politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Monkey’s paw. Delivering on the referendum campaign promises
Comments
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He really is. It’s embarrassing.CarlottaVance said:Good grief he's thick:
https://twitter.com/DavidLammy/status/1066973585963651072
The conduct of our politicians since 2016 makes me wonder if jury service for the Commons would give better results than election.
How can our rulers be so dismal?0 -
Apart from the only bit which matters 52/48.grabcocque said:
I think we've already pretty comprehensively exhausted the idea that Parliament truly cares what the electorate think.Pulpstar said:
Without another referendum ?grabcocque said:
Remain?Richard_Nabavi said:
A second referendum requires an extension to Article 50, and that requires the unanimous consent of the EU27. They would probably grant it if they thought there was a reasonably good chance of the referendum resolving things, although we can't be sure, and it's not unlikely that one or more of the countries would seek to use it as leverage (on Gibraltar or fish, for example, as has been suggested). And then there are all the issues about what the referendum options should be, and no guarantee that the referendum would produce the 'right' or indeed any clear result.YellowSubmarine said:The paradoxes of a second referendum remain. We won't get a second referendum unless Brexit collapses and if Brexit collapses a second referendum won't be an immediate priority. Brexit will only collapse under the pressure of the A50 deadline and political failure. But by the time we get to the A50 deadline to precipitate a second referendum there won't be time for a second referendum.
All in all, the whole thing is the biggest mess imaginable, and the only way out of the mess is the one which MPs seem very likely to reject.
That really would be a democratic abomination.0 -
At risk of overextending this metaphor long past the breaking point, let's just accept that, yes. Trust in May is so abyssal at this point, most people would risk burning to death rather than give her the benefit of the doubt.Pulpstar said:
Even if you think that do you remain in the building to be burnt alive ?grabcocque said:
Um, May was the one that poured petrol over the building in the first place.Richard_Nabavi said:
It's not Mrs May that has blocked all the other exits, it's the EU negotiating position. I don't recommend rage, but if you want to indulge I suggest you rant in that direction.YellowSubmarine said:
I agree with your first three points. Your fourth point that we have to accept May's deal because May has blocked all the exits save that one then set the building on fire ... provokes a visceral rage I've never felt in my political life. I won't be alone.Richard_Nabavi said:
A second referendum requires an extension to Article 50, and that requires the unanimous consent of the EU27. They would probably grant it if they thought there was a reasonably good chance of the referendum resolving things, although we can't be sure, and it's not unlikely that one or more of the countries would seek to use it as leverage (on Gibraltar or fish, for example, as has been suggested). And then there are all the issues about what the referendum options should be, and no guarantee that the referendum would produce the 'right' or indeed any clear result.YellowSubmarine said:The paradoxes of a second referendum remain. We won't get a second referendum unless Brexit collapses and if Brexit collapses a second referendum won't be an immediate priority. Brexit will only collapse under the pressure of the A50 deadline and political failure. But by the time we get to the A50 deadline to precipitate a second referendum there won't be time for a second referendum.
All in all, the whole thing is the biggest mess imaginable, and the only way out of the mess is the one which MPs seem very likely to reject.
But also, we can see the strapping lads of the fire department standing by outside with ladders and hoses, so we can treat May's desperate threats that we should jump out of the window with our eyes closed "or else" with some scepticism.0 -
Damn it, if only my careers teacher had told me Getting The Wrong End Of The Stick was a career choice.....CarlottaVance said:Good grief he's thick:
https://twitter.com/DavidLammy/status/10669735859636510720 -
The Withdrawal Agreement is essentially fixed, but the future arrangement that will take its place is wide open. The outcomes could include rejoining the EU or even not leaving in the first place. All of the options require EU consent so there's no reason to reflect a preferred path just because the EU hasn't agreed yet. Mrs May disengenuously pretends her outcome is the only one. Her many opponents should call her out on that if they think they have a better plan.Richard_Nabavi said:
A second referendum requires an extension to Article 50, and that requires the unanimous consent of the EU27. They would probably grant it if they thought there was a reasonably good chance of the referendum resolving things, although we can't be sure, and it's not unlikely that one or more of the countries would seek to use it as leverage (on Gibraltar or fish, for example, as has been suggested). And then there are all the issues about what the referendum options should be, and no guarantee that the referendum would produce the 'right' or indeed any clear result.YellowSubmarine said:The paradoxes of a second referendum remain. We won't get a second referendum unless Brexit collapses and if Brexit collapses a second referendum won't be an immediate priority. Brexit will only collapse under the pressure of the A50 deadline and political failure. But by the time we get to the A50 deadline to precipitate a second referendum there won't be time for a second referendum.
All in all, the whole thing is the biggest mess imaginable, and the only way out of the mess is the one which MPs seem very likely to reject.0 -
You can rage all you like. doesn't change the facts.YellowSubmarine said:
I agree with your first three points. Your fourth point that we have to accept May's deal because May has blocked all the exits save that one then set the building on fire ... provokes a visceral rage I've never felt in my political life. I won't be alone.Richard_Nabavi said:
A second referendum requires an extension to Article 50, and that requires the unanimous consent of the EU27. They would probably grant it if they thought there was a reasonably good chance of the referendum resolving things, although we can't be sure, and it's not unlikely that one or more of the countries would seek to use it as leverage (on Gibraltar or fish, for example, as has been suggested). And then there are all the issues about what the referendum options should be, and no guarantee that the referendum would produce the 'right' or indeed any clear result.YellowSubmarine said:The paradoxes of a second referendum remain. We won't get a second referendum unless Brexit collapses and if Brexit collapses a second referendum won't be an immediate priority. Brexit will only collapse under the pressure of the A50 deadline and political failure. But by the time we get to the A50 deadline to precipitate a second referendum there won't be time for a second referendum.
All in all, the whole thing is the biggest mess imaginable, and the only way out of the mess is the one which MPs seem very likely to reject.0 -
But both sides want an "orderly transition", the EU aren't conceding this as it is in their best interests too.Nigelb said:
The payment is mainly for the two years of orderly transition :Xenon said:
Perhaps explain what they are giving us in exchange for the money without using a metaphor.Richard_Nabavi said:
We are paying so that they gently remove the gun we've pointed at our heads.Xenon said:
If we're just going to WTO terms anyway, then what are we giving them £39bn for exactly? It was sold to the electorate as part of our leverage to get a decent trade deal.Richard_Nabavi said:
As always, though, you need to distinguish 'no deal' from the very different 'orderly transition to WTO terms'. Many people don't seem to understand the difference, and some of those who do (or should) often seem deliberately to conflate them.Sean_F said:
None of which refutes my argument that "lots of people favour No Deal.". It is quite possible that No Deal would win a referendum, starting from that base.
As I am starting to suspect that it's nothing.
https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/explainers/eu-divorce-bill
The deal in December did not contain an exact figure, though at the time, UK officials estimated a potential bill of £35–39 billion (bn).
The UK’s Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) set out detailed estimates of what the UK would pay in its Economic and Fiscal Outlook report, published alongside the Chancellor’s Spring Statement. That set out a total bill of €41.4bn (£37.1bn), extending out to 2064 as pension liabilities fall due.
But it also makes clear that around half consist of payments the UK will make during the transition phase. The OBR estimates net payments under the financial settlement of €18.5bn (£16.4bn) in 2019 and 2020, during the transition, followed by net payments of €7.6bn in 2021, €5.8bn (2022) €3.1bn (2023) and €1.7bn (2024) before falling away to €0.2bn in 2028. The liabilities, net of assets, that then remain to be paid amount to a total of €2.7bn over the period 2021–45....
So we're giving them £39bn in exchange for something they wanted anyway. It's a complete failure in negotiation.0 -
Vince, Adonis... strapping lads?grabcocque said:At risk of overextending this metaphor long past the breaking point, let's just accept that, yes. Trust in May is so abyssal at this point, most people would risk burning to death rather than give her the benefit of the doubt.
But also, we can see the strapping lads of the fire department standing by outside with ladders and hoses, so we can treat May's desperate threats that we should jump out of the window with our eyes closed "or else" with some scepticism.0 -
O/T
"Waitrose magazine's former editor who quit over 'killing vegans' remark claims vegans 'threatened to roast his baby and attack his wife'"
https://www.standard.co.uk/news/uk/waitrose-magazines-former-editor-who-quit-over-killing-vegans-comments-claimed-some-threatened-to-a4000291.html0 -
They don't have a better plan, that is exactly the point.FF43 said:The Withdrawal Agreement is essentially fixed, but the future arrangement that will take its place is wide open. The outcomes could include rejoining the EU or even not leaving in the first place. All of the options require EU consent so there's no reason to reflect a preferred path just because the EU hasn't agreed yet. Mrs May disengenuously pretends her outcome is the only one. Her many opponents should call her out on that if they think they have a better plan.
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Since the transition is to remain in under the same rules as present (but without voting rights) then the payments are mostly part of following those existing rules, they aren't made in order to be allowed the transition, but as a consequence of it.Xenon said:
But both sides want an "orderly transition", the EU aren't conceding this as it is in their best interests too.Nigelb said:
The payment is mainly for the two years of orderly transition :Xenon said:
Perhaps explain what they are giving us in exchange for the money without using a metaphor.Richard_Nabavi said:
We are paying so that they gently remove the gun we've pointed at our heads.Xenon said:
If we're just going to WTO terms anyway, then what are we giving them £39bn for exactly? It was sold to the electorate as part of our leverage to get a decent trade deal.Richard_Nabavi said:
As always, though, you need to distinguish 'no deal' from the very different 'orderly transition to WTO terms'. Many people don't seem to understand the difference, and some of those who do (or should) often seem deliberately to conflate them.Sean_F said:
None of which refutes my argument that "lots of people favour No Deal.". It is quite possible that No Deal would win a referendum, starting from that base.
As I am starting to suspect that it's nothing.
https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/explainers/eu-divorce-bill
The deal in December did not contain an exact figure, though at the time, UK officials estimated a potential bill of £35–39 billion (bn).
The UK’s Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) set out detailed estimates of what the UK would pay in its Economic and Fiscal Outlook report, published alongside the Chancellor’s Spring Statement. That set out a total bill of €41.4bn (£37.1bn), extending out to 2064 as pension liabilities fall due.
But it also makes clear that around half consist of payments the UK will make during the transition phase. The OBR estimates net payments under the financial settlement of €18.5bn (£16.4bn) in 2019 and 2020, during the transition, followed by net payments of €7.6bn in 2021, €5.8bn (2022) €3.1bn (2023) and €1.7bn (2024) before falling away to €0.2bn in 2028. The liabilities, net of assets, that then remain to be paid amount to a total of €2.7bn over the period 2021–45....
So we're giving them £39bn in exchange for something they wanted anyway. It's a complete failure in negotiation.0 -
Okay.FrancisUrquhart said:
Actually, that might be total fake news...I thought I read that in the article linked, but can't see it now. Might just be totally imaging it while doing 27 other things.AndyJS said:
That soon? Good news. I thought it would be in 3 months' time.FrancisUrquhart said:
11th December.AndyJS said:
When's the next trial likely to be?FrancisUrquhart said:
A Labour MP accused of lying about who was driving her speeding car will face a retrial after a jury failed to reach a verdict.TGOHF said:
Retrial ?Sean_F said:The jury has failed to reach a verdict in the trial of Fiona Onasanya.
Imagine her vote now blocks May's deal..
https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-cambridgeshire-46316184
You have got to be having a giraffe.0 -
May and her Whitehall functionaries have, to the maximum extent possible allowed under law, along with the combined weight of the Brussels mandarinate, conspired to lock Britain into an eternal BRINO thus "respecting" the will of the people only in the most trivial sense.Slackbladder said:
Apart from the only bit which matters 52/48.grabcocque said:
I think we've already pretty comprehensively exhausted the idea that Parliament truly cares what the electorate think.Pulpstar said:
Without another referendum ?grabcocque said:
Remain?Richard_Nabavi said:
A second referendum requires an extension to Article 50, and that requires the unanimous consent of the EU27. They would probably grant it if they thought there was a reasonably good chance of the referendum resolving things, although we can't be sure, and it's not unlikely that one or more of the countries would seek to use it as leverage (on Gibraltar or fish, for example, as has been suggested). And then there are all the issues about what the referendum options should be, and no guarantee that the referendum would produce the 'right' or indeed any clear result.YellowSubmarine said:The paradoxes of a second referendum remain. We won't get a second referendum unless Brexit collapses and if Brexit collapses a second referendum won't be an immediate priority. Brexit will only collapse under the pressure of the A50 deadline and political failure. But by the time we get to the A50 deadline to precipitate a second referendum there won't be time for a second referendum.
All in all, the whole thing is the biggest mess imaginable, and the only way out of the mess is the one which MPs seem very likely to reject.
That really would be a democratic abomination.0 -
Hey, my metaphor, my strapping lads. Capisce?Richard_Nabavi said:
Vince, Adonis... strapping lads?grabcocque said:At risk of overextending this metaphor long past the breaking point, let's just accept that, yes. Trust in May is so abyssal at this point, most people would risk burning to death rather than give her the benefit of the doubt.
But also, we can see the strapping lads of the fire department standing by outside with ladders and hoses, so we can treat May's desperate threats that we should jump out of the window with our eyes closed "or else" with some scepticism.0 -
They don't have any worse plans either. Maybe that is also the point.Richard_Nabavi said:
They don't have a better plan, that is exactly the point.FF43 said:The Withdrawal Agreement is essentially fixed, but the future arrangement that will take its place is wide open. The outcomes could include rejoining the EU or even not leaving in the first place. All of the options require EU consent so there's no reason to reflect a preferred path just because the EU hasn't agreed yet. Mrs May disengenuously pretends her outcome is the only one. Her many opponents should call her out on that if they think they have a better plan.
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Best line:AndyJS said:O/T
"Waitrose magazine's former editor who quit over 'killing vegans' remark claims vegans 'threatened to roast his baby and attack his wife'"
https://www.standard.co.uk/news/uk/waitrose-magazines-former-editor-who-quit-over-killing-vegans-comments-claimed-some-threatened-to-a4000291.html
“No one bays for the blood of a human more than a militant, raging vegan.”
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You're welcome to them! Although I should declare that I once danced round in circles holding hands with Lord Adonis at a bat mitzvah.grabcocque said:
Hey, my metaphor, my strapping lads. Capisce?Richard_Nabavi said:
Vince, Adonis... strapping lads?grabcocque said:At risk of overextending this metaphor long past the breaking point, let's just accept that, yes. Trust in May is so abyssal at this point, most people would risk burning to death rather than give her the benefit of the doubt.
But also, we can see the strapping lads of the fire department standing by outside with ladders and hoses, so we can treat May's desperate threats that we should jump out of the window with our eyes closed "or else" with some scepticism.0 -
Everyone seems certain the vote is going to be lost by miles.
So how come you can back No at 1.35 on Betfair - and you can bet a substantial sum (over £2,000) right now at between 1.3 and 1.35.0 -
Mr Cock sometimes on PB less is more , Capiscegrabcocque said:
Hey, my metaphor, my strapping lads. Capisce?Richard_Nabavi said:
Vince, Adonis... strapping lads?grabcocque said:At risk of overextending this metaphor long past the breaking point, let's just accept that, yes. Trust in May is so abyssal at this point, most people would risk burning to death rather than give her the benefit of the doubt.
But also, we can see the strapping lads of the fire department standing by outside with ladders and hoses, so we can treat May's desperate threats that we should jump out of the window with our eyes closed "or else" with some scepticism.0 -
Call the Vegan Police!AndyJS said:O/T
"Waitrose magazine's former editor who quit over 'killing vegans' remark claims vegans 'threatened to roast his baby and attack his wife'"
https://www.standard.co.uk/news/uk/waitrose-magazines-former-editor-who-quit-over-killing-vegans-comments-claimed-some-threatened-to-a4000291.html
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CgEmxGL1JvQ0 -
I refuse to make space for anyone else in my Dom Raab shrine.Richard_Nabavi said:
You're welcome to them! Although I should declare that I once danced round in circles holding hands with Lord Adonis at a bat mitzvah.grabcocque said:
Hey, my metaphor, my strapping lads. Capisce?Richard_Nabavi said:
Vince, Adonis... strapping lads?grabcocque said:At risk of overextending this metaphor long past the breaking point, let's just accept that, yes. Trust in May is so abyssal at this point, most people would risk burning to death rather than give her the benefit of the doubt.
But also, we can see the strapping lads of the fire department standing by outside with ladders and hoses, so we can treat May's desperate threats that we should jump out of the window with our eyes closed "or else" with some scepticism.0 -
Oppostion to May has gone full horseshoe.
Who'd have thought a #FBPEer would be singing the praises of Anne Marie Norris ?!
https://twitter.com/petersturdgess/status/10666138823142440960 -
Seems that Downing Street is already wargaming prosecuting the French under the backstop
https://twitter.com/ChrisMasonBBC/status/10670643092416020530 -
Piers Corbyn. Everyone's favourite "long-term weather forecaster".0
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The 11th December date was definitely in an early version of that story!AndyJS said:
Okay.FrancisUrquhart said:
Actually, that might be total fake news...I thought I read that in the article linked, but can't see it now. Might just be totally imaging it while doing 27 other things.AndyJS said:
That soon? Good news. I thought it would be in 3 months' time.FrancisUrquhart said:
11th December.AndyJS said:
When's the next trial likely to be?FrancisUrquhart said:
A Labour MP accused of lying about who was driving her speeding car will face a retrial after a jury failed to reach a verdict.TGOHF said:
Retrial ?Sean_F said:The jury has failed to reach a verdict in the trial of Fiona Onasanya.
Imagine her vote now blocks May's deal..
https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-cambridgeshire-46316184
You have got to be having a giraffe.0 -
Piers Corbyn is presumably what happens when you splice the DNA of Jeremy Corbyn and Piers Morgan into some horrific cronenburgian chimera.AndyJS said:Piers Corbyn. Everyone's favourite "long-term weather forecaster".
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Dunno but either way she belongs on the inside of a turkey!Nigelb said:
Is that the sage, or the Onion ... ?grabcocque said:The sage hath spoke (again):
https://twitter.com/MichaelPKleiman/status/10670517726765178910 -
Well, that market includes a second vote as well (provided it is in 2018).MikeL said:Everyone seems certain the vote is going to be lost by miles.
So how come you can back No at 1.35 on Betfair - and you can bet a substantial sum (over £2,000) right now at between 1.3 and 1.35.0 -
Just a point but when are the broadcasters on College Green going to do something about the EU zealots distracting their broadcasts. It looks like the BBC has a first floor stage to broadcast from but Sky have them prancing around their discussions0
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No now available at 1.4!
What is going on?
Odds are completely out of line with the debate on here and the entire narrative.0 -
This is an interesting story (though sadly with the standard journalistic inability to use the correct scientific units).
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2018/nov/26/arsenal-battery-power-emirates-stadium
Suggests that grid-scale batteries to smooth out the renewable supply are beginning to make economic sense.0 -
It might be huge. The real question is what happens to the odds after the first vote crashes to defeat. Whats the 'tipping point' for the odds to lengthen/shorten.MikeL said:No now available at 1.4!
What is going on?
Odds are completely out of line with the debate on here and the entire narrative.0 -
I know - but 2nd vote surely likely to be in the New Year - to turn a No into a Yes within a few days would be a very tall order.Tissue_Price said:
Well, that market includes a second vote as well (provided it is in 2018).MikeL said:Everyone seems certain the vote is going to be lost by miles.
So how come you can back No at 1.35 on Betfair - and you can bet a substantial sum (over £2,000) right now at between 1.3 and 1.35.0 -
I would have thought that was the more likely timing as well.MikeL said:
I know - but 2nd vote surely likely to be in the New Year - to turn a No into a Yes within a few days would be a very tall order.Tissue_Price said:
Well, that market includes a second vote as well (provided it is in 2018).MikeL said:Everyone seems certain the vote is going to be lost by miles.
So how come you can back No at 1.35 on Betfair - and you can bet a substantial sum (over £2,000) right now at between 1.3 and 1.35.0 -
The wankers have elongated their poles to reach the BBC stage.Big_G_NorthWales said:Just a point but when are the broadcasters on College Green going to do something about the EU zealots distracting their broadcasts. It looks like the BBC has a first floor stage to broadcast from but Sky have them prancing around their discussions
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Events will likely move very fast post-loss of the deal. But I can't imagine they'd move that fast.Tissue_Price said:
I would have thought that was the more likely timing as well.MikeL said:
I know - but 2nd vote surely likely to be in the New Year - to turn a No into a Yes within a few days would be a very tall order.Tissue_Price said:
Well, that market includes a second vote as well (provided it is in 2018).MikeL said:Everyone seems certain the vote is going to be lost by miles.
So how come you can back No at 1.35 on Betfair - and you can bet a substantial sum (over £2,000) right now at between 1.3 and 1.35.
Even if it were May's plan B and she stated in the immediate aftermath it was now her intention to seek a new referendum it wouldn't be enough.0 -
I believe a significant portion of the money is for our membership fees during the transition. To withold money legally due would seriously damage the country's already shaky international credibility for financial rectitude.Xenon said:
But both sides want an "orderly transition", the EU aren't conceding this as it is in their best interests too.Nigelb said:
The payment is mainly for the two years of orderly transition :Xenon said:
Perhaps explain what they are giving us in exchange for the money without using a metaphor.Richard_Nabavi said:
We are paying so that they gently remove the gun we've pointed at our heads.Xenon said:
If we're just going to WTO terms anyway, then what are we giving them £39bn for exactly? It was sold to the electorate as part of our leverage to get a decent trade deal.Richard_Nabavi said:
As always, though, you need to distinguish 'no deal' from the very different 'orderly transition to WTO terms'. Many people don't seem to understand the difference, and some of those who do (or should) often seem deliberately to conflate them.Sean_F said:
None of which refutes my argument that "lots of people favour No Deal.". It is quite possible that No Deal would win a referendum, starting from that base.
As I am starting to suspect that it's nothing.
https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/explainers/eu-divorce-bill
The deal in December did not contain an exact figure, though at the time, UK officials estimated a potential bill of £35–39 billion (bn).
The UK’s Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) set out detailed estimates of what the UK would pay in its Economic and Fiscal Outlook report, published alongside the Chancellor’s Spring Statement. That set out a total bill of €41.4bn (£37.1bn), extending out to 2064 as pension liabilities fall due.
But it also makes clear that around half consist of payments the UK will make during the transition phase. The OBR estimates net payments under the financial settlement of €18.5bn (£16.4bn) in 2019 and 2020, during the transition, followed by net payments of €7.6bn in 2021, €5.8bn (2022) €3.1bn (2023) and €1.7bn (2024) before falling away to €0.2bn in 2028. The liabilities, net of assets, that then remain to be paid amount to a total of €2.7bn over the period 2021–45....
So we're giving them £39bn in exchange for something they wanted anyway. It's a complete failure in negotiation.0 -
+1grabcocque said:
Piers Corbyn is presumably what happens when you splice the DNA of Jeremy Corbyn and Piers Morgan into some horrific cronenburgian chimera.AndyJS said:Piers Corbyn. Everyone's favourite "long-term weather forecaster".
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May has been remarkably good at maintaining the mandate of the referendum. She will finally put an end to two decades of mass migration. The billions we sent to French farmers will now go on domestic priorities. Whether murderers can vote or laws preventing human trafficking will stand will now be decided here in this country. And we can still sign trade deals on services, which cover 80% of our economy. Meanwhile, there will be no disruption to Northern Ireland and we can maintain JIT supply chains.
It's a great deal and will make Brexit a success, address the most inflammatory issues in British politics (Brexit and immigration) and set us up for a great next decade. The alternative is a Momentum Government with Corbyn unquestioned status in the Labour Party. A far left anti-business anti-growth regime maximising the damage of a cliff edge Brexit. Plus open doors immigration on a scale unseen before, as Corbyn years down even the restraints we have on non-EU immigration. This won't lead to people craving common sense conservatism or moderate social democracy. It will set us on a cause for ever more polarization and extremism.0 -
That was my easy way of getting rid of them, when I lived in Newcastle. "Sorry kids, I don't carry cash. Bye."SandyRentool said:
I'll wait until the kids doing 'Penny for the Guy' offer a contactless card reader to passing punters before declaring the end of cash!Anazina said:
A check that is impossible in cash trades.TudorRose said:
Actually the amount of BACS fraud is legion. This is why there is a new name check safeguard being implemented next year.Anazina said:
Next time you hear of gangsters paying for services via BACS let me know.TudorRose said:
Your third bullet point is clearly wrong. Electronic systems are equally prone to fraud and theft. In fact it is more likely to result in a higher amount being stolen because (generally) people only hold a 'survivable' amount of cash in person whilst a fraudster getting into your bank account electronically could steal the whole lot.Anazina said:
Er, no. That bird has flown. You are simply wrong.Morris_Dancer said:Don't blog much about current events, but here's one on the demented idea to abolish real money:
http://thaddeusthesixth.blogspot.com/2018/11/why-moving-to-digital-only-is-bad-thing_26.html
Cash is:
• wasteful
• environmentally unsound
• prone to fraud and theft
• inconvenient
• dirty
• heavy
• expensive to administer
As for your very weak anecdote about the banks going down and cash saving the day, what percentage of the population carry enough cash with them to survive more than a few hours do you think?
Cash is going only one way, I'm afraid.
As for your equally bonkers post about video games, er no. PlayStation prices vary, often in line with what the market will bear, so it's very often possible to find great games for less than the physical second hand price.
Games on DVD just create ye more plastic and landfill. We need to get used to paying for services, not throwaway physical things that take up space and create rubbish.
Cash is dead.
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Amber, please. This is not a place for your Theresa May fanfiction.Theo said:May has been remarkably good at maintaining the mandate of the referendum. She will finally put an end to two decades of mass migration. The billions we sent to French farmers will now go on domestic priorities. Whether murderers can vote or laws preventing human trafficking will stand will now be decided here in this country. And we can still sign trade deals on services, which cover 80% of our economy. Meanwhile, there will be no disruption to Northern Ireland and we can maintain JIT supply chains.
It's a great deal and will make Brexit a success, address the most inflammatory issues in British politics (Brexit and immigration) and set us up for a great next decade. The alternative is a Momentum Government with Corbyn unquestioned status in the Labour Party. A far left anti-business anti-growth regime maximising the damage of a cliff edge Brexit. Plus open doors immigration on a scale unseen before, as Corbyn years down even the restraints we have on non-EU immigration. This won't lead to people craving common sense conservatism or moderate social democracy. It will set us on a cause for ever more polarization and extremism.0 -
Depending on the scale of the defeat, you need one of: some cosmetic changes to the deal; some real changes to the deal; or the clock to tick down. The last of these looks most likely.grabcocque said:
Events will likely move very fast post-loss of the deal. But I can't imagine they'd move that fast.Tissue_Price said:
I would have thought that was the more likely timing as well.MikeL said:
I know - but 2nd vote surely likely to be in the New Year - to turn a No into a Yes within a few days would be a very tall order.Tissue_Price said:
Well, that market includes a second vote as well (provided it is in 2018).MikeL said:Everyone seems certain the vote is going to be lost by miles.
So how come you can back No at 1.35 on Betfair - and you can bet a substantial sum (over £2,000) right now at between 1.3 and 1.35.
Even if it were May's plan B and she stated in the immediate aftermath it was now her intention to seek a new referendum it wouldn't be enough.0 -
https://twitter.com/josephmdurso/status/1067047686325583873Big_G_NorthWales said:Just a point but when are the broadcasters on College Green going to do something about the EU zealots distracting their broadcasts. It looks like the BBC has a first floor stage to broadcast from but Sky have them prancing around their discussions
0 -
No it isn't - they lack an alternative plan. Ever since before the referendum I was one of many on here who asked Leave voters how they expected Brexit to happen and on what terms - the only answer ever given was that this was not thier task but the job of the government of the day. They never had a plan. That is the scandal. T. May has done the best job given the appalling mess she took on. Of course she bears some blame for this mess but there are plenty others sniping from the sidelines who are as responsible and have been from day one.grabcocque said:
They don't have any worse plans either. Maybe that is also the point.Richard_Nabavi said:
They don't have a better plan, that is exactly the point.FF43 said:The Withdrawal Agreement is essentially fixed, but the future arrangement that will take its place is wide open. The outcomes could include rejoining the EU or even not leaving in the first place. All of the options require EU consent so there's no reason to reflect a preferred path just because the EU hasn't agreed yet. Mrs May disengenuously pretends her outcome is the only one. Her many opponents should call her out on that if they think they have a better plan.
0 -
Complete crap. Freedom of movement, 80% of our economy, criminal justice and our billions of fees all returned to UK control. How is that possibly just a name change?grabcocque said:
May and her Whitehall functionaries have, to the maximum extent possible allowed under law, along with the combined weight of the Brussels mandarinate, conspired to lock Britain into an eternal BRINO thus "respecting" the will of the people only in the most trivial sense.Slackbladder said:
Apart from the only bit which matters 52/48.grabcocque said:
I think we've already pretty comprehensively exhausted the idea that Parliament truly cares what the electorate think.Pulpstar said:
Without another referendum ?grabcocque said:
Remain?Richard_Nabavi said:
A second referendum requires an extension to Article 50, and that requires the unanimous consent of the EU27. They would probably grant it if they thought there was a reasonably good chance of the referendum resolving things, although we can't be sure, and it's not unlikely that one or more of the countries would seek to use it as leverage (on Gibraltar or fish, for example, as has been suggested). And then there are all the issues about what the referendum options should be, and no guarantee that the referendum would produce the 'right' or indeed any clear result.YellowSubmarine said:The paradoxes of a second referendum remain. We won't get a second referendum unless Brexit collapses and if Brexit collapses a second referendum won't be an immediate priority. Brexit will only collapse under the pressure of the A50 deadline and political failure. But by the time we get to the A50 deadline to precipitate a second referendum there won't be time for a second referendum.
All in all, the whole thing is the biggest mess imaginable, and the only way out of the mess is the one which MPs seem very likely to reject.
That really would be a democratic abomination.
I can't work out if people claiming BINO are deliberately lying or completely stupid. Perhaps they are merely Russian trolls, actively trying to hurt the UK.0 -
The most curious of all their placards is the one asking "Brexit, is it worth it".Scott_P said:
https://twitter.com/josephmdurso/status/1067047686325583873Big_G_NorthWales said:Just a point but when are the broadcasters on College Green going to do something about the EU zealots distracting their broadcasts. It looks like the BBC has a first floor stage to broadcast from but Sky have them prancing around their discussions
0 -
Presumably because of the possibility of a combination of events: A) Chunk of Labour rebels bought off with some policy commitment, andMikeL said:Everyone seems certain the vote is going to be lost by miles.
So how come you can back No at 1.35 on Betfair - and you can bet a substantial sum (over £2,000) right now at between 1.3 and 1.35.
The whips hard at work.
It's hard to see how that bridges such a large gap tbh .... but at the same time Labour backbenchers are not exactly too bothered about following Corbyn's line, and the Tory whips have been pretty effective the last 2yrs.0 -
M'lud, do we find 2-5 a big price ?Tissue_Price said:
Depending on the scale of the defeat, you need one of: some cosmetic changes to the deal; some real changes to the deal; or the clock to tick down. The last of these looks most likely.grabcocque said:
Events will likely move very fast post-loss of the deal. But I can't imagine they'd move that fast.Tissue_Price said:
I would have thought that was the more likely timing as well.MikeL said:
I know - but 2nd vote surely likely to be in the New Year - to turn a No into a Yes within a few days would be a very tall order.Tissue_Price said:
Well, that market includes a second vote as well (provided it is in 2018).MikeL said:Everyone seems certain the vote is going to be lost by miles.
So how come you can back No at 1.35 on Betfair - and you can bet a substantial sum (over £2,000) right now at between 1.3 and 1.35.
Even if it were May's plan B and she stated in the immediate aftermath it was now her intention to seek a new referendum it wouldn't be enough.0 -
Everyone voting against the deal bears full responsibility for the economic damage that follows. Parliament is full of charlatans and toads, playing their pathetic partisan games with the wellbeing of British lives.Pulpstar said:Oppostion to May has gone full horseshoe.
Who'd have thought a #FBPEer would be singing the praises of Anne Marie Norris ?!
https://twitter.com/petersturdgess/status/10666138823142440960 -
She seemingly has even less of a grasp of the British Constitution than @Mortimer and @Charles, and that is really saying something.justin124 said:
She is talking gibberish re-VNOC territory. The Opposition can table such a vote at any time on matters totally unrelated to Brexit.grabcocque said:The sage hath spoke (again):
https://twitter.com/MichaelPKleiman/status/10670517726765178910 -
Not especially, though on balance it's probably value. I expect the/a deal in the end but I can easily see that being in January.Pulpstar said:
M'lud, do we find 2-5 a big price ?Tissue_Price said:
Depending on the scale of the defeat, you need one of: some cosmetic changes to the deal; some real changes to the deal; or the clock to tick down. The last of these looks most likely.grabcocque said:
Events will likely move very fast post-loss of the deal. But I can't imagine they'd move that fast.Tissue_Price said:
I would have thought that was the more likely timing as well.MikeL said:
I know - but 2nd vote surely likely to be in the New Year - to turn a No into a Yes within a few days would be a very tall order.Tissue_Price said:
Well, that market includes a second vote as well (provided it is in 2018).MikeL said:Everyone seems certain the vote is going to be lost by miles.
So how come you can back No at 1.35 on Betfair - and you can bet a substantial sum (over £2,000) right now at between 1.3 and 1.35.
Even if it were May's plan B and she stated in the immediate aftermath it was now her intention to seek a new referendum it wouldn't be enough.0 -
Most of which was from outside the EU...Theo said:May has been remarkably good at maintaining the mandate of the referendum. She will finally put an end to two decades of mass migration.
As for free movement, when will it end? You can’t say because this deal doesn’t tell us what the future relationship will be.0 -
Scott - I wondered where you'd disappeared to.Scott_P said:
https://twitter.com/josephmdurso/status/1067047686325583873Big_G_NorthWales said:Just a point but when are the broadcasters on College Green going to do something about the EU zealots distracting their broadcasts. It looks like the BBC has a first floor stage to broadcast from but Sky have them prancing around their discussions
0 -
Reminder of some of May's Greatest Fuckups of 2016-2018:felix said:
No it isn't - they lack an alternative plan. Ever since before the referendum I was one of many on here who asked Leave voters how they expected Brexit to happen and on what terms - the only answer ever given was that this was not thier task but the job of the government of the day. They never had a plan. That is the scandal. T. May has done the best job given the appalling mess she took on. Of course she bears some blame for this mess but there are plenty others sniping from the sidelines who are as responsible and have been from day one.grabcocque said:
They don't have any worse plans either. Maybe that is also the point.Richard_Nabavi said:
They don't have a better plan, that is exactly the point.FF43 said:The Withdrawal Agreement is essentially fixed, but the future arrangement that will take its place is wide open. The outcomes could include rejoining the EU or even not leaving in the first place. All of the options require EU consent so there's no reason to reflect a preferred path just because the EU hasn't agreed yet. Mrs May disengenuously pretends her outcome is the only one. Her many opponents should call her out on that if they think they have a better plan.
1) Invoking article 50 before knowing where she wanted to end up
2) Calling and losing an unnecessary general election whilst the clock was ticking
3) having lost her majority, failed to build any cross party consensus in Parliament
4) Agreed to the EU's ludicrous scheduling of negotiations
5) Agreed to the BACKSTOP. This is the big one, the error of her career.
6) Wasted an entire summer trying to get the EU to swallow checkers
7) Sold out the UK fishing industry
8) Sold out Gibraltar
9) Agreed to a £40bn divorce bill in exchange for basically nothing
10) Alienated both remainers and leavers at the same time, using opposite arguments.
11) Called a meaningful vote she was doomed to lose by a humiliating margin0 -
I hope Robbie Gibb is paying you well for posting this drivel.Theo said:
Everyone voting against the deal bears full responsibility for the economic damage that follows. Parliament is full of charlatans and toads, playing their pathetic partisan games with the wellbeing of British lives.Pulpstar said:Oppostion to May has gone full horseshoe.
Who'd have thought a #FBPEer would be singing the praises of Anne Marie Norris ?!
https://twitter.com/petersturdgess/status/10666138823142440960 -
The exit was blocked by every MP who voted to trigger Article 50, not just Theresa May.YellowSubmarine said:
I agree with your first three points. Your fourth point that we have to accept May's deal because May has blocked all the exits save that one then set the building on fire ... provokes a visceral rage I've never felt in my political life. I won't be alone.Richard_Nabavi said:
A second referendum requires an extension to Article 50, and that requires the unanimous consent of the EU27. They would probably grant it if they thought there was a reasonably good chance of the referendum resolving things, although we can't be sure, and it's not unlikely that one or more of the countries would seek to use it as leverage (on Gibraltar or fish, for example, as has been suggested). And then there are all the issues about what the referendum options should be, and no guarantee that the referendum would produce the 'right' or indeed any clear result.YellowSubmarine said:The paradoxes of a second referendum remain. We won't get a second referendum unless Brexit collapses and if Brexit collapses a second referendum won't be an immediate priority. Brexit will only collapse under the pressure of the A50 deadline and political failure. But by the time we get to the A50 deadline to precipitate a second referendum there won't be time for a second referendum.
All in all, the whole thing is the biggest mess imaginable, and the only way out of the mess is the one which MPs seem very likely to reject.0 -
Yep, fair comment. I find myself agreeing with you regularly these days Felix! (I know how much that scares you!)felix said:
No it isn't - they lack an alternative plan. Ever since before the referendum I was one of many on here who asked Leave voters how they expected Brexit to happen and on what terms - the only answer ever given was that this was not thier task but the job of the government of the day. They never had a plan. That is the scandal. T. May has done the best job given the appalling mess she took on. Of course she bears some blame for this mess but there are plenty others sniping from the sidelines who are as responsible and have been from day one.grabcocque said:
They don't have any worse plans either. Maybe that is also the point.Richard_Nabavi said:
They don't have a better plan, that is exactly the point.FF43 said:The Withdrawal Agreement is essentially fixed, but the future arrangement that will take its place is wide open. The outcomes could include rejoining the EU or even not leaving in the first place. All of the options require EU consent so there's no reason to reflect a preferred path just because the EU hasn't agreed yet. Mrs May disengenuously pretends her outcome is the only one. Her many opponents should call her out on that if they think they have a better plan.
0 -
Jury service from a random group of chimpanzees?RoyalBlue said:
He really is. It’s embarrassing.CarlottaVance said:Good grief he's thick:
https://twitter.com/DavidLammy/status/1066973585963651072
The conduct of our politicians since 2016 makes me wonder if jury service for the Commons would give better results than election.
0 -
0
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Non-EU migration is now virtually entirely highly skilled. That is not the case with the cockle pickers and beggars from Romania and Bulgaria.williamglenn said:
Most of which was from outside the EU...Theo said:May has been remarkably good at maintaining the mandate of the referendum. She will finally put an end to two decades of mass migration.
As for free movement, when will it end? You can’t say because this deal doesn’t tell us what the future relationship will be.
Free movement will end at the end of the implementation period.0 -
I think that is about right.Theo said:May has been remarkably good at maintaining the mandate of the referendum. She will finally put an end to two decades of mass migration. The billions we sent to French farmers will now go on domestic priorities. Whether murderers can vote or laws preventing human trafficking will stand will now be decided here in this country. And we can still sign trade deals on services, which cover 80% of our economy. Meanwhile, there will be no disruption to Northern Ireland and we can maintain JIT supply chains.
It's a great deal and will make Brexit a success, address the most inflammatory issues in British politics (Brexit and immigration) and set us up for a great next decade. The alternative is a Momentum Government with Corbyn unquestioned status in the Labour Party. A far left anti-business anti-growth regime maximising the damage of a cliff edge Brexit. Plus open doors immigration on a scale unseen before, as Corbyn years down even the restraints we have on non-EU immigration. This won't lead to people craving common sense conservatism or moderate social democracy. It will set us on a cause for ever more polarization and extremism.
Given where we are, it is as I mentioned earlier, the best deal possible. As for those voting against bearing responsibility for any chaos, however, and here I mean the opposition, I will still reserve the right of the Labour Party to oppose anything the govt brings forward, as is their remit.0 -
Personally, I'd leave the meaningful vote to January. Hold their feet to the fire a bit longer.Tissue_Price said:
Depending on the scale of the defeat, you need one of: some cosmetic changes to the deal; some real changes to the deal; or the clock to tick down. The last of these looks most likely.grabcocque said:
Events will likely move very fast post-loss of the deal. But I can't imagine they'd move that fast.Tissue_Price said:
I would have thought that was the more likely timing as well.MikeL said:
I know - but 2nd vote surely likely to be in the New Year - to turn a No into a Yes within a few days would be a very tall order.Tissue_Price said:
Well, that market includes a second vote as well (provided it is in 2018).MikeL said:Everyone seems certain the vote is going to be lost by miles.
So how come you can back No at 1.35 on Betfair - and you can bet a substantial sum (over £2,000) right now at between 1.3 and 1.35.
Even if it were May's plan B and she stated in the immediate aftermath it was now her intention to seek a new referendum it wouldn't be enough.0 -
Not as much economic sense as oil does at $60 a barrel.OblitusSumMe said:This is an interesting story (though sadly with the standard journalistic inability to use the correct scientific units).
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2018/nov/26/arsenal-battery-power-emirates-stadium
Suggests that grid-scale batteries to smooth out the renewable supply are beginning to make economic sense.0 -
As you will appreciate from the thread header, I basically agree with this.Theo said:
Everyone voting against the deal bears full responsibility for the economic damage that follows. Parliament is full of charlatans and toads, playing their pathetic partisan games with the wellbeing of British lives.Pulpstar said:Oppostion to May has gone full horseshoe.
Who'd have thought a #FBPEer would be singing the praises of Anne Marie Norris ?!
https://twitter.com/petersturdgess/status/1066613882314244096
It's still a shit deal.0 -
The way you slip into unpleasantly blaming immigrants for all your own policy failures is straight out of May's very tarnished copybook.Theo said:
Non-EU migration is now virtually entirely highly skilled. That is not the case with the cockle pickers and beggars from Romania and Bulgaria.williamglenn said:
Most of which was from outside the EU...Theo said:May has been remarkably good at maintaining the mandate of the referendum. She will finally put an end to two decades of mass migration.
As for free movement, when will it end? You can’t say because this deal doesn’t tell us what the future relationship will be.
Free movement will end at the end of the implementation period.
There's no need for that kind of unpleasant racist abuse here.0 -
Games invented, nurtured and imposed on the country by the headbangers in the Tory Party aided and abetted by the supine arrogance of so called leadership.Theo said:
Everyone voting against the deal bears full responsibility for the economic damage that follows. Parliament is full of charlatans and toads, playing their pathetic partisan games with the wellbeing of British lives.Pulpstar said:Oppostion to May has gone full horseshoe.
Who'd have thought a #FBPEer would be singing the praises of Anne Marie Norris ?!
https://twitter.com/petersturdgess/status/10666138823142440960 -
Leave the Tory backbenches soaking all christmas in their fiercely anti-deal constituency parties?Sean_F said:
Personally, I'd leave the meaningful vote to January. Hold their feet to the fire a bit longer.Tissue_Price said:
Depending on the scale of the defeat, you need one of: some cosmetic changes to the deal; some real changes to the deal; or the clock to tick down. The last of these looks most likely.grabcocque said:
Events will likely move very fast post-loss of the deal. But I can't imagine they'd move that fast.Tissue_Price said:
I would have thought that was the more likely timing as well.MikeL said:
I know - but 2nd vote surely likely to be in the New Year - to turn a No into a Yes within a few days would be a very tall order.Tissue_Price said:
Well, that market includes a second vote as well (provided it is in 2018).MikeL said:Everyone seems certain the vote is going to be lost by miles.
So how come you can back No at 1.35 on Betfair - and you can bet a substantial sum (over £2,000) right now at between 1.3 and 1.35.
Even if it were May's plan B and she stated in the immediate aftermath it was now her intention to seek a new referendum it wouldn't be enough.
That oughta do it.0 -
I'm sure if we were a net recipient the EU wouldn't insist on us taking the money during the transition.felix said:
I believe a significant portion of the money is for our membership fees during the transition. To withold money legally due would seriously damage the country's already shaky international credibility for financial rectitude.Xenon said:
But both sides want an "orderly transition", the EU aren't conceding this as it is in their best interests too.Nigelb said:
The payment is mainly for the two years of orderly transition :Xenon said:
Perhaps explain what they are giving us in exchange for the money without using a metaphor.Richard_Nabavi said:
We are paying so that they gently remove the gun we've pointed at our heads.Xenon said:
If we're just going to WTO terms anyway, then what are we giving them £39bn for exactly? It was sold to the electorate as part of our leverage to get a decent trade deal.Richard_Nabavi said:
As always, though, you need to distinguish 'no deal' from the very different 'orderly transition to WTO terms'. Many people don't seem to understand the difference, and some of those who do (or should) often seem deliberately to conflate them.Sean_F said:
None of which refutes my argument that "lots of people favour No Deal.". It is quite possible that No Deal would win a referendum, starting from that base.
As I am starting to suspect that it's nothing.
https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/explainers/eu-divorce-bill
The deal in December did not contain an exact figure, though at the time, UK officials estimated a potential bill of £35–39 billion (bn).
The UK’s Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) set out detailed estimates of what the UK would pay in its Economic and Fiscal Outlook report, published alongside the Chancellor’s Spring Statement. That set out a total bill of €41.4bn (£37.1bn), extending out to 2064 as pension liabilities fall due.
But it also makes clear that around half consist of payments the UK will make during the transition phase. The OBR estimates net payments under the financial settlement of €18.5bn (£16.4bn) in 2019 and 2020, during the transition, followed by net payments of €7.6bn in 2021, €5.8bn (2022) €3.1bn (2023) and €1.7bn (2024) before falling away to €0.2bn in 2028. The liabilities, net of assets, that then remain to be paid amount to a total of €2.7bn over the period 2021–45....
So we're giving them £39bn in exchange for something they wanted anyway. It's a complete failure in negotiation.
Do we still get to vote on things during the process as we're still members?
0 -
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I don't come on here to read racist bilge. Do one you bigoted twat.Theo said:
Non-EU migration is now virtually entirely highly skilled. That is not the case with the cockle pickers and beggars from Romania and Bulgaria.williamglenn said:
Most of which was from outside the EU...Theo said:May has been remarkably good at maintaining the mandate of the referendum. She will finally put an end to two decades of mass migration.
As for free movement, when will it end? You can’t say because this deal doesn’t tell us what the future relationship will be.
Free movement will end at the end of the implementation period.0 -
No. Just because I have the basic level of knowledge of UK politics to be able to spell "Chequers" doesn't mean I am closely involved. I have been in the private sector for 15 years.grabcocque said:@Theo
Are you on the government payroll? I'd bet a bollock you were.0 -
Like Reek, they'll get there in the end.grabcocque said:
Leave the Tory backbenches soaking all christmas in their fiercely anti-deal constituency parties?Sean_F said:
Personally, I'd leave the meaningful vote to January. Hold their feet to the fire a bit longer.Tissue_Price said:
Depending on the scale of the defeat, you need one of: some cosmetic changes to the deal; some real changes to the deal; or the clock to tick down. The last of these looks most likely.grabcocque said:
Events will likely move very fast post-loss of the deal. But I can't imagine they'd move that fast.Tissue_Price said:
I would have thought that was the more likely timing as well.MikeL said:
I know - but 2nd vote surely likely to be in the New Year - to turn a No into a Yes within a few days would be a very tall order.Tissue_Price said:
Well, that market includes a second vote as well (provided it is in 2018).MikeL said:Everyone seems certain the vote is going to be lost by miles.
So how come you can back No at 1.35 on Betfair - and you can bet a substantial sum (over £2,000) right now at between 1.3 and 1.35.
Even if it were May's plan B and she stated in the immediate aftermath it was now her intention to seek a new referendum it wouldn't be enough.
That oughta do it.0 -
Last time I looked at the stats the EU immigrants were much more likely to be skilled than non-EU.Theo said:
Non-EU migration is now virtually entirely highly skilled. That is not the case with the cockle pickers and beggars from Romania and Bulgaria.williamglenn said:
Most of which was from outside the EU...Theo said:May has been remarkably good at maintaining the mandate of the referendum. She will finally put an end to two decades of mass migration.
As for free movement, when will it end? You can’t say because this deal doesn’t tell us what the future relationship will be.
Free movement will end at the end of the implementation period.0 -
0
-
The white population in Birmingham fell by 10% (66,000) between 2001 and 2011 while the Asian population grew by 90,000. There appears to be a similar trend in other boroughs mentioned as losing a high proportion of pubs in the article.YellowSubmarine said:The Guardian has some interesting figures on Pub closures. I link to it just because it's striking how often recent Labour campaign videos have featured rows of empty shops.Trumpian cultural conservativism about the decline of small towns is definitely part of their strategy to get to 326.
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2018/nov/26/uk-pub-closures-financial-crisis-birmingham-ons-figures0 -
The referendum was supported by a majority in parliament and an even bigger majority of the public. We now have a deal that supposedly couldn't be done, maintaining economic access while controlling immigration, saving billions in fees and making UK courts sovereign. Remainers hate this so they are trying to sabotage it from being implemented.anothernick said:
Games invented, nurtured and imposed on the country by the headbangers in the Tory Party aided and abetted by the supine arrogance of so called leadership.Theo said:
Everyone voting against the deal bears full responsibility for the economic damage that follows. Parliament is full of charlatans and toads, playing their pathetic partisan games with the wellbeing of British lives.Pulpstar said:Oppostion to May has gone full horseshoe.
Who'd have thought a #FBPEer would be singing the praises of Anne Marie Norris ?!
https://twitter.com/petersturdgess/status/10666138823142440960 -
The chances of Maggie on the £50 note are about the same as the WA getting through parliament at first time of asking.tlg86 said:Good to see Maggie on the (very) long list for the £50 note:
https://tinyurl.com/y9z4uz660 -
Because of immigrants coming in 1948-2010. Not the current intake.Xenon said:
Last time I looked at the stats the EU immigrants were much more likely to be skilled than non-EU.Theo said:
Non-EU migration is now virtually entirely highly skilled. That is not the case with the cockle pickers and beggars from Romania and Bulgaria.williamglenn said:
Most of which was from outside the EU...Theo said:May has been remarkably good at maintaining the mandate of the referendum. She will finally put an end to two decades of mass migration.
As for free movement, when will it end? You can’t say because this deal doesn’t tell us what the future relationship will be.
Free movement will end at the end of the implementation period.0 -
So if the deal is so good why are Tory MPs queuing up to rubbish it? Even some cabinet ministers have been strangely silent in the last couple of days.Theo said:
The referendum was supported by a majority in parliament and an even bigger majority of the public. We now have a deal that supposedly couldn't be done, maintaining economic access while controlling immigration, saving billions in fees and making UK courts sovereign. Remainers hate this so they are trying to sabotage it from being implemented.anothernick said:
Games invented, nurtured and imposed on the country by the headbangers in the Tory Party aided and abetted by the supine arrogance of so called leadership.Theo said:
Everyone voting against the deal bears full responsibility for the economic damage that follows. Parliament is full of charlatans and toads, playing their pathetic partisan games with the wellbeing of British lives.Pulpstar said:Oppostion to May has gone full horseshoe.
Who'd have thought a #FBPEer would be singing the praises of Anne Marie Norris ?!
https://twitter.com/petersturdgess/status/10666138823142440960 -
I see that the SDLP have said that they support Theresa May's deal. This is an example of how time could gradually bring more, albeit reluctant, support for the deal and reverse the current impression that it's failure is inevitable. It is, I think, why the ERG launched their failed coup, as a device to prevent momentum to build up in favour of the deal.
Unfortunately for the PM, the SDLP lost their three Westminster MPs in the 2017GE that she called and so this adds zero votes for the deal in the Commons.0 -
Accurately describing some of the occupations of EU migrants that aren't possible under non-EU migration or the future setup we will have under May's deal is not "racist". That is doubly so when I am favourably comparing the non-white immigrants to the white immigrants. You don't understand basic words, so go away and take a dictionary with you before coming back.Anazina said:
I don't come on here to read racist bilge. Do one you bigoted twat.Theo said:
Non-EU migration is now virtually entirely highly skilled. That is not the case with the cockle pickers and beggars from Romania and Bulgaria.williamglenn said:
Most of which was from outside the EU...Theo said:May has been remarkably good at maintaining the mandate of the referendum. She will finally put an end to two decades of mass migration.
As for free movement, when will it end? You can’t say because this deal doesn’t tell us what the future relationship will be.
Free movement will end at the end of the implementation period.0 -
It could also have something to do with how bad the pubs in Birmingham are, and by that I mean in the city centre. It really is embarrassing how poor the pubs are in the so-called Second City. Just utter rubbish from my experience.initforthemoney said:
The white population in Birmingham fell by 10% (66,000) between 2001 and 2011 while the Asian population grew by 90,000. There appears to be a similar trend in other boroughs mentioned as losing a high proportion of pubs in the article.YellowSubmarine said:The Guardian has some interesting figures on Pub closures. I link to it just because it's striking how often recent Labour campaign videos have featured rows of empty shops.Trumpian cultural conservativism about the decline of small towns is definitely part of their strategy to get to 326.
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2018/nov/26/uk-pub-closures-financial-crisis-birmingham-ons-figures0 -
Because they are doing their best to negotiate behind the scenes to bring people on board without ruffling feathers.anothernick said:
So if the deal is so good why are Tory MPs queuing up to rubbish it? Even some cabinet ministers have been strangely silent in the last couple of days.Theo said:
The referendum was supported by a majority in parliament and an even bigger majority of the public. We now have a deal that supposedly couldn't be done, maintaining economic access while controlling immigration, saving billions in fees and making UK courts sovereign. Remainers hate this so they are trying to sabotage it from being implemented.anothernick said:
Games invented, nurtured and imposed on the country by the headbangers in the Tory Party aided and abetted by the supine arrogance of so called leadership.Theo said:
Everyone voting against the deal bears full responsibility for the economic damage that follows. Parliament is full of charlatans and toads, playing their pathetic partisan games with the wellbeing of British lives.Pulpstar said:Oppostion to May has gone full horseshoe.
Who'd have thought a #FBPEer would be singing the praises of Anne Marie Norris ?!
https://twitter.com/petersturdgess/status/10666138823142440960 -
Plenty in parliament who want to show their magnificent anti/pro Brexit feathered credentials.anothernick said:
So if the deal is so good why are Tory MPs queuing up to rubbish it? Even some cabinet ministers have been strangely silent in the last couple of days.Theo said:
The referendum was supported by a majority in parliament and an even bigger majority of the public. We now have a deal that supposedly couldn't be done, maintaining economic access while controlling immigration, saving billions in fees and making UK courts sovereign. Remainers hate this so they are trying to sabotage it from being implemented.anothernick said:
Games invented, nurtured and imposed on the country by the headbangers in the Tory Party aided and abetted by the supine arrogance of so called leadership.Theo said:
Everyone voting against the deal bears full responsibility for the economic damage that follows. Parliament is full of charlatans and toads, playing their pathetic partisan games with the wellbeing of British lives.Pulpstar said:Oppostion to May has gone full horseshoe.
Who'd have thought a #FBPEer would be singing the praises of Anne Marie Norris ?!
https://twitter.com/petersturdgess/status/1066613882314244096
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qDvFdj-pFMc0 -
I am not blaming immigrants for anything. I am just pointing out that some immigrants are a net cost to the UK and a sensible immigration policy would restrict their intake. That is possible under May's deal, but not under Remaining nor a Corbyn government.grabcocque said:
The way you slip into unpleasantly blaming immigrants for all your own policy failures is straight out of May's very tarnished copybook.Theo said:
Non-EU migration is now virtually entirely highly skilled. That is not the case with the cockle pickers and beggars from Romania and Bulgaria.williamglenn said:
Most of which was from outside the EU...Theo said:May has been remarkably good at maintaining the mandate of the referendum. She will finally put an end to two decades of mass migration.
As for free movement, when will it end? You can’t say because this deal doesn’t tell us what the future relationship will be.
Free movement will end at the end of the implementation period.
There's no need for that kind of unpleasant racist abuse here.
As a tip, screaming "racism" to silence debate on immigration stopped working in about 2005.0 -
She won't, but if she was selected, I await the nutter elements of those that hate everything about Thatcher to take to burning the notes in protest.tlg86 said:Good to see Maggie on the (very) long list for the £50 note:
https://tinyurl.com/y9z4uz660 -
The whole process has been bedevilled by wishful thinking.
1. Brexiters who think you can have both frictionless trade with the EU and total freedom to diverge from EU regulations
2. Remainers who thought that Jeremy Corbyn was one of them.
3. Conservatives who thought they could pretend to support Brexit in the belief it would never happen, but would assist their leadership prospects
4. Remainers who thought they could vote for A50, but still stop Brexit.
5. Cabinet ministers who persuaded themselves that Theresa May didn't mean it when she asked for a transition period and agreed to a backstop. Perhaps they were asleep when these issues were discussed in Cabinet.
6. Anyone who thinks the EU is desperate to give us a superb deal, but for the traitor in 10 Downing Street.
0 -
The SDLP are very experienced in having to deal with loons, zealots and showboaters from two sides.OblitusSumMe said:I see that the SDLP have said that they support Theresa May's deal. This is an example of how time could gradually bring more, albeit reluctant, support for the deal and reverse the current impression that it's failure is inevitable. It is, I think, why the ERG launched their failed coup, as a device to prevent momentum to build up in favour of the deal.
Unfortunately for the PM, the SDLP lost their three Westminster MPs in the 2017GE that she called and so this adds zero votes for the deal in the Commons.0 -
7. Anyone who voted Leave in the referendum thinking it wouldn't be a total clusterfuck from start to finishSean_F said:The whole process has been bedevilled by wishful thinking.
1. Brexiters who think you can have both frictionless trade with the EU and total freedom to diverge from EU regulations
2. Remainers who thought that Jeremy Corbyn was one of them.
3. Conservatives who thought they could pretend to support Brexit in the belief it would never happen, but would assist their leadership prospects
4. Remainers who thought they could vote for A50, but still stop Brexit.
5. Cabinet ministers who persuaded themselves that Theresa May didn't mean it when she asked for a transition period and agreed to a backstop. Perhaps they were asleep when these issues were discussed in Cabinet.
6. Anyone who thinks the EU is desperate to give us a superb deal, but for the traitor in 10 Downing Street.0 -
On 4) Ken Clarke emerges with credit - voted against Article 50, but recognising the Will of the House will now vote for the Deal as the least worst option available.Sean_F said:The whole process has been bedevilled by wishful thinking.
1. Brexiters who think you can have both frictionless trade with the EU and total freedom to diverge from EU regulations
2. Remainers who thought that Jeremy Corbyn was one of them.
3. Conservatives who thought they could pretend to support Brexit in the belief it would never happen, but would assist their leadership prospects
4. Remainers who thought they could vote for A50, but still stop Brexit.
5. Cabinet ministers who persuaded themselves that Theresa May didn't mean it when she asked for a transition period and agreed to a backstop. Perhaps they were asleep when these issues were discussed in Cabinet.
6. Anyone who thinks the EU is desperate to give us a superb deal, but for the traitor in 10 Downing Street.0 -
Or perhaps making sure the knighthood is in the bag before they come out against the deal anyway....Theo said:
Because they are doing their best to negotiate behind the scenes to bring people on board without ruffling feathers.anothernick said:
So if the deal is so good why are Tory MPs queuing up to rubbish it? Even some cabinet ministers have been strangely silent in the last couple of days.Theo said:
The referendum was supported by a majority in parliament and an even bigger majority of the public. We now have a deal that supposedly couldn't be done, maintaining economic access while controlling immigration, saving billions in fees and making UK courts sovereign. Remainers hate this so they are trying to sabotage it from being implemented.anothernick said:
Games invented, nurtured and imposed on the country by the headbangers in the Tory Party aided and abetted by the supine arrogance of so called leadership.Theo said:
Everyone voting against the deal bears full responsibility for the economic damage that follows. Parliament is full of charlatans and toads, playing their pathetic partisan games with the wellbeing of British lives.Pulpstar said:Oppostion to May has gone full horseshoe.
Who'd have thought a #FBPEer would be singing the praises of Anne Marie Norris ?!
https://twitter.com/petersturdgess/status/10666138823142440960 -
City centre - yes, with some notable exceptionsAnazina said:
It could also have something to do with how bad the pubs in Birmingham are, and by that I mean in the city centre. It really is embarrassing how poor the pubs are in the so-called Second City. Just utter rubbish from my experience.initforthemoney said:
The white population in Birmingham fell by 10% (66,000) between 2001 and 2011 while the Asian population grew by 90,000. There appears to be a similar trend in other boroughs mentioned as losing a high proportion of pubs in the article.YellowSubmarine said:The Guardian has some interesting figures on Pub closures. I link to it just because it's striking how often recent Labour campaign videos have featured rows of empty shops.Trumpian cultural conservativism about the decline of small towns is definitely part of their strategy to get to 326.
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2018/nov/26/uk-pub-closures-financial-crisis-birmingham-ons-figures
In the Jewellery Quarter, we have a good dozen pubs that are pretty good (Wolf, Hen and Chickens, Church, Lord Clifden, 1000 Trades, Rock'n'Roll Brewhouse, Rose Villa Tavern, Red Lion, Pig and Tail, bar in the JQ museum, Burning Soul and Jewelers Arms) and another handful I don't go in (Brown Lion, A&R bar, The Button Factory).
Throw in the many restaurants and I suggest you need to try other places within Birmingham.0 -
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Yes. Also very experienced in the gratitude of the electorate for making compromises.Theo said:
The SDLP are very experienced in having to deal with loons, zealots and showboaters from two sides.OblitusSumMe said:I see that the SDLP have said that they support Theresa May's deal. This is an example of how time could gradually bring more, albeit reluctant, support for the deal and reverse the current impression that it's failure is inevitable. It is, I think, why the ERG launched their failed coup, as a device to prevent momentum to build up in favour of the deal.
Unfortunately for the PM, the SDLP lost their three Westminster MPs in the 2017GE that she called and so this adds zero votes for the deal in the Commons.0 -
Yes, and he was one of the very few MPs who didn't vote for the referendum either. He has been consistent and principled throughout.CarlottaVance said:
On 4) Ken Clarke emerges with credit - voted against Article 50, but recognising the Will of the House will now vote for the Deal as the least worst option available.Sean_F said:The whole process has been bedevilled by wishful thinking.
1. Brexiters who think you can have both frictionless trade with the EU and total freedom to diverge from EU regulations
2. Remainers who thought that Jeremy Corbyn was one of them.
3. Conservatives who thought they could pretend to support Brexit in the belief it would never happen, but would assist their leadership prospects
4. Remainers who thought they could vote for A50, but still stop Brexit.
5. Cabinet ministers who persuaded themselves that Theresa May didn't mean it when she asked for a transition period and agreed to a backstop. Perhaps they were asleep when these issues were discussed in Cabinet.
6. Anyone who thinks the EU is desperate to give us a superb deal, but for the traitor in 10 Downing Street.0 -
That has nothing to do with recognising the will of the people. He just wants to vote against the risk of chaos.CarlottaVance said:
On 4) Ken Clarke emerges with credit - voted against Article 50, but recognising the Will of the House will now vote for the Deal as the least worst option available.Sean_F said:The whole process has been bedevilled by wishful thinking.
1. Brexiters who think you can have both frictionless trade with the EU and total freedom to diverge from EU regulations
2. Remainers who thought that Jeremy Corbyn was one of them.
3. Conservatives who thought they could pretend to support Brexit in the belief it would never happen, but would assist their leadership prospects
4. Remainers who thought they could vote for A50, but still stop Brexit.
5. Cabinet ministers who persuaded themselves that Theresa May didn't mean it when she asked for a transition period and agreed to a backstop. Perhaps they were asleep when these issues were discussed in Cabinet.
6. Anyone who thinks the EU is desperate to give us a superb deal, but for the traitor in 10 Downing Street.0 -
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Three other thoughts wrt Pub Closures in Brum
1. In the JQ, last 5 years, there's a net number of pubs opened.
2. "Although the number of pubs has dramatically fallen, the amount spent in those that are left has remained steady since the previous recession – after taking inflation into account – suggesting the remaining pubs and bars have soaked up the custom from those that have closed."
This makes some sense.
3. Similar arguments could be made for Moseley, Digbeth and Harbourne.0
