remain only leading No Deal 52% to 48% with YouGov today we are no closer to achieving a clear result than we were in 2016.
The only way to do so may be Deal v No Deal where Deal led 62% to 38%0 -
Presumably answers as to why he didn't know that 9 days ago?AndyJS said:"Cabinet ministers demand answers as Chief Whip admits May will lose Tuesday’s vote"
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/0 -
When the first result in Newcastle was about to be declared, I was thinking Remain needs at least 53% to be confident of victory overall. When they only got 50.7% it looked like Leave was probably going to win.0
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Remain had its chance in 2016, Remain lost. We should only be having a second referendum to decide how we Leave after Leave beat Remain in the first referendumdixiedean said:
We won't get that though. It would not pass Parliament, and anyway, would simply not fly if the most popular first preference isn't on the paper.HYUFD said:With Remain and Deal tied on 50% each and Remain only leading No Deal 52% to 48% with YouGov today we are no closer to achieving a clear result than we were in 2016.
The only way to do so may be Deal v No Deal where Deal led 62% to 38%
It does, however, present the only conceivable way this Deal comes about, barring an emergency vote in March in the absence of owt else turning up meantime.0 -
The dishonesty from Brexiteers arguing that May's deal has undermined her credibility with the public is astounding. Polling consistently shows the Deal as being viewed as the best available (brexit) option, and the most popular option when set in a first choice against either Remaining or no deal. Furthermore there is a complete lack of comprehension that what likely the public are most pissed off about is the refusal of Parliament to move towards workable solutions that don't repudiate the referendum and don't jeopardise the livelihoods of millions of people with crazy no deal gambles.
The idea that the public as a whole see May and her deal as the fundamental problem is at variance with reality IMO.0 -
Worth noting that Sabine Weyand liked that second post about the EU not renegotiating, as if it needed emphasising...CarlottaVance said:0 -
Nothing to vote for.HYUFD said:
If Remain cannot even get above 52% against No Deal having Remain on the ballot solves zilch, Deal on the other hand trounces No Deal getting 62%Jonathan said:
Deal vs No Deal offers nothing to vote for, only things to vote against. Sad to rule out a perfectly viable third option.HYUFD said:With Remain and Deal tied on 50% each and Remain only leading No Deal 52% to 48% with YouGov today we are no closer to achieving a clear result than we were in 2016.
The only way to do so may be Deal v No Deal where Deal led 62% to 38%0 -
Quite right too. If we Remain, PM Jezza has limited room for manoeuvre, and if we Leave then a People's Brexit under Jezza and John is preferable to a bonfire of rights and protections under the Tories.HYUFD said:
Most Remoaners are voting for Corbyn anywayAmpfieldAndy said:As a Leaver my preference is a Canada type deal first, then no deal, Norway type deal. no Brexit and finally May’s deal.
Because HoC are a bunch of winps who care nothing for Britain but just want to get paid for doing what Brussels tells them to do, I suspect we’ll end up with no Brexit and a Corbyn Gov which is exactly what the Remoaners deserve.
I will be voting LD or Green though.0 -
Seems that Oxford Wolvercote is a Lib Dem hold.0
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But ,but, but Precious Union. No PM could ever agree, etc.FF43 said:
It's potentially good news for "May's deal" if people in NI want a backstop. It means a smaller barrier to divergence from the EU, although there are problems for GB too with divergence.alex. said:
Well yes, the argument that it is a 'betrayal' of Northern Ireland to stay in something resembling the SM/CU (despite having voted remain) and just because they don't get a couple of MEPs has always been somewhat precarious.FF43 said:The poll I have been waiting for and expecting. At least 62% of Northern Irish want the backstop.
https://twitter.com/EvanHD/status/10707361632736952320 -
And now apparently we have Boris touring Europe comparing himself with Churchill opposing the appeasers in the 1930s. And that the UK should "do the right thing" and pursue economic ruin as a result.0
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The quickest way to end the Precious Union is No Deal and a hard border in Irelanddixiedean said:
But ,but, but Precious Union. No PM could ever agree, etc.FF43 said:
It's potentially good news for "May's deal" if people in NI want a backstop. It means a smaller barrier to divergence from the EU, although there are problems for GB too with divergence.alex. said:
Well yes, the argument that it is a 'betrayal' of Northern Ireland to stay in something resembling the SM/CU (despite having voted remain) and just because they don't get a couple of MEPs has always been somewhat precarious.FF43 said:The poll I have been waiting for and expecting. At least 62% of Northern Irish want the backstop.
https://twitter.com/EvanHD/status/10707361632736952320 -
Your argument is persuading only yourself.HYUFD said:
Remain had its chance in 2016, Remain lost. We should only be having a second referendum to decide how we Leave after Leave beat Remain in the first referendumdixiedean said:
We won't get that though. It would not pass Parliament, and anyway, would simply not fly if the most popular first preference isn't on the paper.HYUFD said:With Remain and Deal tied on 50% each and Remain only leading No Deal 52% to 48% with YouGov today we are no closer to achieving a clear result than we were in 2016.
The only way to do so may be Deal v No Deal where Deal led 62% to 38%
It does, however, present the only conceivable way this Deal comes about, barring an emergency vote in March in the absence of owt else turning up meantime.
There is no way in which a referendum will get through parliament without some Labour support, and to imagine that they will sign off on a vote between two choices they strenuously oppose is the sheerest fantasy.
If a majority in both parliament and the country would want remain on a referendum ballot paper, then your argument from principle is nonsense, too.
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They deserve himHYUFD said:
Most Remoaners are voting for Corbyn anywayAmpfieldAndy said:As a Leaver my preference is a Canada type deal first, then no deal, Norway type deal. no Brexit and finally May’s deal.
Because HoC are a bunch of winps who care nothing for Britain but just want to get paid for doing what Brussels tells them to do, I suspect we’ll end up with no Brexit and a Corbyn Gov which is exactly what the Remoaners deserve.0 -
Nothing to vote for for diehard Remainers maybe who still cannot accept they lost the first timeJonathan said:
Nothing to vote for.HYUFD said:
If Remain cannot even get above 52% against No Deal having Remain on the ballot solves zilch, Deal on the other hand trounces No Deal getting 62%Jonathan said:
Deal vs No Deal offers nothing to vote for, only things to vote against. Sad to rule out a perfectly viable third option.HYUFD said:With Remain and Deal tied on 50% each and Remain only leading No Deal 52% to 48% with YouGov today we are no closer to achieving a clear result than we were in 2016.
The only way to do so may be Deal v No Deal where Deal led 62% to 38%
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Deal is the most popular option with the public, but as you say MPs are about to vote it down by probably quite a large majority. So MPs continue to be out of touch with the public, despite everything that's happened.alex. said:The dishonesty from Brexiteers arguing that May's deal has undermined her credibility with the public is astounding. Polling consistently shows the Deal as being viewed as the best available (brexit) option, and the most popular option when set in a first choice against either Remaining or no deal. Furthermore there is a complete lack of comprehension that what likely the public are most pissed off about is the refusal of Parliament to move towards workable solutions that don't repudiate the referendum and don't jeopardise the livelihoods of millions of people with crazy no deal gambles.
The idea that the public as a whole see May and her deal as the fundamental problem is at variance with reality IMO.0 -
Not saying you're wrong but is there any polling support for this? My reading is that it represents less than half the Leave vote - the majority support crazy no-deal gambles - and maybe 1/4 of the Remain vote who care about repudiating the referendum, if that.alex. said:... what likely the public are most pissed off about is the refusal of Parliament to move towards workable solutions that don't repudiate the referendum and don't jeopardise the livelihoods of millions of people with crazy no deal gambles.
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Not as much as the kippers do!AmpfieldAndy said:
They deserve himHYUFD said:
Most Remoaners are voting for Corbyn anywayAmpfieldAndy said:As a Leaver my preference is a Canada type deal first, then no deal, Norway type deal. no Brexit and finally May’s deal.
Because HoC are a bunch of winps who care nothing for Britain but just want to get paid for doing what Brussels tells them to do, I suspect we’ll end up with no Brexit and a Corbyn Gov which is exactly what the Remoaners deserve.
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Labour have not got a clue what their 'People's Brexit' is though, if Corbyn finds himself PM having to negotiate Brexit he will be a rabbit in the headlights when his guffe of unicorns and flying pigs to hit the Tories with has to actually be implementedFoxy said:
Quite right too. If we Remain, PM Jezza has limited room for manoeuvre, and if we Leave then a People's Brexit under Jezza and John is preferable to a bonfire of rights and protections under the Tories.HYUFD said:
Most Remoaners are voting for Corbyn anywayAmpfieldAndy said:As a Leaver my preference is a Canada type deal first, then no deal, Norway type deal. no Brexit and finally May’s deal.
Because HoC are a bunch of winps who care nothing for Britain but just want to get paid for doing what Brussels tells them to do, I suspect we’ll end up with no Brexit and a Corbyn Gov which is exactly what the Remoaners deserve.
I will be voting LD or Green though.
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I would tend to agree with that. But we are past the should stage .HYUFD said:
Remain had its chance in 2016, Remain lost. We should only be having a second referendum to decide how we Leave after Leave beat Remain in the first referendumdixiedean said:
We won't get that though. It would not pass Parliament, and anyway, would simply not fly if the most popular first preference isn't on the paper.HYUFD said:With Remain and Deal tied on 50% each and Remain only leading No Deal 52% to 48% with YouGov today we are no closer to achieving a clear result than we were in 2016.
The only way to do so may be Deal v No Deal where Deal led 62% to 38%
It does, however, present the only conceivable way this Deal comes about, barring an emergency vote in March in the absence of owt else turning up meantime.0 -
Leavers have their chance next Tuesday. At the moment it looks near-certain that they will decide to reject the deal which would implement Brexit. Once they have done that, any implicit commitment by those who previously supported Remain to implement the referendum result falls away; after all, if Leavers don't want it, why should those who never wanted it but thought the referendum should be respected continue to support it?HYUFD said:
Remain had its chance in 2016, Remain lost. We should only be having a second referendum to decide how we Leave after Leave beat Remain in the first referendumdixiedean said:
We won't get that though. It would not pass Parliament, and anyway, would simply not fly if the most popular first preference isn't on the paper.HYUFD said:With Remain and Deal tied on 50% each and Remain only leading No Deal 52% to 48% with YouGov today we are no closer to achieving a clear result than we were in 2016.
The only way to do so may be Deal v No Deal where Deal led 62% to 38%
It does, however, present the only conceivable way this Deal comes about, barring an emergency vote in March in the absence of owt else turning up meantime.0 -
I am happy to see what they can come up with.HYUFD said:
Labour have not got a clue what their 'People's Brexit' is though, if Corbyn finds himself PM having to negotiate Brexit he will be a rabbit in the headlights when his guffe of unicorns and flying pigs to hit the Tories with has to actually be implementedFoxy said:
Quite right too. If we Remain, PM Jezza has limited room for manoeuvre, and if we Leave then a People's Brexit under Jezza and John is preferable to a bonfire of rights and protections under the Tories.HYUFD said:
Most Remoaners are voting for Corbyn anywayAmpfieldAndy said:As a Leaver my preference is a Canada type deal first, then no deal, Norway type deal. no Brexit and finally May’s deal.
Because HoC are a bunch of winps who care nothing for Britain but just want to get paid for doing what Brussels tells them to do, I suspect we’ll end up with no Brexit and a Corbyn Gov which is exactly what the Remoaners deserve.
I will be voting LD or Green though.0 -
Perhaps those cabinet ministers might like to consider their own lack of public support.AndyJS said:"Cabinet ministers demand answers as Chief Whip admits May will lose Tuesday’s vote"
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/0 -
Indeed.AlastairMeeks said:One of my best ever nights for betting wins thanks to the amazing @AndyJS
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No, nothing to vote for in an artificially narrow poll. No point turning out, screwed either way.HYUFD said:
Nothing to vote for for diehard Remainers maybe who still cannot accept they lost the first timeJonathan said:
Nothing to vote for.HYUFD said:
If Remain cannot even get above 52% against No Deal having Remain on the ballot solves zilch, Deal on the other hand trounces No Deal getting 62%Jonathan said:
Deal vs No Deal offers nothing to vote for, only things to vote against. Sad to rule out a perfectly viable third option.HYUFD said:With Remain and Deal tied on 50% each and Remain only leading No Deal 52% to 48% with YouGov today we are no closer to achieving a clear result than we were in 2016.
The only way to do so may be Deal v No Deal where Deal led 62% to 38%0 -
A fair bit of it is my belief, but the fact that May continues to poll pretty well despite everything, and various polling on the deal would tend to support it.edmundintokyo said:
Not saying you're wrong but is there any polling support for this? My reading is that it represents less than half the Leave vote - the majority support crazy no-deal gambles - and maybe 1/4 of the Remain vote, if that.alex. said:... what likely the public are most pissed off about is the refusal of Parliament to move towards workable solutions that don't repudiate the referendum and don't jeopardise the livelihoods of millions of people with crazy no deal gambles.
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An interesting argument.Richard_Nabavi said:
Leavers have their chance next Tuesday. At the moment it looks near-certain that they will decide to reject the deal which would implement Brexit. Once they have done that, any implicit commitment by those who supported Remain to implement the referendum result falls away; after all, if Leavers don't want it, why should those who never wanted it but thought the referendum should be respected continue to support it?HYUFD said:
Remain had its chance in 2016, Remain lost. We should only be having a second referendum to decide how we Leave after Leave beat Remain in the first referendumdixiedean said:
We won't get that though. It would not pass Parliament, and anyway, would simply not fly if the most popular first preference isn't on the paper.HYUFD said:With Remain and Deal tied on 50% each and Remain only leading No Deal 52% to 48% with YouGov today we are no closer to achieving a clear result than we were in 2016.
The only way to do so may be Deal v No Deal where Deal led 62% to 38%
It does, however, present the only conceivable way this Deal comes about, barring an emergency vote in March in the absence of owt else turning up meantime.
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Wrong, YouGov had 41% of Tory voters backing the Deal and 39% backing No Deal today and they are the governing party, barely any Tories now still back Remain and no more than a handful of Tory MPs either. Add in the DUP who backed Leave in the first place and would back No Deal and Labour Leavers like Hoey, Mann, Stringer, Field and Skinner and there is probably just about a Commons majority for a Deal v No Deal referendum if May were to consider it as a last resort.Nigelb said:
Your argument is persuading only yourself.HYUFD said:
Remain had its chance in 2016, Remain lost. We should only be having a second referendum to decide how we Leave after Leave beat Remain in the first referendumdixiedean said:
We won't get that though. It would not pass Parliament, and anyway, would simply not fly if the most popular first preference isn't on the paper.HYUFD said:With Remain and Deal tied on 50% each and Remain only leading No Deal 52% to 48% with YouGov today we are no closer to achieving a clear result than we were in 2016.
The only way to do so may be Deal v No Deal where Deal led 62% to 38%
It does, however, present the only conceivable way this Deal comes about, barring an emergency vote in March in the absence of owt else turning up meantime.
There is no way in which a referendum will get through parliament without some Labour support, and to imagine that they will sign off on a vote between two choices they strenuously oppose is the sheerest fantasy.
If a majority in both parliament and the country would want remain on a referendum ballot paper, then your argument from principle is nonsense, too.
46% only back Remain on first preferences with YouGov amongst all voters too, a majority ie 54% still back Leave whether with a Deal or No Deal
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IIRC the ITV experts were worse - repeatedly saying that they expected the later declarations to favour Remain.IanB2 said:Punters, even those like me who began with money on the wrong side, were hugely helped by the BBC (Curtice as I recall) clinging to the hope that late declarations from London could still swing it for Remain, well beyond the point when it was obvious to everyone else that the Leave margin was already too big. As it happened I didn't touch my bets during the night but did very well spreadbetting the falling £. That swing back to remain at about 0330 was the BBC's doing and the best betting/trading chance of the night.
Both BBC and ITV did have a bizarre obsession with how important the Manchester declaration would be while huge Leave wins in metropolitan councils went through without comment.0 -
I think it is how the psychology will work for lots of MPs.Nigelb said:
An interesting argument.Richard_Nabavi said:
Leavers have their chance next Tuesday. At the moment it looks near-certain that they will decide to reject the deal which would implement Brexit. Once they have done that, any implicit commitment by those who supported Remain to implement the referendum result falls away; after all, if Leavers don't want it, why should those who never wanted it but thought the referendum should be respected continue to support it?HYUFD said:
Remain had its chance in 2016, Remain lost. We should only be having a second referendum to decide how we Leave after Leave beat Remain in the first referendumdixiedean said:
We won't get that though. It would not pass Parliament, and anyway, would simply not fly if the most popular first preference isn't on the paper.HYUFD said:With Remain and Deal tied on 50% each and Remain only leading No Deal 52% to 48% with YouGov today we are no closer to achieving a clear result than we were in 2016.
The only way to do so may be Deal v No Deal where Deal led 62% to 38%
It does, however, present the only conceivable way this Deal comes about, barring an emergency vote in March in the absence of owt else turning up meantime.0 -
And David Davis is quoted as saying that a further depreciation in the £ post no deal Brexit would be no bad thing. I mean, what planet is this idiot on? All foreign goods become significantly more expensive (in addition to the tariffs that come into play) and not even any upside since any benefit to those exports that can still leave the country will be wiped out by the tariffs that would be applied to them.alex. said:And now apparently we have Boris touring Europe comparing himself with Churchill opposing the appeasers in the 1930s. And that the UK should "do the right thing" and pursue economic ruin as a result.
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I don't see why you'd rely on an indirect proxy indicator like that when you have a fair bit of actual, specific polling on the issue in question.alex. said:
A fair bit of it is my belief, but the fact that May continues to poll pretty well despite everything, and various polling on the deal would tend to support it.edmundintokyo said:
Not saying you're wrong but is there any polling support for this? My reading is that it represents less than half the Leave vote - the majority support crazy no-deal gambles - and maybe 1/4 of the Remain vote, if that.alex. said:... what likely the public are most pissed off about is the refusal of Parliament to move towards workable solutions that don't repudiate the referendum and don't jeopardise the livelihoods of millions of people with crazy no deal gambles.
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You honestly think the DUP would vote to put THIS Deal to the electorate???!HYUFD said:
Wrong, YouGov had 41% of Tory voters backing the Deal and 39% backing No Deal today and they are the governing party, barely any Tories now still back Remain and no more than a handful of Tory MPs either. Add in the DUP who backed Leave in the first place and would back No Deal and Labour Leavers like Hoey, Mann, Stringer, Field and Skinner and there is probably just about a Commons majority for a Deal v No Deal referendum if May were to consider it as a last resortNigelb said:
Your argument is persuading only yourself.HYUFD said:
Remain had its chance in 2016, Remain lost. We should only be having a second referendum to decide how we Leave after Leave beat Remain in the first referendumdixiedean said:
We won't get that though. It would not pass Parliament, and anyway, would simply not fly if the most popular first preference isn't on the paper.HYUFD said:With Remain and Deal tied on 50% each and Remain only leading No Deal 52% to 48% with YouGov today we are no closer to achieving a clear result than we were in 2016.
The only way to do so may be Deal v No Deal where Deal led 62% to 38%
It does, however, present the only conceivable way this Deal comes about, barring an emergency vote in March in the absence of owt else turning up meantime.
There is no way in which a referendum will get through parliament without some Labour support, and to imagine that they will sign off on a vote between two choices they strenuously oppose is the sheerest fantasy.
If a majority in both parliament and the country would want remain on a referendum ballot paper, then your argument from principle is nonsense, too.
Is that your 2nd or 3rd bottle of Blue Nun tonight?!0 -
I salute your indefatigability.HYUFD said:
Wrong, YouGov had 41% of Tory voters backing the Deal and 39% backing No Deal today and they are the governing party, barely any Tories now still back Remain and no more than a handful of Tory MPs either. Add in the DUP who backed Leave in the first place and would back No Deal and Labour Leavers like Hoey, Mann, Stringer, Field and Skinner and there is probably just about a Commons majority for a Deal v No Deal referendum if May were to consider it as a last resortNigelb said:
Your argument is persuading only yourself.HYUFD said:
Remain had its chance in 2016, Remain lost. We should only be having a second referendum to decide how we Leave after Leave beat Remain in the first referendumdixiedean said:
We won't get that though. It would not pass Parliament, and anyway, would simply not fly if the most popular first preference isn't on the paper.HYUFD said:With Remain and Deal tied on 50% each and Remain only leading No Deal 52% to 48% with YouGov today we are no closer to achieving a clear result than we were in 2016.
The only way to do so may be Deal v No Deal where Deal led 62% to 38%
It does, however, present the only conceivable way this Deal comes about, barring an emergency vote in March in the absence of owt else turning up meantime.
There is no way in which a referendum will get through parliament without some Labour support, and to imagine that they will sign off on a vote between two choices they strenuously oppose is the sheerest fantasy.
If a majority in both parliament and the country would want remain on a referendum ballot paper, then your argument from principle is nonsense, too.
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We will see.HYUFD said:
Wrong, YouGov had 41% of Tory voters backing the Deal and 39% backing No Deal today and they are the governing party, barely any Tories now still back Remain and no more than a handful of Tory MPs either. Add in the DUP who backed Leave in the first place and would back No Deal and Labour Leavers like Hoey, Mann, Stringer, Field and Skinner and there is probably just about a Commons majority for a Deal v No Deal referendum if May were to consider it as a last resortNigelb said:
Your argument is persuading only yourself.HYUFD said:
Remain had its chance in 2016, Remain lost. We should only be having a second referendum to decide how we Leave after Leave beat Remain in the first referendumdixiedean said:
We won't get that though. It would not pass Parliament, and anyway, would simply not fly if the most popular first preference isn't on the paper.HYUFD said:With Remain and Deal tied on 50% each and Remain only leading No Deal 52% to 48% with YouGov today we are no closer to achieving a clear result than we were in 2016.
The only way to do so may be Deal v No Deal where Deal led 62% to 38%
It does, however, present the only conceivable way this Deal comes about, barring an emergency vote in March in the absence of owt else turning up meantime.
There is no way in which a referendum will get through parliament without some Labour support, and to imagine that they will sign off on a vote between two choices they strenuously oppose is the sheerest fantasy.
If a majority in both parliament and the country would want remain on a referendum ballot paper, then your argument from principle is nonsense, too.
Your idea that the votes of the DUP could be relied on for such a thing suggest how accurate your prediction might be.
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Tourist attractions closed, football matches postponed, armoured vehicles on standby - France looks like it has serious problems.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-46476037
Its not the microcosm of privileged wealth that Roger talks about is it
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I like the argument, and hope you are correct.Richard_Nabavi said:
I think it is how the psychology will work for lots of MPs.Nigelb said:
An interesting argument.Richard_Nabavi said:
Leavers have their chance next Tuesday. At the moment it looks near-certain that they will decide to reject the deal which would implement Brexit. Once they have done that, any implicit commitment by those who supported Remain to implement the referendum result falls away; after all, if Leavers don't want it, why should those who never wanted it but thought the referendum should be respected continue to support it?HYUFD said:
Remain had its chance in 2016, Remain lost. We should only be having a second referendum to decide how we Leave after Leave beat Remain in the first referendumdixiedean said:
We won't get that though. It would not pass Parliament, and anyway, would simply not fly if the most popular first preference isn't on the paper.HYUFD said:With Remain and Deal tied on 50% each and Remain only leading No Deal 52% to 48% with YouGov today we are no closer to achieving a clear result than we were in 2016.
The only way to do so may be Deal v No Deal where Deal led 62% to 38%
It does, however, present the only conceivable way this Deal comes about, barring an emergency vote in March in the absence of owt else turning up meantime.
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While that is true* of many Leavers, it is not universally so.Floater said:
They know best you knowhoundtang said:Incredible given how that night went down that Remainders are so confident about round two.
Leavers are as thick as planks and xenophobic too - they keep telling us this.
Nonetheless a #Peoplesvote does at least give the opportunity for sanity to win. While some will be intransigent, a fair number of Leavers can switch to Remain.
*as reproducibly found in polling.0 -
Yes, they would argue strongly for No Deal in the referendum in Northern IrelandAllyPally_Rob said:
You honestly think the DUP would vote to put THIS Deal to the electorate???!HYUFD said:
Wrong, YouGov had 41% of Tory voters backing the Deal and 39% backing No Deal today and they are the governing party, barely any Tories now still back Remain and no more than a handful of Tory MPs either. Add in the DUP who backed Leave in the first place and would back No Deal and Labour Leavers like Hoey, Mann, Stringer, Field and Skinner and there is probably just about a Commons majority for a Deal v No Deal referendum if May were to consider it as a last resortNigelb said:
Your argument is persuading only yourself.HYUFD said:
Remain had its chance in 2016, Remain lost. We should only be having a second referendum to decide how we Leave after Leave beat Remain in the first referendumdixiedean said:
We won't get that though. It would not pass Parliament, and anyway, would simply not fly if the most popular first preference isn't on the paper.HYUFD said:With Remain and Deal tied on 50% each and Remain only leading No Deal 52% to 48% with YouGov today we are no closer to achieving a clear result than we were in 2016.
The only way to do so may be Deal v No Deal where Deal led 62% to 38%
It does, however, present the only conceivable way this Deal comes about, barring an emergency vote in March in the absence of owt else turning up meantime.
There is no way in which a referendum will get through parliament without some Labour support, and to imagine that they will sign off on a vote between two choices they strenuously oppose is the sheerest fantasy.
If a majority in both parliament and the country would want remain on a referendum ballot paper, then your argument from principle is nonsense, too.
Is that your 2nd or 3rd bottle of Blue Nun tonight?!0 -
Who are you talking about who's confident about round 2? The only strong Remain prediction I've seen has been from Richard Nabavi, who premises it on it being Remain vs Deal, after most of the Leave side rubbishes the Deal.houndtang said:Incredible given how that night went down that Remainders are so confident about round two.
I think Remain would be odds-on, but the polling is a little bit ambiguous, the turnout could go anywhere, and referendums are unpredictable at the best of times.0 -
I think your polling refers to people's first preferences. But when the deal is set against the extremes, the fact that it comes out on top suggests that it is not quite the abomination with the public that MPs are trying to make out.edmundintokyo said:
I don't see why you'd rely on an indirect proxy indicator like that when you have a fair bit of actual, specific polling on the issue in question.alex. said:
A fair bit of it is my belief, but the fact that May continues to poll pretty well despite everything, and various polling on the deal would tend to support it.edmundintokyo said:
Not saying you're wrong but is there any polling support for this? My reading is that it represents less than half the Leave vote - the majority support crazy no-deal gambles - and maybe 1/4 of the Remain vote, if that.alex. said:... what likely the public are most pissed off about is the refusal of Parliament to move towards workable solutions that don't repudiate the referendum and don't jeopardise the livelihoods of millions of people with crazy no deal gambles.
And is certainly not an option to be driven six foot under with a stake through its heart. As we get closer to the point of no return (and one of No deal or Remain become impossible), there are going to be a lot of people pining for that option to be reintroduced.0 -
Zero chance they'd ever let that choice get anywhere near the public. The DUP would take Remain over May's deal if it came down to it, because it means no divergence between GB & NI which is their sole red line.HYUFD said:
Yes, they would argue strongly for No Deal in the referendum in Northern IrelandAllyPally_Rob said:
You honestly think the DUP would vote to put THIS Deal to the electorate???!HYUFD said:
Wrong, YouGov had 41% of Tory voters backing the Deal and 39% backing No Deal today and they are the governing party, barely any Tories now still back Remain and no more than a handful of Tory MPs either. Add in the DUP who backed Leave in the first place and would back No Deal and Labour Leavers like Hoey, Mann, Stringer, Field and Skinner and there is probably just about a Commons majority for a Deal v No Deal referendum if May were to consider it as a last resortNigelb said:
Your argument is persuading only yourself.HYUFD said:
Remain had its chance in 2016, Remain lost. We should only be having a second referendum to decide how we Leave after Leave beat Remain in the first referendumdixiedean said:
We won't get that though. It would not pass Parliament, and anyway, would simply not fly if the most popular first preference isn't on the paper.HYUFD said:With Remain and Deal tied on 50% each and Remain only leading No Deal 52% to 48% with YouGov today we are no closer to achieving a clear result than we were in 2016.
The only way to do so may be Deal v No Deal where Deal led 62% to 38%
It does, however, present the only conceivable way this Deal comes about, barring an emergency vote in March in the absence of owt else turning up meantime.
There is no way in which a referendum will get through parliament without some Labour support, and to imagine that they will sign off on a vote between two choices they strenuously oppose is the sheerest fantasy.
If a majority in both parliament and the country would want remain on a referendum ballot paper, then your argument from principle is nonsense, too.
Is that your 2nd or 3rd bottle of Blue Nun tonight?!0 -
YouGov today had it Remain 50% Leave with Deal 50%. So about as far from odds-on as you can get!edmundintokyo said:
Who are you talking about who's confident about round 2? The only strong Remain prediction I've seen has been from Richard Nabavi, who premises it on it being Remain vs Deal, after most of the Leave side rubbishes the Deal.houndtang said:Incredible given how that night went down that Remainders are so confident about round two.
I think Remain would be odds-on, but the polling is a little bit ambiguous, the turnout could go anywhere, and referendums are unpredictable at the best of times.0 -
FPT
I was too young to vote in 1992, but I went to hustings with my mother. The Tory candidate promised he would vote against Maastricht. He voted for it, lost his seat in 1997 and subsequently endured (or is that enjoyed?) a bankruptcy.williamglenn said:
So you voted for the Maastricht treaty.Richard_Tyndall said:
My first election was 1987. I missed the 83 election by 1 month.kle4 said:
Wow, quite the list. I feel very dull only having voted LD, Independent and Conservative since 2005.initforthemoney said:
First voted in the mid-ninetiesJosiasJessop said:
For me (I think!); I first voted in 1992):
Conservative
Labour
Lib Dem
Green
Independent
Sometimes at the same visit to the polling station (e.g. locals, GE).
Basically, most parties available in my part of England aside from UKIP. And I am so glad I never soiled myself by associating myself via a vote with that party.
Have voted for:
Conservative
UKIP
Referendum Party
Lib Dem
SNP
Green
Nine Percent Growth Party
Scottish Libertarian Party
Independent
Would probably spoil my ballot if there were a general election before 29 March. Never done that before.
Wait, 'Nine Percent Growth Party'?
I voted
Conservative (Thatcher)
Conservative (Major)
Referendum Party
Conservative (A local vote for Pat Mercer)
UKIP
UKIP
UKIP
Spoilt Paper ( I refused to vote for May or UKIP and there was no one else worth supporting)0
