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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Tuesday the final midterms showdown – the Mississippi senatori
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Tuesday the final midterms showdown – the Mississippi senatorial run-off
It might be 3 weeks since the US midterm elections but there is a lot still to be settled. One of the interesting features from a British perspective is that some States seem to take an enormously long time to actually count the votes and not all the California seats in the house have been resolved yet.
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So, If I believed half of what was written on here(the previous thread), We've lost Gibraltar, We are now an Island colony of the EU/ France and as Corporal Fraser would say, We're Doomed I tell you, Doomed.
https://twitter.com/nadinedorries/status/1066603788193226752?s=21
Has quickly transformed into:
"Dont panic!, don't panic!"
One of the things that has long bedeviled British attitudes to Europe is our nostalgic obsessiin with WW2. Attempting to view everything through that distorting prism is a major handicap.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/nov/24/campaign-corbyn-peoples-vote-special-conference-referendum
OT: blimey. HoC was nearly 30 years ago.
ETA: hold on! Chequers? Has Nadine been hoodwinked?
13/1 is decent odds, as I agree there’s a real chance of an upset.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/nov/24/dup-prepared-to-bring-down-government-may-brexit-deal
https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/poll-reveals-majority-brexiteers-constituents-13640744
Answer was no.
Expect lots of brexiteers getting the same question
To be fair TM has achieved brexit but if the UK rejects it so be it.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate_special_election_in_Mississippi,_2018
No deal brexiteers need to start making a convincing case for it
Now going on about 'citizens assemblies' and delaying Brexit for a 'process of dialogue'. Clearly clueless about what she wants to do other than backing extension of Article 50
But my gods it's going to be silly, even for this, for the next few weeks. Those relying on markets to spook what needs to be 100 or more mps (huge numbers of Tory rebels and some number of Labour ones) to see a deal through are fooling themselves.
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-timetable-key-dates-uk-leave-eu-vote-commons-deal-european-coun-a8586101.html
Today is a farce and 2 years of effort have been an absolute waste.
I might have to take a break from PB....
Says though the UK can stay in the EU under current conditions though but will have to pay the cost of the negotiations
Even the Red Bus only had one lie in it. Even Blair's Dodgy Dossier was predicated on the concept of truth which is why he went to the lengths he did to create evidence to prove claims. May's casual assault on the concept of objective truth in that letter is now full Trumpian. The parliamentary system makes her much easier to remove than a US president. Whether it's now the '22 route, cabinet revolt, the House itself or the deep state she needs to go and go immediately. She's clearly crossed an internal psychological barrier and with the power she holds such unhinged people are very dangerous.
Someone somewhere needs to do their duty.
It is for the HOC to navigate its way from here but we are now looking at a deal that is a benchmark to use
I expect it to fall in the HOC but TM needs to put it to Parliament and lets see when and if it falls the response from TM and the EU
They don't believe the EU and think no deal wont happen either. We have to hope they're right because given they don't believe the EU there's no reason to think they will vote differently if they do it a second time. At least with a referendum people might as the question may be slightly different.
Have a good day everyone. We need to get to this vote fast and see if those chancing no deal because they prioritise party interest through a GE or unrealistic dreams of negotiation are correct.
There is no better Deal available for Leavers bar No Deal which with just 32% of voters backing it according to Survation likely just leads back to Remain sooner or later
It took a kiddy fiddler being the Alabama GOP candidate to get Doug Jones the win but technically it is a smaller hill in Mississippi
I wish it weren't so, but there's no incentive for parliament to approve anything. Not for those seeking a GE, not for those implacably opposed, not for new deal dreamers.
I think farce is pretty appropriate.
It's cowardice not to.
And if we remain after all this? For the first time ever I am considering not voting in something. Not because it would be undemocratic, but just because why waste so much energy on politics when it is all so useless and meaningless.
She is far away the most popular politician for Brexit in the Country
Back to the letter. I don't see May's Leaver arguments appealing to Remainers at all. So this isn't a letter to the nation. It's a letter to Leavers to tell them the deal isn't as bad as they think it is. Some will believe her; some won't. But we're talking about a proportion of half of the electorate. Say 25% to 30%.
I think she would do better with a We Are Where We Are approach.
Does not confirm either she will support May's Tories on confidence and supply even if her Deal is voted down but would have to look at the circumstances. Suggests could be a general election in January if the DUP vote down May's government
The anti-deal brigade need to be careful they cry wolf too loud and often.
https://twitter.com/FraserNelson/status/1066327510483378183
https://twitter.com/theresa_may/status/1066466567700037632
https://twitter.com/nicolasturgeon/status/1066635029013544965?s=21
https://twitter.com/AlbertoNardelli/status/1066383963302895616?s=19
There is a good argument from the Spectator that for policy reasons the court might see fit to answer that question in the negative. The EU would not want Article 50 to become a ransom notice any time a Member State feels aggrieved about something. If it becomes something that only the EU can agree to withdraw, I don’t see why they wouldnt attach conditions to it - I.e the loss of an odd opt-out here or there. It then becomes much of a harder sell.
As people who have agitated for Brexit say 'this Deal is not Brexit' we need to vote again on whether we want to accept their Brexit or not.
Staying tied to Europe's rules is a 'pointless Brexit', the alternative Brexit is a 'painful Brexit.' Says a majority for EUref2 'will get there' in the House of Commons and expects Labour ultimately to back it. Parliament will not vote for this Deal and no desire from Tories for a general election so only alternative is EUref2
Blair on Marr just turning the nation against a second referendum
No reply yet.......how curious.......The Brexiteers and Remoaners are cut from the same cloth - repeat a lie often enough and it will be believed. Take the whole Gibraltar "capitulation":
https://twitter.com/FabianPicardo/status/1066450063646429185
We will have full control over our waters (which we will use to agree reciprocal access, like under the existing arrangements)
There will be no hard border in Ireland and we won’t be under any kind of European court jurisdiction (but only once we’ve found a way to not have a hard border without adopting any rules which are interpreted by European courts, which we’ve made no progress on during 2 years)
The apostrophe in “taxpayer’s” is probably the most offensive part though.