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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Survation-Daily Mail poll finds growing support for TMay’s Bre
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Survation-Daily Mail poll finds growing support for TMay’s Brexit deal
The big overnight Brexit news is a Survation poll for the Daily Mail which is being splashed all over its front page as can be seen above.
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Pretty weird that half of those who voted leave actually support it...
https://twitter.com/SpaJw/status/1067550310833373185
They buy the Daily Mail every day.
Too many MPs have got this badly wrong.
Perfect compromise.
Their actions will lead to us Remaining in the EU.
TBH, as a Remainer, I hope that it's soon, as, while many people will say the worst won't happen....... and they'll probably be right........a bit of spelling out could tip more Leavers over into the Second Referendum and Remain camp.
Meanwhile, Maclaren suggests there could easily be problems for Formula 1. I know from people involved that it's a LOT easier shipping the kit for the races to places in the EU as opposed to elsewhere.
We can therefore be fairly sure it won't happen.
Any party who votes it down so we leave without one - which is the alternative (fantasy posts about us unilaterally withdrawing A50 to reintroduce it later on the last thread say more about how much alcohol people are drinking than reality) faces wipeout in the Midlands for 25 years. It would make the Tories in Liverpool and West Yorkshire look like a picnic.
"You can always count on Americans to do the right thing - after they've tried everything else."
Just saying...
The split between Tories and Labour shows that a lot of support from leavers comes from Tories scared of Corbyn.
We must remember that Mrs May plays chess in four dimensions; we cannot understand the moves but only see the results.
She survived at the Home Office for such a long time where so many have failed, and emerged with her reputation intact to nab the top job that some of the most ambitious politicians in the country spend every waking moment plotting to win. Despite the worst inheritance of any PM she continues to survive apparently against the odds, and beyond politics is held in reasonably and remarkably high esteem by voters across the spectrum.
Doubtless at her deep game she identified that a Tory majority was an impediment to her objectives, and devised a truly cunning plan to dispense with it. And continue in office thereafter; an achievement that would have been beyond anyone not already mistress of the fourth dimension.
She is surely playing out an equally complex plan right now, which isn't apparent to those of us trapped in just the theee dimensions? We just need to wait to see what transpires,
Things seem so much clearer before I have properly woken up.
As far as actually getting another referendum, there is time before the 29th March, given that the arguments have been done to death.
2) SNP/LD/Lab-Remainists say they'll vote for it but only with a referendum, PM takes the deal
3) EU grant an extension for this purpose
4) Parliament passes deal+referendum legislation
5) Have referendum
Not *probable* I know, but I don't think there's anything in there that's *unrealistic*. And that's not the only route that gets you there.
Duh
What happens next? Two options for the Tories - a quick coronation of a Boris figure or a bitter civil war.
1. PM Boris. Almost certainly Labour would VONC him. Would the Tory MPswho openly despise him vote confidence in him? Or will Tory abstainers offset votes won from the DUP? Assuming he passes we then move straight to the next crisis where he goes to Brussels, they refuse to budge and he says "fine, no deal then". As so many Tory MPs are clearly against no deal I think this is less likely than
2. Tory Civil War. They would have a point when they try to justify a full contest as being in the national interest because the alternative is option 1. However, would leave us with no functioning government at a time when we don't have time for that, hence another VONC which I expect they'd lose.
At which point the scenario puts Corbyn into number 10 for a brief period sustained by the Tories abstaining. However, from a Labour position the glaring problems are:
1. Corbyn, like May, has said a lot of things very unpopular with the membership. Unable to restrain himself Corbyn is likely to declare his intention to leave the EU and EEA and the adoption of a permanent CU. As this is an even worse position than May's deal I wonder how he gets that through the Commons. And worse for Corbyn is
2. The membership are not going to allow Jezbollah to lead out out of the EU and EEA. He only has unflinching support from cultists, the vast majority of Corbyn supporting members are pro EU and won't stand for him smashing their hopes.
Fun times ahead...
Remainer wishful thinking is a sight to behold today. As is the ERG 'we can do better than this' shtick.
If we don't have accept the deal, we leave without a deal. Everyone who votes against a deal will be directly responsible for that no deal. Pipe dreams about unicorns and another referendum hinder, they do not help.
The solution is to accept the loss, and move forward. Ditto for the ERG brigade - accept the partial win, and move forward.
Basically, the law as it stands is that referendums are advisory. They cannot therefore ratify ex post facto, or indeed be used for any strictly legal purpose.
The Daily Mail is becoming May's most important single supporter. FWIW I would have said yes, yes and god yes to these questions.
It is not May's deal or No Deal. It is EFTA/EEA + CU or Remain. May's deal is dead. No Deal is a non-starter. So we either leave to existing treaties (EFTA/EEA) or we don't leave.
It is worrying so many obviously intelligent people don't get this basic fact becuase they really, really don't want it to be true.
Have a good morning.
There may well be more support for the Deal in the country than Parliament (though of course very few of the public have read it! ), so clearly the way forward is a #peoplesvote on it. That must surely be the reason for May being out on the stump.
Another Dune fan by the way?
https://www.judiciary.uk/wp-content/uploads/2016/11/summary-r-miller-v-secretary-of-state-for-exiting-the-eu-20161103.pdf
IANAL but it doesn't appear to say that. It says the act that parliament passed for the previous referendum doesn't authorize the government to pull Article 50 without asking them, but as any fule kno the previous referendum was non-binding. I can't see anything in it that says parliament says you can't pass a binding one.
Is "It's not ideal - but it's the best on offer?" the actual question?
Helpful for getting the Yes number higher. And Yes/No usually helps Yes.
The main story is how far the Mail has shifted since Dacre left.
Oh well can't win everything, midterms were not too bad overall
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http://amp.charlotteobserver.com/news/politics-government/election/article222263905.html?__twitter_impression=true
if this result is reversed then that's 41 pickups for the Dems. Not a
wave.
The deal question for the Leavers was always going to be 'Do you trust Mrs May?' She may be incompetent and out of her depth, but when she says it's the first step on the road to Brexit, does she mean it?
She may only be a woman, but on trust that's probably a plus.
2. The EU are clear about their position. Red lines are not being compromised. No further bespoke deal cakeism. But also that they don't want no deal Brexit and would prefer us to stay
3. EEA has always been on the table. We have not triggered the 12 months notice to leave it, and if we sign a bilateral deal with EFTA no cake deal is needed. Uniquely NI forces a customs solution which has already been agreed
4. Also on the wish list of "please let this not be true" is that in less than 2 weeks May's deal will be history and her government with it.
I also fail to see how a close referendum result, especially if an option such as 'remain' or 'leave' is left off, will not solve anything.
I find it hard to think of who you are referring to, as May gets routinely slated by almost everyone on here, especially after last year.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-46357121
You might just have a point, malc.
The other 15% relates to whether Remain would in fact be available and whether in fact Britain might get an extension to sort itself out.
The rest is verbiage.
And Sarah Vine's hubby might well have been sacked by May at one point but wasn't he recently offered (and turned down) the job of Brexit Secretary?
I think you'd really want to get the rest of the member states to agree ahead of time that the UK could come back in without changing its status. The idea that a bunch of countries that are having all kinds of problems with the Eurozone are suddenly going to try to forcibly recruit a country that doesn't want to join is ludicrously bonkers, but the voters don't know this, and the Leave campaign(s) would certainly claim it. I also think the other member states would agree to make an assurance like this, as they like it when problems go away, but it's not 100% certain.
What it solves is getting an arrangement that doesn't blow up the economy into law. It's true that it doesn't solve the problem of getting people who disagree with each other about EU to stop arguing on the internet, but that's not a sensible or achievable goal, as the previous referendum should have shown.
Genuinely surprised it's that high (coincidentally the same as the percentage who voted to Remain the first time). Still, makes ye olde bet on said referendum likelier to come off.
It's remarkable how so many Remainers seem to want to equate Brexit with May's deal.
https://twitter.com/BBCNormanS/status/1067692922555023360
If the deal is deal, and no deal is a disaster, and the will is there to find a third way, then shockingly we're into classic EU deal territory, where it's always last minute. A deal will be done. Not a cakeist deal, an off the shelf deal that we could have had from the start. Rescinding A50 is one such option. "Not in our gift" is true. But as the EU want no deal as little as we do it would be a truly epic play on their part to deny the new UK government such a request.
The alternatives
No deal
Remain
So unless you are a no deal fan, this deal IS Brexit.
That brings us to the interesting question of the question that might be posed by a second referendum. It's also why I think that May's Deal versus Remain is the way likeliest to result in us staying after all.
https://twitter.com/BethRigby/status/1067694375529005056
Despite this, people still voted to leave.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-46309561
And I'm unsure how you can claim she 'deliberately' negotiated a terrible deal.
In fact, the Political Statement isn't a viable end state agreement. It's going to change very significantly anyway.
Edited extra bit: Mr. Mark, it's true there's much obnoxious behaviour on Twitter, but plenty of civility and interesting discussion too. Had a conversation with a polite stranger yesterday about how well or badly Bottas did in 2018, particularly regarding bad luck in the first half of the season. Led me to slightly amend a mostly written driver head-to-head post that'll go up after the season review.
The fact more Leave and Remain voters support the Deal than oppose it and want it to pass shows the Deal is the only way to unite the country now.
EUref2 or No Deal would hugely divide us again on Remain v No Deal Leaver lines
But the Tories are too divided.
That was passed by Parliament (both houses) subject to a confirmatory referendum.
'Well why are you as custodian of the nations finances doing it? Because we can keep out foreigners which is what a majority of British people want us to do'
https://twitter.com/DPhinnemore/status/1067687407196274688?s=19