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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » There are four Brexit options and Remain is the least likely
Brexit ignorancis is a nasty little disease. Symptoms include the sufferer becoming breathless, exhibiting undue certainty in their pronouncements, asserting without evidence, disregarding evidence that’s inconvenient, suffering a loss of hearing and developing a fondness for tweed. Unfortunately, not only do mild cases not develop immunity but they leave the victim more prone to further, and more serious bouts.
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Thank you Mr H.
This is a process created by legislators that can be stopped the same way.
Not sure whether to recommend this article to you or not;
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2018/nov/26/deported-rogue-trader-kweku-adoboli-first-time-free-seven-years-home-office-ghana
But I think you may find it - of interest, as long as your blood pressure can take it.
All hangs on May’s response following the loss of the first vote, which I think is baked in.
Will she announce some superficial changes to the Deal to allow the Tory nayers to back down?
A referendum to pass the deal with cross party support?
Or pivot to EFTA for same?
Michael Gove's Mail piece is ostensibly aimed at Brexiteers -- support May's deal or risk no Brexit. That might be read as an appeal to Remainers to vote down May's deal for the same reason.
Second is that Theresa May's behaviour over the last six months looks as if she is preparing for a general election, let alone a second referendum.
Though as David Herdson's OP (and most recent threads) make clear, we are in uncharted waters.
Doesn't that mean that repeated can kicking over the exit date is written into legislation and can be used?
I do raise a minor objection to your section on remain - laws can be amended simply and quickly. Once the government has lost the confidence of the house there are mechanisms for a simple one line revocation of the relevant bit of the Withdrawal Act to be brought to the house and passed whether the government likes it or not.
What May does after the defeat of her deal will be the relevant bit. This IS a confidence motion in the old way of things. Whi,at the FTPA means it no longer formally is a confidence motion, in practice it is hard to see how even the most stubborn PM can resist having been so heavily defeated - and if an attempt is made to dig heels in and insist "that's it, no deal, nothing else is possible" then I expect MPs across the House to demonstrate that she is wrong.
The lack of curiosity by journalists who just act as the PR arm for whoever they can get to talk to them is another depressing aspect of this affair.
If you want a rather more sane view on the harm people like him do see this - http://barry-walsh.co.uk/news/.
Oh - and good morning.
A shame about the rain in London. I was planning on doing some gardening. I shall just have to get wet.
He clearly hasn't changed and won't be changing. I feel sorry for Ghana.
As for the subject matter everyone is calling it for a Wilder knockout and who’s to say they’re wrong. Can Fury avoid the bombs for 12 rounds? Not likely and I can’t see Fury being allowed to outbox Wilder for 12 rounds but people rate Fury also (me less so) and I’m sitting it out betting-wise and will just enjoy the fight.
In practice, the same dynamics will apply on trade, agriculture and fisheries, though the EU may also want continuing payments and some FOM.
Those sick of interminable Brexit debates, are going to be sick for a long while yet. Meanwhile the rest of the issues facing the country continue to be neglected.
Norway pays four categories; one is necessary for membership of the Single Market, the others are optional for membership of various programmes.
EEA Grants (Single Market): 390 million Euros. Converted to pounds and scaled up by 6.57, this is £2.27bn (£43.6 million per week)
Multiple programmes (including Erasmus, Galileo, Copernicus, Horizon 2020 and others): 447 million euors. Equates to £2.6 billion if the UK went there; £50 million per week.
Schengen, Home, Justice: 6 million Euros. I doubt we'd want to play and pay for this, but would be £0.033bn (£0.6 million per week)
INTERREG contributions: 25 million Euros. Converted and scaled, this is £0.145bn, or £2.8 million per week
If we chose to be involved in everything other than Schengen/Home/Justice, we'd end up paying just over £5bn per year, or £96.5 million per week.
I reckon that could be sold; it's a hell of a lot less than £350 million per week.
In some ways this wouldn't be a bad outcome in that it would centre people's minds in a way nothing else seems able to do.
Have a good morning...
One reason May might go for a referendum is legacy. If things go wrong with No Deal, she'll be the one pilloried.
Unfortunately, the decision-makers are the politicians, the voters are a mere nuisance, as always, What does TM want to happen? A quiet life, the can kicked down the road, and the appearance of honouring the referendum result. The deal will achieve that.
What does the Labour party want? Power and the red boxes. Hence awkwardness is their friend and confusion their aim. Stopping Brexit is a necessity and blaming that on TM achieves everything.
What does the EU want? Losing the UK would be a minor disaster, both economically and as encouragement to others. Having them reverse Brexit and beg to be allowed back - a major coup. The best way to do that is to delay as much as possible, giving nothing away, bog down any progress and do what they do best - wait out the opposition. Eventually they'll give up in frustration. Their cunning but predictable plan is going well, especially as some UK Remainers just want their own way and will never accept losing.
What do the voters want? That's always been irrelevant.
And even without the compulsive behaviour, it has long been argued within the City or Wall Street that institutional moral hazard leads to the same outcome: a trader facing career-destroying losses should rationally play double or quits.
Then there is the deportation itself. It is hard to see what is the point of it, or what the objection to it is. Britain is not made safer by it, but Ghana is hardly a war zone.
"and unlike a No Deal drifted into by default for lack of support for any alternative, a No Deal mandated by the public could not be escaped from after a few days or weeks of crisis"
If we were to crash out with No Deal, and the disruption is severe - it doesn't necessarily have to be as catastrophic as some of the scenarios banded about; a food shortage (temporary or otherwise), congestion at ports, near-collapse of a chunk of firms, temporary closures of some factories like Mini and Honda, financial markets plummeting, exchange rates going to parity or below with the euro or even the dollar, that sort of thing - there could be an outcry to do something. Whether that's to belatedly ratify the WA and hope the EU will accept that [spoiler - they almost certainly would], or even to somehow try to get straight back in [I'd rate that as unlikely on both sides, but a lot of stranger things have happened].
God only knows what the political landscape would be like after that. It could even be that we look back at the current period as having been boring and predictable in comparison.
The EU is evil. That’s a sound starting point. You want to leave it. Obviously. There is a strong consensus that a no deal Brexit is bad, weirdly enough. It seems there is the chance of a second referendum. Plus side more braying, too many downsides. Hmmm
It is possible that logic (I know, I know) might lead to a need for a vote in favour of ND and then a reluctant acceptance of compromise. Can the whips office and the ever so helpful Speaker arrange that?
I say 'delivered'. They didn't actually get the right house. Instead of driving up, they dumped it at the house at the bottom of the street, so the dog food had to be carried back home.
What’s puzzling about the scenarios shown in Figure 1 is that they show these disruptions going on for multiple years, with barely any abatement. Really? Britain is an advanced country with high administrative capacity — the kind of country that history shows can cope well with huge natural disasters, and even wars. Would it really have that much trouble hiring customs inspectors and installing computers to recover from an 8 or 10 percent drop in GDP?
And even in the short run, I wonder why Britain couldn’t follow the old prescription, “When all else fails, lower your standards.” If laxer enforcement, special treatment for trusted shippers, whatever, could clear the bottlenecks at the ports, wouldn’t that be worth it, despite the potential for fraud, as a temporary measure?
https://www.nytimes.com/2018/11/30/opinion/brexit-borders-and-the-bank-of-england-wonkish.html
Useful summary of mechanics, but I'm not so sure about the probabilities. Once upon a day we saId the difficulties with a 2017 General Election were that May had ruled it out, the parties didn't have the money or the plans, the fixed terms parliament act would make it very difficult and Corbyn wouldn't back an election so far behind in the polls.
All swept away in 2 days when it came to it.
But what is emerging is quite how much power Theresa May will have just following the meaningful vote defeat. I'm less sure than others that the 48 letters will come in, but she's still first in line to make a pivot and does have choices available.
Firstly, and most obviously, David is wrong on the effect of section 1 of the European Union (Withdrawal) Act 2018, because the section he cites (section 1) is not yet in force. It requires secondary legislation under section 25 of the same Act, and this hasn't been laid.
Secondly, he's misinterpreted the decision in the Miller case in 2017. The point of that case is that prerogative powers did not extend to a power to do something which would change the position on applicability of EU law in the UK. The passing of the 1972 Act had extinguished the prerogative power because (per the De Keyser Hotel case in 1920). However, withdrawing an Article 50 notice by definition does NOT change the position on applicability of EU law in the UK, which would continue on 30 March exactly as it did on 29 March.
"The former UBS trader was jailed for seven years in 2012 after being found guilty of fraud that cost the bank $2.3bn (£1.8bn). .........
"In Ghana the concept of restorative justice exists, .....People here are saying to me: ‘We need your skills......... It’s not right or fair the way you were treated in the UK. Everyone makes mistakes........"
Well it made me laugh.
She is on the road to recovery (sepsis and an abscess on her spinal cord).. Not much fun..... If I had seen the Yodel driver I would have given him a piece of my mind.
I presume the strategy for them now is wait for a failed first vote and then, assuming May agrees with neither of above, make another attempt to roll her and replace her with Davis, Johnson, or Javid.
It’s not clear what the rational ERGer strategy is, perhaps because irrationality is the ERG hallmark...
“I don’t have much use for my waxed Barbour coat here,” he says. “It’s hanging in the wardrobe.
It is the best Guardian Article for a long time ... the best since the "Brexit Will Causes a Au Pair Shortage" one.
Early January - Government loses VONC (with some Tory Remainers voting against the Government and in support of a GONU see below).
Within 14 days - Corbyn tries and fails to form government that has the confidence of the House
Within same 14 days - temporary "Government of National Unity" lead by Grieve (or someone else without ambition but respected across parties) gains the confidence of the House on a platform of a) asking for an extension of A50 b) enabling a second referendum c) holding a general election when the result of the referendum is known - and introduces the relevant legislation.
It was horrible and if she hadn't been sick in the DR's surgery and the Doctor hadnt realised immediately it was sepsis (We think as a result of a cut from a rose thorn) she might not be here. as it was it was 999 straight to Worthing Hospital bypassing A and E straight to a ward and IV antibiotics immediately..... NHS was wonderful as was Worthing Hospital.. No wonder its rated outstanding by the CQC
Delivery drivers are the serfs at the sharp end of the gig economy though. Given demanding schedules and often having to cover their own sickness periods etc. These are the service jobs that allow the internet companies to undercut the High St. Blame the system not the worker.
https://www.wired.co.uk/article/gig-economy-dpd-courier-taylor-review
Great picture on the header BTW, Someone teasing @DH?
Any conservative mp voting against the government in a vnoc will not contest their seat again and their career in the party will be over - hence most unlikely
On topic, we've somewhat neglected the 48 letter issue since Rees-Mogg's charge failed, but it's presumably a constraint on what May does if the Meaningful Vote fails. I'm sure it's right that she will announce something at once, but what? The Mayish thing to do would be to kick the can once more, announcing that she will take the particular concerns that have been raised back to Brussels, and report back at the beginning of January on what she has achieved. Further time will pass (hooray), the EU will agree to tweak this and that (hooray), time for anything else will have virtually run out before No Deal (what a shame) and it will give cover to opponents to say "Oh, well, I suppose so".
What can opponents of the deal do about this? Brexiteers can't easily unseat her at that moment, since she's saying she'll try to tweak the thing helpfully, even if they don't believe it. Remainers will see her coming and will try to force a referendum. But to be effective they need to (a) get a motion passed instructing her to organise it and (b) back it up with a credible threat of a VONC if she defies Parliament (arguing lack of time, divisiveness etc.). I can just about see (a) happening, with an almost united opposition plus some Tories, but the Tories will probably not be up for (b).
So my feeling is that she'll get it through in the end, with some meaningless tweaks in the grand tradition of Harold Wilson's renegotiation. And it'll be quite popular for a while ("wow, she finally did it, now we can move on"), despite the fact that maybe 80% of MPs actually think it's worse than membership. However, the Tories then have the problem that she will actually be quite hard to unseat at all, as it'll be seen as a desperate move by a discredited wing of the party against a leader who has proved surprisingly successful. So she'll still be there, negotiating the next stages, kicking the cans relentlessly onwards.
One of the main symptoms of Brexit ignorancis is raving & delirious fantasies about the future in which everything magically resolves itself to allow the patient to attain the desired Brexit or Bremain outcome.
This is a good example.
And, even if everything worked out the Barnesian way, what kind of defeated, embittered and battered country do you really think you will inherit -- after a highly divisive and contested referendum, followed by a General Election (which if the polls are right, won't lead to a very decisive result and a stable Government)?
Really what we need are big leads for no deal. A number mps all over might think very carefully if they thought remain might lose.
It's a good, detailed piece by Mr Herdson but ultimately mps are acting like They think It is easy to do anything. How much is posturing? Less than we think is my guess. We're looking at possibly a defeat by 200 as the payroll and loyalist vote dwindles, that kind of tsunami is not just virtue signalling.
It nearly beggars belief that many people, including mps, have the plan now of 'trust me it'll work out the way I want because I want it to.' And often the same people who criticise leavers or the ERG for not having sound plans Other lying self seeking toerags? His audience is other mps really.
However, the European Parliamentary elections are a practical barrier to an extension beyond May, as whether Britain is still a member of the EU will affect not only whether British MEPs can be elected but how many would be elected from other countries.
google "Why Donald Trump wants Theresa May to fail on Brexit" to get past the paywall.
And before I forget, #peoplesvote.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-46399707
"If online shoppers spend more than about £27 (€30 under the EU directive) in one transaction, payment providers will be required to ask for an extra form of verification, usually sent as a one-time password by text to your mobile phone."
No coverage or mobile? Bad luck.
Carney's job is to prevent recession. Krugman's accusation of pessimism is strange, I think.
If she does not quit she will lose the vote.
It sounds as if the extra verification does not have to be via mobile.
Fair enough for the BoE to model the impact of severe disruption at the border, but its not credible that the government would be unable to solve such problems for years. That's like stress testing for boiling an egg burning your house down, and assuming you would just stand and watch, not call the fire brigade or turn the stove off.
Just catching up and see the usual suspects expecting TM to be out after the vote.
TM is the party's biggest asset at present, respected for her courtesy and persistance under intense attack from all sides and to attempt to vnoc would just fail at this critical moment
She is receiving increasing backing for her deal and the latest poll gives the party a 5% lead over labour and a 10 seat majority under electoral calculus.
It is widely expected she will lose the meaningful vote but this will depend on sequencing of the amendments and the flow chart points to no deal as default and it is this chart that is alarming remainers
It is high noon a week on tuesday and I do not think any of us really are able to predict the outcome, though of course we all tend to be influenced by our own opinions
The polls this weekend will be interesting
The position re the notification was that a government cannot by executive authority override the effect of an Act of Parliament. In this case, parliament has expressly granted the PM the power to withdraw the UK from the EU, which she has since done. To withdraw that notice - the power to do which is not granted by the Act, and hence must rely on pre-existing executive powers - would run counter to that same de Keyser principle.
Given the nature of the withdrawal bill, I suspect we'll be having Article 13 and this latest proposal even if we 'leave'. And given May's authoritarianism and the lack of respect and understanding of free speech and technology across the House of Commons, I can't see Article 13 being repealed.
It does sound like alternatives may be possible (on the mobile phone issue) but we'll see. My guess is it'll be a pain in the arse, which is how just about everything the EU/UK does on technology seems to go.
The only thing I am uncertain of is whether May really wants to continue after Brexit. It must be stressful even if you are built of reinforced concrete. She looks as though it has taken its toll on her.
"And it'll be quite popular for a while ("wow, she finally did it, now we can move on"),"
If she has any sense, she'll go then, saying "I have delivered on Brexit" and leave on a high (and probably with a modest polling lead of 5 or so per cent). OK, if Philip has any sense, he'll be telling her that ...