politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » There are four Brexit options and Remain is the least likely
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Almost certainly, I would think.rkrkrk said:
A lot of the discards used to be fish that people didn't want to eat. There's been some good campaigning to get people eating unpopular fish like gurnard.IanB2 said:
Too true, And all this talk of "keeping our fish" ignores the fact that the herring and mackerel caught in UK waters aren't to British taste (75% of the UK catch is exported, much to the EU) with most of the fare served across the counters of our "British" fish and chip shops being imported, much from the EU.rkrkrk said:
The CFP gets a bad press, but it is actually helping fish stocks recover. The biggest problem is politicians ignoring the science and allowing overfishing.ydoethur said:
Although given the vast, unneeded, and probably irreversible ecological damage it has caused, arguably an ability to leave the CFP is one of the more understandable reasons for being a Leaver.IanB2 said:
Exactly. Having a column for the fishing industry, which employees fewer people than Harrods, and not for the economic implications upon which the jobs of many depend, is not a balanced assessment.Benpointer said:
Nice chart... but it could do with another column headed "Avoids trashing the economy" - May's Deal = moderate yes; No Deal = strong nogeoffw said:GIN1138 said:Good piece David (as usual)
Henceforth we're ARLTB - All Road's Lead To Brexit
https://twitter.com/commonslibrary/status/1068476917228232705
I find this handy chart (from the Telegraph) useful:
I worry that in the excitement at taking back control, we will return to overfishing.0 -
With what?OldKingCole said:
Almost certainly, I would think.rkrkrk said:
A lot of the discards used to be fish that people didn't want to eat. There's been some good campaigning to get people eating unpopular fish like gurnard.IanB2 said:
Too true, And all this talk of "keeping our fish" ignores the fact that the herring and mackerel caught in UK waters aren't to British taste (75% of the UK catch is exported, much to the EU) with most of the fare served across the counters of our "British" fish and chip shops being imported, much from the EU.rkrkrk said:
The CFP gets a bad press, but it is actually helping fish stocks recover. The biggest problem is politicians ignoring the science and allowing overfishing.ydoethur said:
Although given the vast, unneeded, and probably irreversible ecological damage it has caused, arguably an ability to leave the CFP is one of the more understandable reasons for being a Leaver.IanB2 said:
Exactly. Having a column for the fishing industry, which employees fewer people than Harrods, and not for the economic implications upon which the jobs of many depend, is not a balanced assessment.Benpointer said:
Nice chart... but it could do with another column headed "Avoids trashing the economy" - May's Deal = moderate yes; No Deal = strong nogeoffw said:GIN1138 said:Good piece David (as usual)
Henceforth we're ARLTB - All Road's Lead To Brexit
https://twitter.com/commonslibrary/status/1068476917228232705
I find this handy chart (from the Telegraph) useful:
I worry that in the excitement at taking back control, we will return to overfishing.0 -
Look at the bigger picture. Do you think economic divergence on the island of Ireland is consistent with the peace settlement?RobD said:
I don't think the GFA precludes customs checks on the border.FF43 said:
I think the Withdrawal Agreement is decent as far as it goes. I also think the Irish border backstop is necessary. It forces us to confront the Irish border issue, when we pretended there's no problem and we made no commitment to maintaining a soft GFA border.RobD said:
There was a twitter thread posted here a week or so ago showing that it was more balanced than that. Both sides have made concessions, it's not true to say the EU just said "no" until they got what they want.FF43 said:
The Withdrawal Agreement should be supported because we don't have a real choice and never have done. Incidentally it isn't May's Deal. It's EU Demands, which haven't changed hugely over the past two years. They have added Level Playing Field requirements. Otherwise it's money, citizens' rights and Irish border provisions for a two year extension of the status quo and subsequent negotiations on the final arrangement.Benpointer said:
Indeed. Funny though, how even this biased Telegraph chart makes TM's deal look the best option.IanB2 said:
Exactly. Having a column for the fishing industry, which employees fewer people than Harrods, and not for the economic implications upon which the jobs of many depend, is not a balanced assessment.Benpointer said:
Nice chart... but it could do with another column headed "Avoids trashing the economy" - May's Deal = moderate yes; No Deal = strong nogeoffw said:GIN1138 said:Good piece David (as usual)
Henceforth we're ARLTB - All Road's Lead To Brexit
https://twitter.com/commonslibrary/status/1068476917228232705
I find this handy chart (from the Telegraph) useful:
Apols for shouting this but:
I HAVE YET TO HEAR A SINGLE CONVINCING ARGUMENT WHY MAY'S DEAL SHOULD NOT BE SUPPORTED.
The Political Statement isn't worth the paper it's written on but there is nevertheless no reason to support it.0 -
Of course he won't do that. He will play the identity politics card and choose an MP of colour because that fits his view of what International Development needs.SandyRentool said:
Jezza should seek to build bridges and offer the job to Hilary Benn.Scrapheap_as_was said:Resignations continue.... oh hang on...
https://twitter.com/SamCoatesTimes/status/10688882607709634600 -
I guess we known John McD is working a Saturday then.Scrapheap_as_was said:Resignations continue.... oh hang on...
https://twitter.com/SamCoatesTimes/status/10688882607709634600 -
I disagree. In any case itsi important there aren't any. The backstop ensures this.RobD said:
I don't think the GFA precludes customs checks on the border.FF43 said:
I think the Withdrawal Agreement is decent as far as it goes. I also think the Irish border backstop is necessary. It forces us to confront the Irish border issue, when we pretended there's no problem and we made no commitment to maintaining a soft GFA border.RobD said:
There was a twitter thread posted here a week or so ago showing that it was more balanced than that. Both sides have made concessions, it's not true to say the EU just said "no" until they got what they want.FF43 said:
The Withdrawal Agreement should be supported because we don't have a real choice and never have done. Incidentally it isn't May's Deal. It's EU Demands, which haven't changed hugely over the past two years. They have added Level Playing Field requirements. Otherwise it's money, citizens' rights and Irish border provisions for a two year extension of the status quo and subsequent negotiations on the final arrangement.Benpointer said:
Indeed. Funny though, how even this biased Telegraph chart makes TM's deal look the best option.IanB2 said:
Exactly. Having a column for the fishing industry, which employees fewer people than Harrods, and not for the economic implications upon which the jobs of many depend, is not a balanced assessment.Benpointer said:
Nice chart... but it could do with another column headed "Avoids trashing the economy" - May's Deal = moderate yes; No Deal = strong nogeoffw said:GIN1138 said:Good piece David (as usual)
Henceforth we're ARLTB - All Road's Lead To Brexit
https://twitter.com/commonslibrary/status/1068476917228232705
I find this handy chart (from the Telegraph) useful:
Apols for shouting this but:
I HAVE YET TO HEAR A SINGLE CONVINCING ARGUMENT WHY MAY'S DEAL SHOULD NOT BE SUPPORTED.
The Political Statement isn't worth the paper it's written on but there is nevertheless no reason to support it.0 -
If you read the FT article I linked yesterday, economic divergence has already taken place, very much to NI's disadvantage.williamglenn said:
Look at the bigger picture. Do you think economic divergence on the island of Ireland is consistent with the peace settlement?RobD said:
I don't think the GFA precludes customs checks on the border.FF43 said:
I think the Withdrawal Agreement is decent as far as it goes. I also think the Irish border backstop is necessary. It forces us to confront the Irish border issue, when we pretended there's no problem and we made no commitment to maintaining a soft GFA border.RobD said:
There was a twitter thread posted here a week or so ago showing that it was more balanced than that. Both sides have made concessions, it's not true to say the EU just said "no" until they got what they want.FF43 said:
The Withdrawal Agreement should be supported because we don't have a real choice and never have done. Incidentally it isn't May's Deal. It's EU Demands, which haven't changed hugely over the past two years. They have added Level Playing Field requirements. Otherwise it's money, citizens' rights and Irish border provisions for a two year extension of the status quo and subsequent negotiations on the final arrangement.Benpointer said:
Indeed. Funny though, how even this biased Telegraph chart makes TM's deal look the best option.IanB2 said:
Exactly. Having a column for the fishing industry, which employees fewer people than Harrods, and not for the economic implications upon which the jobs of many depend, is not a balanced assessment.Benpointer said:
Nice chart... but it could do with another column headed "Avoids trashing the economy" - May's Deal = moderate yes; No Deal = strong nogeoffw said:GIN1138 said:Good piece David (as usual)
Henceforth we're ARLTB - All Road's Lead To Brexit
https://twitter.com/commonslibrary/status/1068476917228232705
I find this handy chart (from the Telegraph) useful:
Apols for shouting this but:
I HAVE YET TO HEAR A SINGLE CONVINCING ARGUMENT WHY MAY'S DEAL SHOULD NOT BE SUPPORTED.
The Political Statement isn't worth the paper it's written on but there is nevertheless no reason to support it.0 -
That's a point. Will Corbyn be present for the meaningful vote or will he have time off to make up for the TV debate on the weekend?rottenborough said:
I guess we known John McD is working a Saturday then.Scrapheap_as_was said:Resignations continue.... oh hang on...
https://twitter.com/SamCoatesTimes/status/10688882607709634600 -
The current situation is crazy, long tv report the other day about Dutch boats fishing in uk waters, fish processed in Holland and imported back to the UK. Explains the CFP vitriol from coastal communities.IanB2 said:
The point is that out industry's future depends rather more on being able to continue importing and exporting fish from the EU than it does on being able to catch more of the fish that happen to be swimming about our own shores.RobD said:
Does it matter where the fish end up? I thought the argument was about who gets to do the fishing in the waters around Britain.IanB2 said:
Too true, And all this talk of "keeping our fish" ignores the fact that the herring and mackerel caught in UK waters aren't to British taste (75% of the UK catch is exported, much to the EU) with most of the fare served across the counters of our "British" fish and chip shops being imported, much from the EU.rkrkrk said:
The CFP gets a bad press, but it is actually helping fish stocks recover. The biggest problem is politicians ignoring the science and allowing overfishing.ydoethur said:
Although given the vast, unneeded, and probably irreversible ecological damage it has caused, arguably an ability to leave the CFP is one of the more understandable reasons for being a Leaver.IanB2 said:
Exactly. Having a column for the fishing industry, which employees fewer people than Harrods, and not for the economic implications upon which the jobs of many depend, is not a balanced assessment.Benpointer said:
Nice chart... but it could do with another column headed "Avoids trashing the economy" - May's Deal = moderate yes; No Deal = strong nogeoffw said:GIN1138 said:Good piece David (as usual)
Henceforth we're ARLTB - All Road's Lead To Brexit
https://twitter.com/commonslibrary/status/1068476917228232705
I find this handy chart (from the Telegraph) useful:0 -
I picture a Malcolm Tucker style 'suggestion' that it might be appropriate to step down.rottenborough said:
I guess we known John McD is working a Saturday then.Scrapheap_as_was said:Resignations continue.... oh hang on...
https://twitter.com/SamCoatesTimes/status/10688882607709634600 -
Kate Osamor's tweeted statement.
https://twitter.com/KateOsamor/status/1068889478905892866
Short and sweet.0 -
More likely the fishing industry would do what it did before and flog post-Brexit quotas to Spanish trawlers -- unless the government plans to subsidise the development of a modern British fishing fleet, which seems unlikely.rkrkrk said:
A lot of the discards used to be fish that people didn't want to eat. There's been some good campaigning to get people eating unpopular fish like gurnard.IanB2 said:
Too true, And all this talk of "keeping our fish" ignores the fact that the herring and mackerel caught in UK waters aren't to British taste (75% of the UK catch is exported, much to the EU) with most of the fare served across the counters of our "British" fish and chip shops being imported, much from the EU.rkrkrk said:
The CFP gets a bad press, but it is actually helping fish stocks recover. The biggest problem is politicians ignoring the science and allowing overfishing.ydoethur said:
Although given the vast, unneeded, and probably irreversible ecological damage it has caused, arguably an ability to leave the CFP is one of the more understandable reasons for being a Leaver.IanB2 said:
Exactly. Having a column for the fishing industry, which employees fewer people than Harrods, and not for the economic implications upon which the jobs of many depend, is not a balanced assessment.Benpointer said:
Nice chart... but it could do with another column headed "Avoids trashing the economy" - May's Deal = moderate yes; No Deal = strong nogeoffw said:GIN1138 said:Good piece David (as usual)
Henceforth we're ARLTB - All Road's Lead To Brexit
https://twitter.com/commonslibrary/status/1068476917228232705
I find this handy chart (from the Telegraph) useful:
I worry that in the excitement at taking back control, we will return to overfishing.0 -
Both would leave you picking up a country in economic (No Deal) or political (No Brexit) turmoil. But it's academic cos there wouldn't be a GE in such a situation.SandyRentool said:
Either a No Deal Brexit or No Brexit will tear the Tories apart. That is our best route to No. 10Benpointer said:
You've more chance of a Labour government by approving May's deal for the following reasons:SandyRentool said:
Rejecting May's deal increases the chances of a Labour government. That’s why we aren't supporting it.Benpointer said:
Indeed. Funny though, how even this biased Telegraph chart makes TM's deal look the best option.IanB2 said:
Exactly. Having a column for the fishing industry, which employees fewer people than Harrods, and not for the economic implications upon which the jobs of many depend, is not a balanced assessment.Benpointer said:
Nice chart... but it could do with another column headed "Avoids trashing the economy" - May's Deal = moderate yes; No Deal = strong nogeoffw said:GIN1138 said:Good piece David (as usual)
Henceforth we're ARLTB - All Road's Lead To Brexit
https://twitter.com/commonslibrary/status/1068476917228232705
I find this handy chart (from the Telegraph) useful:
Apols for shouting this but:
I HAVE YET TO HEAR A SINGLE CONVINCING ARGUMENT WHY MAY'S DEAL SHOULD NOT BE SUPPORTED.
That is a convincing enough argument from where I sit.
1. Rejecting the deal and heading for no deal won't might remove May but won't remove the the Tories.
2. Approving the deal will put the DUP in a position where they would very likely pull support for the government and support a VoNC (the only way you can get an early GE).
3. Labour will fare better in a GE once Brexit is (significantly) settled - when voters will focus on the mess the Tories have made of public services.0 -
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There is already economic divergence, but peace seems to be holding.williamglenn said:
Look at the bigger picture. Do you think economic divergence on the island of Ireland is consistent with the peace settlement?RobD said:
I don't think the GFA precludes customs checks on the border.FF43 said:
I think the Withdrawal Agreement is decent as far as it goes. I also think the Irish border backstop is necessary. It forces us to confront the Irish border issue, when we pretended there's no problem and we made no commitment to maintaining a soft GFA border.RobD said:
There was a twitter thread posted here a week or so ago showing that it was more balanced than that. Both sides have made concessions, it's not true to say the EU just said "no" until they got what they want.FF43 said:
The Withdrawal Agreement should be supported because we don't have a real choice and never have done. Incidentally it isn't May's Deal. It's EU Demands, which haven't changed hugely over the past two years. They have added Level Playing Field requirements. Otherwise it's money, citizens' rights and Irish border provisions for a two year extension of the status quo and subsequent negotiations on the final arrangement.Benpointer said:
Indeed. Funny though, how even this biased Telegraph chart makes TM's deal look the best option.IanB2 said:
Exactly. Having a column for the fishing industry, which employees fewer people than Harrods, and not for the economic implications upon which the jobs of many depend, is not a balanced assessment.Benpointer said:
Nice chart... but it could do with another column headed "Avoids trashing the economy" - May's Deal = moderate yes; No Deal = strong nogeoffw said:GIN1138 said:Good piece David (as usual)
Henceforth we're ARLTB - All Road's Lead To Brexit
https://twitter.com/commonslibrary/status/1068476917228232705
I find this handy chart (from the Telegraph) useful:
Apols for shouting this but:
I HAVE YET TO HEAR A SINGLE CONVINCING ARGUMENT WHY MAY'S DEAL SHOULD NOT BE SUPPORTED.
The Political Statement isn't worth the paper it's written on but there is nevertheless no reason to support it.0 -
It's poured cold water over her future ambitions.dr_spyn said:Kate Osamor's tweeted statement.
https://twitter.com/KateOsamor/status/1068889478905892866
Short and sweet.
Ah, my coat..0 -
https://twitter.com/danbloom1/status/1068895643119362050
Some curious omissions, but perhaps the story isn't over.0 -
There is barely a dry eye across the nation at this loss.dr_spyn said:Kate Osamor's tweeted statement.
https://twitter.com/KateOsamor/status/1068889478905892866
Short and sweet.0 -
Perhaps that sort out is W-A-Y overdue?SandyRentool said:I've sorted out some old books to donate to charity. One of them is titled 'The Euro - Should Britain Join?'. Perhaps it is time for a second edition?
0 -
No. DAVID Miliband - that would be a story...rottenborough said:0 -
BBC - HS2 rail chairman Sir Terry Morgan tells BBC he expects to be sacked within days, months after getting job.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-464144770 -
NI will do well out of the FTZ afforded by the backstop if we do diverge. In any case it's possible NI would do better integrated into the Irish economy than as a stranded satellite of the UK economy.John_M said:
If you read the FT article I linked yesterday, economic divergence has already taken place, very much to NI's disadvantage.williamglenn said:
Look at the bigger picture. Do you think economic divergence on the island of Ireland is consistent with the peace settlement?RobD said:
I don't think the GFA precludes customs checks on the border.FF43 said:
I think the Withdrawal Agreement is decent as far as it goes. I also think the Irish border backstop is necessary. It forces us to confront the Irish border issue, when we pretended there's no problem and we made no commitment to maintaining a soft GFA border.RobD said:
There was a twitter thread posted here a week or so ago showing that it was more balanced than that. Both sides have made concessions, it's not true to say the EU just said "no" until they got what they want.FF43 said:
The Political Statement isn't worth the paper it's written on but there is nevertheless no reason to support it.Benpointer said:
Indeed. Funny though, how even this biased Telegraph chart makes TM's deal look the best option.IanB2 said:
Exactly. Having a column for the fishing industry, which employees fewer people than Harrods, and not for the economic implications upon which the jobs of many depend, is not a balanced assessment.Benpointer said:
Nice chart... but it could do with another column headed "Avoids trashing the economy" - May's Deal = moderate yes; No Deal = strong nogeoffw said:GIN1138 said:Good piece David (as usual)
Henceforth we're ARLTB - All Road's Lead To Brexit
https://twitter.com/commonslibrary/status/1068476917228232705
I find this handy chart (from the Telegraph) useful:
Apols for shouting this but:
I HAVE YET TO HEAR A SINGLE CONVINCING ARGUMENT WHY MAY'S DEAL SHOULD NOT BE SUPPORTED.0 -
Looks that way.SandyRentool said:
I picture a Malcolm Tucker style 'suggestion' that it might be appropriate to step down.rottenborough said:
I guess we known John McD is working a Saturday then.Scrapheap_as_was said:Resignations continue.... oh hang on...
https://twitter.com/SamCoatesTimes/status/10688882607709634600 -
In truth either would pull the country apart, not just the conservativesBenpointer said:
Both would leave you picking up a country in economic (No Deal) or political (No Brexit) turmoil. But it's academic cos there wouldn't be a GE in such a situation.SandyRentool said:
Either a No Deal Brexit or No Brexit will tear the Tories apart. That is our best route to No. 10Benpointer said:
You've more chance of a Labour government by approving May's deal for the following reasons:SandyRentool said:
Rejecting May's deal increases the chances of a Labour government. That’s why we aren't supporting it.Benpointer said:
Indeed. Funny though, how even this biased Telegraph chart makes TM's deal look the best option.IanB2 said:
Exactly. Having a column for the fishing industry, which employees fewer people than Harrods, and not for the economic implications upon which the jobs of many depend, is not a balanced assessment.Benpointer said:
Nice chart... but it could do with another column headed "Avoids trashing the economy" - May's Deal = moderate yes; No Deal = strong nogeoffw said:GIN1138 said:Good piece David (as usual)
Henceforth we're ARLTB - All Road's Lead To Brexit
https://twitter.com/commonslibrary/status/1068476917228232705
I find this handy chart (from the Telegraph) useful:
Apols for shouting this but:
I HAVE YET TO HEAR A SINGLE CONVINCING ARGUMENT WHY MAY'S DEAL SHOULD NOT BE SUPPORTED.
That is a convincing enough argument from where I sit.
1. Rejecting the deal and heading for no deal won't might remove May but won't remove the the Tories.
2. Approving the deal will put the DUP in a position where they would very likely pull support for the government and support a VoNC (the only way you can get an early GE).
3. Labour will fare better in a GE once Brexit is (significantly) settled - when voters will focus on the mess the Tories have made of public services.0 -
Osamor's resignation is the absolute stone cold definition of 'weasel'.0
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An Irish commentator said the other day they do not want unification as they could not afford the 11 billion euros annual billFF43 said:
NI will do well out of the FTZ afforded by the backstop if we do diverge. In any case it's possible NI would do better integrated into the Irish economy than as a stranded satellite of the UK economy.John_M said:
If you read the FT article I linked yesterday, economic divergence has already taken place, very much to NI's disadvantage.williamglenn said:
Look at the bigger picture. Do you think economic divergence on the island of Ireland is consistent with the peace settlement?RobD said:
I don't think the GFA precludes customs checks on the border.FF43 said:
I think the Withdrawal Agreement is decent as far as it goes. I also think the Irish border backstop is necessary. It forces us to confront the Irish border issue, when we pretended there's no problem and we made no commitment to maintaining a soft GFA border.RobD said:
There was a twitter thread posted here a week or so ago showing that it was more balanced than that. Both sides have made concessions, it's not true to say the EU just said "no" until they got what they want.FF43 said:
The Political Statement isn't worth the paper it's written on but there is nevertheless no reason to support it.Benpointer said:
Indeed. Funny though, how even this biased Telegraph chart makes TM's deal look the best option.IanB2 said:
Exactly. Having a column for the fishing industry, which employees fewer people than Harrods, and not for the economic implications upon which the jobs of many depend, is not a balanced assessment.Benpointer said:
Nice chart... but it could do with another column headed "Avoids trashing the economy" - May's Deal = moderate yes; No Deal = strong nogeoffw said:GIN1138 said:Good piece David (as usual)
Henceforth we're ARLTB - All Road's Lead To Brexit
https://twitter.com/commonslibrary/status/1068476917228232705
I find this handy chart (from the Telegraph) useful:
Apols for shouting this but:
I HAVE YET TO HEAR A SINGLE CONVINCING ARGUMENT WHY MAY'S DEAL SHOULD NOT BE SUPPORTED.0 -
What percentage of trade needs to be with an entity before you reach this "vassal state" status? 50%? 40%? 30%? 20%?FF43 said:
The only realistic eventual options IMO are EU membership and the Vassal State.
Would Canada be better off joining the USA? Should Britain join the USA? We'd almost certainly converge to a higher income per capita as State 51 than as an EU member.
It strikes me as quite realistic to expect the share of the UK's trade that's with the EU to fall to about one third of the total once Brexit has bedded in - the proportion is already well under half and on a long-term decline, and EU membership does prop it up somewhat. In the long run, most of the world's economic growth is going to be outside Europe while the cost of transport/travel is likely to continue its decline as a barrier to trade.
It's also conceivable that UK trade with the USA may reach a similar ball-park to trade with the EU. The US economy has outgrown the Eurozone over the past few decades (from almost identical in the mid-nineties to the US being around 25% bigger in real terms today) and has much bigger upside in terms of physical space, resources and potential for population growth (particularly if there's a post-Trump liberal backlash on immigration policy - if the tendency towards tighter borders persists then not so much!). For some kinds of trade, the smaller cultural distance, including linguistic and legal, matters more than the geographic
distance. This doesn't necessarily make things better - it might mean there are two big powers with sufficient leverage to bully Britain over trade, rather than just one! - but makes me somewhat sceptical of the simple inevitability of European vassalage.
Perhaps of greater interest would be the effect of diversification of our trade - what proportion of our trade ends up not being with one "big bloc" or another, but with countries of broadly similar or lesser clout in the world? The bigger this is, the less the risk or degree of vasalage. Again, I see the argument that EU membership benefits us because as part of a bigger team we get someone else to help us bully these parties into better terms. But the deeper and diverse your international trade links are then the less susceptible you are to control by one party. So long as trends continue to move towards greater trade liberalisation, towards more trade-enabling infrastructure and interconnectivity (which matters more to transport costs than raw geographical distances), towards harmonisation of regulations at a global level, and the world economy continues to grow, I wonder how much poorer we will feel compared to the counterfactual of staying in.0 -
Really? Funny how the Norwegians managed to maintain stocks outside the CFP whilst the EU oversaw collapses in fish stocks. Just look at the effect on the Irish Box after it was opened up to EU fishing.rkrkrk said:
The CFP gets a bad press, but it is actually helping fish stocks recover. The biggest problem is politicians ignoring the science and allowing overfishing.ydoethur said:
Although given the vast, unneeded, and probably irreversible ecological damage it has caused, arguably an ability to leave the CFP is one of the more understandable reasons for being a Leaver.IanB2 said:
Exactly. Having a column for the fishing industry, which employees fewer people than Harrods, and not for the economic implications upon which the jobs of many depend, is not a balanced assessment.Benpointer said:
Nice chart... but it could do with another column headed "Avoids trashing the economy" - May's Deal = moderate yes; No Deal = strong nogeoffw said:GIN1138 said:Good piece David (as usual)
Henceforth we're ARLTB - All Road's Lead To Brexit
https://twitter.com/commonslibrary/status/1068476917228232705
I find this handy chart (from the Telegraph) useful:0 -
I disagree there. Brexit would not be the dominant issue in a 5 or 6 week election campaign however obsessed the commentariat is with it. It is far too technical for most people who are heartily sick to death of the subject. Voters would again be very receptive to Corbyn - and others - raising matters to which they can much more readily relate.IanB2 said:
The only quibble is that Labour did well last time by turning what was called as a Brexit election into a contest about domestic issues of greater concern to voters. But I don't think they will be able to repeat that trick in an election called now under current circumstances.Benpointer said:
You've more chance of a Labour government by approving May's deal for the following reasons:SandyRentool said:
Rejecting May's deal increases the chances of a Labour government. That’s why we aren't supporting it.Benpointer said:
Indeed. Funny though, how even this biased Telegraph chart makes TM's deal look the best option.IanB2 said:
Exactly. Having a column for the fishing industry, which employees fewer people than Harrods, and not for the economic implications upon which the jobs of many depend, is not a balanced assessment.Benpointer said:
Nice chart... but it could do with another column headed "Avoids trashing the economy" - May's Deal = moderate yes; No Deal = strong nogeoffw said:GIN1138 said:Good piece David (as usual)
Henceforth we're ARLTB - All Road's Lead To Brexit
https://twitter.com/commonslibrary/status/1068476917228232705
I find this handy chart (from the Telegraph) useful:
Apols for shouting this but:
I HAVE YET TO HEAR A SINGLE CONVINCING ARGUMENT WHY MAY'S DEAL SHOULD NOT BE SUPPORTED.
That is a convincing enough argument from where I sit.
1. Rejecting the deal and heading for no deal won't might remove May but won't remove the the Tories.
2. Approving the deal will put the DUP in a position where they would very likely pull support for the government and support a VoNC (the only way you can get an early GE).
3. Labour will fare better in a GE once Brexit is (significantly) settled - when voters will focus on the mess the Tories have made of public services.0 -
Corbyn trying to avoid working at a weekend?
https://twitter.com/jeremycorbyn/status/10688964028713697280 -
He is chickendr_spyn said:Corbyn trying to avoid working at a weekend?
https://twitter.com/jeremycorbyn/status/10688964028713697280 -
I'd back the chicken ahead of the robot.Big_G_NorthWales said:
He is chickendr_spyn said:Corbyn trying to avoid working at a weekend?
https://twitter.com/jeremycorbyn/status/10688964028713697280 -
Bit difficult if he is empty chairedSandyRentool said:
I'd back the chicken ahead of the robot.Big_G_NorthWales said:
He is chickendr_spyn said:Corbyn trying to avoid working at a weekend?
https://twitter.com/jeremycorbyn/status/10688964028713697280 -
Mr. Rentool, depends on the robot. Hypnodisc would murder a chicken no problem at all.0
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That works both ways - and Theresa has a history of it.Big_G_NorthWales said:
He is chickendr_spyn said:Corbyn trying to avoid working at a weekend?
https://twitter.com/jeremycorbyn/status/10688964028713697280 -
Her focus on the detail would score better than his tendency to fall back on ranting/name callingSandyRentool said:
I'd back the chicken ahead of the robot.Big_G_NorthWales said:
He is chickendr_spyn said:Corbyn trying to avoid working at a weekend?
https://twitter.com/jeremycorbyn/status/1068896402871369728
He clearly doesn't want to debate - and is doing all he can to manage expectations
'I didn't win the debate but that was the fault of the format not me guv'0 -
In which case ITV should do the same to her.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Bit difficult if he is empty chairedSandyRentool said:
I'd back the chicken ahead of the robot.Big_G_NorthWales said:
He is chickendr_spyn said:Corbyn trying to avoid working at a weekend?
https://twitter.com/jeremycorbyn/status/10688964028713697280 -
@ steve garner
Yes the term No Deal is meant in different ways depending on the context and on who is using it. If you are going to include it in a referendum it will have to be defined and I don't see how anything other than its literal meaning will be suitable for that purpose. So that is no withdrawal agreement, hence no transition. Crash out on 29 March 2019, free at last, free at last.
You can't have that extreme version of Brexit as a binary versus Remain. It stacks the deck. The whole exercise would be seen quite rightly as a scam to discard the 2016 vote.0 -
But this time it is Corbyn running scared of having to declare a coherrent position under interrogationjustin124 said:
That works both ways - and Theresa has a history of it.Big_G_NorthWales said:
He is chickendr_spyn said:Corbyn trying to avoid working at a weekend?
https://twitter.com/jeremycorbyn/status/10688964028713697280 -
Why - she is the PM and challenged him.justin124 said:
In which case ITV should do the same to her.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Bit difficult if he is empty chairedSandyRentool said:
I'd back the chicken ahead of the robot.Big_G_NorthWales said:
He is chickendr_spyn said:Corbyn trying to avoid working at a weekend?
https://twitter.com/jeremycorbyn/status/1068896402871369728
He is ducking and weaving as he has little idea of the subject. He even admits he hasn't read the WDA0 -
But there is no precedent for a debate between party leaders outside an election period. The idea is a load of nonsense , and nothing more than an attempt by May to divert attention from her failure and obvious weakness.Big_G_NorthWales said:
But this time it is Corbyn running scared of having to declare a coherrent position under interrogationjustin124 said:
That works both ways - and Theresa has a history of it.Big_G_NorthWales said:
He is chickendr_spyn said:Corbyn trying to avoid working at a weekend?
https://twitter.com/jeremycorbyn/status/10688964028713697280 -
Because she appears to be refusing to appear on ITV!Big_G_NorthWales said:
Why - she is the PM and challenged him.justin124 said:
In which case ITV should do the same to her.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Bit difficult if he is empty chairedSandyRentool said:
I'd back the chicken ahead of the robot.Big_G_NorthWales said:
He is chickendr_spyn said:Corbyn trying to avoid working at a weekend?
https://twitter.com/jeremycorbyn/status/1068896402871369728
He is ducking and weaving as he has little idea of the subject. He even admits he hasn't read the WDA0 -
I don't doubt that Norway have done a great job, there's a lot we can learn from them.Richard_Tyndall said:
Really? Funny how the Norwegians managed to maintain stocks outside the CFP whilst the EU oversaw collapses in fish stocks. Just look at the effect on the Irish Box after it was opened up to EU fishing.rkrkrk said:
The CFP gets a bad press, but it is actually helping fish stocks recover. The biggest problem is politicians ignoring the science and allowing overfishing.ydoethur said:
Although given the vast, unneeded, and probably irreversible ecological damage it has caused, arguably an ability to leave the CFP is one of the more understandable reasons for being a Leaver.IanB2 said:
Exactly. Having a column for the fishing industry, which employees fewer people than Harrods, and not for the economic implications upon which the jobs of many depend, is not a balanced assessment.Benpointer said:
Nice chart... but it could do with another column headed "Avoids trashing the economy" - May's Deal = moderate yes; No Deal = strong nogeoffw said:GIN1138 said:Good piece David (as usual)
Henceforth we're ARLTB - All Road's Lead To Brexit
https://twitter.com/commonslibrary/status/1068476917228232705
I find this handy chart (from the Telegraph) useful:0 -
Mr. 124, I agree the 'debate' is only occurring because of May's weakness. But she is the PM, and the one proposing a deal. Corbyn demanding she change formats and channel and join him is unlikely to be seen as reasonable, I suspect.0
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No - she was presented with options and made a choice. That is no refusing.justin124 said:
Because she appears to be refusing to appear on ITV!Big_G_NorthWales said:
Why - she is the PM and challenged him.justin124 said:
In which case ITV should do the same to her.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Bit difficult if he is empty chairedSandyRentool said:
I'd back the chicken ahead of the robot.Big_G_NorthWales said:
He is chickendr_spyn said:Corbyn trying to avoid working at a weekend?
https://twitter.com/jeremycorbyn/status/1068896402871369728
He is ducking and weaving as he has little idea of the subject. He even admits he hasn't read the WDA
Corbyn came up with some specious nonsense about 'respecting' I'm A Celeb viewers and is now quibbling about the format.
It is May's debate - she called it. She gets to set the terms. Corbyn has to live with it.0 -
NEW THREAD
0 -
That is a non sequitur. Did any of the party leaders get to set the rules of Debate at the elections of 2010, 2015 & 2017? If they cannot agree a format, then it will not happen.oxfordsimon said:
No - she was presented with options and made a choice. That is no refusing.justin124 said:
Because she appears to be refusing to appear on ITV!Big_G_NorthWales said:
Why - she is the PM and challenged him.justin124 said:
In which case ITV should do the same to her.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Bit difficult if he is empty chairedSandyRentool said:
I'd back the chicken ahead of the robot.Big_G_NorthWales said:
He is chickendr_spyn said:Corbyn trying to avoid working at a weekend?
https://twitter.com/jeremycorbyn/status/1068896402871369728
He is ducking and weaving as he has little idea of the subject. He even admits he hasn't read the WDA
Corbyn came up with some specious nonsense about 'respecting' I'm A Celeb viewers and is now quibbling about the format.
It is May's debate - she called it. She gets to set the terms. Corbyn has to live with it.0 -
This isn't an election debate. May challenged Corbyn to debate one issue and one issue alone. Broadcasters pitched their ideas. She chose one - as is her right as the person calling the debate. He is now doing everything possible to get out of it.justin124 said:
That is a non sequitur. Did any of the party leaders get to set the rules of Debate at the elections of 2010, 2015 & 2017? If they cannot agree a format, then it will not happen.oxfordsimon said:
No - she was presented with options and made a choice. That is no refusing.justin124 said:
Because she appears to be refusing to appear on ITV!Big_G_NorthWales said:
Why - she is the PM and challenged him.justin124 said:
In which case ITV should do the same to her.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Bit difficult if he is empty chairedSandyRentool said:
I'd back the chicken ahead of the robot.Big_G_NorthWales said:
He is chickendr_spyn said:Corbyn trying to avoid working at a weekend?
https://twitter.com/jeremycorbyn/status/1068896402871369728
He is ducking and weaving as he has little idea of the subject. He even admits he hasn't read the WDA
Corbyn came up with some specious nonsense about 'respecting' I'm A Celeb viewers and is now quibbling about the format.
It is May's debate - she called it. She gets to set the terms. Corbyn has to live with it.
You don't want to admit the truth of this.0 -
No party leader should be obliged to accept the terms of debate imposed by another party leader - or by the broadcasters. May chose one option - Corbyn went for another. If they cannot agree, it simply won't happen and I doubt that the public will care less.oxfordsimon said:
This isn't an election debate. May challenged Corbyn to debate one issue and one issue alone. Broadcasters pitched their ideas. She chose one - as is her right as the person calling the debate. He is now doing everything possible to get out of it.justin124 said:
That is a non sequitur. Did any of the party leaders get to set the rules of Debate at the elections of 2010, 2015 & 2017? If they cannot agree a format, then it will not happen.oxfordsimon said:
No - she was presented with options and made a choice. That is no refusing.justin124 said:
Because she appears to be refusing to appear on ITV!Big_G_NorthWales said:
Why - she is the PM and challenged him.justin124 said:
In which case ITV should do the same to her.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Bit difficult if he is empty chairedSandyRentool said:
I'd back the chicken ahead of the robot.Big_G_NorthWales said:
He is chickendr_spyn said:Corbyn trying to avoid working at a weekend?
https://twitter.com/jeremycorbyn/status/1068896402871369728
He is ducking and weaving as he has little idea of the subject. He even admits he hasn't read the WDA
Corbyn came up with some specious nonsense about 'respecting' I'm A Celeb viewers and is now quibbling about the format.
It is May's debate - she called it. She gets to set the terms. Corbyn has to live with it.
You don't want to admit the truth of this.0 -
That is a very naive view of the reality of the current situation.justin124 said:
No party leader should be obliged to accept the terms of debate imposed by another party leader - or by the broadcasters. May chose one option - Corbyn went for another. If they cannot agree, it simply won't happen and I doubt that the public will care less.oxfordsimon said:
This isn't an election debate. May challenged Corbyn to debate one issue and one issue alone. Broadcasters pitched their ideas. She chose one - as is her right as the person calling the debate. He is now doing everything possible to get out of it.justin124 said:
That is a non sequitur. Did any of the party leaders get to set the rules of Debate at the elections of 2010, 2015 & 2017? If they cannot agree a format, then it will not happen.oxfordsimon said:
No - she was presented with options and made a choice. That is no refusing.justin124 said:
Because she appears to be refusing to appear on ITV!Big_G_NorthWales said:
Why - she is the PM and challenged him.justin124 said:
In which case ITV should do the same to her.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Bit difficult if he is empty chairedSandyRentool said:
I'd back the chicken ahead of the robot.Big_G_NorthWales said:
He is chickendr_spyn said:Corbyn trying to avoid working at a weekend?
https://twitter.com/jeremycorbyn/status/1068896402871369728
He is ducking and weaving as he has little idea of the subject. He even admits he hasn't read the WDA
Corbyn came up with some specious nonsense about 'respecting' I'm A Celeb viewers and is now quibbling about the format.
It is May's debate - she called it. She gets to set the terms. Corbyn has to live with it.
You don't want to admit the truth of this.
This was a direct personal challenge. If he walks away, he is the one who suffers.0 -
Not at all - May is the one desperate for the debate not Corbyn.oxfordsimon said:
That is a very naive view of the reality of the current situation.justin124 said:
No party leader should be obliged to accept the terms of debate imposed by another party leader - or by the broadcasters. May chose one option - Corbyn went for another. If they cannot agree, it simply won't happen and I doubt that the public will care less.oxfordsimon said:
This isn't an election debate. May challenged Corbyn to debate one issue and one issue alone. Broadcasters pitched their ideas. She chose one - as is her right as the person calling the debate. He is now doing everything possible to get out of it.justin124 said:
That is a non sequitur. Did any of the party leaders get to set the rules of Debate at the elections of 2010, 2015 & 2017? If they cannot agree a format, then it will not happen.oxfordsimon said:
No - she was presented with options and made a choice. That is no refusing.justin124 said:
Because she appears to be refusing to appear on ITV!Big_G_NorthWales said:
Why - she is the PM and challenged him.justin124 said:
In which case ITV should do the same to her.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Bit difficult if he is empty chairedSandyRentool said:
I'd back the chicken ahead of the robot.Big_G_NorthWales said:
He is chickendr_spyn said:Corbyn trying to avoid working at a weekend?
https://twitter.com/jeremycorbyn/status/1068896402871369728
He is ducking and weaving as he has little idea of the subject. He even admits he hasn't read the WDA
Corbyn came up with some specious nonsense about 'respecting' I'm A Celeb viewers and is now quibbling about the format.
It is May's debate - she called it. She gets to set the terms. Corbyn has to live with it.
You don't want to admit the truth of this.
This was a direct personal challenge. If he walks away, he is the one who suffers.0
This discussion has been closed.