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SystemSystem Posts: 12,650
edited December 2018 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » As if things weren’t complicated enough

UK government may have been in contempt of Parliament by not publishing Brexit legal advice, Commons Speaker rules https://t.co/osk18Kg8GY

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Comments

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,490
    Lock him up.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,490
    My this is fun.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 52,726
    Second like the referendum
  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 4,134
    I'd have been here sooner but I had to walk.
  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900
    Has anyone claimed 48th yet?
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    solarflare said:

    I'd have been here sooner but I had to walk.

    Oh, very good. You should have set off earlier.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,315
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    My this is fun.

    No it isn't.

    This is one fight it is just not worth having. Just publish the damn advice - Bercow wouldn't this way if it was not pretty clear there was a contempt, he wouldn't stick his neck out like that.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,315
    solarflare said:

    I'd have been here sooner but I had to walk.

    LOL. That's a banning offence.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 11,884
    edited December 2018
    Anorak said:

    solarflare said:

    I'd have been here sooner but I had to walk.

    Oh, very good. You should have set off earlier.
    He was waiting.

    Godot'nly knows who for though.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,490
    kle4 said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    My this is fun.

    No it isn't.

    This is one fight it is just not worth having. Just publish the damn advice - Bercow wouldn't this way if it was not pretty clear there was a contempt, he wouldn't stick his neck out like that.
    I meant Brexit in general.

    The government could see one or two MPs suspended from the meanining full and any Vote of No Confidence.
  • AnneJGPAnneJGP Posts: 3,884
    I knew it! I checked to see the new thread hadn't gone up before I posted on the old one. I think my post triggered the publication.

    Good evening, everyone.

    (What I was asking was, how the Job Centre deals with people who live in a place where the first bus doesn't go until say 9.30am. How would anyone living in a place like that ever get to a typical day job? Assuming no car, of course.)
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,630
    FPT:
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    kle4 said:

    SeanT said:

    Omnium said:

    SeanT said:

    You've probably discussed this to death, and I haven't had time to read the threads (flying to Bordeaux tomorrow at 8am, UGH), but my God.

    That advice from the AG, that the TMay deal is a calculated risk??? And the risk is that we might become a permanent vassal state of the EU??? A satrapy, a far flung imperial colony. that's the "calculated risk"?? Sure, vote for that, why not, then just hope for the best.

    FUCK OFF

    The deal is deader than the deadest thing in the Walking Dead. What next?

    I think the risk is more we have to break cover from our holier-than-though reputation and just do what we want.

    There are no deals whatsoever that the British people are obliged to tell their representatives to honor. If we get somehow entrapped in the EU we can just say 'Not for us thanks'. Who's going to object, or at least object so that we care?

    I doubt that you'll look back on the above post with fondness.
    That did actually occur to me after I wrote the post. If it comes to it, we are a sovereign nation, indeed we are not just a sovereign nation, we are the United Kingdom, godammit, so we can just say Fuck You and walk away from whatever. What is the EU gonna do? Invade? With broken German tanks and Guy Verhoefstadt holding a fly swatter?

    Of course our Fuck You would lead to a trade war and be very nasty and probably very bad for our credit rating, but it would not be the end of days. We'd survive.

    Nonetheless the phrase "calculated risk" when attached to the concept of perpetual vassalage is really not very good branding for TMay's deal. I cannot see how it passes.

    The deal was already dead, they're just killing time until the meaningful vote and the next stage of this farce can begin, as various improbable things have to be considered and some promises, from Labour and the Tories, will either be proven true or to be a big pile of elephant dung.
    Jon Craig of Sky suggested that six amendments will be taken by the speaker and one of them could pass, negating the vote on the deal. He did not say but as Nicola Sturgeon has again been with TM tonight, and Nicola wants a Norway deal, it could just be that is the amendment that will change the debate and should receive cross party support with all the SNP on board
    Interesting. When do we get to see the amendments? Can they be tabled at any time through the MV debate?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,315
    edited December 2018
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    kle4 said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    My this is fun.

    No it isn't.

    This is one fight it is just not worth having. Just publish the damn advice - Bercow wouldn't this way if it was not pretty clear there was a contempt, he wouldn't stick his neck out like that.
    I meant Brexit in general.

    The government could see one or two MPs suspended from the meanining full and any Vote of No Confidence.
    All the more reason not to have this problem, not that it will make a difference on the meaningful vote.

    And no, it isn't fun.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    This is one of those times when Leavers get irritable if anyone mentions Parliamentary sovereignty.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,630
    SeanT said:

    FPT

    "It is a lucky man who can say "I have lived in Herefordshire". That's where I grew up. And it is probably the most beautiful, unspoiled county in England and no one ever goes there. Still.

    At the time, as a teenager, I thought it was ineffably boring. Now when I go back I see how lucky I was: surrounded by that intense loveliness. I could walk from my house to totally exquisite rural quietness, by the River Wye, in ten to fifteen minutes."

    Anorak:

    "Ditto my early life in a market town in the Lakes. Adore going back, despised it and everything about it as a teen."

    The Lakes are, of course, sublime. The only problem is the tourists. But yes, it is amazing how one's perspectives change from teenhood to middle age. I would love a nice old house in rural Herefordshire right now.

    Long walk to the JobCentre though...
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 80,027
    Parliament has published a 52 page summary of the legal advice. Frothers and foamers of all stripes hate the deal already, which looks like failing by 200ish.
    What on earth is keeping the legal advice ?
    This is a true minority administration, not Blair's or Baldwin's huge majority. The Government needs to publish
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 55,736
    How stupid do they look? Now EVERYBODY wants to see this advice. The advice that May's Brexit is mortally wounded.

    Just publish, and be damned.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    https://twitter.com/nmdacosta/status/1069708899387928578
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,490
    So this is sub optimal for my bets on Geoffrey Cox or David Lidington succeeding Mrs May then?
  • eekeek Posts: 31,053
    Pulpstar said:

    Parliament has published a 52 page summary of the legal advice. Frothers and foamers of all stripes hate the deal already, which looks like failing by 200ish.
    What on earth is keeping the legal advice ?
    This is a true minority administration, not Blair's or Baldwin's huge majority. The Government needs to publish

    Things in it that compromise future negotiation tactics and options?
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 66,575
    edited December 2018
    Big_G_NorthWales

    Jon Craig of Sky suggested that six amendments will be taken by the speaker and one of them could pass, negating the vote on the deal. He did not say but as Nicola Sturgeon has again been with TM tonight, and Nicola wants a Norway deal, it could just be that is the amendment that will change the debate and should receive cross party support with all the SNP on board

    Benpointer

    Interesting. When do we get to see the amendments? Can they be tabled at any time through the MV debate?

    Big_G_NorthWales

    Something is going on and it fits in with Nick Boles interview yesterday. No one can tell me that no 10 has not got a plan to announce on the deal falling

    Not sure when we know about the amendments but it does seem a credible way round this mess

  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 55,736
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    So this is sub optimal for my bets on Geoffrey Cox or David Lidington succeeding Mrs May then?

    Cox should point to May and say "She made me do it!"
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 20,819
    SeanT said:

    Fpt

    Dixiedean:


    "Herefordshire is more rural than Northumberland? As I said. Hexham JCP covers an area bigger than Herefordshire. And it is the only one."

    It depends, of course, on how you define rurality. I think Herefordshire might be unique in England in having no high rise buildings (more than, say, ten storeys high), and no official length of motorway (unless you count the Ross spur (which some don't))

    In other words its complicated. Northumberland would surely win on other metrics. Population density?

    There’s no motorway in Northumberland and I doubt there’s any high rise buildings either.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 52,726
    SeanT said:

    Fpt

    Dixiedean:


    "Herefordshire is more rural than Northumberland? As I said. Hexham JCP covers an area bigger than Herefordshire. And it is the only one."

    It depends, of course, on how you define rurality. I think Herefordshire might be unique in England in having no high rise buildings (more than, say, ten storeys high), and no official length of motorway (unless you count the Ross spur (which some don't))

    In other words its complicated. Northumberland would surely win on other metrics. Population density?

    Isle of Wight has no motorways and only one extremely short stretch of dual carriageway outside the hospital. And no buildings more than ten storeys high afaik
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,630
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Big_G_NorthWales

    Jon Craig of Sky suggested that six amendments will be taken by the speaker and one of them could pass, negating the vote on the deal. He did not say but as Nicola Sturgeon has again been with TM tonight, and Nicola wants a Norway deal, it could just be that is the amendment that will change the debate and should receive cross party support with all the SNP on board

    Benpointer

    Interesting. When do we get to see the amendments? Can they be tabled at any time through the MV debate?

    Big_G_NorthWales

    Something is going on and it fits in with Nick Boles interview yesterday. No one can tell me that no 10 has not got a plan to announce on the deal falling

    Not sure when we know about the amendments but it does seem a credible way round this mess

    Curse of the broken blockquotes, eh? :lol:
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,943
    Remind me didn't the DUP used to be the governments "partner" ? :D
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 22,107
    MarqueeMark said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    So this is sub optimal for my bets on Geoffrey Cox or David Lidington succeeding Mrs May then?

    Cox should point to May and say "She made me do it!"
    Why is May getting the politics of this so wrong?
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,470
    May can’t just pivot to Norway.
    Lacks credibility, surely.

    However, she could concede a referendum on the deal in exchange for the deal being approved.

    Said referendum could take place *after* Brexit day. So we would formally have
    Brexited.

    This all so seems unlikely.
    But so does everything else.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,315
    MarqueeMark said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    So this is sub optimal for my bets on Geoffrey Cox or David Lidington succeeding Mrs May then?

    Cox should point to May and say "She made me do it!"
    No PM can make someone do such a thing, they can always resign. Especially with this PM.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,316
    Has HYUFD been appointed as DWP Sec of State yet?
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,718
    FPT:

    Let's take my village in Cumbria. The nearest job centre is in the nearest city - Barrow - some 21 miles away, a good 50 minutes along country roads by car, to be certain of getting there allow an hour, maybe a bit more to get there and find parking.

    Walking - about 7 hours there - and 7 hours back. I'm sure HYUFD does those sorts of walks in a day regularly.

    By bike - dunno - but say, over 2 hours, there and 2 hours back.

    By public transport: well a walk to the local station is about 20 minutes and there is one train an hour which takes 45 minutes and then another walk or bus to the job centre. If the train does not come you're stuffed. There are no buses.

    Some may have noticed that there were problems with Northern Rail this year. A big issue in Cumbria but not one which made it to the London-based papers. Who cares about unemployed rural Cumbrians after all.....

    So easy peasy really......

    About the only time I have really rooted for Corbyn was when he spoke up about rural bus services at PMQs - doubtless to the derisive condescension of many. But not me - because this sort of boring every day stuff, the minutiae of most people's lives, which can make life pleasant or tolerable or like an endless exhausting battle, is what matters to a lot of people.

    And while I have no time for scroungers I do understand from my own life and that of people close to me that when you're down you need practical help not lectures and punishments and sometimes a little kindness does not go amiss not sanctioning people and then spouting statistics. What can seem easy to those of us who can cope can seem like an unsurmountable mountain to those who can't.

    Yes people need to make an effort and develop a work ethic etc etc. Plunging them into poverty without thinking is not the best way to get them where you want them to be.


    Oh - and apparently, according to HYUFD, working mothers need to get a non-working friend or relative to take their kids to school. Tough on those who don't have friends willing to get up at an early hour, travel to your house to take your kids to school or those whose nearest relative was their elderly and partly disabled mother.

    HYUFD may be a splendid chap in real life but his latest comments exemplify why so many of us think so many Tories (a) don't live in the real world the rest of us live in; and (b) are heartless bastards, indifferent to the plight of those not like them.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,316
    MarqueeMark said:

    How stupid do they look? Now EVERYBODY wants to see this advice. The advice that May's Brexit is mortally wounded.

    Just publish, and be damned.

    +1

    The vote is lost, it is not worth risking suspension of Tory MPs.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 66,575
    Benpointer said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Big_G_NorthWales

    Jon Craig of Sky suggested that six amendments will be taken by the speaker and one of them could pass, negating the vote on the deal. He did not say but as Nicola Sturgeon has again been with TM tonight, and Nicola wants a Norway deal, it could just be that is the amendment that will change the debate and should receive cross party support with all the SNP on board

    Benpointer

    Interesting. When do we get to see the amendments? Can they be tabled at any time through the MV debate?

    Big_G_NorthWales

    Something is going on and it fits in with Nick Boles interview yesterday. No one can tell me that no 10 has not got a plan to announce on the deal falling

    Not sure when we know about the amendments but it does seem a credible way round this mess

    Curse of the broken blockquotes, eh? :lol:
    Indeed. They are more complex than Brexit !!!!
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,315
    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/nmdacosta/status/1069708899387928578

    And the Speaker would accept this other proposation because?
  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 4,134
    Maybe the dog ate the full legal advice, there's no copy and noone wants to be the one to admit it...
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,316
    IanB2 said:

    SeanT said:

    Fpt

    Dixiedean:


    "Herefordshire is more rural than Northumberland? As I said. Hexham JCP covers an area bigger than Herefordshire. And it is the only one."

    It depends, of course, on how you define rurality. I think Herefordshire might be unique in England in having no high rise buildings (more than, say, ten storeys high), and no official length of motorway (unless you count the Ross spur (which some don't))

    In other words its complicated. Northumberland would surely win on other metrics. Population density?

    Isle of Wight has no motorways and only one extremely short stretch of dual carriageway outside the hospital. And no buildings more than ten storeys high afaik
    But the IoW is part of Hants.
  • theProletheProle Posts: 1,443
    As a die hard leaver who thinks May did a worse job of negotiating than if we'd sent Donald Duck, even I think this is starting to get silly. It's only a (probably ambiguous) legal opinion for crying out loud, not the holy grail. It's also not going to change a single mind no matter what it says - those who find it politically convenient to do so will either shout about it or rubbish it.

    Let's just get on with the meaningful vote, and then we can either go off and lick our wounds or await plans B C and D from Downing Street.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,943
    edited December 2018
    Jonathan said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    So this is sub optimal for my bets on Geoffrey Cox or David Lidington succeeding Mrs May then?

    Cox should point to May and say "She made me do it!"
    Why is May getting the politics of this so wrong?
    Because she's a truly terrible politician... How else do you blow a 20% opinion poll lead in 4 weeks. ;)
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,316
    Jonathan said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    So this is sub optimal for my bets on Geoffrey Cox or David Lidington succeeding Mrs May then?

    Cox should point to May and say "She made me do it!"
    Why is May getting the politics of this so wrong?
    Because she is out of moves.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,315
    Jonathan said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    So this is sub optimal for my bets on Geoffrey Cox or David Lidington succeeding Mrs May then?

    Cox should point to May and say "She made me do it!"
    Why is May getting the politics of this so wrong?
    When you reel from crisis to crisis you can turn every new problem into a crisis by default.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,809
    What is the timetable for the Standards Committee?

    ie Assuming Govt loses vote tomorrow, when would Standards Committee meet and how quickly could it issue its verdict?

    And what would be timetable after that - ie would it come back to Commons again for a final vote?
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 30,523
    Gallowgate said:

    SeanT said:

    Fpt

    Dixiedean:


    "Herefordshire is more rural than Northumberland? As I said. Hexham JCP covers an area bigger than Herefordshire. And it is the only one."

    It depends, of course, on how you define rurality. I think Herefordshire might be unique in England in having no high rise buildings (more than, say, ten storeys high), and no official length of motorway (unless you count the Ross spur (which some don't))

    In other words its complicated. Northumberland would surely win on other metrics. Population density?

    There’s no motorway in Northumberland and I doubt there’s any high rise buildings either.
    SeanT said:

    Fpt

    Dixiedean:


    "Herefordshire is more rural than Northumberland? As I said. Hexham JCP covers an area bigger than Herefordshire. And it is the only one."

    It depends, of course, on how you define rurality. I think Herefordshire might be unique in England in having no high rise buildings (more than, say, ten storeys high), and no official length of motorway (unless you count the Ross spur (which some don't))

    In other words its complicated. Northumberland would surely win on other metrics. Population density?



    Northumberland is curious. Over half the population live in the tiny corner south of Ashington and east of Morpeth. North of there and west, especially north of Hexham, and it is empty. Far more so than Herefordshire.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,315
    theProle said:

    As a die hard leaver who thinks May did a worse job of negotiating than if we'd sent Donald Duck, even I think this is starting to get silly. It's only a (probably ambiguous) legal opinion for crying out loud, not the holy grail. It's also not going to change a single mind no matter what it says - those who find it politically convenient to do so will either shout about it or rubbish it.

    Let's just get on with the meaningful vote, and then we can either go off and lick our wounds or await plans B C and D from Downing Street.

    Sensible words all around. Not least because everybody's already talking about what the advice says or doesn't say without even seeing the full thing anyway, so it is not as though this is preventing talk of it.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 56,314
    Mortimer said:

    Jonathan said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    So this is sub optimal for my bets on Geoffrey Cox or David Lidington succeeding Mrs May then?

    Cox should point to May and say "She made me do it!"
    Why is May getting the politics of this so wrong?
    Because she is out of moves.
    That's where you're wrong. Everyone is playing into her hands at the moment.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 55,736
    MikeL said:

    What is the timetable for the Standards Committee?

    ie Assuming Govt loses vote tomorrow, when would Standards Committee meet and how quickly could it issue its verdict?

    And what would be timetable after that - ie would it come back to Commons again for a final vote?

    Could they decide to make it a committee of the whole House?
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 46,710
    Gallowgate said:

    SeanT said:

    Fpt

    Dixiedean:


    "Herefordshire is more rural than Northumberland? As I said. Hexham JCP covers an area bigger than Herefordshire. And it is the only one."

    It depends, of course, on how you define rurality. I think Herefordshire might be unique in England in having no high rise buildings (more than, say, ten storeys high), and no official length of motorway (unless you count the Ross spur (which some don't))

    In other words its complicated. Northumberland would surely win on other metrics. Population density?

    There’s no motorway in Northumberland and I doubt there’s any high rise buildings either.
    Yeah, but Herefordshire has the SAS. If they say their county is the most rural, I'm not arguing with them. Ditto if they say it isn't. ;)
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 80,027
    edited December 2018
    Mortimer said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    How stupid do they look? Now EVERYBODY wants to see this advice. The advice that May's Brexit is mortally wounded.

    Just publish, and be damned.

    +1

    The vote is lost, it is not worth risking suspension of Tory MPs.
    If everyone votes as I think they will in the VONC, the Government survives by a single vote if the DUP abstain. (IF Cox, Lidington suspended)
    I've assumed Bercow for, Hermon against the government
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,630
    Does anyone know when the MV amendments will be published?
  • theProletheProle Posts: 1,443
    Gardenwalker said:

    May can’t just pivot to Norway.
    Lacks credibility, surely.

    However, she could concede a referendum on the deal in exchange for the deal being approved.

    Said referendum could take place *after* Brexit day. So we would formally have
    Brexited.

    This all so seems unlikely.
    But so does everything else.

    How exactly would that work? If we vote to reject the deal - too late, we've signed up?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,315
    williamglenn said:

    Mortimer said:

    Jonathan said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    So this is sub optimal for my bets on Geoffrey Cox or David Lidington succeeding Mrs May then?

    Cox should point to May and say "She made me do it!"
    Why is May getting the politics of this so wrong?
    Because she is out of moves.
    That's where you're wrong. Everyone is playing into her hands at the moment.
    Oh william, you are either this generation's Cassandra or simply extremely funny.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,718
    edited December 2018
    SeanT said:

    FPT



    Anorak:

    "Ditto my early life in a market town in the Lakes. Adore going back, despised it and everything about it as a teen."

    The Lakes are, of course, sublime. The only problem is the tourists. But yes, it is amazing how one's perspectives change from teenhood to middle age. I would love a nice old house in rural Herefordshire right now.

    My other half had exactly the same view as Anorak about his market town in the Lakes (maybe the same one?) when young. Now he adores the Lakes and has to be dragged away from the place.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1069713183567503363
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 66,575
    Jonathan said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    So this is sub optimal for my bets on Geoffrey Cox or David Lidington succeeding Mrs May then?

    Cox should point to May and say "She made me do it!"
    Why is May getting the politics of this so wrong?
    Actually I do not think she is. If Jon Craigs story tonight is true that there is a coalition of mps including Nick Boles and the SNP seeking to amend the deal to Norway , it is onlyby her going on and pressing the meaningful vote that will see this materialise.

    Indeed if this happens I will be delighted as it will stop no deal and also another referendum

    Iceland would welcome us and with Norway we would be 3 Countries wth our own coastal waters
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,315
    Pulpstar said:

    Mortimer said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    How stupid do they look? Now EVERYBODY wants to see this advice. The advice that May's Brexit is mortally wounded.

    Just publish, and be damned.

    +1

    The vote is lost, it is not worth risking suspension of Tory MPs.
    If everyone votes as I think they will in the VONC, the Government survives by a single vote if the DUP abstain. (IF Cox, Lidington suspended)
    I've assumed Bercow for, Hermon against the government
    I don't think Bercow misses the opportunity to vote against, precedent be damned.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,490
    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1069713183567503363

    Where's my embargoed copy?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 52,726
    Mortimer said:

    IanB2 said:

    SeanT said:

    Fpt

    Dixiedean:


    "Herefordshire is more rural than Northumberland? As I said. Hexham JCP covers an area bigger than Herefordshire. And it is the only one."

    It depends, of course, on how you define rurality. I think Herefordshire might be unique in England in having no high rise buildings (more than, say, ten storeys high), and no official length of motorway (unless you count the Ross spur (which some don't))

    In other words its complicated. Northumberland would surely win on other metrics. Population density?

    Isle of Wight has no motorways and only one extremely short stretch of dual carriageway outside the hospital. And no buildings more than ten storeys high afaik
    But the IoW is part of Hants.
    Err, nope. Not for a long time.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,315
    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1069713183567503363

    Tories up. Come on, that has to be nonsense. I don't like Corbyn one bit, and I support the deal, and even I wouldn't say I was voting Tory to a pollster right now.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,470
    theProle said:

    Gardenwalker said:

    May can’t just pivot to Norway.
    Lacks credibility, surely.

    However, she could concede a referendum on the deal in exchange for the deal being approved.

    Said referendum could take place *after* Brexit day. So we would formally have
    Brexited.

    This all so seems unlikely.
    But so does everything else.

    How exactly would that work? If we vote to reject the deal - too late, we've signed up?
    Presumably May would need confirmation from the EU that they’d have us back.

    As I said, it seems unlikely.

    However, May either has a cunning plan, or she has a plan to go down like the Titanic.

    Not sure which it is right now.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,490
    https://twitter.com/johnrentoul/status/1069713570970157057?s=21
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    https://twitter.com/Andrew_ComRes/status/1069714155668729856
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,630
    Gardenwalker said:

    theProle said:

    Gardenwalker said:

    May can’t just pivot to Norway.
    Lacks credibility, surely.

    However, she could concede a referendum on the deal in exchange for the deal being approved.

    Said referendum could take place *after* Brexit day. So we would formally have
    Brexited.

    This all so seems unlikely.
    But so does everything else.

    How exactly would that work? If we vote to reject the deal - too late, we've signed up?
    Presumably May would need confirmation from the EU that they’d have us back.

    As I said, it seems unlikely.

    However, May either has a cunning plan, or she has a plan to go down like the Titanic.

    Not sure which it is right now.
    Suspect she's engaged in a Titanic struggle. Unfortunately.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 66,575
    SeanT said:

    dixiedean said:

    Gallowgate said:

    SeanT said:

    Fpt

    Dixiedean:


    "Herefordshire is more rural than Northumberland? As I said. Hexham JCP covers an area bigger than Herefordshire. And it is the only one."

    It depends, of course, on how you define rurality. I think Herefordshire might be unique in England in having no high rise buildings (more than, say, ten storeys high), and no official length of motorway (unless you count the Ross spur (which some don't))

    In other words its complicated. Northumberland would surely win on other metrics. Population density?

    There’s no motorway in Northumberland and I doubt there’s any high rise buildings either.
    SeanT said:

    Fpt

    Dixiedean:


    "Herefordshire is more rural than Northumberland? As I said. Hexham JCP covers an area bigger than Herefordshire. And it is the only one."

    It depends, of course, on how you define rurality. I think Herefordshire might be unique in England in having no high rise buildings (more than, say, ten storeys high), and no official length of motorway (unless you count the Ross spur (which some don't))

    In other words its complicated. Northumberland would surely win on other metrics. Population density?

    "Northumberland is curious. Over half the population live in the tiny corner south of Ashington and east of Morpeth. North of there and west, especially north of Hexham, and it is empty. Far more so than Herefordshire."

    I'm sure that's true. Northumberland has a magnificent emptiness. And a grandeur, as well.

    Bamburgh is stunning.

    How can you forget my beloved Berwick on Tweed were I went to primary and grammar schools before leaving when I was 18
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,718
    I wonder what the EU is making of all these shenanigans.

    Or are they too busy hiring zillions of customs inspectors?
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    https://twitter.com/ProfChalmers/status/1069714426352295936
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 80,027
    kle4 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Mortimer said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    How stupid do they look? Now EVERYBODY wants to see this advice. The advice that May's Brexit is mortally wounded.

    Just publish, and be damned.

    +1

    The vote is lost, it is not worth risking suspension of Tory MPs.
    If everyone votes as I think they will in the VONC, the Government survives by a single vote if the DUP abstain. (IF Cox, Lidington suspended)
    I've assumed Bercow for, Hermon against the government
    I don't think Bercow misses the opportunity to vote against, precedent be damned.
    I think he'll vote for, but the government is on shaky enough ground without getting its own members suspended.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 66,575
    kle4 said:

    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1069713183567503363

    Tories up. Come on, that has to be nonsense. I don't like Corbyn one bit, and I support the deal, and even I wouldn't say I was voting Tory to a pollster right now.
    I have no such problem. I am a conservative and voting member
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,942
    OT. MM. If the film your wife recommended with Rachel Weisz was 'Disobedience' about an Orthodox married Jewish girl who realizes she's a lesbien it's excellent as are Rachel Weisz and Rachel McAdams
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 66,575
    edited December 2018
    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/Andrew_ComRes/status/1069714155668729856

    Well that is helpful then
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,455
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    https://twitter.com/johnrentoul/status/1069713570970157057?s=21

    Looks to me like the "in full" invites opposition, whereas comparison with No Deal or Remain encourages pragmatism.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,315
    edited December 2018
    Cyclefree said:

    I wonder what the EU is making of all these shenanigans.

    Or are they too busy hiring zillions of customs inspectors?

    The EU is not without its own shenanigans. If they mean what they say they should be urgently preparing for no deal. Other than the belief they want a deal so bad they will massively compromise, I've not seen a reason why the EU would be so kind as to accommodate anything else. And anything else requires them to be accommodating.
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    kle4 said:

    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1069713183567503363

    Tories up. Come on, that has to be nonsense. I don't like Corbyn one bit, and I support the deal, and even I wouldn't say I was voting Tory to a pollster right now.
    I have no such problem. I am a conservative and voting member
    Yes, but any waverers moving toward the Tories right now I find baffling, even if MOE.

    Sweet dreams all. What a shit show this all is.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 87,038
    Some of the yellow vests are right charmers...

    The BBC's Hugh Schofield in Paris says more moderate members of the movement who said they would be prepared to talk are being shouted down by more extreme elements, and have been receiving death threats.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 129,932
    edited December 2018
    Cyclefree said:

    FPT:

    Let's take my village in Cumbria. The nearest job centre is in the nearest city - Barrow - some 21 miles away, a good 50 minutes along country roads by car, to be certain of getting there allow an hour, maybe a bit more to get there and find parking.

    Walking - about 7 hours there - and 7 hours back. I'm sure HYUFD does those sorts of walks in a day regularly.

    By bike - dunno - but say, over 2 hours, there and 2 hours back.

    By public transport: well a walk to the local station is about 20 minutes and there is one train an hour which takes 45 minutes and then another walk or bus to the job centre. If the train does not come you're stuffed. There are no buses.

    Some may have noticed that there were problems with Northern Rail this year. A big issue in Cumbria but not one which made it to the London-based papers. Who cares about unemployed rural Cumbrians after all.....

    So easy peasy really......

    About the only time I ha

    Yes people need to make an effort and develop a work ethic etc etc. Plunging them into poverty without thinking is not the best way to get them where you want them to be.


    Oh - and apparently, according to HYUFD, working mothers need to get a non-working friend or relative to take their kids to school. Tough on those who don't have friends willing to get up at an early hour, travel to your house to take your kids to school or those whose nearest relative was their elderly and partly disabled mother.

    HYUFD may be a splendid chap in real life but his latest comments exemplify why so many of us think so many Tories (a) don't live in the real world the rest of us live in; and (b) are heartless bastards, indifferent to the plight of those not like them.

    No, someone who believes unemployment benefits should go hand in hand with getting people ready for the world of work not as a handout.

    If I was really handless I would advocate what the USA or Canada or Italy or Spain or Japan or Poland or indeed Norway does ie you cannot get any unemployment benefits at all unless you have made sufficient unemployment insurance contributions when in work and benefits are time limited, it is in those countries the foodbank for some really does become permanent.

  • AnazinaAnazina Posts: 3,487
    Who is this big Cox character? I need to keep up.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 129,932
    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/Andrew_ComRes/status/1069714155668729856

    So No Deal plus May's Deal combined on 60% but Remain ahead of both individually.

    Head to head I suspect the Deal would still beat No Deal and Remain
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,455
    HYUFD said:

    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/Andrew_ComRes/status/1069714155668729856

    So No Deal plus May's Deal combined on 60% but Remain ahead of both individually.

    Head to head I suspect the Deal would still beat No Deal and Remain
    Presumably it's approval one by one, since they sum to ~200%!
  • AnazinaAnazina Posts: 3,487
    kle4 said:

    Cyclefree said:

    I wonder what the EU is making of all these shenanigans.

    Or are they too busy hiring zillions of customs inspectors?

    The EU is not without its own shenanigans. If they mean what they say they should be urgently preparing for no deal. Other than the belief they want a deal so bad they will massively compromise, I've not seen a reason why the EU would be so kind as to accommodate anything else. And anything else requires them to be accommodating.
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    kle4 said:

    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1069713183567503363

    Tories up. Come on, that has to be nonsense. I don't like Corbyn one bit, and I support the deal, and even I wouldn't say I was voting Tory to a pollster right now.
    I have no such problem. I am a conservative and voting member
    Yes, but any waverers moving toward the Tories right now I find baffling, even if MOE.

    Sweet dreams all. What a shit show this all is.
    The clue is in the name – margin of error.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,630
    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/ProfChalmers/status/1069714426352295936

    Can someone translate that into laypersonspeak please?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,490
    https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1069715009914191873
    https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1069715437678669824
  • steve_garnersteve_garner Posts: 1,019
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Some of the yellow vests are right charmers...

    The BBC's Hugh Schofield in Paris says more moderate members of the movement who said they would be prepared to talk are being shouted down by more extreme elements, and have been receiving death threats.

    Yes, whilst Emperor Macron struts round the globe lecturing anyone and everyone his country descends into anarchy. To think some on this site have been envious of the French being governed by the pompous out of touch Macron.
  • alex.alex. Posts: 4,658
    So let me get this right. The problem with the legal advice is that it suggests that there is a risk that under the backstop the EU can prevent the U.K. from leaving the customs union. Labour’s policy is to legally insist on the customs union being permanent.

    Go figure...
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,455
    Benpointer said:

    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/ProfChalmers/status/1069714426352295936

    Can someone translate that into laypersonspeak please?
    The government might prefer to hold the vote and get it done with. Members of the opposition would shy from drama, and it wouldn't take many of them to stay home.
  • NemtynakhtNemtynakht Posts: 2,329
    AlastairMeeks said:

    This is one of those times when Leavers get irritable if anyone mentions Parliamentary sovereignty.

    I think leavers who want no deal probably want the legal advice published
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 129,932
    SeanT said:

    FPT

    "It is a lucky man who can say "I have lived in Herefordshire". That's where I grew up. And it is probably the most beautiful, unspoiled county in England and no one ever goes there. Still.

    At the time, as a teenager, I thought it was ineffably boring. Now when I go back I see how lucky I was: surrounded by that intense loveliness. I could walk from my house to totally exquisite rural quietness, by the River Wye, in ten to fifteen minutes."

    Anorak:

    "Ditto my early life in a market town in the Lakes. Adore going back, despised it and everything about it as a teen."

    The Lakes are, of course, sublime. The only problem is the tourists. But yes, it is amazing how one's perspectives change from teenhood to middle age. I would love a nice old house in rural Herefordshire right now.

    Yes, the scene walking over the bridge towards Hereford Cathedral on a sunny day is sublime
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,942
    OT Watching the news a nurse was murdered and her murderer has been sentenced to 17 years in jail. They were said to have had a three year 'affair'. Strange way to refer to it if neither of them were married or in a relationship with anyone else which i understand they weren't.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Benpointer said:

    Can someone translate that into laypersonspeak please?

    MPs will debate the contempt motion tomorrow, which as I understand it would lead to a straight vote.

    The government is delaying the close of business tonight so they can lay an amendment, which I think would refer the matter to a committee.

    They are gambling Parliament would rather shuffle it to the committee than vote.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1069718795567144960
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 129,932
    TheWhiteRabbit said:

    HYUFD said:

    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/Andrew_ComRes/status/1069714155668729856

    So No Deal plus May's Deal combined on 60% but Remain ahead of both individually.

    Head to head I suspect the Deal would still beat No Deal and Remain
    Presumably it's approval one by one, since they sum to ~200%!
    I assume the May Deal, Remain, No Deal Question is stand alone
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 52,757
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Some of the yellow vests are right charmers...

    The BBC's Hugh Schofield in Paris says more moderate members of the movement who said they would be prepared to talk are being shouted down by more extreme elements, and have been receiving death threats.

    Interesting to see so many PBers shilling for the vandalisers of the Arc de Triomphe.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 66,575
    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1069718795567144960

    No surprise there.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    https://twitter.com/ParlyApp/status/1069719218214572032
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 87,038
    Foxy said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Some of the yellow vests are right charmers...

    The BBC's Hugh Schofield in Paris says more moderate members of the movement who said they would be prepared to talk are being shouted down by more extreme elements, and have been receiving death threats.

    Interesting to see so many PBers shilling for the vandalisers of the Arc de Triomphe.
    Are they?
  • alex.alex. Posts: 4,658
    Frankly, the legal advice thing is ridiculous. The Attorney general provides legal advice to the Govt. if Parliament wants its own advice it can commission that for themselves. Legal advice is opinion, not fact. It is delivered for a client and that client is not obliged to act upon it or to make it available to others to influence their course of action.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 55,736
    Roger said:

    OT. MM. If the film your wife recommended with Rachel Weisz was 'Disobedience' about an Orthodox married Jewish girl who realizes she's a lesbien it's excellent as are Rachel Weisz and Rachel McAdams

    That would no doubt be it, Roger.

  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 52,757
    FWIW, isnt ComRes the Gold Standard?

    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1069718468763807745?s=19
  • alex.alex. Posts: 4,658
    edited December 2018
    Imagine if the Government were to go to court to try and argue a case that in some respects contradicted legal advice they had been given. If that legal advice could be forced into publication they could never win. And what if they had two contradictory versions of legal advice?
  • theProletheProle Posts: 1,443
    Roger said:

    OT Watching the news a nurse was murdered and her murderer has been sentenced to 17 years in jail. They were said to have had a three year 'affair'. Strange way to refer to it if neither of them were married or in a relationship with anyone else which i understand they weren't.

    She was engaged to someone else until not long before she was murdered.

    I regularly use the very minor single track road past the abandoned quarry where her body was found - it gave me the creeps when I realised it was quite likely I'd driven past around the time the murderer was hiding the body!
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,630
    Scott_P said:

    Benpointer said:

    Can someone translate that into laypersonspeak please?

    MPs will debate the contempt motion tomorrow, which as I understand it would lead to a straight vote.

    The government is delaying the close of business tonight so they can lay an amendment, which I think would refer the matter to a committee.

    They are gambling Parliament would rather shuffle it to the committee than vote.
    Thank-you.
  • AmpfieldAndyAmpfieldAndy Posts: 1,445
    edited December 2018
    The Gov have behaved like a bunch of muppets. If they didnt want to publish the legal advice, and there are good reasons either way, they should have opposed the motion to publish it in the first place. Once that motion was passed,they were always going to struggle with not publishing. Such incompetence seems typical of May and typical of why the Brexit negotiations have been so badly handled.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 52,757
    No majority for anything:

    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1069720867180027909?s=19
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    edited December 2018
    Cyclefree said:

    SeanT said:

    FPT



    Anorak:

    "Ditto my early life in a market town in the Lakes. Adore going back, despised it and everything about it as a teen."

    The Lakes are, of course, sublime. The only problem is the tourists. But yes, it is amazing how one's perspectives change from teenhood to middle age. I would love a nice old house in rural Herefordshire right now.

    My other half had exactly the same view as Anorak about his market town in the Lakes (maybe the same one?) when young. Now he adores the Lakes and has to be dragged away from the place.
    Penrith, which even then i recognised as infinitely more pleasant than some other Cumbrian towns such as Maryport or Workington or Cockermouth. I suspect I would still have hated it even if I'd been living in Keswick surrounded by true splendour.

    I also used to hate being 'dragged' fell walking with my Dad. Can't get enough of it now - and I'm fortunate in that my young city-dwelling kids love it too!
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