politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » A second referendum is a dangerous distraction to the real act
Comments
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i was going to comment, but what's the point?
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Mr. Meeks, if someone wanted to leave the EU because they wanted control of trade, how do you square that? The vote was Leave or Remain, not approving or disapproving of either campaign.
May is negotiating, very poorly, our departure. Nobody made her trigger it prematurely. Nobody made her call (and then spectacularly bungle) an early election. Nobody prevented her planning for no deal. Nobody forced her to seek to retain as close as relationship as possible with the EU rather than seeking to optimise the opportunities of governing ourselves.0 -
Well obviously. The people of Hartlepool and Boston were not voting for exciting FTAs with Guatemala.Pulpstar said:
I'm convinced the free trade leavers are massively overrepresented in the media compared to the anti immigration leavers amongst the general population.AlastairMeeks said:And once again we should pause for 30 seconds to reflect that the deal that Theresa May has negotiated reflects the referendum campaign fought by Leave, which focussed almost exclusively on anti-immigration scare stories and spending money on the NHS.
If Leavers don’t like it, they should blame the way they campaigned. They are the authors of their own misfortune. Xenophobic lies have consequences for everyone.0 -
Down leg0
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Labour is about working people representing themselves and using government to meet our needs.NickPalmer said:
Corbyn is now widely seen as someone who can be imagined in No 10, which last time he wasn't. More generally, you can't beat something with nothing. Labour is essentially about restoring some of the balance in society between ultra-rich and very poor. One can be sceptical about that project, but it's undeniably a project which most people would concede has some value in principle. What are the Tories for, except getting through Brexit and dog-whistling?IanB2 said:
There was however a big novelty factor with Corbyn last time, not dissimilar to Clegg in 2010. It is unlikely the enthusiasm and interest will be the same second time around, especially as neither Corbyn nor Labour have excelled (or indeed done anything worthwhile?) since.Jonathan said:
Labour is stronger now than it was going into the 2017 election when it was nearly 20 points adrift at one point. Labours core will be well motivated and more motivated than the Tory core.
It is not about patricians and do gooders trying to save us. We can look after our own.0 -
And nobody on the Leave side is recognising that she has negotiated on the basis of the referendum campaign that they fought. If those weren’t their priorities, they have only themselves to blame.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Meeks, if someone wanted to leave the EU because they wanted control of trade, how do you square that? The vote was Leave or Remain, not approving or disapproving of either campaign.
May is negotiating, very poorly, our departure. Nobody made her trigger it prematurely. Nobody made her call (and then spectacularly bungle) an early election. Nobody prevented her planning for no deal. Nobody forced her to seek to retain as close as relationship as possible with the EU rather than seeking to optimise the opportunities of governing ourselves.0 -
We don't need to imagine. Just look at Donald Trump and you get a fair idea of what a Corbyn administration would be like.NickPalmer said:Corbyn is now widely seen as someone who can be imagined in No 10, which last time he wasn't.
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Quite. The DUP were never the sharpest tools but they had effective leadership. Foster has her own little (in NI cash terms, huge) corruption scandal going on so is wrapping herself in the union flag. Tactically that might be ok, strategically she’s wandering around a minefield blindfolded.alex. said:Re DUP. Govt might as well take them at their word about “no divergence” and introduce votes on the floor of the HoC over abortion and the education system.
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Mr. Meeks, I can't recall many (any?) people wanting us to leave who thought that the customs union should be maintained, and the regulator annexation of Northern Ireland was a good idea.0
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Well quite - the hand wringers of the modern day really lack any ability to think critically so consumed are they by their guilt of being white, middle-aged and comfortably off.Casino_Royale said:
She is using the colloquial language of the everyday man or woman in provincial Britain.Pulpstar said:Hmm EU migrants haven't jumped any queue, more they had a right not to queue so to speak. I don't think it's a particularly racist remark though, more xenophobic perhaps.
No xenophobia is meant by it, nor by them either, and whilst it might make some painfully right-on urban professionals wince - who generally read far too much into language and look for motives that usually aren’t there - it is simply a British way of expressing the debate in terms of fair play.
EU nationals had an automatic right of free movement, others did not, so she simply wants to make it fair by applying the same rules to everyone.0 -
That’s way too harsh. Irish bogs aren’t as thick as Arlene.felix said:
She clearly is either as thick as an Irish bog or favours a united Irelans as that is what Corbyn will give her.TheScreamingEagles said:Theresa May’s Brexit deal is a worse outcome for Britain than a government led by Jeremy Corbyn, Arlene Foster says today.
The head of the Democratic Unionist Party warns the prime minister that she cannot count on its ten MPs to save her from a vote of no confidence if the Commons rejects the deal.
In an interview with The Times Mrs Foster makes clear that the Tories’ wavering allies will not be bullied into propping up Mrs May by the fear of a Labour election victory.
Although the arrival of Mr Corbyn in No 10 is “not a pleasant scenario”, she says a divorce deal that in her view carves Northern Ireland from Britain is worse.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/party-members-were-expected-to-turn-on-the-prime-minister-yet-many-who-dislike-her-deal-respect-her-spirit-dslnx6hb6
As an aside I’m looking like even more of a visionary now.
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2018/03/18/if-the-dup-can-make-martin-mcguinness-deputy-first-minister-of-northern-ireland-then-we-shouldnt-rule-them-out-making-corbyn-prime-minister/0 -
I think you are wrong - they are the very people seeking to torpedo a deal which is about as good as any serious commentator ever expected to get and it reflects quite accurately the 52/48 split. Of course the deal is bad, it is what Brexit was always going to be.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Jonathan, disagree. If nobody likes the deal, the nation is united.
Mr. Meeks, holding people who aren't negotiating to account for the way the negotiation has been mishandled is an odd view.0 -
Bit early to be on the sauce, no?ydoethur said:
We don't need to imagine. Just look at Donald Trump and you get a fair idea of what a Corbyn administration would be like.NickPalmer said:Corbyn is now widely seen as someone who can be imagined in No 10, which last time he wasn't.
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I think Alastair is right - MPs should take a view on the deal and then ask the public, either:SquareRoot said:
That's all very well , but both sides aren't telling the public the truth about Brexit.AlastairMeeks said:All options look implausible from here. One has to occur.
Trying to renegotiate looks more of a timewasting distraction to me than a second referendum. A second referendum, however, should not include a Deal option. Either Parliament blesses the deal or it is discarded. The public should not be expected to opine on 500 page documents but on concepts.
Remain vs the Deal (if it's been approved) or
Remain vs No Deal (if it's been rejected)
with, to be fair, some clear reassurance that even No Deal won't mean total paralysis, and we'll aim to settle for WTO status and normal 3rd party trading.
I think the EU would be willing to wait for such a decision, as they'd see a fair chance of Remain, which they would still, eye-rolling and all, prefer.
On SquareRoot's point, every democratic vote in Britain is accompanied by a legion of lies and half-truths. The electorate mostly work their way through them.0 -
They weren’t priorities. Being unpleasant to foreigners was. So your consternation is a consequence of Leaver priorities as expressed through the referendum campaign. Blame the Leavers who thought that was a good way to campaign.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Meeks, I can't recall many (any?) people wanting us to leave who thought that the customs union should be maintained, and the regulator annexation of Northern Ireland was a good idea.
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Why not? Guatemala is a source of avacados, used in guacamole, which as we know the people of Hartlepool consume in huge quantities, instead of mushy peas. According to its former MP.AlastairMeeks said:
Well obviously. The people of Hartlepool and Boston were not voting for exciting FTAs with Guatemala.Pulpstar said:
I'm convinced the free trade leavers are massively overrepresented in the media compared to the anti immigration leavers amongst the general population.AlastairMeeks said:And once again we should pause for 30 seconds to reflect that the deal that Theresa May has negotiated reflects the referendum campaign fought by Leave, which focussed almost exclusively on anti-immigration scare stories and spending money on the NHS.
If Leavers don’t like it, they should blame the way they campaigned. They are the authors of their own misfortune. Xenophobic lies have consequences for everyone.0 -
May's Deal if passed still leaves the EU and ends free movement and protects the economy and no EUref2 would therefore be required. In the event of her Deal being rejected twice or more by the Commons and we face the devastation of a No Deal scenario and the loss of manufacturing jobs and the exodus of factories and city firms abroad and shortage of food and potentially of medicines and riots in our cities and Scotland voting for independence and Northern Ireland for a United Ireland then EUref2 has to be on the cards and May knows that too hence she rightly now talks of 'no Brexit at all' if her Deal is rejected. Leave scraped a 52% win promising 'the easiest Deal in history' with the EU not the disaster of No Deal.
The evidence on the whole is also both Remain and May's Deal would beat No Deal.
Yougov has Remain beating No Deal by a comfortable 55% to 45% margin head to head.
http://uk.businessinsider.com/yougov-poll-voters-would-rather-remain-in-eu-than-accept-a-no-deal-brexit-2018-7
Ashcroft's poll yesterday had May's Deal beating No Deal head to head by a narrower but still clear margin of 7% with 34% preferring May's Deal and just 27% No Deal.
https://lordashcroftpolls.com/2018/11/my-new-brexit-poll-good-for-theresa-may-bad-for-her-deal/
Labour voters prefer the Deal to No Deal by 35% to 24%, LDs prefer the Deal to No Deal by a huge 54% to 11% margin and even Tory voters are equally split 35% for May's Deal and 35% for No Deal0 -
I often criticise you but genuinely feel your pain this time.Beverley_C said:i was going to comment, but what's the point?
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Some polls had Remain winning by 10%.HYUFD said:May's Deal if passed still leaves the EU and ends free movement and protects the economy and no EUref2 would therefore be required. In the event of her Deal being rejected twice or more by the Commons and we face the devastation of a No Deal scenario and the loss of manufacturing jobs and the exodus of factories and city forms abroad and shortage of food and potentially of medicines and riots in our cities and Scotland voting for independence and Northern Ireland for a United Ireland then EUref2 has to be on the cards and May knows that too hence she rightly now talks of 'no Brexit at all' if her Deal is rejected. Leave scraped a 52% win promising 'the easiest Deal in history' with the EU not the disaster of No Deal.
The evidence on the whole is also both Remain and May's Deal would beat No Deal.
Yougov has Remain beating No Deal by a comfortable 55% to 45% margin head to head.
http://uk.businessinsider.com/yougov-poll-voters-would-rather-remain-in-eu-than-accept-a-no-deal-brexit-2018-7
Ashcroft's poll yesterday had May's Deal beating No Deal head to head by a narrower but still clear margin of 7% with 34% preferring May's Deal and just 27% No Deal.
https://lordashcroftpolls.com/2018/11/my-new-brexit-poll-good-for-theresa-may-bad-for-her-deal/
Labour voters prefer the Deal to No Deal by 35% to 24%, LDs prefer the Deal to No Deal by a huge 54% to 11% margin and even Tory voters are equally split 35% for May's Deal and 35% for No Deal
Polls can be wrong.0 -
There's that sneering metropolitan putdown which helped drive the Brexit vote again.AlastairMeeks said:
Well obviously. The people of Hartlepool and Boston were not voting for exciting FTAs with Guatemala.Pulpstar said:
I'm convinced the free trade leavers are massively overrepresented in the media compared to the anti immigration leavers amongst the general population.AlastairMeeks said:And once again we should pause for 30 seconds to reflect that the deal that Theresa May has negotiated reflects the referendum campaign fought by Leave, which focussed almost exclusively on anti-immigration scare stories and spending money on the NHS.
If Leavers don’t like it, they should blame the way they campaigned. They are the authors of their own misfortune. Xenophobic lies have consequences for everyone.0 -
Really, Most people I know, even Labour folk think he's a lefty loon.NickPalmer said:
Corbyn is now widely seen as someone who can be imagined in No 10, which last time he wasn't. More generally, you can't beat something with nothing. Labour is essentially about restoring some of the balance in society between ultra-rich and very poor. One can be sceptical about that project, but it's undeniably a project which most people would concede has some value in principle. What are the Tories for, except getting through Brexit and dog-whistling?IanB2 said:
There was however a big novelty factor with Corbyn last time, not dissimilar to Clegg in 2010. It is unlikely the enthusiasm and interest will be the same second time around, especially as neither Corbyn nor Labour have excelled (or indeed done anything worthwhile?) since.Jonathan said:
Labour is stronger now than it was going into the 2017 election when it was nearly 20 points adrift at one point. Labours core will be well motivated and more motivated than the Tory core.0 -
I always love being saucy, as you know.Bromptonaut said:
Bit early to be on the sauce, no?ydoethur said:
We don't need to imagine. Just look at Donald Trump and you get a fair idea of what a Corbyn administration would be like.NickPalmer said:Corbyn is now widely seen as someone who can be imagined in No 10, which last time he wasn't.
But you're right in a sense, it is an unfair comparison. Corbyn would probably be quite a bit worse.0 -
Customs union didn't come up once with the leave voters I spoke toMorris_Dancer said:Mr. Meeks, I can't recall many (any?) people wanting us to leave who thought that the customs union should be maintained, and the regulator annexation of Northern Ireland was a good idea.
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The thing is, people never Czech them out properly.TheScreamingEagles said:
Some polls had Remain winning by 10%.HYUFD said:May's Deal if passed still leaves the EU and ends free movement and protects the economy and no EUref2 would therefore be required. In the event of her Deal being rejected twice or more by the Commons and we face the devastation of a No Deal scenario and the loss of manufacturing jobs and the exodus of factories and city forms abroad and shortage of food and potentially of medicines and riots in our cities and Scotland voting for independence and Northern Ireland for a United Ireland then EUref2 has to be on the cards and May knows that too hence she rightly now talks of 'no Brexit at all' if her Deal is rejected. Leave scraped a 52% win promising 'the easiest Deal in history' with the EU not the disaster of No Deal.
The evidence on the whole is also both Remain and May's Deal would beat No Deal.
Yougov has Remain beating No Deal by a comfortable 55% to 45% margin head to head.
http://uk.businessinsider.com/yougov-poll-voters-would-rather-remain-in-eu-than-accept-a-no-deal-brexit-2018-7
Ashcroft's poll yesterday had May's Deal beating No Deal head to head by a narrower but still clear margin of 7% with 34% preferring May's Deal and just 27% No Deal.
https://lordashcroftpolls.com/2018/11/my-new-brexit-poll-good-for-theresa-may-bad-for-her-deal/
Labour voters prefer the Deal to No Deal by 35% to 24%, LDs prefer the Deal to No Deal by a huge 54% to 11% margin and even Tory voters are equally split 35% for May's Deal and 35% for No Deal
Polls can be wrong.
Edit - apart from @Dura_Ace of course, whose remarks about the Polish prostitute and the Yorkshire terrier continue to haunt me.0 -
+1SquareRoot said:
Really, Most people I know, even Labour folk think he's a lefty loon.NickPalmer said:
Corbyn is now widely seen as someone who can be imagined in No 10, which last time he wasn't. More generally, you can't beat something with nothing. Labour is essentially about restoring some of the balance in society between ultra-rich and very poor. One can be sceptical about that project, but it's undeniably a project which most people would concede has some value in principle. What are the Tories for, except getting through Brexit and dog-whistling?IanB2 said:
There was however a big novelty factor with Corbyn last time, not dissimilar to Clegg in 2010. It is unlikely the enthusiasm and interest will be the same second time around, especially as neither Corbyn nor Labour have excelled (or indeed done anything worthwhile?) since.Jonathan said:
Labour is stronger now than it was going into the 2017 election when it was nearly 20 points adrift at one point. Labours core will be well motivated and more motivated than the Tory core.0 -
None of the final polls had Remain ahead by 10% or more.TheScreamingEagles said:
Some polls had Remain winning by 10%.HYUFD said:May's Deal if passed still leaves the EU and ends free movement and protects the economy and no EUref2 would therefore be required. In the event of her Deal being rejected twice or more by the Commons and we face the devastation of a No Deal scenario and the loss of manufacturing jobs and the exodus of factories and city forms abroad and shortage of food and potentially of medicines and riots in our cities and Scotland voting for independence and Northern Ireland for a United Ireland then EUref2 has to be on the cards and May knows that too hence she rightly now talks of 'no Brexit at all' if her Deal is rejected. Leave scraped a 52% win promising 'the easiest Deal in history' with the EU not the disaster of No Deal.
The evidence on the whole is also both Remain and May's Deal would beat No Deal.
Yougov has Remain beating No Deal by a comfortable 55% to 45% margin head to head.
http://uk.businessinsider.com/yougov-poll-voters-would-rather-remain-in-eu-than-accept-a-no-deal-brexit-2018-7
Ashcroft's poll yesterday had May's Deal beating No Deal head to head by a narrower but still clear margin of 7% with 34% preferring May's Deal and just 27% No Deal.
https://lordashcroftpolls.com/2018/11/my-new-brexit-poll-good-for-theresa-may-bad-for-her-deal/
Labour voters prefer the Deal to No Deal by 35% to 24%, LDs prefer the Deal to No Deal by a huge 54% to 11% margin and even Tory voters are equally split 35% for May's Deal and 35% for No Deal
Polls can be wrong.
However if Leave with No Deal wins fine, it will likely be economically devastating and many Leave voters could lose their jobs and the UK could break up but fair enough, they cannot say they were not warned.
They would have voted to Leave on the No Deal terms given not on terms of the 'easiest Deal in history' with the EU or staying in the single market all of which were claimed as options by some Leavers in EUref10 -
What are these imaginary powers she will get from a future FTA, what Utopia is she promising us.Casino_Royale said:May can win the vote if she talks about the future FTA, the powers the UK will have, and what she'll use them for. There are tentative signs she is starting to recognise this.
She will lose if she mentions the Withdrawal Agreement (of which 95% is about a maximum 45 month transition period) again after Sunday.0 -
Except when they are Russing to judgement.ydoethur said:
The thing is, people never Czech them out properly.TheScreamingEagles said:
Some polls had Remain winning by 10%.HYUFD said:May's Deal if passed still leaves the EU and ends free movement and protects the economy and no EUref2 would therefore be required. In the event of her Deal being rejected twice or more by the Commons and we face the devastation of a No Deal scenario and the loss of manufacturing jobs and the exodus of factories and city forms abroad and shortage of food and potentially of medicines and riots in our cities and Scotland voting for independence and Northern Ireland for a United Ireland then EUref2 has to be on the cards and May knows that too hence she rightly now talks of 'no Brexit at all' if her Deal is rejected. Leave scraped a 52% win promising 'the easiest Deal in history' with the EU not the disaster of No Deal.
The evidence on the whole is also both Remain and May's Deal would beat No Deal.
Yougov has Remain beating No Deal by a comfortable 55% to 45% margin head to head.
http://uk.businessinsider.com/yougov-poll-voters-would-rather-remain-in-eu-than-accept-a-no-deal-brexit-2018-7
Ashcroft's poll yesterday had May's Deal beating No Deal head to head by a narrower but still clear margin of 7% with 34% preferring May's Deal and just 27% No Deal.
https://lordashcroftpolls.com/2018/11/my-new-brexit-poll-good-for-theresa-may-bad-for-her-deal/
Labour voters prefer the Deal to No Deal by 35% to 24%, LDs prefer the Deal to No Deal by a huge 54% to 11% margin and even Tory voters are equally split 35% for May's Deal and 35% for No Deal
Polls can be wrong.
Edit - apart from @Dura_Ace of course, whose remarks about the Polish prostitute and the Yorkshire terrier continue to haunt me.0 -
You appear to be Hungary for more.felix said:
Except when they are Russing to judgement.ydoethur said:
The thing is, people never Czech them out properly.TheScreamingEagles said:
Some polls had Remain winning by 10%.HYUFD said:May's Deal if passed still leaves the EU and ends free movement and protects the economy and no EUref2 would therefore be required. In the event of her Deal being rejected twice or more by the Commons and we face the devastation of a No Deal scenario and the loss of manufacturing jobs and the exodus of factories and city forms abroad and shortage of food and potentially of medicines and riots in our cities and Scotland voting for independence and Northern Ireland for a United Ireland then EUref2 has to be on the cards and May knows that too hence she rightly now talks of 'no Brexit at all' if her Deal is rejected. Leave scraped a 52% win promising 'the easiest Deal in history' with the EU not the disaster of No Deal.
The evidence on the whole is also both Remain and May's Deal would beat No Deal.
Yougov has Remain beating No Deal by a comfortable 55% to 45% margin head to head.
http://uk.businessinsider.com/yougov-poll-voters-would-rather-remain-in-eu-than-accept-a-no-deal-brexit-2018-7
Ashcroft's poll yesterday had May's Deal beating No Deal head to head by a narrower but still clear margin of 7% with 34% preferring May's Deal and just 27% No Deal.
https://lordashcroftpolls.com/2018/11/my-new-brexit-poll-good-for-theresa-may-bad-for-her-deal/
Labour voters prefer the Deal to No Deal by 35% to 24%, LDs prefer the Deal to No Deal by a huge 54% to 11% margin and even Tory voters are equally split 35% for May's Deal and 35% for No Deal
Polls can be wrong.
Edit - apart from @Dura_Ace of course, whose remarks about the Polish prostitute and the Yorkshire terrier continue to haunt me.0 -
Funny, I thought it was a sneering putdown of metropolitans.felix said:
There's that sneering metropolitan putdown which helped drive the Brexit vote again.AlastairMeeks said:
Well obviously. The people of Hartlepool and Boston were not voting for exciting FTAs with Guatemala.Pulpstar said:
I'm convinced the free trade leavers are massively overrepresented in the media compared to the anti immigration leavers amongst the general population.AlastairMeeks said:And once again we should pause for 30 seconds to reflect that the deal that Theresa May has negotiated reflects the referendum campaign fought by Leave, which focussed almost exclusively on anti-immigration scare stories and spending money on the NHS.
If Leavers don’t like it, they should blame the way they campaigned. They are the authors of their own misfortune. Xenophobic lies have consequences for everyone.0 -
When your enemy plans to burn you alive then what does that matterCarlottaVance said:
Revenge is like trying to hurt your enemy by drinking poison yourself.YellowSubmarine said:Why would Remainers vote for Corbyn after Brexit had taken effect ? Revenge.
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I campaigned a lot during the referendum, including in Morris Dancer’s patch, the customs union was mentioned once, Northern Ireland never by Leavers.Pulpstar said:
Customs union didn't come up once with the leave voters I spoke toMorris_Dancer said:Mr. Meeks, I can't recall many (any?) people wanting us to leave who thought that the customs union should be maintained, and the regulator annexation of Northern Ireland was a good idea.
It was all about immigration.0 -
Wonderful moment in an interview at a school in Bristol:AlastairMeeks said:
Funny, I thought it was a sneering putdown of metropolitans.felix said:
There's that sneering metropolitan putdown which helped drive the Brexit vote again.AlastairMeeks said:
Well obviously. The people of Hartlepool and Boston were not voting for exciting FTAs with Guatemala.Pulpstar said:
I'm convinced the free trade leavers are massively overrepresented in the media compared to the anti immigration leavers amongst the general population.AlastairMeeks said:And once again we should pause for 30 seconds to reflect that the deal that Theresa May has negotiated reflects the referendum campaign fought by Leave, which focussed almost exclusively on anti-immigration scare stories and spending money on the NHS.
If Leavers don’t like it, they should blame the way they campaigned. They are the authors of their own misfortune. Xenophobic lies have consequences for everyone.
'I'm afraid you come across as very condescending Dr because you simply can't understand an inner-city setting.'0 -
If you really believe that the mass of the electorate understands what the Customs Union is and has a view on it or gives a shit about Ulster you’re a sheltered and ignorant fool. It was all about immigrants and proper lightbulbs.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Meeks, I can't recall many (any?) people wanting us to leave who thought that the customs union should be maintained, and the regulator annexation of Northern Ireland was a good idea.
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The Populus final poll did.HYUFD said:
None of the final polls had Remain ahead by 10% or more.TheScreamingEagles said:
Some polls had Remain winning by 10%.HYUFD said:May's Deal if passed still leaves the EU and ends free movement and protects the economy and no EUref2 would therefore be required. In the event of her Deal being rejected twice or more by the Commons and we face the devastation of a No Deal scenario and the loss of manufacturing jobs and the exodus of factories and city forms abroad and shortage of food and potentially of medicines and riots in our cities and Scotland voting for independence and Northern Ireland for a United Ireland then EUref2 has to be on the cards and May knows that too hence she rightly now talks of 'no Brexit at all' if her Deal is rejected. Leave scraped a 52% win promising 'the easiest Deal in history' with the EU not the disaster of No Deal.
The evidence on the whole is also both Remain and May's Deal would beat No Deal.
Yougov has Remain beating No Deal by a comfortable 55% to 45% margin head to head.
http://uk.businessinsider.com/yougov-poll-voters-would-rather-remain-in-eu-than-accept-a-no-deal-brexit-2018-7
Ashcroft's poll yesterday had May's Deal beating No Deal head to head by a narrower but still clear margin of 7% with 34% preferring May's Deal and just 27% No Deal.
https://lordashcroftpolls.com/2018/11/my-new-brexit-poll-good-for-theresa-may-bad-for-her-deal/
Labour voters prefer the Deal to No Deal by 35% to 24%, LDs prefer the Deal to No Deal by a huge 54% to 11% margin and even Tory voters are equally split 35% for May's Deal and 35% for No Deal
Polls can be wrong.
However if Leave with No Deal wins fine, it will likely be economically devastating and many Leave voters could lose their jobs and the UK could break up but fair enough, they cannot say they were not warned.
They would have voted to Leave on the No Deal terms given not on terms of the 'easiest Deal in history' with the EU or staying in the single market all of which were claimed as options by some Leavers in EUref10 -
I have spicier anecdotes, including an absolute burner about Hong Kong, but they are for the graveyard shift. Not pre-watershed material.ydoethur said:
The thing is, people never Czech them out properly.
Edit - apart from @Dura_Ace of course, whose remarks about the Polish prostitute and the Yorkshire terrier continue to haunt me.0 -
I found it fascinating that Hartley Brewer was not really in favour of gambling but yet in favour of a no deal Brexit on QT.
If that's not a gamble with the whole country I have no idea what is. Of course she's one of the media vox pops that'll be completely unaffected by no deal.0 -
The lesser of two evils, Corbyn is a bumbling deluded fool, May is pure evil.SouthamObserver said:
Attacks on EU immigrant queue jumpers and the like will certainly help to keep the fragile Labour coalition together. May’s sour, xenophobic nativism, combined with the sheer lunacy of the Bucanneers, are very good reasons to prevent the Tories winning, I do concede. And if it were not for the Corbyn factor Labour would get my vote without hesitation. But who do you choose when the fight is between two racists?Jonathan said:
Mays hunting dog whistles helped push me into the arms of Corbyn. Little did I know that was a critical part of her integrated no deal Brexit policy. How foolish I was.SouthamObserver said:
That’s a but not a majority.Jonathan said:
Corbyn is not talking towhistling their core it will happen again.SouthamObserver said:
Surveys also showed that the desireless than where the voters are. How many Labour gains in 2017 were in Remain voting areas?TheJezziah said:
Surveys showed Brexit was a motivator for far fewer Labour voters than Conservative voters. If both parties lost all voters motivated by Brexit one way or another Labour would be better off than the Conservatives.SouthamObserver said:
Why would the number of 2017 Tory stay-at-homes be greater than the number of 2017 Labour stay-at-homes? I’d say there is a good argument for saying the latter may be a larger number than the former.Barnesian said:
Or 3) people in England who voted Tory in 2017 to stay at home.SouthamObserver said:Jonathan said:SouthamObserver said:
Yep. I expect the next general election to be the last one the Tories win for a very, very long time. As Bush observes, it’s an election that Labour should winYellowSubmarine said:The highly credible Stephen Bush thinks we are heading towards a 2019 General Election - and the Tories might win.
https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/elections/2018/11/election-2019-getting-more-likely-all-time-and-tories-could-benefit?amp&__twitter_impression=true
To win these days, a party only has to be slightly less bad than its opponents. The Tories are doing everything they can for Labour.
Although Labour has less reason to lose its remainer voters than the Conservatives their leave voters.0 -
Actually centrists are moving to the Tories post Deal, Yougov had 7% of 2017 LDs now backing the Tories and 3% of 2017 Labour voters backing the Tories even as the Tories lose 7% of their 2017 vote to UKIP for not being Leave enough. Overall as a result the Tories lead Labour with Yougov 39% to 36%Jonathan said:
Corbyn is not talking to centrists like us because he doesn’t need to. Enough of us will break for him as the lesser of two evils. Many did last time having sworn they never would. When you get into a campaign with Tories dog whistling their core it will happen again.SouthamObserver said:
Surveys also showed that the desire to stop Labour was a big motivator of the Tory vote. Once Brexit has happened, there is no Brexit-related reason for any Remainer to vote Labour. Under FPTP, the numbers matter much less than where the voters are. How many Labour gains in 2017 were in Remain voting areas?TheJezziah said:
Surveys showed Brexit was a motivator for far fewer Labour voters than Conservative voters. If both parties lost all voters motivated by Brexit one way or another Labour would be better off than the Conservatives.SouthamObserver said:
Why would the number of 2017 Tory stay-at-homes be greater than the number of 2017 Labour stay-at-homes? I’d say there is a good argument for saying the latter may be a larger number than the former.Barnesian said:
Or 3) people in England who voted Tory in 2017 to stay at home.SouthamObserver said:
Labour needs two things: (1) people in England who voted Tory in 2017 to switch; (2) people who voted SNP in Scotland to switch. I see no sign of either happening. I agree, the Tories - incompetent, divided and damaging - are doing their bit, but they have an impenetrable, bearded firewall.Jonathan said:SouthamObserver said:
Yep. I expect the next general election to be the last y will do the rest.YellowSubmarine said:The highly credible Stephen Bush thinks we are heading towards a 2019 General Election - and the Tories might win.
https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/elections/2018/11/election-2019-getting-more-likely-all-time-and-tories-could-benefit?amp&__twitter_impression=true
To win these days, a party only has to be slightly less bad than its opponents. The Tories are doing everything they can for Labour.
Although Labour has less reason to lose its remainer voters than the Conservatives their leave voters.0 -
This gives me a whole new understanding of that RAF recruitment slogan, 'Rise above the rest.'Dura_Ace said:
I have spicier anecdotes, including an absolute burner about Hong Kong, but they are for the graveyard shift. Not pre-watershed material.ydoethur said:
The thing is, people never Czech them out properly.
Edit - apart from @Dura_Ace of course, whose remarks about the Polish prostitute and the Yorkshire terrier continue to haunt me.0 -
If we want to sell product into the EU as a third country then you need to abide by EU standards. Simple as that.Beverley_C said:so, it is "vassalage" or crash?
no other options exist?
We can, of course, ask for different (higher or lower) standards for the U.K. market but our exporters would need to then decide whether it is worth manufacturing to twi sets of standards. For some it will be for others not.
In practice those areas would be very limited. I would expect that, over time, we will have better standards in financial services (some tougher, some looser) but that the EU is u likely to withdraw equivalence (in the way it treats US regulation as equivalent). I’d also like to see higher standards in animal welfare where we have always been on the stricter end.
But that’s just life. It’s not “vassalage”0 -
Utter bollox , she was encouraging the xenophobic Little EnglandersCasino_Royale said:
She is using the colloquial language of the everyday man or woman in provincial Britain.Pulpstar said:Hmm EU migrants haven't jumped any queue, more they had a right not to queue so to speak. I don't think it's a particularly racist remark though, more xenophobic perhaps.
No xenophobia is meant by it, nor by them either, and whilst it might make some painfully right-on urban professionals wince - who generally read far too much into language and look for motives that usually aren’t there - it is simply a British way of expressing the debate in terms of fair play.
EU nationals had an automatic right of free movement, others did not, so she simply wants to make it fair by applying the same rules to everyone.0 -
He is bumbling, and deluded, and a fool.malcolmg said:The lesser of two evils, Corbyn is a bumbling deluded fool, May is pure evil.
But he's also an unabashed supporter of and at times paid apologist for Russia, Venezuela, Iran, Hamas, the IRA and John McDonnell.
It is possible he's evil as well.0 -
7% of 2017 LibDems or Brian as he is known to his friends.HYUFD said:
Actually centrists are moving to the Tories post Deal, Yougov had 7% of 2017 LDs now backing the Tories and 3% of 2017 Labour voters backing the Tories even as the Tories lose 7% of their 2017 vote to UKIP for not being Leave enough. Overall as a result the Tories lead Labour with Yougov 39% to 36%Jonathan said:
Corbyn is not talking to centrists like us because he doesn’t need to. Enough of us will break for him as the lesser of two evils. Many did last time having sworn they never would. When you get into a campaign with Tories dog whistling their core it will happen again.SouthamObserver said:
Surveys also showed that the desire to stop Labour was a big motivator of the Tory vote. Once Brexit has happened, there is no Brexit-related reason for any Remainer to vote Labour. Under FPTP, the numbers matter much less than where the voters are. How many Labour gains in 2017 were in Remain voting areas?TheJezziah said:
Surveys showed Brexit was a motivator for far fewer Labour voters than Conservative voters. If both parties lost all voters motivated by Brexit one way or another Labour would be better off than the Conservatives.SouthamObserver said:
Why would the number of 2017 Tory stay-at-homes be greater than the number of 2017 Labour stay-at-homes? I’d say there is a good argument for saying the latter may be a larger number than the former.Barnesian said:
Or 3) people in England who voted Tory in 2017 to stay at home.SouthamObserver said:
Labour needs two things: (1) people in England who voted Tory in 2017 to switch; (2) people who voted SNP in Scotland to switch. I see no sign of either happening. I agree, the Tories - incompetent, divided and damaging - are doing their bit, but they have an impenetrable, bearded firewall.Jonathan said:SouthamObserver said:
Yep. I expect the next general election to be the last y will do the rest.YellowSubmarine said:The highly credible Stephen Bush thinks we are heading towards a 2019 General Election - and the Tories might win.
https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/elections/2018/11/election-2019-getting-more-likely-all-time-and-tories-could-benefit?amp&__twitter_impression=true
To win these days, a party only has to be slightly less bad than its opponents. The Tories are doing everything they can for Labour.
Although Labour has less reason to lose its remainer voters than the Conservatives their leave voters.0 -
Indeed, Tories got a 10% swing from Labour in the Bush Hill Park by election in Remain voting Enfield on Thursday after May got her Deal. In 2017 Enfield swung to Labour to try and stop hard Brexit with Labour gaining Enfield Southgate from the Tories and increasing its majority in Enfield North and EdmontonSouthamObserver said:
Surveys also showed that the desire to stop Labour was a big motivator of the Tory vote. Once Brexit has happened, there is no Brexit-related reason for any Remainer to vote Labour. Under FPTP, the numbers matter much less than where the voters are. How many Labour gains in 2017 were in Remain voting areas?TheJezziah said:
Surveys showed Brexit was a motivator for far fewer Labour voters than Conservative voters. If both parties lost all voters motivated by Brexit one way or another Labour would be better off than the Conservatives.SouthamObserver said:
Why would the number of 2017 Tory stay-at-homes be greater than the number of 2017 Labour stay-at-homes? I’d say there is a good argument for saying the latter may be a larger number than the former.Barnesian said:
Or 3) people in England who voted Tory in 2017 to stay at home.SouthamObserver said:
Labour needs two things: (1) people in England who voted Tory in 2017 to switch; (2) people who voted SNP in Scotland to switch. I see no sign of either happening. I agree, the Tories - incompetent, divided and damaging - are doing their bit, but they have an impenetrable, bearded firewall.Jonathan said:SouthamObserver said:
Yep. I expect the next general election to be the last one the Tories win for a very, very long time. As Bush observes, it’s an election that Labour should win. When it doesn’t the far left gerontocracy that currently controls the party will have nowhere to hide and that will mean big internal changes forced from the bottom up. Post-Brexit economic reality will do the rest.YellowSubmarine said:The highly credible Stephen Bush thinks we are heading towards a 2019 General Election - and the Tories might win.
https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/elections/2018/11/election-2019-getting-more-likely-all-time-and-tories-could-benefit?amp&__twitter_impression=true
To win these days, a party only has to be slightly less bad than its opponents. The Tories are doing everything they can for Labour.
Although Labour has less reason to lose its remainer voters than the Conservatives their leave voters.0 -
To be fair and going by your posts, Little Scotlanders aren’t very different.malcolmg said:
Utter bollox , she was encouraging the xenophobic Little EnglandersCasino_Royale said:
She is using the colloquial language of the everyday man or woman in provincial Britain.Pulpstar said:Hmm EU migrants haven't jumped any queue, more they had a right not to queue so to speak. I don't think it's a particularly racist remark though, more xenophobic perhaps.
No xenophobia is meant by it, nor by them either, and whilst it might make some painfully right-on urban professionals wince - who generally read far too much into language and look for motives that usually aren’t there - it is simply a British way of expressing the debate in terms of fair play.
EU nationals had an automatic right of free movement, others did not, so she simply wants to make it fair by applying the same rules to everyone.0 -
MD, you are very naive, May supports and arms the despots and helps them murder children, just she has not got the guts to do it openly. Thatcher wanted Mandela hanged , today's despots can be tomorrow's freedom fighters. May and the Tories support plenty of really nasty people.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Observer, Corbyn's an order of magnitude worse. When has May marched beneath banners of genocidal dictators? She has her many, many faults, but I'm not aware of her laying wreaths for anyone unworthy, or appointing as her economic chief someone who describes himself as a Marxist and wants to take down capitalism.
Mr. Observer (2), what's the verbal equivalent of a tin ear? A lead tongue? A granite larynx?
May's record of unforced errors and stupid little mistakes (cf the reduction of FOBT stakes, magically transforming a good government policy into terrible headlines) is remarkable.
I'd still take the mediocrity over the Marxist every day of the week, though.0 -
I don’t interpret that as saying they would support Remain.Pulpstar said:
Lol these Brexiteers are a wildly different type to those found in the wild out hereSouthamObserver said:This seems to be turning into a “thing”. Another Buccaneering Brexiteer says staying in is better than May’s deal.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/nov/24/pro-brexit-adviser-admits-uk-would-be-better-off-staying-in-eu
I think they are emphasising this is a truly awful deal in their view.
The fundamental issue is the breakdown in trust. If we trusted the EU we could sign up to the backstop. But we don’t because of the idiocy they have demonstrated over the last 2 years0 -
I do agree there are some xenophobes in Scotland as well, and you think that exonerates the xenophobic and racist behaviour that is rife in England right up to the PM.matt said:
To be fair and going by your posts, Little Scotlanders aren’t very different.malcolmg said:
Utter bollox , she was encouraging the xenophobic Little EnglandersCasino_Royale said:
She is using the colloquial language of the everyday man or woman in provincial Britain.Pulpstar said:Hmm EU migrants haven't jumped any queue, more they had a right not to queue so to speak. I don't think it's a particularly racist remark though, more xenophobic perhaps.
No xenophobia is meant by it, nor by them either, and whilst it might make some painfully right-on urban professionals wince - who generally read far too much into language and look for motives that usually aren’t there - it is simply a British way of expressing the debate in terms of fair play.
EU nationals had an automatic right of free movement, others did not, so she simply wants to make it fair by applying the same rules to everyone.0 -
Foster really is clueless, not only is Corbyn friends with Sinn Fein and a republican who supports a United Ireland as does McDonnell, polling in Northern Ireland shows a majority of Northern Irish voters would vote for a United Ireland over a hard border, Northern Irish Catholics overwhelminglyTheScreamingEagles said:Theresa May’s Brexit deal is a worse outcome for Britain than a government led by Jeremy Corbyn, Arlene Foster says today.
The head of the Democratic Unionist Party warns the prime minister that she cannot count on its ten MPs to save her from a vote of no confidence if the Commons rejects the deal.
In an interview with The Times Mrs Foster makes clear that the Tories’ wavering allies will not be bullied into propping up Mrs May by the fear of a Labour election victory.
Although the arrival of Mr Corbyn in No 10 is “not a pleasant scenario”, she says a divorce deal that in her view carves Northern Ireland from Britain is worse.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/party-members-were-expected-to-turn-on-the-prime-minister-yet-many-who-dislike-her-deal-respect-her-spirit-dslnx6hb60 -
You make some good points here about the problems. There is a lot of wishful thinking going on with a lot of the available options, from Labour and the Tory rebel 'it'll work out somehow don't worry' option to the 'remain will definitely win so dontworry' option,
I cannot believe May is unaware that the DUP will bring her down if the deal goes through so i presume foster is talking to other Tory mps rather than May, since whatever one thinks of her deal May clearly believed it is more important than preserving the government too, so pointing out the DUP will happily bring about Corbyn won't impact May.felix said:
She clearly is either as thick as an Irish bog or favours a united Ireland as that is what Corbyn will give her.TheScreamingEagles said:Theresa May’s Brexit deal is a worse outcome for Britain than a government led by Jeremy Corbyn, Arlene Foster says today.
The head of the Democratic Unionist Party warns the prime minister that she cannot count on its ten MPs to save her from a vote of no confidence if the Commons rejects the deal.
In an interview with The Times Mrs Foster makes clear that the Tories’ wavering allies will not be bullied into propping up Mrs May by the fear of a Labour election victory.
Although the arrival of Mr Corbyn in No 10 is “not a pleasant scenario”, she says a divorce deal that in her view carves Northern Ireland from Britain is worse.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/party-members-were-expected-to-turn-on-the-prime-minister-yet-many-who-dislike-her-deal-respect-her-spirit-dslnx6hb6
And good deal or not the principal of that is sound. Brexit is more important than fearing a Corbyn government.
I don't see a path to an outcome the DUP could possibly like.0 -
Ydoethur , May's pals make that lot look like pussy cats.ydoethur said:
He is bumbling, and deluded, and a fool.malcolmg said:The lesser of two evils, Corbyn is a bumbling deluded fool, May is pure evil.
But he's also an unabashed supporter of and at times paid apologist for Russia, Venezuela, Iran, Hamas, the IRA and John McDonnell.
It is possible he's evil as well.0 -
Yup I'm off to Iceland this morning.ydoethur said:
You appear to be Hungary for more.felix said:
Except when they are Russing to judgement.ydoethur said:
The thing is, people never Czech them out properly.TheScreamingEagles said:
Some polls had Remain winning by 10%.HYUFD said:May's Deal if passed still leaves the EU and ends free movement and protects the economy and no EUref2 would therefore be required. In the event of her Deal being rejected twice or more by the Commons and we face the devastation of a No Deal scenario and the loss of manufacturing jobs and the exodus of factories and city forms abroad and shortage of food and potentially of medicines and riots in our cities and Scotland voting for independence and Northern Ireland for a United Ireland then EUref2 has to be on the cards and May knows that too hence she rightly now talks of 'no Brexit at all' if her Deal is rejected. Leave scraped a 52% win promising 'the easiest Deal in history' with the EU not the disaster of No Deal.
The evidence on the whole is also both Remain and May's Deal would beat No Deal.
Yougov has Remain beating No Deal by a comfortable 55% to 45% margin head to head.
http://uk.businessinsider.com/yougov-poll-voters-would-rather-remain-in-eu-than-accept-a-no-deal-brexit-2018-7
Ashcroft's poll yesterday had May's Deal beating No Deal head to head by a narrower but still clear margin of 7% with 34% preferring May's Deal and just 27% No Deal.
https://lordashcroftpolls.com/2018/11/my-new-brexit-poll-good-for-theresa-may-bad-for-her-deal/
Labour voters prefer the Deal to No Deal by 35% to 24%, LDs prefer the Deal to No Deal by a huge 54% to 11% margin and even Tory voters are equally split 35% for May's Deal and 35% for No Deal
Polls can be wrong.
Edit - apart from @Dura_Ace of course, whose remarks about the Polish prostitute and the Yorkshire terrier continue to haunt me.0 -
Without wishing to be an apologist for the House of Saud -malcolmg said:
Ydoethur , May's pals make that lot look like pussy cats.ydoethur said:
He is bumbling, and deluded, and a fool.malcolmg said:The lesser of two evils, Corbyn is a bumbling deluded fool, May is pure evil.
But he's also an unabashed supporter of and at times paid apologist for Russia, Venezuela, Iran, Hamas, the IRA and John McDonnell.
It is possible he's evil as well.
That remark is simply wrong.0 -
The issue then is that the messaging isAlastairMeeks said:All options look implausible from here. One has to occur.
Trying to renegotiate looks more of a timewasting distraction to me than a second referendum. A second referendum, however, should not include a Deal option. Either Parliament blesses the deal or it is discarded. The public should not be expected to opine on 500 page documents but on concepts.
1. The voters told us to leave
2. MPs, who supported remain on the whole, discarded the deal that would let us leave in reasonably good order
3. Then asked the people to leave in disarray or change their mind
That’s an appalling message to send to democrats the world over0 -
But will anyone be found to Serbia when you get there?felix said:
Yup I'm off to Iceland this morning.ydoethur said:
You appear to be Hungary for more.felix said:
Except when they are Russing to judgement.ydoethur said:
The thing is, people never Czech them out properly.TheScreamingEagles said:
Some polls had Remain winning by 10%.HYUFD said:May's Deal if passed still leaves the EU and ends free movement and protects the economy and no EUref2 would therefore be required. In the event of her Deal being rejected twice or more by the Commons and we face the devastation of a No Deal scenario and the loss of manufacturing jobs and the exodus of factories and city forms abroad and shortage of food and potentially of medicines and riots in our cities and Scotland voting for independence and Northern Ireland for a United Ireland then EUref2 has to be on the cards and May knows that too hence she rightly now talks of 'no Brexit at all' if her Deal is rejected. Leave scraped a 52% win promising 'the easiest Deal in history' with the EU not the disaster of No Deal.
The evidence on the whole is also both Remain and May's Deal would beat No Deal.
Yougov has Remain beating No Deal by a comfortable 55% to 45% margin head to head.
http://uk.businessinsider.com/yougov-poll-voters-would-rather-remain-in-eu-than-accept-a-no-deal-brexit-2018-7
Ashcroft's poll yesterday had May's Deal beating No Deal head to head by a narrower but still clear margin of 7% with 34% preferring May's Deal and just 27% No Deal.
https://lordashcroftpolls.com/2018/11/my-new-brexit-poll-good-for-theresa-may-bad-for-her-deal/
Labour voters prefer the Deal to No Deal by 35% to 24%, LDs prefer the Deal to No Deal by a huge 54% to 11% margin and even Tory voters are equally split 35% for May's Deal and 35% for No Deal
Polls can be wrong.
Edit - apart from @Dura_Ace of course, whose remarks about the Polish prostitute and the Yorkshire terrier continue to haunt me.
I'm off as well. Have a good weekend.0 -
And yet people will do it. We've seen people on here happily admit to that intention and motivation. People vote for all sorts of reasons and many others will often think those reasons are bad, but they'll still do it.CarlottaVance said:
Revenge is like trying to hurt your enemy by drinking poison yourself.YellowSubmarine said:Why would Remainers vote for Corbyn after Brexit had taken effect ? Revenge.
0 -
Despite what @HYUFD believes no sitting Tory MO will vote against the government, or abstain, in a VoNCCasino_Royale said:
It's quite hard for a VoNC to pass the HoC, even with the DUP playing silly buggers.alex. said:Re DUP. Govt might as well take them at their word about “no divergence” and introduce votes on the floor of the HoC over abortion and the education system.
It needs 323 MPS, not 326, as Sinn Fein don't take their seats. The Tories have 317 MPs plus the speaker.
Assuming all Tory MPs turn up and play ball, which they should, those last five or six MPs could be very interesting, particularly since there are several independent MPs right now, none of whom are fans of Corbyn and don't take a whip.0 -
There are no good routes out of this now !Charles said:
The issue then is that the messaging isAlastairMeeks said:All options look implausible from here. One has to occur.
Trying to renegotiate looks more of a timewasting distraction to me than a second referendum. A second referendum, however, should not include a Deal option. Either Parliament blesses the deal or it is discarded. The public should not be expected to opine on 500 page documents but on concepts.
1. The voters told us to leave
2. MPs, who supported remain on the whole, discarded the deal that would let us leave in reasonably good order
3. Then asked the people to leave in disarray or change their mind
That’s an appalling message to send to democrats the world over0 -
Except they are even littler and can't do sports.matt said:
To be fair and going by your posts, Little Scotlanders aren’t very different.malcolmg said:
Utter bollox , she was encouraging the xenophobic Little EnglandersCasino_Royale said:
She is using the colloquial language of the everyday man or woman in provincial Britain.Pulpstar said:Hmm EU migrants haven't jumped any queue, more they had a right not to queue so to speak. I don't think it's a particularly racist remark though, more xenophobic perhaps.
No xenophobia is meant by it, nor by them either, and whilst it might make some painfully right-on urban professionals wince - who generally read far too much into language and look for motives that usually aren’t there - it is simply a British way of expressing the debate in terms of fair play.
EU nationals had an automatic right of free movement, others did not, so she simply wants to make it fair by applying the same rules to everyone.0 -
-
I didn’t say it was good. The other options are worse.Charles said:
The issue then is that the messaging isAlastairMeeks said:All options look implausible from here. One has to occur.
Trying to renegotiate looks more of a timewasting distraction to me than a second referendum. A second referendum, however, should not include a Deal option. Either Parliament blesses the deal or it is discarded. The public should not be expected to opine on 500 page documents but on concepts.
1. The voters told us to leave
2. MPs, who supported remain on the whole, discarded the deal that would let us leave in reasonably good order
3. Then asked the people to leave in disarray or change their mind
That’s an appalling message to send to democrats the world over0 -
The Tories have been chums with the nastiest of the nasty throughout the years , they are no better than Corbyn, just nastier.ydoethur said:
Without wishing to be an apologist for the House of Saud -malcolmg said:
Ydoethur , May's pals make that lot look like pussy cats.ydoethur said:
He is bumbling, and deluded, and a fool.malcolmg said:The lesser of two evils, Corbyn is a bumbling deluded fool, May is pure evil.
But he's also an unabashed supporter of and at times paid apologist for Russia, Venezuela, Iran, Hamas, the IRA and John McDonnell.
It is possible he's evil as well.
That remark is simply wrong.0 -
The DUP have calculated that a no-deal Brexit with no backstop kills the Good Friday Agreement. That is their goal and that explains their behaviour.0
-
She’s not nicknamed JBH for nothing.Pulpstar said:I found it fascinating that Hartley Brewer was not really in favour of gambling but yet in favour of a no deal Brexit on QT.
If that's not a gamble with the whole country I have no idea what is. Of course she's one of the media vox pops that'll be completely unaffected by no deal.0 -
The SNP's ex-leader is cuddling up well with the mouthpiece of not-at-all-nasty Putin ...malcolmg said:
The Tories have been chums with the nastiest of the nasty throughout the years , they are no better than Corbyn, just nastier.ydoethur said:
Without wishing to be an apologist for the House of Saud -malcolmg said:
Ydoethur , May's pals make that lot look like pussy cats.ydoethur said:
He is bumbling, and deluded, and a fool.malcolmg said:The lesser of two evils, Corbyn is a bumbling deluded fool, May is pure evil.
But he's also an unabashed supporter of and at times paid apologist for Russia, Venezuela, Iran, Hamas, the IRA and John McDonnell.
It is possible he's evil as well.
That remark is simply wrong.0 -
Good - your jokes are a [S]pain in the proverbials!ydoethur said:
But will anyone be found to Serbia when you get there?felix said:
Yup I'm off to Iceland this morning.ydoethur said:
You appear to be Hungary for more.felix said:
Except when they are Russing to judgement.ydoethur said:
The thing is, people never Czech them out properly.TheScreamingEagles said:
Some polls had Remain winning by 10%.HYUFD said:May's Deal if passed still leaves the EU and ends free movement and protects the economy and no EUref2 would therefore be required. In the event of her Deal being rejected twice or more by the Commons and we face the devastation of a No Deal scenario and the loss of manufacturing jobs and the exodus of factories and city forms abroad and shortage of food and potentially of medicines and riots in our cities and Scotland voting for independence and Northern Ireland for a United Ireland then EUref2 has to be on the cards and May knows that too hence she rightly now talks of 'no Brexit at all' if her Deal is rejected. Leave scraped a 52% win promising 'the easiest Deal in history' with the EU not the disaster of No Deal.
The evidence on the whole is also both Remain and May's Deal would beat No Deal.
Yougov has Remain beating No Deal by a comfortable 55% to 45% margin head to head.
http://uk.businessinsider.com/yougov-poll-voters-would-rather-remain-in-eu-than-accept-a-no-deal-brexit-2018-7
Ashcroft's poll yesterday had May's Deal beating No Deal head to head by a narrower but still clear margin of 7% with 34% preferring May's Deal and just 27% No Deal.
https://lordashcroftpolls.com/2018/11/my-new-brexit-poll-good-for-theresa-may-bad-for-her-deal/
Labour voters prefer the Deal to No Deal by 35% to 24%, LDs prefer the Deal to No Deal by a huge 54% to 11% margin and even Tory voters are equally split 35% for May's Deal and 35% for No Deal
Polls can be wrong.
Edit - apart from @Dura_Ace of course, whose remarks about the Polish prostitute and the Yorkshire terrier continue to haunt me.
I'm off as well. Have a good weekend.0 -
That is a bit harsh, you will give me a complexfelix said:
Except they are even littler and can't do sports.matt said:
To be fair and going by your posts, Little Scotlanders aren’t very different.malcolmg said:
Utter bollox , she was encouraging the xenophobic Little EnglandersCasino_Royale said:
She is using the colloquial language of the everyday man or woman in provincial Britain.Pulpstar said:Hmm EU migrants haven't jumped any queue, more they had a right not to queue so to speak. I don't think it's a particularly racist remark though, more xenophobic perhaps.
No xenophobia is meant by it, nor by them either, and whilst it might make some painfully right-on urban professionals wince - who generally read far too much into language and look for motives that usually aren’t there - it is simply a British way of expressing the debate in terms of fair play.
EU nationals had an automatic right of free movement, others did not, so she simply wants to make it fair by applying the same rules to everyone.0 -
Given the "abject humiliation" of a UK negotiating with a body six times its size, one wonders how Scot Nats think its going to go when Scotland negotiates with a country twelve times its size.....matt said:
To be fair and going by your posts, Little Scotlanders aren’t very different.malcolmg said:
Utter bollox , she was encouraging the xenophobic Little EnglandersCasino_Royale said:
She is using the colloquial language of the everyday man or woman in provincial Britain.Pulpstar said:Hmm EU migrants haven't jumped any queue, more they had a right not to queue so to speak. I don't think it's a particularly racist remark though, more xenophobic perhaps.
No xenophobia is meant by it, nor by them either, and whilst it might make some painfully right-on urban professionals wince - who generally read far too much into language and look for motives that usually aren’t there - it is simply a British way of expressing the debate in terms of fair play.
EU nationals had an automatic right of free movement, others did not, so she simply wants to make it fair by applying the same rules to everyone.0 -
Yes but how does that help May much? I think the effect is negligible.Pulpstar said:0 -
Cuckoo arrives and not yet spring, give us an anecdote about your best pal Erdogan nutty.JosiasJessop said:
The SNP's ex-leader is cuddling up well with the mouthpiece of not-at-all-nasty Putin ...malcolmg said:
The Tories have been chums with the nastiest of the nasty throughout the years , they are no better than Corbyn, just nastier.ydoethur said:
Without wishing to be an apologist for the House of Saud -malcolmg said:
Ydoethur , May's pals make that lot look like pussy cats.ydoethur said:
He is bumbling, and deluded, and a fool.malcolmg said:The lesser of two evils, Corbyn is a bumbling deluded fool, May is pure evil.
But he's also an unabashed supporter of and at times paid apologist for Russia, Venezuela, Iran, Hamas, the IRA and John McDonnell.
It is possible he's evil as well.
That remark is simply wrong.
0 -
One would hope rUK would negotiate with more strategic vision and flexibility than the EU have.CarlottaVance said:
Given the "abject humiliation" of a UK negotiating with a body six times its size, one wonders how Scot Nats think its going to go when Scotland negotiates with a country twelve times its size.....matt said:
To be fair and going by your posts, Little Scotlanders aren’t very different.malcolmg said:
Utter bollox , she was encouraging the xenophobic Little EnglandersCasino_Royale said:
She is using the colloquial language of the everyday man or woman in provincial Britain.Pulpstar said:Hmm EU migrants haven't jumped any queue, more they had a right not to queue so to speak. I don't think it's a particularly racist remark though, more xenophobic perhaps.
No xenophobia is meant by it, nor by them either, and whilst it might make some painfully right-on urban professionals wince - who generally read far too much into language and look for motives that usually aren’t there - it is simply a British way of expressing the debate in terms of fair play.
EU nationals had an automatic right of free movement, others did not, so she simply wants to make it fair by applying the same rules to everyone.0 -
It will also lead to a United Ireland as Northern Irish voters polled prefer a United Ireland to a hard border with the Republic, especially Catholics, unless Foster is ready to go full Iain Smith and declare UDI for Protestant Ulster?Rexel56 said:The DUP have calculated that a no-deal Brexit with no backstop kills the Good Friday Agreement. That is their goal and that explains their behaviour.
Ironically if she did and Northern Ireland left the UK GB might be able to get the Canada style FTA it has always wanted as Barnier has always offered that for GB but not Northern Ireland0 -
Eliza, when faced with an uncomfortable truth, it's best not to divert with an absolute lie.malcolmg said:
Cuckoo arrives and not yet spring, give us an anecdote about your best pal Erdogan nutty.JosiasJessop said:
The SNP's ex-leader is cuddling up well with the mouthpiece of not-at-all-nasty Putin ...malcolmg said:
The Tories have been chums with the nastiest of the nasty throughout the years , they are no better than Corbyn, just nastier.ydoethur said:
Without wishing to be an apologist for the House of Saud -malcolmg said:
Ydoethur , May's pals make that lot look like pussy cats.ydoethur said:
He is bumbling, and deluded, and a fool.malcolmg said:The lesser of two evils, Corbyn is a bumbling deluded fool, May is pure evil.
But he's also an unabashed supporter of and at times paid apologist for Russia, Venezuela, Iran, Hamas, the IRA and John McDonnell.
It is possible he's evil as well.
That remark is simply wrong.
Can you ask your drunken first-year programmers to get some help, as whilst you're patently artificial, there's precious little intelligence in your implementation.0 -
What's your solution? I'm content with deal being in a referendum but it is pointless since it would only occur after hundreds of Mps on both sides said it was crap.Charles said:
The issue then is that the messaging isAlastairMeeks said:All options look implausible from here. One has to occur.
Trying to renegotiate looks more of a timewasting distraction to me than a second referendum. A second referendum, however, should not include a Deal option. Either Parliament blesses the deal or it is discarded. The public should not be expected to opine on 500 page documents but on concepts.
1. The voters told us to leave
2. MPs, who supported remain on the whole, discarded the deal that would let us leave in reasonably good order
3. Then asked the people to leave in disarray or change their mind
That’s an appalling message to send to democrats the world over
No deal instead? Maybe it wont be as bad as People say i guess but what a gamble. GE is even more a distraction. There's no time to negotiate significantly and no incentive for the EU to do so.
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If May were toppled in a coup and replaced by a No Dealer (even if unlikely) I would not put it past Soubry, Wollaston, Grieve, Lee and Morgan to no confidence that hardline BrexiteerCharles said:
Despite what @HYUFD believes no sitting Tory MO will vote against the government, or abstain, in a VoNCCasino_Royale said:
It's quite hard for a VoNC to pass the HoC, even with the DUP playing silly buggers.alex. said:Re DUP. Govt might as well take them at their word about “no divergence” and introduce votes on the floor of the HoC over abortion and the education system.
It needs 323 MPS, not 326, as Sinn Fein don't take their seats. The Tories have 317 MPs plus the speaker.
Assuming all Tory MPs turn up and play ball, which they should, those last five or six MPs could be very interesting, particularly since there are several independent MPs right now, none of whom are fans of Corbyn and don't take a whip.0 -
That would be nice but i fear it is beyond politics to manage that.AlastairMeeks said:
One would hope rUK would negotiate with more strategic vision and flexibility than the EU have.CarlottaVance said:
Given the "abject humiliation" of a UK negotiating with a body six times its size, one wonders how Scot Nats think its going to go when Scotland negotiates with a country twelve times its size.....matt said:
To be fair and going by your posts, Little Scotlanders aren’t very different.malcolmg said:
Utter bollox , she was encouraging the xenophobic Little EnglandersCasino_Royale said:
She is using the colloquial language of the everyday man or woman in provincial Britain.Pulpstar said:Hmm EU migrants haven't jumped any queue, more they had a right not to queue so to speak. I don't think it's a particularly racist remark though, more xenophobic perhaps.
No xenophobia is meant by it, nor by them either, and whilst it might make some painfully right-on urban professionals wince - who generally read far too much into language and look for motives that usually aren’t there - it is simply a British way of expressing the debate in terms of fair play.
EU nationals had an automatic right of free movement, others did not, so she simply wants to make it fair by applying the same rules to everyone.0 -
They already are by actively voting down The deal. That dramatically increases the chance of remain.Pulpstar said:
Failing no deal they don't mind remain occurring but they'll do nothing to actively bring it about.Rexel56 said:The DUP have calculated that a no-deal Brexit with no backstop kills the Good Friday Agreement. That is their goal and that explains their behaviour.
0 -
Clarke potentially too.HYUFD said:
If May were toppled in a coup and replaced by a No Dealer (even if unlikely) I would not put it past Soubry, Wollaston, Grieve, Lee and Morgan to no confidence that hardline BrexiteerCharles said:
Despite what @HYUFD believes no sitting Tory MO will vote against the government, or abstain, in a VoNCCasino_Royale said:
It's quite hard for a VoNC to pass the HoC, even with the DUP playing silly buggers.alex. said:Re DUP. Govt might as well take them at their word about “no divergence” and introduce votes on the floor of the HoC over abortion and the education system.
It needs 323 MPS, not 326, as Sinn Fein don't take their seats. The Tories have 317 MPs plus the speaker.
Assuming all Tory MPs turn up and play ball, which they should, those last five or six MPs could be very interesting, particularly since there are several independent MPs right now, none of whom are fans of Corbyn and don't take a whip.0 -
Like that great Scot Andy Murray ?felix said:
Except they are even littler and can't do sports.matt said:
To be fair and going by your posts, Little Scotlanders aren’t very different.malcolmg said:
Utter bollox , she was encouraging the xenophobic Little EnglandersCasino_Royale said:
She is using the colloquial language of the everyday man or woman in provincial Britain.Pulpstar said:Hmm EU migrants haven't jumped any queue, more they had a right not to queue so to speak. I don't think it's a particularly racist remark though, more xenophobic perhaps.
No xenophobia is meant by it, nor by them either, and whilst it might make some painfully right-on urban professionals wince - who generally read far too much into language and look for motives that usually aren’t there - it is simply a British way of expressing the debate in terms of fair play.
EU nationals had an automatic right of free movement, others did not, so she simply wants to make it fair by applying the same rules to everyone.
(Or David Coulthard, or Jackie Stewart ... )0 -
As with her deal, May is the 'least worst' option - a Remainer/second referendum PM could just as easily be VONC by the ERGHYUFD said:
If May were toppled in a coup and replaced by a No Dealer (even if unlikely) I would not put it past Soubry, Wollaston, Grieve, Lee and Morgan to no confidence that hardline BrexiteerCharles said:
Despite what @HYUFD believes no sitting Tory MO will vote against the government, or abstain, in a VoNCCasino_Royale said:
It's quite hard for a VoNC to pass the HoC, even with the DUP playing silly buggers.alex. said:Re DUP. Govt might as well take them at their word about “no divergence” and introduce votes on the floor of the HoC over abortion and the education system.
It needs 323 MPS, not 326, as Sinn Fein don't take their seats. The Tories have 317 MPs plus the speaker.
Assuming all Tory MPs turn up and play ball, which they should, those last five or six MPs could be very interesting, particularly since there are several independent MPs right now, none of whom are fans of Corbyn and don't take a whip.0 -
Leavers would be in just as much a mood to punish Scotland for leaving the UK as the EU has been to punish the UK for leaving the EU.AlastairMeeks said:
One would hope rUK would negotiate with more strategic vision and flexibility than the EU have.CarlottaVance said:
Given the "abject humiliation" of a UK negotiating with a body six times its size, one wonders how Scot Nats think its going to go when Scotland negotiates with a country twelve times its size.....matt said:
To be fair and going by your posts, Little Scotlanders aren’t very different.malcolmg said:
Utter bollox , she was encouraging the xenophobic Little EnglandersCasino_Royale said:
She is using the colloquial language of the everyday man or woman in provincial Britain.Pulpstar said:Hmm EU migrants haven't jumped any queue, more they had a right not to queue so to speak. I don't think it's a particularly racist remark though, more xenophobic perhaps.
No xenophobia is meant by it, nor by them either, and whilst it might make some painfully right-on urban professionals wince - who generally read far too much into language and look for motives that usually aren’t there - it is simply a British way of expressing the debate in terms of fair play.
EU nationals had an automatic right of free movement, others did not, so she simply wants to make it fair by applying the same rules to everyone.
Plus ironically the harder Brexit gets and the more it looks like No Deal the greater the economic damage not only to the UK with its largest market, the EU but also potentially to an independent Scotland with its largest market, England0 -
Tory MPs are going around essentially calling each other traitors. The idea there's no chance a few of them might just say fuck it and vote against even at the cost of expulsion seems unwise. They are no longer a party they are a disorganised scrum at best.HYUFD said:
If May were toppled in a coup and replaced by a No Dealer (even if unlikely) I would not put it past Soubry, Wollaston, Grieve, Lee and Morgan to no confidence that hardline BrexiteerCharles said:
Despite what @HYUFD believes no sitting Tory MO will vote against the government, or abstain, in a VoNCCasino_Royale said:
It's quite hard for a VoNC to pass the HoC, even with the DUP playing silly buggers.alex. said:Re DUP. Govt might as well take them at their word about “no divergence” and introduce votes on the floor of the HoC over abortion and the education system.
It needs 323 MPS, not 326, as Sinn Fein don't take their seats. The Tories have 317 MPs plus the speaker.
Assuming all Tory MPs turn up and play ball, which they should, those last five or six MPs could be very interesting, particularly since there are several independent MPs right now, none of whom are fans of Corbyn and don't take a whip.0 -
Thatcher sent British forces to train the Khmer Rouge!malcolmg said:
The Tories have been chums with the nastiest of the nasty throughout the years , they are no better than Corbyn, just nastier.ydoethur said:
Without wishing to be an apologist for the House of Saud -malcolmg said:
Ydoethur , May's pals make that lot look like pussy cats.ydoethur said:
He is bumbling, and deluded, and a fool.malcolmg said:The lesser of two evils, Corbyn is a bumbling deluded fool, May is pure evil.
But he's also an unabashed supporter of and at times paid apologist for Russia, Venezuela, Iran, Hamas, the IRA and John McDonnell.
It is possible he's evil as well.
That remark is simply wrong.0 -
Exactly. The same applies with Corbyn too with the votersCarlottaVance said:
As with her deal, May is the 'least worst' option - a Remainer/second referendum PM could just as easily be VONC by the ERGHYUFD said:
If May were toppled in a coup and replaced by a No Dealer (even if unlikely) I would not put it past Soubry, Wollaston, Grieve, Lee and Morgan to no confidence that hardline BrexiteerCharles said:
Despite what @HYUFD believes no sitting Tory MO will vote against the government, or abstain, in a VoNCCasino_Royale said:
It's quite hard for a VoNC to pass the HoC, even with the DUP playing silly buggers.alex. said:Re DUP. Govt might as well take them at their word about “no divergence” and introduce votes on the floor of the HoC over abortion and the education system.
It needs 323 MPS, not 326, as Sinn Fein don't take their seats. The Tories have 317 MPs plus the speaker.
Assuming all Tory MPs turn up and play ball, which they should, those last five or six MPs could be very interesting, particularly since there are several independent MPs right now, none of whom are fans of Corbyn and don't take a whip.0 -
Which currency does an independent Scotland use ?0
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Mr. Jessop, on that note, it seems Lee McKenzie won't be doing any more F1 coverage after this weekend.
A shame. She, and Coulthard (and McNish before he departed) were excellent contributors to F1 coverage.0 -
The pound, and the Bank of England moves to Edinburgh, and Scottish people get free access to English public services but not vice versa Otherwise it's not really leaving. If England doesn't like it they're evil Nazis.Pulpstar said:Which currency does an independent Scotland use ?
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The U.K. can either maintain the full union of the four British nations under Westminster’s authority — or it can end freedom of movement, a key motivator for Leave voters worried about immigration. It can’t do both.
https://www.politico.eu/article/real-brexit-bill-northern-ireland-tories-civil-war/0 -
Cable and LDs really have struggled in the current climate, maybe it is the media (ie less on BBC QT) and maybe it is the party still reeling post 2015 but they need some magic and fast. I was hoping a byelelction may have perked things up but nothing doing,kle4 said:
Yes but how does that help May much? I think the effect is negligible.Pulpstar said:
They need a selling point and really need to get a grip on how it is sold0 -
People who talk about their political opponents as evil need to take a long hard look at themselves .0
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All anyone probably knows is they are for remain, but labour still get the nod over them there.swing_voter said:
Cable and LDs really have struggled in the current climate, maybe it is the media (ie less on BBC QT) and maybe it is the party still reeling post 2015 but they need some magic and fast. I was hoping a byelelction may have perked things up but nothing doing,kle4 said:
Yes but how does that help May much? I think the effect is negligible.Pulpstar said:
They need a selling point and really need to get a grip on how it is sold0