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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Once again the money’s going on TMay not making it to the end

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  • PolruanPolruan Posts: 2,083

    rcs1000 said:

    And we're back.

    What I failed to say before was:

    I think we're heading towards a No Deal / Remain referendum, which will end up poisoning politics in this country for a generation.

    That looks very possible now. On the principle that at every stage the worst choice has been made, that implies a vote for no deal.

    No deal is better than a bad deal.

    Is this sentence ambiguous? Discuss.
    Yes, should be clarified with a hyphen between the first two words.
  • Who do people think will be the winner of the BREXIT debate between Theresa May and Jeremy Corbyn?

    A) Jeremy Corbyn

    B ) Amber Rudd

    I won't be watching...it will be my deal is the best possible one available vs the Tories, the Tories, the Tories, the Tories, austerity, evil capitalist, yadda yadda yadda.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,220
    Disgraceful. Had this kidnapping" been prosecuted in a court of law, because bad things happen when you are involved in gang drug wars. It's an appalling message sent out by the judge.
  • If she had not stood down and gone on to win the leadship, would Andrea Leadsom have done a better job negotiating Brexit than May?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,146
    edited November 2018
    Pulpstar said:

    Disgraceful. Had this kidnapping" been prosecuted in a court of law, because bad things happen when you are involved in gang drug wars. It's an appalling message sent out by the judge.
    But the poor lamb had a nasty time....it isn't like he has been previously involved in violent criminality...oh wait....
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,220

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    TBF if we had any doubts what letting a raging xenophobe with a long history of unpleasant anti-immigrant aggression put together a Brexit deal would look like, we know now.

    Everything must get sacrificed on the altar of May's hatred of immigrants.

    Including, mercifully, May herself.

    May is a raging xenophobe now?
    What do you mean "now"?

    I'm just not sure I see the connection between being tough on illegal immigrants on being a "raging xenophobe".
    It's not just illegal immigrants she hates, is it?
    She hates legal immigrants too.
    EU citizens who come here to work.
    People who have lived and worked and contributed and raised families and have grandkids.

    Remember that time as Home Sec when she proposed to force companies to "disclose" how many non-British workers they employed and a UKIP spokesman condemned her for being "too extreme"?

    Remember that time Theresa May lied repeatedly about how a person couldn't be deported because they owned a cat?

    Remember when in December 2016, the BBC reported that May wanted the children of immigrants to go to the bottom of the list for school places?

    Mrs May was the only cabinet minister who insisted on blocking efforts to reassure EU citizens that they would be allowed to remain in the UK in the immediate aftermath of the Brexit vote.

    And let's not forget the Windrush scandal that Theresa May oversaw. Doesn't matter if you're an immigrant who has lived here for three generations, as far as May is concerned you're an immigrant and therefore disposable scum.

    Theresa May is a massive, massive xenophobe and an all-round nasty piece of work.

    And once more for good luck: image

    I am DELIGHTED to see her suffer. I'm just sad that it'll be all over soon and we won't get to watch her suffer a great deal more.
    But if May goes, what will you do with your days?
    What about if you are in fact in the UK illegally though :) ?
  • alex.alex. Posts: 4,658
    May should insert a clause into the withdrawal agreement triggering a General Election should it pass. That might give Labour a few second thoughts.
  • It's going to be a long two weeks to the meaningful vote, isn't it?

    Perhaps infinity - in that we will never get a meaningful vote.
  • alex. said:

    May should insert a clause into the withdrawal agreement triggering a General Election should it pass. That might give Labour a few second thoughts.

    Can she with the FTPA?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,220

    Who do people think will be the winner of the BREXIT debate between Theresa May and Jeremy Corbyn?

    A) Jeremy Corbyn

    B ) Amber Rudd

    The leader of the Lib Dems, Nick Clegg.
  • This evening's ITV news report from South Wales Farmers market was as positive as I have heard for TM. Lots of support and simmering anger against mps. They want the deal done and are supportive of TM

    Also report in Guardian of her trip to Newry again receiving support from farmers, industry and the public and most are not at all happy with the DUP. Indeed the DUP are the only party against the deal in Northern Ireland

    I am certain the public are growing in support for her and there may well be a back lash both if the mps take the deal down and especially if they take her down. I do not think the public trusts anyone else

    Now this is at odds with these threads and of course I hope she wins through but we are in our own bubble here and maybe, just maybe, the public's fury will be directed at those who throw us into chaos rather than TM. I think some sensible reflection may be needed
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,746
    Pulpstar said:

    Who do people think will be the winner of the BREXIT debate between Theresa May and Jeremy Corbyn?

    A) Jeremy Corbyn

    B ) Amber Rudd

    The leader of the Lib Dems, Nick Clegg.
    “I agree with Nick (Boles).”
  • Pulpstar said:

    Disgraceful. Had this kidnapping" been prosecuted in a court of law, because bad things happen when you are involved in gang drug wars. It's an appalling message sent out by the judge.
    You need to read the details to understand the judge has effectively sentenced him harshly if he is a bad boy in the future.

    He's given a 2 year suspended sentence, which is in line with sentencing guidelines, which becomes six months behind bars before he'd be released on HDC.

    He's already done six months on remand, so had he not been given a suspended sentence he'd have been released today.
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256

    If she had not stood down and gone on to win the leadship, would Andrea Leadsom have done a better job negotiating Brexit than May?

    No.
  • rcs1000 said:

    And we're back.

    What I failed to say before was:

    I think we're heading towards a No Deal / Remain referendum, which will end up poisoning politics in this country for a generation.

    You mean politics isn't poisoned already?
  • I suggest be waits for the verdict. He may end up looking foolish
  • HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Replacing May is pointless, there is no better Deal on offer from the EU, as Juncker has made clear it is this Deal or No Deal.

    If May goes the only viable alternative would be Boris on a No Deal ticket or Corbyn on a ticket of permanent Customs Union membership

    Has Boris actually advocated No Deal? Surely even he wouldn't plunge us into that madness. I assume he'll initiate some sham negotiations with the EU again before presenting us with the Boris Deal, which will be all but indistinguishable from the current one.
    Boris wants Canada Plus he can only get that for GB according to Barnier unless he prepares to abandon Northern Ireland he will have to.back No Deal as the EU are not offering anything else
    Are you part of some mystical faith with Barnier as some sort of spokesman from God?

    Barnier says we can only get that from GB. We tell Barnier to go jump. We then talk.
    Barnier then says so off.

    No Deal screws you more thsn us, bye bye. You are 16% of our exports we are 44% of yours.

    As Juncker has said it is this Deal or No Deal. End of conversation
    We are 45% of Irish agricultural exports and 80% of their overall goods exports either go to the UK or over the UK land bridge.

    So yeah I call bluff.
    Yes, we have the rEU over a barrel because we have a trade deficit with them, and
    we have Ireland over a barrel because we have a trade surplus with them.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,220

    This evening's ITV news report from South Wales Farmers market was as positive as I have heard for TM. Lots of support and simmering anger against mps. They want the deal done and are supportive of TM

    Also report in Guardian of her trip to Newry again receiving support from farmers, industry and the public and most are not at all happy with the DUP. Indeed the DUP are the only party against the deal in Northern Ireland

    I am certain the public are growing in support for her and there may well be a back lash both if the mps take the deal down and especially if they take her down. I do not think the public trusts anyone else

    Now this is at odds with these threads and of course I hope she wins through but we are in our own bubble here and maybe, just maybe, the public's fury will be directed at those who throw us into chaos rather than TM. I think some sensible reflection may be needed

    The Tories in Westminster should really get behind her. Many are being too clever by half at the moment.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    edited November 2018
    It doesn't specify how Parliament must direct the Government. I would think it would require an Act of Parliament to direct the Government and not merely a Commons Early Day Motion.

    Especially due to the principles in R Miller
  • Andy_CookeAndy_Cooke Posts: 5,005
    In August, Taylor Smith, an eighteen year old girl in Washington State, pushed her friend off a 60-feet high bridge into a river.

    Her justification was that her friend had said she was going to jump. The friend appeared ti change her mind, so the girl pushed her off.

    The friend suffered multiple broken ribs and punctured lungs but should eventually recover.

    Miss Smith is being charged with reckless endangerment.

    Seeing as the friend had already said she wanted to jump when given a free choice and had even clambered over the rail before freezing and looking as if she would back out, is it wrong to prosecute Miss Smith? After all, the decision had been made so couldn't be withdrawn. Miss Smith was just helping her to do it; allowing her to change her mind would be to infringe her right to make a choice.
  • https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/paul-manafort-julian-assange-wikileaks-meeting-democratic-email-leak-trump-clinton-a8654556.html

    "This story is totally false and deliberately libellous," he said. "I have never met Julian Assange or anyone connected to him. I have never been contacted by anyone connected to Wikileaks, either directly or indirectly." - Manafort

    Well either Manafort and Wikileaks are telling total Porkies, or the Guardian has duff sources...
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,628

    This evening's ITV news report from South Wales Farmers market was as positive as I have heard for TM. Lots of support and simmering anger against mps. They want the deal done and are supportive of TM

    Also report in Guardian of her trip to Newry again receiving support from farmers, industry and the public and most are not at all happy with the DUP. Indeed the DUP are the only party against the deal in Northern Ireland

    I am certain the public are growing in support for her and there may well be a back lash both if the mps take the deal down and especially if they take her down. I do not think the public trusts anyone else

    Now this is at odds with these threads and of course I hope she wins through but we are in our own bubble here and maybe, just maybe, the public's fury will be directed at those who throw us into chaos rather than TM. I think some sensible reflection may be needed

    We are more in tune here with the MPs who will decide her fate, having to look several moves ahead for their best career move....

    But if the tone is people just want Brexit done, I think there will be a backlash against a second referendum. Whinchester by-election anyone? That's how ornery the voters can get when you mess them around.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Winchester_by-election,_1997
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,914

    This evening's ITV news report from South Wales Farmers market was as positive as I have heard for TM. Lots of support and simmering anger against mps. They want the deal done and are supportive of TM

    Also report in Guardian of her trip to Newry again receiving support from farmers, industry and the public and most are not at all happy with the DUP. Indeed the DUP are the only party against the deal in Northern Ireland

    I am certain the public are growing in support for her and there may well be a back lash both if the mps take the deal down and especially if they take her down. I do not think the public trusts anyone else

    Now this is at odds with these threads and of course I hope she wins through but we are in our own bubble here and maybe, just maybe, the public's fury will be directed at those who throw us into chaos rather than TM. I think some sensible reflection may be needed

    The Channel 4 vox pop from Wales was hilarious. 'Well I voted Brexit but it wasn't like they told us see'. They never said we might not get the same subsidies for our farmers. I think we should run the vote again now we know things like'

    I know the Welsh have spent centuries avoiding civilizing influences but really......
  • HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Replacing May is pointless, there is no better Deal on offer from the EU, as Juncker has made clear it is this Deal or No Deal.

    If May goes the only viable alternative would be Boris on a No Deal ticket or Corbyn on a ticket of permanent Customs Union membership

    Has Boris actually advocated No Deal? Surely even he wouldn't plunge us into that madness. I assume he'll initiate some sham negotiations with the EU again before presenting us with the Boris Deal, which will be all but indistinguishable from the current one.
    Boris wants Canada Plus he can only get that for GB according to Barnier unless he prepares to abandon Northern Ireland he will have to.back No Deal as the EU are not offering anything else
    Are you part of some mystical faith with Barnier as some sort of spokesman from God?

    Barnier says we can only get that from GB. We tell Barnier to go jump. We then talk.
    Barnier then says so off.

    No Deal screws you more thsn us, bye bye. You are 16% of our exports we are 44% of yours.

    As Juncker has said it is this Deal or No Deal. End of conversation
    We are 45% of Irish agricultural exports and 80% of their overall goods exports either go to the UK or over the UK land bridge.

    So yeah I call bluff.
    Yes, we have the rEU over a barrel because we have a trade deficit with them, and
    we have Ireland over a barrel because we have a trade surplus with them.
    No we don't have anyone over a barrel, we have them wanting a deal too. The idea that they would just go "No Deal. End of Conversation" is bollocks, they want a deal too. If this deal is dead [it is] then it will require some amendments to fix it so it can pass Parliament - and anyone who says otherwise is being disingenuous or is in denial.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,414

    Was PB.com going down, because of Brexit or despite Brexit?

    Looking at the historical record, it would seem it was @BigG. :)
  • I thought we'd get a deal passed but now I'm rather pessimistic.

    I'll be thinking of you all from the safety of Canada next March.
  • anothernickanothernick Posts: 3,591

    This evening's ITV news report from South Wales Farmers market was as positive as I have heard for TM. Lots of support and simmering anger against mps. They want the deal done and are supportive of TM

    Also report in Guardian of her trip to Newry again receiving support from farmers, industry and the public and most are not at all happy with the DUP. Indeed the DUP are the only party against the deal in Northern Ireland

    I am certain the public are growing in support for her and there may well be a back lash both if the mps take the deal down and especially if they take her down. I do not think the public trusts anyone else

    Now this is at odds with these threads and of course I hope she wins through but we are in our own bubble here and maybe, just maybe, the public's fury will be directed at those who throw us into chaos rather than TM. I think some sensible reflection may be needed

    The public is sympathetic to May's plight, but this is the kind of sympathy that is felt for a furry animal being torn apart by a pack of hyenas. It does not mean "the public" expects its sympathy to be of any use and it certainly won't change any minds at Westminster.

    If May was serious about winning this vote she would be eyeballing MPs not TV cameras in distant villages.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,220

    Pulpstar said:

    Disgraceful. Had this kidnapping" been prosecuted in a court of law, because bad things happen when you are involved in gang drug wars. It's an appalling message sent out by the judge.
    You need to read the details to understand the judge has effectively sentenced him harshly if he is a bad boy in the future.

    He's given a 2 year suspended sentence, which is in line with sentencing guidelines, which becomes six months behind bars before he'd be released on HDC.

    He's already done six months on remand, so had he not been given a suspended sentence he'd have been released today.
    I know Onasunya is no Saint but a nominal long prison sentence and no time behind bars, but all the other dire consequences of a long prison sentence (If she is found guilty in the retrial) would be appropriate whereas I really think this sort of thuggery needs a few years in actual prison.
    I'm aware the prisons are overcrowded so I'm suggesting where a lighter time behind bars (Did Huhne actually be needed to be locked up ?) Is appropriate in order to free up the prisons for acumbags like this.
  • NEW THREAD

  • Roger said:

    This evening's ITV news report from South Wales Farmers market was as positive as I have heard for TM. Lots of support and simmering anger against mps. They want the deal done and are supportive of TM

    Also report in Guardian of her trip to Newry again receiving support from farmers, industry and the public and most are not at all happy with the DUP. Indeed the DUP are the only party against the deal in Northern Ireland

    I am certain the public are growing in support for her and there may well be a back lash both if the mps take the deal down and especially if they take her down. I do not think the public trusts anyone else

    Now this is at odds with these threads and of course I hope she wins through but we are in our own bubble here and maybe, just maybe, the public's fury will be directed at those who throw us into chaos rather than TM. I think some sensible reflection may be needed

    The Channel 4 vox pop from Wales was hilarious. 'Well I voted Brexit but it wasn't like they told us see'. They never said we might not get the same subsidies for our farmers. I think we should run the vote again now we know things like'

    I know the Welsh have spent centuries avoiding civilizing influences but really......
    I saw one person interviewed say that but believe you me, reporting in Wales is much more positive for TM than you may hope for
  • dixiedean said:

    Was PB.com going down, because of Brexit or despite Brexit?

    Looking at the historical record, it would seem it was @BigG. :)
    What have I done now !!!!
  • This evening's ITV news report from South Wales Farmers market was as positive as I have heard for TM. Lots of support and simmering anger against mps. They want the deal done and are supportive of TM

    Also report in Guardian of her trip to Newry again receiving support from farmers, industry and the public and most are not at all happy with the DUP. Indeed the DUP are the only party against the deal in Northern Ireland

    I am certain the public are growing in support for her and there may well be a back lash both if the mps take the deal down and especially if they take her down. I do not think the public trusts anyone else

    Now this is at odds with these threads and of course I hope she wins through but we are in our own bubble here and maybe, just maybe, the public's fury will be directed at those who throw us into chaos rather than TM. I think some sensible reflection may be needed

    The public is sympathetic to May's plight, but this is the kind of sympathy that is felt for a furry animal being torn apart by a pack of hyenas. It does not mean "the public" expects its sympathy to be of any use and it certainly won't change any minds at Westminster.

    If May was serious about winning this vote she would be eyeballing MPs not TV cameras in distant villages.
    She has done nothing but eyeballing mps so far
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    For what it's worth, I don't think that Leave's greatest failure after the referendum was failing to take charge of the negotiations. I think Leave's greatest failure was not to attempt to address the concerns of many Remain voters and seek to forge a consensus. You can't blame Theresa May for that because all the worst culprits were all the most prominent Leavers.

    What that means is that wherever Brexit goes from here, it will remain controversial and divide the nation for years to come.

    May was the one who decided that ending Freedom of Movement was the be all and end all of Brexit. It was she who failed to forge a consensus. Indeed given that she was directing the whole process from the day she was elected, she was the only one who could forge that consensus.

    And to be honest what sensible person would want to forge a consensus or reach out to you considering you spend all day ranting about racists and xenophobes like a stuck record.
    You don't have to reach out to me if you don't want to. But writing off 48% of the population, as Leavers did, was nuts.

    PS The way in which the Brexit negotiations have played out has rather justified my point. The referendum was fought on an anti-immigration prospectus and implemented accordingly. All Leavers' present difficulties stem from the pandering to xenophobia that so many of them enthusiastically fell in behind.
    Technically not

    The present difficulties arise from a Remainers *interpretation* of the Leave campaign

    I rather think that had you been responsible you would have argued that xenophobia drive the campaign
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    In August, Taylor Smith, an eighteen year old girl in Washington State, pushed her friend off a 60-feet high bridge into a river.

    Her justification was that her friend had said she was going to jump. The friend appeared ti change her mind, so the girl pushed her off.

    The friend suffered multiple broken ribs and punctured lungs but should eventually recover.

    Miss Smith is being charged with reckless endangerment.

    Seeing as the friend had already said she wanted to jump when given a free choice and had even clambered over the rail before freezing and looking as if she would back out, is it wrong to prosecute Miss Smith? After all, the decision had been made so couldn't be withdrawn. Miss Smith was just helping her to do it; allowing her to change her mind would be to infringe her right to make a choice.

    Miss Smith wasn’t instructed to push her friend off the bridge

    The government works for the people. The people gave clear instruction.
  • Andy_CookeAndy_Cooke Posts: 5,005
    edited November 2018
    Charles said:

    In August, Taylor Smith, an eighteen year old girl in Washington State, pushed her friend off a 60-feet high bridge into a river.

    Her justification was that her friend had said she was going to jump. The friend appeared ti change her mind, so the girl pushed her off.

    The friend suffered multiple broken ribs and punctured lungs but should eventually recover.

    Miss Smith is being charged with reckless endangerment.

    Seeing as the friend had already said she wanted to jump when given a free choice and had even clambered over the rail before freezing and looking as if she would back out, is it wrong to prosecute Miss Smith? After all, the decision had been made so couldn't be withdrawn. Miss Smith was just helping her to do it; allowing her to change her mind would be to infringe her right to make a choice.

    Miss Smith wasn’t instructed to push her friend off the bridge

    The government works for the people. The people gave clear instruction.
    She merely helped her.
    Did she do anything wrong be doing so? After all, the only negative outcome of her action was that Miss Holgerson didn't have the choice to change her mind.
    Which, arguably, is a choice people shouldn't have.
    She'd chosen to jump. She could only rescind that choice after enacting it by jumping.
    At this point, her only valid decision was feet-first or head-first (or, as it turned out, belly-first).
  • Andy_CookeAndy_Cooke Posts: 5,005
    And, apposite to it all, Miss Smith has argued that her friend DID give her instruction. She claims that her friend, earlier, and before climbing over the rail, told her to give her a push if necessary.
    However, the friend then rescinded that instruction after climbing over the rail and looking down into the abyss.
    Miss Smith then shoved her off anyway.
    If the girl in question had been your daughter, would you have regarded Miss Smith's action as wrong? Or would you regard the friend as having had the right to change her mind and rescind her earlier action before jumping?
This discussion has been closed.