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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Remember this from June 23/24 2016 – the final 12 hours on the
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Remember this from June 23/24 2016 – the final 12 hours on the Brexit referendum betting markets
With Brexit totally dominating the political scene at the moment I thought it might be useful to look back to the night of June 23rd 2016 when the referendum results came in and how the betting markets reacted.
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I am still very relieved that the apolcalypic predictions that were being thrown around on the night of the referendum did not come to pass. I do remember the BBC reported it in a very irresponsible fashion as if we were facing the market crash to end all crashes. Terrifying.
I collapsed into be something the worse for wear, thinking it best not to gamble.
As it happens, I would have been right; perhaps that cost me £200 (I do not think it would have been more).
Nevertheless the principle was correct, je ne regrette rien.
Edit: shoutout to AndyJS who modelled this one right, IIRC.
When the information is wrong, the betting is wrong.
https://twitter.com/paulmasonnews/status/1070763314727272449
Asking for a friend.
Which is to say that betting markets can be swayed by wishful thinking and groupthink as much as other markets - and so there is money to be made by those with a clear head, strong nerves and better analysis of the information available. Plus spare money to lose when sometimes calling it wrong.
I went on leave after this article and it was spot on. So hat tip.
RIP
I was a fan in my youth.
https://twitter.com/gsoh31/status/1070773196184535040?s=21
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2016/10/18/the-nearest-run-thing/
It would help our democracy if all decent Conservatives resigned the Tory whip and fell in with the Liberal Democrats - who have many virtues, one of which is that they are totally opposed to all dictatorships.
And every night I go to bed thinking the Deal hasn’t a snowball’s chance in Hell of getting through.
May looks desperate, desperate.
Not sure why people were so convinced Remain would win , there were many polls that had Leave ahead . High turnout in groups who don’t normally vote was one factor , I think people expected a late surge to the status quo which didn’t materialize .
I will never forget that night , just as I won’t forget the Trump win . Both truly horrifying depending where you sit.
Not sure I could cope with another EU ref !
Please gods not another referendum.
Night to all.
The only way to do so may be Deal v No Deal where Deal led 62% to 38%
Because HoC are a bunch of winps who care nothing for Britain but just want to get paid for doing what Brussels tells them to do, I suspect we’ll end up with no Brexit and a Corbyn Gov which is exactly what the Remoaners deserve.
https://twitter.com/Modern_Lockey/status/1070633941877559301
It does, however, present the only conceivable way this Deal comes about, barring an emergency vote in March in the absence of owt else turning up meantime.
On here there was extensive debate how to reconcile the phone polling (generally for Remain) and internet polling (for Leave) with the incorrect consensus that phone polling was more reliable. I also think the polls were favouring Leave when the postal ballots were going in.
I was part of that incorrect consensus, but who knows whether the same factors will apply next time? A new referendum adds new ingredients to the mix, and while it all looks clear via the retrospectoscope, staring at chicken entrails before polling day is fraught with error and wishful thinking.
https://twitter.com/EvanHD/status/1070736163273695232
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/
It's about principle. Either you support the deal or you don't. If you do you vote for it even if it will lose.
I went out with the brother of Steve Diggle, the Buzzcocks’ guitarist, for a couple of years. Happy days!
The idea that the public as a whole see May and her deal as the fundamental problem is at variance with reality IMO.
I will be voting LD or Green though.
There is no way in which a referendum will get through parliament without some Labour support, and to imagine that they will sign off on a vote between two choices they strenuously oppose is the sheerest fantasy.
If a majority in both parliament and the country would want remain on a referendum ballot paper, then your argument from principle is nonsense, too.
Con 404
Lab 162
Green 86
Well, apart from the Spanish and French who just can't seem to help themselves.
46% only back Remain on first preferences with YouGov amongst all voters too, a majority ie 54% still back Leave whether with a Deal or No Deal
Both BBC and ITV did have a bizarre obsession with how important the Manchester declaration would be while huge Leave wins in metropolitan councils went through without comment.
Leavers are as thick as planks and xenophobic too - they keep telling us this.
Is that your 2nd or 3rd bottle of Blue Nun tonight?!
Your idea that the votes of the DUP could be relied on for such a thing suggest how accurate your prediction might be.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-46476037
Its not the microcosm of privileged wealth that Roger talks about is it
Nonetheless a #Peoplesvote does at least give the opportunity for sanity to win. While some will be intransigent, a fair number of Leavers can switch to Remain.
*as reproducibly found in polling.
I think Remain would be odds-on, but the polling is a little bit ambiguous, the turnout could go anywhere, and referendums are unpredictable at the best of times.
And is certainly not an option to be driven six foot under with a stake through its heart. As we get closer to the point of no return (and one of No deal or Remain become impossible), there are going to be a lot of people pining for that option to be reintroduced.