politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The chances of the UK leaving the EU on March 29th are surely

Beverley_C said:

Benpointer said:

I similarly baulk at lazy comments often heard (not necessarily from you) about Brexit being the 'will of the people' (no, it was the will of 52% of the people), ...

Actually, it was the will of 37% of "The People". Brexit was 52% of those who bothered to vote. A large fraction of "The People" could not be bothered getting off their backsides to vote.

Yep, that's a very good point. Cue a tiresome riposte from Sunil.

https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1069909944345026560

Benpointer said:

tlg86 said:

paulyork64 said:

Pulpstar said:

paulyork64 said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/pppolitics/status/1069903876114001920

That 7/1 now 5/1.

They put the price up, restrict me to pennies then reduce it after I bet.

You move markets.

What we should do is get him to bet on the opposite side of what he thinks is value, the price drifts in a favourable direction and the rest of us with unrestricted accounts pile in.

Mmmm... I wonder why no one has ever thought of market manipulation before?

The thing is, if a bookie doesn't back it's odds setters more than it trusts certain punters (rather than volume of money), then they really are leaving themselves open to abuse.

TGOHF said:

The govt should have outsourced no deal to the private sector.

I'd trust Tesco's to get lettuce from outside the EU in via Southampton more that I would Chris Grayling.

Er.... isn't that the default if the government does nothing?

[3/3]
The odds given to each step there are your own best guess.
For what it's worth, my best guess (when putting wet-finger estimates to the numbers) is:

Deal passes Parliament eventually and may include cosmetic or even minor substantive changes (but not to the point of making it Norway+CU): 50%-60%
General Election in the New Year: 10-15%
Referendum in the New Year: 10-15%
Norway+CU alternative Deal: 10%
No Deal: 5-10%

If a Referendum, 50% Remain, 50% Deal.
If a GE, God only knows, but probably Leave With Deal. Potential Referendum after the GE (believe it or not) if Labour wins, with similar Deal (plus CU but not Norway)

So, overall, my best guess of where we end up:
Leave with Deal, eventually (possibly with CU): 75%
Leave with Norway+CU: 10%
Leave with No Deal: 5-10%
Remain: 5-10%

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/pppolitics/status/1069910267327320065

I think she well get >200 but 6/1 for 199 or less looks good odds - the rest, not so much.

Pulpstar said:

eek said:

Pulpstar said:

paulyork64 said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/pppolitics/status/1069903876114001920

That 7/1 now 5/1.

They put the price up, restrict me to pennies then reduce it after I bet.

I got £25 but I think it's years since I last bet at Paddypower.

It seems unlikely.

But then again so do all the other options.

I'm thinking it's the easiest way for things to be done and dusted before Christmas as it makes the meaningful vote meaningful.

We know that no-deal isn't an option - today's stories about rationing make that awfully clear. So what we are left with is May's Deal or remain and it's perfectly possible to argue that if the meaningful vote reject's May's Deal they are asking to remain and for A50 to be revoked.

Yes the ERG will howl and scream forever and Parliament would have rejected the will of the people but it would no longer be the Government's problem it would belong to MP's...

I am very sympathetic to those who have concerns about some aspects of the EU’s approach and direction of travel. I am not a Eurofanatic by any means.

But we have now had two and a half years since the referendum to see for ourselves that those on the Leave side and those who have embraced the cause (Mrs May) do not have a clue about how to Leave nor what to do once we have left. To proceed as we are doing is putting us on a risky course at a time when there are other serious risks in the world, both economic and political, which have become graver than they were in 2016. Britain in 2019 is not like Britain in 1815 or Britain at the time of the Seven Years War. There are opportunities but we are not going to bestride the world shaping it to our will. We need to think about the world now not as we we would like it to be.

A grown up country, a grown up leadership would take stock and ask itself whether it wants to to go ahead. I think we should do this and soon - and if this Advocate-General’s opinion is followed - it provides us with a face-saving way of doing so.

Shouting “will of the people” is not an answer. Saying to the people “ we and you now know the reality of what leave might mean, which we did not know at the time of the referendum” and so we are revisiting the decision is, IMO, living up to our responsibilities not shirking them.

And if we decide to Remain, then we have an obligation to rethink our approach to what it means being a member of the EU, to what Britain’s role in the world should be. We could contribute a great deal if we stopped behaving so often like that Harry Enfield character muttering in the corner “I wouldn’t do it like that, if I were you”. We have been taught a brutal lesson about the limits of our power and about the changed realities of the world but if we, if our political class are wise we can use those harsh lessons for our benefit.

We have also been taught some tough lessons about the concerns of many in our country. We should act on those lessons. We need to think very much harder about sharing the fruits of our economy more fairly and more widely and sharing the costs more equally. We need fresh thinking all round. Whether we will get it with our current crop of politicians repeating tired old soundbites or serving up reheated failed old policies I doubt. But there is an opportunity here, if we could just see it and be brave and seize it.

TGOHF said:

Would bring tear to a glass eye. How will Britain cope without these HGVs filling up our motorways ?


https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/post-brexit-shipping-routes-would-mean-spoiled-irish-food-1.3589873

"Proposed new shipping routes from the Republic to Belgium and the Netherlands after Brexit would increase transit times more than threefold, meaning Irish food would be spoiled before reaching the continent, hauliers have said.

About 80 per cent of all Irish goods exported to continental Europe go via the Channel Tunnel between England and France. Concerns have already been raised for Irish exports over long delays at the land bridge due to additional customs checks after Brexit."

No deal Brexit it is

Scott_P said:

TGOHF said:

Scott thinks that HGVs travelling the length of Europe and onward into Britain, thundering accross our countryside to collect Irish goods is a good thing.

You don't think free trade is a good thing?

Wow

Free trade is a good thing.

Having our motorways clogged up by hauliers for a hostile third party nation that aren't trading with us isn't.

Cyclefree said:

I am very sympathetic to those who have concerns about some aspects of the EU’s approach and direction of travel. I am not a Eurofanatic by any means.

But we have now had two and a half years since the referendum to see for ourselves that those on the Leave side and those who have embraced the cause (Mrs May) do not have a clue about how to Leave nor what to do once we have left. To proceed as we are doing is putting us on a risky course at a time when there are other serious risks in the world, both economic and political, which have become graver than they were in 2016. Britain in 2019 is not like Britain in 1815 or Britain at the time of the Seven Years War. There are opportunities but we are not going to bestride the world shaping it to our will. We need to think about the world now not as we we would like it to be.

A grown up country, a grown up leadership would take stock and ask itself whether it wants to to go ahead. I think we should do this and soon - and if this Advocate-General’s opinion is followed - it provides us with a face-saving way of doing so.

Shouting “will of the people” is not an answer. Saying to the people “ we and you now know the reality of what leave might mean, which we did not know at the time of the referendum” and so we are revisiting the decision is, IMO, living up to our responsibilities not shirking them.

And if we decide to Remain, then we have an obligation to rethink our approach to what it means being a member of the EU, to what Britain’s role in the world should be. We could contribute a great deal if we stopped behaving so often like that Harry Enfield character muttering in the corner “I wouldn’t do it like that, if I were you”. We have been taught a brutal lesson about the limits of our power and about the changed realities of the world but if we, if our political class are wise we can use those harsh lessons for our benefit.

We have also been taught some tough lessons about the concerns of many in our country. We should act on those lessons. We need to think very much harder about sharing the fruits of our economy more fairly and more widely and sharing the costs more equally. We need fresh thinking all round. Whether we will get it with our current crop of politicians repeating tired old soundbites or serving up reheated failed old policies I doubt. But there is an opportunity here, if we could just see it and be brave and seize it.

You'd have a better point if leavers have been in charge. Instead control has been taken by Remainers May and Robbins who have frustrated and stymied any Leavers.

Put leavers in charge and even see if they don't know what they are talking about.

Philip_Thompson said:

Put leavers in charge and even see if they don't know what they are talking about.

Johnson was ForSec for two years, and Davis ditto BrexSec.

Both were hopeless beyond belief.

AllyPally_Rob said:

GIN1138 said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/JamesERothwell/status/1069904009539010561

Is Jezz still making a fuss about going on BBC?

They should withdraw the offer to Corbyn and ask Farage instead...

To be fair Jezza has agreed to the ITV format which is a simple head to head with just a moderator.

The BBC format is a total pigs ear including opening statements, closing statements and a panel of experts for some reason, they'll probably chuck in the mad Newsnight vicar aswell!

I can't say I am enthusiastic about seeing the two of them debate regardless, but if they're going to do it they should go with the straightforward ITV format. Corbyn should stick to his guns on this.

Well, it would be a laugh whatever, seeing these two titans debating, but looks like it aint gonna happen.

Frankly a waste of time as no member of the public can vote anyway.

May may be pulling the whole vote anyway in a day or two, once she realises how bad the numbers are.

Philip_Thompson said:

Cyclefree said:

I am very sympathetic to those who have concerns about some aspects of the EU’s approach and direction of travel. I am not a Eurofanatic by any means.

But we have now had two and a half years since the referendum to see for ourselves that those on the Leave side and those who have embraced the cause (Mrs May) do not have a clue about how to Leave nor what to do once we have left.

[Snipped]

A grown up country, a grown up leadership would take stock and ask itself whether it wants to to go ahead. I think we should do this and soon - and if this Advocate-General’s opinion is followed - it provides us with a face-saving way of doing so.

Shouting “will of the people” is not an answer. Saying to the people “ we and you now know the reality of what leave might mean, which we did not know at the time of the referendum” and so we are revisiting the decision is, IMO, living up to our responsibilities not shirking them.

And if we decide to Remain, then we have an obligation to rethink our approach to what it means being a member of the EU, to what Britain’s role in the world should be. We could contribute a great deal if we stopped behaving so often like that Harry Enfield character muttering in the corner “I wouldn’t do it like that, if I were you”. We have been taught a brutal lesson about the limits of our power and about the changed realities of the world but if we, if our political class are wise we can use those harsh lessons for our benefit.

We have also been taught some tough lessons about the concerns of many in our country. We should act on those lessons. We need to think very much harder about sharing the fruits of our economy more fairly and more widely and sharing the costs more equally. We need fresh thinking all round. Whether we will get it with our current crop of politicians repeating tired old soundbites or serving up reheated failed old policies I doubt. But there is an opportunity here, if we could just see it and be brave and seize it.

You'd have a better point if leavers have been in charge. Instead control has been taken by Remainers May and Robbins who have frustrated and stymied any Leavers.

Put leavers in charge and even see if they don't know what they are talking about.

That is, if I may say so politely, rubbish. May embraced Brexit and defined it in the way best calculated to get Tory leavers supporting her. She appointed Leavers to the main three departments and they failed. Blaming one civil servant for the mess the government and leavers have made of this project is unjustifiable and, frankly, distasteful. Politicians need to take responsibility not blame others. Pretty much everything Davis, Johnson, Fox and others have said has turned out to be wrong, flawed or incoherent. That is their fault not that of Mr Robbins.

TGOHF said:

Scott_P said:

TGOHF said:

Scott thinks that HGVs travelling the length of Europe and onward into Britain, thundering accross our countryside to collect Irish goods is a good thing.

You don't think free trade is a good thing?

Wow

I don't think Southern England being used as a virtually free road bridge for trade between Ireland and the EU is much of a benefit.

Should tax each HGV £1000 a trip.

Irish hauliers pay 4.5 million euro per year to use UK roads

TGOHF said:

AlastairMeeks said:

TGOHF said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Scott_P said:

TGOHF said:

Scott thinks that HGVs travelling the length of Europe and onward into Britain, thundering accross our countryside to collect Irish goods is a good thing.

You don't think free trade is a good thing?

Wow

Free trade is a good thing.

Having our motorways clogged up by hauliers for a hostile third party nation that aren't trading with us isn't.

"hostile"

"Freeloading" would also work.

Perhaps a class action by the Uk public against the ROI for the pollution and poor health caused by their gas guzzling HGV's would be welcome ?

And Leavers wonder why non-cultists think they're completely unhinged.

You are in favour of HGV's ploughing through the nation, giving children asthma just for the benefit of fatcat Irish producers ?

Are you in favour of British HGVs being subject to similar actions in other countries?

It appears that you have been breathing in a few too many leaded fumes yourself.

DanSmith said:

https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1069913925427363840

This feels like the most significant thing that will happen today.

Good news by the look of it

ReggieCide said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

TGOHF said:

Scott_P said:

TGOHF said:

Scott thinks that HGVs travelling the length of Europe and onward into Britain, thundering accross our countryside to collect Irish goods is a good thing.

You don't think free trade is a good thing?

Wow

I don't think Southern England being used as a virtually free road bridge for trade between Ireland and the EU is much of a benefit.

Should tax each HGV £1000 a trip.

Irish hauliers pay 4.5 million euro per year to use UK roads

each? - peanuts otherwise

Not really. They pay a levy of £10 a day for every day or part of day they drive in the UK. It applies to all foreign vehicles over a weight limit and is a similar rate for UK drivers in other EU countries. It seems both a reasonable system and a reasonable rate.

TGOHF said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Scott_P said:

TGOHF said:

Scott thinks that HGVs travelling the length of Europe and onward into Britain, thundering accross our countryside to collect Irish goods is a good thing.

You don't think free trade is a good thing?

Wow

Free trade is a good thing.

Having our motorways clogged up by hauliers for a hostile third party nation that aren't trading with us isn't.

"hostile"

My head has just disappeared in my hands again.

Suggesting Ireland is a hostile nation is very sad

The nation may not be but their current President is.

No he isn’t. He is doing the best, as he sees it, for his nation. He may be going about in in a cack-handed way but Britain is hardly in a position to make that accusation about other countries, is it?

Cyclefree said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Cyclefree said:

I am very sympathetic to those who have concerns about some aspects of the EU’s approach and direction of travel. I am not a Eurofanatic by any means.



[Snipped]

A grown up country, a grown up leadership would take stock and ask itself whether it wants to to go ahead. I think we should do this and soon - and if this Advocate-General’s opinion is followed - it provides us with a face-saving way of doing so.

Shouting “will of the people” is not an answer. Saying to the people “ we and you now know the reality of what leave might mean, which we did not know at the time of the referendum” and so we are revisiting the decision is, IMO, living up to our responsibilities not shirking them.

And if we decide to Remain, then we have an obligation to rethink our approach to what it means being a member of the EU, to what Britain’s role in the world should be. We could contribute a great deal if we stopped behaving so often like that Harry Enfield character muttering in the corner “I wouldn’t do it like that, if I were you”. We have been taught a brutal lesson about the limits of our power and about the changed realities of the world but if we, if our political class are wise we can use those harsh lessons for our benefit.

We have also been taught some tough lessons about the concerns of many in our country. We should act on those lessons. We need to think very much harder about sharing the fruits of our economy more fairly and more widely and sharing the costs more equally. We need fresh thinking all round. Whether we will get it with our current crop of politicians repeating tired old soundbites or serving up reheated failed old policies I doubt. But there is an opportunity here, if we could just see it and be brave and seize it.

You'd have a better point if leavers have been in charge. Instead control has been taken by Remainers May and Robbins who have frustrated and stymied any Leavers.

Put leavers in charge and even see if they don't know what they are talking about.

That is, if I may say so politely, rubbish. May embraced Brexit and defined it in the way best calculated to get Tory leavers supporting her. She appointed Leavers to the main three departments and they failed. Blaming one civil servant for the mess the government and leavers have made of this project is unjustifiable and, frankly, distasteful. Politicians need to take responsibility not blame others. Pretty much everything Davis, Johnson, Fox and others have said has turned out to be wrong, flawed or incoherent. That is their fault not that of Mr Robbins.

Well said

Big_G_NorthWales said:

AllyPally_Rob said:

GIN1138 said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/JamesERothwell/status/1069904009539010561

Is Jezz still making a fuss about going on BBC?

They should withdraw the offer to Corbyn and ask Farage instead...

To be fair Jezza has agreed to the ITV format which is a simple head to head with just a moderator.

The BBC format is a total pigs ear including opening statements, closing statements and a panel of experts for some reason, they'll probably chuck in the mad Newsnight vicar aswell!

I can't say I am enthusiastic about seeing the two of them debate regardless, but if they're going to do it they should go with the straightforward ITV format. Corbyn should stick to his guns on this.

He is frightened of examination by a panel.!!!! And he wants to be PM

This is not a protest march

Or it's maybe just that the proposed process is too complicated for him - he's not known, like many of his "socialist" peers, for his grip on detail.

AllyPally_Rob said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

AllyPally_Rob said:

GIN1138 said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/JamesERothwell/status/1069904009539010561

Is Jezz still making a fuss about going on BBC?

They should withdraw the offer to Corbyn and ask Farage instead...

To be fair Jezza has agreed to the ITV format which is a simple head to head with just a moderator.

The BBC format is a total pigs ear including opening statements, closing statements and a panel of experts for some reason, they'll probably chuck in the mad Newsnight vicar aswell!

I can't say I am enthusiastic about seeing the two of them debate regardless, but if they're going to do it they should go with the straightforward ITV format. Corbyn should stick to his guns on this.

He is frightened of examination by a panel.!!!! And he wants to be PM

This is not a protest march

Oh come on don't be daft. They're both pants when it comes to debating but the original BBC proposal had a 20 strong panel, including members of the public?! Have you not seen BBC Question Time recently??!

https://twitter.com/alexwickham/status/1068539467106013185

Never watch it

Great there is clarity on A50. We can revoke it if we want. That gives us an additional option and a clear route to remain if we choose.

Richard_Tyndall said:

ReggieCide said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

TGOHF said:

Scott_P said:

TGOHF said:

Scott thinks that HGVs travelling the length of Europe and onward into Britain, thundering accross our countryside to collect Irish goods is a good thing.

You don't think free trade is a good thing?

Wow

I don't think Southern England being used as a virtually free road bridge for trade between Ireland and the EU is much of a benefit.

Should tax each HGV £1000 a trip.

Irish hauliers pay 4.5 million euro per year to use UK roads

each? - peanuts otherwise

Not really. They pay a levy of £10 a day for every day or part of day they drive in the UK. It applies to all foreign vehicles over a weight limit and is a similar rate for UK drivers in other EU countries. It seems both a reasonable system and a reasonable rate.

still peanuts for all goods on our (and Europe's) roads when much of it can go by rail (?)

TGOHF said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

TGOHF said:

AlastairMeeks said:

TGOHF said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Scott_P said:

TGOHF said:

Scott thinks that HGVs travelling the length of Europe and onward into Britain, thundering accross our countryside to collect Irish goods is a good thing.

You don't think free trade is a good thing?

Wow

Free trade is a good thing.

Having our motorways clogged up by hauliers for a hostile third party nation that aren't trading with us isn't.

"hostile"

"Freeloading" would also work.

Perhaps a class action by the Uk public against the ROI for the pollution and poor health caused by their gas guzzling HGV's would be welcome ?

And Leavers wonder why non-cultists think they're completely unhinged.

You are in favour of HGV's ploughing through the nation, giving children asthma just for the benefit of fatcat Irish producers ?

You do realise that Irish hauliers are the lifeblood of the North Wales economy and specifically the port of Holyhead. Try selling that to the voters on Anglesey

A few Welsh jobs serving cups of tea to drivers doesn't compensate for the costs of the diesel fumes and road damage caused, nevermind the losses due to a congested Uk motorway network.

Divert them all via Roscoff ...

I am speechless at such nonsense

TGOHF said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

TGOHF said:

AlastairMeeks said:

TGOHF said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Scott_P said:

TGOHF said:

Scott thinks that HGVs travelling the length of Europe and onward into Britain, thundering accross our countryside to collect Irish goods is a good thing.

You don't think free trade is a good thing?

Wow

Free trade is a good thing.

Having our motorways clogged up by hauliers for a hostile third party nation that aren't trading with us isn't.

"hostile"

"Freeloading" would also work.

Perhaps a class action by the Uk public against the ROI for the pollution and poor health caused by their gas guzzling HGV's would be welcome ?

And Leavers wonder why non-cultists think they're completely unhinged.

You are in favour of HGV's ploughing through the nation, giving children asthma just for the benefit of fatcat Irish producers ?

You do realise that Irish hauliers are the lifeblood of the North Wales economy and specifically the port of Holyhead. Try selling that to the voters on Anglesey

A few Welsh jobs serving cups of tea to drivers doesn't compensate for the costs of the diesel fumes and road damage caused, nevermind the losses due to a congested Uk motorway network.

Divert them all via Roscoff ...

Gosh, that was a very quick cost-benefit analysis.

AlastairMeeks said:

Cyclefree said:

Philip_Thompson said:

You'd have a better point if leavers have been in charge. Instead control has been taken by Remainers May and Robbins who have frustrated and stymied any Leavers.

Put leavers in charge and even see if they don't know what they are talking about.

That is, if I may say so politely, rubbish. May embraced Brexit and defined it in the way best calculated to get Tory leavers supporting her. She appointed Leavers to the main three departments and they failed. Blaming one civil servant for the mess the government and leavers have made of this project is unjustifiable and, frankly, distasteful. Politicians need to take responsibility not blame others. Pretty much everything Davis, Johnson, Fox and others have said has turned out to be wrong, flawed or incoherent. That is their fault not that of Mr Robbins.

All good points. Additionally, the foamers were complaining a couple of years ago that Remain supporters were standing back and leaving all the heavy lifting to Leavers, and arguing that they should instead but putting their shoulders to the wheel, their noses to the grindstone etc etc.

Fast forward two years and all the Remainers who did try to make the best of it are - entirely predictably - being blamed for not having been able to overcome the inherent flaws in the project. Simultaneously, all the Remainers who continued to stand aside are still being accused of perfidy and treachery.

It turns out that Leavers can have their cake and eat it after all.

Fair comment.

Big_G_NorthWales said:

TGOHF said:

AlastairMeeks said:

TGOHF said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Scott_P said:

TGOHF said:

Scott thinks that HGVs travelling the length of Europe and onward into Britain, thundering accross our countryside to collect Irish goods is a good thing.

You don't think free trade is a good thing?

Wow

Free trade is a good thing.

Having our motorways clogged up by hauliers for a hostile third party nation that aren't trading with us isn't.

"hostile"

"Freeloading" would also work.

Perhaps a class action by the Uk public against the ROI for the pollution and poor health caused by their gas guzzling HGV's would be welcome ?

And Leavers wonder why non-cultists think they're completely unhinged.

You are in favour of HGV's ploughing through the nation, giving children asthma just for the benefit of fatcat Irish producers ?

You do realise that Irish hauliers are the lifeblood of the North Wales economy and specifically the port of Holyhead. Try selling that to the voters on Anglesey

If things are that desperate, couldn't we top up the Welsh subsidy by £10 a day?

Big_G_NorthWales said:

AllyPally_Rob said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

AllyPally_Rob said:

GIN1138 said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/JamesERothwell/status/1069904009539010561

Is Jezz still making a fuss about going on BBC?

They should withdraw the offer to Corbyn and ask Farage instead...

To be fair Jezza has agreed to the ITV format which is a simple head to head with just a moderator.

The BBC format is a total pigs ear including opening statements, closing statements and a panel of experts for some reason, they'll probably chuck in the mad Newsnight vicar aswell!

I can't say I am enthusiastic about seeing the two of them debate regardless, but if they're going to do it they should go with the straightforward ITV format. Corbyn should stick to his guns on this.

He is frightened of examination by a panel.!!!! And he wants to be PM

This is not a protest march

Oh come on don't be daft. They're both pants when it comes to debating but the original BBC proposal had a 20 strong panel, including members of the public?! Have you not seen BBC Question Time recently??!

https://twitter.com/alexwickham/status/1068539467106013185

Never watch it

Well take my word for it, it's atrocious. A night out in Rhyl would be preferable to staying in and watching QT. This debate would be worse.

Cyclefree said:

I am very sympathetic to those who have concerns about some aspects of the EU’s approach and direction of travel. I am not a Eurofanatic by any means.

But we have now had two and a half years since the referendum to see for ourselves that those on the Leave side and those who have embraced the cause (Mrs May) do not have a clue about how to Leave nor what to do once we have left. To proceed as we are doing is putting us on a risky course at a time when there are other serious risks in the world, both economic and political, which have become graver than they were in 2016. Britain in 2019 is not like Britain in 1815 or Britain at the time of the Seven Years War. There are opportunities but we are not going to bestride the world shaping it to our will. We need to think about the world now not as we we would like it to be.

A grown up country, a grown up leadership would take stock and ask itself whether it wants to to go ahead. I think we should do this and soon - and if this Advocate-General’s opinion is followed - it provides us with a face-saving way of doing so.

Shouting “will of the people” is not an answer. Saying to the people “ we and you now know the reality of what leave might mean, which we did not know at the time of the referendum” and so we are revisiting the decision is, IMO, living up to our responsibilities not shirking them.

And if we decide to Remain, then we have an obligation to rethink our approach to what it means being a member of the EU, to what Britain’s role in the world should be. We could contribute a great deal if we stopped behaving so often like that Harry Enfield character muttering in the corner “I wouldn’t do it like that, if I were you”. We have been taught a brutal lesson about the limits of our power and about the changed realities of the world but if we, if our political class are wise we can use those harsh lessons for our benefit.

We have also been taught some tough lessons about the concerns of many in our country. We should act on those lessons. We need to think very much harder about sharing the fruits of our economy more fairly and more widely and sharing the costs more equally. We need fresh thinking all round. Whether we will get it with our current crop of politicians repeating tired old soundbites or serving up reheated failed old policies I doubt. But there is an opportunity here, if we could just see it and be brave and seize it.

If Brexit does get overturned, I expect the outcome will be that we will remain very unhappy members, electing even more anti-EU MEPs.

Mr. Jonathan, point of order: there isn't clarity yet. An opinion has been given, the formal, legally binding judgement has not.

Cyclefree said:

TGOHF said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Scott_P said:

TGOHF said:

Scott thinks that HGVs travelling the length of Europe and onward into Britain, thundering accross our countryside to collect Irish goods is a good thing.

You don't think free trade is a good thing?

Wow

Free trade is a good thing.

Having our motorways clogged up by hauliers for a hostile third party nation that aren't trading with us isn't.

"hostile"

My head has just disappeared in my hands again.

Suggesting Ireland is a hostile nation is very sad

The nation may not be but their current President is.

No he isn’t. He is doing the best, as he sees it, for his nation. He may be going about in in a cack-handed way but Britain is hardly in a position to make that accusation about other countries, is it?

I must have missed the bit where he claimed to be talking for Britain

ReggieCide said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

ReggieCide said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

TGOHF said:

Scott_P said:

TGOHF said:

Scott thinks that HGVs travelling the length of Europe and onward into Britain, thundering accross our countryside to collect Irish goods is a good thing.

You don't think free trade is a good thing?

Wow

I don't think Southern England being used as a virtually free road bridge for trade between Ireland and the EU is much of a benefit.

Should tax each HGV £1000 a trip.

Irish hauliers pay 4.5 million euro per year to use UK roads

each? - peanuts otherwise

Not really. They pay a levy of £10 a day for every day or part of day they drive in the UK. It applies to all foreign vehicles over a weight limit and is a similar rate for UK drivers in other EU countries. It seems both a reasonable system and a reasonable rate.

still peanuts for all goods on our (and Europe's) roads when much of it can go by rail (?)

So you are advocating building a goods railway from the Welsh ports to the channel Tunnel? Not sure that is going to get much support.

Anyway the question of rail vs road is a separate issue.

El_Capitano said:

Xenon said:

I completely agree. This has been a remainers Brexit by people who never believed it was a good idea or they could make it work. It was all about damage limitation to them and nothing else. Hence the terrible negotiation and deal that can't get through parliament.

Now the remainers who consistently failed in their approach are calling for us to remain instead and sadly will probably get their wish.

If only there'd been a party of Leavers that had stood hundreds of candidates in every General Election since 1997, giving people the opportunity to vote for True Brexit As Implemented By Leavers. You could maybe call it the "UK Independence Party" or something like that.

Today we have seen the ultra brexiteers say we can walk out of the EU without paying a penny, we can revoke A50 and then invoke it, Ireland is a hostile nation, and Holyhead is unimportant for the Welsh economy

And they think they will achieve a hard brexit. Fortunately today ended all that and they have TM brexit or we remain. Their choice

AllyPally_Rob said:

GIN1138 said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/JamesERothwell/status/1069904009539010561

Is Jezz still making a fuss about going on BBC?

They should withdraw the offer to Corbyn and ask Farage instead...

To be fair Jezza has agreed to the ITV format which is a simple head to head with just a moderator.

The BBC format is a total pigs ear including opening statements, closing statements and a panel of experts for some reason, they'll probably chuck in the mad Newsnight vicar aswell!

I can't say I am enthusiastic about seeing the two of them debate regardless, but if they're going to do it they should go with the straightforward ITV format. Corbyn should stick to his guns on this.

Except that the problem is that the brexit debate isn't a general election, where the PM and the LotO could fairly stand as representative of the main choice.

May and Corbyn hold very similar views on Brexit and a debate between them would be arguing about angels on pinheads, while voices representative of Remain or a harder Brexit (who between them probably represent about 70-80% of opinion) would not get a look in.

Xenon said:

Sean_F said:

Xenon said:

Andrew said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Put leavers in charge and even see if they don't know what they are talking about.

Johnson was ForSec for two years, and Davis ditto BrexSec.

Both were hopeless beyond belief.

They were ignored throughout the whole process.

If so, they ought to have resigned in October 2017 (when the transition period was proposed) or December 2017 when the backstop was agreed in principle. If those are unacceptable to them now, then they were unacceptable then.

While it's plain that plenty of Remainers in the Commons have never had any intention of honouring the result of the Referendum, despite voting to trigger A50, Brexit-supporting MPs have been utterly stupid in assisting them, by denouncing May's deal.

Perhaps they should have done, but that does not change the fact that she ignored them.

And Brexit supporting MPs aren't being stupid in rejecting the deal if they find it unacceptable. It's exactly what they should be doing.

It's stupid to make the best the enemy of the good. If the ECJ concurs with the Advocate General's opinion, then we won't be getting No Deal, if the WA gets voted down, but Remain.

TGOHF said:

Good - if significantly less polluting HGVs serving Ireland's interests on our roads is the "damage" from Brexit - then sign me up.

TBH I am, for once in my life, largely with TGOHF on this one. It's the same lunacy as the third runway at Heathrow, where we are determined to turn ourselves into a hub of congestion and pollution largely for the benefit of kiss-and-go travellers.

If we charged the full environmental cost of cross-Britain transport to Irish hauliers, those hauliers would largely (perishables aside) find it more economical to go by sea. We don't. We have chosen to subsidise jobs in the port industry instead. So we continue to concrete over our countryside - such as the M11 extension replacing the A14 from Cambridge to Huntingdon to provide a faster route to Felixstowe - and increase our already illegal air pollution levels.

At least the other European hub airport, Schiphol, is in a country with a sane local transport policy focused on bikes, pedestrians and local trains. We have a hub airport, Irish HGV traffic, car-centric cities and ever-rising train fares. It's pretty much a quadruple pollution whammy.

https://twitter.com/jessicaelgot/status/1069859529167433729

rottenborough said:

AllyPally_Rob said:

GIN1138 said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/JamesERothwell/status/1069904009539010561

Is Jezz still making a fuss about going on BBC?

They should withdraw the offer to Corbyn and ask Farage instead...

To be fair Jezza has agreed to the ITV format which is a simple head to head with just a moderator.

The BBC format is a total pigs ear including opening statements, closing statements and a panel of experts for some reason, they'll probably chuck in the mad Newsnight vicar aswell!

I can't say I am enthusiastic about seeing the two of them debate regardless, but if they're going to do it they should go with the straightforward ITV format. Corbyn should stick to his guns on this.

Well, it would be a laugh whatever, seeing these two titans debating, but looks like it aint gonna happen.

Frankly a waste of time as no member of the public can vote anyway.

May may be pulling the whole vote anyway in a day or two, once she realises how bad the numbers are.

Doing both seems an obvious compromise, and enables whoever suggests that idea first to say the other is scared of more scrutiny/debate etc.