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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Once again the money’s going on TMay not making it to the end
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Once again the money’s going on TMay not making it to the end of the year
Her best bet now pic.twitter.com/s0QZJFCJaP
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Last chance to salvage the wreckage of his career...
But they have not done that. What they have released is a personal political opinion from Cox, when the government is committed to delivering a professional, legal one.
The government is absolutely trying to pull a fast one here.
The most stupid thing about it is we already know (via cabinet leaks and context from minutes) that the advice was catastrophic.
Hiding it achieves nothing except making things worse for May by making her looks shifty, undemocratic and terrified of Parliament knowing the full truth.
Let's make the debate be between Boris and the Shouty Parliament Square Remainer Man.
Sources have said Manafort went to see Assange in 2013, 2015 and in spring 2016 – during the period when he was made a key figure in Trump’s push for the White House.
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2018/nov/27/manafort-held-secret-talks-with-assange-in-ecuadorian-embassy
It looks like his private consultancy work may have strayed into areas the Emiratis took exception to - then because the FCO (yes, Boris, you) had recently mucked up the Nazanin Zaghari-Ratcliffe case officials may have been reluctant to involve Boris in this case ("What's a little spying between friends?").....so instead of it being quickly sorted out at high level it ended up in the hands of the Dubai Court system and had to grind on....
https://twitter.com/BBCNews/status/1067422842604716033
1. the Brexit vote;
2. a parliamentary VoNC after losing the Brexit vote;
3. a Tory party VoNC after losing the Brexit vote;
4. a Tory party VoNC after winning the Brexit vote.
1. She will lose the vote but her sense of duty will surely mean she won't walk away now and leave the country with a political vacuum for 6-8 weeks.
2. If she did lose a parliamentary VoNC, she might well resign and give the Tories the chance to unite around a new leader, either to get the DUP back on side or else to fight a general election. However, I don't think the chances of the Tories losing a parliamentary vote of confidence are at all high. All Con MPs will come back on side and the DUP have a huge amount to lose from throwing away the current Commons maths.
3. Seems unlikely. She would surely only go once a new PM had been elected and unlike after a parliamentary VoNC, when time pressures would be acute, a Tory leadership election triggered now, never mind in mid-Dec, would have to go into January if contested - which it would be.
4. We shouldn't rule out the possibility that May could be No Confidenced by her party if she won the vote off the back of Labour abstentions but that seems far more likely on a second vote rather than a first, when Corbyn is clearly gunning for a GE.
All in all, I think it's less than a 10% chance that she'll go this year.
Under 2), wouldn't she still remain leader of the Conservative party until a successor was chosen (and therefore likely next year)? Would/could she stand down for a caretaker leader?
Members of parliament from Argentina, Brazil, Canada, Ireland, Latvia, Singapore, France, Belgium and the UK criticised chief executive Mark Zuckerberg for refusing to be questioned by the committee about fake news and disinformation."
https://www.ft.com/content/67968ece-f240-11e8-9623-d7f9881e729f
Titter
So we would be locked in the EU. Forever. Whatever they decide. Currency. Army. Tax. Imagine that....could any PM agree to that?
this is why a second referendum isn't nailed on for Remain, and why arguements which didn't work for Leave last time (Euro/Army etc etc) are now available to them.
They would need all 27 to agree and the terms of agreement
Indeed, but this isn't about the case outcome unless I have seriously misunderstood.
If there is to be any hope of avoiding Hard Brexit, a nw PM has to go to Brussels and say "Your guys and our guys tried. They failed. Their efforts will lead us to Hard Brexit. Are you happy for that - or do you want to see if we can come up with another form of wording we can put to the House?" Clearly Theresa May will never go down that route. The longer she hangs around, the more likely we are to just eat up the time where Something Else gets discussed.
And surely, if we do somehow get a deal, NOBODY would want her within a million miles of further negotiation of our future trade relationship with the EU?
In any case, it's hard to see who in the EU27 would veto a revocation. The French and Germans would love to have a chastened and humbled UK back, for ever after if we complained about something they could just say "what are you going to do about it, leave?". The more Eurosceptic countries like Denmark, Poland and Sweden would be glad not to lose a kindred voice, the net receivers would be glad to keep a net contributor.
Maybe Italy would just to throw another maverick spanner in the works, or threaten to as leverage in their budget dispute. Maybe Spain would use it to try and get Gibraltar back. But if either did, I think the rest of the EU27 would put so much pressure on them they'd back down.
Make Cox the PM. Then he can tell us what his advice was - and what the options are.
In which case, it probably does make Remain more tricky. Which in turn might just possibly sway a lot of Remainer MPs to May's Deal?
"Brexit - The Slide Into Chaos"
Then again on the 12th, 13th, 14th, etc. until passed.
The agreement made a provision that they would be enshrined in the next round of treaty negotiations under the ordinary revision procedure. It would also have required primary union regulations to make legally binding on the institutions.
So basically they were a legally binding annex that would have been added in to the next treaty revision.
Very Brexit.
TBH, that's not as onerous as it sounds, because I think the Union will be delighted if we decide to stay and won't try to scare us off by loading up the agreement with unreasonable demands.
However, I do think it would almost certainly contain a requirement that the UK be disbarred from invoking A50 again for a reasonably long time.
Obviously, there's no guarantee that a successor could be chosen without opposition but the rules are flexible on this point. The 1922 Exec could propose an amendment to require nominees to need, say, the support of 20% of the Party's MPs, rather than just 2 MPs as at present - and ram the rule change through within 24 hours.
A caretaker emerges from the Men In Gray Suits to be Prime Minister for the next few months whilst the Tories figure out how to stop Boris Johnson from winning a leadership election.
The caretaker PM would need to be somebody who has no intention of taking part in the forthcoming leadership contest.
Cold, gloomy, wet. Where's this Mediterranean climate I was promised?
In despairing news, my elastic band remains obscured, hidden in a subtle realm that no human eye can pierce.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-46338585
Staying in is a lot cheaper.
Currently, I'm working on three theories:
1) global warming caused it to evaporate
2) Brexit meant it was confiscated pre-emptively by an EU elastic commissar
3) Cthulhu ate it