politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Survation-Daily Mail poll finds growing support for TMay’s Bre
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Ah thus speaks the zealot.Scott_P said:
That's the problem right there.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Jessop, nobody forced her to sign up to the backstop, or to proceed on the basis of staying as close as possible to the EU rather than trying to maximise the advantages of leaving.
There are no advantages to leaving.
Importing chlorinated chicken from the US is not an advantage.
Abandoning workers' rights and environmental standards is not an advantage.0 -
Disgraced national security risk Liam Fox will have the trade deal with Tonga sorted any day now. They've got vanilla beans.Scott_P said:
That's the problem right there.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Jessop, nobody forced her to sign up to the backstop, or to proceed on the basis of staying as close as possible to the EU rather than trying to maximise the advantages of leaving.
There are no advantages to leaving.
Importing chlorinated chicken from the US is not an advantage.
Abandoning workers' rights and environmental standards is not an advantage.0 -
There's more to a trade deal with the US than "chlorinated chicken".Scott_P said:
That's the problem right there.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Jessop, nobody forced her to sign up to the backstop, or to proceed on the basis of staying as close as possible to the EU rather than trying to maximise the advantages of leaving.
There are no advantages to leaving.
Importing chlorinated chicken from the US is not an advantage.
Abandoning workers' rights and environmental standards is not an advantage.
Is this what passes for debate on here? That and retards calling people "winnets" that don't want this crappy deal (which includes the majority of the country and MPs).0 -
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If there is any window at all for May's deal to pass, it has to be through the constituency chairmen. The Mail is probably not a bad way of reaching them, but I suspect more of them read the Telegraph, aka Boris Weekly.Big_G_NorthWales said:It should also be noted that mail on line where caustic comments derive from is populated by ERG/UKIP whereas the newspaper is widely read by conservative voters and especially now it is available fully on line
I would suggest some conservative mps will be concerned, not least as the mail will not back off their full on attack on those intending to vote down TM deal.0 -
The peoples vote campaign need to sharpen up their act. Using peoples vote is as dishonest as the bus and is just so annoying, they need to be honest and call it a second referendum
However, for those supporters of a second referendum I pose the following questions
How do they obtain EU acceptance we would rejoin on exactly the same terms and conditions, bearing in mind this would require the EU Council and Parliament to endorse the terms.
How long would it be expected before the EU could issue those guarantees
How long would the details of the referendum take to go through the HOC and HOL
How would the wording/ choices be arrived at
Should a simple majority 50.5 to 49.5 either way be acceptable
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I thought it had more chlorine and less salmonella, so it is a compromise.Scott_P said:
That's the problem right there.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Jessop, nobody forced her to sign up to the backstop, or to proceed on the basis of staying as close as possible to the EU rather than trying to maximise the advantages of leaving.
There are no advantages to leaving.
Importing chlorinated chicken from the US is not an advantage.
Abandoning workers' rights and environmental standards is not an advantage.
I would rather berate US chicken for lower standards of animal welfare (which is largely why chlorine is required). I also think that would be a more effective argument in UK. We are accustomed to chlorine in water, swimming pools, it is not a scary element. We are far more motivated by animal welfare.
As a consumer I would be more concerned about the use of growth hormones in meat.0 -
I'm doubtful whether Boris' increasingly delusional witterings are doing his cause - and that of the ERG winnets - much good.El_Capitano said:
If there is any window at all for May's deal to pass, it has to be through the constituency chairmen. The Mail is probably not a bad way of reaching them, but I suspect more of them read the Telegraph, aka Boris Weekly.Big_G_NorthWales said:It should also be noted that mail on line where caustic comments derive from is populated by ERG/UKIP whereas the newspaper is widely read by conservative voters and especially now it is available fully on line
I would suggest some conservative mps will be concerned, not least as the mail will not back off their full on attack on those intending to vote down TM deal.0 -
This forum must provide you with a lot of entertainment!Big_G_NorthWales said:
It is amusing to see critics attacking the messenger rather than engaging with the findings
I wonder if Mrs May shares Mrs Thatcher's view:
I always cheer up immensely if an attack is particularly wounding because I think, well, if they attack one personally, it means they have not a single political argument left.0 -
Indeed there is. The US is on the wrong side of the current US/UK trade balance as we are a nett earner from it.Xenon said:There's more to a trade deal with the US than "chlorinated chicken".
Given Trump's "America first", he has every incentive to change our current trading arrangements to his advantage and our detriment. Chlorinated chicken is the least of it...
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With respect that is just a rant and even I trust our HOC to stop that in its tracksPhilip_Thompson said:
Good! Because "this whole thing" isnt Brexit which is why it was negotiated by and for Remainers. It's why the deals biggest cheerleaders are remainers. Shoot down the deal, tell the Irish we have a deal if they drop the backstop, run the clock down and prepare for no deal. Let the Irish sort their own mess out.rottenborough said:
What does it matter now? Seems clear that Leaver representatives in Parliament are determined to blow-up their own dream by scuppering anything that might just work and chasing off after unicorns.Scott_P said:
You have BoZo's personal blog. Google "The Telegraph" to read itXenon said:Oh FFS are leavers allowed to have any media that represents their views?
Nothing the Daily Mail says looks likely to swing 100 or more of ultras back from shooting the whole thing down imho.0 -
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I thought Vanilla came from Madagascar?Dura_Ace said:
Disgraced national security risk Liam Fox will have the trade deal with Tonga sorted any day now. They've got vanilla beans.Scott_P said:
That's the problem right there.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Jessop, nobody forced her to sign up to the backstop, or to proceed on the basis of staying as close as possible to the EU rather than trying to maximise the advantages of leaving.
There are no advantages to leaving.
Importing chlorinated chicken from the US is not an advantage.
Abandoning workers' rights and environmental standards is not an advantage.
Perhaps Dr Fox can be persuaded to stay in Tonga. Permanently0 -
Was that said as someone who backed remain or leave?Big_G_NorthWales said:
With respect that is just a rant and even I trust our HOC to stop that in its tracksPhilip_Thompson said:
Good! Because "this whole thing" isnt Brexit which is why it was negotiated by and for Remainers. It's why the deals biggest cheerleaders are remainers. Shoot down the deal, tell the Irish we have a deal if they drop the backstop, run the clock down and prepare for no deal. Let the Irish sort their own mess out.rottenborough said:
What does it matter now? Seems clear that Leaver representatives in Parliament are determined to blow-up their own dream by scuppering anything that might just work and chasing off after unicorns.Scott_P said:
You have BoZo's personal blog. Google "The Telegraph" to read itXenon said:Oh FFS are leavers allowed to have any media that represents their views?
Nothing the Daily Mail says looks likely to swing 100 or more of ultras back from shooting the whole thing down imho.
Do you expect HOC MPs who backed remain or leave to stop it?0 -
Although a retainer yet again I agree with Mr G. More specificity about the way forward is needed.Big_G_NorthWales said:The peoples vote campaign need to sharpen up their act. Using peoples vote is as dishonest as the bus and is just so annoying, they need to be honest and call it a second referendum
However, for those supporters of a second referendum I pose the following questions
How do they obtain EU acceptance we would rejoin on exactly the same terms and conditions, bearing in mind this would require the EU Council and Parliament to endorse the terms.
How long would it be expected before the EU could issue those guarantees
How long would the details of the referendum take to go through the HOC and HOL
How would the wording/ choices be arrived at
Should a simple majority 50.5 to 49.5 either way be acceptable0 -
The EU and EU leaders are on the record saying remain is an option. May has neglected developing this option (or at least sharing that with us). But we are pushing at an open door. There is no doubt that this could be delivered in time for March, but May has (for understandable reasons) not given an official stamp.Big_G_NorthWales said:The peoples vote campaign need to sharpen up their act. Using peoples vote is as dishonest as the bus and is just so annoying, they need to be honest and call it a second referendum
However, for those supporters of a second referendum I pose the following questions
How do they obtain EU acceptance we would rejoin on exactly the same terms and conditions, bearing in mind this would require the EU Council and Parliament to endorse the terms.
How long would it be expected before the EU could issue those guarantees
How long would the details of the referendum take to go through the HOC and HOL
How would the wording/ choices be arrived at
Should a simple majority 50.5 to 49.5 either way be acceptable
Since there is a majority in the HoC for a vote it can go through quickly. The 2016 bill provides a blue print to accelerate the process hugely.
One vote is enough to win.0 -
More than that: people who want to remain on old terms, and especially those who believe in the EU project, should start selling it. They cannot just sit back - as so many did in the run-up to the referendum - and bask in the light of their righteousness.Big_G_NorthWales said:The peoples vote campaign need to sharpen up their act. Using peoples vote is as dishonest as the bus and is just so annoying, they need to be honest and call it a second referendum
However, for those supporters of a second referendum I pose the following questions
How do they obtain EU acceptance we would rejoin on exactly the same terms and conditions, bearing in mind this would require the EU Council and Parliament to endorse the terms.
How long would it be expected before the EU could issue those guarantees
How long would the details of the referendum take to go through the HOC and HOL
How would the wording/ choices be arrived at
Should a simple majority 50.5 to 49.5 either way be acceptable
There is much good about the EU, and it has done a lot of good. And yes, there is much wrong with it, and it has done some harm. But if you really want to remain, you should be shouting the former from the rooftops.
But I fear that's too much like hard work for many hardcore remainers.0 -
Content from the Express. Enjoy .... (it is actually worth looking at in case you mistook the Express for a newspaper)El_Capitano said:
The Express is probably the paper that comes closest to weapons-grade winnetry like this:JosiasJessop said:I think you mean : "are Europhobic extremist winnets allowed to have any media that represents their views?"
Xenon said:Only another £90bn over 15 years to leave properly and actually be free?
https://www.express.co.uk/latest/aliens0 -
You don't think there are any opportunities or advantages with a free trade arrangement with the US?Beverley_C said:
Indeed there is. The US is on the wrong side of the current US/UK trade balance as we are a nett earner from it.Xenon said:There's more to a trade deal with the US than "chlorinated chicken".
Given Trump's "America first", he has every incentive to change our current trading arrangements to his advantage and our detriment. Chlorinated chicken is the least of it...
I don't understand the mindset that free trade with the EU is great and must be continued at all costs, whereas the same with the US is a disaster and we'll all be eating chlorinated chicken.0 -
American statistics show the trade balance in goods is in their favour. What gives?Beverley_C said:
Indeed there is. The US is on the wrong side of the current US/UK trade balance as we are a nett earner from it.Xenon said:There's more to a trade deal with the US than "chlorinated chicken".
Given Trump's "America first", he has every incentive to change our current trading arrangements to his advantage and our detriment. Chlorinated chicken is the least of it...
https://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/balance/c4120.html0 -
The UK wouldn't be *rejoining*, because it's already a member. This is part of the reason the People's Vote people are in such a hurry to get a People's Vote now rather than just letting Britain Brexit then rejoin when it turns out not necessarily to Britain's advantage, because joining is much, much harder than not leaving.Big_G_NorthWales said:
How do they obtain EU acceptance we would rejoin on exactly the same terms and conditions, bearing in mind this would require the EU Council and Parliament to endorse the terms.
But as we discussed upthread it would go much more smoothly with an assurance that they'd agree to Remain and wouldn't expect change of status, which would involve someone on the British waiting until a time of the day when Jean-Claude Juncker was reasonably sober and having a word with him, then him getting all the other 27 members on the phone, so I dunno, a week?0 -
And Labour Party Constituency Chairs read the Morning Star and the Guardian?El_Capitano said:
If there is any window at all for May's deal to pass, it has to be through the constituency chairmen. The Mail is probably not a bad way of reaching them, but I suspect more of them read the Telegraph, aka Boris Weekly.Big_G_NorthWales said:It should also be noted that mail on line where caustic comments derive from is populated by ERG/UKIP whereas the newspaper is widely read by conservative voters and especially now it is available fully on line
I would suggest some conservative mps will be concerned, not least as the mail will not back off their full on attack on those intending to vote down TM deal.0 -
Scott_P said:
That's the problem right there.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Jessop, nobody forced her to sign up to the backstop, or to proceed on the basis of staying as close as possible to the EU rather than trying to maximise the advantages of leaving.
There are no advantages to leaving.
Importing chlorinated chicken from the US is not an advantage.
Abandoning workers' rights and environmental standards is not an advantage.
Can you please enlighten us as to what is in fact wrong with chlorinated chicken.
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Mrs C, I read that, interestingly, both the UK and US think they're net gainers of US/UK trade.
Quite handy.0 -
If Corbyn continues to insist that a Labour government will lead the UK out of the EU and EEA without any further debate he may be gone quickly. He is untouchable if the membership continue to back him. If he is explicitly ignoring their wishes on an issue of such import, he could be gone quickly. And McDonnell is one of the few people with the clout to hand him the pearl revolver.rottenborough said:I'm beginning to wonder if Jezza will actually make it to GE 2022 as leader.
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ERG have no more than 80 mps with the rest alligned against no dealPhilip_Thompson said:
Was that said as someone who backed remain or leave?Big_G_NorthWales said:
With respect that is just a rant and even I trust our HOC to stop that in its tracksPhilip_Thompson said:
Good! Because "this whole thing" isnt Brexit which is why it was negotiated by and for Remainers. It's why the deals biggest cheerleaders are remainers. Shoot down the deal, tell the Irish we have a deal if they drop the backstop, run the clock down and prepare for no deal. Let the Irish sort their own mess out.rottenborough said:
What does it matter now? Seems clear that Leaver representatives in Parliament are determined to blow-up their own dream by scuppering anything that might just work and chasing off after unicorns.Scott_P said:
You have BoZo's personal blog. Google "The Telegraph" to read itXenon said:Oh FFS are leavers allowed to have any media that represents their views?
Nothing the Daily Mail says looks likely to swing 100 or more of ultras back from shooting the whole thing down imho.
Do you expect HOC MPs who backed remain or leave to stop it?0 -
So the anticipated cost of a hard brexit relative to remaining in the EU is a decidedly less than catastrophic 0.5% per annum diminution in our national income? That hardly supports the majority view of those in the know that this outcome simply must be avoided.0
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I particularly liked the story a year or two back of the long range weather forecasting company set up and employing mainly Russian models, whose primary function was to keep the Express's supply of freak weather headlines topped upBeverley_C said:
Content from the Express. Enjoy .... (it is actually worth looking at in case you mistook the Express for a newspaper)El_Capitano said:
The Express is probably the paper that comes closest to weapons-grade winnetry like this:JosiasJessop said:I think you mean : "are Europhobic extremist winnets allowed to have any media that represents their views?"
Xenon said:Only another £90bn over 15 years to leave properly and actually be free?
https://www.express.co.uk/latest/aliens
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I have no idea.DecrepitJohnL said:
American statistics show the trade balance in goods is in their favour. What gives?Beverley_C said:
Indeed there is. The US is on the wrong side of the current US/UK trade balance as we are a nett earner from it.Xenon said:There's more to a trade deal with the US than "chlorinated chicken".
Given Trump's "America first", he has every incentive to change our current trading arrangements to his advantage and our detriment. Chlorinated chicken is the least of it...
https://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/balance/c4120.html
"The UK had a trade surplus with the USA of around £34 billion in the year to June 2017, so we export more to them than we import. In terms of services, the UK had a surplus of over £23 billion, and in terms of goods we had a surplus of over £10 billion in that time."
https://fullfact.org/economy/trade-deficit-surplus-USA-EU/0 -
Trade benefits both parties. What is difficult to understand?Morris_Dancer said:Mrs C, I read that, interestingly, both the UK and US think they're net gainers of US/UK trade.
Quite handy.
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You do not address my questions.Jonathan said:
The EU and EU leaders are on the record saying remain is an option. May has neglected developing this option (or at least sharing that with us). But we are pushing at an open door. There is no doubt that this could be delivered in time for March, but May has (for understandable reasons) not given an official stamp.Big_G_NorthWales said:The peoples vote campaign need to sharpen up their act. Using peoples vote is as dishonest as the bus and is just so annoying, they need to be honest and call it a second referendum
However, for those supporters of a second referendum I pose the following questions
How do they obtain EU acceptance we would rejoin on exactly the same terms and conditions, bearing in mind this would require the EU Council and Parliament to endorse the terms.
How long would it be expected before the EU could issue those guarantees
How long would the details of the referendum take to go through the HOC and HOL
How would the wording/ choices be arrived at
Should a simple majority 50.5 to 49.5 either way be acceptable
Since there is a majority in the HoC for a vote it can go through quickly. The 2016 bill provides a blue print to accelerate the process hugely.
One vote is enough to win.0 -
We are at a stage where detail is a little more possible, but not a lot.OldKingCole said:
Although a retainer yet again I agree with Mr G. More specificity about the way forward is needed.Big_G_NorthWales said:The peoples vote campaign need to sharpen up their act. Using peoples vote is as dishonest as the bus and is just so annoying, they need to be honest and call it a second referendum
However, for those supporters of a second referendum I pose the following questions
How do they obtain EU acceptance we would rejoin on exactly the same terms and conditions, bearing in mind this would require the EU Council and Parliament to endorse the terms.
How long would it be expected before the EU could issue those guarantees
How long would the details of the referendum take to go through the HOC and HOL
How would the wording/ choices be arrived at
Should a simple majority 50.5 to 49.5 either way be acceptable
We may have a Political Declaration, but it is not a lot of use in giving us a definitive view of the way trade negotiations will develop.
We also do not know how the EU will develop and what our where future relationship as a member would take us.
The future is uncertain, no matter which route we take, it is hard to have a referendum on this and be definitive that A, b, and C will happen. Events, dear boy.
There may be one way out of the mess:
We agree the deal as presented to parliament, but subject to the finalisation and completion of the FTA and the future relationship within a given time frame. This will then have to be accepted by Parliament prior to ratification and agreement with EU.
That is enacting the nothing agreed until everything agreed mantra. It won't be acceptable to EU, as it reduces the negotiating leverage they have. It will sort out DUP, and would probably get the deal through Parliament at this stage.
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We may be seeing the same lazy attitude from remainers that we see from ERGJosiasJessop said:
More than that: people who want to remain on old terms, and especially those who believe in the EU project, should start selling it. They cannot just sit back - as so many did in the run-up to the referendum - and bask in the light of their righteousness.Big_G_NorthWales said:The peoples vote campaign need to sharpen up their act. Using peoples vote is as dishonest as the bus and is just so annoying, they need to be honest and call it a second referendum
However, for those supporters of a second referendum I pose the following questions
How do they obtain EU acceptance we would rejoin on exactly the same terms and conditions, bearing in mind this would require the EU Council and Parliament to endorse the terms.
How long would it be expected before the EU could issue those guarantees
How long would the details of the referendum take to go through the HOC and HOL
How would the wording/ choices be arrived at
Should a simple majority 50.5 to 49.5 either way be acceptable
There is much good about the EU, and it has done a lot of good. And yes, there is much wrong with it, and it has done some harm. But if you really want to remain, you should be shouting the former from the rooftops.
But I fear that's too much like hard work for many hardcore remainers.0 -
Real politik amongst the journalists at the Mail.rottenborough said:0 -
It is very simple. We make a big profit from the USA. If we negotiate with Trump our big profit will become a small profit or possibly even a loss. That is £34bn (or part) lost.Xenon said:
You don't think there are any opportunities or advantages with a free trade arrangement with the US?Beverley_C said:
Indeed there is. The US is on the wrong side of the current US/UK trade balance as we are a nett earner from it.Xenon said:There's more to a trade deal with the US than "chlorinated chicken".
Given Trump's "America first", he has every incentive to change our current trading arrangements to his advantage and our detriment. Chlorinated chicken is the least of it...
I don't understand the mindset that free trade with the EU is great and must be continued at all costs, whereas the same with the US is a disaster and we'll all be eating chlorinated chicken.
Free trade with the EU is necessary because we have integrated our production and manufacturing with European companies and standards. Chopping this off has the potential to cause massive disruption and therefore costs money.
So... to summarise.
Negotiate free trade with Trump = Lose money & jobs
Wreck current frictionless trade with EU = Lose money & jobs
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How will Labour supporters view Labour officially abstaining on the meaningful vote?0
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You could pose the question the other way round to Brexiteers. Donald Trump is right about Theresa May's deal. As he tweeted the other day, either Britain accepts European regulations, courts and tribunals, or it accepts American ones. Them's the choices. We don't get to impose our own. #TakeBackControl.Xenon said:
You don't think there are any opportunities or advantages with a free trade arrangement with the US?Beverley_C said:
Indeed there is. The US is on the wrong side of the current US/UK trade balance as we are a nett earner from it.Xenon said:There's more to a trade deal with the US than "chlorinated chicken".
Given Trump's "America first", he has every incentive to change our current trading arrangements to his advantage and our detriment. Chlorinated chicken is the least of it...
I don't understand the mindset that free trade with the EU is great and must be continued at all costs, whereas the same with the US is a disaster and we'll all be eating chlorinated chicken.
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Increasingly, the Skwawkbox and the Canary and whatever that muppet Bastani's site is called, I fear.David_Evershed said:
And Labour Party Constituency Chairs read the Morning Star and the Guardian?El_Capitano said:
If there is any window at all for May's deal to pass, it has to be through the constituency chairmen. The Mail is probably not a bad way of reaching them, but I suspect more of them read the Telegraph, aka Boris Weekly.Big_G_NorthWales said:It should also be noted that mail on line where caustic comments derive from is populated by ERG/UKIP whereas the newspaper is widely read by conservative voters and especially now it is available fully on line
I would suggest some conservative mps will be concerned, not least as the mail will not back off their full on attack on those intending to vote down TM deal.0 -
I'm not suggesting we seek out no deal. I'm saying we prepare for it as a backstop in case it happens and say we go for May's deal but replace the backstop with a good faith and sincere co-operation commitment to an open Irish border.Big_G_NorthWales said:
ERG have no more than 80 mps with the rest alligned against no dealPhilip_Thompson said:
Was that said as someone who backed remain or leave?Big_G_NorthWales said:
With respect that is just a rant and even I trust our HOC to stop that in its tracksPhilip_Thompson said:
Good! Because "this whole thing" isnt Brexit which is why it was negotiated by and for Remainers. It's why the deals biggest cheerleaders are remainers. Shoot down the deal, tell the Irish we have a deal if they drop the backstop, run the clock down and prepare for no deal. Let the Irish sort their own mess out.rottenborough said:
What does it matter now? Seems clear that Leaver representatives in Parliament are determined to blow-up their own dream by scuppering anything that might just work and chasing off after unicorns.Scott_P said:
You have BoZo's personal blog. Google "The Telegraph" to read itXenon said:Oh FFS are leavers allowed to have any media that represents their views?
Nothing the Daily Mail says looks likely to swing 100 or more of ultras back from shooting the whole thing down imho.
Do you expect HOC MPs who backed remain or leave to stop it?
If our good faith and sincere co-operation isn't good enough and the Irish would rather an immediate hard border than an open border as we seek out an amicable solution then that is their choice.0 -
With respect that is a lazy answer. A statement that the EU wouldn't expect........ and a phone call to the 27 in a week and of course ignore the EU Parliament just does not provide a serious response to a genuine question which is not even a trick questionedmundintokyo said:
The UK wouldn't be *rejoining*, because it's already a member. This is part of the reason the People's Vote people are in such a hurry to get a People's Vote now rather than just letting Britain Brexit then rejoin when it turns out not necessarily to Britain's advantage, because joining is much, much harder than not leaving.Big_G_NorthWales said:
How do they obtain EU acceptance we would rejoin on exactly the same terms and conditions, bearing in mind this would require the EU Council and Parliament to endorse the terms.
But as we discussed upthread it would go much more smoothly with an assurance that they'd agree to Remain and wouldn't expect change of status, which would involve someone on the British waiting until a time of the day when Jean-Claude Juncker was reasonably sober and having a word with him, then him getting all the other 27 members on the phone, so I dunno, a week?0 -
You're free to pose questions, Big G, but the lesson from Leave's victory is that the side that ignores the hard questions and simply goes "lalala we have a plan and it will be terrific" is the one that wins. Corbyn knows this very well.Big_G_NorthWales said:The peoples vote campaign need to sharpen up their act. Using peoples vote is as dishonest as the bus and is just so annoying, they need to be honest and call it a second referendum
However, for those supporters of a second referendum I pose the following questions0 -
Scottish Conservative mp for Stirling openly opposing IDS and will support TM deal0
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That the chlorine is required to cleanse the poultry as it is produced in more crowded and less animal friendly conditions than EU regulations permit, I think.notme said:Scott_P said:
That's the problem right there.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Jessop, nobody forced her to sign up to the backstop, or to proceed on the basis of staying as close as possible to the EU rather than trying to maximise the advantages of leaving.
There are no advantages to leaving.
Importing chlorinated chicken from the US is not an advantage.
Abandoning workers' rights and environmental standards is not an advantage.
Can you please enlighten us as to what is in fact wrong with chlorinated chicken.
It is proxy for an animal welfare issue used in an emotive way, rather than the human health issue it pretends to be.0 -
Mr. W, I think the belief actually relates to the trade deficit, though.
But yes, as a rule, trade = good.
Although when you let yourself be subjected to effective IP theft and then undercut by copycats, that's less good. Ahem.
Mrs C, I do think a US trade deal is overblown in importance. That said, the EU isn't just an economic construct. Were it, it'd be far more popular. Article 13 sounds bloody horrendous, they've buggered up VAT, and their policy on antique books is delinquent nonsense.
The army will require policy guidance which requires an EU defence department. And integration will only increase.0 -
The EU have already said the status quo is no longer an option. If we beg them to let us remain they will deign to let us but without our rebate.0
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Will Ruthie have to talk roaster Ross round ?Big_G_NorthWales said:Scottish Conservative mp for Stirling openly opposing IDS and will support TM deal
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Good for TM. Only another 300+ MPs needed to get a majority.Big_G_NorthWales said:Scottish Conservative mp for Stirling openly opposing IDS and will support TM deal
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Isn't she on maternity leave?Pulpstar said:
Will Ruthie have to talk roaster Ross round ?Big_G_NorthWales said:Scottish Conservative mp for Stirling openly opposing IDS and will support TM deal
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I think you already have the answer in the WDA. That will not be re-openedPhilip_Thompson said:
I'm not suggesting we seek out no deal. I'm saying we prepare for it as a backstop in case it happens and say we go for May's deal but replace the backstop with a good faith and sincere co-operation commitment to an open Irish border.Big_G_NorthWales said:
ERG have no more than 80 mps with the rest alligned against no dealPhilip_Thompson said:
Was that said as someone who backed remain or leave?Big_G_NorthWales said:
With respect that is just a rant and even I trust our HOC to stop that in its tracksPhilip_Thompson said:
Good! Because "this whole thing" isnt Brexit which is why it was negotiated by and for Remainers. It's why the deals biggest cheerleaders are remainers. Shoot down the deal, tell the Irish we have a deal if they drop the backstop, run the clock down and prepare for no deal. Let the Irish sort their own mess out.rottenborough said:
What does it matter now? Seems clear that Leaver representatives in Parliament are determined to blow-up their own dream by scuppering anything that might just work and chasing off after unicorns.Scott_P said:
You have BoZo's personal blog. Google "The Telegraph" to read itXenon said:Oh FFS are leavers allowed to have any media that represents their views?
Nothing the Daily Mail says looks likely to swing 100 or more of ultras back from shooting the whole thing down imho.
Do you expect HOC MPs who backed remain or leave to stop it?
If our good faith and sincere co-operation isn't good enough and the Irish would rather an immediate hard border than an open border as we seek out an amicable solution then that is their choice.0 -
So you are happy for remainers to act in the same way as leaveEl_Capitano said:
You're free to pose questions, Big G, but the lesson from Leave's victory is that the side that ignores the hard questions and simply goes "lalala we have a plan and it will be terrific" is the one that wins. Corbyn knows this very well.Big_G_NorthWales said:The peoples vote campaign need to sharpen up their act. Using peoples vote is as dishonest as the bus and is just so annoying, they need to be honest and call it a second referendum
However, for those supporters of a second referendum I pose the following questions0 -
I'm sure she's capable of having a word still !rottenborough said:
Isn't she on maternity leave?Pulpstar said:
Will Ruthie have to talk roaster Ross round ?Big_G_NorthWales said:Scottish Conservative mp for Stirling openly opposing IDS and will support TM deal
0 -
The only thing I noticed was the American figures were for GOODS only, not goods & services - and they are in dollars.Morris_Dancer said:Mrs C, I read that, interestingly, both the UK and US think they're net gainers of US/UK trade.
Quite handy.
It still does not add up though...0 -
So they claim but the WDA won't pass Parliament. You and I both want the same end goal - a good deal to pass. This deal as it stands won't pass. It can't pass. Fix the backstop it can. IDS, Boris, the DUP etc have all said the backstop is the one thing making them vote this down.Big_G_NorthWales said:
I think you already have the answer in the WDA. That will not be re-openedPhilip_Thompson said:
I'm not suggesting we seek out no deal. I'm saying we prepare for it as a backstop in case it happens and say we go for May's deal but replace the backstop with a good faith and sincere co-operation commitment to an open Irish border.Big_G_NorthWales said:
ERG have no more than 80 mps with the rest alligned against no dealPhilip_Thompson said:
Was that said as someone who backed remain or leave?Big_G_NorthWales said:
With respect that is just a rant and even I trust our HOC to stop that in its tracksPhilip_Thompson said:
Good! Because "this whole thing" isnt Brexit which is why it was negotiated by and for Remainers. It's why the deals biggest cheerleaders are remainers. Shoot down the deal, tell the Irish we have a deal if they drop the backstop, run the clock down and prepare for no deal. Let the Irish sort their own mess out.rottenborough said:
What does it matter now? Seems clear that Leaver representatives in Parliament are determined to blow-up their own dream by scuppering anything that might just work and chasing off after unicorns.Scott_P said:
You have BoZo's personal blog. Google "The Telegraph" to read itXenon said:Oh FFS are leavers allowed to have any media that represents their views?
Nothing the Daily Mail says looks likely to swing 100 or more of ultras back from shooting the whole thing down imho.
Do you expect HOC MPs who backed remain or leave to stop it?
If our good faith and sincere co-operation isn't good enough and the Irish would rather an immediate hard border than an open border as we seek out an amicable solution then that is their choice.
If you want to save May's deal the path is clear. Stop arguing with those who want the deal fixed and argue with our partners to save this deal.0 -
So they claim but the WDA won't pass Parliament. You and I both want the same end goal - a good deal to pass. This deal as it stands won't pass. It can't pass. Fix the backstop it can. IDS, Boris, the DUP etc have all said the backstop is the one thing making them vote this down.Big_G_NorthWales said:
I think you already have the answer in the WDA. That will not be re-openedPhilip_Thompson said:
I'm not suggesting we seek out no deal. I'm saying we prepare for it as a backstop in case it happens and say we go for May's deal but replace the backstop with a good faith and sincere co-operation commitment to an open Irish border.Big_G_NorthWales said:
ERG have no more than 80 mps with the rest alligned against no dealPhilip_Thompson said:
Was that said as someone who backed remain or leave?Big_G_NorthWales said:
With respect that is just a rant and even I trust our HOC to stop that in its tracksPhilip_Thompson said:
Good! Because "this whole thing" isnt Brexit which is why it was negotiated by and for Remainers. It's why the deals biggest cheerleaders are remainers. Shoot down the deal, tell the Irish we have a deal if they drop the backstop, run the clock down and prepare for no deal. Let the Irish sort their own mess out.rottenborough said:
What does it matter now? Seems clear that Leaver representatives in Parliament are determined to blow-up their own dream by scuppering anything that might just work and chasing off after unicorns.Scott_P said:
You have BoZo's personal blog. Google "The Telegraph" to read itXenon said:Oh FFS are leavers allowed to have any media that represents their views?
Nothing the Daily Mail says looks likely to swing 100 or more of ultras back from shooting the whole thing down imho.
Do you expect HOC MPs who backed remain or leave to stop it?
If our good faith and sincere co-operation isn't good enough and the Irish would rather an immediate hard border than an open border as we seek out an amicable solution then that is their choice.
If you want to save May's deal the path is clear. Stop arguing with those who want the deal fixed and argue with our partners to save this deal.0 -
I think you're saying you don't believe my answer? The UK is already a member of the EU. It has not yet left. The problem is cancelling / extending the Article 50 notification, not rejoining. The EU Council specifically has the power to extend its departure indefinitely, and probably has the power to cancel it definitively (there should be a ruling on this soon). The EU Parliament is not involved. The EU Council members can literally reach agreements overnight when there's a crisis, and have done on previous occasions.Big_G_NorthWales said:
With respect that is a lazy answer. A statement that the EU wouldn't expect........ and a phone call to the 27 in a week and of course ignore the EU Parliament just does not provide a serious response to a genuine question which is not even a trick questionedmundintokyo said:
The UK wouldn't be *rejoining*, because it's already a member. This is part of the reason the People's Vote people are in such a hurry to get a People's Vote now rather than just letting Britain Brexit then rejoin when it turns out not necessarily to Britain's advantage, because joining is much, much harder than not leaving.Big_G_NorthWales said:
How do they obtain EU acceptance we would rejoin on exactly the same terms and conditions, bearing in mind this would require the EU Council and Parliament to endorse the terms.
But as we discussed upthread it would go much more smoothly with an assurance that they'd agree to Remain and wouldn't expect change of status, which would involve someone on the British waiting until a time of the day when Jean-Claude Juncker was reasonably sober and having a word with him, then him getting all the other 27 members on the phone, so I dunno, a week?
If you cancel or indefinitely extend the Article 50 notification, nothing has happened to change anything else about the UK's status. However, since Leave supporters would certainly claim that it would, it would be politically useful to get a clear statement to this effect. If you don't believe me when I say they'd almost certainly do that, go back to the comments discussing this upthread and tell me where you disagree.0 -
Why would a free trade agreement with the US automatically mean a bigger loss?Beverley_C said:
It is very simple. We make a big profit from the USA. If we negotiate with Trump our big profit will become a small profit or possibly even a loss. That is £34bn (or part) lost.Xenon said:
You don't think there are any opportunities or advantages with a free trade arrangement with the US?Beverley_C said:
Indeed there is. The US is on the wrong side of the current US/UK trade balance as we are a nett earner from it.Xenon said:There's more to a trade deal with the US than "chlorinated chicken".
Given Trump's "America first", he has every incentive to change our current trading arrangements to his advantage and our detriment. Chlorinated chicken is the least of it...
I don't understand the mindset that free trade with the EU is great and must be continued at all costs, whereas the same with the US is a disaster and we'll all be eating chlorinated chicken.
Free trade with the EU is necessary because we have integrated our production and manufacturing with European companies and standards. Chopping this off has the potential to cause massive disruption and therefore costs money.
So... to summarise.
Negotiate free trade with Trump = Lose money & jobs
Wreck current frictionless trade with EU = Lose money & jobs0 -
I have no problem with the deal and fear that ERG will lose brexit altogetherPhilip_Thompson said:
So they claim but the WDA won't pass Parliament. You and I both want the same end goal - a good deal to pass. This deal as it stands won't pass. It can't pass. Fix the backstop it can. IDS, Boris, the DUP etc have all said the backstop is the one thing making them vote this down.Big_G_NorthWales said:
I think you already have the answer in the WDA. That will not be re-openedPhilip_Thompson said:
I'm not suggesting we seek out no deal. I'm saying we prepare for it as a backstop in case it happens and say we go for May's deal but replace the backstop with a good faith and sincere co-operation commitment to an open Irish border.Big_G_NorthWales said:
ERG have no more than 80 mps with the rest alligned against no dealPhilip_Thompson said:
Was that said as someone who backed remain or leave?Big_G_NorthWales said:
With respect that is just a rant and even I trust our HOC to stop that in its tracksPhilip_Thompson said:
Good! Because "this whole thing" isnt Brexit which is why it was negotiated by and for Remainers. It's why the deals biggest cheerleaders are remainers. Shoot down the deal, tell the Irish we have a deal if they drop the backstop, run the clock down and prepare for no deal. Let the Irish sort their own mess out.rottenborough said:
What does it matter now? Seems clear that Leaver representatives in Parliament are determined to blow-up their own dream by scuppering anything that might just work and chasing off after unicorns.Scott_P said:
You have BoZo's personal blog. Google "The Telegraph" to read itXenon said:Oh FFS are leavers allowed to have any media that represents their views?
Nothing the Daily Mail says looks likely to swing 100 or more of ultras back from shooting the whole thing down imho.
Do you expect HOC MPs who backed remain or leave to stop it?
If our good faith and sincere co-operation isn't good enough and the Irish would rather an immediate hard border than an open border as we seek out an amicable solution then that is their choice.
If you want to save May's deal the path is clear. Stop arguing with those who want the deal fixed and argue with our partners to save this deal.0 -
They will only exercise that power if we forfeit our rebate though.edmundintokyo said:
I think you're saying you don't believe my answer? The UK is already a member of the EU. It has not yet left. The problem is cancelling / extending the Article 50 notification, not rejoining. The EU Council specifically has the power to extend its departure indefinitely, and probably has the power to cancel it definitively (there should be a ruling on this soon). The EU Parliament is not involved. The EU Council members can literally reach agreements overnight when there's a crisis, and have done on previous occasions.Big_G_NorthWales said:
With respect that is a lazy answer. A statement that the EU wouldn't expect........ and a phone call to the 27 in a week and of course ignore the EU Parliament just does not provide a serious response to a genuine question which is not even a trick questionedmundintokyo said:
The UK wouldn't be *rejoining*, because it's already a member. This is part of the reason the People's Vote people are in such a hurry to get a People's Vote now rather than just letting Britain Brexit then rejoin when it turns out not necessarily to Britain's advantage, because joining is much, much harder than not leaving.Big_G_NorthWales said:
How do they obtain EU acceptance we would rejoin on exactly the same terms and conditions, bearing in mind this would require the EU Council and Parliament to endorse the terms.
But as we discussed upthread it would go much more smoothly with an assurance that they'd agree to Remain and wouldn't expect change of status, which would involve someone on the British waiting until a time of the day when Jean-Claude Juncker was reasonably sober and having a word with him, then him getting all the other 27 members on the phone, so I dunno, a week?
If you cancel or indefinitely extend the Article 50 notification, nothing has happened to change anything else about the UK's status. However, since Leave supporters would certainly claim that it would, it would be politically useful to get a clear statement to this effect. If you don't believe me when I say they'd almost certainly do that, go back to the comments discussing this upthread and tell me where you disagree.0 -
Surely remainers have been putting forward scenario after scenario for the last two years and debunking the "We will be fine - something will turn up!" trope pushed by many Leavers?Big_G_NorthWales said:
So you are happy for remainers to act in the same way as leaveEl_Capitano said:
You're free to pose questions, Big G, but the lesson from Leave's victory is that the side that ignores the hard questions and simply goes "lalala we have a plan and it will be terrific" is the one that wins. Corbyn knows this very well.Big_G_NorthWales said:The peoples vote campaign need to sharpen up their act. Using peoples vote is as dishonest as the bus and is just so annoying, they need to be honest and call it a second referendum
However, for those supporters of a second referendum I pose the following questions
As for schedules, well they are out there. We have a hard deadline of March 2019. The CJEU are considering an important aspect of Brexit and the mechanisms for cancelling it. The case has been made over and over again about economic damage and the lies of the "We will be swamped by immigrants" strategy.
What more do you want?0 -
Ireland just got a cheque for £14Bn from Apple. You know - the American company.Beverley_C said:
It is very simple. We make a big profit from the USA. If we negotiate with Trump our big profit will become a small profit or possibly even a loss. That is £34bn (or part) lost.Xenon said:
You don't think there are any opportunities or advantages with a free trade arrangement with the US?Beverley_C said:
Indeed there is. The US is on the wrong side of the current US/UK trade balance as we are a nett earner from it.Xenon said:There's more to a trade deal with the US than "chlorinated chicken".
Given Trump's "America first", he has every incentive to change our current trading arrangements to his advantage and our detriment. Chlorinated chicken is the least of it...
I don't understand the mindset that free trade with the EU is great and must be continued at all costs, whereas the same with the US is a disaster and we'll all be eating chlorinated chicken.
Free trade with the EU is necessary because we have integrated our production and manufacturing with European companies and standards. Chopping this off has the potential to cause massive disruption and therefore costs money.
So... to summarise.
Negotiate free trade with Trump = Lose money & jobs
Wreck current frictionless trade with EU = Lose money & jobs
#clueless0 -
A deal that can't pass Parliament is no deal.Big_G_NorthWales said:
I have no problem with the deal and fear that ERG will lose brexit altogetherPhilip_Thompson said:
So they claim but the WDA won't pass Parliament. You and I both want the same end goal - a good deal to pass. This deal as it stands won't pass. It can't pass. Fix the backstop it can. IDS, Boris, the DUP etc have all said the backstop is the one thing making them vote this down.Big_G_NorthWales said:
I think you already have the answer in the WDA. That will not be re-openedPhilip_Thompson said:
I'm not suggesting we seek out no deal. I'm saying we prepare for it as a backstop in case it happens and say we go for May's deal but replace the backstop with a good faith and sincere co-operation commitment to an open Irish border.Big_G_NorthWales said:
ERG have no more than 80 mps with the rest alligned against no dealPhilip_Thompson said:
Was that said as someone who backed remain or leave?Big_G_NorthWales said:
With respect that is just a rant and even I trust our HOC to stop that in its tracksPhilip_Thompson said:
Good! Because "this whole thing" isnt Brexit which is why it was negotiated by and for Remainers. It's why the deals biggest cheerleaders are remainers. Shoot down the deal, tell the Irish we have a deal if they drop the backstop, run the clock down and prepare for no deal. Let the Irish sort their own mess out.rottenborough said:
What does it matter now? Seems clear that Leaver representatives in Parliament are determined to blow-up their own dream by scuppering anything that might just work and chasing off after unicorns.Scott_P said:
You have BoZo's personal blog. Google "The Telegraph" to read itXenon said:Oh FFS are leavers allowed to have any media that represents their views?
Nothing the Daily Mail says looks likely to swing 100 or more of ultras back from shooting the whole thing down imho.
Do you expect HOC MPs who backed remain or leave to stop it?
If our good faith and sincere co-operation isn't good enough and the Irish would rather an immediate hard border than an open border as we seek out an amicable solution then that is their choice.
If you want to save May's deal the path is clear. Stop arguing with those who want the deal fixed and argue with our partners to save this deal.
Do you agree that if the backstop goes this deal could pass Parliament?0 -
Some of them still find The Beano too challenging.David_Evershed said:
And Labour Party Constituency Chairs read the Morning Star and the Guardian?El_Capitano said:
If there is any window at all for May's deal to pass, it has to be through the constituency chairmen. The Mail is probably not a bad way of reaching them, but I suspect more of them read the Telegraph, aka Boris Weekly.Big_G_NorthWales said:It should also be noted that mail on line where caustic comments derive from is populated by ERG/UKIP whereas the newspaper is widely read by conservative voters and especially now it is available fully on line
I would suggest some conservative mps will be concerned, not least as the mail will not back off their full on attack on those intending to vote down TM deal.0 -
Thank you for your response which I agree with to an extent.edmundintokyo said:
I think you're saying you don't believe my answer? The UK is already a member of the EU. It has not yet left. The problem is cancelling / extending the Article 50 notification, not rejoining. The EU Council specifically has the power to extend its departure indefinitely, and probably has the power to cancel it definitively (there should be a ruling on this soon). The EU Parliament is not involved. The EU Council members can literally reach agreements overnight when there's a crisis, and have done on previous occasions.Big_G_NorthWales said:
With respect that is a lazy answer. A statement that the EU wouldn't expect........ and a phone call to the 27 in a week and of course ignore the EU Parliament just does not provide a serious response to a genuine question which is not even a trick questionedmundintokyo said:
The UK wouldn't be *rejoining*, because it's already a member. This is part of the reason the People's Vote people are in such a hurry to get a People's Vote now rather than just letting Britain Brexit then rejoin when it turns out not necessarily to Britain's advantage, because joining is much, much harder than not leaving.Big_G_NorthWales said:
How do they obtain EU acceptance we would rejoin on exactly the same terms and conditions, bearing in mind this would require the EU Council and Parliament to endorse the terms.
But as we discussed upthread it would go much more smoothly with an assurance that they'd agree to Remain and wouldn't expect change of status, which would involve someone on the British waiting until a time of the day when Jean-Claude Juncker was reasonably sober and having a word with him, then him getting all the other 27 members on the phone, so I dunno, a week?
If you cancel or indefinitely extend the Article 50 notification, nothing has happened to change anything else about the UK's status. However, since Leave supporters would certainly claim that it would, it would be politically useful to get a clear statement to this effect. If you don't believe me when I say they'd almost certainly do that, go back to the comments discussing this upthread and tell me where you disagree.
However, key to winning is that the EU do not put conditions on us remaining, remove our rebate, or insert restrictive covenants. That has to receive formal EU consent0 -
This comment -
“May is not a good person. May is nasty, incompetent, dishonest xenophobe, devoid of wisdom, charm, personality or wit. She's bloody minded for the sake of being bloody minded. She has ruined everything she's touched, and her entire political career has been focused on being as mean and obnoxious as possible to all immigrants.
She's a vile old hag and all of her suffering is 1000% earned.
Good riddance to bad rubbish tbh, it's just a shame her suffering will soon be over. I'd have liked to see her suffer a great deal more.”
from @grabcocque on the previous thread is a touch OTT.
May is not up to the job of being PM and has not handled the Brexit issue well. Though even Solomon would have struggled, I dare say.
But she achieved the deportation of Abu Qatada, which is more than can be said of previous, possibly nicer, Home Secretaries, she tried to deal with the very real perception by young black men that they were being unfairly targeted by the police, she helped the Hillsborough families behind the scenes and was praised by them for her help and she has pushed through quite a lot of action on the issue of modern slavery. And it was not her who started the attacks on the Windrush generation (though she can be criticised for continuing them in such an unept and hurtful way). She has also done a lot within the Tory party to help women become candidates.
There are plenty of things she can be criticised for. For instance, her reported refusal to countenance giving asylum to Asia Bibi for fear of enraging extremist Muslims here (contrary to the wishes of the current Home and Foreign Secretaries) is utterly shameful.
But to call someone a “vile old hag” and wish suffering on a woman in public life smacks of an unpleasantly bullying and mysogynistic attitude which reflects rather more - and badly IMO - on those saying and supporting such things than on the target.0 -
It would probably pass if there was a unilateral exit mechanism from the backstop...Philip_Thompson said:
A deal that can't pass Parliament is no deal.Big_G_NorthWales said:
I have no problem with the deal and fear that ERG will lose brexit altogetherPhilip_Thompson said:
So they claim but the WDA won't pass Parliament. You and I both want the same end goal - a good deal to pass. This deal as it stands won't pass. It can't pass. Fix the backstop it can. IDS, Boris, the DUP etc have all said the backstop is the one thing making them vote this down.Big_G_NorthWales said:
I think you already have the answer in the WDA. That will not be re-openedPhilip_Thompson said:
If our good faith and sincere co-operation isn't good enough and the Irish would rather an immediate hard border than an open border as we seek out an amicable solution then that is their choice.Big_G_NorthWales said:
ERG have no more than 80 mps with the rest alligned against no dealPhilip_Thompson said:
Was that said as someone who backed remain or leave?Big_G_NorthWales said:
With respect that is just a rant and even I trust our HOC to stop that in its tracksPhilip_Thompson said:
Good! Because "this whole thing" isnt Brexit which is why it was negotiated by and for Remainers. It's why the deals biggest cheerleaders are remainers. Shoot down the deal, tell the Irish we have a deal if they drop the backstop, run the clock down and prepare for no deal. Let the Irish sort their own mess out.rottenborough said:
What does it matter now? Seems clear that Leaver representatives in Parliament are determined to blow-up their own dream by scuppering anything that might just work and chasing off after unicorns.Scott_P said:
You have BoZo's personal blog. Google "The Telegraph" to read itXenon said:Oh FFS are leavers allowed to have any media that represents their views?
Nothing the Daily Mail says looks likely to swing 100 or more of ultras back from shooting the whole thing down imho.
Do you expect HOC MPs who backed remain or leave to stop it?
If you want to save May's deal the path is clear. Stop arguing with those who want the deal fixed and argue with our partners to save this deal.
Do you agree that if the backstop goes this deal could pass Parliament?0 -
Without the backstop there is no deal.Philip_Thompson said:Do you agree that if the backstop goes this deal could pass Parliament?
0 -
Could it be that exports are calculated as FOB (freight on board) and imports as CIF (cost insurance & freight)?Beverley_C said:
I have no idea.DecrepitJohnL said:
American statistics show the trade balance in goods is in their favour. What gives?Beverley_C said:
Indeed there is. The US is on the wrong side of the current US/UK trade balance as we are a nett earner from it.Xenon said:There's more to a trade deal with the US than "chlorinated chicken".
Given Trump's "America first", he has every incentive to change our current trading arrangements to his advantage and our detriment. Chlorinated chicken is the least of it...
https://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/balance/c4120.html
"The UK had a trade surplus with the USA of around £34 billion in the year to June 2017, so we export more to them than we import. In terms of services, the UK had a surplus of over £23 billion, and in terms of goods we had a surplus of over £10 billion in that time."
https://fullfact.org/economy/trade-deficit-surplus-USA-EU/0 -
I would want an absolute commitment by the EU that our rebate is safe and we remain as exactly as we are now with no hidden covenants or conditionsBeverley_C said:
Surely remainers have been putting forward scenario after scenario for the last two years and debunking the "We will be fine - something will turn up!" trope pushed by many Leavers?Big_G_NorthWales said:
So you are happy for remainers to act in the same way as leaveEl_Capitano said:
You're free to pose questions, Big G, but the lesson from Leave's victory is that the side that ignores the hard questions and simply goes "lalala we have a plan and it will be terrific" is the one that wins. Corbyn knows this very well.Big_G_NorthWales said:The peoples vote campaign need to sharpen up their act. Using peoples vote is as dishonest as the bus and is just so annoying, they need to be honest and call it a second referendum
However, for those supporters of a second referendum I pose the following questions
As for schedules, well they are out there. We have a hard deadline of March 2019. The CJEU are considering an important aspect of Brexit and the mechanisms for cancelling it. The case has been made over and over again about economic damage and the lies of the "We will be swamped by immigrants" strategy.
What more do you want?0 -
Because the Trump administration has already said that it wants Trade Deals changed to America's benefit. That means they are not going to change the current deal to the UK's benefit.Xenon said:
Why would a free trade agreement with the US automatically mean a bigger loss?Beverley_C said:
It is very simple. We make a big profit from the USA. If we negotiate with Trump our big profit will become a small profit or possibly even a loss. That is £34bn (or part) lost.Xenon said:
You don't think there are any opportunities or advantages with a free trade arrangement with the US?Beverley_C said:
Indeed there is. The US is on the wrong side of the current US/UK trade balance as we are a nett earner from it.Xenon said:There's more to a trade deal with the US than "chlorinated chicken".
Given Trump's "America first", he has every incentive to change our current trading arrangements to his advantage and our detriment. Chlorinated chicken is the least of it...
I don't understand the mindset that free trade with the EU is great and must be continued at all costs, whereas the same with the US is a disaster and we'll all be eating chlorinated chicken.
Free trade with the EU is necessary because we have integrated our production and manufacturing with European companies and standards. Chopping this off has the potential to cause massive disruption and therefore costs money.
So... to summarise.
Negotiate free trade with Trump = Lose money & jobs
Wreck current frictionless trade with EU = Lose money & jobs
https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/9695253625804840980 -
They've already said they'd remove our rebate.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Thank you for your response which I agree with to an extent.edmundintokyo said:
I think you're saying you don't believe my answer? The UK is already a member of the EU. It has not yet left. The problem is cancelling / extending the Article 50 notification, not rejoining. The EU Council specifically has the power to extend its departure indefinitely, and probably has the power to cancel it definitively (there should be a ruling on this soon). The EU Parliament is not involved. The EU Council members can literally reach agreements overnight when there's a crisis, and have done on previous occasions.Big_G_NorthWales said:
With respect that is a lazy answer. A statement that the EU wouldn't expect........ and a phone call to the 27 in a week and of course ignore the EU Parliament just does not provide a serious response to a genuine question which is not even a trick questionedmundintokyo said:
The UK wouldn't be *rejoining*, because it's already a member. This is part of the reason the People's Vote people are in such a hurry to get a People's Vote now rather than just letting Britain Brexit then rejoin when it turns out not necessarily to Britain's advantage, because joining is much, much harder than not leaving.Big_G_NorthWales said:
How do they obtain EU acceptance we would rejoin on exactly the same terms and conditions, bearing in mind this would require the EU Council and Parliament to endorse the terms.
But as we discussed upthread it would go much more smoothly with an assurance that they'd agree to Remain and wouldn't expect change of status, which would involve someone on the British waiting until a time of the day when Jean-Claude Juncker was reasonably sober and having a word with him, then him getting all the other 27 members on the phone, so I dunno, a week?
If you cancel or indefinitely extend the Article 50 notification, nothing has happened to change anything else about the UK's status. However, since Leave supporters would certainly claim that it would, it would be politically useful to get a clear statement to this effect. If you don't believe me when I say they'd almost certainly do that, go back to the comments discussing this upthread and tell me where you disagree.
However, key to winning is that the EU do not put conditions on us remaining, remove our rebate, or insert restrictive covenants. That has to receive formal EU consent0 -
As I understood it it is not the fact that it is chlorinated per se that is the issue it is the reasons why it needs to be chlorinated that is the problem. Not sure I am right but I'm sure someone will correct me if not!notme said:Scott_P said:
That's the problem right there.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Jessop, nobody forced her to sign up to the backstop, or to proceed on the basis of staying as close as possible to the EU rather than trying to maximise the advantages of leaving.
There are no advantages to leaving.
Importing chlorinated chicken from the US is not an advantage.
Abandoning workers' rights and environmental standards is not an advantage.
Can you please enlighten us as to what is in fact wrong with chlorinated chicken.0 -
They will see we are a split nation, both public and politicians.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Thank you for your response which I agree with to an extent.edmundintokyo said:
I think you're saying you don't believe my answer? The UK is already a member of the EU. It has not yet left. The problem is cancelling / extending the Article 50 notification, not rejoining. The EU Council specifically has the power to extend its departure indefinitely, and probably has the power to cancel it definitively (there should be a ruling on this soon). The EU Parliament is not involved. The EU Council members can literally reach agreements overnight when there's a crisis, and have done on previous occasions.Big_G_NorthWales said:
With respect that is a lazy answer. A statement that the EU wouldn't expect........ and a phone call to the 27 in a week and of course ignore the EU Parliament just does not provide a serious response to a genuine question which is not even a trick questionedmundintokyo said:
The UK wouldn't be *rejoining*, because it's already a member. This is part of the reason the People's Vote people are in such a hurry to get a People's Vote now rather than just letting Britain Brexit then rejoin when it turns out not necessarily to Britain's advantage, because joining is much, much harder than not leaving.Big_G_NorthWales said:
How do they obtain EU acceptance we would rejoin on exactly the same terms and conditions, bearing in mind this would require the EU Council and Parliament to endorse the terms.
But as we discussed upthread it would go much more smoothly with an assurance that they'd agree to Remain and wouldn't expect change of status, which would involve someone on the British waiting until a time of the day when Jean-Claude Juncker was reasonably sober and having a word with him, then him getting all the other 27 members on the phone, so I dunno, a week?
If you cancel or indefinitely extend the Article 50 notification, nothing has happened to change anything else about the UK's status. However, since Leave supporters would certainly claim that it would, it would be politically useful to get a clear statement to this effect. If you don't believe me when I say they'd almost certainly do that, go back to the comments discussing this upthread and tell me where you disagree.
However, key to winning is that the EU do not put conditions on us remaining, remove our rebate, or insert restrictive covenants. That has to receive formal EU consent
No return to Artice 50 for xx years?0 -
Yes but you are fighting a losing causePhilip_Thompson said:
A deal that can't pass Parliament is no deal.Big_G_NorthWales said:
I have no problem with the deal and fear that ERG will lose brexit altogetherPhilip_Thompson said:
So they claim but the WDA won't pass Parliament. You and I both want the same end goal - a good deal to pass. This deal as it stands won't pass. It can't pass. Fix the backstop it can. IDS, Boris, the DUP etc have all said the backstop is the one thing making them vote this down.Big_G_NorthWales said:
I think you already have the answer in the WDA. That will not be re-openedPhilip_Thompson said:
I'm not suggesting we seek out no deal. I'm saying we prepare for it as a backstop in case it happens and say we go for May's deal but replace the backstop with a good faith and sincere co-operation commitment to an open Irish border.Big_G_NorthWales said:
ERG have no more than 80 mps with the rest alligned against no dealPhilip_Thompson said:
Was that said as someone who backed remain or leave?Big_G_NorthWales said:
With respect that is just a rant and even I trust our HOC to stop that in its tracksPhilip_Thompson said:
Good! Because "this whole thing" isnt Brexit which is why it was negotiated by and for Remainers. It's why the deals biggest cheerleaders are remainers. Shoot down the deal, tell the Irish we have a deal if they drop the backstop, run the clock down and prepare for no deal. Let the Irish sort their own mess out.rottenborough said:
What does it matter now? Seems clear that Leaver representatives in Parliament are determined to blow-up their own dream by scuppering anything that might just work and chasing off after unicorns.Scott_P said:
You have BoZo's personal blog. Google "The Telegraph" to read itXenon said:Oh FFS are leavers allowed to have any media that represents their views?
Nothing the Daily Mail says looks likely to swing 100 or more of ultras back from shooting the whole thing down imho.
Do you expect HOC MPs who backed remain or leave to stop it?
If our good faith and sincere co-operation isn't good enough and the Irish would rather an immediate hard border than an open border as we seek out an amicable solution then that is their choice.
If you want to save May's deal the path is clear. Stop arguing with those who want the deal fixed and argue with our partners to save this deal.
Do you agree that if the backstop goes this deal could pass Parliament?0 -
Hypothetically if the Irish react to Parliament rejecting the deal by agreeing to drop the backstop, then would the amended deal pass Parliament?Scott_P said:
Without the backstop there is no deal.Philip_Thompson said:Do you agree that if the backstop goes this deal could pass Parliament?
0 -
Dream on.....Big_G_NorthWales said:
I would want an absolute commitment by the EU that our rebate is safe and we remain as exactly as we are now with no hidden covenants or conditionsBeverley_C said:
Surely remainers have been putting forward scenario after scenario for the last two years and debunking the "We will be fine - something will turn up!" trope pushed by many Leavers?Big_G_NorthWales said:
So you are happy for remainers to act in the same way as leaveEl_Capitano said:
You're free to pose questions, Big G, but the lesson from Leave's victory is that the side that ignores the hard questions and simply goes "lalala we have a plan and it will be terrific" is the one that wins. Corbyn knows this very well.Big_G_NorthWales said:The peoples vote campaign need to sharpen up their act. Using peoples vote is as dishonest as the bus and is just so annoying, they need to be honest and call it a second referendum
However, for those supporters of a second referendum I pose the following questions
As for schedules, well they are out there. We have a hard deadline of March 2019. The CJEU are considering an important aspect of Brexit and the mechanisms for cancelling it. The case has been made over and over again about economic damage and the lies of the "We will be swamped by immigrants" strategy.
What more do you want?0 -
You're just making stuff up.Philip_Thompson said:They will only exercise that power if we forfeit our rebate though.
What I find amazing about this is the overlap between the people who thought the rest of the EU would redesign the 4 freedoms to keep Britain in if Cameron would only negotiate hard enough and the people who think the exact same people would refuse to accept the status quo in return for the evaporation of a serious headache.0 -
So are you. Maths doesn't lie, where do you get a majority from?Big_G_NorthWales said:
Yes but you are fighting a losing causePhilip_Thompson said:
A deal that can't pass Parliament is no deal.
Do you agree that if the backstop goes this deal could pass Parliament?0 -
Who said what specifically?Philip_Thompson said:
They've already said they'd remove our rebate.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Thank you for your response which I agree with to an extent.edmundintokyo said:
I think you're saying you don't believe my answer? The UK is already a member of the EU. It has not yet left. The problem is cancelling / extending the Article 50 notification, not rejoining. The EU Council specifically has the power to extend its departure indefinitely, and probably has the power to cancel it definitively (there should be a ruling on this soon). The EU Parliament is not involved. The EU Council members can literally reach agreements overnight when there's a crisis, and have done on previous occasions.Big_G_NorthWales said:
With respect that is a lazy answer. A statement that the EU wouldn't expect........ and a phone call to the 27 in a week and of course ignore the EU Parliament just does not provide a serious response to a genuine question which is not even a trick questionedmundintokyo said:
The UK wouldn't be *rejoining*, because it's already a member. This is part of the reason the People's Vote people are in such a hurry to get a People's Vote now rather than just letting Britain Brexit then rejoin when it turns out not necessarily to Britain's advantage, because joining is much, much harder than not leaving.Big_G_NorthWales said:
How do they obtain EU acceptance we would rejoin on exactly the same terms and conditions, bearing in mind this would require the EU Council and Parliament to endorse the terms.
But as we discussed upthread it would go much more smoothly with an assurance that they'd agree to Remain and wouldn't expect change of status, which would involve someone on the British waiting until a time of the day when Jean-Claude Juncker was reasonably sober and having a word with him, then him getting all the other 27 members on the phone, so I dunno, a week?
If you cancel or indefinitely extend the Article 50 notification, nothing has happened to change anything else about the UK's status. However, since Leave supporters would certainly claim that it would, it would be politically useful to get a clear statement to this effect. If you don't believe me when I say they'd almost certainly do that, go back to the comments discussing this upthread and tell me where you disagree.
However, key to winning is that the EU do not put conditions on us remaining, remove our rebate, or insert restrictive covenants. That has to receive formal EU consent0 -
And the overlap with the people who think ending free movement wasn’t why people voted for Brexit.edmundintokyo said:
You're just making stuff up.Philip_Thompson said:They will only exercise that power if we forfeit our rebate though.
What I find amazing about this is the overlap between the people who thought the rest of the EU would redesign the 4 freedoms to keep Britain in if Cameron would only negotiate hard enough and the people who think the exact same people would refuse to accept the status quo in return for the evaporation of a serious headache.0 -
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-eu-budget-rebate-gunther-oetinger-second-referendum-remain-a8580616.htmledmundintokyo said:
You're just making stuff up.Philip_Thompson said:They will only exercise that power if we forfeit our rebate though.
What I find amazing about this is the overlap between the people who thought the rest of the EU would redesign the 4 freedoms to keep Britain in if Cameron would only negotiate hard enough and the people who think the exact same people would refuse to accept the status quo in return for the evaporation of a serious headache.0 -
The EU have had 20+ years of Boris's bad faith, and now the ERG's saliva drenched chomping at the bit to be rid of the shackles at the first available opportunity. Would you really trust these lunatics to honour a gentleman's good faith clause and do the right things to sort the Irish border before setting sail? No? (for it is the only possible answer). Well, neither should the EU - too bloody right they want a backstop.Philip_Thompson said:
I'm not suggesting we seek out no deal. I'm saying we prepare for it as a backstop in case it happens and say we go for May's deal but replace the backstop with a good faith and sincere co-operation commitment to an open Irish border.Big_G_NorthWales said:
ERG have no more than 80 mps with the rest alligned against no dealPhilip_Thompson said:
Was that said as someone who backed remain or leave?Big_G_NorthWales said:
With respect that is just a rant and even I trust our HOC to stop that in its tracksPhilip_Thompson said:
Good! Because "this whole thing" isnt Brexit which is why it was negotiated by and for Remainers. It's why the deals biggest cheerleaders are remainers. Shoot down the deal, tell the Irish we have a deal if they drop the backstop, run the clock down and prepare for no deal. Let the Irish sort their own mess out.rottenborough said:
What does it matter now? Seems clear that Leaver representatives in Parliament are determined to blow-up their own dream by scuppering anything that might just work and chasing off after unicorns.Scott_P said:
You have BoZo's personal blog. Google "The Telegraph" to read itXenon said:Oh FFS are leavers allowed to have any media that represents their views?
Nothing the Daily Mail says looks likely to swing 100 or more of ultras back from shooting the whole thing down imho.
Do you expect HOC MPs who backed remain or leave to stop it?
If our good faith and sincere co-operation isn't good enough and the Irish would rather an immediate hard border than an open border as we seek out an amicable solution then that is their choice.
For all this is supposedly getting messy, Tory dealers are still being far too polite about their opponents to win this. Time to go for the full on Blue on Blue attack and lay bare the dark hearts of these imbeciles.
0 -
Basically yes. Animal welfare in the US is appalling in comparison with EU/UK standards, so the animals are often dosed to prevent them getting ill and humans ingest that. At slaughter, the animals are frequently filthy and the washing down with Chlorine Dioxide removes bacteria.OllyT said:
As I understood it it is not the fact that it is chlorinated per se that is the issue it is the reasons why it needs to be chlorinated that is the problem. Not sure I am right but I'm sure someone will correct me if not!notme said:Scott_P said:
That's the problem right there.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Jessop, nobody forced her to sign up to the backstop, or to proceed on the basis of staying as close as possible to the EU rather than trying to maximise the advantages of leaving.
There are no advantages to leaving.
Importing chlorinated chicken from the US is not an advantage.
Abandoning workers' rights and environmental standards is not an advantage.
Can you please enlighten us as to what is in fact wrong with chlorinated chicken.
In summary - US farmers do it as cheap as they can. Low welfare = lower costs = more profits.0 -
To paraphrase the Boots ad (which is itself a re-working of Robbie Williams' "She's the One"):
Now I can see here
Stable and Strong
Th'resa May0 -
Very good post as ever.Cyclefree said:This comment -
“May is not a good person. May is nasty, incompetent, dishonest xenophobe, devoid of wisdom, charm, personality or wit. She's bloody minded for the sake of being bloody minded. She has ruined everything she's touched, and her entire political career has been focused on being as mean and obnoxious as possible to all immigrants.
She's a vile old hag and all of her suffering is 1000% earned.
Good riddance to bad rubbish tbh, it's just a shame her suffering will soon be over. I'd have liked to see her suffer a great deal more.”
from @grabcocque on the previous thread is a touch OTT.
May is not up to the job of being PM and has not handled the Brexit issue well. Though even Solomon would have struggled, I dare say.
But she achieved the deportation of Abu Qatada, which is more than can be said of previous, possibly nicer, Home Secretaries, she tried to deal with the very real perception by young black men that they were being unfairly targeted by the police, she helped the Hillsborough families behind the scenes and was praised by them for her help and she has pushed through quite a lot of action on the issue of modern slavery. And it was not her who started the attacks on the Windrush generation (though she can be criticised for continuing them in such an unept and hurtful way). She has also done a lot within the Tory party to help women become candidates.
There are plenty of things she can be criticised for. For instance, her reported refusal to countenance giving asylum to Asia Bibi for fear of enraging extremist Muslims here (contrary to the wishes of the current Home and Foreign Secretaries) is utterly shameful.
But to call someone a “vile old hag” and wish suffering on a woman in public life smacks of an unpleasantly bullying and mysogynistic attitude which reflects rather more - and badly IMO - on those saying and supporting such things than on the target.
The debate has descended into some on here actually admitting to enjoying the division and deadlock. Fortunately, no matter how divisive this is I very much doubt enjoyment in most of their minds0 -
Can someone cleverer than me (most of you) please explain how 48% of those that voted leave and 46% of those that voted remain are for the deal but only 41% total? Thanks.0
-
Fair enough, but if you read the article this isn't a remain quid-pro-quo particularly, it's his long-term goal.Philip_Thompson said:
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-eu-budget-rebate-gunther-oetinger-second-referendum-remain-a8580616.htmledmundintokyo said:
You're just making stuff up.Philip_Thompson said:They will only exercise that power if we forfeit our rebate though.
What I find amazing about this is the overlap between the people who thought the rest of the EU would redesign the 4 freedoms to keep Britain in if Cameron would only negotiate hard enough and the people who think the exact same people would refuse to accept the status quo in return for the evaporation of a serious headache.0 -
When - do you have the linkPhilip_Thompson said:
They've already said they'd remove our rebate.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Thank you for your response which I agree with to an extent.edmundintokyo said:
I think you're saying you don't believe my answer? The UK is already a member of the EU. It has not yet left. The problem is cancelling / extending the Article 50 notification, not rejoining. The EU Council specifically has the power to extend its departure indefinitely, and probably has the power to cancel it definitively (there should be a ruling on this soon). The EU Parliament is not involved. The EU Council members can literally reach agreements overnight when there's a crisis, and have done on previous occasions.Big_G_NorthWales said:
With respect that is a lazy answer. A statement that the EU wouldn't expect........ and a phone call to the 27 in a week and of course ignore the EU Parliament just does not provide a serious response to a genuine question which is not even a trick questionedmundintokyo said:
The UK wouldn't be *rejoining*, because it's already a member. This is part of the reason the People's Vote people are in such a hurry to get a People's Vote now rather than just letting Britain Brexit then rejoin when it turns out not necessarily to Britain's advantage, because joining is much, much harder than not leaving.Big_G_NorthWales said:
How do they obtain EU acceptance we would rejoin on exactly the same terms and conditions, bearing in mind this would require the EU Council and Parliament to endorse the terms.
But as we discussed upthread it would go much more smoothly with an assurance that they'd agree to Remain and wouldn't expect change of status, which would involve someone on the British waiting until a time of the day when Jean-Claude Juncker was reasonably sober and having a word with him, then him getting all the other 27 members on the phone, so I dunno, a week?
If you cancel or indefinitely extend the Article 50 notification, nothing has happened to change anything else about the UK's status. However, since Leave supporters would certainly claim that it would, it would be politically useful to get a clear statement to this effect. If you don't believe me when I say they'd almost certainly do that, go back to the comments discussing this upthread and tell me where you disagree.
However, key to winning is that the EU do not put conditions on us remaining, remove our rebate, or insert restrictive covenants. That has to receive formal EU consent0 -
I think it would.Philip_Thompson said:
Hypothetically if the Irish react to Parliament rejecting the deal by agreeing to drop the backstop, then would the amended deal pass Parliament?Scott_P said:
Without the backstop there is no deal.Philip_Thompson said:Do you agree that if the backstop goes this deal could pass Parliament?
0 -
I think there are three solutions to the backstop.
Eurosceptics and unionists won't like them two of them though.
i) The first is concluding a FTA - that's the most desirable.
ii) The second is a unilateral option to reaceed to the European Union. I think that would mean probably joining the Euro, so whether a government of ours would wish to exercise it is debateable - nevertheless it is a solution to the border issues if no others can be found. In practice I believe UK Governments would probably stay in the backstop. It might be an option outside of the scope of the WA anyway, someone might want to ask the EU... I do not think we are precluded from ever rejoining.
iii) The other is a straight referendum in Northern Ireland to rejoin the Republic. If passed the backstop can be ditched, of course NI citizens should hold an indefinite right to British passports. I think the Irish Gov't would grant this if the referendum was won by the nationalist side. NI may however vote to stay and enjoy the benefits as @rcs1000 has set out.
Contrary to my assertion the WA likely couldn't be changed, I think the EU might agree to some sort of fast tracked option ii) as a minor amendment to the WA if we put it to them. But we won't ask for it.0 -
Morning All
Seems we are doing quite well with the rest of the World. Sorry if it has been posted already.
Telegraph
Anna Isaac, economics correspondent
27 NOVEMBER 2018 • 5:58PM
Follow
The UK has won agreement for its independent membership of the Government Procurement Agreement (GPA) at the World Trade Organisation (WTO), ensuring it will retain access to a market worth $1.7 trillion after Brexit.
The GPA is an agreement among 46 WTO members that allows them to bid for government contracts for the provision of goods, services or construction in each others' countries. Members include the US, the European Union and Japan.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2018/11/27/breakthrough-uk-trillion-dollar-trade-agreement/?li_source=LI&li_medium=li-recommendation-widget
Mike0 -
Which makes our future membership entirely untenable. Our net contribution would go from £8.9 billion to £14.5 billion pa. It would make us the biggest net contributor to the EU. Most expensive free trade deal ever.Philip_Thompson said:
They've already said they'd remove our rebate.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Thank you for your response which I agree with to an extent.edmundintokyo said:
I think you're saying you don't believe my answer? The UK is already a member of the EU. It has not yet left. The problem is cancelling / extending the Article 50 notification, not rejoining. The EU Council specifically has the power to extend its departure indefinitely, and probably has the power to cancel it definitively (there should be a ruling on this soon). The EU Parliament is not involved. The EU Council members can literally reach agreements overnight when there's a crisis, and have done on previous occasions.Big_G_NorthWales said:
With respect that is a lazy answer. A statement that the EU wouldn't expect........ and a phone call to the 27 in a week and of course ignore the EU Parliament just does not provide a serious response to a genuine question which is not even a trick questionedmundintokyo said:
The UK wouldn't be *rejoining*, because it's already a member. This is part of the reason the People's Vote people are in such a hurry to get a People's Vote now rather than just letting Britain Brexit then rejoin when it turns out not necessarily to Britain's advantage, because joining is much, much harder than not leaving.Big_G_NorthWales said:
How do they obtain EU acceptance we would rejoin on exactly the same terms and conditions, bearing in mind this would require the EU Council and Parliament to endorse the terms.
But as we discussed upthread it would go much more smoothly with an assurance that they'd agree to Remain and wouldn't expect change of status, which would involve someone on the British waiting until a time of the day when Jean-Claude Juncker was reasonably sober and having a word with him, then him getting all the other 27 members on the phone, so I dunno, a week?
If you cancel or indefinitely extend the Article 50 notification, nothing has happened to change anything else about the UK's status. However, since Leave supporters would certainly claim that it would, it would be politically useful to get a clear statement to this effect. If you don't believe me when I say they'd almost certainly do that, go back to the comments discussing this upthread and tell me where you disagree.
However, key to winning is that the EU do not put conditions on us remaining, remove our rebate, or insert restrictive covenants. That has to receive formal EU consent0 -
In the broader context, this is worth noting too from the same page:Beverley_C said:
"The UK had a trade surplus with the USA of around £34 billion in the year to June 2017, so we export more to them than we import. In terms of services, the UK had a surplus of over £23 billion, and in terms of goods we had a surplus of over £10 billion in that time."
https://fullfact.org/economy/trade-deficit-surplus-USA-EU/
"The UK ran a trade deficit with the EU of around £80 billion in year to June 2017, so we export less than we import...... This is primarily driven by goods—the UK had a trade deficit of just under £97 billion with the EU during that time. In terms of services, we had a surplus of £17 billion."
In May's agreement, the UK has committed to maintaining the same general open trading relationship that produced that £97bn deficit in goods, at the price of giving the EU and its individual member states huge leverage in resolving numerous specific issues through the resort to a backstop we cannot leave if the UK does not play ball. [Macron's signalled blackmail over fishing rights is just a taster.] On the other hand, in terms of the £17bn surplus in services, May has secured diddly squat in terms of an agreement to secure a continuation for the UK of the current arrangements for financial services, with the EU having the unilateral right to pull the plug on those arrangements giving notice of just one month.
So, in a nutshell, May's agreement protects the £97bn EU trade surplus in goods with the UK, yets endangers the £17bn UK surplus in services. Worst of all worlds.0 -
I would not be surprised if the rebate was the penalty for stopping the whole mess, but I do not know and it probably will have to wait on the CJEU ruling.Big_G_NorthWales said:
I would want an absolute commitment by the EU that our rebate is safe and we remain as exactly as we are now with no hidden covenants or conditionsBeverley_C said:
Surely remainers have been putting forward scenario after scenario for the last two years and debunking the "We will be fine - something will turn up!" trope pushed by many Leavers?Big_G_NorthWales said:
So you are happy for remainers to act in the same way as leaveEl_Capitano said:
You're free to pose questions, Big G, but the lesson from Leave's victory is that the side that ignores the hard questions and simply goes "lalala we have a plan and it will be terrific" is the one that wins. Corbyn knows this very well.Big_G_NorthWales said:The peoples vote campaign need to sharpen up their act. Using peoples vote is as dishonest as the bus and is just so annoying, they need to be honest and call it a second referendum
However, for those supporters of a second referendum I pose the following questions
As for schedules, well they are out there. We have a hard deadline of March 2019. The CJEU are considering an important aspect of Brexit and the mechanisms for cancelling it. The case has been made over and over again about economic damage and the lies of the "We will be swamped by immigrants" strategy.
What more do you want?
Even if we do lose the rebate, the EU would be wise to get us to agree to a sliding scale loss were we lose the rebate in increments across a period of (say) 10 or 15 years.0 -
200 plus conservative mps and the rest of the HOCPhilip_Thompson said:
So are you. Maths doesn't lie, where do you get a majority from?Big_G_NorthWales said:
Yes but you are fighting a losing causePhilip_Thompson said:
A deal that can't pass Parliament is no deal.
Do you agree that if the backstop goes this deal could pass Parliament?0 -
There is nothing good about Mrs May's Deal.Wulfrun_Phil said:
In the broader context, this is worth noting too from the same page:Beverley_C said:
"The UK had a trade surplus with the USA of around £34 billion in the year to June 2017, so we export more to them than we import. In terms of services, the UK had a surplus of over £23 billion, and in terms of goods we had a surplus of over £10 billion in that time."
https://fullfact.org/economy/trade-deficit-surplus-USA-EU/
"The UK ran a trade deficit with the EU of around £80 billion in year to June 2017, so we export less than we import...... This is primarily driven by goods—the UK had a trade deficit of just under £97 billion with the EU during that time. In terms of services, we had a surplus of £17 billion."
In May's agreement, the UK has committed to maintaining the same general open trading relationship that produced that £97bn deficit in goods, at the price of giving the EU and its individual member states huge leverage in resolving numerous specific issues through the resort to a backstop we cannot leave if the UK does not play ball. [Macron's signalled blackmail over fishing rights is just a taster.] On the other hand, in terms of the £17bn surplus in services, May has secured diddly squat in terms of an agreement to secure a continuation for the UK of the current arrangements for financial services, with the EU having the unilateral right to pull the plug on those arrangements giving notice of just one month.
So, in a nutshell, May's agreement protects the £97bn EU trade surplus in goods with the UK, yets endangers the £17bn UK surplus in services. Worst of all worlds.0 -
Only fools need purchase itphiliph said:
I thought it had more chlorine and less salmonella, so it is a compromise.Scott_P said:
That's the problem right there.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Jessop, nobody forced her to sign up to the backstop, or to proceed on the basis of staying as close as possible to the EU rather than trying to maximise the advantages of leaving.
There are no advantages to leaving.
Importing chlorinated chicken from the US is not an advantage.
Abandoning workers' rights and environmental standards is not an advantage.
I would rather berate US chicken for lower standards of animal welfare (which is largely why chlorine is required). I also think that would be a more effective argument in UK. We are accustomed to chlorine in water, swimming pools, it is not a scary element. We are far more motivated by animal welfare.
As a consumer I would be more concerned about the use of growth hormones in meat.0 -
European Commission’s budget chief:Big_G_NorthWales said:
When - do you have the linkPhilip_Thompson said:
They've already said they'd remove our rebate.Big_G_NorthWales said:Thank you for your response which I agree with to an extent.
However, key to winning is that the EU do not put conditions on us remaining, remove our rebate, or insert restrictive covenants. That has to receive formal EU consent
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-eu-budget-rebate-gunther-oetinger-second-referendum-remain-a8580616.html
https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu-rebate/britain-would-lose-eu-rebate-even-if-it-decided-to-ditch-brexit-eu-official-idUKKCN1MM1PV
Verhofstadt: https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/jun/14/perks-end-uk-eu-guy-verhofstadt0 -
As I've said many times before, the headache for the EU wouldn't evaporate unless the Europhobes are thoroughly defeated at the ballot box.edmundintokyo said:
You're just making stuff up.Philip_Thompson said:They will only exercise that power if we forfeit our rebate though.
What I find amazing about this is the overlap between the people who thought the rest of the EU would redesign the 4 freedoms to keep Britain in if Cameron would only negotiate hard enough and the people who think the exact same people would refuse to accept the status quo in return for the evaporation of a serious headache.
The EU know that they'll just be back in this same situation in a few years.0