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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Tuesday the final midterms showdown – the Mississippi senatori

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  • I think perhaps William Glenn and Southam Observer are right about May and I've just been naive and too traumatised by the referendum. Perhaps it should have been obvious how far May would go and much damage she would inflict to secure her place in the bottom quartile of PMs rather than the bottom decile.

    And no ! I'm not Nicola Sturgeon.
  • HYUFD said:

    Blair says he will accept a vote for a No Deal Brexit if it wins a final referendum v Remain

    That is good of him
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,833
    Blair says 'he has a lot of respect for May as a person and her resilience and she is decent'.

    However the Deal is the wrong decision for the country
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,851
    edited November 2018
    .
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,393
    malcolmg said:

    Bare faced lie.
    Take it up with Fabian Picardo!
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,833
    malcolmg said:

    Amazing thing for me is how could it have taken an army of people 2 years for this garbage, it just gives everything to EU, we do as we are told and takes 600 pages to say so, unbelievable political gobbledygook.
    There was no better deal available from the EU, so otherwise it is No Deal or Remain or permanent single market and customs union

  • No reply yet.......how curious.......The Brexiteers and Remoaners are cut from the same cloth - repeat a lie often enough and it will be believed. Take the whole Gibraltar "capitulation":

    https://twitter.com/FabianPicardo/status/1066450063646429185

    The capitulation narrative is ridiculous. Sanchez did what he did for domestic, electoral consumption - and he got exactly what he wanted. The significance of the whole thing is that it is a foretaste of what is to come. Now the WA has been signed off and we head to the FTA talks it’s every country for itself. The easy bit has been done!

  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,281
    edited November 2018
    malcolmg said:

    Bare faced lie.
    Oh who to believe?

    The Chief Minister of Gibraltar or an Ayrshire turnip muncher?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,393
    Roger said:

    I couldn't agree with you less. He's making me feel that things are so ludicrous a campaign of civil disobedience is likely
    That would only make things worse, and strengthen the hand of both dealers and no dealers.

    Remain is getting ever closer, it may well even be the most likely outcome in the coming weeks, but talk of civil disobedience fans the flames the wrong way. And don't forget who to think for us remaining - the Brexit ultras themselves, as it is they who will march through the division lobbies to back options which allow it.
  • BromptonautBromptonaut Posts: 1,113
    edited November 2018

    Yep, it’s pretty sickening. But there is no better alternative for the Tories.

    So what? Party before country. Sickening indeed.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,393

    The capitulation narrative is ridiculous. Sanchez did what he did for domestic, electoral consumption - and he got exactly what he wanted. The significance of the whole thing is that it is a foretaste of what is to come. Now the WA has been signed off and we head to the FTA talks it’s every country for itself. The easy bit has been done!

    And we'll be ending things at the easy bit. With so many opposed the principle of Brexit, and so many more opposed to picking a direction on Brexit (no, new dealers, the Tory party and Labour party, and country would not suddenly unite around your perfect deal either), there's simply not enough will to keep this up. Roger and willian will get their dearest wish.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,833
    edited November 2018
    Labour's Shadow Justice Secretary says Labour will oppose the Norway option on Marr as Norway is not in the Customs Union which Labour backs, so the Norway option is also dead it seems given the ERG opposes that too
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,696

    I think perhaps William Glenn and Southam Observer are right about May and I've just been naive and too traumatised by the referendum. Perhaps it should have been obvious how far May would go and much damage she would inflict to secure her place in the bottom quartile of PMs rather than the bottom decile.

    And no ! I'm not Nicola Sturgeon.

    Bear in mind that I think her end game is Remain.
  • YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382

    Nicola has moved to Norway from a second referendum in a demonstration of pragmatic politics. She probably has identified a majority position in the HOC.

    Blair on Marr just turning the nation against a second referendum</blockquote

    Totally disagree, whatever you think about Tony Blair he makes you think about the subject.

    He can change minds.
    Unlike May who is a terrible politician at speaking to the general public.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,263

    I can't find any out and out lies either. Nor any convincing reasons to back her deal. And definitely no new information. A bit of a waste of time, basically.
    Yes - I agree with that. It's a bit meh but not the outrageous patchwork of lies some on here are claiming.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,386

    I think perhaps William Glenn and Southam Observer are right about May and I've just been naive and too traumatised by the referendum. Perhaps it should have been obvious how far May would go and much damage she would inflict to secure her place in the bottom quartile of PMs rather than the bottom decile.

    And no ! I'm not Nicola Sturgeon.

    I'm sure she can revamp her career on Strictly Come Dancing
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,833
    edited November 2018
    Labour will only back a Deal with a permanent Customs Union and protection for workers' rights says Labour's Shadow Justice Secretary.

    Refuses to support EUref2 either but still says Labour is 'totally opposed to No Deal' and will try and use amendments and motions to stop it and to reassert parliamentary sovereignty
  • Polruan said:

    So, taking into account the letter and other information we have seen this morning:

    We will have full control over our waters (which we will use to agree reciprocal access, like under the existing arrangements)
    There will be no hard border in Ireland and we won’t be under any kind of European court jurisdiction (but only once we’ve found a way to not have a hard border without adopting any rules which are interpreted by European courts, which we’ve made no progress on during 2 years)

    The apostrophe in “taxpayer’s” is probably the most offensive part though.

    Freedom of movement will end. It will be replaced by movement that is free.
    We are leaving the Common Fisheries Policy - we will become part of a fisheries policy that is common.
    We are leaving the Common Agricultural Policy - we will become a part of an agricultural policy that is common.

  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,263
    kle4 said:

    I will, but until I do I was interested what lies people saw there and mentioned the only general comment about it's contents that had so far been mentioned. I didn't say that comment was right.
    Er yes, sorry @kle4 - I was rather guilty of over-reacting myself there. (If I could find the red-faced emoji...)
  • ‪Richard Burgon - “The age of the experts is over.”‬
    ‪A reminder that it is not only Buccaneering Tory Brexiteers who are moronic simpletons.‬
  • XenonXenon Posts: 471

    Freedom of movement will end. It will be replaced by movement that is free.
    We are leaving the Common Fisheries Policy - we will become part of a fisheries policy that is common.
    We are leaving the Common Agricultural Policy - we will become a part of an agricultural policy that is common.

    I know you're joking, but the deal does actually mean we're leaving the CAP right?
  • Bear in mind that I think her end game is Remain.
    I think it always has been. Which is why the blame for this mess lies with the Remainers running the show not Brexit itself.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,263
    edited November 2018

    Freedom of movement will end. It will be replaced by movement that is free.
    We are leaving the Common Fisheries Policy - we will become part of a fisheries policy that is common.
    We are leaving the Common Agricultural Policy - we will become a part of an agricultural policy that is common.

    WTF?? Where's your evidence that we will become, for example, part of "an agricultural policy that is common"?
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,281
    edited November 2018
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 14,273
    malcolmg said:

    Just read her letter and it is indeed a load of bollox, political hogwash and usual "I am doing it all for the people" lies.

    Of all the letter's many offensive aspects the notion that we all have to pull together and self-immolate to keep the tory party in one piece is the worst.
  • Xenon said:

    I know you're joking, but the deal does actually mean we're leaving the CAP right?

    The deal says nothing about ending the CAP, FoM and CFP. The accompanying declaration says that the UK will end/leave them, but does not say what will they be replaced with. That will depend on the FTA.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,851


    No reply yet.......how curious.......The Brexiteers and Remoaners are cut from the same cloth - repeat a lie often enough and it will be believed. Take the whole Gibraltar "capitulation":

    https://twitter.com/FabianPicardo/status/1066450063646429185
    The truth*, but not the whole truth, I think.

    * With the possible exception of "I will always stand up for Gibraltar." which is something of a throwaway remark.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,418

    I think it always has been. Which is why the blame for this mess lies with the Remainers running the show not Brexit itself.
    I'm coming round to the view that we sign the May deal - but then proceed to go all French on it: ignore the bits that don't suit us. Of course, that means May has to go pronto. And any other Cabinet member that wants to stick slavishly to the text. And we will need a PM with the balls to deliver.

    We will still negotiate hard on the Trade Agreement, but as a third party independent of the EU . And we will undertake that trade deal in tandem with others - South Korea for instance wants an accelerated deal.

    And we inform them - and the DUP - that we will not honour the back-stop arrangment. So they better get a wiggle on, agreeing that technical solution to the border....

    No manager replacing one who has had his team relegated would continue with his failed 5-4-1 system. So no incoming PM should have to live with this - May's Remain ransom note.
  • If ERG had any sense they should bank this and then fight the EU during the transistion on the backstop including a legal challenge.
  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900
    edited November 2018
    HYUFD said:

    Labour's Shadow Justice Secretary says Labour will oppose the Norway option on Marr as Norway is not in the Customs Union which Labour backs, so the Norway option is also dead it seems given the ERG opposes that too

    Too many impractical absolutists floating around. They think they can negotiate 3 or 4 years worth in 2 months? And with the EU saying "no more negotiation"?
  • If ERG had any sense they should bank this and then fight the EU during the transistion on the backstop including a legal challenge.
    Well quite. But the ERG's problem is not in Brussels, Belgium, its in the "Brussels" in their head....
  • PolruanPolruan Posts: 2,083

    WTF?? Where's your evidence that we will become, for example, part of "an agricultural policy that is common"?
    The commitments on free trade area with level playing field etc suggest that there will be a pretty strong level of integration (unless we don’t want the free trade area May promises). The point really is that she lists as failures various European cooperations and then implies that the future cooperations we will enter into in order to get free trade will somehow be free of the same problems. In the absence of specific and detailed agreements on how these new cooperations will work that seems rather optimistic, almost to the point that one might consider than an intelligent person could only assert it by lying.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,393
    Andrew said:

    Too many impractical absolutists floating around. They think they can negotiate 3 or 4 years worth in 2 months? And with the EU saying "no more negotiation"?
    Yes. The EU are liars, who will also give us whatever we want when they do reopen negotiation. Sensible.

    No deal makes more sense.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,833
    edited November 2018
    Hunt says if the Deal is voted down a 'catastrophic No Deal' would be the result with a 'huge degree of uncertainty' short of Parliamentary amendments etc. Would need though the Commons to bring down the Tory government to ensure No Deal could be stopped. He refuses to rule out the government collapsing if the Deal does not get through.

    Says the Deal is the staging post for a better Deal
  • Andrew said:

    Too many impractical absolutists floating around. They think they can negotiate 3 or 4 years worth in 2 months? And with the EU saying "no more negotiation"?

    https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1066613601497243648


  • The deal says nothing about ending the CAP, FoM and CFP. The accompanying declaration says that the UK will end/leave them, but does not say what will they be replaced with. That will depend on the FTA.

    Sorry SO but this is either wishful thinking or wilful misdirection on your part. We leave the CAP, FoM and CFP at the end of the transition period. You might speculate on what will replace them but that is entirely a matter for negotiation from scratch. There is no pre set or pre defined rule about how we have to proceed on those matters as you should know. If, by the time we reach the negotiation stage, we have a new PM, then it will be their views which define what our stance is. If it is Ken Clark then it will be as identical as possible to what we have now. If it is JRM it will not. And every range imbetween.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,833
    Andrew said:

    Too many impractical absolutists floating around. They think they can negotiate 3 or 4 years worth in 2 months? And with the EU saying "no more negotiation"?
    Labour thinks as it is caving in more by agreeing a permanent customs union and accepting more employment regulations from the EU it can it seems
  • Any more polls out on the Deal since the last thread header discussing them?

    I think May thinks she can win the public round and beat MPs in submission with it (or at least ensure the reverse isn't true).
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,851
    edited November 2018

    I think it always has been. Which is why the blame for this mess lies with the Remainers running the show not Brexit itself.
    Leavers had some excellent plan for Brexit that was thwarted by Theresa May?

    Was that because they somehow forgot to articulate their excellent plan or because, wilting violets, they thought Theresa May knew best and they shouldn't get involved?
  • Sorry SO but this is either wishful thinking or wilful misdirection on your part. We leave the CAP, FoM and CFP at the end of the transition period. You might speculate on what will replace them but that is entirely a matter for negotiation from scratch. There is no pre set or pre defined rule about how we have to proceed on those matters as you should know. If, by the time we reach the negotiation stage, we have a new PM, then it will be their views which define what our stance is. If it is Ken Clark then it will be as identical as possible to what we have now. If it is JRM it will not. And every range imbetween.

    It’s true I am assuming a deal will be done that is designed to minimise the economic harm the UK suffers. I do concede that is not a given.

  • The deal says nothing about ending the CAP, FoM and CFP. The accompanying declaration says that the UK will end/leave them, but does not say what will they be replaced with. That will depend on the FTA.
    For example see how Compassion in World Farming this weekend are pointing out the Backstop ( not even the FTA ) will stop the UK banning live exports. Banning live exports was a key Leave niche online and leaflet campaign used to target green Lexiters and single issue voters. Spokesperson points out while CWF has no policy on Brexit many members voted for Brexit in the back of the Live Export promise and are contacting them to say they feel betrayed.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,833
    edited November 2018
    Jeremy Hunt refuses to rule out a second and subsequent votes on the Withdrawal Agreement if it fails on the first vote as he finishes his interview on Marr
  • HYUFD said:

    Labour thinks as it is caving in more by agreeing a permanent customs union and accepting more employment regulations from the EU it can it seems
    Labour and half the Cabinet, judging from this morning's headlines about Plan B.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,025
    FF43 said:

    The truth*, but not the whole truth, I think.

    * With the possible exception of "I will always stand up for Gibraltar." which is something of a throwaway remark.
    She has signed it away , using weaselly politician's words to pretend otherwise does not cut it. Dressed up but bare faced lies just the same.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,393
    malcolmg said:

    She has signed it away , using weaselly politician's words to pretend otherwise does not cut it. Dressed up but bare faced lies just the same.
    Gibraltar say otherwise.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,393
    HYUFD said:

    Jeremy Hunt refuses to rule out a second and subsequent votes on the Withdrawal Agreement if it fails on the first vote as he finishes his interview on Marr

    Well at least we are at the point where it can be admitted the first vote is going to fail, even if hypothetically.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,655

    All I have to say about Brexit today is this. I don't call for prime ministerial resignations lightly but Theresa May needs to resign and resign immediately. Her ' letter to the nation ' is an abomination and several orders of magnitude worse than Blair's Dodgy Dossier. She flings lie after lie after lie about in just two sides of A4. Demonstrable and total lies. Even one from a PM would have been unthinkable even three years ago yet the abandon with she uses them in that letter lays the foundation for a political crisis starting next April far worse than anything we've experienced so far.

    Even the Red Bus only had one lie in it. Even Blair's Dodgy Dossier was predicated on the concept of truth which is why he went to the lengths he did to create evidence to prove claims. May's casual assault on the concept of objective truth in that letter is now full Trumpian. The parliamentary system makes her much easier to remove than a US president. Whether it's now the '22 route, cabinet revolt, the House itself or the deep state she needs to go and go immediately. She's clearly crossed an internal psychological barrier and with the power she holds such unhinged people are very dangerous.

    Someone somewhere needs to do their duty.

    Calling for somebody to be assasinated on PB is really unacceptable. I can only imagine this has not been challenged because the relevant people haven't been online.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,898
    Have a feeling this won't end well. Am, by nature an optimist. However, the choice now is No Deal or Remain. The ERG have given cover to every remainer in Parliament to stick together for their end goal, in pursuit of their own catastrophic fantasy ambitions.
    And, of course, given absolutely no incentive to any opposition MP, such as Nandy, who might be persuadable. Why defy the Party for a Deal which the Tories can't even unite around?
    Whichever outcome prevails, it won't be a happy one. And the last thing the country will do is "move on".
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,393
    edited November 2018


    https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1066613601497243648
    Ah, but you see, when May was pressing for things and the EU leaders said no, that was a sign she was being unrealistic and attempting to bully the EU by just saying the same thing over and over. When PM Corbyn/Raab do it, the EU will cave because...because...because the EU want a deal too.

    Flippancy aside, it is quite noticeable that even now momentum against the deal is increasing, not decreasing, with one of the few slightly open voices like Nandy coming clearly out against it. It could be one of the biggest government defeats in a long long time.

    No matter how much the EU might say no more change, no one believes it. MPs are in too deep to change course now, second vote or not - if they don't believe the EU now, why would they believe them in 2 weeks?
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,263

    The deal says nothing about ending the CAP, FoM and CFP. The accompanying declaration says that the UK will end/leave them, but does not say what will they be replaced with. That will depend on the FTA.
    That is just plain wrong. E.g. re FoM, this from the EU Law Analysis site:

    "Key question: Does the withdrawal agreement end free movement of people?

    Yes, free movement ends at the end of the transition period, unless the UK and EU decide to sign a separate treaty as part of the future relationship extending free movement in the future. Currently the UK government opposes this idea. The ‘backstop’ relating to Northern Ireland, if it ends up applying, does not include free movement of people, but only the continuation of the UK/Ireland common travel area, which is more limited."


    http://eulawanalysis.blogspot.com/2018/11/the-brexit-withdrawal-agreement.html
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,898

    For example see how Compassion in World Farming this weekend are pointing out the Backstop ( not even the FTA ) will stop the UK banning live exports. Banning live exports was a key Leave niche online and leaflet campaign used to target green Lexiters and single issue voters. Spokesperson points out while CWF has no policy on Brexit many members voted for Brexit in the back of the Live Export promise and are contacting them to say they feel betrayed.
    Green Leavers= grievers?
  • DadgeDadge Posts: 2,052
    dixiedean said:

    Have a feeling this won't end well. Am, by nature an optimist. However, the choice now is No Deal or Remain. The ERG have given cover to every remainer in Parliament to stick together for their end goal, in pursuit of their own catastrophic fantasy ambitions.
    And, of course, given absolutely no incentive to any opposition MP, such as Nandy, who might be persuadable. Why defy the Party for a Deal which the Tories can't even unite around?
    Whichever outcome prevails, it won't be a happy one. And the last thing the country will do is "move on".

    Since neither No Deal or Remain is an option, what will happen is either May will win through, or come 29th March some other temporary arrangement will be put in place.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,180
    kle4 said:

    I will, but until I do I was interested what lies people saw there and mentioned the only general comment about it's contents that had so far been mentioned. I didn't say that comment was right.
    For too many - their opinion is truth and everyone else's are lies. The country is truly stuffed right now. Thankfully I look out on a blue sky and 24 degrees at home this afternoon. It all helps.
  • I'm coming round to the view that we sign the May deal - but then proceed to go all French on it: ignore the bits that don't suit us. Of course, that means May has to go pronto. And any other Cabinet member that wants to stick slavishly to the text. And we will need a PM with the balls to deliver.

    We will still negotiate hard on the Trade Agreement, but as a third party independent of the EU . And we will undertake that trade deal in tandem with others - South Korea for instance wants an accelerated deal.

    And we inform them - and the DUP - that we will not honour the back-stop arrangment. So they better get a wiggle on, agreeing that technical solution to the border....

    No manager replacing one who has had his team relegated would continue with his failed 5-4-1 system. So no incoming PM should have to live with this - May's Remain ransom note.
    I cannot see why ERG do not see this option. I believe TM will go post march and her successor elected in a contest. I would just point out it may not be male as inferred in your post
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,025
    kle4 said:

    Gibraltar say otherwise.
    What do you expect , they can argue all they want , it is only a matter of time now, and does anyone in UK really care about a tax fiddling gambling haven.
  • EU press conference live now
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,386
    Well at least the pompous clown Digby Jones has been shown to be wrong

    '....I've got years of negotiating experience...I know how these things work. She'll make changes and they'll accept them because the car dealers in Munich need us. They say they wont but they're just posturing. We're the 5th largest economy in the world. We have clout.'

    November 23rd 2018 radio 4
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,898
    Dadge said:

    Since neither No Deal or Remain is an option, what will happen is either May will win through, or come 29th March some other temporary arrangement will be put in place.
    You are clearly more of an optimist than me.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,418

    I cannot see why ERG do not see this option. I believe TM will go post march and her successor elected in a contest. I would just point out it may not be male as inferred in your post
    Having "balls" should not be used to imply any sexual preference on my part for her successor. Just that the shouldn't be a big girl's blouse.....

  • Calling for somebody to be assasinated on PB is really unacceptable. I can only imagine this has not been challenged because the relevant people haven't been online.
    I missed it and condemn it totally. Unacceptable
  • On topic, the US polling seems to be working pretty well right now (apart from rasmussen lol), so if the polling says it's not close, I'd say it's not close.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,025
    felix said:

    For too many - their opinion is truth and everyone else's are lies. The country is truly stuffed right now. Thankfully I look out on a blue sky and 24 degrees at home this afternoon. It all helps.
    I have the blue sky in God's country but not the 24C
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,180

    The capitulation narrative is ridiculous. Sanchez did what he did for domestic, electoral consumption - and he got exactly what he wanted. The significance of the whole thing is that it is a foretaste of what is to come. Now the WA has been signed off and we head to the FTA talks it’s every country for itself. The easy bit has been done!

    Ironically Sanchez is being criticised in Spain today for achieving nothing. PSOE will be the largest party in the Andalucian election next month with fewer seats and votes than last time and no overall majority. All very silly.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,418
    Dadge said:

    Since neither No Deal or Remain is an option, what will happen is either May will win through, or come 29th March some other temporary arrangement will be put in place.
    There is no incentive for the EU to agree any such temporary arrangment (other than as practical mitigation of no deal in exchange for cash).

    There is no incentive at all for the EU to extend Article 50. Even if they could get Macron to agree.
  • Calling for somebody to be assasinated on PB is really unacceptable. I can only imagine this has not been challenged because the relevant people haven't been online.
    I can only suspect you have misunderstood YS's reference to '22. He means the 1922 committee, not what you think he means.
  • stjohnstjohn Posts: 1,897

    Sophy Ridge to IDS. Your colleague Dominic Raab says remaining is better than this, do you agree

    Answer was no.

    Expect lots of brexiteers getting the same question

    Dominic Raab "hadn't quite understood" Brexit means leaving the EU.
  • DadgeDadge Posts: 2,052

    I think it always has been.
    You're both deluded.
  • That is just plain wrong. E.g. re FoM, this from the EU Law Analysis site:

    "Key question: Does the withdrawal agreement end free movement of people?

    Yes, free movement ends at the end of the transition period, unless the UK and EU decide to sign a separate treaty as part of the future relationship extending free movement in the future. Currently the UK government opposes this idea. The ‘backstop’ relating to Northern Ireland, if it ends up applying, does not include free movement of people, but only the continuation of the UK/Ireland common travel area, which is more limited."


    http://eulawanalysis.blogspot.com/2018/11/the-brexit-withdrawal-agreement.html

    Yes, that’s a fair point. If we do not agree an FTA with the EU FoM will just end. My assumption - and this could be wrong - is that we’ll do an FTA which minimises the economic harm caused by leaving the SM and CU.

  • FF43 said:

    Leavers had some excellent plan for Brexit that was thwarted by Theresa May?

    Was that because they somehow forgot to articulate their excellent plan or because, wilting violets, they thought Theresa May knew best and they shouldn't get involved?
    In case you missed it, and I can understand you have problems processing more than one thought at a time, there have been alternative plans flying around since long before the referendum. Indeed that is one of the complaints that many Reminers - including yourself - have made in the past; that Leave represented too many different possible desired outcomes. But once you put a Remainer in charge who has no basic understanding of what drove the Leave vote and who fundamentally disagrees with it anyway, the result was always going to be sub-optimal.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,180
    malcolmg said:

    What do you expect , they can argue all they want , it is only a matter of time now, and does anyone in UK really care about a tax fiddling gambling haven.
    Britain probably doesn't but it is in Spain's interest to keep it going. 12000 Spaniards got to wrok there every day in an area where unemployment levels approach 40%+ already. Ask the Mayor of La Linea.
  • Junckers to HOC.

    This is the best deal possible for UK and the EU and only deal possible
  • It’s true I am assuming a deal will be done that is designed to minimise the economic harm the UK suffers. I do concede that is not a given.

    What you ned to concede is that you were wrong to claim that we are not leaving the CAP, FoM and CFP. That was simply untrue.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,025

    I can only suspect you have misunderstood YS's reference to '22. He means the 1922 committee, not what you think he means.
    Was he not meaning the "deep state" reference............
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,180

    I missed it and condemn it totally. Unacceptable
    YS comment is bordering on batshit crazy but he does not suggest assassination of the PM. People really need to calm down.
  • felix said:

    Ironically Sanchez is being criticised in Spain today for achieving nothing. PSOE will be the largest party in the Andalucian election next month with fewer seats and votes than last time and no overall majority. All very silly.

    PSOE is in danger of getting its worst-ever result in Andalucia. The headlines I’ve seen in the Spanish papers this morning have been largely positive for Sanchez, though as you’d expect he has been attacked by PP and Cs. If PSOE gets over 30% next Sunday it’ll be job done.

  • felixfelix Posts: 15,180
    malcolmg said:

    I have the blue sky in God's country but not the 24C
    :(
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,025

    Junckers to HOC.

    This is the best deal possible for UK and the EU and only deal possible

    Easy to say when you have won an outright victory, bit harder for May to sell.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,196
    felix said:

    YS comment is bordering on batshit crazy but he does not suggest assassination of the PM. People really need to calm down.
    He's not calling fo r an assassination, he's calling for someone like Phil Hammond to resign then ask her to stand down.
  • malcolmg said:

    Easy to say when you have won an outright victory, bit harder for May to sell.
    The EU are uncompromising this morning. This is the deal
  • I missed it and condemn it totally. Unacceptable
    It didn't happen. I can only assume Luckyguy misunderstood a reference to the 1922 committee.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,025
    felix said:

    Britain probably doesn't but it is in Spain's interest to keep it going. 12000 Spaniards got to wrok there every day in an area where unemployment levels approach 40%+ already. Ask the Mayor of La Linea.
    Britain could at least then ban overseas betting sites rather than the toffs making money out of the misery they cause.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,655



    I can only suspect you have misunderstood YS's reference to '22. He means the 1922 committee, not what you think he means.

    No, he refers to the 1922 committee seperately. The deep state reference and it's following passage are what I am referring to.
  • Dadge said:

    You're both deluded.
    And yet here we are. With that as a very real possibility.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,655

    It didn't happen. I can only assume Luckyguy misunderstood a reference to the 1922 committee.
    Please see my response.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,196
    felix said:

    Ironically Sanchez is being criticised in Spain today for achieving nothing. PSOE will be the largest party in the Andalucian election next month with fewer seats and votes than last time and no overall majority. All very silly.
    Looks like Sanchez position is unravelling faster than a Gordon Brown budget
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,655
    Pulpstar said:

    He's not calling fo r an assassination, he's calling for someone like Phil Hammond to resign then ask her to stand down.
    I am no fan of the man, but nobody has accused Phillip Hammond of being the deep state.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,180

    PSOE is in danger of getting its worst-ever result in Andalucia. The headlines I’ve seen in the Spanish papers this morning have been largely positive for Sanchez, though as you’d expect he has been attacked by PP and Cs. If PSOE gets over 30% next Sunday it’ll be job done.

    All the polls have suggested 32-35% so that is clearly wrong.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Andalusian_regional_election,_2018

    PP will be well down but there vote has simply gone to Ciudadanos with PSOE's going to Podemos. Very much a no change election and utterly pointless to bring it forward unless things change dramatically. As it is posturing on Gibraltar is not much of a vote-winner in the Cadiz province itself.
  • No, he refers to the 1922 committee seperately. The deep state reference and it's following passage are what I am referring to.
    In that case you really have gone off the deep end.
  • What you ned to concede is that you were wrong to claim that we are not leaving the CAP, FoM and CFP. That was simply untrue.

    I did not say that, though.

  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,025

    The EU are uncompromising this morning. This is the deal
    G, madness if anyone in UK accepts this travesty of a deal. The Tories are sunk and will be out of power for a long time come the next election.
  • Junckers to HOC.

    This is the best deal possible for UK and the EU and only deal possible

    And the HoC for two opposing reasons will not agree the deal as it leaves us worse off than we are now. "Then we'll crash out with no deal" remains the threat. And for that to happen it means that the UK government has to sit there and actively plan to collapse our economy. For our MPs to sit there doing nothing knowing the consequences. For the machinery of government to operate as the German government did at the end of April 1945.

    We won't agree the deal. And we won't crash out because the MPs and the Government and the Civil Service aren't batshit crazy.

    It doesn't matter any longer what "the people" think because what they voted for has transpired to be an illusion. We aren't going to allow ourselves to be smashed onto the rocks because of "will of the people" - and that will would be brought into focus very quickly if we did and the consequences bring ruin to them.

    We aren't leaving on 29th March.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,833

    PSOE is in danger of getting its worst-ever result in Andalucia. The headlines I’ve seen in the Spanish papers this morning have been largely positive for Sanchez, though as you’d expect he has been attacked by PP and Cs. If PSOE gets over 30% next Sunday it’ll be job done.

    Latest Andalucia poll has the PSOE on 32%, down 3% on 2015, the PP on 20.5%, down 6% on 2015, Cs on 18%, up 9% on 2015. The Podemos combined leftist coalition is on 21%, pretty much unchanged.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Andalusian_regional_election,_2018#Opinion_polls
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,770
    If deal does go through - Conservatives only and immediate concern will be staying in power which requires DUP support.

    That surely implies May would have to go and that winner of contest will be someone who is DUP friendly - ie Johnson or somebody who says what Johnson said yesterday.
  • malcolmg said:

    G, madness if anyone in UK accepts this travesty of a deal. The Tories are sunk and will be out of power for a long time come the next election.
    That view is shared by the partys opponents understandably
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679

    No, he refers to the 1922 committee seperately. The deep state reference and it's following passage are what I am referring to.
    But even so, there is no possible interpretation of our brightly coloured underwater friend's post that reads that he is calling for the Prime Minister to be literally assassinated.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,833
    malcolmg said:

    G, madness if anyone in UK accepts this travesty of a deal. The Tories are sunk and will be out of power for a long time come the next election.
    On current polling even if Corbyn became PM the Tories could well be largest party still
  • And the HoC for two opposing reasons will not agree the deal as it leaves us worse off than we are now. "Then we'll crash out with no deal" remains the threat. And for that to happen it means that the UK government has to sit there and actively plan to collapse our economy. For our MPs to sit there doing nothing knowing the consequences. For the machinery of government to operate as the German government did at the end of April 1945.

    We won't agree the deal. And we won't crash out because the MPs and the Government and the Civil Service aren't batshit crazy.

    It doesn't matter any longer what "the people" think because what they voted for has transpired to be an illusion. We aren't going to allow ourselves to be smashed onto the rocks because of "will of the people" - and that will would be brought into focus very quickly if we did and the consequences bring ruin to them.

    We aren't leaving on 29th March.
    I respect your view but it is a view, there are many others available
This discussion has been closed.